2011 Playoff Predictions

I don't think this is the year for the Steelers, but I never think it's their year.  I didn't think it was their year in 2005 or 2008 or 2010, but I totally thought it was their year in 1998 and 2006, so there's that.  Having said that, there are only four teams that scare me in both brackets.

In order of most scary to least scary:

1. The Saints (indoors)
2. Green Bay
3. Hated Ravens
4. New England

If I were a playoff team, those are, in order, the four teams I would not want to play.  I'm not saying that anyone else in the bracket is a pushover, I'm just saying those are the scary teams.  Given that New Orleans has zero chance of playing indoors throughout the postseason, I don't think they're going to make it.  If they somehow make it all the way to Indy, I feel sorry for the AFC team that has the misfortune of playing them in a dome.

On with the predictions.  Hopefully, I'll do slightly better than I did last year.  By "slightly better" I mean "not completely getting everything wrong and looking like an idiot."

AFC Bracket:

I know that TJ Yates has an injured shoulder and that the Texans backed into the playoffs.  I also know that it's his non-throwing shoulder and he's practiced all week.  Cincinnati didn't exactly storm into the playoffs.  They went 3-5 in the second half of the season.  They beat Arizona, Cleveland, and St. Louis.  They went 0-7 against playoff teams.  Houston wins this weekend and then has to travel to Baltimore, where they already lost convincingly way back when Matt Schaub was their quarterback.

I'd also like to take this opportunity to say that the Bengals really scare me.  They got AJ Green and Andy Dalton in this year's draft and they fleeced Oakland out of a bunch of picks in the Carson Palmer trade.  They scare me more than anyone in the AFC over the next five seasons, including the Patriots and hated Ravens.

The Texans have themselves an exceptional offensive line and a couple of great running backs.  They also have a solid defense, especially now that Wade Phillips is back on the sidelines.  But, they still have TJ Yates as their quarterback and that's not going to cut it against the Ben Roethlisbergers and Joe Flaccos and Tom Bradys of this bracket.

Football Jesus will also fall short against a real defense and a real quarterback, but that game is going to be ugly.  If I wasn't obligated to watch it, I think I would pass.  There are going to be bad passes, turnovers, failed red zone opportunities, and half the Steelers hobbling around with injuries.  It's going to end with someone winning 16-12 and I believe that someone is going to be the Steelers.

Houston travels to Baltimore and gets crushed.  The Steelers will have to go to Foxborough, where the Patriots are 0-2 in their last two postseason games.  I don't think that means that they just roll over and die.  The fact that they have Tom Brady and Bill Belichick and Wes Welker and two of the best tight ends in the NFL, plus a great offensive line, makes them dangerous in a single elimination tournament.  Since I know I'll be wrong anyway, I may as well pick the Steelers to go to New England and finally beat Tom Brady when it matters.

If the Steelers play the hated Ravens at any point in the playoffs, that's going to be Baltimore's Super Bowl.  They're going to go all out and they will not allow themselves to lose.  If the hated Ravens need to go to Foxborough, I think they still win.  They have the best individual athlete in the AFC bracket (Ray Rice) and the best defense.  They have a veteran roster that is loaded with postseason experience.  They used the offseason and regular season to prepare themselves for this run.  They will beat anyone that stands in their way, even the Steelers.

You know who says it's tough to beat a team three times in one season?  Teams that already lost twice.  It's hard to beat any team once, especially when that team is a playoff team.  The fact that you already beat them twice only gives you confidence.  It also gives you film that you can look at and say, "Oh, yeah.  That's how we beat those guys the other two times.  Let's do that again."

As much as it pains me to type this, the Hated Baltimore Ravens will be your AFC representative in this year's Super Bowl.  Now for the NFC...

NFC Bracket:


If the road to the Super in the NFC went through the Super Dome, the Saints would play in -- and win -- Super Bowl XLVI.  But, they have to go outdoors and the non-dome version of the Saints don't scare me.  I think that they crush Detroit at home on Saturday, but I think they fold outside the friendly confines of their dome in San Francisco.

The 49ers are a great team, but they're not a championship team.  They're too conservative, too unreliable when they get inside the 20, and Alex Smith is their quarterback.  Smith has done a good job of making the right decisions and not turning the ball over, but he's not going to be able to cut it when he has to throw down against Aaron Rodgers and an opportunistic Packers defense.

Eli Manning is a great story and the Giants have a lot of playoff experience, but that only goes so far when it comes to bridging the talent gap.  Atlanta has Matty Ice, a still-feisty Michael Turner, and an explosive offense.  They don't play enough defense to win it all, though.  The Falcons traded away their future to get Julio Jones and make it to the next level, but I don't think they've done enough to get past Green Bay.

For a 15-1 team, the Packers aren't a prohibitive favorite.  One of the reasons people are down on Green Bay is because they finished dead last in total defense in terms of yardage allowed.  But, they finished 14th in points allowed and first in total points.  When it comes down to it, they have an aggressive bend-don't-break defense and an incredibly efficient offense.  They also have the best quarterback in the bracket in Rodgers.

Atlanta beats New York, New Orleans beats Detroit, San Francisco beats New Orleans, Green Bay beats Atlanta, Packers beat 49ers to advance to the Super Bowl.

That means it'll be a Packers-Hated Ravens Super Bowl and I'm not sure who I'll root for.  The old adage is that defense wins championships.  That will be put to the test this postseason.  Will the Packers be the first team to finish last in total defense but still win the Super Bowl?  Will Baltimore have enough on defense to slow Green Bay down?  I'm really not sure.

My gut feeling is that the hated Ravens protect the ball well enough to not make key mistakes against the Packers.  I think they score enough points and play well enough on defense that they can win a close game.

It pains me even more to say this, but...

Predictions:

AFC Playoffs:
Houston over Cincinnati
Steelers over Denver
Baltimore over Houston
Steelers over Patriots
Baltimore over Steelers

NFC Playoffs:
Saints over Lions
Falcons over Giants
Packers over Falcons
49ers over Saints
Packers over 49ers

Super Bowl:
Hated Ravens over Packers

Handicapping the Wild Card Round

After my resounding victory in NFL Pick Em this season, I've decided to pick each round of the postseason against the spread.  This is a more challenging way to do things, but I have confidence in my abilities.  Onto the picks (home team in CAPS)...

HOUSTON (-3) over Cincinnati:
I thought this line was going to go down when it opened, because so many people were going to take the Bengals in an upset.  It hasn't moved since it opened at 3, but you should still take it as soon as you can in case the Mighty Ginger's mysterious "illness" starts to swing it towards the Texans.  If the line moves to 3.5 or, even worse, 4, then it's not worth it.  This is a textbook 21-17 or 27-23 or 28-24 game.  At four points, it's a push.  At three points, it's easy money.

In the playoffs, it's all about quarterback play.  Cincinnati has the edge there, but the Texans have the edge everywhere else, including the fact that they're playing at home.  The over/under on this one is surprisingly low (38.5), but I think that Vegas is thinking that two solid defenses will keep this game low scoring.

My feeling is that it will unfold like Super Bowl XXXVIII between the Panthers and the Patriots.  Both teams will start out conservative and try to feel each other out, then they'll come out swinging in the second half.  If the first half ends 10-7, don't panic.  They'll make up for it in the second half.

NEW ORLEANS (-10.5) over Detroit:
I tried to talk my way into picking the Lions.  I really did.  That line is HUGE and Detroit is a solid team.  The Saints play crappy defense.  But, really, I'd need a 15-17 point line to pick against the Saints at home.  They're just unstoppable.

NOLA's margins of victory at home this season: 17, 7, 55, 11, 25, 14 (against Detroit), 29, 28.  They're 8-0 at home, there's only one game on that list where they wouldn't have covered, and they already covered that spread against the Lions earlier this season.

I know that the over is 58.5 and that's a ridiculous number.  But... total points in the eight games this season in the Super Dome: 43, 73, 69, 43, 73, 48, 63, 62.  That's five out of eight total games and three out of the last four.  They might hit the Over by halftime.

Atlanta (+3) over NY GIANTS:
New York is 4-4 at home and they're shaky as hell.  I think the Falcons cover and win outright, so take the moneyline at +136.

These are two high-flying offenses and two teams that don't play a lot of defense.  An over/under of 47 actually seems a bit low.  I see the Falcons winning this one 34-20 or so.

DENVER (+9) over Steelers:
Don't get me wrong.  I think the Steelers win this one.  I just think that, whoever came up with this line, they didn't watch the Steelers play the past month or so.  With an ailing Ben Roethlisberger behind center, I find it hard to believe that the Steelers will score enough to cover this spread, regardless of where the game is played.

This strikes me as another grinding 13-9 or 14-10 or 16-13 victory for the Black and Gold.  I think they win, but I don't think they roll.  And take the Under, even though total points is an extremely low 34.