AFC Bracket:
The Chiefs really screwed me up by losing in Week 17. I was absolutely certain that they would be able to beat the Jets and the Colts own the hated Ravens, so that would send Indianapolis to New England and the Chiefs here. Kansas City, with a shaky defense, a solid running game, and only one receiver of any consequence, would lose to the Steelers at home and the Colts might upset the Patriots, in which case the Steelers would beat Indy and go to the Super Bowl.
But, the only outcome that scared me was having to play the Jets in the Divisional Round and that was taken care of. I guess that was maybe taken care of when the hated Ravens kept winning, New York had a couple of bad games late, and the hated Ravens won the Week 1 head-to-head match-up with the Jets, but so be it.
Here's the thing: I still think the Chiefs will beat the hated Ravens, which means they'll be the highest seeded team, which means they'll be coming to Pittsburgh on January 15th. The Ravens always struggle when they're facing a hot running team and there's that one guy that they need to stop. Kansas City is decent against the run and their big weakness on defense is against the deep pass, which the hated Ravens appear to have taken out of their playbook.
Well, the Chiefs are headed to Pittsburgh because I think the Jets are going to beat the Colts. I think the world of Peyton Manning, but his offensive line is average at best, his receivers are banged up, and New York has basically been playing out the string all year to get to the playoffs where the games really matter. Either that or they're a bunch of immature drama queens who don't always play hard. The point is that they're the more talented teams and talent tends to prevail unless your quarterback is a total dud, which I don't think Mark Sanchez is.
So, Jets beat Colts, Chiefs beat hated Ravens. Jets lose to Patriots (most likely) and Steelers beat Chiefs.
That sets up an AFC Championship game that we've seen before and we've seen how the movie ends when Tom Brady is involved. If someone, somehow knocks off the Patriots, then the Steelers go to the Super Bowl. If the Steelers need to go through Foxboro to get to Dallas... well, their season ends in Foxboro.
I also think that the Steelers win in the Divisional Round no matter who they play -- Colts, hated Ravens, or Chiefs -- because they match up too well against every team that they could play. They can beat any team in this side of the bracket in the Divisional Round except the Jets and the Patriots. But, if it comes down to Jets-Steelers for the AFC title, I have a feeling that experience, talent, guile, the fact that Heath will be back for that game, and homefield advantage will take over.
Ultimately, Steelers lose to Patriots in the AFC Championship game (again) and New England goes to yet another Super Bowl. I would like to pick the Steelers to win that game. I really would. But, in the last ten years or so, it's been like the 70s. The Patriots were the Steelers, the Steelers were Oakland, and the Colts were the Team That Went to the Super Bowl if the Steelers or Raiders Weren't Involved. Hey, I would love it if I were wrong. In the 80s, the Steelers took a major nosedive and the Raiders won two Super Bowls. I would be fine with that. I'm just saying I need to see it before I believe it.
NFC Bracket:
I have zero faith in the Seahawks. They were 7-9 in the regular season, got outscored by 97 points, and somehow went 4-2 in the worst division in football. The line for the Saints-Seahawks game has the Saints favored by 11 and I took the Saints.
I think Philly has enough talent to beat Green Bay. The Packers have Aaron Rodgers and a good defense. That's it. Philly is banged up -- well, both teams are banged up -- but they also have Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, and LeSean McCoy, three of the most dangerous players in the bracket. That's too many weapons and too much talent to ignore in a postseason where talent means everything.
Philly beats Green Bay, New Orleans beats Seattle.
That sends the Saints to Atlanta, where Matt Ryan is 20-2. Well, guess what? One of those losses was to Drew Brees and the Saints and it happened very recently. The Falcons strike me as a Cowher/Schottenheimer team that is very talented, very good at what they do, and very capable of winning a bunch of games that they should win, therefore getting seeded way too high for their talent level. They have one player -- Roddy White -- that can break a game open. They have an average-to-good defense. They have Mike Smith as their coach. From a quarterback, coach, and scheme standpoint, Atlanta-New Orleans is a match-up that highly favors the Saints. For that reason, I think the Falcons are the second least likely team to reach the Super Bowl, despite the fact that they are the number one seed in the NFC.
I actually have a lot of faith in Chicago and I think they are a good team that hasn't gotten their due.
I am going to pick Philly based on two things:
- The Eagles are more talented and explosive and that's what wins playoff games.
- I hate Jay Cutler's face. Every time I see him, I want to punch him. I can't explain it. I understand that I am possibly letting my emotions get the best of me, but I hate his face. I can't pick Jay Cutler to go to the NFC Championship game.
That means I think the Patriots and Saints will go to Super Bowl XLV. I was way off last year -- pretty sure I picked Chargers-Vikings -- and predictions have sucked historically, but that's what I think.
Predictions:
AFC Playoffs:
Jets over Colts
Chiefs over hated Ravens
Patriots over Jets
Steelers over Chiefs
Patriots over Steelers
NFC Playoffs:
Saints over Seahawks
Eagles over Packers
Saints over Falcons
Eagles over Bears
Saints over Eagles
Super Bowl:
Patriots over Saints
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