The only thing that makes me nervous about this game is that I'm not nervous about this game.
It's not that I think the hated Ravens are a bad team. I think they are a very good team that has the potential to be great, or even dominant.
It's not that I think the Steelers are supremely awesome and will easily handle any team that is simply only very good. I think the Steelers are a very good team that has the potential to be great, or even dominant.
The hated Ravens finished 12-4 on the regular season, but they really didn't beat anyone. They beat the Jets, but that was Week 1. They beat the Saints, which counts as a quality win. They beat the Steelers, but they also lost to the Steelers.
The Steelers finished 12-4 on the regular season, but they really didn't beat anyone. They beat the Falcons, but that was Week 1. They beat the hated Ravens, but they also lost to the hated Ravens.
The hated Ravens key off their stifling defense, which includes many explosive playmakers that can change the game with one play. They seek to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, stop the run, and wear the other team down with their running game, though they haven't run the ball especially well this season. They have a top-flight quarterback -- even if he has a tragic unibrow -- and several talented, accomplished receivers. When they're forcing turnovers on defense and in a rhythm on offense, they're pretty much unstoppable.
The Steelers key off their stifling defense, which includes many explosive playmakers that can change the game with one play. They seek to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, stop the run, and wear the other team down with their running game, though they haven't run the ball especially well this season. They have a top-flight quarterback... wait. Didn't I just say that?
I spent most of the season privately dismissing the hated Ravens, but knowing they were a very good team and would win a lot of games, which would result in a playoff berth. I spent all season -- and all week -- thinking that the hated Ravens could not beat the Steelers because the Steelers were the better team. I ultimately realized that the hated Ravens are the Steelers. These two teams are basically a wash.
They split during the regular season, with each team winning on the road. They played two games and ended up at a 27-27 tie. This is the tiebreaker.
The popular thinking is to "throw the records out" when two rivals like this play, but why would you want to throw this season's records out? They were both 12-4.
The Steelers have homefield advantage, but they lost to the hated Ravens at Heinz Field earlier this season and are only 5-3 at home. The only advantage for the Steelers in this game is that they had an extra week to rest up and get healthy. The hated Ravens don't have an injuries of note, though, so they might actually have the advantage in that they're not rusty. I'm not a big believer in rust -- if you're an accountant and you go on vacation for a week, you don't forget what debits and credits are and you may actually be more productive after having spent a relaxing week getting away from it all while the other accountants were busy being stressed out and crunching numbers -- but if it is a factor, the hated Ravens hold the advantage.
If these teams are so even, why am I not worried?
Because I think this game comes down to Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Flacco, which is a situation where you don't throw the records out the window. The Steelers defense has owned Flacco and he has a career 78 quarterback rating against them. He's 2-5 lifetime against the Steelers (including playoffs) and those two wins came against Dennis Dixon in 2009 and Charlie Batch earlier this season.
Roethlisberger is 8-3 against the hated Ravens (including playoffs) for his career and this time he doesn't have a broken nose and a broken foot. I think that it will be a close game, but I don't think that the hated Ravens will win it. Either Flacco will commit a fatal mistake or Roethlisberger will make a game changing play or both. It's usually the first one, then the second, but I'm flexible.
I'm still excited for the game. I still can't wait for it to start. I kinda can't wait for it to be over. But I'm not nervous.
And that worries me.
Prediction:
Steelers 20, Hated Ravens 13
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