NFC Championship Game Preview

Let me get this out in the open right off the bat: I hate Jay Cutler's face. He looks like the bastard love child of Billy Zabka and William Atherton. Every time I see him, I want to punch him in the face. Usually, Ray Lewis or Tom Brady need to do something to make me want to punch them in the face. Not Jay Cutler. He just needs to have a face.

I desperately do not want to see his face for the next two weeks, but I still think the Bears are going to win Sunday's NFC Championship game.

I'm aware of the fact that the Packers are favored by 3.5 points to win this game. If you get three points for playing at home, that means Green Bay would be 6.5 point favorites at a neutral site. I have difficulty believing that the Packers are a touchdown better than the Bears and I'm sure they do, too.

On Wednesday, I was convinced that the Bears were going to win this game. Then I started reading a bunch of stuff online about how the Packers were going to win. I started to re-think things. Then I realized that I truly believed Chicago was going to win.

I think that everyone is a little too high on the Packers after they beat a banged up, undercoached Philly team, then trounced an overrated Falcons team. I think they beat two consecutive opponents that were as unbalanced as they were. Those teams just weren't able to strike at the weaknesses of this Green Bay team. The Bears will be able to do that.

I think everyone believes that Aaron Rodgers is far more invincible than he is. He's not going to come close to the 31-for-36 performance that he put up in the Divisional round because the Chicago defense will not let him.

I think that the Packers won't be able to run the ball against a Bears defense that finished second in the league.

I think that Aaron Rodgers will have a tough time against an underrated Chicago pass defense. The Bears basically held Rodgers in check this season and they won't let him take over this game.

I think the Chicago front four is going to take over this game. The Bears run a Cover 2 defense. When the Cover 2 defense is working, the front four either sacks the quarterback or forces him to check down. Rodgers does not want to check down. In the game against Atlanta, he wanted to score on every drive. That kind of drive helps you when you're up 35-14, but it hurts you when you're trying to slowly pick apart a defense that's hitting you on every dropback. Rodgers will want to throw a 105 yard touchdown pass on every play, but the Bears defense will pressure him and take away the big play. In order to beat this defense, he is going to need to slowly, methodically pick them apart like Peyton Manning did in Super Bowl XLI. I don't think he has that patience. He's going to flinch before this defense does and that is going to work in Chicago's favor.

On the offensive side for the Bears, the Packers have a great defense. I think the Bears can wear them down in the running game and that Jay Cutler will not make the critical mistake. I think that Mike Martz is finally on the same page with Cutler and has managed to eliminate his weaknesses (bad decisions, poor throws) and maximize his strengths (great arm, good vision). Martz will set Cutler up to succeed and do his best to insure that Cutler will not fail.

Chicago won the last meeting between these teams at Soldier Field and they hung in there when they had nothing to play for -- Lovie Smith kept his starters in -- and Green Bay barely won 10-3 when they had everything to play for.

Basically, this game is a wash. It should come down to coaching, luck, and special teams.

In terms of coaching, the odds are even. Mike McCarthy is hardly a master, but neither is Smith.

When it comes to luck, the Bears should have lost their Week 1 game against Detroit, which would have changed their whole season. They should have had to play the Eagles or the Saints in the Divisional round, which would have changed things, but they played the Seahawks. They haven't had a lot of injuries, which have plagued the Packers.

They have a HUGE edge in special teams, having won the first game in this series on a return touchdown.

Offense and defense are a wash, but they hold a two to one edge in intangibles. Add in that this game will be played in Chicago, the fans will be fired up, and the players will know the playing surface (which should be slick) and it makes sense that the Bears should win.

Prediction:
Bears 23, Packers 20