NFC Championship Game Preview

Let me get this out in the open right off the bat: I hate Jay Cutler's face. He looks like the bastard love child of Billy Zabka and William Atherton. Every time I see him, I want to punch him in the face. Usually, Ray Lewis or Tom Brady need to do something to make me want to punch them in the face. Not Jay Cutler. He just needs to have a face.

I desperately do not want to see his face for the next two weeks, but I still think the Bears are going to win Sunday's NFC Championship game.

I'm aware of the fact that the Packers are favored by 3.5 points to win this game. If you get three points for playing at home, that means Green Bay would be 6.5 point favorites at a neutral site. I have difficulty believing that the Packers are a touchdown better than the Bears and I'm sure they do, too.

On Wednesday, I was convinced that the Bears were going to win this game. Then I started reading a bunch of stuff online about how the Packers were going to win. I started to re-think things. Then I realized that I truly believed Chicago was going to win.

I think that everyone is a little too high on the Packers after they beat a banged up, undercoached Philly team, then trounced an overrated Falcons team. I think they beat two consecutive opponents that were as unbalanced as they were. Those teams just weren't able to strike at the weaknesses of this Green Bay team. The Bears will be able to do that.

I think everyone believes that Aaron Rodgers is far more invincible than he is. He's not going to come close to the 31-for-36 performance that he put up in the Divisional round because the Chicago defense will not let him.

I think that the Packers won't be able to run the ball against a Bears defense that finished second in the league.

I think that Aaron Rodgers will have a tough time against an underrated Chicago pass defense. The Bears basically held Rodgers in check this season and they won't let him take over this game.

I think the Chicago front four is going to take over this game. The Bears run a Cover 2 defense. When the Cover 2 defense is working, the front four either sacks the quarterback or forces him to check down. Rodgers does not want to check down. In the game against Atlanta, he wanted to score on every drive. That kind of drive helps you when you're up 35-14, but it hurts you when you're trying to slowly pick apart a defense that's hitting you on every dropback. Rodgers will want to throw a 105 yard touchdown pass on every play, but the Bears defense will pressure him and take away the big play. In order to beat this defense, he is going to need to slowly, methodically pick them apart like Peyton Manning did in Super Bowl XLI. I don't think he has that patience. He's going to flinch before this defense does and that is going to work in Chicago's favor.

On the offensive side for the Bears, the Packers have a great defense. I think the Bears can wear them down in the running game and that Jay Cutler will not make the critical mistake. I think that Mike Martz is finally on the same page with Cutler and has managed to eliminate his weaknesses (bad decisions, poor throws) and maximize his strengths (great arm, good vision). Martz will set Cutler up to succeed and do his best to insure that Cutler will not fail.

Chicago won the last meeting between these teams at Soldier Field and they hung in there when they had nothing to play for -- Lovie Smith kept his starters in -- and Green Bay barely won 10-3 when they had everything to play for.

Basically, this game is a wash. It should come down to coaching, luck, and special teams.

In terms of coaching, the odds are even. Mike McCarthy is hardly a master, but neither is Smith.

When it comes to luck, the Bears should have lost their Week 1 game against Detroit, which would have changed their whole season. They should have had to play the Eagles or the Saints in the Divisional round, which would have changed things, but they played the Seahawks. They haven't had a lot of injuries, which have plagued the Packers.

They have a HUGE edge in special teams, having won the first game in this series on a return touchdown.

Offense and defense are a wash, but they hold a two to one edge in intangibles. Add in that this game will be played in Chicago, the fans will be fired up, and the players will know the playing surface (which should be slick) and it makes sense that the Bears should win.

Prediction:
Bears 23, Packers 20

NFC North Predictions

Here's my predictions for how the division will shake out, last to first:

Green Bay Packers:

Let me say this first: The only thing I know for sure is that Chicago's winning this division. Even if Griese and Grossman get hurt. They won enough games with that Purdue rummy with the neck beard last year (yes, I do know his name is Kyle Orton). This division has three new coaches. News flash: There are 4 teams in the NFC North. The only team without a coaching change? YOUR 2006 CHICAGO BEARS!

I put Green Bay here, even though I think they're three wins better than they were last year. But, they finished last year 4-12. So there's that. I think Favre's too old to be the gunslinger we all know and love. I think he has another 20+ INT season (although if he's still there in the 10th round of my Fantasy draft, I'm taking him). Their offensive line still hasn't recovered from all the free agent defections of 2005 and they just might open the season with Sakmon Gado as their starting tailback.

And Mike McCarthy, the coordinator of 2005's worst offense is calling the plays. And they lost Jim Bates. And their defense is too young and I don't trust their DBs. In three years, watch out. This year? Don't keep the unrefrigerated cheese out between wins.

Detroit Lions:

I know I already said Chicago was winning the division and I already picked the other two teams, so you're wondering how the hell I have a voice on the Internet given the fact that I expect the division to end up the same in 2006 as it did in 2005. Well, this is a free blog. Talk to me when you're paying for it.

I love Rod Marinelli for this job. They needed a disciplinarian. Marty Mohrningwhig (or however you spell it) wasn't the answer. Ditto Steve Mariucci (I think I spelled that one right). Marinelli and Martz maybe football's equivalent of Oscar and Felix, but they're going to get the job done. Eventually.

Hey, at least Motor City hosted the Super Bowl last season! There's a winner of a choice. Well done, NFL. Choose the one place the boogey man won't take a connecting flight out of to host the biggest event you hold all year. But, the Steelers won. The Super Bowl. I mentioned that, right?

Minnesota Vikings:

One big reason the Vikings won't win the division. They have a new coach. And too many new faces. And a defense that still doesn't scare me in a division where the offense needs to be as scary as Dakota Fanning in eye make-up (which isn't scary to me, but suit yourself. If you want to be scared of both those things, well... let's move on). Brad Johnson retired in 1998 and no one told him. His right arm retired in 1996. Their featured back couldn't unseat a crippled ex-con last year.

Yes. That was more than one reason. But, they won 9 games last year. And, I have a feeling that, with all the talent on the roster, the right systems eventually sinking into the minds of all the new faces, and what is still a weak division (did I mention there are THREE new coaches), the Vikings can pull 9 wins out of their collective G-strings again and cruise into the off-season. Barely missing the playoffs.

Chicago Bears:

It's okay, Bears fans. You can breathe. You return everyone from a suffocating defense (admit it, deep down you knew Mike Brown was gonna get hurt). Rex Grossman has not yet broken his leg tripping over his own shadow. And Angelo finally hired a capable back-up in Brian Griese. And, if all else fails, you've got... Kyle... Orton.

Your receivers are good enough. Your offensive line is awesome. You still don't have a tight end (by the way, in a tight end rich draft, WHAT THE HELL WAS UP WITH PICKING 4 CONSECUTIVE DEFENSIVE GUYS WITH THE FIRST FOUR PICKS?!?!?!?!) You have Thomas Jones and Cedrick Benson.

And you have the toughest man named Lovie to ever prowl the sidelines. As a side note, how humiliating must it be for a losing coach to come up to Smith and say, "Good game, Lovie. You really got us." Kinda like when we got torched by Kelly Holcomb in the 2002 Wild Card game. I was excited that we won, but then I thought, "We got burned for 429 yards by someone named Kelly? KELLY?!?!? Tennessee is gonna murder us." And they did.

The moral of the story? Chicago's the only good team in this division and they get to play everyone else twice. They win.