Super Bowl Thoughts

I don't have a prediction yet. I am still thinking about it. There is still a lot to consider and it's not until next Sunday, so I've got time. You wouldn't know it by how wrong most of them are, but I put a lot of thought into the previews and predictions, so I guess we'll just have to wait.

In the meantime, here are some thoughts...

1. The more I think about it, the more upset I am that the Steelers didn't put Aaron Smith on injured reserve when he got hurt. Most of the time, that's a season-ending injury. He tore a muscle last season, too, so more football action and rushing him back certainly couldn't help the situation. I keep thinking that, even if they thought he was going to be available for the first playoff game and could reach the playoffs without him, having him partly healthy for the first playoff game and then completely healthy -- with a risk of him getting hurt again -- for the rest of the playoffs isn't worth that roster spot. If they had put Smith on IR and used that roster spot to sign a special teams guy, the coverage units would have been better this season. That would've helped the team win more games. That would make them a better team, with a more experienced special teams player, heading into the Super Bowl. Now that it looks like he might not play in the Super Bowl and will only be in for 10-15 plays even if he does see action, it's an even bigger waste. I know that no one knew how long this was going to take to heal when he got hurt, but shouldn't the fact that an optimistic timetable for recovery was "January some time" been enough for the Steelers to reserve him and free up that roster spot? I like Smith and I think he is a great player, but I don't think 10-15 plays in a Super Bowl is worth the several games of contribution from a player they could have signed after they reserved him.
2. I think one of the biggest edges the Steelers have in this game is coaching. I know that I have a huge man-crush on Tomlin and I tend to over value him, but he's also won three division titles in four years and is coaching in his second Super Bowl in that time, so maybe he's pretty good. I don't think Mike McCarthy is a bad coach. I think he's a very good coach as a matter of fact. He pulled the Packers through an up-and-down season with a ton of injuries and a bunch of tough losses and has them in the Super Bowl. He's an exceptional play caller. But, I just get the sense that he's more of a play caller and a cheerleader and Tomlin is an actual leader. I think he has a cooler head, a plan in mind, and the complete trust of his players. I think he will make the right decisions with the game on the line. I can't say all those things about McCarthy. Given that these are two very similar teams and the talent on both sides is awfully close, an edge like this becomes bigger when the game starts.
3. The line hasn't moved. It's still Packers by 2.5. Maybe everyone was holding their money until they got more information. Maybe they were waiting to see what would happen with Pouncey -- now that his ankle is broken, not strained, I'm going to go out on a limb and say he's not playing. Maybe it will move next week. But, if it hasn't moved yet, it's not going to move enough to be a push by the time kickoff happens. It may get down to one point, but I kind of doubt that, too. The more I think about it, the more I think it will move to three or four points by the time the game starts. I think that no one's sure about the Steelers, but they seem confident in the Packers and the fact that they've actually been more consistent this season. They have six losses, but none of them were by more than four points. A break here or a break there and they could've won more games. If Aaron Rodgers doesn't get hurt against Detroit, maybe they win that game and even beat New England the following week.
4. That having been said, all of the Steeler fans I've talked to are confident and only moderately worried. I haven't gotten a prediction yet that has the Packers winning. I haven't even heard, "I think it's going to be an ugly game, but I think we find a way to win." Everyone sees a close game, with the Steelers winning by a touchdown or less, but everyone also sees the Steelers winning. Now, obviously I haven't asked any Packers fans for their thoughts because I don't know any Packers fans. They would most likely have different answers and compelling arguments for why their team is going to win. That's one of the reasons that I haven't wrapped my brain around this game just yet. There are too many solid arguments on both sides for either team to win or lose.
5. The one thing that I keep thinking about is this: It's entirely possible that Aaron Rodgers could get knocked out of this game. He's had two concussions this season and he's not going to be able to "walk it off" if he gets another one in this game. I'm not saying that anyone on the Steelers should try to hurt him, but I think it's possible that he gets hurt. If that happens, then the Steelers definitely win. I do not fear Matt Flynn (that's Rodgers' back-up in case you didn't know... the only reason I knew is because I had Rodgers on two of my Fantasy teams this season).