Friday, January 06, 2012

Tebowlicious: Steelers at Broncos Preview:

I am becoming more and more worried and pessimistic about this game as the days go by.  When I heard that the Broncos won the AFC West by losing, I was ecstatic.  It meant that the Steelers would have a chance to dismantle and humiliate Football Jesus and I'm all about the schadenfreude (holy crap, schadenfreude was in the spell check dictionary).

I wasn't overly concerned about the fact that Rashard Mendenhall got placed on IR and I was convinced that Ben Roethlisberger's ankle would only improve, so long as he could continue to just walk it off and/or rub some dirt in it.

Now that we're about 48 hours from kickoff, I'm more than a little nervous, since Ryan Clark can't play, Pouncey has been ruled out, Roethlisberger suffered a setback in the Cleveland game (still listed as probable, though), Polamalu and Harrison haven't practiced this week (somehow listed as probable), Mewelde Moore is out, and Keisel missed two practices this week.  My guess is that, since this is the playoffs, everyone that hasn't been ruled out is going to play.  But, how well will they play in the thin air at Mile High Stadium Presented by Sports Authority?  How limited will they be?

Also, running backs coach Kirby Wilson was badly burned when a fire broke out in his kitchen.  At least Lamarr Woodley looks like he's ready to go, so that's a silver lining.

When I found out the Steelers were going to be playing in Denver, I was looking forward to a pretty easy win.  Then I remembered that the offense seems to have peaked at 13 points a game ever since Roethlisberger hurt his ankle.  Then I remembered that it was a road game and the Broncos play tough at home.  Then everyone got hurt and guys started dropping off and becoming unavailable for the game.  This morning, an assistant coach got burned in a house fire.  There are a lot of bad omens surrounding this game.  This game is officially making me very nervous.

Having said all that, I stand by my Wild Card prediction.  This is going to be an ugly, stupid game.  It will not end quickly.  I will not enjoy it.  Denver will cover and you should take the under (even though it dropped to 33.5), but they will not win outright.

Here's why: The Steelers have destroyed bad quarterbacks all season and Tim Tebow is a bad quarterback.  It doesn't matter what stat you use: quarterback rating (72.9), QBR (30.5), or QBERT (6.385).  He has only 1,729 yards passing in 11 starts, his completion percentage is atrocious (46.5%), and he's been sacked 33 times.  He's also fumbled 13 times.  I know that he's 7-4 and that he's money in the fourth quarter, but I also know that more accurate passers with better numbers still struggled to put up even respectable numbers against the Steeler pass defense.

The more accurate/better numbers list includes: Tavaris Jackson, Kevin Kolb, Blaine Gabbert, Curtis Painter, Colt McCoy, Seneca Wallace, Kellen Clemens (OK, that one's debatable, he may be a less gifted passer than Tebow), and Tyler Palko.  Those guys combined to score 74 points on the Pittsburgh defense and 40 of those points came from Curtis Painter and Kevin Kolb.

They should be able to focus on Willis McGahee and contain him.  They have the personnel in the secondary to switch off between the Cover 3 looks that Buffalo used to stop Tebow and the man coverage looks the Patriots and Chiefs used.  They just need to remember to stay focused and stay on their man when they switch away from zone coverage.  Tebow was able to burn the Vikings secondary for a couple of long touchdowns because the defensive backs were too focused on him and forgot to stay on their man.  I can see Troy Polamalu making that mistake and Ryan Clark won't be there to cover Troy's mistakes.  Then again, pretty much every quarterback in the league was able to burn the Vikings secondary this season, so maybe it just boils down to Tebow not being very good.

The point is that the Steelers shouldn't need to score much to win this game.  They won't score much, either, which is why you should take the under.

Just remember: A win's a win.

Prediction:
Steelers 13, Broncos 9

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