Monday, January 02, 2012

Good News and Bad News: Steelers at Browns

Good News first:

  1. I am bound by international law to state that a win is a win.
  2. Hines Ward got his 1,000th reception, becoming only the eighth player in NFL history to reach that milestone.  It's an impressive accomplishment and I think that solidifies him as a Hall of Fame player.  He's got the rings and the reputation, he just needed the stats.  Now, the 1,000th reception itself was definitely a cheesy call and they've been feeding him easy catches the last few weeks, but I don't think that taints the accomplishment at all.  He earned the other 990 or so receptions and he deserves to have his name up there with the all time greats.
  3. I think Ike Taylor was snubbed for the Pro Bowl.  I also think the secondary as a whole is playing at a very high level.  The front seven hasn't been getting as much pressure this season with Woodley and Harrison missing a lot of time, which also makes it so that Lawrence Timmons and James Farrior need to spend more time in coverage.  In past seasons, the front seven bailed the secondary out by generating pressure on the quarterback.  This season, the secondary bailed the front seven out in a big way.  I know that Seneca Wallace isn't exactly Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers, but he was held to 171 yards on 41 attempts (4.3 yards per attempt) with only 16 completions, no touchdowns, and an interception.  The defense in general has been destroying average quarterbacks all season and they held Andy Dalton and Tom Brady in check.  If not for those last two minutes in the last game against the hated Ravens, the pass defense wouldn't have a black mark on their resume this season.  Now, if only they could intercept some passes.
  4. That's the thing.  This is a championship defense if they can force some turnovers.  They've actually forced 13 fumbles on the season, but they've only recovered four of those.  They have 11 interceptions, so that's 15 total turnovers forced in a 16 game season.  That's no good.  It's true that you can make your own luck when it comes to turnovers, but it's also true that a lot of it depends on how the ball bounces.  What if they'd had some lucky bounces on some more of those forced fumbles and had recovered nine or ten of them?  On offense, they've lost 13 of 16 fumbles, so the ball definitely isn't bouncing their way this season.  How many tipped balls were there on Sunday?  If the ball hasn't been bouncing their way this season, it's highly unlikely that it will start bouncing their way in the playoffs.  That means this isn't a championship defense.  Maybe this belongs in Bad News?  We'll leave it here.
  5. Ben Roethlisberger made it through the entire game without aggravating his ankle injury.  It sucks that Mendenhall went down, but Roethlisberger is the only indispensable player on offense.
  6. They outgained Cleveland 360-240 on Sunday and they outgained their opponents 5957-4349 on the season and they finished with the #1 scoring defense, the #1 pass defense, and #1 in total defense.  That's pretty damned impressive.
Now for the Bad News:
  1. They didn't have a huge edge in point differential, despite the fact that they gained an average of 100 yards per game more than their opponents.  They finished 22nd in scoring offense.  Part of that was that the defense wasn't generating turnovers and giving the offense a short field.  The other part was struggles in the red zone.  This is a great offense between the 20s, which can get you to 12-4 with the support of a great defense.  Can't get you to the Super Bowl so much.
  2. Mike Wallace seems to be regressing.  Roethlisberger is not targeting him as much as he did early the season and that's probably part of it.  But, Wallace was also caught not paying attention on a couple of plays where Roethlisberger targeted him.  Wallace was definitely a bigger part of the offense earlier in the season and defenses started paying more attention to him, which opened things up for Antonio Brown.  Brown took full advantage of those opportunities and now defenses are starting to watch out for him.  It'll be interesting to see who the Broncos have Champ Bailey cover in the Wild Card round.  If I were them, I'd put Bailey on Brown and roll the dice that Wallace doesn't make a game changing play.
  3. Rashard Mendenhall's knee injury is a bummer, but I don't think it's a catastrophic bummer.  The real issue is that Mewelde Moore is also dealing with a knee injury and Baron Batch has been on injured reserve all season.  A position that was already thin in terms of depth just got thinner.  If anything happens to Issac Redman, the offense is in big trouble.  But, the good news here is that Redman is probably a better back in this offense, provided he can keep from fumbling the ball.  Since the Steelers don't have a dominant offensive line that blows guys off the ball, they don't open very many big holes.  Mendenhall can do more with a big hole than Redman, but Redman can make more out of a small hole (or no hole) than Mendenhall.  But, the fumbling problem is a big problem.  He didn't have ball security issues heading into Week 17, so let's just hope that it was a one-game-jitters situation.
  4. Ramon Foster got dinged up, Pouncey looked a little sluggish, and I have no idea what kind of shape Legursky is going to be in.  The Steelers don't have a ton of talent up front and starting backups of players that don't have a ton of talent is no way to win a championship.
The biggest piece of bad news is that the hated Ravens also won, which means the Steelers are the 5 seed instead of the 2 seed.  I'm not a big believer in home field advantage when it comes to the playoffs.  The Steelers won three games on the road on their way to Super Bowl XL.  It can be done.  My problem with the  lack of a bye.  I think Roethlisberger and the other walking wounded could've really used that extra week of rest.  In addition, someone else could've done the Steelers a favor and knocked off Baltimore, possibly New England as well.

The two teams that scare me the most in this postseason bracket -- the Patriots and the hated Ravens -- are also the two teams that are in the best position to make a deep run.  That sucks.

But, ultimately, unless the offense can take better care of the ball and seal the deal when they get inside the 20 and the defense can force some turnovers, this is just a really good team that went 12-4 and went to the playoffs this season.

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