I am becoming more and more worried and pessimistic about this game as the days go by. When I heard that the Broncos won the AFC West by losing, I was ecstatic. It meant that the Steelers would have a chance to dismantle and humiliate Football Jesus and I'm all about the schadenfreude (holy crap, schadenfreude was in the spell check dictionary).
I wasn't overly concerned about the fact that Rashard Mendenhall got placed on IR and I was convinced that Ben Roethlisberger's ankle would only improve, so long as he could continue to just walk it off and/or rub some dirt in it.
Now that we're about 48 hours from kickoff, I'm more than a little nervous, since Ryan Clark can't play, Pouncey has been ruled out, Roethlisberger suffered a setback in the Cleveland game (still listed as probable, though), Polamalu and Harrison haven't practiced this week (somehow listed as probable), Mewelde Moore is out, and Keisel missed two practices this week. My guess is that, since this is the playoffs, everyone that hasn't been ruled out is going to play. But, how well will they play in the thin air at Mile High Stadium Presented by Sports Authority? How limited will they be?
Also, running backs coach Kirby Wilson was badly burned when a fire broke out in his kitchen. At least Lamarr Woodley looks like he's ready to go, so that's a silver lining.
When I found out the Steelers were going to be playing in Denver, I was looking forward to a pretty easy win. Then I remembered that the offense seems to have peaked at 13 points a game ever since Roethlisberger hurt his ankle. Then I remembered that it was a road game and the Broncos play tough at home. Then everyone got hurt and guys started dropping off and becoming unavailable for the game. This morning, an assistant coach got burned in a house fire. There are a lot of bad omens surrounding this game. This game is officially making me very nervous.
Having said all that, I stand by my Wild Card prediction. This is going to be an ugly, stupid game. It will not end quickly. I will not enjoy it. Denver will cover and you should take the under (even though it dropped to 33.5), but they will not win outright.
Here's why: The Steelers have destroyed bad quarterbacks all season and Tim Tebow is a bad quarterback. It doesn't matter what stat you use: quarterback rating (72.9), QBR (30.5), or QBERT (6.385). He has only 1,729 yards passing in 11 starts, his completion percentage is atrocious (46.5%), and he's been sacked 33 times. He's also fumbled 13 times. I know that he's 7-4 and that he's money in the fourth quarter, but I also know that more accurate passers with better numbers still struggled to put up even respectable numbers against the Steeler pass defense.
The more accurate/better numbers list includes: Tavaris Jackson, Kevin Kolb, Blaine Gabbert, Curtis Painter, Colt McCoy, Seneca Wallace, Kellen Clemens (OK, that one's debatable, he may be a less gifted passer than Tebow), and Tyler Palko. Those guys combined to score 74 points on the Pittsburgh defense and 40 of those points came from Curtis Painter and Kevin Kolb.
They should be able to focus on Willis McGahee and contain him. They have the personnel in the secondary to switch off between the Cover 3 looks that Buffalo used to stop Tebow and the man coverage looks the Patriots and Chiefs used. They just need to remember to stay focused and stay on their man when they switch away from zone coverage. Tebow was able to burn the Vikings secondary for a couple of long touchdowns because the defensive backs were too focused on him and forgot to stay on their man. I can see Troy Polamalu making that mistake and Ryan Clark won't be there to cover Troy's mistakes. Then again, pretty much every quarterback in the league was able to burn the Vikings secondary this season, so maybe it just boils down to Tebow not being very good.
The point is that the Steelers shouldn't need to score much to win this game. They won't score much, either, which is why you should take the under.
Just remember: A win's a win.
Prediction:
Steelers 13, Broncos 9
Showing posts with label 2011 playoffs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2011 playoffs. Show all posts
Friday, January 06, 2012
Wednesday, January 04, 2012
Handicapping the Wild Card Round
After my resounding victory in NFL Pick Em this season, I've decided to pick each round of the postseason against the spread. This is a more challenging way to do things, but I have confidence in my abilities. Onto the picks (home team in CAPS)...
HOUSTON (-3) over Cincinnati:
I thought this line was going to go down when it opened, because so many people were going to take the Bengals in an upset. It hasn't moved since it opened at 3, but you should still take it as soon as you can in case the Mighty Ginger's mysterious "illness" starts to swing it towards the Texans. If the line moves to 3.5 or, even worse, 4, then it's not worth it. This is a textbook 21-17 or 27-23 or 28-24 game. At four points, it's a push. At three points, it's easy money.
In the playoffs, it's all about quarterback play. Cincinnati has the edge there, but the Texans have the edge everywhere else, including the fact that they're playing at home. The over/under on this one is surprisingly low (38.5), but I think that Vegas is thinking that two solid defenses will keep this game low scoring.
My feeling is that it will unfold like Super Bowl XXXVIII between the Panthers and the Patriots. Both teams will start out conservative and try to feel each other out, then they'll come out swinging in the second half. If the first half ends 10-7, don't panic. They'll make up for it in the second half.
NEW ORLEANS (-10.5) over Detroit:
I tried to talk my way into picking the Lions. I really did. That line is HUGE and Detroit is a solid team. The Saints play crappy defense. But, really, I'd need a 15-17 point line to pick against the Saints at home. They're just unstoppable.
NOLA's margins of victory at home this season: 17, 7, 55, 11, 25, 14 (against Detroit), 29, 28. They're 8-0 at home, there's only one game on that list where they wouldn't have covered, and they already covered that spread against the Lions earlier this season.
I know that the over is 58.5 and that's a ridiculous number. But... total points in the eight games this season in the Super Dome: 43, 73, 69, 43, 73, 48, 63, 62. That's five out of eight total games and three out of the last four. They might hit the Over by halftime.
Atlanta (+3) over NY GIANTS:
New York is 4-4 at home and they're shaky as hell. I think the Falcons cover and win outright, so take the moneyline at +136.
These are two high-flying offenses and two teams that don't play a lot of defense. An over/under of 47 actually seems a bit low. I see the Falcons winning this one 34-20 or so.
DENVER (+9) over Steelers:
Don't get me wrong. I think the Steelers win this one. I just think that, whoever came up with this line, they didn't watch the Steelers play the past month or so. With an ailing Ben Roethlisberger behind center, I find it hard to believe that the Steelers will score enough to cover this spread, regardless of where the game is played.
This strikes me as another grinding 13-9 or 14-10 or 16-13 victory for the Black and Gold. I think they win, but I don't think they roll. And take the Under, even though total points is an extremely low 34.
HOUSTON (-3) over Cincinnati:
I thought this line was going to go down when it opened, because so many people were going to take the Bengals in an upset. It hasn't moved since it opened at 3, but you should still take it as soon as you can in case the Mighty Ginger's mysterious "illness" starts to swing it towards the Texans. If the line moves to 3.5 or, even worse, 4, then it's not worth it. This is a textbook 21-17 or 27-23 or 28-24 game. At four points, it's a push. At three points, it's easy money.
In the playoffs, it's all about quarterback play. Cincinnati has the edge there, but the Texans have the edge everywhere else, including the fact that they're playing at home. The over/under on this one is surprisingly low (38.5), but I think that Vegas is thinking that two solid defenses will keep this game low scoring.
My feeling is that it will unfold like Super Bowl XXXVIII between the Panthers and the Patriots. Both teams will start out conservative and try to feel each other out, then they'll come out swinging in the second half. If the first half ends 10-7, don't panic. They'll make up for it in the second half.
NEW ORLEANS (-10.5) over Detroit:
I tried to talk my way into picking the Lions. I really did. That line is HUGE and Detroit is a solid team. The Saints play crappy defense. But, really, I'd need a 15-17 point line to pick against the Saints at home. They're just unstoppable.
NOLA's margins of victory at home this season: 17, 7, 55, 11, 25, 14 (against Detroit), 29, 28. They're 8-0 at home, there's only one game on that list where they wouldn't have covered, and they already covered that spread against the Lions earlier this season.
I know that the over is 58.5 and that's a ridiculous number. But... total points in the eight games this season in the Super Dome: 43, 73, 69, 43, 73, 48, 63, 62. That's five out of eight total games and three out of the last four. They might hit the Over by halftime.
Atlanta (+3) over NY GIANTS:
New York is 4-4 at home and they're shaky as hell. I think the Falcons cover and win outright, so take the moneyline at +136.
These are two high-flying offenses and two teams that don't play a lot of defense. An over/under of 47 actually seems a bit low. I see the Falcons winning this one 34-20 or so.
DENVER (+9) over Steelers:
Don't get me wrong. I think the Steelers win this one. I just think that, whoever came up with this line, they didn't watch the Steelers play the past month or so. With an ailing Ben Roethlisberger behind center, I find it hard to believe that the Steelers will score enough to cover this spread, regardless of where the game is played.
This strikes me as another grinding 13-9 or 14-10 or 16-13 victory for the Black and Gold. I think they win, but I don't think they roll. And take the Under, even though total points is an extremely low 34.
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