After my resounding victory in NFL Pick Em this season, I've decided to pick each round of the postseason against the spread. This is a more challenging way to do things, but I have confidence in my abilities. Onto the picks (home team in CAPS)...
HOUSTON (-3) over Cincinnati:
I thought this line was going to go down when it opened, because so many people were going to take the Bengals in an upset. It hasn't moved since it opened at 3, but you should still take it as soon as you can in case the Mighty Ginger's mysterious "illness" starts to swing it towards the Texans. If the line moves to 3.5 or, even worse, 4, then it's not worth it. This is a textbook 21-17 or 27-23 or 28-24 game. At four points, it's a push. At three points, it's easy money.
In the playoffs, it's all about quarterback play. Cincinnati has the edge there, but the Texans have the edge everywhere else, including the fact that they're playing at home. The over/under on this one is surprisingly low (38.5), but I think that Vegas is thinking that two solid defenses will keep this game low scoring.
My feeling is that it will unfold like Super Bowl XXXVIII between the Panthers and the Patriots. Both teams will start out conservative and try to feel each other out, then they'll come out swinging in the second half. If the first half ends 10-7, don't panic. They'll make up for it in the second half.
NEW ORLEANS (-10.5) over Detroit:
I tried to talk my way into picking the Lions. I really did. That line is HUGE and Detroit is a solid team. The Saints play crappy defense. But, really, I'd need a 15-17 point line to pick against the Saints at home. They're just unstoppable.
NOLA's margins of victory at home this season: 17, 7, 55, 11, 25, 14 (against Detroit), 29, 28. They're 8-0 at home, there's only one game on that list where they wouldn't have covered, and they already covered that spread against the Lions earlier this season.
I know that the over is 58.5 and that's a ridiculous number. But... total points in the eight games this season in the Super Dome: 43, 73, 69, 43, 73, 48, 63, 62. That's five out of eight total games and three out of the last four. They might hit the Over by halftime.
Atlanta (+3) over NY GIANTS:
New York is 4-4 at home and they're shaky as hell. I think the Falcons cover and win outright, so take the moneyline at +136.
These are two high-flying offenses and two teams that don't play a lot of defense. An over/under of 47 actually seems a bit low. I see the Falcons winning this one 34-20 or so.
DENVER (+9) over Steelers:
Don't get me wrong. I think the Steelers win this one. I just think that, whoever came up with this line, they didn't watch the Steelers play the past month or so. With an ailing Ben Roethlisberger behind center, I find it hard to believe that the Steelers will score enough to cover this spread, regardless of where the game is played.
This strikes me as another grinding 13-9 or 14-10 or 16-13 victory for the Black and Gold. I think they win, but I don't think they roll. And take the Under, even though total points is an extremely low 34.
Showing posts with label atlanta falcons. Show all posts
Showing posts with label atlanta falcons. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 04, 2012
Sunday, August 28, 2011
Preseason Review: Falcons at Steelers
Well, I had to jinx Maurkice Pouncey. I had to talk about how he's the best guy on the line and how he gives the line some much-needed stability. Then, last night, he goes out and hurts his ankle. His injury didn't seem as severe as the knee injury sustained by Keenan Lewis or Byron Leftwich's broken arm, but it's still significant. If it's a high ankle sprain or a break, Pouncey probably won't be able to make it for the start of the regular season.
That's really the only bad news that came out of last night's game. The defense gave up a lot of yards and seemed to be in full-on retreat mode for most of the first half, but they were able to (mostly) hold things together in the red zone. The score could've gotten way more out of hand if they hadn't held the Falcons to field goals inside the 20.
It looks like Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Roddy White are all worth grabbing for Fantasy purposes. White had eight catches for 101 yards and a touchdown on ten targets in just the first half. Jones would've had a much more productive night if he had been able to hang onto that 48-yard bomb from Ryan in the second quarter. It also looks like Michael Turner will not have a productive season. I know it's only the preseason and it's no time to panic, but he just looked slow to the hole and finished with 19 yards on seven carries. He got 11 of those yards on one run. With great blocking and a big hole, he wasn't able to explode into that hole the way he used to. The old Michael Turner probably would've gained 30 yards or so when given that kind of opportunity.
Ultimately, I think this game came down to the fact that the Steelers made big plays when they had the opportunity and Atlanta did not. If Jones hangs on to that touchdown, the game is very different. If Antonio Brown isn't able to get his feet under him and split the safeties, he gets tackled before he can scamper off for a 77-yard touchdown. I'm not discounting any of those plays. The Steelers still had to make those plays and you can't look at this game without putting them in there. But, the Falcons ran 86 plays to the Steelers' 51. Atlanta had 25 first downs, the Steelers had 15. I understand that the goal is to score in as few plays as possible, but this defense isn't going to hold together -- for an entire game or for the balance of the season -- if they have to face 86 plays every week. On average, you give up a lot more than 16 points when you face 86 plays.
The Falcons were 10-for-20 on third downs. That means that, not only did they convert on half of their opportunities, they also faced third down a full 20 times in this game. That's a lot of chances for the Steelers to get off the field, but it's also way too many chances for the other team to stay on it. If the first team played both halves on both sides, I have a feeling that the defense would have eventually caved in. They actually did a good job of containing Ryan -- he completed only 52 percent of his passes, threw an interception, and his quarterback rating was 65.6 -- but they also let him throw 42 passes in the first half. He had 42 attempts in one half of football. Yes, Lewis went down in the first half and McFadden and Taylor didn't suit up for the game, but that's a ridiculously high number. Teams are going to focus on spreading the Steelers out and throwing the ball all season, so I guess we had better get used to it.
I thought the offensive line played well in pass protection, especially considering that the Falcons were blitzing like crazy. I also think that, after the last two weeks, the teams on the Steelers schedule this season realize that blitzing Ben Roethlisberger is a bad idea. That's unfortunate, because most of the big plays he's made thus far came against the blitz. I also think that the Atlanta coaches called that insane, jail break, Cover 0 blitz in the second quarter just to see what would happen. I think the whole team came on that thing, with Mike Smith sprinting in from the sidelines. I doubt we'll see that in their playbook once the 2011 season kicks off.
The bad news on the offensive line is that the same issue that has plagued the team since 2008 is still there: I doubt that we'll be able to run for one yard when we absolutely, positively need to. Mendenhall didn't have a lot of room to run and his stats were padded by that touchdown on the first series (yes, I'm aware that it was a one-yard score, but I stick by what I said). None of the running backs saw a lot of daylight, which means that this could be a passing offense that struggles in the red zone... kinda like how the Falcons looked last night.
On defense, I think the front seven is ready for the season to start. Lewis -- if healthy -- and Gay have gained some valuable experience and the Steelers are going to need four quality cornerbacks if last night is any indication (and it is). The secondary should be fine, provided Troy and Ryan Clark stay healthy, since they seem to be able to cover up for a lot of the shortcomings of the cornerbacks.
Of course, Antonio Brown is awesome. He played an outstanding game and was running with the first team. But, I think everyone needs to temper their optimism and realize that this is the preseason. Yes, Brown had 246 total yards and two touchdowns last night, but Crezdon Butler also led the team in tackles and had a 95-yard interception return for a touchdown. I believe that Brown has locked down the third receiver job and I think he's going to be very involved in the offense this season.
I also heard that, in a recent Fantasy Football draft, someone took Brown in the fourth round. That is more than a little crazy. The plays that Brown scored on last night both looked really familiar and I couldn't figure out why at first. I eventually realized that they were kinds of plays usually called with Mike Wallace in mind. I think that the Steelers coaches were testing Brown to see what he could do in those situations and they were very pleased with the results. But, being pleased with the results and giving Wallace's touches to Brown are two different things entirely. Ward and Wallace will still be the main guys in this group and they'll get most of the targets in the passing game. It's good to know that Brown will be able to do a lot with the opportunities he gets when he gets them.
With one game left to go, I have to say they look pretty solid. Let's just hope they escape next week without any major injuries.
That's really the only bad news that came out of last night's game. The defense gave up a lot of yards and seemed to be in full-on retreat mode for most of the first half, but they were able to (mostly) hold things together in the red zone. The score could've gotten way more out of hand if they hadn't held the Falcons to field goals inside the 20.
It looks like Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Roddy White are all worth grabbing for Fantasy purposes. White had eight catches for 101 yards and a touchdown on ten targets in just the first half. Jones would've had a much more productive night if he had been able to hang onto that 48-yard bomb from Ryan in the second quarter. It also looks like Michael Turner will not have a productive season. I know it's only the preseason and it's no time to panic, but he just looked slow to the hole and finished with 19 yards on seven carries. He got 11 of those yards on one run. With great blocking and a big hole, he wasn't able to explode into that hole the way he used to. The old Michael Turner probably would've gained 30 yards or so when given that kind of opportunity.
Ultimately, I think this game came down to the fact that the Steelers made big plays when they had the opportunity and Atlanta did not. If Jones hangs on to that touchdown, the game is very different. If Antonio Brown isn't able to get his feet under him and split the safeties, he gets tackled before he can scamper off for a 77-yard touchdown. I'm not discounting any of those plays. The Steelers still had to make those plays and you can't look at this game without putting them in there. But, the Falcons ran 86 plays to the Steelers' 51. Atlanta had 25 first downs, the Steelers had 15. I understand that the goal is to score in as few plays as possible, but this defense isn't going to hold together -- for an entire game or for the balance of the season -- if they have to face 86 plays every week. On average, you give up a lot more than 16 points when you face 86 plays.
The Falcons were 10-for-20 on third downs. That means that, not only did they convert on half of their opportunities, they also faced third down a full 20 times in this game. That's a lot of chances for the Steelers to get off the field, but it's also way too many chances for the other team to stay on it. If the first team played both halves on both sides, I have a feeling that the defense would have eventually caved in. They actually did a good job of containing Ryan -- he completed only 52 percent of his passes, threw an interception, and his quarterback rating was 65.6 -- but they also let him throw 42 passes in the first half. He had 42 attempts in one half of football. Yes, Lewis went down in the first half and McFadden and Taylor didn't suit up for the game, but that's a ridiculously high number. Teams are going to focus on spreading the Steelers out and throwing the ball all season, so I guess we had better get used to it.
I thought the offensive line played well in pass protection, especially considering that the Falcons were blitzing like crazy. I also think that, after the last two weeks, the teams on the Steelers schedule this season realize that blitzing Ben Roethlisberger is a bad idea. That's unfortunate, because most of the big plays he's made thus far came against the blitz. I also think that the Atlanta coaches called that insane, jail break, Cover 0 blitz in the second quarter just to see what would happen. I think the whole team came on that thing, with Mike Smith sprinting in from the sidelines. I doubt we'll see that in their playbook once the 2011 season kicks off.
The bad news on the offensive line is that the same issue that has plagued the team since 2008 is still there: I doubt that we'll be able to run for one yard when we absolutely, positively need to. Mendenhall didn't have a lot of room to run and his stats were padded by that touchdown on the first series (yes, I'm aware that it was a one-yard score, but I stick by what I said). None of the running backs saw a lot of daylight, which means that this could be a passing offense that struggles in the red zone... kinda like how the Falcons looked last night.
On defense, I think the front seven is ready for the season to start. Lewis -- if healthy -- and Gay have gained some valuable experience and the Steelers are going to need four quality cornerbacks if last night is any indication (and it is). The secondary should be fine, provided Troy and Ryan Clark stay healthy, since they seem to be able to cover up for a lot of the shortcomings of the cornerbacks.
Of course, Antonio Brown is awesome. He played an outstanding game and was running with the first team. But, I think everyone needs to temper their optimism and realize that this is the preseason. Yes, Brown had 246 total yards and two touchdowns last night, but Crezdon Butler also led the team in tackles and had a 95-yard interception return for a touchdown. I believe that Brown has locked down the third receiver job and I think he's going to be very involved in the offense this season.
I also heard that, in a recent Fantasy Football draft, someone took Brown in the fourth round. That is more than a little crazy. The plays that Brown scored on last night both looked really familiar and I couldn't figure out why at first. I eventually realized that they were kinds of plays usually called with Mike Wallace in mind. I think that the Steelers coaches were testing Brown to see what he could do in those situations and they were very pleased with the results. But, being pleased with the results and giving Wallace's touches to Brown are two different things entirely. Ward and Wallace will still be the main guys in this group and they'll get most of the targets in the passing game. It's good to know that Brown will be able to do a lot with the opportunities he gets when he gets them.
With one game left to go, I have to say they look pretty solid. Let's just hope they escape next week without any major injuries.
Saturday, August 27, 2011
What to Watch for: Falcons at Steelers
I always like the third preseason game, because it's more like an actual game than any other in the preseason. The starters will get more time, maybe the starting five on the offensive line will be in the game deep into the third quarter, and you get a better sense for what the team will actually look like when the games start counting. The fourth preseason game, the starters are usually only in for a series or two and it's pretty depressing to watch, since you know that everyone else involved in the game is playing for their job.
For tonight, I'm going to keep an eye on the following things:
For tonight, I'm going to keep an eye on the following things:
- I just mentioned the starting five on the offensive line. But, really, the only position that's completely set is center. With injuries, the release of Flozell Adams and Max Starks, and general ineffectiveness from the field, we're really not sure who's going to be in the line-up when the season kicks off against the hated Ravens on September 11th. It would be really nice if a few guys stepped up in this game and gave us a clearer picture. I'm also interested in finding out who they roll out as the five starters. Then, of course, how those guys run block and pass protect. I was impressed by how the collection of walking wounded and back-ups protected Roethlisberger in the second game and I'm hoping they can keep that up, whoever the four guys that are surrounding Pouncey are.
- Keenan Lewis and William Gay played well against the Eagles and the reps they're getting with the first team will help the defense throughout the course of the season. But, they're facing off against Roddy White and Julio Jones tonight and that's some tough competition. I would like to hope that they won't get burned, but I have a bad feeling that they will regress. Since there's no doubt that they read this blog and are wondering what I have to say, I'm officially issuing a challenge to Lewis and Gay to step up their games and play well tonight. It's on, guys. See you at Jack's after the game so we can break down the film.
- I like the signing of Jerricho Cotchery, but I'm concerned that he wasn't running with the first team in the last game. Hopefully, he'll be running with them tonight and I can get a better look at him. With Cotchery, Wallace, Ward, a healthy Emmanuel Sanders, Heath Miller, and the way Antonio Brown has been developing, this could be a very, very potent passing offense. That's provided, of course, that the offensive line can keep Roethlisberger upright.
- I want to see how much gas Michael Turner has left in the tank, strictly for Fantasy purposes. He got a late start in his career, but it seems like he already has a lot of miles on him. He's pushing 30, which is like 85 in running back years, so it will be good to see how he performs against a great run defense like the Steelers.
- Similarly, I'm going to have an eye on Matt Ryan, Jones, and White. Atlanta traded their entire draft to get Jones and I want to see if he's as good as advertised. The Falcons have no shortage of offensive talent, either, and all those guys are on my Fantasy watch list.
- The linebackers all have their story lines and I want to keep an eye on them. LaMarr Woodley and Lawrence Timmons both signed huge deals in the offseason. I want to see if they'll try to go out and earn that money or if they'll sit back and spend the rest of the contract counting it. James Harrison had a rough offseason and he turned 33 in May. James Farrior took a big step back in 2009 after a solid 2008 and he turned 36 in January. Surprisingly, I'm not that worried about the defensive line, since they have plenty of quality, young depth, even if the average age of the starting three is death.
- On both sides, I want to watch timing. It has seemed off thus far this preseason -- which is understandable, considering that there weren't any team-sponsored practices in the offseason -- but all NFL team have had a few weeks to get that ironed out. Really, I'm watching to see if it's still pretty far off and timing issues will drag out into the regular season.
I usually try to figure out what the Steelers need to do to win the game, but I have to say that I don't care if they win or lose this one. I'm just watching out for the items discussed above.
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