Soooo Shady: Eagles at Steelers Preview

I'm going to say that LeSean McCoy is the key to this game because I think the Steelers will be able to limit the amount of damage Michael Vick does if they can keep Shady in check.  If he's able to gouge them like Darren McFadden did in the Week 3, then they're not going to be able to contain Vick, either.

McCoy is the most talented player on a very talented offense.  He's such a bad ass that he used to say his name when he juked someone in practice as an extra-special kind of taunt.  He has excellent vision, great feet, good acceleration, and is a very capable receiver.  However, he's not a real home run threat and he doesn't do well when he doesn't have nice gaps to run through.  If the Steeler defense can maintain gap integrity, fill the running lanes, and no one tries to be a hero, they should be able to keep him hemmed in.  At least I hope so.

The Eagles are 3-1, but it hasn't been pretty.  They've won their three games by a total of four points, but they've faced a pretty formidable schedule (except for when they played the Browns).  The big issue thus far this season has been turnovers.  They commit a lot of those.  The Steelers don't force a lot of those.  So, in a case of the "moveable object versus the resistable force" the Steelers will need to force some turnovers to win this game.  This game will most likely turn into a shootout and the Steelers will need those extra possessions in order to win.  I think that they have it in them, but this game fills me with dread.

Philly has basically returned their "Dream Team" roster from 2011 (minus Vince Young), but they're actually finishing games and have been able to overcome the fact that they're their own worst enemy.  There's a ton of talent on this roster and it's finally being used properly, most notably by allowing Michael Vick to be Michael Vick and not forcing a bunch of man coverage corners to play zone.  If they play together and don't beat themselves, they could route the Steelers and it could be an ugly game.

Really, all signs and match-ups point to an Eagles victory.  But, I picked the Steelers in Pick Em this week because of what I think are several important factors.

1. They're at home and they play better at home.
2. They're coming off a bye and they've had two weeks to prepare for Philadelphia.
3. Everyone's healthy for the first time this season, most importantly James Harrison and Troy Polamalu are coming back, which should be a big boost for the defense.  I'm happy that Mendenhall is coming back and I'm starting him in two fantasy football leagues, but I think the defense's ability to get stops and force turnovers is going to be the key to this game.
4. The defense got embarrassed in Oakland and they're pissed off.  Historically, they turn in a strong performance the week after they get beat down and subsequently accused of being too old.  There's a lot of veteran leadership on the defense, but, more importantly, there are a lot of guys that take pride in playing good defense.  Their ability to come back from a poor showing and force everyone to gulp down a frosty glass of STFU is what's going to win this game for the Steelers.

I feel confident in those four points, but I'm still filled with dread.  This game could left me up, or it could crush my spirits, with the Steelers being crushed as well.

But, what the hell, gotta predict something, right?

Prediction:

Steelers 31, Eagles 27

Good News and Bad News: Steelers at Raiders

Not a lot of good news, particularly after an ugly, frustrating loss like this one, but let's get the good news out of the way first:

1. Ben Roethlisberger played a fantastic game, only getting sacked once in 50 dropbacks, not throwing an interception, averaging 7.8 yards per attempt, throwing four touchdown passes, and going 8-for-14 on third down.  I know the Raiders were thin in the secondary -- safety Michael Huff played the entire game at cornerback -- but this was still a very impressive effort by Roethlisberger, especially considering that the running game was non-existent.
2. I like the fact that they got Mike Wallace and Heath Miller prominently involved in the passing game.

Bad News:

1. The pass rush didn't generate nearly enough pressure and hasn't all season.  The only time they get sacks or generate pressure is either when LaMarr Woodley makes an exceptional individual effort or they rush six or more guys.  They don't have the talent in the secondary to cover receivers for more than three seconds.  Most teams don't.  I'd like to say this issue will be fixed when/if James Harrison comes back, but I don't think it will.  I know that Harrison -- or even Jason Worilds -- would be a big upgrade in terms of pass rush ability, but I don't know that upgrading one spot is going to be the silver bullet that fixes everything.
2. They went to prevent defense mode far too early, which is one reason they blew two ten point fourth quarter leads.
3. Rashard Mendenhall can't come back soon enough.  I think it's smart that the Steelers have been trying not to rush him back, but I also think they can't wait any longer.  Issac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer and Baron Batch aren't bad players, they're just not as explosive as Mendenhall.  They don't have the speed to get to the edge, so defenses can focus on clogging up the middle and waiting for Redman and Dwyer and Batch to run into them.  Since defenses don't need to worry about protecting the edge, it makes it easier for them to defend the run.  When it becomes easier to defend the run, they have to worry about it less and can focus on defending the pass.  All of this means that it's going to get harder and harder for Roethlisberger to keep having the season he's having.
4. Special teams hasn't been very special thus far this season and yesterday was another example.  Shaun Suisham had two line drive kickoffs that didn't make it to the end zone and Oakland returned both of them for a total of 87 yards.  Antonio Brown had a punt return for a touchdown called back. At that point in the game, it would have made the score 21-7 if it counted and would have probably sent the Raiders into a tailspin.  Instead, Dwyer fumbles, Oakland scores, and it's suddenly a ball game again.
5. Technically, they've "forced" two turnovers thus far this season, but they haven't actually forced any turnovers.  One turnover was the result of a muffed punt in the Jets game and the other was an interception by Ryan Clark that occurred after Denarius Moore slipped and fell down.  They've only committed three turnovers, which is good, but the defense isn't good enough -- or young enough -- to face drive after drive and not be expected to buckle.

There were a number of things that went wrong yesterday, but the biggest cause for concern is the fact that Oakland is hardly an offensive powerhouse and they scored 34 points and what was supposed to be a solid defense.  The Raiders scored 14 points against the Chargers in Week 1 and only 13 against the Dolphins in Week 2.  The Steelers have already allowed two opponents to score 30 or more points against them and we're only in Week 3.  They allowed 30 points in a game once in 2010 and once in 2011.

Their issues on defense go beyond just the pass rush, but getting guys healthy and finding ways to get more pressure on the quarterback is the best "quick fix" option that they have.  Hopefully Harrison, Mendenhall, and Polamalu will return after the bye and things will get closer to normal. 

But, I have a feeling that there really is no quick fix and that we could be in for a long season.  This isn't based just off the loss to the Raiders or the loss to the Broncos, even though both of those sucked.  It's based off the fact that they've been underwhelming thus far this season and I think things will get worse before they get better.

Get Sanchez: Jets at Steelers Preview

I have to admit that I only saw five plays of last week's game against the Broncos.  Interestingly enough, I was in Colorado at my brother in-law's wedding.

I got to look at this instead of Peyton Manning, which I think is a fair trade.

As a result, I wasn't able to witness them falling apart in the fourth quarter, though I somehow caught Demarius Thomas' 70 yard catch-and-run for a touchdown, which I took as a bad sign.  I've seen highlights and read some analysis and I have to say I'm not sure why a lot of people are freaking out.  I mean, I know why they're freaking out, it's because the Steelers lost and lost by meltdown and that's not something that people are accustomed to seeing from the Steelers.  But... I don't think the freakouts are warranted.

I tried to get everyone to calm down after the hated Ravens curb-stomped the Steelers in the opener last year.  My point was that it was only one game and the NFL would only give them one loss, no matter how poorly they played.  From what I can tell, the offense and defense performed pretty well for the first three quarters and kept Manning mostly in check.  They didn't get destroyed for four quarters like they did in Baltimore to open the 2011 season.  As you may recall, the Steelers were 12-4 last year.  They don't get to face the craptastic line-up of inept quarterbacks this season that they benefited from last season, but I think it is not yet time to panic and that there's a very solid chance they finish 10-6 or 9-7.


But, this is a Preview post for the Jets game, so I'm going to move on.

Three big items in this game:

1. Word came out today that Darelle Revis is out for this game.  That's huge.  If Revis Island is vacant, then Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders will all have better match-ups.
2. They get Ryan Clark back.  Even though Troy and James Harrison are probably out, I think adding Clark back in is a net win.  Harrison didn't play last week, either, and Troy freelanced a little too much (from what I heard and it also looked like he took himself out of the play on the Thomas touchdown).  With Clark back in there and Ryan Mundy playing things by the book, they should be fine in the secondary.  It'd just be nice if they could generate some kind of pass rush and force Sanchez into making some mistakes.
3. Read this this morning: "Pittsburgh hasn't started a season 0-2 since 2002, though that didn't stop the Steelers from finishing 10-5-1 and making it to the divisional round of the playoffs. The Steelers haven't even lost consecutive games since a five-game slide in 2009."  That's some serious consistency right there.  I have a feeling the veteran guys on this team will be extra focused on Sunday to make sure that continues.  With two teams as close talent-wise as the Jets and Steelers, that little bit of extra focus is going to help a lot.

I think the Jets offense isn't as good as the Bills made them look in Week 1 and the Steelers defense isn't as bad as Manning made them look, either.  Manning is a better quarterback than Sanchez and he also has more talent around him at the skill positions.  The Jets are almost as thin at tackle as the Steelers and I have a feeling that LaMarr Woodley "great performance against a bad player" games against Austin Howard.  Howard plays right tackle for the Jets.  I had to look it up, too.  It's OK, you shouldn't feel bad.  Howard's not that good, that's why you don't know who he is.

I don't think New York has enough push in the running game to bully a surprisingly deep Steeler defensive line.  Shonn Greene doesn't scare me and neither do any of the guys up front for the Jets.

On offense, I have to say the Jets defense doesn't scare me as much without Revis.  Without him to shut down half the field in the passing game, the opposing team's offense has a lot more options and a lot more ways to attack a pretty average group of re-tread defenders and roleplayers.  I'd also like to add that Bryant Thomas is out for this game, which decreases the odds that Ben Roethlisberger will get sacked 15 times.  My cousin, Dustin Keller, is also scratched for this game, which will hurt a Jets offense that already doesn't have a lot of weapons.  Get well soon, Dustin.  Auntie Claudette sends her love.

I think the Steelers will have trouble running the ball, because they always have trouble running the ball.  It's kind of their thing, but at least they're persistent.  There should be some real opportunities for Roethlisberger, provided he's able to stay upright.  And, provided New York decides not to blitz too much.  According to ESPN blogger Jamison Hensley, Roethlisberger was 6 for 14 with 60 yards and an interception when the Broncos blitzed.  Hensley also points out that the Jets have blitzed on 43.4 percent of all snaps since 2009, most in league.  So, yeah, I think they're going to blitz.  It will just come down to how well the Steelers can pick those blitzes up and how badly the Jets defense breaks down on the back end without Revis if the Steelers do manage to pick up the blitz.

I know I've talked a lot about how both offenses are going to struggle and how they're going to have to do a lot of things right to score points, but I still feel like this is going to be a pretty high scoring game (take the over).  I think that there will be enough breakdowns in coverage when the defenses blitz a little too hard and enough turnovers that give the offense a short field that this won't be a 13-10 slugfest.  Plus which, those kinds of games are usually reserved for November or December.

I think the Steelers win, in a push (line is currently Steelers by 5), but take the over.  Also, these happen to be the numbers in my football pool this week, so I hope I'm predicting the right score.

Prediction:
Steelers 28, Jets 23

Steelers Preseason Game 1 Watchlist

For the most part, the preseason is a bunch of meaningless games that try to determine, once and for all, whose third team defensive end is better than whose fourth team offensive tackle.  But, there are some things to watch for in every game and not just when the starters are on the field (though that's mostly what to watch for).

Here's what I'll be watching:

1. Because I keep meaning to write something about Mike Wallace and keep not doing so, here's what I think: Until he reports to camp, nothing's going to happen with his contract.  I keep hoping that this situation will work out like it did with Hines Ward back in the day.  Both sides hem and haw and dig their feet into the ground until one side-- always the player, never the team -- relents, reports, and begins negotiating.  Until that happens, the coffee table in my living room knows about as much about what's going on as anyone else.  I really hope it happens, because Wallace is the only guy the Steelers have on offense that scares defenses.  Sanders, Brown, Heath, Redman, they're all great guys and good players, but they don't scare anyone.  For this offense to be really productive, I think they need a guy who scares people.
2. There has been a lot of talk thus far about Mike Adams and David DeCastro struggling in practice.  They're both going to be starting tonight, so I want to check them out and see if they struggle in games when it really matters.  Well, it doesn't really matter matter tonight, but it matters more than practice.
3. Chris Rainey.  He had some issues fielding kicks cleanly in practice, but everyone's also talking about how fast and explosive he is.  I want to see how fast he looks when other people are chasing him and really trying to catch him.  I'm excited about Rainey this season.  I think he adds a scary element to the offense.  If he's the guy that scares defenses, we still need Wallace, though.  Rainey will only be able to scare them for 10-12 plays a game.  Wallace scares them for the entire game.  Having both makes them... well, it makes them scarier.
4. With James Harrison and Jason Worilds both on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list, Chris Carter starts tonight at Harrison's position.  I'd like to see how he does against Philly's first team and how he stands up to the challenge.  Hopefully, he'll play angry and show the NFL Hall of Fame voters that he belongs in Canton.
5. It sounds like Cortez Allen has the inside track to the second cornerback job opposite Ike Taylor.  I'll have a close eye on Allen, but I'm also curious to see how Keenan Lewis and Curtis Brown look.  Lewis had the inside track on that job before camp started and Brown was a dark horse candidate to grab it.  The popular theory is that, whoever loses the competition, the Steelers win.  They'll have a solid #2 guy and depth at the #3 and #4 depth chart positions.  My theory -- until I see them in-game -- is that when you have three guys fighting for a job, you have no guys that are worthy of the job.  If you need further evidence of this, look at the three guys fighting for the starting quarterback job in Seattle.
6. I think the Steelers took a pretty big step forward on special teams last season.  I want to confirm that wasn't a fluke.

As things stand right now, the optimism I was feeling after the draft is waning.  I assume that Wallace will be back in the line-up when the season starts, but I don't know that he will and I also don't have many valid reasons upon which to base that assumption.

The offensive line is new and it's younger, but I have no idea if that translates to them actually being better.  I have to see for myself, but the reports I've been hearing from camp haven't inspired me with confidence.

The defense is another year older and I actually think the overall talent level on defense has improved, but I also think that they need to stay 100% healthy this season to match last season's success.  And, with all the guys they have on the wrong side of 30 and the fact that no defense in the history of ever has gone a full season without anyone getting hurt, I don't see them staying 100% healthy, so I'd really welcome a chance to see the third defensive end, because he might be starting by the end of the year.

I'm excited for kickoff, I'm looking forward to the upcoming season, but I'm also anxious as hell.

Good News and Bad News: Steelers at Broncos

Only piece of Good News: They don't have to play in the Divisional Round.  If they needed to travel to Foxborough to play the Patriots, there would be, like, 15 guys on the active roster.  According to Tomlin's press conference on Monday, pretty much everyone suffered a catastrophic injury on Sunday and they would've only dressed two offensive linemen against New England.  That's an exaggeration, but not much of one.

If there's one other silver lining, I was impressed by how the offense still hung in there and managed to put up 23 points.  They were missing their starting tailback, they were down three offensive linemen, Ben Roethlisberger was at about 50 percent capacity on his banged up ankle, and they were stuck in a situation where they needed to throw the ball and the defense knew it.

Ike Taylor had the worst game of his professional career.  Dick LeBeau didn't adjust from man coverage to zone when it became obvious in the second quarter that the Steelers corners couldn't handle the Denver receivers in man coverage.  It could be that Ryan Clark was the X factor.  Without him to cover for Troy's freelancing, there were big holes in the back end.  But, I'm not ready to say that Taylor sucks because of one game.  I think LeBeau would come to my house and beat me up if I even hinted at saying something like that about him and I would deserve it.  William Gay leaves a lot to be desired, but he's a better option than Bryant McFadden or Curtis Brown.  Troy did a great job on run defense, but he was too committed to the line of scrimmage, even after Tebow started completing long passes past overwhelmed Steelers cornerbacks.  Do I think they should cut him?  I do not, that would be dumb.

The defensive line was all backups and Jason Worilds was in for Lamarr Woodley for most of the game.  Without pressure from the front seven -- some more blitzing would have been nice -- the secondary was left shorthanded and you saw the results.  Given that this defense is going to undergo a major overhaul in the offseason due to salary cap issues, we may have had a glimpse into the future.  That's really bad news.

Ike Redman actually averaged 7.0 yards a carry.  Mike Wallace had a nice touchdown run.  Heath Miller, Emmanuel Sanders, and Jerricho Cotchery chipped in.  Roethlisberger did the best he could on one leg.  The interception was inexcusable, but, like everyone else on offense, you could at least claim that he tried hard and didn't give up.

This was a maximum effort game by the Steelers on both sides of the ball, just not maximum focus.  Wallace had a couple of critical drops and his head definitely wasn't in the game -- he hasn't been on the same page with Roethlisberger since Ben's ankle injury.  Mundy and Troy didn't cover well on deep passes.  Taylor often forgot that he was supposed to be covering Thomas.  They didn't switch up to zone just to keep the plays in front of them.

Tim Tebow averaged 15 yards an attempt and 31 yards a completion.  He averaged five yards a carry.  Demaryius Thomas averaged 51 yards per catch.  They had some ridiculous numbers on offense.  They got on a roll in the second quarter and were almost unstoppable. 

That's the thing about this Broncos team: They're dangerous to opponents because they feed off momentum and confidence more than any team I've ever seen.  If they get on a roll, they can beat anybody, including the Patriots and the Packers.  The way they're set up on offense, if they can hit on some big plays in the passing game against teams that have trouble defending the pass (Patriots are 31st against the pass, Green Bay is 32nd), then they open up the rest of the offense and can mix in runs from Tebow and the other members of their top-rated rushing attack to keep a defense off balance and possess the football.

Denver is also a danger to themselves because they feed off momentum and confidence more than any team I've ever seen.  If things aren't clicking for them early and the Patriots/Packers/hated Ravens jump out to a big lead, then the Broncos will start to lose confidence and the wheels will start to come off.  They may get hot late, but by then it will be too late.  If the Steelers had scored touchdowns on those two first quarter possessions, the game would have unfolded much differently.  I'm not saying the Broncos got lucky and the Steelers deserved to win.  Denver played well and they played better than the Steelers.  They deserved to win, the Steelers deserved to lose.  I'm saying that controlling momentum and keeping the Broncos down is the key to victory.  The Steelers didn't do that, they didn't capitalize on the opportunities they had early, and they paid the price.  If future opponents do the same thing this postseason, then Denver has a great shot at some upsets.

But, the bad news for the Broncos is that the Packers, Patriots, and hated Ravens are all much better in the red zone than the Steelers.  They also force more turnovers on defense.  That gives those teams the ability to put Denver away early and keep them out of the game late.  The Steelers didn't have that ability against anyone this season, which is one of the reasons why they'll have the same view of the games as the rest of us (in a roundabout way, I mean.  I'm sure they have nicer TVs and more attractive people in their living rooms.)

And, hey, I say this every time the Steelers fall short of winning the Super Bowl: They've been there eight times, they've won six, and they've had only nine losing seasons since 1970.  That's a damn impressive run and we, as Steeler fans, should appreciate it.  And not be spoiled by it.

I was talking to a friend of mine yesterday and he had a good point.  The team has been on quite a run since Ben Roethlisberger took over as the starting quarterback (and before that, but the Super Bowl appearances and AFC Championship Game appearances really started to pile up starting in 2004).  Steeler fans have been spoiled by that run.  Maybe it's time for a bad run, so that we can learn to appreciate success again instead of just expecting it and turning up our noses at it when it just isn't successful enough.  I'm not saying I want the Steelers to suck.  I'm saying that it may be the best thing for us as fans, at least in the long term.

As long as we still beat Baltimore.  And the Patriots.

Good News and Bad News: Steelers at Browns

Good News first:

1. I am bound by international law to state that a win is a win.
2. Hines Ward got his 1,000th reception, becoming only the eighth player in NFL history to reach that milestone.  It's an impressive accomplishment and I think that solidifies him as a Hall of Fame player.  He's got the rings and the reputation, he just needed the stats.  Now, the 1,000th reception itself was definitely a cheesy call and they've been feeding him easy catches the last few weeks, but I don't think that taints the accomplishment at all.  He earned the other 990 or so receptions and he deserves to have his name up there with the all time greats.
3. I think Ike Taylor was snubbed for the Pro Bowl.  I also think the secondary as a whole is playing at a very high level.  The front seven hasn't been getting as much pressure this season with Woodley and Harrison missing a lot of time, which also makes it so that Lawrence Timmons and James Farrior need to spend more time in coverage.  In past seasons, the front seven bailed the secondary out by generating pressure on the quarterback.  This season, the secondary bailed the front seven out in a big way.  I know that Seneca Wallace isn't exactly Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers, but he was held to 171 yards on 41 attempts (4.3 yards per attempt) with only 16 completions, no touchdowns, and an interception.  The defense in general has been destroying average quarterbacks all season and they held Andy Dalton and Tom Brady in check.  If not for those last two minutes in the last game against the hated Ravens, the pass defense wouldn't have a black mark on their resume this season.  Now, if only they could intercept some passes.
4. That's the thing.  This is a championship defense if they can force some turnovers.  They've actually forced 13 fumbles on the season, but they've only recovered four of those.  They have 11 interceptions, so that's 15 total turnovers forced in a 16 game season.  That's no good.  It's true that you can make your own luck when it comes to turnovers, but it's also true that a lot of it depends on how the ball bounces.  What if they'd had some lucky bounces on some more of those forced fumbles and had recovered nine or ten of them?  On offense, they've lost 13 of 16 fumbles, so the ball definitely isn't bouncing their way this season.  How many tipped balls were there on Sunday?  If the ball hasn't been bouncing their way this season, it's highly unlikely that it will start bouncing their way in the playoffs.  That means this isn't a championship defense.  Maybe this belongs in Bad News?  We'll leave it here.
5. Ben Roethlisberger made it through the entire game without aggravating his ankle injury.  It sucks that Mendenhall went down, but Roethlisberger is the only indispensable player on offense.
6. They outgained Cleveland 360-240 on Sunday and they outgained their opponents 5957-4349 on the season and they finished with the #1 scoring defense, the #1 pass defense, and #1 in total defense.  That's pretty damned impressive.

Now for the Bad News:

1. They didn't have a huge edge in point differential, despite the fact that they gained an average of 100 yards per game more than their opponents.  They finished 22nd in scoring offense.  Part of that was that the defense wasn't generating turnovers and giving the offense a short field.  The other part was struggles in the red zone.  This is a great offense between the 20s, which can get you to 12-4 with the support of a great defense.  Can't get you to the Super Bowl so much.
2. Mike Wallace seems to be regressing.  Roethlisberger is not targeting him as much as he did early the season and that's probably part of it.  But, Wallace was also caught not paying attention on a couple of plays where Roethlisberger targeted him.  Wallace was definitely a bigger part of the offense earlier in the season and defenses started paying more attention to him, which opened things up for Antonio Brown.  Brown took full advantage of those opportunities and now defenses are starting to watch out for him.  It'll be interesting to see who the Broncos have Champ Bailey cover in the Wild Card round.  If I were them, I'd put Bailey on Brown and roll the dice that Wallace doesn't make a game changing play.
3. Rashard Mendenhall's knee injury is a bummer, but I don't think it's a catastrophic bummer.  The real issue is that Mewelde Moore is also dealing with a knee injury and Baron Batch has been on injured reserve all season.  A position that was already thin in terms of depth just got thinner.  If anything happens to Issac Redman, the offense is in big trouble.  But, the good news here is that Redman is probably a better back in this offense, provided he can keep from fumbling the ball.  Since the Steelers don't have a dominant offensive line that blows guys off the ball, they don't open very many big holes.  Mendenhall can do more with a big hole than Redman, but Redman can make more out of a small hole (or no hole) than Mendenhall.  But, the fumbling problem is a big problem.  He didn't have ball security issues heading into Week 17, so let's just hope that it was a one-game-jitters situation.
4. Ramon Foster got dinged up, Pouncey looked a little sluggish, and I have no idea what kind of shape Legursky is going to be in.  The Steelers don't have a ton of talent up front and starting backups of players that don't have a ton of talent is no way to win a championship.

The biggest piece of bad news is that the hated Ravens also won, which means the Steelers are the 5 seed instead of the 2 seed.  I'm not a big believer in home field advantage when it comes to the playoffs.  The Steelers won three games on the road on their way to Super Bowl XL.  It can be done.  My problem with the  lack of a bye.  I think Roethlisberger and the other walking wounded could've really used that extra week of rest.  In addition, someone else could've done the Steelers a favor and knocked off Baltimore, possibly New England as well.

The two teams that scare me the most in this postseason bracket -- the Patriots and the hated Ravens -- are also the two teams that are in the best position to make a deep run.  That sucks.

But, ultimately, unless the offense can take better care of the ball and seal the deal when they get inside the 20 and the defense can force some turnovers, this is just a really good team that went 12-4 and went to the playoffs this season.

Marty Ball is Back: Steelers at 49ers Preview

When the schedule was released in April, I had this game marked down as a W.  I thought the Monday Night scheduling committee was a bunch of idiots and that they'd be sorry they picked such a runaway blowout as their featured game of the week.  I almost put the W in pen, but instead I decided to just pencil in the win.  That was a good call.

Early on in the season, I wasn't sold on San Francisco.  They started out 1-1 and needed a come back win to beat the Bengals (who I also thought sucked).  Then they came back -- on the road, playing a 1 p.m. game on the east coast -- against the Eagles and beat the Lions in the same set of circumstances.  I should note that this was back when both teams were relevant.  Along the way to a 9-1 start, they crushed Tampa, soundly beat Seattle, and beat the Giants harder than the score might indicate.  They only lost to the Cowboys in overtime and always seemed to make the critical play late in games.  Even though they won nine of their first ten, people were discounting their impressive record because they play in the NFC West, which is the NFL's weakest division.

The thing is that the 49ers played only two division games in their first ten.  Yes, they lost at Baltimore and yes, they choked at Arizona, but they're still a very good team with a legitimate 10-3 record.  You may ask who have they played to get to 10-3, but you may not like the answer if you're a Steeler fan.  They've beaten: Cleveland, Arizona, Seattle, Cincinnati, Tampa, Detroit, Washington, Philly, and the Giants.  They lost to Dallas, Arizona, and the hated Ravens.  The Steelers, at 10-3,  beat a fair number of those teams and they also had the benefit of playing Jacksonville, Indy, and Tennessee, whereas the 49ers had to play the AFC North, which currently has three wining teams (plus Cleveland).

Both teams are 10-3, both teams have two non-conference wins, both teams couldn't beat the hated Ravens.  Both teams are looking to run the ball, stop the run, protect the football, and hit some big plays in the passing game.

There are three distinct factors that are working in San Francisco's favor, though:

1. The 49ers are remarkably good at playing "Marty Ball" (protect the football, run the ball, play well on defense and special teams, be conservative) and they're way better at it than the Steelers are.
2. Ben Roethlisberger may not play and will be limited even if he does play.
3. The game is in San Francisco.

This 49ers team reminds me a lot of the Marty Schottenheimer teams of the 80s and 90s and the Cowher teams of the 90s and early 00s.  They run the ball well, they stop the run, they control the clock, they play solid defense, they don't turn the ball over, and they make enough plays in the passing game to win a lot more often than they lose.  Basically, they're trying to make you play their game by their rules, then make a play in the fourth quarter.  They have some star power on defense, but the sum of the parts is greater than the whole. Just like with all those Cowher teams, the defense is weaker without Patrick Willis, but it is not weak.  It's just like when Kirkland, Greene, Lloyd, Gildon, Woodson, Lake, Perry, Porter, and Chad Brown left.  The defense was weaker at times and in spots, but it was far from weak.  This season, the Steelers have been without Aaron Smith, Kiesel, Farrior, Troy, Harrison, and Woodley for long stretches, but someone else has stepped up and filled the void in the system.

San Francisco has some talent at receiver, but no one that strikes fear in defenses.  If there's an issue, it's with Vernon Davis, since neither Polamalu nor Ryan Clark can cover Davis man-to-man and the defense has had problems with versatile tight ends this season (the first game against the hated Ravens and, early on last week, they made the tight end for the Browns look like a Pro Bowler).  I have confidence that Ike Taylor can handle Michael Crabtree, so the real issue is Davis, at least in the passing game.

Frank Gore is the modern day equivalent of Barry Foster or Bam Morris, but he's way more talented than either of those guys.  He has their toughness and strength and adds superior vision and speed.  They'll look to get him involved early and often and stopping him is what the Steeler defense should focus on.  The problem there is that the 49ers use a number of different personnel groupings and formations to keep run defenses off balance and to hide the direction of the play, so it will take a solid effort from everyone.

The key differentiator, what will turn the game in the Steelers favor, is Ben Roethlisberger.  All those great Cowher teams had one fatal flaw: They were usually at a disadvantage when it came to the quarterback position.  If Roethlisberger suits up, he's a significantly better player than Alex Smith.  Think of the big games those Cowher teams lost to and think about the quarterbacks they faced.  They beat a young Bledsoe, Kelly Holcomb, Elvis Grbac, Chad Pennington, Vinny Testaverde... um Jim Harbaugh, as it turns out.  They lost to guys like Jim Kelly, John Elway, Steve McNair, an experienced Drew Bledsoe, and Tom Brady.  The obvious exception would be Stan Humphries.  I'm only going through 2004, since Cowher changed his strategy and got away from Marty Ball during the 2005 run.  He also had more talent at the skill position on offense and he had Roethlisberger, who had a hell of a postseason until he got to the Super Bowl.

When the Cowher teams said, "We're going to possess the ball, play smashmouth football, and play keepaway from your fancy quarterback," the fancy quarterback usually replied, "But... I still get the ball, right?  I'll get it at some point, won't I?  If so, while you guys are staging six minute drives that end in punts and eight minute drives that end in field goals, I'll just go out and score touchdowns."  That's how things will play out on Monday night if Roethlisberger suits up.

If he plays, the 49ers will need to get away from Marty Ball in order to win.  That doesn't seem practical to me, since they've basically got their playoff seeding set and they won't want to show too many new wrinkles on film for the postseason.  But, Jim Harbaugh is an extremely competitive guy.  Maybe he has it in him.

If Roethlisberger doesn't play, then the Steelers are sunk.  They're just not good enough without him to play this game by Marty's/Cowher's/Harbaugh's rules and win.  And the 49ers are far, far too good at playing that game to lose.

So, this prediction is assuming that Roethlisberger plays, which I think he will.

Prediction:

Steelers 21, San Francisco 17

Good News and Bad News: Browns at Steelers

I gave myself a "cooling off" period on Friday before posting anything.  Then the weekend happened and I ran out of time, so here we are.

It's a good thing that it took me a while to get around to this, because I successfully cooled off and we heard some news about the injuries to Pouncey and Roethlisberger.  That's the big good news.  Both guys say that they're in pain, but they'll fight through it.  Roethlisberger is wearing a boot, but is expected to start.  Pouncey says he'll be out there, but he said that about the Super Bowl.  I'll believe it when I see it, but I really hope that he doesn't push himself to go out there too early.  The Steelers will need him in January.

It was an ugly, stressful, frustrating game for me.  However, the good news behind all that is that the Steelers won and neither Roethlisberger nor Pouncey was placed on injured reserve.  A win is a win, Antonio Brown is awesome, and the defense can be trusted to put the game away provided that they're playing the Browns or Bengals.  I guess we'll see what happens should the game against the 49ers come down to the wire.

Other than that, this game raised some issues that, I think, were bigger than the game itself:

1. I'll say that Ben Roethlisberger is a warrior and that he turned in a gutty performance on Thursday night.  His determination was the difference in that game.  Having said that, Roethliberger is an idiot for going out on the field in the condition he was in and Mike Tomlin is, at best, wildly irresponsible for allowing Roethlisberger to go back in.  I know the Steelers have better doctors than me, but I find it hard to believe that they can wheel Roethlisberger to the locker room, get an x-ray, analyze the x-ray, make a decision based on that x-ray, tape up the ankle, and get him back out there in 20 minutes.  My guess is that he came in, got the x-ray, starting getting it taped up, heard that it wasn't broken, and declared that he was playing in the second half.  At that point, Tomlin should have told him no and close the issue, but he didn't.  That could be chalked up to an error in judgement and trusting his player, but I think there's a larger issue.
2. The larger issue is that Charlie Batch should not be on the roster.  In the last four minutes of the first half, you could tell that the Steelers were just trying to get off the field, not turn the ball over, and wait for halftime so they could re-group.  That's fine.  The fact that a hobbled Roethlisberger took the field in the second half says that the Steelers would trust pretty much anyone behind center over Batch.  If you take away Roethlisberger's mobility, his ability to step into throws (and throw deep), and his ability to move around in the pocket, then you have to strip down the offense.  At that point, you essentially have Charlie Batch: Roethlisberger without the arm, mobility, and ability to extend the play.  If you have the option of an injured Roethlisberger being about as effective as a healthy Batch, why put risk further injury to Roethlisberger?  Sure, you could argue that only Roethlisberger could have made that fourth quarter touchdown throw to Brown, but you could also argue that Ben just threw the ball 15 yards and Brown took it the other 64.  If you don't trust Batch, what about Dennis Dixon?  The league changed the rules this year so that the third quarterback doesn't need to be inactive on game days.  Dixon was inactive on Thursday, but I don't think we'll see that again on Monday night, just in case Roethlisberger suffers a setback.
3. I wouldn't be mad if James Harrison got suspended for his hit on Colt McCoy.  I understand the arguments for being in the heat of the moment and everything happening between the whistles, but he has a history for helmet-to-helmet hits.  He's been fined.  The only way to teach him to approach certain situations differently is to force him to miss a game or two.  From what I've been able to ascertain -- again, never met the guy, just going off of what I've read and heard -- he's a better teammate than he is a person.  This is a guy that broke this eye socket, took a play off, then went back in the game because he didn't want to let his team down.  I've defended Harrison in the past, but I can't defend him here.  Once he realizes that his reckless style of play hurts his team, he'll tone it down.  If he doesn't tone it down, he's going to hurt someone, namely himself.
4. Pat Schurmur has some explaining to do.  I can actually understand pushing Roethlisberger out there for the second half on some level.  If he desperately wanted to take the field, he can walk with a cane when he's 60.  If he had a concussion... you only get one brain.  Troy and Hines had concussion-like symptoms earlier this season and they were immediately taken out of the game and not allowed back in.  They had tests after the game, but they weren't allowed back in.  Once they cleared those post-game tests, they were re-assessed during the week leading up to the next game.  McCoy says he doesn't remember the fourth quarter of Thursday's game, which might help to explain his performance.  At this point, Schurmur lost the game, may lose McCoy for the season, and probably has a letter on his desk from the league office.  Add that to a 4-9 record and that's not exactly what Schurmur had hoped for when the season began.

Ultimately, they won and so did the hated Ravens and that's all that matters.  They kept pace and they need to continue to do that.  We'll see what happens with the balance of the season.

Stop the Mighty Ginger: Bengals at Steelers Preview

For those of you that don't read the ol' blog regularly, the Mighty Ginger is Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton.  I call him that because he's already playing pretty damn well and he looks like this.

Dalton's stats haven't been overly impressive thus far this year -- he has 16 touchdown passes, 12 interceptions, and an 81.1 quarterback rating -- but he's proven to be more than capable of leading this young team to victory.  Cincinnati is 7-4 and they're 4-2 the road.  Had AJ Green not gotten hurt in the last game between these two teams, the Bengals could be 8-3 and the Steelers could be 8-3.  However, I'm not a big fan of "what if" scenarios, because that's basically saying, "if the things that caused me to lose had not happen, I would have won."  That means Cincy is 7-4 and the Steelers are 8-3 and neither team can afford to lose ground to Baltimore, which holds a tiebreaker over both teams.

Everything that I wrote in the last preview is still true.  These are two fairly evenly matched teams.  The Bengals are no longer the Bungles.  AJ Green is a hell of a player and Ike Taylor will have his hands full on Sunday.  They have an accomplished couple of cornerbacks and a solid front seven.  Their safeties are still suspect, but taking advantage of that would require Mike Wallace to hold onto the ball.  But, really, I'm not saying he can't do that.  He had a bad game against Kansas City and I think that he will make up for that on Sunday.

The thing is that not too much has changed since the last game.  Polamalu may be limited and may not play, but LaMarr Woodley will be back, Farrior will be back, and James Harrison is healthy.  As a matter of fact, this is the healthiest this team has been all season.  They'll also have Emmanuel Sanders back, which helps the return game.

Really, this is a game that they won about three weeks ago and should win again.  The big thing they need to keep in mind is Dalton.  He's no longer just some rookie quarterback.  I'm not promoting him to the upper tier of quarterbacks in the NFL, but he's better and more dangerous in the fourth quarter than the likes of Curtis Painter, Blaine Gabbert, or even Cam Newton and Christian Ponder.  Dalton has five fourth quarter comebacks this season and was one William Gay interception away from having six.

Perhaps the most important thing to keep in mind here is that Dalton is better than Tyler Palko.  The Steelers are healthy, they're more talented than the Bengals, and they're playing at home.  They could very well jump out to another early 14-0 lead on Cincinnati.  If that happens, they need to keep their foot on the gas and put as much distance between themselves and the Bengals on the scoreboard as possible.  Dalton's not John Freakin' Elway or even Frank Reich, but he's plenty good enough to overcome a deficit on the road against a team that's trying to sit on a lead (like they did against the Chiefs and Jaguars).

If they take care of the ball, force a couple of turnovers, stay aggressive, and keep the Mighty Ginger in check, they shouldn't have any problems winning this game.  That's a lot of "ifs" but I still think they get it done.

Prediction:
Steelers 23, Bengals 17

Let's Do This: Hated Ravens at Steelers Preview

Heading into Sunday night's game, there is only one thing I know for sure: The Steelers won't get blown out like they did in Week 1.  Other than that, I am not sure about anything.

I don't think it will be a high-scoring affair.  I don't think the Steelers will blow the hated Ravens out and that makes me sad.  I think the Steelers can (and will) win this game, but I don't know that for sure.  There will be no Flacco Jersey bets this year. 

Well, I guess I know two other things for sure: I know that I'm very excited for the game and I know what they need to do to win.  Just like with the Patriots, it's pretty easy to figure out how to beat Baltimore.  The actual execution is the difficult part.

Don't Turn the Ball Over:

This is kind of a general thing, but it was certainly overlooked on opening day.  It's true that the Steelers have turned the ball over 13 times and the hated Ravens have forced 16 turnovers.  But, if you take into account that seven of those turnovers/takeaways came in the first game, the Steelers have only given the ball up six times in seven games and Baltimore has only taken it away nine times in six games.  That's still a big number for the HR, but they had four more takeaways against the Jets, which means five in five games. 

Um... Let's just keep with, "Don't turn the ball over."

Since the Steelers can't seem to force any turnovers this year, they'll need to hang onto the ball to win.  Turning it over once probably means losing the turnover battle and that can't happen.

Contain Ray Rice:

This has the second lowest easy-to-type/difficult-to-execute ratio.  Rice is an elusive, explosive, athletic player that has great vision, catches the ball well, and is tough to bring down.  We saw that first hand in Week 1 and pretty much throughout his career.  Like with Maurice Jones-Drew, there's no real way to completely shut him down; you just need to limit the damage he does.

The defensive line has been much better in terms of gap discipline and attacking the line of scrimmage the last five games, so that's part of the solution.  The fact that LaMarr Woodley and James Farrior probably won't play is a big problem.  If the d-line can get him moving east-to-west, the linebackers -- even if they're not the starters -- should be able to close on him and bring him down.  James Harrison looks like he might return, which means that Lawrence Timmons can move back to the inside.  That's a key factor in containing Rice.  Not containing him as a runner, but making sure he doesn't kill you catching checkdowns from Joe Flacco.

In the past, Rice has still been a big factor in games where the Steelers have bottled him up as a runner.  He's accomplished this by catching a four yard dump-off pass and turning it into a ten yard gain.  The Steelers need to have a spy on Rice at all times.  Troy makes the most sense, but he'll be busy roaming around the secondary and hopefully causing problems for Flacco there.  That means Timmons needs to get back to his Team Assassin ways and focus on murdering Ray Rice.  I think it can be done and I think Timmons (v 2010) would be the man for the job.

Suggs and Ngata:

Here's your lowest easy-to-type/difficult-to-execute ratio.  These two guys have destroyed the Steelers the past few years and were particularly destructive in Week 1.  Yes, Ed Reed and Ray Lewis still make plays, but Suggs and Ngata just seem to straight-up murder them.  I think the pass protection has improved since Max Starks came back and I think Starks is a big upgrade over Jonathan Scott, but there's only so much lipstick you can put on this situation.  Ramon Foster is an upgrade over Legursky and a healthy Kemo will fare better against Ngata than the last time out, but neither guy is in Ngata's class.

Just like with Ray Rice, there's no way to take these guys completely out of the game.  You just need to know where they are, know where they're going, and try like hell to stop them.  If Foster, Pouncey, Kemo, and Starks win more battles than they lose, then the Steelers can win.  If Ngata and Suggs go off like they did in Week 1, well you saw the results.

Pass to Set Up the Run:

This is a good idea for two reasons: It has worked the past few weeks and it lets the Steelers know what they're working with early.  Ben Roethlisberger threw the ball a lot more in the first half the past few weeks -- especially against New England -- and they were able to move the ball and get some open space in the running game.  Historically, open space in the running game has been extremely rare against the hated Ravens, so this strategy is worth a shot.  My thinking is that there won't be a whole lot of things that go well for the Steelers on offense and they may as well find out how poorly things are going to go as early as possible.

If they work Roethlisberger out of the shotgun early, then he'll have more time to get rid of the ball and they'll be able to gauge Baltimore's plan on defense.  If the hated Ravens bring the house, then I think Roethlisberger will shred them, since he's been very effective against the blitz thus far this season.  If they rush four or five guys and get to him almost immediately, then it's time to try something different.  The issue in the first game was that Suggs and Ngata were in Roethlisberger's face as soon as he said "Hut" so Baltimore didn't need to blitz that much.  If they're not successful rushing four or five guys -- meaning Suggs and Ngata are being somewhat contained -- then they'll start sending more guys and then they're screwed.

So...

I think it's possible that the Steelers can accomplish all these things, but I don't know how likely it is.  I would love to see a blow out -- I hate the hated Ravens, I'm playing a guy this week who has Rice, Flacco, and Baltimore's defense, I hate the hated Ravens -- but who would be stupid enough to predict something like that?

I think it's close.  I think the Steelers win more of these battles than they lose.  I think, in the end, Roethlisberger makes all the difference.

Prediction:
Steelers 17, Hated Ravens 13

Good News and Bad News: Patriots at Steelers

As I always say: Every time I pick the Steelers to lose, I hope and pray that I'm wrong.  That means I'm glad I was wrong about this game.  Sunday's game was a pretty impressive display by the home team, with more good news than bad.

Good news first:

1. The big story lines on Monday morning were about how Ben Roethlisberger outdueled Tom Brady, but I think the biggest story from this game was how well the secondary played.  Ike Taylor was already having a big year, but supporting guys like William Gay, Cortez Allen, and Keenan Lewis really picked up their games.  I was surprised (and relieved) to see how well they all played in man coverage.  In general, the Zone Blitz scheme involves more blitzing and zone schemes -- hence the name -- but it was refreshing to see the Steelers take a break from what usually works for them and actually try something that had a good chance of working against the offense they matched up against.  Everyone in the defensive backfield kept the intensity up all game, didn't give up a big play, and tackled well.
2. I was talking to someone yesterday and they mentioned that the pass rush has been much improved since Brett Keisel came back.  I agree with that, but I also think LaMarr Woodley had a little something to do with the resurgence.  I think Casey Hampton is playing himself back into game shape and Ziggy Hood/Cameron Heyward keep improving game by game.  This is still a unit that has an age problem, but they're starting to silence some of the critics that said they were too old and too slow after the opener against the hated Ravens.
3. Again, I must be desensitized to pressure on Roethlisberger, because I was surprised to find out that the Patriots sacked him five times on Sunday and recorded four quarterback hits in addition to the sacks.  I thought the offensive line continued to play well and improve.  I thought they looked especially sharp in pass protection.  If they can field the same starting five for the third week in a row in Week 9 against Baltimore, they can really start to build something good.  I'm not going to say "special" or "great," because I don't think this group has that much upside.  I would be more than satisfied with "good" at this point, especially considering how poorly they've played in stretches over the past few seasons.
4. New England converted 30 percent of their first downs (3 of 10) and the Steelers converted 62.5 percent of theirs (10 of 16).  That's a huge swing.
5. Time of possession was also a huge factor, with the Steelers winning that battle 39:22-20:38.  They did that by dropping back to pass on 55 of 78 plays, which proves that they can be just as efficient throwing the ball and playing keepaway now as they were running the ball and playing keepaway during the Cowher Era.  They ended up with only 98 yards rushing, but they also averaged 4.3 yards per attempt, so I'm fine with that.  I don't think that they need to pile up a bunch of yards, they just need to be efficient when they run the ball.

Bad news is mostly injury-related:

1. It looks like Lawrence Timmons -- who still doesn't have a sack this year -- could be the only healthy starting linebacker against the hated Ravens.  Woodley has a hamstring issue, James Harrison is recovering from eye surgery (really can't rush back from something like that), and James Farrior could be out until December with a calf injury.  Marcus Gilbert got hurt again.  It seems to be something slightly different every game, but he also comes out every game.  I think the Steelers should just rest him a week or so and make sure he's completely healthy.  He's a young player that wants to impress the other guys on the roster, so he may be overstating how good he's feeling week to week.
2. If I were a Patriots fan, I'd be thinking that my team got pretty well dominated in all phases of the game, but still only lost by eight.  That would be the good news for New England and part of the bad news for the Steelers.  This is their third dominant performance of the season: Tennessee and Arizona were the other two -- but it's the first time where they pushed the other team around and weren't comfortably in the lead in the fourth quarter.
3. The Steelers didn't blow the Patriots out because they were 2-for-5 in the red zone and didn't force any turnovers.  It's true that they're turning the ball over a lot less on offense, but they're still not forcing any turnovers on defense.  At the half way point in the season, they've forced a total of three turnovers and they've converted only half of their red zone opportunities into touchdowns.  That needs to improve if they're going to actually be the favorite in the AFC, as opposed to the chic pick of the week in the AFC.
4. Shaun Suisham missed another field goal, giving him five misses in 18 attempts.  Those five missed field goals are the most in the NFL.  His 72.2 percent conversion rate is 30th in the league.  I know Heinz Field is a tough place to kick, but there seem to be a number of younger, better guys lying on the scrap heap right now.  Jeff Reed is also available.  If nothing else, the Steelers should bring a few guys in to have a look at them.  Kickers have been getting more and more accurate -- and from longer distances -- over the years, but Suisham has not kept pace.  The Steelers need to find someone who can keep pace.  Jeff Reed is also available.

Don't get me wrong, I'm excited about the fact that I was wrong and that the Steelers won.  I was overjoyed and fairly drunk on Sunday.  The problem is that I don't think they're the team to beat at this point.

Yes, they're leading their division.  Yes, they just beat the Patriots and hold an important tiebreaker for playoff seeding.  Yes, they have a solid defense and an outstanding quarterback.  Yes, the AFC is down this year due to the fact that Peyton Manning has not played and no one seems to want to win the AFC West.

There's still the red zone issue.  There's still the turnovers issue.  There's still a shaky kicker and an offensive line that is being held together by duct tape.  There's the fact that their depth has been tested a bunch already and we're only eight games into the season.  Injuries tend to pile up towards the end of the year and there are limits to every team's depth.  They can't withstand more injuries to the offensive line, defensive line, or linebackers. 

Homefield advantage is nice, but history -- especially Steeler history -- has proven that it doesn't guarantee a Super Bowl.  They're one of the best teams in AFC, but I don't think they're the team to beat just yet.

They still need to beat the hated Ravens on Sunday night.  Wins against the Chiefs and 49ers would help.  They can't choke against the Bengals or Browns.  But, I guess you can still call them the team to beat this week if you really, really want to.

Good News and Bad News: Steelers vs Jaguars

I tried to get started on writing this a number of times yesterday and really couldn't come up with an angle.  It's basically the same story as it was against the Seahawks and the Colts: The Steelers won, they did some things well, but it's not as though there was any catharsis behind the victory.  Week 5 against the Titans was a catharsis game.  They took out all the frustration and anxiety of the season out on an opponent that thought they had a chance to win, but didn't know what hit them.

Unlike most situations, you root for the bully when they're your team.  It's a guilty pleasure, because everyone still gets paid regardless of the outcome, you just hope no one gets seriously injured.  If your team beats another team senseless, there's a sense of satisfaction and relief.  You're satisfied that you follow a good team and you're relieved that there isn't a fourth quarter/Hail Mary situation like we had on Sunday.  When you expect your team to crush the other team, you're unsatisfied and worried if they don't.  I would say that I'm dissatisfied with Sunday's performance, but I'm not worried.

The Jaguars are a young team and they'll improve.  One of the steps toward improvement is not giving up.  They didn't give up in the second half and everyone was pretty much expecting them to.  I think the second half was more a result of improved effort and execution by Jacksonville than the Steelers slacking off, not being a good team, or not executing properly.  Ben Roethlisberger was off all game, it's just that it was windy in the second half, so that made it look like he took a nosedive.  There were plays to be made, the Steelers just didn't make all of them.  What they did do is make enough plays to win, which is sufficient, even if it's not satisfying.

I'm not worried because the plays were there.  Those plays only need to be made eventually and consistently, not every time.  If a team hit every big play that was available to them, they'd be unstoppable.  I'm not looking for unstoppable, I'm looking for great.  Great means making more plays than you miss.  Roethlisberger may have another "off" game this season, but he won't be this far off very often.  And, even though he was off, he still managed 8.7 yards per attempt and 16.7 yards per completion, and I will take that.

I'm not worried because I'm actually starting to believe that the offensive line will come together and be a good unit.  That's provided they have the same five guys in the starting line-up for consecutive weeks, which hasn't happened yet.  The good news is that they've played fairly well the past few games even though there have been a lot of injuries.  I think the pass protection continues to be consistent and the running game continues to improve.  As he showed, Rashard Mendenhall can do a lot of damage if there's solid blocking in front of him.  He's their best option.  Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer wouldn't have scored a touchdown in the first quarter with the same blocking.  They would've gotten stopped at the one or two yard line and I think we all know how dicey things have been for the Steelers inside the five the past few years.

I'm not worried because William Gay and Ike Taylor have been playing quite well.  Ryan Clark has stepped up his game.  Troy Polamalu has been much more controlled the past two games, but he hasn't lost any of his explosiveness.  More importantly, he passed concussion tests this week, so he should be available for Steelers West.  Brett Keisel made a triumphant return to the line-up.  LaMarr Woodley is playing out of his mind, which makes up for the fact that James Harrison is out.  Farrior and Timmons are much improved, though Timmons looks like he still has room to improve.

The only thing that concerns me is turnovers.  They've done a better job of protecting the ball the past couple of weeks, but they're still not taking it away.  Forcing two turnovers in six games is not getting it done.  As I've mentioned before, turnovers can be the result of tipped passed and lucky bounces, but you also make your own luck.  That's why they call it forcing turnovers.

But, they're also 4-2 after six games and only half a game behind the hated Ravens for the division lead.  Now is not the time to panic.  There will be plenty of time for that later.

Good News and Bad News: Steelers at Texans

Good news first.  Should be able to get this out of the way fairly quickly...

1. Ben Roethlisberger's foot is only sprained, not broken.  He's currently listed as Questionable for next week's game against the Titans.
2. They could have lost by a lot more.
3. Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders looked good returning kicks and Brown stepped up in the passing game.

Now for the bad news...

1. The two "good news" items aren't really good news.
2. I didn't catch a lot of guys out of position or taking bad angles.  On defense, the linemen were all in their gaps, they were doing what they were supposed to be doing, and there were clear pursuit lanes for the linebackers and safeties.  That's not bad.  What's bad is that no one on the defensive line was getting any penetration.  They were getting to their spot, but they were getting thrown to the ground or being held in place instead of getting into the backfield and disrupting things.  Then you add in the fact that pursuit was slow to arrive and a lot of guys broke down in contain (especially Troy and Lawrence Timmons, but everyone was guilty of it at some point).  There weren't many missed assignments on the offensive line.  For the most part, those guys just got pushed around or someone for Houston just ran past them.  Blown assignments and poor gap discipline can be fixed with practice and time.  Being too slow or not strong enough can't be fixed quite as easily.  The offensive line is struggling because the four guys that aren't named Pouncey aren't very good.  Technique and enthusiasm/hustle are there, but there's a talent void.  Timmons has had a bad season thus far, Troy is freelancing too much, James Farrior appears to have lost another half-step, and LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison have not been getting to the quarterback.  Houston has a fantastic offensive line and a solid defense, but they're not that good.  The Steelers made them look significantly better than they are.  Or, maybe the Steelers are significantly worse than we (read: me) think.
3. Zero turnovers forced, bringing the grand total for the season to: One.
4. The final score could easily have been 31-10.  Or possibly worse.  The Texans dominated the Steelers on both sides of the ball and this was the second game this season where they got absolutely mauled in the trenches.
5. When they had a couple of late chances to rally and tie the score against a team filled with notorious choke artists, they couldn't get it done.  Brown set the Steelers up with a first and 10 on the Houston 48 with 3:33 left to play and Roethlisberger and company went four and out.  They had another shot with 1:02 left and Roethlisberger was pressured relentlessly and intercepted.  Not only did they choke against the choke artists, but my prediction of keeping it close in the fourth quarter and stealing a victory turned out to be wrong.  

But, the worst of the bad news is that the big issues -- poor offensive line play and a defense that lacks the ability to hold the line and close in pursuit -- aren't really fixable.  Signing Flozell Adams won't fix the offensive line.  They're three guys shot -- Legursky, Scott, and Colon -- and the two guys that are coming back aren't a considerable improvement over the guys that replaced them.  In addition, there aren't any real quality options on the free agent market beyond Adams, so the Steelers need to play the hand they were dealt and try to make the most of it.  Playing young guys on defense won't fix the issue that the defense is looking awfully slow and weak, since the young guys aren't better than the old guys, they're just younger.  The schedule is too soft for them to start butchering the roster and "get young now" and there would also be too many holes to fill if they decided to replace everyone that was 30 or older.

These were either issues or looming issues last season, but the line wasn't quite as awful as it's been this year and the defense was playing tough in the trenches and forcing at least some turnovers.  With a regression along both lines and no game-changing or game-saving plays from the defense, the rest of the talent on offense can't close the gap against good teams.

That brings us to some actual good news.  Here is a list of the good teams the Steelers will play between now and the end of the season: Patriots, Hated Ravens, possibly Titans.  Which means it's possible that some guys could improve dramatically, some young guys could plug the holes that are leaking the most water, and some team could knock off New England again, thus clearing a path to the Super Bowl.

If nothing else, a light schedule and a healthy Ben Roethlisberger should be enough to get to ten wins.

What to Watch for: Falcons at Steelers

I always like the third preseason game, because it's more like an actual game than any other in the preseason.  The starters will get more time, maybe the starting five on the offensive line will be in the game deep into the third quarter, and you get a better sense for what the team will actually look like when the games start counting.  The fourth preseason game, the starters are usually only in for a series or two and it's pretty depressing to watch, since you know that everyone else involved in the game is playing for their job.

For tonight, I'm going to keep an eye on the following things:

1. I just mentioned the starting five on the offensive line.  But, really, the only position that's completely set is center.  With injuries, the release of Flozell Adams and Max Starks, and general ineffectiveness from the field, we're really not sure who's going to be in the line-up when the season kicks off against the hated Ravens on September 11th.  It would be really nice if a few guys stepped up in this game and gave us a clearer picture.  I'm also interested in finding out who they roll out as the five starters.  Then, of course, how those guys run block and pass protect.  I was impressed by how the collection of walking wounded and back-ups protected Roethlisberger in the second game and I'm hoping they can keep that up, whoever the four guys that are surrounding Pouncey are.
2. Keenan Lewis and William Gay played well against the Eagles and the reps they're getting with the first team will help the defense throughout the course of the season.  But, they're facing off against Roddy White and Julio Jones tonight and that's some tough competition.  I would like to hope that they won't get burned, but I have a bad feeling that they will regress.  Since there's no doubt that they read this blog and are wondering what I have to say, I'm officially issuing a challenge to Lewis and Gay to step up their games and play well tonight.  It's on, guys.  See you at Jack's after the game so we can break down the film.
3. I like the signing of Jerricho Cotchery, but I'm concerned that he wasn't running with the first team in the last game.  Hopefully, he'll be running with them tonight and I can get a better look at him.  With Cotchery, Wallace, Ward, a healthy Emmanuel Sanders, Heath Miller, and the way Antonio Brown has been developing, this could be a very, very potent passing offense.  That's provided, of course, that the offensive line can keep Roethlisberger upright.
4. I want to see how much gas Michael Turner has left in the tank, strictly for Fantasy purposes.  He got a late start in his career, but it seems like he already has a lot of miles on him.  He's pushing 30, which is like 85 in running back years, so it will be good to see how he performs against a great run defense like the Steelers.
5. Similarly, I'm going to have an eye on Matt Ryan, Jones, and White.  Atlanta traded their entire draft to get Jones and I want to see if he's as good as advertised.  The Falcons have no shortage of offensive talent, either, and all those guys are on my Fantasy watch list.
6. The linebackers all have their story lines and I want to keep an eye on them. LaMarr Woodley and Lawrence Timmons both signed huge deals in the offseason.  I want to see if they'll try to go out and earn that money or if they'll sit back and spend the rest of the contract counting it.  James Harrison had a rough offseason and he turned 33 in May.  James Farrior took a big step back in 2009 after a solid 2008 and he turned 36 in January.  Surprisingly, I'm not that worried about the defensive line, since they have plenty of quality, young depth, even if the average age of the starting three is death.
7. On both sides, I want to watch timing.  It has seemed off thus far this preseason -- which is understandable, considering that there weren't any team-sponsored practices in the offseason -- but all NFL team have had a few weeks to get that ironed out.  Really, I'm watching to see if it's still pretty far off and timing issues will drag out into the regular season.

I usually try to figure out what the Steelers need to do to win the game, but I have to say that I don't care if they win or lose this one.  I'm just watching out for the items discussed above.

Steelers Primer

Well, the lockout finally ended, the players and coaches are going back to work, and there have been roughly 6,054 transactions in the last few days.

The big question on everyone's mind -- at least in this little corner of the Internet -- is: How do the Steelers look?

The answer to that question is that they look both good and bad and that we'll know more on August 4th, which is the deadline for all teams to get under the salary cap.  In 2009, the cap was around $127 million, there was no cap in 2010, and the cap sits at about $120 million this season.  Heading into the post-lockout era, the Steelers were about $10 million over the new cap.

Out of those 6,054 transactions, the Steelers re-signed Shaun Suisham, Ike Taylor, Willie Colon, and Jonathan Scott.  The signings of Colon and Scott were particularly important, since they also cut Flozell Adams and Max Starks.  They cut Randle-El, but I'm not sure that's really important.  Without Scott and Colon, there was a .03 percent chance that I might be starting for the Steelers at left tackle this season.  While this would be an awesome development for me, it probably wouldn't have worked out too well for the Steelers.

Rumors that I've seen on Twitter and elsewhere say that LaMarr Woodley is close to signing a long term contract and there are five guys on the team that will probably restructure their contracts so that no one else will need to be cut from the roster.  In addition, it looks like Starks and Adams may come back eventually at a more palatable rate.  All these things will help them field a full team.

Taylor's contract was the biggest news of this truncated offseason.  He may not be a shutdown cornerback and he may have the worst hands in the league, but he's the best cover player on the team and was the best option available by far, if you assume they weren't going to sign Nnamdi Asomugha (they wouldn't, not in a million truncated free agent periods).  I didn't think the Steelers would pony up the money to re-sign Ike and I'm extremely happy that he's back.

With no mini-camps, rookie camps, and OTAs this offseason, everyone they drafted in April doesn't stand much a chance of contributing in 2011.  But, Tomlin hates rookies, so that's not a huge loss.  Maurkice Pouncey is not walking through that door.  Cameron Heyward will probably get some playing time after Aaron Smith goes on injured reserve and Curtis Brown and Cortez Allen will probably play on special teams and maybe, possibly, Baron Batch will get some third down reps as Verron Haynes Junior.

Currently, the starting five on the offensive line looks like this: Scott, Kemoeatu, Pouncey, Legursky/Foster, Colon.  That's not good.  I'd rather have Starks and Adams in there and I don't trust Scott, but that's mainly because he's an unknown quantity.  The offensive line actually played pretty well last season and held themselves together despite a rash of injuries, so lightning might strike twice.  If everyone stays healthy, they'll improve and grow together throughout the course of the season.  At least we know who's starting at center.

That's where they look bad.


Where they look good is everywhere else.  Mendenhall may be a fumble machine, but he has also performed well as the starter the past two seasons.  Ben Roethlisberger is an alleged rapist and a newlywed, but he's also one of the best quarterbacks in the league.  Mike Wallace and Hines Ward got the job done last season and Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown get the chance to build on what they accomplished late last season.

Everyone from last season's #1 scoring defense returns.  Troy is healthy.  James Harrison is angry.  Hopefully, Woodley will be happy after signing a sweet deal.  Clark, Taylor, McFadden, Keisel, Smith are all back and healthy.  I haven't heard anything about Jerry Springer needing to rescue Casey Hampton from being trapped on his couch.  Ziggy Hood had a great year last year and is currently starting ahead of Smith.  If they're lucky, Farrior won't have a letdown in 2011 after a solid 2010 like he did in 2009 after a solid 2008.  Lawrence Timmons is an outstanding player and should once again act as team assassin.

I have a feeling that we are going to see some absolutely sucktastic football in the month of September.  Guys haven't had the offseason to get ready.  Their timing will be off.  There will be blown assignments on defense.  There will be a lot of pre-snap penalties.  Any team that has been in the same system, running the same plays for years, will have an advantage.

Here are the guys that have been in the defense since Dick LeBeau took over in 2004: Smith, Taylor, Hampton, Keisel, Farrior, Polamalu, Harrison.  Of the remaining guys, Hood, Woodley, and Timmons have played their entire careers in the system. And Clark is the free safety.  The Steelers will have a decided advantage over most of the rest of the league because of their familiarity with the system.

On offense, here are the guys that have been in the Arians system since he took over in 2007: Ward, Roethlisberger, Miller.  Well... that list isn't as long.  But, Mendenhall, Wallace, Sanders, and Brown have been in this system their entire careers.  Everyone else is on the offensive line and we already talked about that.

Add in what, ostensibly, looks like an easy schedule against the AFC South and NFC West, and the Steelers are sitting pretty.

And... that's it.

Wait, what?  Off the field and the what now?

Ward got busted for a DUI, Mendenhall Tweeted some unfortunate things, and Harrison had bad things to say about everything going back to the Big Bang.  Many experts that make way more money than me have postulated that these distractions will erode the chemistry in the locker room and eventually tear the team apart.

For the most part, these experts view an NFL locker room as a delicate ecosystem where, if Mendenhall flaps his wings (get it? Flaps his wings?  Birds have wings?  Birds tweet?) then a tsunami is going to destroy the team.  Well, that could be in different locker rooms.  But, these guys have all been showering in front of each other for a long time.  They know each other.  They trust each other.  They all work together and have managed to keep off field stuff off the field.

Think of it like any working relationship.  Would your company fold if Bill in sales got a DUI?  Do you care about what Connie in marketing does on Twitter?  If Joe in operations said that everyone in HR was a bunch of idiots, would someone in HR refuse to give him a leave request form?  No, everyone would work together and do their jobs, because it's their job to do their jobs. 

Tomlin is too strong a leader and this locker room is too unified for some offseason indiscretions to tear it all down.  I think that they will have moved on from everything that happened during the lockout by the time the season starts, if they haven't all moved on already.

So, overall, the Steelers look good.  With a Woodley signing and some much-needed cap relief, they could be even better.

The Harrison Situation

Earlier today, news broke out that James Harrison did an interview with Men's Journal and had some not-so-nice things to say about Roger Goodell and his fellow teammates.  He specifically called out Ben Roethlisberger for throwing two interceptions in the Super Bowl and for trying to act like Peyton Manning, when he's clearly not.  He called Rashard Mendenhall a "fumble machine" and had some unkind words for the Patriots, particularly Rodney Harrison and Tedy Bruschi, but those comments are fine. 

Let's just accept the fact that running his mouth off was a dumb idea and move on to what this means for Harrison and the Steelers.

Will Goodell suspend Harrison?

Well, Harrison is hardly alone in thinking that Goodell is a tyrant and a petulant child that likes to suspend anyone when he gets a boo-boo face.  Harrison is just the first person to say something as blunt as, "If that man was on fire and I had to piss to put him out, I wouldn't do it."  He also called Goodell a "devil" and used some other choice adjectives to describe him.

But, the thing is, if everyone thinks Goodell is a dictator, the best course of action would not be to arbitrarily suspend Harrison for calling him out on it.  That would just perpetuate the image and Goodell is smart enough and logical enough to avoid stooping to Harrison's level.

Also, I've heard rumors that the Steelers might suspend Harrison for at least one game.  That's not a huge punishment, but it's at least something and should keep the NFL from levying any fines or suspensions.

Will the Steelers release James Harrison?

I don't think they will.  I actually think that one of the reasons Harrison ran his mouth so much is that the coaches and owners aren't allowed to talk to him because of the Lockout.  It could be that he thought that, by the time everyone reported back to camp, this whole thing would have blown over and Tomlin and the Rooneys would have more important matters to attend to than yelling at him for being stupid.


But, ultimately, he's too good at what he does and he's too important to the team to cut him.  If Nick Eason said what Harrison said, they'd cut him in a heart beat.  The Hines Ward situation is similar, but at least there are courts of law and actual, structured league policies to govern those kinds of things.

On top of that, as I've stated repeatedly, the Steelers don't run a squeaky clean organization.  They run a winning organization and having Harrison on the team gives them a better chance of winning football games.  We all just need to accept that and move on.

They didn't cut him when he possibly assaulted his girlfriend in 2008, they didn't cut him last season when he was heavily fined and lashed out against Goodell, and they didn't cut him when he threatened to retire during the 2010 season.

The Steelers have consistently taken a "wait and see" approach with Harrison and he has been consistently productive every time they've looked the other way.  The alleged incident I linked to up there happened in March 2008 and Harrison won the Defensive Player of the Year award that season, so maybe he'll be awesome this year (if the Lockout ever ends).

But, this is different.  He didn't just bad mouth Goodell and those dirty, stinking Patriots, he also bad mouthed his teammates.  So, should they cut him?

Here's the thing: We don't know the context of the interview.  Harrison's a competitive guy that just wants to play football.  He hasn't had any OTAs or mini-camps to keep him busy and, for the past five months, there's been no 2011 season to focus on.  He's just had that one game bouncing around in his head all offseason.  Given that mindset -- and knowing Harrison -- the interviewer probably didn't have to prod him too hard to get him rolling on different issues.

I wasn't there, I don't have any idea, but my thinking is that Men's Journal had something in mind for the piece before they interviewed him and it would have been a natural tendency to push Harrison in that direction.  Then he got rolling and said a lot of stupid things.

The other thing is that I just wrote, "knowing Harrison" a couple of paragraphs ago.  He seems like a salty, abrasive dude, but I haven't met him, I've never spoken with him, and I don't know him.  The guys that do know him -- and have spent their entire careers in the same locker room with him -- are Roethlisberger and Mendenhall and they're the ones that really matter.

Mendenhall and Roethlisberger have both stated publicly that they are fine with Harrison's comments and Roethlisberger mentioned that Harrison called him the morning that the article was published to the web and explained the situation.  Mendenhall Tweeted that, "I dont have a problem with what [Harrison] said because I know him."

First of all, they're saying all of this because they're better teammates than Harrison.  Second of all, they're trying to diffuse the situation.  Finally, they understand that this situation will only stop being an issue (football-wise) once they all sit down together and talk it out in the locker room.  Roethlisberger and Mendenhall know Harrison.  The Rooneys know Harrison and they've been through a lot with him in the past three years and change.

The major issue at hand is whether or not Harrison and his comments will cause problems in the locker room and/or divide the locker room into offense vs. defense.  If Harrison's comments end up doing this, then it makes sense to release him.  It doesn't look as though this will be an issue, but, as I said, the Steelers will adopt a "wait and see" approach.  If he causes issues, then they will cut him. 

I've also never been in an NFL locker room.  From what I can gather from TV, it's a bunch of massive, naked, sweaty men yelling at each other.  Chances are that there have been worse things said in the Steelers locker room than what Harrison said in the interview.  Case and point: Harrison's team nickname is Silverback, because he reminds his teammates of a gorilla.  This is not intended to defend Harrison.  He said some foolish, offensive, and inflammatory things and that was not wise.  But, the things he said, once put in perspective of the fact that his teammates nicknamed a large, black man after a primate, seem less intense.

Ultimately, Roethlisberger, Mendenhall, and the Rooneys will realize that they are not in the business of being nice guys.  They are in the business of winning football games.  James Harrison improves their chances of winning more games.  Once everyone accepts that, the sooner this issue will go away.

More Super Bowl Thoughts

Is everyone ready for Media Day? I think I am. I think I actually need to look at some of these Packers players in order to see how ready they are. There isn't a lot of Super Bowl experience on this team or this coaching staff, so I want to see how they will react to the scope of the event. I think that was one of the things that really affected the Steelers in Super Bowl XXX. They were talented, they were ready, they were excited, but the Cowboys were experienced and knew what to expect and knew what to do.

I saw an interview with Aaron Rodgers last week and his eyes were bugged out. He usually has that bugged out look when he's on the field, but at that point he's full of adrenaline and it's expected. When you're doing an interview with Fox, you need to tone it down a notch. If he's this fired up a week before the event, he'll either wear himself out or be too hyped up. I need to look at him tomorrow and look at his team mates and go from there. I'm still undecided on this game.

Looking ahead, I think there are some interesting things in store for the future.

I think Jeremy Kampinos is going to be the punter next season, provided there is a next season. I love Danny Vulva and I think he's great. I think Kampinos is about as good and he doesn't have two dodgy knees. It's nothing personal against Vulva. I love me some Vulva. But, I think his time has passed and I think that he suffers from being an injury-prone player at a position where there is a long line of acceptable substitutes.

Dick LeBeau's contract expires after this season. This season is ending very, very soon. I don't think that the Steelers are in danger of losing him to another team, but I think it's very possible that he retires after this season, especially if the Steelers win. He's been a head coach and he's been a defensive coordinator on other teams, so I don't think he's going to jump ship to coach for another team. He seems to have a real connection with his players and the Steeler organization. I don't think that he leaves for a different and/or better opportunity. He has championship rings and he's in the Hall of Fame. He's accomplished everything that he can accomplish in the league. The only question is whether or not he still feels he has more to do; whether or not he wants to keep going. He's kind of like Dick Hoak in that regard. The Steelers will keep renewing his contract and keep paying him as long as he wants to stay. And that's fine with me.

Maurkice Pouncey's brother Mike is in this year's draft class. He's projected as a first round pick, but he plays guard, which is not a position that many teams invest a first round pick in. He skipped out on the Senior Bowl for reasons that are not entirely clear, which could work against him come draft day. That means he just might be available when the Steelers pick at 31st or 32nd overall. How cool would that be? Two Pounceys -- twins, no less -- on the same team. I like this plan. I'm excited to be a part of it. Maurkice has already established himself on the team and he was voted to the Pro Bowl. Having two twin brothers on the same team -- nonetheless the same offensive line, playing right next to each other -- could be a recipe for disaster. But, it could also be a recipe for awesome. I'm going with the latter, because they've played alongside each other their entire lives and they've been successful.

If the Steelers win, I think Hines Ward and Aaron Smith retire at the least. Possibly also LeBeau. Possibly James Harrison, depending on how the refs call the game.

Steelers-Bengals Preview Take Two

See? That rhymes? I'm such a word smith.

I think the Steelers face the same issues coming into this game as they did heading into the last game. The only comfort is that this game is at home... where the Steelers are 3-2 and they're 6-1 on the road. Maybe scratch that comfort.

The Bengals have dropped nine straight, they gave up 49 points to the Bills, and they threw a way a game to New Orleans last week, so they're not exactly swimming in motivation or confidence right now. They're still designed to beat the Steelers and they still hate us more than we hate them -- this would be a bigger win for Cincinnati than it would be for the Steelers -- so that's a problem.

The only thing I keep thinking about is that they may have even less to play for in this game than a 2-10 team ordinarily would. Normally, the Bengals would be playing for pride and for next season. The players that are under contract would be trying to protect their jobs and the would-be free agents would be auditioning for the next team. Everyone would be trying to impress whoever their coach would be next year -- either the new guy after Marvin Lewis gets fired or the coach of their new team.

I don't think there's going to be a 2011 season and I think the players might realize that, too. If they don't have anything to play for this season, then they don't have anything to play for at all in this game, since there won't be a next season next season. They basically just have their pride. When it's right around freezing outside, possibly snowing, and James Farrior is trying to make orphans of your children, pride tends to take a back seat to sitting on a heated bench in a parka and talking with your team mates about your golf game.

They still hate the Steelers, they still have their pride, but I'm thinking they won't have as much fight in them in the second half. If the first half of Sunday's game turns out like the first half of the first game, then the Steelers should be able to put the Bengals away in the second half. I think that they have sufficient motivation, pride, and talent to do that.

Prediction:
Steelers 28, Bengals 7

Steelers-Patriots Preview

I'm not sure what to make of this game.

On the one hand, the Patriots aren't the same offense since they traded Randy Moss. They're more of a short passing team that doesn't have a deep threat, so the defense isn't afraid to crowd the line of scrimmage. The Steelers have gotten considerably better at crowding the line -- Ike Taylor and Bryant McFadden are more comfortable playing tighter on the receiver than they are giving up a cushion and they're more effective that way -- and they haven't had given up tons of yards underneath over the past three seasons. Tom Brady used to shred the Steelers by dinking and dunking his was down the field, but I don't think he can do that Sunday night.

On the other hand, the NFL has been big on fining James Harrison and he's really the enforcer underneath. Receivers know that he will straight up murder them if they get near him. But, with all the fines he's had to pay, he's playing with less intensity. I think that Lawrence Timmons can still get the job of enforcer done, but Harrison's much better at it. In addition, Brady has used the short pass/smart decisions strategy to crush the Steelers defense again and again this season. Teams realize that they can't run against the Steelers, so they just throw it. Brady has no problems keeping at it until the defense flinches and his receivers start getting tons of yards after the catch.

On the one hand, the New England defense kinda sucks. They have smart, savvy players, but they used to have a bunch of smart, savvy players that were actually good. Right now? They're kinda just smart and savvy. So, they'll make a big play when they need to with the game on the line, but they won't be able to out-execute many people play-to-play.

On the other hand, that means that the Steelers actually need to execute, which has been an issue. If they can execute on offense, I think they'll be able to gain yards in chunks, which is how Bruce Arians likes it. But, Bill Belichick's strategy on defense is to take away an offense's two best weapons and make the other guys beat him. That means Mike Wallace and Rashard Mendenhall will be taken out of the game and Hines Ward, Heath Miller, and, Randle-El need to win this game. Can they do it? Sure, anything's possible through Jesus. But... likely? Not as much.

On the one hand, the Patriots got crushed by Cleveland last week. Crushed. By Cleveland. Now, the Browns are starting to look like a better team, but they're still the Browns. Good teams don't get smoked by Cleveland by 20 points.

On the other hand, it didn't work out so well for the Steelers the last time they played someone on a Sunday night that got smoked by Cleveland the previous week. If Bruce Arians and Dick LeBeau try what worked for the Browns last week, New England will have already adjusted and it won't work. The Patriots players are super angry about what happened in Week 9 and they've been working all week to fix it. New England is not the kind of team that loses in back to back weeks.

On the one hand, the Steelers have a pretty big special teams advantage, which is weird to say. Emmanuel Sanders is starting to look like a decent return guy, we have Vulva, and our coverage guys are significantly better than their counterparts on the Patriots.

On the other hand, Jeff Reed has been inconsistent to say the least. This is going to be a tight game and the Steelers are going to need to count on his right leg. Can they? I'm not sure.

On the one hand, the line opened at 5 and is now at 4.5, so not a lot of people are taking the Patriots. Seven of eight of the experts on ESPN.com picked the Steelers over the Pats.

On the other hand, when I was talking to Weidman and Topher about this last night at the bar, we had two predictions for the Steelers and one for the Patriots. With three homers in attendance, there should have been three for the Steelers, but by a low margin of victory. And... I should have been more confident in my pick. That's below, but here's one other thing to consider...

I think this is going to be a tight game, but I think the crowd is going to be the difference. At the Baltimore game, people were crazy ba-nuts insane and that was Week 4. After the Steelers had played three of their first four at home. Tomorrow night? You'll have 65,000 drunk yinzers -- myself and Weidman included -- that will have had all day to pre-game and haven't been able to see a Steelers home game in a month. In an entire month. Plus 65,000 drunk, crazy yinzers. Against the Patriots. Both teams are 6-2 and most Steeler fans hate the Patriots about as much as they hate the hated Ravens. They are going to be fired up. Fired up is probably not an apt description and falls way short, so they are going to be super duper crazy insane ba-nuts fired up on a stick. I think they carry the team to victory.

On the one hand, I'm going to the game and I'm 12-3 over my lifetime.

On the other hand, I'm 2-3 in my last five games, which is not exactly awesome.

On the one hand, I predicted the exact score of the Cleveland game.

On the other hand, my predictions have sucked hard this year. When I've predicted a win, the Steelers have lost. When I've predicted a loss, the Steelers have won.

So, even though I think the crowd will carry the Steelers to victory, I need to do my part.

Prediction:
Patriots 28, Steelers 24