Through the first two rounds I went 5-3 in the Wild Card games and 5-3 in the Divisional Round games, so at least I'm consistent.
I'm actually 7-1 ATS, I've just been horribly wrong (3-5 record) when betting against the Over/Under, which is why I've only won three parlays out of eight bets. This is on MyBookie not real, actual money. Gambling is illegal, dontcha know.
On to the picks. Home team in CAPS...
NEW ENGLAND (-7) over Hated Ravens:
When this line opened at 7.5, I was decided that I was going to take Baltimore and not look back. My thinking was that the Patriots weren't going to win this game by more than a touchdown. Then it dropped to 7. Now, if New England wins by a touchdown, it's a push. I'd rather take a loss than a push because I'm an idiot, so I'm now prepared to go big or go home.
I originally predicted that the hated Ravens were going to represent the AFC in Super Bowl XLVI, even going so far as to state that they could beat the Patriots in Foxborough. Time and sanity have made me reconsider that position.
Baltimore doesn't have the personnel to match up against Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, though I think their cornerbacks are physical enough to at least slow Wes Welker down. I don't think they can get consistent pressure on Tom Brady with just four guys -- they weren't able to against Houston and Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil weren't able to get to Brady in the Denver game -- which means he'll have enough time to scan the field and throw the ball to the tight end that's most open. New England has gotten better at protecting the football as the season has progressed and the hated Ravens will need to force at least three turnovers to win this game.
I am also taking the over. That's a pretty bold move, considering Baltimore has a great defense and the total points is 50. I think that the hated Ravens -- especially Ray Rice catching balls out of the backfield -- will be able to score points on this craptastic Patriots defense, but I don't think they'll be able to do enough.
This Baltimore team isn't built to win shoot-outs and I think that's what this game will turn into. New England is built to win shoot-outs and that's exactly what they want this game to turn into. They're at home, they're playing well, they're feeling confident, and they're just far enough removed from their last Super Bowl appearance (and disappointment) to be hungry to return.
On top of that, they've won nine straight and only fail to cover a total points of 50 in one of those games (34-3 win over Kansas City where they took their foot off the gas). They're also 6-1-2 against a seven point spread in their last nine.
SAN FRANCISCO (-2.5) over NY Giants:
This opened at 49ers by 2.5 with an O/U of 42 and it hasn't moved. I think it's just right. Either you believe the Niners will cover or the Giants will win. Either you think it's going to be a fairly high scoring game or you think it's going to be a snooze fest. I happen to think San Francisco wins by at least a field goal and I'm taking the Over.
I picked against New York twice already this postseason and I was wrong twice. The first time I overvalued the Falcons and the second time they were playing the freaking Packers. I'll admit that I'm not as sold on the Giants as the rest of the world. I'll admit that I'm probably too enamored with the 49ers. I know that New York is playing better football than they were in November (when they lost at San Francisco 27-20).
Here's the thing: The 49ers are also playing better football than they were in November. They've proved they can put up points. They've proved they can win shoot-outs in pressure situations (like they did against the Saints last week). Alex Smith has shown that he can carry this team -- for brief periods of time -- if need be. They also force a lot of turnovers, run the ball well, and stop the run on defense. They can get to the quarterback and they can play man or zone. This is a very versatile team and I think they're good enough to beat the streaking Giants.
Also, I watched that game in November. The final score is misleading. San Francisco controlled the game on both sides of the ball, but entered the fourth quarter trailing 13-12. If they dominate the Giants like they did in the regular season, then they'll be the ones in the lead heading into the final quarter.
Even if the defense unravels like they did against the Saints, the offense has shown that it can keep up and score points late in games. As much as I'd love to see another Giants-Patriots Super Bowl (with Eli Manning again shattering Tom Brady's dreams), I don't see it happening.
Showing posts with label patriots. Show all posts
Showing posts with label patriots. Show all posts
Thursday, January 19, 2012
Monday, November 22, 2010
Steelers-Raiders Review
Well, I was towards the end of a post about this game and it all got deleted somehow. I think I selected all text, then somehow hit delete, then it auto-saved before I could hit Undo. I really don't know what happened.
Cliff notes from that post:
Cliff notes from that post:
- It felt good to get a blow-out win after getting blown out against New England.
- It felt good to blow out the Raiders, even though it's not much of a rivalry at this point.
- The Steelers should keep throwing and keep blitzing, because that's what seems to work for them. They didn't blitz Tom Brady because the first thing they teach you at defensive coordinator school is that Tom Brady will destroy your life essence and steal the souls of your children if you blitz him. Not blitzing him did not work, so maybe they should blitz him a lot if they meet in the playoffs. When the defense has performed well, gotten sacks, and forced turnovers, they've been blitzing. So... keep up with that.
- They can't withstand any more injuries to the offensive and defensive lines. Injuries in those areas will catch up with them and be their undoing when they play better teams.
- While I don't think that the Steelers are being targeted by the officials, I think that the officials are definitely calling tighter games on James Harrison. That could kill the team once they play better teams and once the games get closer (i.e. in the post season).
- I will not complain about the officiating and blame the officials if that happens, because I live in Pittsburgh and root for the Steelers, not in Seattle and root for the Seahawks. (They're still bitter so I can still be bitter about them being bitter.)
- Next week is not a trap game. The Bills are squirrely and the Steelers know they have to win all the games on their schedule to keep up with the hated Ravens. If Buffalo wins next week, it's not because the Steelers got caught in a trap. It is because the Bills are sneaky and possibly a decent team.
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
Steelers-Patriots Review
There are two silver linings, as I see it. The first is that, under NFL guidelines, the Steelers will only be charged with one loss for Sunday night's game. Even though they performed worse than bad, they can still only get one loss from that game. They can't get like a loss and a tie or a credit for another loss that strikes a future win off the books or anything. Just one loss, so that's good. They deserve two or three for that performance, but they are only on the books for one.
The other good news is that everyone else in the division lost, so it's not like the Steelers lost any ground in the division. They may have had their confidence shattered and many fans may still be shell-shocked -- I know I was still pretty angry about the game as of last night, but I'm feeling less angry today -- but, as far as the division standings are concerned, basically nothing happened last week.
Other thoughts are not quite so optimistic. The Steelers just played very, very poorly on Sunday night. There weren't serious problems with their scheme, the Patriots did not provide the rest of the league with a "blueprint" to beat the Steelers, it was just a horrid performance on all fronts. The good news there is that, hopefully, the Steelers can just put the game behind them and focus on this week. There aren't wholesale changes that need to be made to the systems on offense and defense. The bad news there is that the, "Hey, guys, do you think you could just play better? Like, a lot better?" strategy doesn't usually work. Either the players play well or they don't. Just saying, "Play better," a lot doesn't make them better. If that worked, then there would be no bad teams in the league.
The Steelers aren't a bad team by any stretch. They're just not executing well of late on offense and defense. They've had a bunch of injuries and the offensive line may not be able to recover. The defensive line misses Aaron Smith and Brett Kiesel in a big way. The offense, in general, is pretty broken and maybe thinking that throwing Ben Roethlisberger back in there would fix everything was like having a child to try to save a bad marriage. Losing Max Starks hurts the team, but at least they're getting healthier at all positions.
The defense didn't fall apart or start sucking overnight, they just didn't play well on Sunday. The idea that the way to beat the Steelers is to abandon the running game and pick them apart in the passing game underneath is not a new idea. Various teams -- especially the Patriots -- have used this strategy very effectively since the turn of the century. Many of the guys the Steelers have on defense have been in the line-up since the turn of the century, so it's unrealistic to think that their odds of actually stopping that strategy would improve with age.
They did a great job of not getting beat deep and punishing receivers underneath in 2008. They did a decent job on that front for most of 2009. The first few games this year, they did an exceptional job. Now, either they're starting to show their age, the injuries are starting to catch up with them, or both.
They're an old team that doesn't have a lot of quality depth. We knew that coming in, but we didn't know if key injuries were going to strike key positions and when those injuries were going to hit. Well, we're only nine games in and there have already been a couple, with the most notable ones to Smith and Starks.
I'm not declaring that the season is over, but I do think that all us Steeler fans now need to adjust our expectations for the season. When they started out hot, the defense looked unstoppable, and we just needed to wait for Ben to come back to have a complete team, a home playoff game and a first round bye looked realistic. They're still well-positioned and they still have three division games left on the schedule to create some separation, but Sunday night really hurt their chances. They also need to recover from the injuries they've suffered thus far and the reserves need to step up now that they're starters. They need to avoid more key injuries, which is pretty much impossible.
All of these things could conceivably happen. This team could have learned a thing or two from their collapse last season. But, they could be waiting for the other shoe to drop. They could have psyched themselves out so bad trying to avoid a collapse that a collapse is now unavoidable.
November is when you either start to pull away and establish yourself or when you collapse. In 2008, the Steelers pulled away and established. In 2009, they collapsed. I'm not sure what 2010 holds in store for the team, but I would put better odds on a collapse (with more injuries) than I would on a pull away/establish.
Regardless of whether or not they make the playoffs, this is not a complete team at this point. They are a damaged, splintered team and the AFC is too stacked on too many fronts for them to get very far in the playoffs, even if they were to make it. That could change if some pieces come together and reserves step up, but I doubt that it will happen. I'm obviously hoping that it will happen, but it's doubtful.
My father in-law thinks that they're done. He sees another late-season collapse and his official prediction is 9-7, with the Steelers missing the playoffs. Now that it's on the Internet, it's written in stone. I intend to hold him to that prediction, regardless of what happens.
I would say that 9-7 or 10-6 is a fair prediction at this point. But, I guess we'll see.
In other news, the Steelers cut Jeff Reed. I know he was having a bad season thus far, he was inconsistent at best, and he was 0 for 4 from 40-49 yards, which is a range where he's usually automatic. But... I keep thinking they cut him because of his mouth and his antics, not his foot. Sure, I guess there's a joke in there about him putting his foot in his mouth, but we're better than that.
I think it's a mistake for the balance of the season, but I also think that it's going to turn out to be a good move in the long term. Even though he was in a funk this year, he was still about as reliable as any other kicker in the league at Heinz Field, if not more accurate. The Steelers are going to be involved in more close games and they play four of their next seven at home (where they're surprisingly 2-2 and 4-1 on the road). They could've used Reed's accuracy and familiarity with Heinz Field for the rest of the year, then cut him loose at the end of the season.
Suisham -- I ended up Googling just his last name because I couldn't remember if his first name was Shawn, Shaun, or Todd -- isn't an improvement over Reed. He doesn't have a reputation as a clutch kicker and he doesn't have as much experience at Heinz Field. I mean, no one has as much experience at Heinz Field as Reed, but Suisham has played most of his career in the NFC, so he has less than a lot of guys that are out there.
He turns 29 in December, so maybe this is a decent long term move if he works out. I just don't think he's going to work out well enough for it to be worth it long term. So, in addtion to questions about the offensive line, whether or not Hines Ward will retire, whether or not half the defense will retire, and the whereabouts of Roethlisberger's penis, the 2011 offseason will involve the added question of who the Steelers will pick up to replace Reed.
I'm thinking it's a Vulva situation and they draft some dude in the fourth or fifth round. That's a good long term solution if that guy works out and it's a pretty crappy next few years -- Kris Brown, I'm looking at you -- if the guy doesn't.
I guess we will see.
The other good news is that everyone else in the division lost, so it's not like the Steelers lost any ground in the division. They may have had their confidence shattered and many fans may still be shell-shocked -- I know I was still pretty angry about the game as of last night, but I'm feeling less angry today -- but, as far as the division standings are concerned, basically nothing happened last week.
Other thoughts are not quite so optimistic. The Steelers just played very, very poorly on Sunday night. There weren't serious problems with their scheme, the Patriots did not provide the rest of the league with a "blueprint" to beat the Steelers, it was just a horrid performance on all fronts. The good news there is that, hopefully, the Steelers can just put the game behind them and focus on this week. There aren't wholesale changes that need to be made to the systems on offense and defense. The bad news there is that the, "Hey, guys, do you think you could just play better? Like, a lot better?" strategy doesn't usually work. Either the players play well or they don't. Just saying, "Play better," a lot doesn't make them better. If that worked, then there would be no bad teams in the league.
The Steelers aren't a bad team by any stretch. They're just not executing well of late on offense and defense. They've had a bunch of injuries and the offensive line may not be able to recover. The defensive line misses Aaron Smith and Brett Kiesel in a big way. The offense, in general, is pretty broken and maybe thinking that throwing Ben Roethlisberger back in there would fix everything was like having a child to try to save a bad marriage. Losing Max Starks hurts the team, but at least they're getting healthier at all positions.
The defense didn't fall apart or start sucking overnight, they just didn't play well on Sunday. The idea that the way to beat the Steelers is to abandon the running game and pick them apart in the passing game underneath is not a new idea. Various teams -- especially the Patriots -- have used this strategy very effectively since the turn of the century. Many of the guys the Steelers have on defense have been in the line-up since the turn of the century, so it's unrealistic to think that their odds of actually stopping that strategy would improve with age.
They did a great job of not getting beat deep and punishing receivers underneath in 2008. They did a decent job on that front for most of 2009. The first few games this year, they did an exceptional job. Now, either they're starting to show their age, the injuries are starting to catch up with them, or both.
They're an old team that doesn't have a lot of quality depth. We knew that coming in, but we didn't know if key injuries were going to strike key positions and when those injuries were going to hit. Well, we're only nine games in and there have already been a couple, with the most notable ones to Smith and Starks.
I'm not declaring that the season is over, but I do think that all us Steeler fans now need to adjust our expectations for the season. When they started out hot, the defense looked unstoppable, and we just needed to wait for Ben to come back to have a complete team, a home playoff game and a first round bye looked realistic. They're still well-positioned and they still have three division games left on the schedule to create some separation, but Sunday night really hurt their chances. They also need to recover from the injuries they've suffered thus far and the reserves need to step up now that they're starters. They need to avoid more key injuries, which is pretty much impossible.
All of these things could conceivably happen. This team could have learned a thing or two from their collapse last season. But, they could be waiting for the other shoe to drop. They could have psyched themselves out so bad trying to avoid a collapse that a collapse is now unavoidable.
November is when you either start to pull away and establish yourself or when you collapse. In 2008, the Steelers pulled away and established. In 2009, they collapsed. I'm not sure what 2010 holds in store for the team, but I would put better odds on a collapse (with more injuries) than I would on a pull away/establish.
Regardless of whether or not they make the playoffs, this is not a complete team at this point. They are a damaged, splintered team and the AFC is too stacked on too many fronts for them to get very far in the playoffs, even if they were to make it. That could change if some pieces come together and reserves step up, but I doubt that it will happen. I'm obviously hoping that it will happen, but it's doubtful.
My father in-law thinks that they're done. He sees another late-season collapse and his official prediction is 9-7, with the Steelers missing the playoffs. Now that it's on the Internet, it's written in stone. I intend to hold him to that prediction, regardless of what happens.
I would say that 9-7 or 10-6 is a fair prediction at this point. But, I guess we'll see.
In other news, the Steelers cut Jeff Reed. I know he was having a bad season thus far, he was inconsistent at best, and he was 0 for 4 from 40-49 yards, which is a range where he's usually automatic. But... I keep thinking they cut him because of his mouth and his antics, not his foot. Sure, I guess there's a joke in there about him putting his foot in his mouth, but we're better than that.
I think it's a mistake for the balance of the season, but I also think that it's going to turn out to be a good move in the long term. Even though he was in a funk this year, he was still about as reliable as any other kicker in the league at Heinz Field, if not more accurate. The Steelers are going to be involved in more close games and they play four of their next seven at home (where they're surprisingly 2-2 and 4-1 on the road). They could've used Reed's accuracy and familiarity with Heinz Field for the rest of the year, then cut him loose at the end of the season.
Suisham -- I ended up Googling just his last name because I couldn't remember if his first name was Shawn, Shaun, or Todd -- isn't an improvement over Reed. He doesn't have a reputation as a clutch kicker and he doesn't have as much experience at Heinz Field. I mean, no one has as much experience at Heinz Field as Reed, but Suisham has played most of his career in the NFC, so he has less than a lot of guys that are out there.
He turns 29 in December, so maybe this is a decent long term move if he works out. I just don't think he's going to work out well enough for it to be worth it long term. So, in addtion to questions about the offensive line, whether or not Hines Ward will retire, whether or not half the defense will retire, and the whereabouts of Roethlisberger's penis, the 2011 offseason will involve the added question of who the Steelers will pick up to replace Reed.
I'm thinking it's a Vulva situation and they draft some dude in the fourth or fifth round. That's a good long term solution if that guy works out and it's a pretty crappy next few years -- Kris Brown, I'm looking at you -- if the guy doesn't.
I guess we will see.
Saturday, November 13, 2010
Steelers-Patriots Preview
I'm not sure what to make of this game.
On the one hand, the Patriots aren't the same offense since they traded Randy Moss. They're more of a short passing team that doesn't have a deep threat, so the defense isn't afraid to crowd the line of scrimmage. The Steelers have gotten considerably better at crowding the line -- Ike Taylor and Bryant McFadden are more comfortable playing tighter on the receiver than they are giving up a cushion and they're more effective that way -- and they haven't had given up tons of yards underneath over the past three seasons. Tom Brady used to shred the Steelers by dinking and dunking his was down the field, but I don't think he can do that Sunday night.
On the other hand, the NFL has been big on fining James Harrison and he's really the enforcer underneath. Receivers know that he will straight up murder them if they get near him. But, with all the fines he's had to pay, he's playing with less intensity. I think that Lawrence Timmons can still get the job of enforcer done, but Harrison's much better at it. In addition, Brady has used the short pass/smart decisions strategy to crush the Steelers defense again and again this season. Teams realize that they can't run against the Steelers, so they just throw it. Brady has no problems keeping at it until the defense flinches and his receivers start getting tons of yards after the catch.
On the one hand, the New England defense kinda sucks. They have smart, savvy players, but they used to have a bunch of smart, savvy players that were actually good. Right now? They're kinda just smart and savvy. So, they'll make a big play when they need to with the game on the line, but they won't be able to out-execute many people play-to-play.
On the other hand, that means that the Steelers actually need to execute, which has been an issue. If they can execute on offense, I think they'll be able to gain yards in chunks, which is how Bruce Arians likes it. But, Bill Belichick's strategy on defense is to take away an offense's two best weapons and make the other guys beat him. That means Mike Wallace and Rashard Mendenhall will be taken out of the game and Hines Ward, Heath Miller, and, Randle-El need to win this game. Can they do it? Sure, anything's possible through Jesus. But... likely? Not as much.
On the one hand, the Patriots got crushed by Cleveland last week. Crushed. By Cleveland. Now, the Browns are starting to look like a better team, but they're still the Browns. Good teams don't get smoked by Cleveland by 20 points.
On the other hand, it didn't work out so well for the Steelers the last time they played someone on a Sunday night that got smoked by Cleveland the previous week. If Bruce Arians and Dick LeBeau try what worked for the Browns last week, New England will have already adjusted and it won't work. The Patriots players are super angry about what happened in Week 9 and they've been working all week to fix it. New England is not the kind of team that loses in back to back weeks.
On the one hand, the Steelers have a pretty big special teams advantage, which is weird to say. Emmanuel Sanders is starting to look like a decent return guy, we have Vulva, and our coverage guys are significantly better than their counterparts on the Patriots.
On the other hand, Jeff Reed has been inconsistent to say the least. This is going to be a tight game and the Steelers are going to need to count on his right leg. Can they? I'm not sure.
On the one hand, the line opened at 5 and is now at 4.5, so not a lot of people are taking the Patriots. Seven of eight of the experts on ESPN.com picked the Steelers over the Pats.
On the other hand, when I was talking to Weidman and Topher about this last night at the bar, we had two predictions for the Steelers and one for the Patriots. With three homers in attendance, there should have been three for the Steelers, but by a low margin of victory. And... I should have been more confident in my pick. That's below, but here's one other thing to consider...
I think this is going to be a tight game, but I think the crowd is going to be the difference. At the Baltimore game, people were crazy ba-nuts insane and that was Week 4. After the Steelers had played three of their first four at home. Tomorrow night? You'll have 65,000 drunk yinzers -- myself and Weidman included -- that will have had all day to pre-game and haven't been able to see a Steelers home game in a month. In an entire month. Plus 65,000 drunk, crazy yinzers. Against the Patriots. Both teams are 6-2 and most Steeler fans hate the Patriots about as much as they hate the hated Ravens. They are going to be fired up. Fired up is probably not an apt description and falls way short, so they are going to be super duper crazy insane ba-nuts fired up on a stick. I think they carry the team to victory.
On the one hand, I'm going to the game and I'm 12-3 over my lifetime.
On the other hand, I'm 2-3 in my last five games, which is not exactly awesome.
On the one hand, I predicted the exact score of the Cleveland game.
On the other hand, my predictions have sucked hard this year. When I've predicted a win, the Steelers have lost. When I've predicted a loss, the Steelers have won.
So, even though I think the crowd will carry the Steelers to victory, I need to do my part.
Prediction:
Patriots 28, Steelers 24
On the one hand, the Patriots aren't the same offense since they traded Randy Moss. They're more of a short passing team that doesn't have a deep threat, so the defense isn't afraid to crowd the line of scrimmage. The Steelers have gotten considerably better at crowding the line -- Ike Taylor and Bryant McFadden are more comfortable playing tighter on the receiver than they are giving up a cushion and they're more effective that way -- and they haven't had given up tons of yards underneath over the past three seasons. Tom Brady used to shred the Steelers by dinking and dunking his was down the field, but I don't think he can do that Sunday night.
On the other hand, the NFL has been big on fining James Harrison and he's really the enforcer underneath. Receivers know that he will straight up murder them if they get near him. But, with all the fines he's had to pay, he's playing with less intensity. I think that Lawrence Timmons can still get the job of enforcer done, but Harrison's much better at it. In addition, Brady has used the short pass/smart decisions strategy to crush the Steelers defense again and again this season. Teams realize that they can't run against the Steelers, so they just throw it. Brady has no problems keeping at it until the defense flinches and his receivers start getting tons of yards after the catch.
On the one hand, the New England defense kinda sucks. They have smart, savvy players, but they used to have a bunch of smart, savvy players that were actually good. Right now? They're kinda just smart and savvy. So, they'll make a big play when they need to with the game on the line, but they won't be able to out-execute many people play-to-play.
On the other hand, that means that the Steelers actually need to execute, which has been an issue. If they can execute on offense, I think they'll be able to gain yards in chunks, which is how Bruce Arians likes it. But, Bill Belichick's strategy on defense is to take away an offense's two best weapons and make the other guys beat him. That means Mike Wallace and Rashard Mendenhall will be taken out of the game and Hines Ward, Heath Miller, and, Randle-El need to win this game. Can they do it? Sure, anything's possible through Jesus. But... likely? Not as much.
On the one hand, the Patriots got crushed by Cleveland last week. Crushed. By Cleveland. Now, the Browns are starting to look like a better team, but they're still the Browns. Good teams don't get smoked by Cleveland by 20 points.
On the other hand, it didn't work out so well for the Steelers the last time they played someone on a Sunday night that got smoked by Cleveland the previous week. If Bruce Arians and Dick LeBeau try what worked for the Browns last week, New England will have already adjusted and it won't work. The Patriots players are super angry about what happened in Week 9 and they've been working all week to fix it. New England is not the kind of team that loses in back to back weeks.
On the one hand, the Steelers have a pretty big special teams advantage, which is weird to say. Emmanuel Sanders is starting to look like a decent return guy, we have Vulva, and our coverage guys are significantly better than their counterparts on the Patriots.
On the other hand, Jeff Reed has been inconsistent to say the least. This is going to be a tight game and the Steelers are going to need to count on his right leg. Can they? I'm not sure.
On the one hand, the line opened at 5 and is now at 4.5, so not a lot of people are taking the Patriots. Seven of eight of the experts on ESPN.com picked the Steelers over the Pats.
On the other hand, when I was talking to Weidman and Topher about this last night at the bar, we had two predictions for the Steelers and one for the Patriots. With three homers in attendance, there should have been three for the Steelers, but by a low margin of victory. And... I should have been more confident in my pick. That's below, but here's one other thing to consider...
I think this is going to be a tight game, but I think the crowd is going to be the difference. At the Baltimore game, people were crazy ba-nuts insane and that was Week 4. After the Steelers had played three of their first four at home. Tomorrow night? You'll have 65,000 drunk yinzers -- myself and Weidman included -- that will have had all day to pre-game and haven't been able to see a Steelers home game in a month. In an entire month. Plus 65,000 drunk, crazy yinzers. Against the Patriots. Both teams are 6-2 and most Steeler fans hate the Patriots about as much as they hate the hated Ravens. They are going to be fired up. Fired up is probably not an apt description and falls way short, so they are going to be super duper crazy insane ba-nuts fired up on a stick. I think they carry the team to victory.
On the one hand, I'm going to the game and I'm 12-3 over my lifetime.
On the other hand, I'm 2-3 in my last five games, which is not exactly awesome.
On the one hand, I predicted the exact score of the Cleveland game.
On the other hand, my predictions have sucked hard this year. When I've predicted a win, the Steelers have lost. When I've predicted a loss, the Steelers have won.
So, even though I think the crowd will carry the Steelers to victory, I need to do my part.
Prediction:
Patriots 28, Steelers 24
Tuesday, August 22, 2006
AFC East Predicitions
Here's how it looks to me, last to first:
New York Jets:
Okay. This was kinda a toss-up. The Bills and the Jets are both screwed. Buffalo at least has a defense. So they're picked to finish third.
A 35 year-old coach. A QB with a bum shoulder. A running back with two bum knees. And an organization that was so desperate they traded for Kevan Barlow. Here's a winner. They might actually be worse than they were last year. But, I do actually believe that Eric Mangini will be good. Eventually.
Their defense is old, their offensive line has two rookie starters and they TRADED FOR KEVAN BARLOW. I bet Jonathan Vilma can't wait to void his contract fast enough. Did I mention that Dwayne Robertson has underachieved? That they traded Jonathan Abraham, their best defensive player? That they let Ty Law and his 10 interceptions walk? That Curtis Martin's knees have finally failed? That they play in a division with the Patriots and the improved Dolphins? That the Bills actually have a defense? Okay, I mentioned that already. Let's move on.
Buffalo Bills:
They actually have a defense. That's the good news. The bad news is that Dick Jauron and Marv Levy have no idea what they're doing, Lee Evans is all alone, it will take 2 games for Willis McGahee to shut down and call his agent, demanding a trade, and that they have three different guys vying for the starting QB spot. As my friend Corey says, "When you have three guys fighting for one job, you really don't have anyone." And this is at the game's most important position.
Do us all a favor. Start Losman. There's nothing more humiliating than failing to admit you don't have a chance. It's pathetic. Let the boy learn. If he's not the answer, Brady Quinn might be available to you.
Miami Dolphins:
I've heard all the hype. I've heard about Daunte Culpepper and his miraculous recovery from knee surgery. I know Nick Saban is the Second Coming (of Bellichick, not Jesus). I'm just not sold on it.
They have two former head coaches now serving as coordinators/assistant head coaches. Think there's not going to be an issue on 3rd and 1? In either direction? You might as well hire two fomer CEOs to run your shipping department. Sure they're smart, capable guys, but they remember what it's like to sit in your chair. Give the press conferences. Have sex with you wife. I've said too much.
Their receivers don't mesh. Neither do their coordinators. Assistant head coaches. Whatever. Their line is still suspect. Their quarterback looked like the gigantic, black version of the guy from "Operation" 10 months ago. Their defense is old. And slowing. And small.
Think I haven't planned out the Preview for game 1 of the regular season when my beloved Steelers face off against this dysfunctional band of recovering has-beens? Think again. I see their holes. And so do the Patriots.
New England Patriots:
They still have Brady. And Bellichick. Until either (or, preferably both) of those guys is dead, I'm not betting against them. They might take it as a sign of disrespect.
Want a better explanation? Here goes:
New York Jets:
Okay. This was kinda a toss-up. The Bills and the Jets are both screwed. Buffalo at least has a defense. So they're picked to finish third.
A 35 year-old coach. A QB with a bum shoulder. A running back with two bum knees. And an organization that was so desperate they traded for Kevan Barlow. Here's a winner. They might actually be worse than they were last year. But, I do actually believe that Eric Mangini will be good. Eventually.
Their defense is old, their offensive line has two rookie starters and they TRADED FOR KEVAN BARLOW. I bet Jonathan Vilma can't wait to void his contract fast enough. Did I mention that Dwayne Robertson has underachieved? That they traded Jonathan Abraham, their best defensive player? That they let Ty Law and his 10 interceptions walk? That Curtis Martin's knees have finally failed? That they play in a division with the Patriots and the improved Dolphins? That the Bills actually have a defense? Okay, I mentioned that already. Let's move on.
Buffalo Bills:
They actually have a defense. That's the good news. The bad news is that Dick Jauron and Marv Levy have no idea what they're doing, Lee Evans is all alone, it will take 2 games for Willis McGahee to shut down and call his agent, demanding a trade, and that they have three different guys vying for the starting QB spot. As my friend Corey says, "When you have three guys fighting for one job, you really don't have anyone." And this is at the game's most important position.
Do us all a favor. Start Losman. There's nothing more humiliating than failing to admit you don't have a chance. It's pathetic. Let the boy learn. If he's not the answer, Brady Quinn might be available to you.
Miami Dolphins:
I've heard all the hype. I've heard about Daunte Culpepper and his miraculous recovery from knee surgery. I know Nick Saban is the Second Coming (of Bellichick, not Jesus). I'm just not sold on it.
They have two former head coaches now serving as coordinators/assistant head coaches. Think there's not going to be an issue on 3rd and 1? In either direction? You might as well hire two fomer CEOs to run your shipping department. Sure they're smart, capable guys, but they remember what it's like to sit in your chair. Give the press conferences. Have sex with you wife. I've said too much.
Their receivers don't mesh. Neither do their coordinators. Assistant head coaches. Whatever. Their line is still suspect. Their quarterback looked like the gigantic, black version of the guy from "Operation" 10 months ago. Their defense is old. And slowing. And small.
Think I haven't planned out the Preview for game 1 of the regular season when my beloved Steelers face off against this dysfunctional band of recovering has-beens? Think again. I see their holes. And so do the Patriots.
New England Patriots:
They still have Brady. And Bellichick. Until either (or, preferably both) of those guys is dead, I'm not betting against them. They might take it as a sign of disrespect.
Want a better explanation? Here goes:
- They match up well against the "elite" teams in the conference, except the Broncos.
- Absurd depth on the defensive and offensive lines.
- Corey Dillon. Not good enough? Lawrence Maroney.
- Every linebacker on their roster (roughly 30 at this point) is good enough to start. And versatile. And smart.
- Bellichick and Brady.
- They get to play 6 games this season against teams that suck more than they do that just happen to be in the same division.
- Bellichick and Brady.
I rest my case. Suck it.
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