I've been pretty bad at these the last few years, but dammit, that doesn't mean that I'll stop trying. A broken clock is right twice a day, but a broken clock with a seconds hand is right four times a day, so I just need to keep trying.
Here we go, in chronological order, home team in CAPS.
Bengals over TEXANS
Bill Barnwell is smarter than me and he wrote this article for Grantland, basically taking 2,500 words to say this: Since a 16 game season isn't enough of a sample size to get a sense for whether or not a team is good or bad, then you also can't pick up any useful information from the last eight games, because that tells you even less. Then something, something, the Texans are better all around, Andy Dalton is average, JJ Watt is awesome, and the game is in Houston.
Here's what I think: If 16 games aren't enough, then shouldn't you just go with the team that's playing the best in the recent past, since the game is being played tomorrow? The Texans have not played well in the recent past and Cincinnati has. The Bengals turned around their run defense, their front seven is solid, and, looking at their roster, they have one of the deepest secondaries in the NFL (Barnwell mentions this somewhere in the 8th paragraph or his 6th footnote, not sure which).
If they can contain Arian Foster -- and I think they can -- Houston doesn't have enough weapons in the passing game to score against this secondary. The Texans have a tough defense, but the wheels have started to come off a bit in the second half of the season. If they can't force turnovers and Watt and company can't pressure Dalton, they don't have the cover guys on the back end to stay with AJ Green, even if they put two guys on him.
Ultimately I think it's a close, low scoring game (take the under at 43 points) and the Bengals slog their way to victory. At +283, the money line is damned attractive. I'd take that, since I think Cincy wins outright, but I'd still take the Bengals to cover with the Texans favored by 4.5.
PACKERS over Vikings
Adrian Peterson is the best player in both brackets, but the Vikings don't have much else. I think Christian Ponder is solidly OK and doesn't deserve all the heat that he's taken, but there's something to be said for the fact that Percy Harvin still leads this team in receptions and he hasn't played since Week 9.
Green Bay is a talented, focused, deep team that played its best football in November and December. I think they're going to make a deep run. If their defenders think to themselves, "We need to do everything possible and impossible to keep 28 from murdering us," they'll be able to contain him and Minnesota won't be able to keep pace.
These teams combined for 71 points in Week 17, so take the over (46) and I'm gonna say take the Packers to cover, even though 8 points is a hell of a big spread for division opponents. If we were still doing NFL Pick Em, this would be my Lock of the Week.
HATED RAVENS over Colts
It's the Mayflower Bowl, new Colts vs. old Colts, new Colts vs. old Browns, Ray Lewis' Retirement vs. Chuck Pagano's Leukemia. There are a lot of storylines for what I think is going to be a pretty disappointing game for Indy fans.
I don't trust rookie quarterbacks in the playoffs, but I especially don't trust them in the playoffs on the road. Luck's been riding his "suck for three quarters, then turn it on in the fourth" for a while now and, ultimately, I think... are you ready for this... his luck is going to run out on Saturday.
The Colts are a flawed team that took advantage of an easy schedule and made the playoffs. Unlike the 2012 Steelers, they beat the teams they needed to beat and pulled off a couple shockers (like at home against Green Bay), and they finished 11-5. Like the 2011 Steelers, they're not as good as their record and were able to skate by by beating some really crappy teams. Like the 2011 Steelers, they're going to be one and done.
I think Luck has a bright future, but it doesn't begin on Sunday. I don't think Baltimore is a dominant team, but I think that they have more than enough to beat Indy and a rookie quarterback that doesn't play particularly well on the road in the first place.
I'm thinking the Old Guard teaches the Young Upstarts a much-needed lesson in this one and it's all over but the crying by half time. This game has the biggest point total of the weekend (take the Under at 47), but I think the hated Ravens also cover the seven point spread. Something like 27-3 or 27-10 sounds about right to me.
REDSKINS over Seahawks
Remember that thing I said about not liking rookie quarterbacks in road playoff games? Well, that, for starters.
Then there's the fact that the Redskins are home dogs, which is something that no team takes well. Then there's the fact that Washington hasn't hosted a playoff game since 1999 and their fans are bound to be pretty fired up.
As magical as Russell Wilson has been this season, he's up against too many intangibles in this game, not the least of which is the equally magical RGIII.
Seattle also sucks on the road in general, but particularly this season.
The best way for the Seahawks to win this game will be to do what they do -- play tough defense, establish the run early to set up the passing game, and beat on the opponent until there's nothing left. Trouble is, I don't think they'll be able to do the first part, since their run defense is suspect. The second part will be difficult because the Redskins have a surprisingly stout run defense. But, if Seattle can accomplish the first two objectives, the third one will be relatively easy. They grind Washington down like the Steelers did in Week 8.
I just don't see that happening. I think the Redskins will come out firing on offense and defense. I think they'll be able to mask the weaknesses in their secondary because Seattle rolls Wilson out a lot and the Washington defense will only need to cover half the field.
The Seahawks aren't built to overcome a big deficit and I think that's exactly where the Redskins will put them early in the game. Both teams will jockey and fight for position from there, but the crowd and the pressure on Wilson will be too much for him to overcome and Washington will win a squeaker.
A money line of +230 is pretty sweet and I usually like to take home underdogs. If you think Seattle is going to win, I'd still stay the hell away from a 3 point spread. If they win, I don't think they win by more than a field goal. Regardless, I'd take the Under (46) and run. No matter who wins, I think this ends up being a low scoring game.
Showing posts with label NFL playoffs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL playoffs. Show all posts
Friday, January 04, 2013
Thursday, January 19, 2012
Handicapping the Championship Games
Through the first two rounds I went 5-3 in the Wild Card games and 5-3 in the Divisional Round games, so at least I'm consistent.
I'm actually 7-1 ATS, I've just been horribly wrong (3-5 record) when betting against the Over/Under, which is why I've only won three parlays out of eight bets. This is on MyBookie not real, actual money. Gambling is illegal, dontcha know.
On to the picks. Home team in CAPS...
NEW ENGLAND (-7) over Hated Ravens:
When this line opened at 7.5, I was decided that I was going to take Baltimore and not look back. My thinking was that the Patriots weren't going to win this game by more than a touchdown. Then it dropped to 7. Now, if New England wins by a touchdown, it's a push. I'd rather take a loss than a push because I'm an idiot, so I'm now prepared to go big or go home.
I originally predicted that the hated Ravens were going to represent the AFC in Super Bowl XLVI, even going so far as to state that they could beat the Patriots in Foxborough. Time and sanity have made me reconsider that position.
Baltimore doesn't have the personnel to match up against Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, though I think their cornerbacks are physical enough to at least slow Wes Welker down. I don't think they can get consistent pressure on Tom Brady with just four guys -- they weren't able to against Houston and Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil weren't able to get to Brady in the Denver game -- which means he'll have enough time to scan the field and throw the ball to the tight end that's most open. New England has gotten better at protecting the football as the season has progressed and the hated Ravens will need to force at least three turnovers to win this game.
I am also taking the over. That's a pretty bold move, considering Baltimore has a great defense and the total points is 50. I think that the hated Ravens -- especially Ray Rice catching balls out of the backfield -- will be able to score points on this craptastic Patriots defense, but I don't think they'll be able to do enough.
This Baltimore team isn't built to win shoot-outs and I think that's what this game will turn into. New England is built to win shoot-outs and that's exactly what they want this game to turn into. They're at home, they're playing well, they're feeling confident, and they're just far enough removed from their last Super Bowl appearance (and disappointment) to be hungry to return.
On top of that, they've won nine straight and only fail to cover a total points of 50 in one of those games (34-3 win over Kansas City where they took their foot off the gas). They're also 6-1-2 against a seven point spread in their last nine.
SAN FRANCISCO (-2.5) over NY Giants:
This opened at 49ers by 2.5 with an O/U of 42 and it hasn't moved. I think it's just right. Either you believe the Niners will cover or the Giants will win. Either you think it's going to be a fairly high scoring game or you think it's going to be a snooze fest. I happen to think San Francisco wins by at least a field goal and I'm taking the Over.
I picked against New York twice already this postseason and I was wrong twice. The first time I overvalued the Falcons and the second time they were playing the freaking Packers. I'll admit that I'm not as sold on the Giants as the rest of the world. I'll admit that I'm probably too enamored with the 49ers. I know that New York is playing better football than they were in November (when they lost at San Francisco 27-20).
Here's the thing: The 49ers are also playing better football than they were in November. They've proved they can put up points. They've proved they can win shoot-outs in pressure situations (like they did against the Saints last week). Alex Smith has shown that he can carry this team -- for brief periods of time -- if need be. They also force a lot of turnovers, run the ball well, and stop the run on defense. They can get to the quarterback and they can play man or zone. This is a very versatile team and I think they're good enough to beat the streaking Giants.
Also, I watched that game in November. The final score is misleading. San Francisco controlled the game on both sides of the ball, but entered the fourth quarter trailing 13-12. If they dominate the Giants like they did in the regular season, then they'll be the ones in the lead heading into the final quarter.
Even if the defense unravels like they did against the Saints, the offense has shown that it can keep up and score points late in games. As much as I'd love to see another Giants-Patriots Super Bowl (with Eli Manning again shattering Tom Brady's dreams), I don't see it happening.
I'm actually 7-1 ATS, I've just been horribly wrong (3-5 record) when betting against the Over/Under, which is why I've only won three parlays out of eight bets. This is on MyBookie not real, actual money. Gambling is illegal, dontcha know.
On to the picks. Home team in CAPS...
NEW ENGLAND (-7) over Hated Ravens:
When this line opened at 7.5, I was decided that I was going to take Baltimore and not look back. My thinking was that the Patriots weren't going to win this game by more than a touchdown. Then it dropped to 7. Now, if New England wins by a touchdown, it's a push. I'd rather take a loss than a push because I'm an idiot, so I'm now prepared to go big or go home.
I originally predicted that the hated Ravens were going to represent the AFC in Super Bowl XLVI, even going so far as to state that they could beat the Patriots in Foxborough. Time and sanity have made me reconsider that position.
Baltimore doesn't have the personnel to match up against Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, though I think their cornerbacks are physical enough to at least slow Wes Welker down. I don't think they can get consistent pressure on Tom Brady with just four guys -- they weren't able to against Houston and Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil weren't able to get to Brady in the Denver game -- which means he'll have enough time to scan the field and throw the ball to the tight end that's most open. New England has gotten better at protecting the football as the season has progressed and the hated Ravens will need to force at least three turnovers to win this game.
I am also taking the over. That's a pretty bold move, considering Baltimore has a great defense and the total points is 50. I think that the hated Ravens -- especially Ray Rice catching balls out of the backfield -- will be able to score points on this craptastic Patriots defense, but I don't think they'll be able to do enough.
This Baltimore team isn't built to win shoot-outs and I think that's what this game will turn into. New England is built to win shoot-outs and that's exactly what they want this game to turn into. They're at home, they're playing well, they're feeling confident, and they're just far enough removed from their last Super Bowl appearance (and disappointment) to be hungry to return.
On top of that, they've won nine straight and only fail to cover a total points of 50 in one of those games (34-3 win over Kansas City where they took their foot off the gas). They're also 6-1-2 against a seven point spread in their last nine.
SAN FRANCISCO (-2.5) over NY Giants:
This opened at 49ers by 2.5 with an O/U of 42 and it hasn't moved. I think it's just right. Either you believe the Niners will cover or the Giants will win. Either you think it's going to be a fairly high scoring game or you think it's going to be a snooze fest. I happen to think San Francisco wins by at least a field goal and I'm taking the Over.
I picked against New York twice already this postseason and I was wrong twice. The first time I overvalued the Falcons and the second time they were playing the freaking Packers. I'll admit that I'm not as sold on the Giants as the rest of the world. I'll admit that I'm probably too enamored with the 49ers. I know that New York is playing better football than they were in November (when they lost at San Francisco 27-20).
Here's the thing: The 49ers are also playing better football than they were in November. They've proved they can put up points. They've proved they can win shoot-outs in pressure situations (like they did against the Saints last week). Alex Smith has shown that he can carry this team -- for brief periods of time -- if need be. They also force a lot of turnovers, run the ball well, and stop the run on defense. They can get to the quarterback and they can play man or zone. This is a very versatile team and I think they're good enough to beat the streaking Giants.
Also, I watched that game in November. The final score is misleading. San Francisco controlled the game on both sides of the ball, but entered the fourth quarter trailing 13-12. If they dominate the Giants like they did in the regular season, then they'll be the ones in the lead heading into the final quarter.
Even if the defense unravels like they did against the Saints, the offense has shown that it can keep up and score points late in games. As much as I'd love to see another Giants-Patriots Super Bowl (with Eli Manning again shattering Tom Brady's dreams), I don't see it happening.
Friday, January 13, 2012
Handicapping the Divisional Round
I started out Wild Card weekend with a bang, going 4-0 ATS and O/U. Then I came back to Earth, but that was more the fault of those stupid, stupid New York Giants and their stupid, stupid victory than a case of me getting Tebowed. I finished 5-3, which puts me well on my way towards winning the AFC West securing a home playoff game.
On to the picks. Home team in CAPS...
SAN FRANCISCO (+3.5) over NOLA:
I think the 49ers will win this game outright (with a moneyline of +173, no less), but that last half point is really enticing. If the 49ers lose, I think they only lose by a field goal. Take the Under, because the O/U for this game is pretty ridiculous at 47. It's gone down at least a point since it opened, which means that lots of people have been taking the Under, so Vegas is trying to find a number that will convince people to bet the Over. I remain unconvinced. The total needs to drop to 43 for me to take the Over.
This goes beyond the fact that I don't trust the Saints offense outdoors. I also don't trust them on the road, where they went 5-3. San Francisco went 7-1 at home. In their three losses, they lost by 3, 2, and 10 points. They don't get blown out. They don't give up a lot of points. They play close, low scoring games. They played in only three games this season where they would've topped the Over for this game. One of those games was their 48-3 ba-thwumping of Tampa, one of them was a 33-17 victory over the Seahawks where they scored two touchdowns on special teams, the last was the season finale against the Rams, when they had already clinched a bye and let up on defense after taking a 34-14 lead.
The 49ers have the pass rushing talent up front to pressure Brees with four guys and the talent in the back seven to hang with the Saints receivers. Their run defense was ranked #1 in the league, allowing an average of only 77.3 yards per game and only two rushing touchdowns all season (both of which came in the meaningless season finale).
They're better than people think, they play well enough on defense to contain the potent New Orleans offense, and the Saints lose just enough off their fastball on the road and outdoors that the 49ers win a tight, low scoring game.
NEW ENGLAND (-13.5) over Denver:
Yes, I know. I'm totally going to get Tebowed on this one.
These two teams met in Week 15 and the Patriots won 41-23. That game was in Denver. Total points in that game (64) were well above the O/U for this game (50). New England would also have covered this spread.
Denver's a hot team and I'm not trying to undermine what they did to the Steelers (a game which, by the way, would also have covered the Over at 52 points). They're also a streaky team. When they're feeling confident, they're pretty much unstoppable. When they're feeling down, they only manage a field goal at home against the Chiefs. They have every reason to feel confident right now, but I think they've gone past confident and have crossed over into territory that is much, much more dangerous.
Let me explain.
The week before the Wild Card round, I followed the Broncos on Twitter because I wanted to catch news that I might not get somewhere else. I forgot to unfollow them after the loss. On Tuesday, they posted a bunch of quotes from interviews with players. The quotes were regarding that Week 15 loss to the Patriots. When I read the quotes, I hadn't looked up the score, I just knew New England won. From the quotes -- things like, "we just needed to make a couple more plays" and "we missed a couple of opportunities" -- I assumed that they lost by a field goal or a touchdown. The quotes I read weren't even close to being indicative of an 18 point home loss. They've gone past confident and they're in a much, much more dangerous place. They're delusional. Since they were able to play their game their way against the NFL's best defense at home last week, the assumption is that they'll put everything together again and play their game their way on the road next week. The Steelers have the #1 defense, the Patriots have the #31 defense. Easy peasy, lemon squeezy.
The problem is that Bill Belichick has made a career out of making sure that teams don't get to play their game their way. This game is in Foxborough. The Patriots tend to start games out fast. If they jump out to a 14-0 lead at home against this Broncos team, it's going to be a shock to the system, like a six year old watching Belichick curb stomp the Easter Bunny.
I think the Patriots jump out to a big early lead, the Broncos re-group at halftime, and they come out fighting in the second half. I don't think they'll get anywhere close to coming back, but they've got way too much potential on offense to not score a bunch of points against a crappy New England defense. I think Champ Bailey can handle Wes Welker, but Heath Miller gouged the Broncos pretty bad last week. Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are way better receivers and are way more involved in the Patriots offense than Miller is for the Steelers.
Denver allowed 23 points to a banged up Steelers offense that had half a quarterback and three backup offensive linemen. If Isaac Redman can rush for 7.1 yards per carry and 121 total yards behind that offensive line, then some combination of BenJarvis Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead, and Stevan Ridley will be able to do just as good behind a very capable, very healthy Patriots offensive line.
Houston (+9) over BALTIMORE:
I think that the hated Ravens will win this game, but I don't think they'll cover. The Texans showed last week that they're a good team and they deserve to be here. Most of the guys on that team had never played in a playoff game before. They all realized how great it was to win in the postseason and they're bound and determined not to found out how bad it sucks to lose.
If Houston can't run the ball, they're dead meat. Their offensive line knows this. In order to run the ball successfully, you need to win at the point of attack. Winning at the point of attack is equal parts talent, scheme, and determination. The hated Ravens have a stout front seven and defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano has brought back the swagger and intimidation factor to this unit. Houston has one of the best lines in the league and their offensive line coach has brought his charges up from the dredges to the elite the last six seasons. Scheme and talent is a wash. Determination is the X factor.
Houston's offensive line knows that the season is riding on them. Baltimore's front seven knows that, if they're able to stop the run, they can tee off on TJ Yates and win this game easily. I'd say the Texans offensive line has more motivation and they'll be more determined.
If Houston can run the ball, they'll be able to score points. I think the hated Ravens can score enough to win, even against a tough Texans defense. When the lines opened, the Over/Under was 38.5. It has since moved down to 36. I was willing to take the Over at 38.5, so I'm delighted to take it at 36. This won't be a shootout, but it doesn't need to be. Everyone was predicting a low scoring game in Denver (including me) and look how that turned out.
NY Giants (+8) over PACKERS:
Again, I think the Packers win, but I don't think they win by more than a touchdown. The last time these two teams met, the score was 38-35, which is probably why the Over/Under is 52.5 and hasn't moved since it opened. These are two proud defenses that don't want to get kicked around like that again. They're also two great offenses, but I think the defenses will step up to keep the score from getting too crazy.
Kickoff temperatures are going to be in the low teens. The last time these two teams faced a situation like this -- cold playoff game in Green Bay in 2007 -- the Giants won 20-17 in overtime. I'm thinking something similar, with the Packers winning by a touchdown.
The X factor here is Aaron Rodgers. He's well rested and wants to shine in his first home playoff game. The crowd will be behind him and his teammates will be fired up. If they get on a roll, it could be Packers and the Over, but I don't think that happens.
On to the picks. Home team in CAPS...
SAN FRANCISCO (+3.5) over NOLA:
I think the 49ers will win this game outright (with a moneyline of +173, no less), but that last half point is really enticing. If the 49ers lose, I think they only lose by a field goal. Take the Under, because the O/U for this game is pretty ridiculous at 47. It's gone down at least a point since it opened, which means that lots of people have been taking the Under, so Vegas is trying to find a number that will convince people to bet the Over. I remain unconvinced. The total needs to drop to 43 for me to take the Over.
This goes beyond the fact that I don't trust the Saints offense outdoors. I also don't trust them on the road, where they went 5-3. San Francisco went 7-1 at home. In their three losses, they lost by 3, 2, and 10 points. They don't get blown out. They don't give up a lot of points. They play close, low scoring games. They played in only three games this season where they would've topped the Over for this game. One of those games was their 48-3 ba-thwumping of Tampa, one of them was a 33-17 victory over the Seahawks where they scored two touchdowns on special teams, the last was the season finale against the Rams, when they had already clinched a bye and let up on defense after taking a 34-14 lead.
The 49ers have the pass rushing talent up front to pressure Brees with four guys and the talent in the back seven to hang with the Saints receivers. Their run defense was ranked #1 in the league, allowing an average of only 77.3 yards per game and only two rushing touchdowns all season (both of which came in the meaningless season finale).
They're better than people think, they play well enough on defense to contain the potent New Orleans offense, and the Saints lose just enough off their fastball on the road and outdoors that the 49ers win a tight, low scoring game.
NEW ENGLAND (-13.5) over Denver:
Yes, I know. I'm totally going to get Tebowed on this one.
These two teams met in Week 15 and the Patriots won 41-23. That game was in Denver. Total points in that game (64) were well above the O/U for this game (50). New England would also have covered this spread.
Denver's a hot team and I'm not trying to undermine what they did to the Steelers (a game which, by the way, would also have covered the Over at 52 points). They're also a streaky team. When they're feeling confident, they're pretty much unstoppable. When they're feeling down, they only manage a field goal at home against the Chiefs. They have every reason to feel confident right now, but I think they've gone past confident and have crossed over into territory that is much, much more dangerous.
Let me explain.
The week before the Wild Card round, I followed the Broncos on Twitter because I wanted to catch news that I might not get somewhere else. I forgot to unfollow them after the loss. On Tuesday, they posted a bunch of quotes from interviews with players. The quotes were regarding that Week 15 loss to the Patriots. When I read the quotes, I hadn't looked up the score, I just knew New England won. From the quotes -- things like, "we just needed to make a couple more plays" and "we missed a couple of opportunities" -- I assumed that they lost by a field goal or a touchdown. The quotes I read weren't even close to being indicative of an 18 point home loss. They've gone past confident and they're in a much, much more dangerous place. They're delusional. Since they were able to play their game their way against the NFL's best defense at home last week, the assumption is that they'll put everything together again and play their game their way on the road next week. The Steelers have the #1 defense, the Patriots have the #31 defense. Easy peasy, lemon squeezy.
The problem is that Bill Belichick has made a career out of making sure that teams don't get to play their game their way. This game is in Foxborough. The Patriots tend to start games out fast. If they jump out to a 14-0 lead at home against this Broncos team, it's going to be a shock to the system, like a six year old watching Belichick curb stomp the Easter Bunny.
I think the Patriots jump out to a big early lead, the Broncos re-group at halftime, and they come out fighting in the second half. I don't think they'll get anywhere close to coming back, but they've got way too much potential on offense to not score a bunch of points against a crappy New England defense. I think Champ Bailey can handle Wes Welker, but Heath Miller gouged the Broncos pretty bad last week. Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are way better receivers and are way more involved in the Patriots offense than Miller is for the Steelers.
Denver allowed 23 points to a banged up Steelers offense that had half a quarterback and three backup offensive linemen. If Isaac Redman can rush for 7.1 yards per carry and 121 total yards behind that offensive line, then some combination of BenJarvis Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead, and Stevan Ridley will be able to do just as good behind a very capable, very healthy Patriots offensive line.
Houston (+9) over BALTIMORE:
I think that the hated Ravens will win this game, but I don't think they'll cover. The Texans showed last week that they're a good team and they deserve to be here. Most of the guys on that team had never played in a playoff game before. They all realized how great it was to win in the postseason and they're bound and determined not to found out how bad it sucks to lose.
If Houston can't run the ball, they're dead meat. Their offensive line knows this. In order to run the ball successfully, you need to win at the point of attack. Winning at the point of attack is equal parts talent, scheme, and determination. The hated Ravens have a stout front seven and defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano has brought back the swagger and intimidation factor to this unit. Houston has one of the best lines in the league and their offensive line coach has brought his charges up from the dredges to the elite the last six seasons. Scheme and talent is a wash. Determination is the X factor.
Houston's offensive line knows that the season is riding on them. Baltimore's front seven knows that, if they're able to stop the run, they can tee off on TJ Yates and win this game easily. I'd say the Texans offensive line has more motivation and they'll be more determined.
If Houston can run the ball, they'll be able to score points. I think the hated Ravens can score enough to win, even against a tough Texans defense. When the lines opened, the Over/Under was 38.5. It has since moved down to 36. I was willing to take the Over at 38.5, so I'm delighted to take it at 36. This won't be a shootout, but it doesn't need to be. Everyone was predicting a low scoring game in Denver (including me) and look how that turned out.
NY Giants (+8) over PACKERS:
Again, I think the Packers win, but I don't think they win by more than a touchdown. The last time these two teams met, the score was 38-35, which is probably why the Over/Under is 52.5 and hasn't moved since it opened. These are two proud defenses that don't want to get kicked around like that again. They're also two great offenses, but I think the defenses will step up to keep the score from getting too crazy.
Kickoff temperatures are going to be in the low teens. The last time these two teams faced a situation like this -- cold playoff game in Green Bay in 2007 -- the Giants won 20-17 in overtime. I'm thinking something similar, with the Packers winning by a touchdown.
The X factor here is Aaron Rodgers. He's well rested and wants to shine in his first home playoff game. The crowd will be behind him and his teammates will be fired up. If they get on a roll, it could be Packers and the Over, but I don't think that happens.
Thursday, January 05, 2012
2011 Playoff Predictions
I don't think this is the year for the Steelers, but I never think it's their year. I didn't think it was their year in 2005 or 2008 or 2010, but I totally thought it was their year in 1998 and 2006, so there's that. Having said that, there are only four teams that scare me in both brackets.
In order of most scary to least scary:
On with the predictions. Hopefully, I'll do slightly better than I did last year. By "slightly better" I mean "not completely getting everything wrong and looking like an idiot."
AFC Bracket:
I know that TJ Yates has an injured shoulder and that the Texans backed into the playoffs. I also know that it's his non-throwing shoulder and he's practiced all week. Cincinnati didn't exactly storm into the playoffs. They went 3-5 in the second half of the season. They beat Arizona, Cleveland, and St. Louis. They went 0-7 against playoff teams. Houston wins this weekend and then has to travel to Baltimore, where they already lost convincingly way back when Matt Schaub was their quarterback.
I'd also like to take this opportunity to say that the Bengals really scare me. They got AJ Green and Andy Dalton in this year's draft and they fleeced Oakland out of a bunch of picks in the Carson Palmer trade. They scare me more than anyone in the AFC over the next five seasons, including the Patriots and hated Ravens.
The Texans have themselves an exceptional offensive line and a couple of great running backs. They also have a solid defense, especially now that Wade Phillips is back on the sidelines. But, they still have TJ Yates as their quarterback and that's not going to cut it against the Ben Roethlisbergers and Joe Flaccos and Tom Bradys of this bracket.
Football Jesus will also fall short against a real defense and a real quarterback, but that game is going to be ugly. If I wasn't obligated to watch it, I think I would pass. There are going to be bad passes, turnovers, failed red zone opportunities, and half the Steelers hobbling around with injuries. It's going to end with someone winning 16-12 and I believe that someone is going to be the Steelers.
Houston travels to Baltimore and gets crushed. The Steelers will have to go to Foxborough, where the Patriots are 0-2 in their last two postseason games. I don't think that means that they just roll over and die. The fact that they have Tom Brady and Bill Belichick and Wes Welker and two of the best tight ends in the NFL, plus a great offensive line, makes them dangerous in a single elimination tournament. Since I know I'll be wrong anyway, I may as well pick the Steelers to go to New England and finally beat Tom Brady when it matters.
If the Steelers play the hated Ravens at any point in the playoffs, that's going to be Baltimore's Super Bowl. They're going to go all out and they will not allow themselves to lose. If the hated Ravens need to go to Foxborough, I think they still win. They have the best individual athlete in the AFC bracket (Ray Rice) and the best defense. They have a veteran roster that is loaded with postseason experience. They used the offseason and regular season to prepare themselves for this run. They will beat anyone that stands in their way, even the Steelers.
You know who says it's tough to beat a team three times in one season? Teams that already lost twice. It's hard to beat any team once, especially when that team is a playoff team. The fact that you already beat them twice only gives you confidence. It also gives you film that you can look at and say, "Oh, yeah. That's how we beat those guys the other two times. Let's do that again."
As much as it pains me to type this, the Hated Baltimore Ravens will be your AFC representative in this year's Super Bowl. Now for the NFC...
NFC Bracket:
If the road to the Super in the NFC went through the Super Dome, the Saints would play in -- and win -- Super Bowl XLVI. But, they have to go outdoors and the non-dome version of the Saints don't scare me. I think that they crush Detroit at home on Saturday, but I think they fold outside the friendly confines of their dome in San Francisco.
The 49ers are a great team, but they're not a championship team. They're too conservative, too unreliable when they get inside the 20, and Alex Smith is their quarterback. Smith has done a good job of making the right decisions and not turning the ball over, but he's not going to be able to cut it when he has to throw down against Aaron Rodgers and an opportunistic Packers defense.
Eli Manning is a great story and the Giants have a lot of playoff experience, but that only goes so far when it comes to bridging the talent gap. Atlanta has Matty Ice, a still-feisty Michael Turner, and an explosive offense. They don't play enough defense to win it all, though. The Falcons traded away their future to get Julio Jones and make it to the next level, but I don't think they've done enough to get past Green Bay.
For a 15-1 team, the Packers aren't a prohibitive favorite. One of the reasons people are down on Green Bay is because they finished dead last in total defense in terms of yardage allowed. But, they finished 14th in points allowed and first in total points. When it comes down to it, they have an aggressive bend-don't-break defense and an incredibly efficient offense. They also have the best quarterback in the bracket in Rodgers.
Atlanta beats New York, New Orleans beats Detroit, San Francisco beats New Orleans, Green Bay beats Atlanta, Packers beat 49ers to advance to the Super Bowl.
That means it'll be a Packers-Hated Ravens Super Bowl and I'm not sure who I'll root for. The old adage is that defense wins championships. That will be put to the test this postseason. Will the Packers be the first team to finish last in total defense but still win the Super Bowl? Will Baltimore have enough on defense to slow Green Bay down? I'm really not sure.
My gut feeling is that the hated Ravens protect the ball well enough to not make key mistakes against the Packers. I think they score enough points and play well enough on defense that they can win a close game.
It pains me even more to say this, but...
Predictions:
AFC Playoffs:
Houston over Cincinnati
Steelers over Denver
Baltimore over Houston
Steelers over Patriots
Baltimore over Steelers
NFC Playoffs:
Saints over Lions
Falcons over Giants
Packers over Falcons
49ers over Saints
Packers over 49ers
Super Bowl:
Hated Ravens over Packers
In order of most scary to least scary:
- The Saints (indoors)
- Green Bay
- Hated Ravens
- New England
If I were a playoff team, those are, in order, the four teams I would not want to play. I'm not saying that anyone else in the bracket is a pushover, I'm just saying those are the scary teams. Given that New Orleans has zero chance of playing indoors throughout the postseason, I don't think they're going to make it. If they somehow make it all the way to Indy, I feel sorry for the AFC team that has the misfortune of playing them in a dome.
On with the predictions. Hopefully, I'll do slightly better than I did last year. By "slightly better" I mean "not completely getting everything wrong and looking like an idiot."
AFC Bracket:
I know that TJ Yates has an injured shoulder and that the Texans backed into the playoffs. I also know that it's his non-throwing shoulder and he's practiced all week. Cincinnati didn't exactly storm into the playoffs. They went 3-5 in the second half of the season. They beat Arizona, Cleveland, and St. Louis. They went 0-7 against playoff teams. Houston wins this weekend and then has to travel to Baltimore, where they already lost convincingly way back when Matt Schaub was their quarterback.
I'd also like to take this opportunity to say that the Bengals really scare me. They got AJ Green and Andy Dalton in this year's draft and they fleeced Oakland out of a bunch of picks in the Carson Palmer trade. They scare me more than anyone in the AFC over the next five seasons, including the Patriots and hated Ravens.
The Texans have themselves an exceptional offensive line and a couple of great running backs. They also have a solid defense, especially now that Wade Phillips is back on the sidelines. But, they still have TJ Yates as their quarterback and that's not going to cut it against the Ben Roethlisbergers and Joe Flaccos and Tom Bradys of this bracket.
Football Jesus will also fall short against a real defense and a real quarterback, but that game is going to be ugly. If I wasn't obligated to watch it, I think I would pass. There are going to be bad passes, turnovers, failed red zone opportunities, and half the Steelers hobbling around with injuries. It's going to end with someone winning 16-12 and I believe that someone is going to be the Steelers.
Houston travels to Baltimore and gets crushed. The Steelers will have to go to Foxborough, where the Patriots are 0-2 in their last two postseason games. I don't think that means that they just roll over and die. The fact that they have Tom Brady and Bill Belichick and Wes Welker and two of the best tight ends in the NFL, plus a great offensive line, makes them dangerous in a single elimination tournament. Since I know I'll be wrong anyway, I may as well pick the Steelers to go to New England and finally beat Tom Brady when it matters.
If the Steelers play the hated Ravens at any point in the playoffs, that's going to be Baltimore's Super Bowl. They're going to go all out and they will not allow themselves to lose. If the hated Ravens need to go to Foxborough, I think they still win. They have the best individual athlete in the AFC bracket (Ray Rice) and the best defense. They have a veteran roster that is loaded with postseason experience. They used the offseason and regular season to prepare themselves for this run. They will beat anyone that stands in their way, even the Steelers.
You know who says it's tough to beat a team three times in one season? Teams that already lost twice. It's hard to beat any team once, especially when that team is a playoff team. The fact that you already beat them twice only gives you confidence. It also gives you film that you can look at and say, "Oh, yeah. That's how we beat those guys the other two times. Let's do that again."
As much as it pains me to type this, the Hated Baltimore Ravens will be your AFC representative in this year's Super Bowl. Now for the NFC...
NFC Bracket:
If the road to the Super in the NFC went through the Super Dome, the Saints would play in -- and win -- Super Bowl XLVI. But, they have to go outdoors and the non-dome version of the Saints don't scare me. I think that they crush Detroit at home on Saturday, but I think they fold outside the friendly confines of their dome in San Francisco.
The 49ers are a great team, but they're not a championship team. They're too conservative, too unreliable when they get inside the 20, and Alex Smith is their quarterback. Smith has done a good job of making the right decisions and not turning the ball over, but he's not going to be able to cut it when he has to throw down against Aaron Rodgers and an opportunistic Packers defense.
Eli Manning is a great story and the Giants have a lot of playoff experience, but that only goes so far when it comes to bridging the talent gap. Atlanta has Matty Ice, a still-feisty Michael Turner, and an explosive offense. They don't play enough defense to win it all, though. The Falcons traded away their future to get Julio Jones and make it to the next level, but I don't think they've done enough to get past Green Bay.
For a 15-1 team, the Packers aren't a prohibitive favorite. One of the reasons people are down on Green Bay is because they finished dead last in total defense in terms of yardage allowed. But, they finished 14th in points allowed and first in total points. When it comes down to it, they have an aggressive bend-don't-break defense and an incredibly efficient offense. They also have the best quarterback in the bracket in Rodgers.
Atlanta beats New York, New Orleans beats Detroit, San Francisco beats New Orleans, Green Bay beats Atlanta, Packers beat 49ers to advance to the Super Bowl.
That means it'll be a Packers-Hated Ravens Super Bowl and I'm not sure who I'll root for. The old adage is that defense wins championships. That will be put to the test this postseason. Will the Packers be the first team to finish last in total defense but still win the Super Bowl? Will Baltimore have enough on defense to slow Green Bay down? I'm really not sure.
My gut feeling is that the hated Ravens protect the ball well enough to not make key mistakes against the Packers. I think they score enough points and play well enough on defense that they can win a close game.
It pains me even more to say this, but...
Predictions:
AFC Playoffs:
Houston over Cincinnati
Steelers over Denver
Baltimore over Houston
Steelers over Patriots
Baltimore over Steelers
NFC Playoffs:
Saints over Lions
Falcons over Giants
Packers over Falcons
49ers over Saints
Packers over 49ers
Super Bowl:
Hated Ravens over Packers
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
Good News and Bad News: Steelers at 49ers
The hated Ravens lost and the Steelers qualified for the playoffs before they even played a snap on Monday night. There's your good news. That's the whole list.
As far as semi-good news is concerned, LaMarr Woodley didn't suffer a setback and Mewelde Moore was the only person that was seriously hurt. Ben Roethlisberger doesn't count for that list because he was already hurt.
For the bad news section, it's complicated (and probably lengthy). San Francisco came out and really kicked the Steelers butts. That's the long and the short of it. I knew they were a great team, but I had no idea they were as deep and as talented as they are. I undervalued Alex Smith. I underestimated how smart their players and coaches are. I knew they were disciplined and they worked hard, but I was not aware of the fact that an alarming number of players on that team have a very high football IQ. Having said that, they still play Marty Ball and they will still get destroyed by the Saints or Packers, provided Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers are healthy.
For a semi-silver lining in the bad news, it's not like the 49ers gave other teams in the league a blueprint for how to beat the Steelers. Most folks already know how to do that, it's just incredibly difficult to do. Contain Roethlisberger, win the turnover battle, avoid costly penalties, and stop the run. But, the thing is that San Francisco completely outplayed the Steelers. "Play significantly better than the other team" is a blueprint for beating any team in the NFL, so no secrets were lost on Monday Night Football.
You could complain about the blackouts or the officiating -- honestly, I think there were some questionable calls that went in the 49ers favor -- but I don't play that game and I'm not into analyzing "what ifs" as I prefer to take a look at what happened instead of what could've maybe happened had things gone much differently than how they actually did. Maybe, if he had two good ankles, Roethlisberger hangs in for another half second for Mike Wallace to clear and he throws a touchdown instead of an interception. Maybe he's able to step up in the pocket, force the linebacker to move up, and deliver a more catchable ball to Heath Miller on the second interception. Maybe he does something to escape pressure and doesn't fumble the ball. Maybe he's focused on the clock instead of the intense, throbbing pain in his left ankle at the end of the first half and that drive ends in a field goal. If all the calls go in the Steelers favor and Ben's healthy, maybe the final score is more like 38-17 for the good guys.
But, as I see it, the 49ers probably would've won even if Roethlisberger is healthy. Given that this team is headed to the postseason, it's more than a little disconcerting that they can't seem to beat playoff teams. This season, the Steelers are 1-4 against playoff teams (beat the Patriots, lost to Houston, lost to San Francisco, and lost to the freakin' hated Ravens two freakin' times). That's no good. That would be categorized as bad news. In three of those losses -- the opener at Baltimore, at Houston, and at San Francisco -- they played like total crap on the road. So, just because they won the Super Bowl as a #6 seed before doesn't necessarily mean they'll do it again.
This team is going to the playoffs. OK? They're going to the playoffs. How they do when they get there remains to be seen. All is not lost because they blew an opportunity for pole position on the #1 seed. First of all, there's the small matter of the fact that they'd still need to beat St. Louis and Cleveland. Second of all, they had the #1 seed in 2001 and 2004 and they didn't make it to the Super Bowl. The last two Super Bowl runs, they were the #2 seed. Not getting the #1 seed doesn't destroy the season. Erratic play and Ben Roethlisberger's ankle, on the other hand, could very well destroy the season.
Really, the key issue is Roethlisberger's ankle. Erratic play is difficult to predict or control, because it's erratic. This team will go as far as Roethlisberger takes them. The Steelers aren't a Peyton Manning situation, but I can say this: This is a nine win team without #7 and I can't see them making a deep playoff run if he isn't healthy.
That means that, if you're Mike Tomlin, you have to make a decision: Either sit Roethlisberger and hope he gets better or play him and hope he can "walk it off" over the course of the next couple weeks. My preference would be for the former, but I think Tomlin will go for the latter. He's let Roethlisberger go out there the last two games when it was clear the man could barely walk. I'm not sure if that irrationality is linked to respect for Roethlisberger, a belief that Ben at 15% is better than Batch or Dixon, or the fact that Tomlin tends to side with his players on most things. Maybe it's all three.
If I was Mike Tomlin... how cool would it be to be Mike Tomlin? Do you think he wakes up every morning, goes to the mirror, and says, "Who's the head coach of one of the most popular, stable, and successful franchises in the NFL? Who's the youngest coach to win a Super Bowl? YOU ARE! Yes you are!" Or does he look in the mirror and say, "It's a process. We're going to continue to... uh... evaluate how awesome I am. It's week to week." Am I the only one that thinks about stuff like this? Yes? OK, let's move on.
My decision would be to start Dennis Dixon for the last two games of the season. I may as well ask for a pony while I'm at it, so let's just say start Charlie Batch for the first game, he gets hurt, then Dixon plays a game and three quarters. At home against the Rams and at Cleveland are extremely winnable games. I think they win those games without Roethlisberger. Maybe Baltimore honks away another road game (they're 3-4 on the road) and Ben gets another week to rest. High ankle sprains are weird. Kendrell Bell missed most of a season with one, Adrian Peterson missed two games, but then again he could be an alien. Maybe resting the injury will just make him rusty and won't help it heal enough so that he's whole again. Maybe playing through it is a better call. I don't believe that playing through it is a better call, but I've been wrong before.
Let's assume that Roethlisberger plays through the injury. This makes me very nervous. I think the Steelers can win the next two games with a 15% healthy Roethlisberger, an 85% healthy Batch (is he ever really healthy?), or Dennis Dixon. What worries me is that fact that the 49ers defenders were extraordinarily gentile with Ben on Monday night. They didn't take a shot at him, even if it was within the rules. They sacked him gently. When it became evident that the Steelers needed to pass on every down, San Francisco -- smartly and in a sportsmanlike manner -- didn't big blitz and try to tee off on Roethlisberger.
I would hope that the Rams and Browns would pay him the same courtesy, but I doubt it. I especially doubt it for the Cleveland game. It's in Cleveland, the Browns defenders are probably still mad about the Colt McCoy fiasco, and they still consider the game to be a rivalry. Both teams have nothing to lose. It's possible that the 49er defenders took it easy on Ben because they didn't want to draw a costly roughing the passer penalty. It looked like they were just being nice, but that's possible. The Rams and Browns have nothing to lose. There's a distinct possibility that they take a shot at Roethlisberger when they have a chance, or even if they don't have a chance within the rules.
I've had ankle problems and I've walked them off. I understand that it's different for me than it is for a professional athlete that needs to do all kinds of athletic things day to day. My big problem is that I think that, in one of these next two games (most likely at Cleveland), someone is going to take a serious shot at Roethlisberger that will end his season. Anything that ends his season ends the Steelers season.
And, selfishly, I would like to be able to enjoy the last two games of the season without wincing every time Roethlisberger drops back to pass or throws a pass or gets hit after he throws.
At this point, the Steelers are in the playoffs regardless. I guess we'll see what they have in store for us and Ben Roethlisberger. It's a process. We take it week-to-week.
As far as semi-good news is concerned, LaMarr Woodley didn't suffer a setback and Mewelde Moore was the only person that was seriously hurt. Ben Roethlisberger doesn't count for that list because he was already hurt.
For the bad news section, it's complicated (and probably lengthy). San Francisco came out and really kicked the Steelers butts. That's the long and the short of it. I knew they were a great team, but I had no idea they were as deep and as talented as they are. I undervalued Alex Smith. I underestimated how smart their players and coaches are. I knew they were disciplined and they worked hard, but I was not aware of the fact that an alarming number of players on that team have a very high football IQ. Having said that, they still play Marty Ball and they will still get destroyed by the Saints or Packers, provided Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers are healthy.
For a semi-silver lining in the bad news, it's not like the 49ers gave other teams in the league a blueprint for how to beat the Steelers. Most folks already know how to do that, it's just incredibly difficult to do. Contain Roethlisberger, win the turnover battle, avoid costly penalties, and stop the run. But, the thing is that San Francisco completely outplayed the Steelers. "Play significantly better than the other team" is a blueprint for beating any team in the NFL, so no secrets were lost on Monday Night Football.
You could complain about the blackouts or the officiating -- honestly, I think there were some questionable calls that went in the 49ers favor -- but I don't play that game and I'm not into analyzing "what ifs" as I prefer to take a look at what happened instead of what could've maybe happened had things gone much differently than how they actually did. Maybe, if he had two good ankles, Roethlisberger hangs in for another half second for Mike Wallace to clear and he throws a touchdown instead of an interception. Maybe he's able to step up in the pocket, force the linebacker to move up, and deliver a more catchable ball to Heath Miller on the second interception. Maybe he does something to escape pressure and doesn't fumble the ball. Maybe he's focused on the clock instead of the intense, throbbing pain in his left ankle at the end of the first half and that drive ends in a field goal. If all the calls go in the Steelers favor and Ben's healthy, maybe the final score is more like 38-17 for the good guys.
But, as I see it, the 49ers probably would've won even if Roethlisberger is healthy. Given that this team is headed to the postseason, it's more than a little disconcerting that they can't seem to beat playoff teams. This season, the Steelers are 1-4 against playoff teams (beat the Patriots, lost to Houston, lost to San Francisco, and lost to the freakin' hated Ravens two freakin' times). That's no good. That would be categorized as bad news. In three of those losses -- the opener at Baltimore, at Houston, and at San Francisco -- they played like total crap on the road. So, just because they won the Super Bowl as a #6 seed before doesn't necessarily mean they'll do it again.
This team is going to the playoffs. OK? They're going to the playoffs. How they do when they get there remains to be seen. All is not lost because they blew an opportunity for pole position on the #1 seed. First of all, there's the small matter of the fact that they'd still need to beat St. Louis and Cleveland. Second of all, they had the #1 seed in 2001 and 2004 and they didn't make it to the Super Bowl. The last two Super Bowl runs, they were the #2 seed. Not getting the #1 seed doesn't destroy the season. Erratic play and Ben Roethlisberger's ankle, on the other hand, could very well destroy the season.
Really, the key issue is Roethlisberger's ankle. Erratic play is difficult to predict or control, because it's erratic. This team will go as far as Roethlisberger takes them. The Steelers aren't a Peyton Manning situation, but I can say this: This is a nine win team without #7 and I can't see them making a deep playoff run if he isn't healthy.
That means that, if you're Mike Tomlin, you have to make a decision: Either sit Roethlisberger and hope he gets better or play him and hope he can "walk it off" over the course of the next couple weeks. My preference would be for the former, but I think Tomlin will go for the latter. He's let Roethlisberger go out there the last two games when it was clear the man could barely walk. I'm not sure if that irrationality is linked to respect for Roethlisberger, a belief that Ben at 15% is better than Batch or Dixon, or the fact that Tomlin tends to side with his players on most things. Maybe it's all three.
If I was Mike Tomlin... how cool would it be to be Mike Tomlin? Do you think he wakes up every morning, goes to the mirror, and says, "Who's the head coach of one of the most popular, stable, and successful franchises in the NFL? Who's the youngest coach to win a Super Bowl? YOU ARE! Yes you are!" Or does he look in the mirror and say, "It's a process. We're going to continue to... uh... evaluate how awesome I am. It's week to week." Am I the only one that thinks about stuff like this? Yes? OK, let's move on.
My decision would be to start Dennis Dixon for the last two games of the season. I may as well ask for a pony while I'm at it, so let's just say start Charlie Batch for the first game, he gets hurt, then Dixon plays a game and three quarters. At home against the Rams and at Cleveland are extremely winnable games. I think they win those games without Roethlisberger. Maybe Baltimore honks away another road game (they're 3-4 on the road) and Ben gets another week to rest. High ankle sprains are weird. Kendrell Bell missed most of a season with one, Adrian Peterson missed two games, but then again he could be an alien. Maybe resting the injury will just make him rusty and won't help it heal enough so that he's whole again. Maybe playing through it is a better call. I don't believe that playing through it is a better call, but I've been wrong before.
Let's assume that Roethlisberger plays through the injury. This makes me very nervous. I think the Steelers can win the next two games with a 15% healthy Roethlisberger, an 85% healthy Batch (is he ever really healthy?), or Dennis Dixon. What worries me is that fact that the 49ers defenders were extraordinarily gentile with Ben on Monday night. They didn't take a shot at him, even if it was within the rules. They sacked him gently. When it became evident that the Steelers needed to pass on every down, San Francisco -- smartly and in a sportsmanlike manner -- didn't big blitz and try to tee off on Roethlisberger.
I would hope that the Rams and Browns would pay him the same courtesy, but I doubt it. I especially doubt it for the Cleveland game. It's in Cleveland, the Browns defenders are probably still mad about the Colt McCoy fiasco, and they still consider the game to be a rivalry. Both teams have nothing to lose. It's possible that the 49er defenders took it easy on Ben because they didn't want to draw a costly roughing the passer penalty. It looked like they were just being nice, but that's possible. The Rams and Browns have nothing to lose. There's a distinct possibility that they take a shot at Roethlisberger when they have a chance, or even if they don't have a chance within the rules.
I've had ankle problems and I've walked them off. I understand that it's different for me than it is for a professional athlete that needs to do all kinds of athletic things day to day. My big problem is that I think that, in one of these next two games (most likely at Cleveland), someone is going to take a serious shot at Roethlisberger that will end his season. Anything that ends his season ends the Steelers season.
And, selfishly, I would like to be able to enjoy the last two games of the season without wincing every time Roethlisberger drops back to pass or throws a pass or gets hit after he throws.
At this point, the Steelers are in the playoffs regardless. I guess we'll see what they have in store for us and Ben Roethlisberger. It's a process. We take it week-to-week.
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