My Prediction... Pain: Steelers at Hated Ravens Preview

I have a feeling that this game is going to suck.  A lot.  Like, suck more than the last two games, if that's even possible.  In the Sunday night game two weeks ago, I at least saw a silver lining, a way that the Steelers might be able to pull it off.  By the time kickoff rolled around, I actually thought they had a good shot at winning.  This week?  Not so much.

First and foremost, Unibrow is significantly better at home than he is on the road.  One of the reasons I thought the Steelers might be able to beat the hated Ravens in Week 11 was that he loses about 40 quarterback rating points when he's not in Baltimore.  He didn't play very well at Heinz Field, but now he gains those 40 points this week.  Torrey Smith was shut down by Ike Taylor in the last game and Ray Rice was kept pretty much in check.  The only way this game stays close is if that happens again. Flacco will be able to spread the ball around to Dennis Pitta and Anquan Boldin and will be more effective even if Smith and Rice don't blow up, but we're looking at shades of the 2011 opener if they do.

Then you have the fact that the offense probably won't be able to get going with Charlie Batch behind center.  I'm guessing he'll be on a short leash, but Brian Hoyer and Byron Leftwich aren't exactly attractive alternatives.  Baltimore's defense has been surprisingly soft against the run this season, but they were able to hold Jonathan Dwyer and Rashard Mendenhall to 88 yards on 23 attempts.  The Steelers had 134 yards total, but 31 of that came on Leftwich's touchdown run, which skews the average. 

In order to have a shot at winning this game, they need to keep it low scoring and ugly like the last game.  In order to do that, they need to run the ball effectively and take some of the pressure off Batch.  Unfortunately, Batch doesn't scare anyone, especially the hated Ravens.  They'll stack 15 guys in the box and make Batch beat them.  I don't think there's a lot of people that believe he can beat them, possibly not even Batch himself.

While the logical center of my brain knows that there's a very low statistical probability of them committing eight turnovers again, I can't convince the rest of my brain that it's most likely not going to happen.  I can seriously see six or seven turnovers, even if they don't get to eight.  If they lose the turnover battle in a big way, they're going to lose big.

There are a lot of factors that point to this game ending in a blowout and some serious tears, but I don't think it's going to be that lopsided.  Yes, Charlie Batch is a shadow of his former self and yes, the hated Ravens still have a lot of talent on defense.  Yes, Flacco is lights out at home, but he's also struggled against the Steelers throughout his career, regardless of where the game's being played.  They don't have Ben Roethisberger -- finally, officially ruled out today -- or LaMarr Woodley, but they get Antonio Brown back and Troy Polamalu is apparently going to play a significant role on defense. 

With Brown back, that takes the defensive focus away from Mike Wallace and allows Heath and Emmanuel Sanders more room to roam.  Sure, Batch is still throwing them the ball, but putting Brown back in the mix makes this a better offense.  Batch has a faster delivery than Leftwich, so that means they can mix in some quick screens and make Baltimore think twice about loading up the line of scrimmage and leaving Wallace, Sanders, and Brown free to roam after the catch.  One missed tackle could mean a huge play.

If they get something out of the passing game, that opens things up for the running game, they don't turn the ball over, and Troy does something spectacular on defense, then maybe there's a chance for victory.  But... I highly doubt that all those things happen on Sunday.

They'll accomplish enough of those objectives to keep the game from being a laugher, but I think they ultimately fall short.

Prediction:
Hated Ravens 23, Steelers 13

Handicapping the Championship Games

Through the first two rounds I went 5-3 in the Wild Card games and 5-3 in the Divisional Round games, so at least I'm consistent.

I'm actually 7-1 ATS, I've just been horribly wrong (3-5 record) when betting against the Over/Under, which is why I've only won three parlays out of eight bets.  This is on MyBookie not real, actual money.  Gambling is illegal, dontcha know.

On to the picks.  Home team in CAPS...

NEW ENGLAND (-7) over Hated Ravens:

When this line opened at 7.5, I was decided that I was going to take Baltimore and not look back.  My thinking was that the Patriots weren't going to win this game by more than a touchdown.  Then it dropped to 7.  Now, if New England wins by a touchdown, it's a push.  I'd rather take a loss than a push because I'm an idiot, so I'm now prepared to go big or go home.

I originally predicted that the hated Ravens were going to represent the AFC in Super Bowl XLVI, even going so far as to state that they could beat the Patriots in Foxborough.  Time and sanity have made me reconsider that position.

Baltimore doesn't have the personnel to match up against Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, though I think their cornerbacks are physical enough to at least slow Wes Welker down.  I don't think they can get consistent pressure on Tom Brady with just four guys -- they weren't able to against Houston and Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil weren't able to get to Brady in the Denver game -- which means he'll have enough time to scan the field and throw the ball to the tight end that's most open.  New England has gotten better at protecting the football as the season has progressed and the hated Ravens will need to force at least three turnovers to win this game.

I am also taking the over.  That's a pretty bold move, considering Baltimore has a great defense and the total points is 50.  I think that the hated Ravens -- especially Ray Rice catching balls out of the backfield -- will be able to score points on this craptastic Patriots defense, but I don't think they'll be able to do enough. 

This Baltimore team isn't built to win shoot-outs and I think that's what this game will turn into.  New England is built to win shoot-outs and that's exactly what they want this game to turn into.  They're at home, they're playing well, they're feeling confident, and they're just far enough removed from their last Super Bowl appearance (and disappointment) to be hungry to return.

On top of that, they've won nine straight and only fail to cover a total points of 50 in one of those games (34-3 win over Kansas City where they took their foot off the gas).  They're also 6-1-2 against a seven point spread in their last nine.

SAN FRANCISCO (-2.5) over NY Giants:

This opened at 49ers by 2.5 with an O/U of 42 and it hasn't moved.  I think it's just right.  Either you believe the Niners will cover or the Giants will win.  Either you think it's going to be a fairly high scoring game or you think it's going to be a snooze fest.  I happen to think San Francisco wins by at least a field goal and I'm taking the Over.

I picked against New York twice already this postseason and I was wrong twice.  The first time I overvalued the Falcons and the second time they were playing the freaking Packers.  I'll admit that I'm not as sold on the Giants as the rest of the world.  I'll admit that I'm probably too enamored with the 49ers.  I know that New York is playing better football than they were in November (when they lost at San Francisco 27-20).

Here's the thing: The 49ers are also playing better football than they were in November.  They've proved they can put up points.  They've proved they can win shoot-outs in pressure situations (like they did against the Saints last week).  Alex Smith has shown that he can carry this team -- for brief periods of time -- if need be.  They also force a lot of turnovers, run the ball well, and stop the run on defense.  They can get to the quarterback and they can play man or zone.  This is a very versatile team and I think they're good enough to beat the streaking Giants.

Also, I watched that game in November.  The final score is misleading.  San Francisco controlled the game on both sides of the ball, but entered the fourth quarter trailing 13-12.  If they dominate the Giants like they did in the regular season, then they'll be the ones in the lead heading into the final quarter. 

Even if the defense unravels like they did against the Saints, the offense has shown that it can keep up and score points late in games.  As much as I'd love to see another Giants-Patriots Super Bowl (with Eli Manning again shattering Tom Brady's dreams), I don't see it happening. 

Good News and Bad News: Steelers at Hated Ravens

As far as good news is concerned, there isn't much to report:

1. I have Mike Wallace on my fantasy team, so that's at least something.
2. As my buddy Dan pointed out earlier today, we don't have to carry the stress of an undefeated season hanging over our heads.  We can relax in the knowledge that the Steelers are going to go 16-0 this season and we don't have to worry about it every week.
3. According to NFL bylaws, the Steelers will only be given one loss for yesterday's performance, instead of the three or four losses that they deserve.  That means that they're only 0-1 and there's a lot of season left to be played.
4. Ike Taylor looked good and effectively took Lee Evans out of the game.

There's lots of bad news, though:

1. The offensive line played pretty crappy.
2. Ben Roethlisberger got abused and was still in the game late in the fourth quarter, even though there was no chance for a comeback.
3. Rashard Mendenhall looked really tentative heading into the hole after that bumbled exchange/fumble in the third quarter.  He started out pretty strong, but the hated Ravens took him out of the game in the fourth quarter since the Steelers had to start throwing every down.
4. Seven turnovers.
5. Looks like Willie Colon got hurt.  Again.  So that's awesome.
6. The defense might have looked younger and more active had 74 year old Dick LeBeau thrown on some pads and ran out on to the field.
7. Bryant McFadden -- who I've defended in the past -- looked awful and the Steelers really need to think about getting Keenan Lewis or William Gay in there.
8. The Baltimore players were awfully proud of themselves after the game, which means they might not shut up about this victory until the Steelers play the hated Ravens again in November.  
9. My horribly, horribly misguided Preview will be on the Internet forever.
10. The biggest thing I got wrong in that Preview was that the hated Ravens were very, very ready for this game and the Steelers were absolutely not ready.
11. There were a lot of things that went wrong yesterday, but the biggest thing that concerned me was the way Baltimore blew the Steelers off the line on both sides of the ball.  Sure, it is possible that the guys on defense are older and slower, but they didn't get any smaller or weaker with age.  On offense, the line should have an advantage (I guess that's just in theory) because they know where they're supposed to go at the snap.  The defense shouldn't be able to jump to the ball faster than the offense because (again, in theory, since this isn't what we saw yesterday) they're supposed to be reacting and shouldn't know what's coming.

Now, for some perspective.

It's only one game and this is no time to panic.  They're not going to turn the ball over seven times in a game again this season.  Baltimore has a really good team and they played almost flawlessly yesterday.  The Steelers looked like a big pile of steaming crap, no doubt, but a big part of that was that the hated Ravens played exceptionally well.

The offensive line will play better.  In general, it would be difficult for the team to play much worse, so they will all play better in the next 15 games.  It will probably be several years before we see Roethlisberger play another stinker like that.

The pass rush will improve; playing against a much crappier team like the Seahawks or Manning-less Colts will help that along.

As I see it, the primary issue with the defense yesterday was that they were out of position for most of the game.  That made them have to hustle into position to get to the play.  When they got in position, they weren't able to square up and tackle.  This is responsible for two issues: The fact that they looked really slow and old and the fact that their tackling fundamentals were atrocious.

Pretty much everyone looks slow and old when they're chasing after Ray Rice.  Additionally, chasing guys down all day wears you out and makes you move even slower.  In previous seasons, LeBeau was able to insulate his guys from this by setting it out so that the play was always in front of them.  They were behind the play and doing a lot of chasing because the hated Ravens ran a lot of plays outside the hashmarks and most of the defense was jammed up in the middle of the field.  I'm sure the defense will be more spread out on Sunday against Seattle.  I'm sure the focus will be on getting to the quarterback and keeping everything in front of them.

McFadden does not get a pass on this.  You don't let Anquan Boldin get behind you if you give him a seven yard cushion at the snap.  That should never happen.

The other good news is that the Steelers know they have a lot of stuff they need to fix.  They may be able to fix everything by the time they play the Seahawks, but the other other good news is that they probably don't need to fix everything until they play Houston in Week 4, since they should be able to beat Seattle and the Colts without being 100% together.

And, hey, this also means that the Steelers will be the ones out for revenge come November.