I have a feeling that this game is going to suck. A lot. Like, suck more than the last two games, if that's even possible. In the Sunday night game two weeks ago, I at least saw a silver lining, a way that the Steelers might be able to pull it off. By the time kickoff rolled around, I actually thought they had a good shot at winning. This week? Not so much.
First and foremost, Unibrow is significantly better at home than he is on the road. One of the reasons I thought the Steelers might be able to beat the hated Ravens in Week 11 was that he loses about 40 quarterback rating points when he's not in Baltimore. He didn't play very well at Heinz Field, but now he gains those 40 points this week. Torrey Smith was shut down by Ike Taylor in the last game and Ray Rice was kept pretty much in check. The only way this game stays close is if that happens again. Flacco will be able to spread the ball around to Dennis Pitta and Anquan Boldin and will be more effective even if Smith and Rice don't blow up, but we're looking at shades of the 2011 opener if they do.
Then you have the fact that the offense probably won't be able to get going with Charlie Batch behind center. I'm guessing he'll be on a short leash, but Brian Hoyer and Byron Leftwich aren't exactly attractive alternatives. Baltimore's defense has been surprisingly soft against the run this season, but they were able to hold Jonathan Dwyer and Rashard Mendenhall to 88 yards on 23 attempts. The Steelers had 134 yards total, but 31 of that came on Leftwich's touchdown run, which skews the average.
In order to have a shot at winning this game, they need to keep it low scoring and ugly like the last game. In order to do that, they need to run the ball effectively and take some of the pressure off Batch. Unfortunately, Batch doesn't scare anyone, especially the hated Ravens. They'll stack 15 guys in the box and make Batch beat them. I don't think there's a lot of people that believe he can beat them, possibly not even Batch himself.
While the logical center of my brain knows that there's a very low statistical probability of them committing eight turnovers again, I can't convince the rest of my brain that it's most likely not going to happen. I can seriously see six or seven turnovers, even if they don't get to eight. If they lose the turnover battle in a big way, they're going to lose big.
There are a lot of factors that point to this game ending in a blowout and some serious tears, but I don't think it's going to be that lopsided. Yes, Charlie Batch is a shadow of his former self and yes, the hated Ravens still have a lot of talent on defense. Yes, Flacco is lights out at home, but he's also struggled against the Steelers throughout his career, regardless of where the game's being played. They don't have Ben Roethisberger -- finally, officially ruled out today -- or LaMarr Woodley, but they get Antonio Brown back and Troy Polamalu is apparently going to play a significant role on defense.
With Brown back, that takes the defensive focus away from Mike Wallace and allows Heath and Emmanuel Sanders more room to roam. Sure, Batch is still throwing them the ball, but putting Brown back in the mix makes this a better offense. Batch has a faster delivery than Leftwich, so that means they can mix in some quick screens and make Baltimore think twice about loading up the line of scrimmage and leaving Wallace, Sanders, and Brown free to roam after the catch. One missed tackle could mean a huge play.
If they get something out of the passing game, that opens things up for the running game, they don't turn the ball over, and Troy does something spectacular on defense, then maybe there's a chance for victory. But... I highly doubt that all those things happen on Sunday.
They'll accomplish enough of those objectives to keep the game from being a laugher, but I think they ultimately fall short.
Prediction:
Hated Ravens 23, Steelers 13
Showing posts with label antonio brown. Show all posts
Showing posts with label antonio brown. Show all posts
Friday, November 30, 2012
Thursday, September 06, 2012
Welcome Back, Peyton: Steelers at Broncos Preview
I'm actually leaving my house in about an hour to fly to Denver, so I feel as though the Steelers will have a little extra home field advantage in this one. I also feel as though that won't make any difference.
I can't get past the fact that these are, essentially, the same two teams that met in January. Same venue, same home field advantage for the Broncos, pretty much the same everything. But, the edge goes for Denver because they swapped out Football Jesus for one of the greatest quarterbacks ever to play the game. I am well aware of the fact that Peyton Manning is not the same quarterback he once was and that no one -- not even Peyton or his doctors -- can say for sure how his neck will react once he starts getting hit for real. Assuming that Manning is about 80%, that makes him about 300% better than Tim Tebow, and that makes the Broncos a much better team than they were in the Wild Card round of last year's playoffs.
So, that's one thing. The other thing is that Ryan Clark will not be available for this game. I think that his absence was a key contributor to the pass defense's collapse in January. Yes, Dick LeBeau is really smart and really good at his job and will find ways to patch the holes Denver found in his scheme in the last game. But, you can't overlook the fact that Ryan Mundy backs up Ryan Clark for a reason: It's not that Mundy is a bad player, he's just not as good as Ryan Clark. I don't think that Clark is an all-star, but he does do an exceptional job of playing the "hero" and covering up for all Troy's freelancing. Without him there to watch Troy's back, either Polamalu doesn't do as much freelancing or there's no one there to cover for him when he does. Either way, it hurts the defense as a whole.
Finally, you have the mile-high effect. These are highly trained athletes and most of them are in great physical condition. The issue is that they're not in mile-high condition just yet and the Broncos have the advantage of having practiced and trained at a higher altitude all spring and summer. Historically, Denver enjoys a home field advantage early in the season simply because they're used to the conditions and their opponents aren't. I just have a feeling that Casey Hampton, for one, will be gassed midway through the second quarter, especially considering he didn't have training camp to play himself back into shape. Since these are two teams that played a tight game that was decided in overtime eight months ago, every little edge that Broncos have is significant, and I feel that this is a big edge for them.
I don't think there's anything actually wrong with the Steelers on offense or defense, I just don't think that they're good enough to overcome everything they'll need to overcome to win this game. I think that, overall, they'll have a good showing this season and finish between 9-7 and 11-5, depending on how they do against the hated Ravens. Denver's defense is too good, they have just enough of an edge on offense with Clark on the sidelines, and they have the altitude on their side.
I think they also have the psychological edge in this game. Sure, the Steelers are made that they got beat in such dramatic fashion last season and the defense will be fired up, trying to prove that the playoff collapse was a fluke. But, the Broncos have a nationally televised prime time game, a shiny, new, big name quarterback to show off, and they're just as motivated to show that their playoff win wasn't a fluke as the Steelers are to prove that their loss was a fluke, if not more motivated.
Mike Wallace is going to be fine. He's still fast enough and scary enough to keep defenses honest. He doesn't need to know the offense to know how to run in a straight line. He just needs to be there. He occupies two guys and allows Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown and Heath Miller to draw single coverage and get better match-ups. Roethlisberger may not look his way that often -- unless he sees single coverage -- but I think Wallace is more than capable of making some plays when Roethlisberger does call his number. I also wouldn't be surprised if they got Wallace involved early by throwing him some quick slants and screen passes and seeing what he can do, as well as taking a shot with him deep even if it's not there.
What worries me is that the Broncos have an exceptional front seven and a solid defense overall. They feel like they can pressure anyone and they will blitz with regularity. The Steeler offensive line is still in flux and I'm not sure they're up to the task of blocking all these guys. It could get ugly.
The x-factor for Denver is Manning. If LaMarr Woodley decapitates him on the first series, the Broncos are sunk, at least for this game. We also don't know how much arm strength he's been able to build back up after having basically no arm strength following the 2010 season. He also hasn't taken a real hit in 18 months. It'll be interesting to see how he reacts to the first one.
I know I've been all over Chris Rainey all pre-season, but he's the x-factor in this one. Denver has a slight edge on offense and defense, so special teams needs to step it up. Special teams is basically just Rainey now that Brown is no longer returning punts. If he can get a big return -- not even necessarily a touchdown, just a long return that puts the Steelers in a position to score -- they can win this game. Do I think he'll do that? I have no idea, but I don't think it'll happen.
Ultimately, they don't have enough to win this one without a little luck and a little help. It's not going to be a blowout, but I don't think they're going to pull this one out.
Prediction:
Broncos 20, Steelers 13
I can't get past the fact that these are, essentially, the same two teams that met in January. Same venue, same home field advantage for the Broncos, pretty much the same everything. But, the edge goes for Denver because they swapped out Football Jesus for one of the greatest quarterbacks ever to play the game. I am well aware of the fact that Peyton Manning is not the same quarterback he once was and that no one -- not even Peyton or his doctors -- can say for sure how his neck will react once he starts getting hit for real. Assuming that Manning is about 80%, that makes him about 300% better than Tim Tebow, and that makes the Broncos a much better team than they were in the Wild Card round of last year's playoffs.
So, that's one thing. The other thing is that Ryan Clark will not be available for this game. I think that his absence was a key contributor to the pass defense's collapse in January. Yes, Dick LeBeau is really smart and really good at his job and will find ways to patch the holes Denver found in his scheme in the last game. But, you can't overlook the fact that Ryan Mundy backs up Ryan Clark for a reason: It's not that Mundy is a bad player, he's just not as good as Ryan Clark. I don't think that Clark is an all-star, but he does do an exceptional job of playing the "hero" and covering up for all Troy's freelancing. Without him there to watch Troy's back, either Polamalu doesn't do as much freelancing or there's no one there to cover for him when he does. Either way, it hurts the defense as a whole.
Finally, you have the mile-high effect. These are highly trained athletes and most of them are in great physical condition. The issue is that they're not in mile-high condition just yet and the Broncos have the advantage of having practiced and trained at a higher altitude all spring and summer. Historically, Denver enjoys a home field advantage early in the season simply because they're used to the conditions and their opponents aren't. I just have a feeling that Casey Hampton, for one, will be gassed midway through the second quarter, especially considering he didn't have training camp to play himself back into shape. Since these are two teams that played a tight game that was decided in overtime eight months ago, every little edge that Broncos have is significant, and I feel that this is a big edge for them.
I don't think there's anything actually wrong with the Steelers on offense or defense, I just don't think that they're good enough to overcome everything they'll need to overcome to win this game. I think that, overall, they'll have a good showing this season and finish between 9-7 and 11-5, depending on how they do against the hated Ravens. Denver's defense is too good, they have just enough of an edge on offense with Clark on the sidelines, and they have the altitude on their side.
I think they also have the psychological edge in this game. Sure, the Steelers are made that they got beat in such dramatic fashion last season and the defense will be fired up, trying to prove that the playoff collapse was a fluke. But, the Broncos have a nationally televised prime time game, a shiny, new, big name quarterback to show off, and they're just as motivated to show that their playoff win wasn't a fluke as the Steelers are to prove that their loss was a fluke, if not more motivated.
Mike Wallace is going to be fine. He's still fast enough and scary enough to keep defenses honest. He doesn't need to know the offense to know how to run in a straight line. He just needs to be there. He occupies two guys and allows Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown and Heath Miller to draw single coverage and get better match-ups. Roethlisberger may not look his way that often -- unless he sees single coverage -- but I think Wallace is more than capable of making some plays when Roethlisberger does call his number. I also wouldn't be surprised if they got Wallace involved early by throwing him some quick slants and screen passes and seeing what he can do, as well as taking a shot with him deep even if it's not there.
What worries me is that the Broncos have an exceptional front seven and a solid defense overall. They feel like they can pressure anyone and they will blitz with regularity. The Steeler offensive line is still in flux and I'm not sure they're up to the task of blocking all these guys. It could get ugly.
The x-factor for Denver is Manning. If LaMarr Woodley decapitates him on the first series, the Broncos are sunk, at least for this game. We also don't know how much arm strength he's been able to build back up after having basically no arm strength following the 2010 season. He also hasn't taken a real hit in 18 months. It'll be interesting to see how he reacts to the first one.
I know I've been all over Chris Rainey all pre-season, but he's the x-factor in this one. Denver has a slight edge on offense and defense, so special teams needs to step it up. Special teams is basically just Rainey now that Brown is no longer returning punts. If he can get a big return -- not even necessarily a touchdown, just a long return that puts the Steelers in a position to score -- they can win this game. Do I think he'll do that? I have no idea, but I don't think it'll happen.
Ultimately, they don't have enough to win this one without a little luck and a little help. It's not going to be a blowout, but I don't think they're going to pull this one out.
Prediction:
Broncos 20, Steelers 13
Saturday, November 12, 2011
Defending the Bungles: Steelers at Bengals Preview
The Cincinnati Bengals are 6-2 on the season and they're in first place in the AFC North. That was weird to type. This is a team that people picked to finish anywhere between 1-15 and 4-12 before the season started. The fact that they're 6-2 and in first place has led a number of people to try to come up with reasons as to why this is possible. They've been lucky, they haven't played anyone, they're not ready to step up against elite competition.
Well, they don't make the schedule. They just play the games that are on the schedule. The one time they played against elite competition, the 49ers needed to rally late to beat them. Sure, four of their wins are against Seattle, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and Tennessee, but four of the Steelers' wins are against those teams. Against elite competition, the Steelers are 1-3, with a win against the Patriots, two losses to the hated Ravens, and a loss to Houston. It could be that it's the Steelers that aren't ready for prime time.
This season has played out in a very similar manner to 2009 for Cincinnati. They're coming off a bad season. Everyone's talking about Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Everyone thinks the Steelers -- coming off a Super Bowl appearance -- will roll an overrated Bengals team that isn't ready to win this game. Well, I've learned something from the 2009 season and certainly won't be underestimating the Bengals like I did then. Actually, twice.
Cincinnati is a solid, tough team with a solid, tough defense. They're not explosive on offense, but they're efficient. Rookie Andy Dalton has been impressive thus far and is 4-1 on the road. He hasn't gotten rattled when teams have blitzed him and he isn't acting like a rookie quarterback. Dick LeBeau loves to face rookie quarterbacks and he's got an exceptionally strong track record against them, but I think that Dalton will be able to hold his own on Sunday.
Ordinarily, this would be a much bigger game for the Bengals than the Steelers. Cincinnati has been, in their eyes, disrespected. They've heard all the talk that they're overrated, they're lucky, and that they haven't beat anyone. They know that the best way to quiet all their detractors is to beat the Steelers on Sunday. They're at home, it's a division game, and they will be very intense and highly motivated. But, the Steelers suffered an emotional loss to Baltimore on Sunday night and all their guys are angry and determined. Throw in the fact that there may be more Steeler fans at the game than Bengal fans and that levels the intensity playing field.
This game will come down to who makes the plays they need to make when they need to make them. When the Steelers get in the red zone, they need to close the deal. When Cincinnati faces third down, the defense needs to get off the field. I'm past the point of thinking that the Steelers will suddenly start forcing turnovers. If they're going to end the season with seven or eight forced turnovers, then they're going to need to get off the field on third down in order to survive.
Dalton is playing beyond his years, so just blitzing the hell out of him isn't going to get the job done. The Steelers need to get pressure with four guys and vary their coverage schemes in the secondary. This is not an explosive offense, so the defenders need to play sound fundamental football. They need to wrap up on tackles, not take bad angles, and always be in position. This is an efficient offense, but it's a young offense. If the Steelers force them to plod their way down the field and play a perfect game, then someone somewhere is going to screw up. It will be a battle of wills and the Steelers can't be the first ones to flinch.
On defense, Cincinnati has a good front seven that gets consistent pressure, but isn't as ferocious or relentless as the front seven for the hated Ravens. If the pass blocking holds up and the front five play as well as they've played in recent weeks, then Ben Roethlisberger should have enough time to throw. That's important, because he's going to need to take some shots deep. Bengals cornerbacks Leon Hal and Nate Clements are both great players and they're accomplished man-to-man defenders. But, given the talent levels of Antonio Brown and Mike Wallace and the fact that the rules are set up to favor the offense, neither Clements nor Hall can cover their guys one-on-one deep. The Bengals safeties are a liability. When this pass defense has gotten beat, it's gotten beat deep. Roethlisberger's first read needs to be to the deep man and he needs to throw the ball long early and often. Cincinnati doesn't have the kind of offense that can overcome a big deficit, so a big, early lead will be the best way to take some of the wind out of the sails of the home team and the home crowd.
The Bengals are second in the league in run defense and allow a league best 3.3 yards per carry. I don't think the Steelers will be able to run on them, but they have to try and they have to run the ball efficiently. If they're purposefully one-dimensional like they were against the Patriots, then they have a chance to move the ball and score some points. If Cincinnati completely shuts the run game down and the Steelers abandon the run for the pass, it's going to be a long day for Roethlisberger. He also probably won't have time in the pocket to wait for the deep receiver to break free. That's a lethal combination right there, so they need to take steps to ensure it doesn't play out that way.
Point blank, the Steelers are a more talented team than the Bengals. They have more weapons on offense, more game changers on defense, a better quarterback, and a dangerous returner in Antonio Brown. But, games are not won and lost on talent alone. Cincinnati has been winning games because of their patience, their discipline, and their ability to make timely plays. If they keep the game tight and make more of those plays than the Steelers, they will win this game.
It's going to be a fight. It's not going to be easy. It's going to take a tremendous effort from the Steelers in all phases of the game. I think they're up for the challenge.
Prediction:
Steelers 24, Bengals 20
Well, they don't make the schedule. They just play the games that are on the schedule. The one time they played against elite competition, the 49ers needed to rally late to beat them. Sure, four of their wins are against Seattle, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and Tennessee, but four of the Steelers' wins are against those teams. Against elite competition, the Steelers are 1-3, with a win against the Patriots, two losses to the hated Ravens, and a loss to Houston. It could be that it's the Steelers that aren't ready for prime time.
This season has played out in a very similar manner to 2009 for Cincinnati. They're coming off a bad season. Everyone's talking about Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Everyone thinks the Steelers -- coming off a Super Bowl appearance -- will roll an overrated Bengals team that isn't ready to win this game. Well, I've learned something from the 2009 season and certainly won't be underestimating the Bengals like I did then. Actually, twice.
Cincinnati is a solid, tough team with a solid, tough defense. They're not explosive on offense, but they're efficient. Rookie Andy Dalton has been impressive thus far and is 4-1 on the road. He hasn't gotten rattled when teams have blitzed him and he isn't acting like a rookie quarterback. Dick LeBeau loves to face rookie quarterbacks and he's got an exceptionally strong track record against them, but I think that Dalton will be able to hold his own on Sunday.
Ordinarily, this would be a much bigger game for the Bengals than the Steelers. Cincinnati has been, in their eyes, disrespected. They've heard all the talk that they're overrated, they're lucky, and that they haven't beat anyone. They know that the best way to quiet all their detractors is to beat the Steelers on Sunday. They're at home, it's a division game, and they will be very intense and highly motivated. But, the Steelers suffered an emotional loss to Baltimore on Sunday night and all their guys are angry and determined. Throw in the fact that there may be more Steeler fans at the game than Bengal fans and that levels the intensity playing field.
This game will come down to who makes the plays they need to make when they need to make them. When the Steelers get in the red zone, they need to close the deal. When Cincinnati faces third down, the defense needs to get off the field. I'm past the point of thinking that the Steelers will suddenly start forcing turnovers. If they're going to end the season with seven or eight forced turnovers, then they're going to need to get off the field on third down in order to survive.
Dalton is playing beyond his years, so just blitzing the hell out of him isn't going to get the job done. The Steelers need to get pressure with four guys and vary their coverage schemes in the secondary. This is not an explosive offense, so the defenders need to play sound fundamental football. They need to wrap up on tackles, not take bad angles, and always be in position. This is an efficient offense, but it's a young offense. If the Steelers force them to plod their way down the field and play a perfect game, then someone somewhere is going to screw up. It will be a battle of wills and the Steelers can't be the first ones to flinch.
On defense, Cincinnati has a good front seven that gets consistent pressure, but isn't as ferocious or relentless as the front seven for the hated Ravens. If the pass blocking holds up and the front five play as well as they've played in recent weeks, then Ben Roethlisberger should have enough time to throw. That's important, because he's going to need to take some shots deep. Bengals cornerbacks Leon Hal and Nate Clements are both great players and they're accomplished man-to-man defenders. But, given the talent levels of Antonio Brown and Mike Wallace and the fact that the rules are set up to favor the offense, neither Clements nor Hall can cover their guys one-on-one deep. The Bengals safeties are a liability. When this pass defense has gotten beat, it's gotten beat deep. Roethlisberger's first read needs to be to the deep man and he needs to throw the ball long early and often. Cincinnati doesn't have the kind of offense that can overcome a big deficit, so a big, early lead will be the best way to take some of the wind out of the sails of the home team and the home crowd.
The Bengals are second in the league in run defense and allow a league best 3.3 yards per carry. I don't think the Steelers will be able to run on them, but they have to try and they have to run the ball efficiently. If they're purposefully one-dimensional like they were against the Patriots, then they have a chance to move the ball and score some points. If Cincinnati completely shuts the run game down and the Steelers abandon the run for the pass, it's going to be a long day for Roethlisberger. He also probably won't have time in the pocket to wait for the deep receiver to break free. That's a lethal combination right there, so they need to take steps to ensure it doesn't play out that way.
Point blank, the Steelers are a more talented team than the Bengals. They have more weapons on offense, more game changers on defense, a better quarterback, and a dangerous returner in Antonio Brown. But, games are not won and lost on talent alone. Cincinnati has been winning games because of their patience, their discipline, and their ability to make timely plays. If they keep the game tight and make more of those plays than the Steelers, they will win this game.
It's going to be a fight. It's not going to be easy. It's going to take a tremendous effort from the Steelers in all phases of the game. I think they're up for the challenge.
Prediction:
Steelers 24, Bengals 20
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