I'm actually leaving my house in about an hour to fly to Denver, so I feel as though the Steelers will have a little extra home field advantage in this one. I also feel as though that won't make any difference.
I can't get past the fact that these are, essentially, the same two teams that met in January. Same venue, same home field advantage for the Broncos, pretty much the same everything. But, the edge goes for Denver because they swapped out Football Jesus for one of the greatest quarterbacks ever to play the game. I am well aware of the fact that Peyton Manning is not the same quarterback he once was and that no one -- not even Peyton or his doctors -- can say for sure how his neck will react once he starts getting hit for real. Assuming that Manning is about 80%, that makes him about 300% better than Tim Tebow, and that makes the Broncos a much better team than they were in the Wild Card round of last year's playoffs.
So, that's one thing. The other thing is that Ryan Clark will not be available for this game. I think that his absence was a key contributor to the pass defense's collapse in January. Yes, Dick LeBeau is really smart and really good at his job and will find ways to patch the holes Denver found in his scheme in the last game. But, you can't overlook the fact that Ryan Mundy backs up Ryan Clark for a reason: It's not that Mundy is a bad player, he's just not as good as Ryan Clark. I don't think that Clark is an all-star, but he does do an exceptional job of playing the "hero" and covering up for all Troy's freelancing. Without him there to watch Troy's back, either Polamalu doesn't do as much freelancing or there's no one there to cover for him when he does. Either way, it hurts the defense as a whole.
Finally, you have the mile-high effect. These are highly trained athletes and most of them are in great physical condition. The issue is that they're not in mile-high condition just yet and the Broncos have the advantage of having practiced and trained at a higher altitude all spring and summer. Historically, Denver enjoys a home field advantage early in the season simply because they're used to the conditions and their opponents aren't. I just have a feeling that Casey Hampton, for one, will be gassed midway through the second quarter, especially considering he didn't have training camp to play himself back into shape. Since these are two teams that played a tight game that was decided in overtime eight months ago, every little edge that Broncos have is significant, and I feel that this is a big edge for them.
I don't think there's anything actually wrong with the Steelers on offense or defense, I just don't think that they're good enough to overcome everything they'll need to overcome to win this game. I think that, overall, they'll have a good showing this season and finish between 9-7 and 11-5, depending on how they do against the hated Ravens. Denver's defense is too good, they have just enough of an edge on offense with Clark on the sidelines, and they have the altitude on their side.
I think they also have the psychological edge in this game. Sure, the Steelers are made that they got beat in such dramatic fashion last season and the defense will be fired up, trying to prove that the playoff collapse was a fluke. But, the Broncos have a nationally televised prime time game, a shiny, new, big name quarterback to show off, and they're just as motivated to show that their playoff win wasn't a fluke as the Steelers are to prove that their loss was a fluke, if not more motivated.
Mike Wallace is going to be fine. He's still fast enough and scary enough to keep defenses honest. He doesn't need to know the offense to know how to run in a straight line. He just needs to be there. He occupies two guys and allows Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown and Heath Miller to draw single coverage and get better match-ups. Roethlisberger may not look his way that often -- unless he sees single coverage -- but I think Wallace is more than capable of making some plays when Roethlisberger does call his number. I also wouldn't be surprised if they got Wallace involved early by throwing him some quick slants and screen passes and seeing what he can do, as well as taking a shot with him deep even if it's not there.
What worries me is that the Broncos have an exceptional front seven and a solid defense overall. They feel like they can pressure anyone and they will blitz with regularity. The Steeler offensive line is still in flux and I'm not sure they're up to the task of blocking all these guys. It could get ugly.
The x-factor for Denver is Manning. If LaMarr Woodley decapitates him on the first series, the Broncos are sunk, at least for this game. We also don't know how much arm strength he's been able to build back up after having basically no arm strength following the 2010 season. He also hasn't taken a real hit in 18 months. It'll be interesting to see how he reacts to the first one.
I know I've been all over Chris Rainey all pre-season, but he's the x-factor in this one. Denver has a slight edge on offense and defense, so special teams needs to step it up. Special teams is basically just Rainey now that Brown is no longer returning punts. If he can get a big return -- not even necessarily a touchdown, just a long return that puts the Steelers in a position to score -- they can win this game. Do I think he'll do that? I have no idea, but I don't think it'll happen.
Ultimately, they don't have enough to win this one without a little luck and a little help. It's not going to be a blowout, but I don't think they're going to pull this one out.
Prediction:
Broncos 20, Steelers 13
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