I started out Wild Card weekend with a bang, going 4-0 ATS and O/U. Then I came back to Earth, but that was more the fault of those stupid, stupid New York Giants and their stupid, stupid victory than a case of me getting Tebowed. I finished 5-3, which puts me well on my way towards winning the AFC West securing a home playoff game.
On to the picks. Home team in CAPS...
SAN FRANCISCO (+3.5) over NOLA:
I think the 49ers will win this game outright (with a moneyline of +173, no less), but that last half point is really enticing. If the 49ers lose, I think they only lose by a field goal. Take the Under, because the O/U for this game is pretty ridiculous at 47. It's gone down at least a point since it opened, which means that lots of people have been taking the Under, so Vegas is trying to find a number that will convince people to bet the Over. I remain unconvinced. The total needs to drop to 43 for me to take the Over.
This goes beyond the fact that I don't trust the Saints offense outdoors. I also don't trust them on the road, where they went 5-3. San Francisco went 7-1 at home. In their three losses, they lost by 3, 2, and 10 points. They don't get blown out. They don't give up a lot of points. They play close, low scoring games. They played in only three games this season where they would've topped the Over for this game. One of those games was their 48-3 ba-thwumping of Tampa, one of them was a 33-17 victory over the Seahawks where they scored two touchdowns on special teams, the last was the season finale against the Rams, when they had already clinched a bye and let up on defense after taking a 34-14 lead.
The 49ers have the pass rushing talent up front to pressure Brees with four guys and the talent in the back seven to hang with the Saints receivers. Their run defense was ranked #1 in the league, allowing an average of only 77.3 yards per game and only two rushing touchdowns all season (both of which came in the meaningless season finale).
They're better than people think, they play well enough on defense to contain the potent New Orleans offense, and the Saints lose just enough off their fastball on the road and outdoors that the 49ers win a tight, low scoring game.
NEW ENGLAND (-13.5) over Denver:
Yes, I know. I'm totally going to get Tebowed on this one.
These two teams met in Week 15 and the Patriots won 41-23. That game was in Denver. Total points in that game (64) were well above the O/U for this game (50). New England would also have covered this spread.
Denver's a hot team and I'm not trying to undermine what they did to the Steelers (a game which, by the way, would also have covered the Over at 52 points). They're also a streaky team. When they're feeling confident, they're pretty much unstoppable. When they're feeling down, they only manage a field goal at home against the Chiefs. They have every reason to feel confident right now, but I think they've gone past confident and have crossed over into territory that is much, much more dangerous.
Let me explain.
The week before the Wild Card round, I followed the Broncos on Twitter because I wanted to catch news that I might not get somewhere else. I forgot to unfollow them after the loss. On Tuesday, they posted a bunch of quotes from interviews with players. The quotes were regarding that Week 15 loss to the Patriots. When I read the quotes, I hadn't looked up the score, I just knew New England won. From the quotes -- things like, "we just needed to make a couple more plays" and "we missed a couple of opportunities" -- I assumed that they lost by a field goal or a touchdown. The quotes I read weren't even close to being indicative of an 18 point home loss. They've gone past confident and they're in a much, much more dangerous place. They're delusional. Since they were able to play their game their way against the NFL's best defense at home last week, the assumption is that they'll put everything together again and play their game their way on the road next week. The Steelers have the #1 defense, the Patriots have the #31 defense. Easy peasy, lemon squeezy.
The problem is that Bill Belichick has made a career out of making sure that teams don't get to play their game their way. This game is in Foxborough. The Patriots tend to start games out fast. If they jump out to a 14-0 lead at home against this Broncos team, it's going to be a shock to the system, like a six year old watching Belichick curb stomp the Easter Bunny.
I think the Patriots jump out to a big early lead, the Broncos re-group at halftime, and they come out fighting in the second half. I don't think they'll get anywhere close to coming back, but they've got way too much potential on offense to not score a bunch of points against a crappy New England defense. I think Champ Bailey can handle Wes Welker, but Heath Miller gouged the Broncos pretty bad last week. Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are way better receivers and are way more involved in the Patriots offense than Miller is for the Steelers.
Denver allowed 23 points to a banged up Steelers offense that had half a quarterback and three backup offensive linemen. If Isaac Redman can rush for 7.1 yards per carry and 121 total yards behind that offensive line, then some combination of BenJarvis Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead, and Stevan Ridley will be able to do just as good behind a very capable, very healthy Patriots offensive line.
Houston (+9) over BALTIMORE:
I think that the hated Ravens will win this game, but I don't think they'll cover. The Texans showed last week that they're a good team and they deserve to be here. Most of the guys on that team had never played in a playoff game before. They all realized how great it was to win in the postseason and they're bound and determined not to found out how bad it sucks to lose.
If Houston can't run the ball, they're dead meat. Their offensive line knows this. In order to run the ball successfully, you need to win at the point of attack. Winning at the point of attack is equal parts talent, scheme, and determination. The hated Ravens have a stout front seven and defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano has brought back the swagger and intimidation factor to this unit. Houston has one of the best lines in the league and their offensive line coach has brought his charges up from the dredges to the elite the last six seasons. Scheme and talent is a wash. Determination is the X factor.
Houston's offensive line knows that the season is riding on them. Baltimore's front seven knows that, if they're able to stop the run, they can tee off on TJ Yates and win this game easily. I'd say the Texans offensive line has more motivation and they'll be more determined.
If Houston can run the ball, they'll be able to score points. I think the hated Ravens can score enough to win, even against a tough Texans defense. When the lines opened, the Over/Under was 38.5. It has since moved down to 36. I was willing to take the Over at 38.5, so I'm delighted to take it at 36. This won't be a shootout, but it doesn't need to be. Everyone was predicting a low scoring game in Denver (including me) and look how that turned out.
NY Giants (+8) over PACKERS:
Again, I think the Packers win, but I don't think they win by more than a touchdown. The last time these two teams met, the score was 38-35, which is probably why the Over/Under is 52.5 and hasn't moved since it opened. These are two proud defenses that don't want to get kicked around like that again. They're also two great offenses, but I think the defenses will step up to keep the score from getting too crazy.
Kickoff temperatures are going to be in the low teens. The last time these two teams faced a situation like this -- cold playoff game in Green Bay in 2007 -- the Giants won 20-17 in overtime. I'm thinking something similar, with the Packers winning by a touchdown.
The X factor here is Aaron Rodgers. He's well rested and wants to shine in his first home playoff game. The crowd will be behind him and his teammates will be fired up. If they get on a roll, it could be Packers and the Over, but I don't think that happens.
Showing posts with label tim tebow. Show all posts
Showing posts with label tim tebow. Show all posts
Friday, January 13, 2012
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Good News and Bad News: Steelers at Broncos
Only piece of Good News: They don't have to play in the Divisional Round. If they needed to travel to Foxborough to play the Patriots, there would be, like, 15 guys on the active roster. According to Tomlin's press conference on Monday, pretty much everyone suffered a catastrophic injury on Sunday and they would've only dressed two offensive linemen against New England. That's an exaggeration, but not much of one.
If there's one other silver lining, I was impressed by how the offense still hung in there and managed to put up 23 points. They were missing their starting tailback, they were down three offensive linemen, Ben Roethlisberger was at about 50 percent capacity on his banged up ankle, and they were stuck in a situation where they needed to throw the ball and the defense knew it.
Ike Taylor had the worst game of his professional career. Dick LeBeau didn't adjust from man coverage to zone when it became obvious in the second quarter that the Steelers corners couldn't handle the Denver receivers in man coverage. It could be that Ryan Clark was the X factor. Without him to cover for Troy's freelancing, there were big holes in the back end. But, I'm not ready to say that Taylor sucks because of one game. I think LeBeau would come to my house and beat me up if I even hinted at saying something like that about him and I would deserve it. William Gay leaves a lot to be desired, but he's a better option than Bryant McFadden or Curtis Brown. Troy did a great job on run defense, but he was too committed to the line of scrimmage, even after Tebow started completing long passes past overwhelmed Steelers cornerbacks. Do I think they should cut him? I do not, that would be dumb.
The defensive line was all backups and Jason Worilds was in for Lamarr Woodley for most of the game. Without pressure from the front seven -- some more blitzing would have been nice -- the secondary was left shorthanded and you saw the results. Given that this defense is going to undergo a major overhaul in the offseason due to salary cap issues, we may have had a glimpse into the future. That's really bad news.
Ike Redman actually averaged 7.0 yards a carry. Mike Wallace had a nice touchdown run. Heath Miller, Emmanuel Sanders, and Jerricho Cotchery chipped in. Roethlisberger did the best he could on one leg. The interception was inexcusable, but, like everyone else on offense, you could at least claim that he tried hard and didn't give up.
This was a maximum effort game by the Steelers on both sides of the ball, just not maximum focus. Wallace had a couple of critical drops and his head definitely wasn't in the game -- he hasn't been on the same page with Roethlisberger since Ben's ankle injury. Mundy and Troy didn't cover well on deep passes. Taylor often forgot that he was supposed to be covering Thomas. They didn't switch up to zone just to keep the plays in front of them.
Tim Tebow averaged 15 yards an attempt and 31 yards a completion. He averaged five yards a carry. Demaryius Thomas averaged 51 yards per catch. They had some ridiculous numbers on offense. They got on a roll in the second quarter and were almost unstoppable.
That's the thing about this Broncos team: They're dangerous to opponents because they feed off momentum and confidence more than any team I've ever seen. If they get on a roll, they can beat anybody, including the Patriots and the Packers. The way they're set up on offense, if they can hit on some big plays in the passing game against teams that have trouble defending the pass (Patriots are 31st against the pass, Green Bay is 32nd), then they open up the rest of the offense and can mix in runs from Tebow and the other members of their top-rated rushing attack to keep a defense off balance and possess the football.
Denver is also a danger to themselves because they feed off momentum and confidence more than any team I've ever seen. If things aren't clicking for them early and the Patriots/Packers/hated Ravens jump out to a big lead, then the Broncos will start to lose confidence and the wheels will start to come off. They may get hot late, but by then it will be too late. If the Steelers had scored touchdowns on those two first quarter possessions, the game would have unfolded much differently. I'm not saying the Broncos got lucky and the Steelers deserved to win. Denver played well and they played better than the Steelers. They deserved to win, the Steelers deserved to lose. I'm saying that controlling momentum and keeping the Broncos down is the key to victory. The Steelers didn't do that, they didn't capitalize on the opportunities they had early, and they paid the price. If future opponents do the same thing this postseason, then Denver has a great shot at some upsets.
But, the bad news for the Broncos is that the Packers, Patriots, and hated Ravens are all much better in the red zone than the Steelers. They also force more turnovers on defense. That gives those teams the ability to put Denver away early and keep them out of the game late. The Steelers didn't have that ability against anyone this season, which is one of the reasons why they'll have the same view of the games as the rest of us (in a roundabout way, I mean. I'm sure they have nicer TVs and more attractive people in their living rooms.)
And, hey, I say this every time the Steelers fall short of winning the Super Bowl: They've been there eight times, they've won six, and they've had only nine losing seasons since 1970. That's a damn impressive run and we, as Steeler fans, should appreciate it. And not be spoiled by it.
I was talking to a friend of mine yesterday and he had a good point. The team has been on quite a run since Ben Roethlisberger took over as the starting quarterback (and before that, but the Super Bowl appearances and AFC Championship Game appearances really started to pile up starting in 2004). Steeler fans have been spoiled by that run. Maybe it's time for a bad run, so that we can learn to appreciate success again instead of just expecting it and turning up our noses at it when it just isn't successful enough. I'm not saying I want the Steelers to suck. I'm saying that it may be the best thing for us as fans, at least in the long term.
As long as we still beat Baltimore. And the Patriots.
If there's one other silver lining, I was impressed by how the offense still hung in there and managed to put up 23 points. They were missing their starting tailback, they were down three offensive linemen, Ben Roethlisberger was at about 50 percent capacity on his banged up ankle, and they were stuck in a situation where they needed to throw the ball and the defense knew it.
Ike Taylor had the worst game of his professional career. Dick LeBeau didn't adjust from man coverage to zone when it became obvious in the second quarter that the Steelers corners couldn't handle the Denver receivers in man coverage. It could be that Ryan Clark was the X factor. Without him to cover for Troy's freelancing, there were big holes in the back end. But, I'm not ready to say that Taylor sucks because of one game. I think LeBeau would come to my house and beat me up if I even hinted at saying something like that about him and I would deserve it. William Gay leaves a lot to be desired, but he's a better option than Bryant McFadden or Curtis Brown. Troy did a great job on run defense, but he was too committed to the line of scrimmage, even after Tebow started completing long passes past overwhelmed Steelers cornerbacks. Do I think they should cut him? I do not, that would be dumb.
The defensive line was all backups and Jason Worilds was in for Lamarr Woodley for most of the game. Without pressure from the front seven -- some more blitzing would have been nice -- the secondary was left shorthanded and you saw the results. Given that this defense is going to undergo a major overhaul in the offseason due to salary cap issues, we may have had a glimpse into the future. That's really bad news.
Ike Redman actually averaged 7.0 yards a carry. Mike Wallace had a nice touchdown run. Heath Miller, Emmanuel Sanders, and Jerricho Cotchery chipped in. Roethlisberger did the best he could on one leg. The interception was inexcusable, but, like everyone else on offense, you could at least claim that he tried hard and didn't give up.
This was a maximum effort game by the Steelers on both sides of the ball, just not maximum focus. Wallace had a couple of critical drops and his head definitely wasn't in the game -- he hasn't been on the same page with Roethlisberger since Ben's ankle injury. Mundy and Troy didn't cover well on deep passes. Taylor often forgot that he was supposed to be covering Thomas. They didn't switch up to zone just to keep the plays in front of them.
Tim Tebow averaged 15 yards an attempt and 31 yards a completion. He averaged five yards a carry. Demaryius Thomas averaged 51 yards per catch. They had some ridiculous numbers on offense. They got on a roll in the second quarter and were almost unstoppable.
That's the thing about this Broncos team: They're dangerous to opponents because they feed off momentum and confidence more than any team I've ever seen. If they get on a roll, they can beat anybody, including the Patriots and the Packers. The way they're set up on offense, if they can hit on some big plays in the passing game against teams that have trouble defending the pass (Patriots are 31st against the pass, Green Bay is 32nd), then they open up the rest of the offense and can mix in runs from Tebow and the other members of their top-rated rushing attack to keep a defense off balance and possess the football.
Denver is also a danger to themselves because they feed off momentum and confidence more than any team I've ever seen. If things aren't clicking for them early and the Patriots/Packers/hated Ravens jump out to a big lead, then the Broncos will start to lose confidence and the wheels will start to come off. They may get hot late, but by then it will be too late. If the Steelers had scored touchdowns on those two first quarter possessions, the game would have unfolded much differently. I'm not saying the Broncos got lucky and the Steelers deserved to win. Denver played well and they played better than the Steelers. They deserved to win, the Steelers deserved to lose. I'm saying that controlling momentum and keeping the Broncos down is the key to victory. The Steelers didn't do that, they didn't capitalize on the opportunities they had early, and they paid the price. If future opponents do the same thing this postseason, then Denver has a great shot at some upsets.
But, the bad news for the Broncos is that the Packers, Patriots, and hated Ravens are all much better in the red zone than the Steelers. They also force more turnovers on defense. That gives those teams the ability to put Denver away early and keep them out of the game late. The Steelers didn't have that ability against anyone this season, which is one of the reasons why they'll have the same view of the games as the rest of us (in a roundabout way, I mean. I'm sure they have nicer TVs and more attractive people in their living rooms.)
And, hey, I say this every time the Steelers fall short of winning the Super Bowl: They've been there eight times, they've won six, and they've had only nine losing seasons since 1970. That's a damn impressive run and we, as Steeler fans, should appreciate it. And not be spoiled by it.
I was talking to a friend of mine yesterday and he had a good point. The team has been on quite a run since Ben Roethlisberger took over as the starting quarterback (and before that, but the Super Bowl appearances and AFC Championship Game appearances really started to pile up starting in 2004). Steeler fans have been spoiled by that run. Maybe it's time for a bad run, so that we can learn to appreciate success again instead of just expecting it and turning up our noses at it when it just isn't successful enough. I'm not saying I want the Steelers to suck. I'm saying that it may be the best thing for us as fans, at least in the long term.
As long as we still beat Baltimore. And the Patriots.
Friday, January 06, 2012
Tebowlicious: Steelers at Broncos Preview:
I am becoming more and more worried and pessimistic about this game as the days go by. When I heard that the Broncos won the AFC West by losing, I was ecstatic. It meant that the Steelers would have a chance to dismantle and humiliate Football Jesus and I'm all about the schadenfreude (holy crap, schadenfreude was in the spell check dictionary).
I wasn't overly concerned about the fact that Rashard Mendenhall got placed on IR and I was convinced that Ben Roethlisberger's ankle would only improve, so long as he could continue to just walk it off and/or rub some dirt in it.
Now that we're about 48 hours from kickoff, I'm more than a little nervous, since Ryan Clark can't play, Pouncey has been ruled out, Roethlisberger suffered a setback in the Cleveland game (still listed as probable, though), Polamalu and Harrison haven't practiced this week (somehow listed as probable), Mewelde Moore is out, and Keisel missed two practices this week. My guess is that, since this is the playoffs, everyone that hasn't been ruled out is going to play. But, how well will they play in the thin air at Mile High Stadium Presented by Sports Authority? How limited will they be?
Also, running backs coach Kirby Wilson was badly burned when a fire broke out in his kitchen. At least Lamarr Woodley looks like he's ready to go, so that's a silver lining.
When I found out the Steelers were going to be playing in Denver, I was looking forward to a pretty easy win. Then I remembered that the offense seems to have peaked at 13 points a game ever since Roethlisberger hurt his ankle. Then I remembered that it was a road game and the Broncos play tough at home. Then everyone got hurt and guys started dropping off and becoming unavailable for the game. This morning, an assistant coach got burned in a house fire. There are a lot of bad omens surrounding this game. This game is officially making me very nervous.
Having said all that, I stand by my Wild Card prediction. This is going to be an ugly, stupid game. It will not end quickly. I will not enjoy it. Denver will cover and you should take the under (even though it dropped to 33.5), but they will not win outright.
Here's why: The Steelers have destroyed bad quarterbacks all season and Tim Tebow is a bad quarterback. It doesn't matter what stat you use: quarterback rating (72.9), QBR (30.5), or QBERT (6.385). He has only 1,729 yards passing in 11 starts, his completion percentage is atrocious (46.5%), and he's been sacked 33 times. He's also fumbled 13 times. I know that he's 7-4 and that he's money in the fourth quarter, but I also know that more accurate passers with better numbers still struggled to put up even respectable numbers against the Steeler pass defense.
The more accurate/better numbers list includes: Tavaris Jackson, Kevin Kolb, Blaine Gabbert, Curtis Painter, Colt McCoy, Seneca Wallace, Kellen Clemens (OK, that one's debatable, he may be a less gifted passer than Tebow), and Tyler Palko. Those guys combined to score 74 points on the Pittsburgh defense and 40 of those points came from Curtis Painter and Kevin Kolb.
They should be able to focus on Willis McGahee and contain him. They have the personnel in the secondary to switch off between the Cover 3 looks that Buffalo used to stop Tebow and the man coverage looks the Patriots and Chiefs used. They just need to remember to stay focused and stay on their man when they switch away from zone coverage. Tebow was able to burn the Vikings secondary for a couple of long touchdowns because the defensive backs were too focused on him and forgot to stay on their man. I can see Troy Polamalu making that mistake and Ryan Clark won't be there to cover Troy's mistakes. Then again, pretty much every quarterback in the league was able to burn the Vikings secondary this season, so maybe it just boils down to Tebow not being very good.
The point is that the Steelers shouldn't need to score much to win this game. They won't score much, either, which is why you should take the under.
Just remember: A win's a win.
Prediction:
Steelers 13, Broncos 9
I wasn't overly concerned about the fact that Rashard Mendenhall got placed on IR and I was convinced that Ben Roethlisberger's ankle would only improve, so long as he could continue to just walk it off and/or rub some dirt in it.
Now that we're about 48 hours from kickoff, I'm more than a little nervous, since Ryan Clark can't play, Pouncey has been ruled out, Roethlisberger suffered a setback in the Cleveland game (still listed as probable, though), Polamalu and Harrison haven't practiced this week (somehow listed as probable), Mewelde Moore is out, and Keisel missed two practices this week. My guess is that, since this is the playoffs, everyone that hasn't been ruled out is going to play. But, how well will they play in the thin air at Mile High Stadium Presented by Sports Authority? How limited will they be?
Also, running backs coach Kirby Wilson was badly burned when a fire broke out in his kitchen. At least Lamarr Woodley looks like he's ready to go, so that's a silver lining.
When I found out the Steelers were going to be playing in Denver, I was looking forward to a pretty easy win. Then I remembered that the offense seems to have peaked at 13 points a game ever since Roethlisberger hurt his ankle. Then I remembered that it was a road game and the Broncos play tough at home. Then everyone got hurt and guys started dropping off and becoming unavailable for the game. This morning, an assistant coach got burned in a house fire. There are a lot of bad omens surrounding this game. This game is officially making me very nervous.
Having said all that, I stand by my Wild Card prediction. This is going to be an ugly, stupid game. It will not end quickly. I will not enjoy it. Denver will cover and you should take the under (even though it dropped to 33.5), but they will not win outright.
Here's why: The Steelers have destroyed bad quarterbacks all season and Tim Tebow is a bad quarterback. It doesn't matter what stat you use: quarterback rating (72.9), QBR (30.5), or QBERT (6.385). He has only 1,729 yards passing in 11 starts, his completion percentage is atrocious (46.5%), and he's been sacked 33 times. He's also fumbled 13 times. I know that he's 7-4 and that he's money in the fourth quarter, but I also know that more accurate passers with better numbers still struggled to put up even respectable numbers against the Steeler pass defense.
The more accurate/better numbers list includes: Tavaris Jackson, Kevin Kolb, Blaine Gabbert, Curtis Painter, Colt McCoy, Seneca Wallace, Kellen Clemens (OK, that one's debatable, he may be a less gifted passer than Tebow), and Tyler Palko. Those guys combined to score 74 points on the Pittsburgh defense and 40 of those points came from Curtis Painter and Kevin Kolb.
They should be able to focus on Willis McGahee and contain him. They have the personnel in the secondary to switch off between the Cover 3 looks that Buffalo used to stop Tebow and the man coverage looks the Patriots and Chiefs used. They just need to remember to stay focused and stay on their man when they switch away from zone coverage. Tebow was able to burn the Vikings secondary for a couple of long touchdowns because the defensive backs were too focused on him and forgot to stay on their man. I can see Troy Polamalu making that mistake and Ryan Clark won't be there to cover Troy's mistakes. Then again, pretty much every quarterback in the league was able to burn the Vikings secondary this season, so maybe it just boils down to Tebow not being very good.
The point is that the Steelers shouldn't need to score much to win this game. They won't score much, either, which is why you should take the under.
Just remember: A win's a win.
Prediction:
Steelers 13, Broncos 9
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)