Ready for Primetime: Steelers at Colts Preview

I spent a great deal of time thinking about how the league must be kicking themselves for scheduling this on Sunday Night Football, but I came up short.  Let's just go ahead and continue like I came up with something and that it was hilarious.

About the time the lockout ended, I looked at the schedule and actually thought that the Steelers would stand a good chance of winning this game even if Peyton Manning wasn't trolling Europe, looking under couch cushions to find some stem cells to heal his neck.  I knew that the Colts had been taking on water for some time.  A big reason that they finished 10-6 last season and won the division was that Manning grew two extra arms and grabbed four big buckets.  He bailed them out last year and they got worse in the offseason. 

They now have a rookie at left tackle, they let their second-best offensive lineman (Kyle DeVan) and best defensive player (Clint Session) walk.  Suitable replacements were not found in free agency or the draft.  Their old guys got a year older.  Two of their big stars -- Reggie Wayne and Dwight Freeney -- are still very good players, but they're no longer the unstoppable forces that they once were.  If they match up against a guy that's either young or crappy, then they have a big game.  Freeney has a shot at big game, since he's up against Jonathan Scott, who is young and possibly crappy.  Wayne will probably draw Ike Taylor, who is neither young nor crappy, so don't start Wayne in your fantasy league if you have other options.

As a matter of fact, I was holding on to Pierre Garcon in one of my leagues so that I could start him against Bryant McFadden this week (anyone who draws McFadden has a huge game).  Then William Gay had to go and screw all that up by playing well last week, so he's starting even though McFadden is healthy.  Austin Collie and Dallas Clark are possibilities, but they would need to be the first or second option for Kerry Collins to get any action, since I think the Steeler pass rush will have a big day on Sunday night and Collins won't have time to get to his third or fourth read.

So, Indianapolis doesn't have Manning and their offensive line is sketchy at best.  They haven't been able to run the ball at all the past three seasons and the Steelers have had an outstanding run defense since 1992, which means that it will be a lot of Collins running for his life.  Collins never ran that well to begin with and I'm guessing that being 38 and retired all offseason hasn't made him any faster.

Then you have their injury report for this week and it shows that the only good news is that Robert Mathis practiced and should play Sunday night.  Mathis is up against Marcus Gilbert, who is making only his second start.  Crowd noise will play a factor.  If the Colts can force an early turnover or two and convert those into points, then they can win this game.  This team is built to keep crushing down opponents after they get a lead and a lot of those pieces are still in place, even with Manning gone and Freeney not as good as he used to be.  The trouble is that Indianapolis has been having a really tough time scoring points at all, nonetheless building a lead (against pretty shaky defenses in Houston and Cleveland), and the Steelers don't exactly suck on defense.

I think there are two ways this game could shake out:

1. Colts keep it close in the first half -- a field goal or a touchdown on either side -- but the Steelers lean on Indy until they fall over, much like the second half of the Seahawks game, just with a smaller lead coming out of halftime.
2. The Steelers jump out to a big first half lead, the Colts coaches decide they need a change, and Curtis Painter goes into the game at quarterback for Indianapolis.

I fully expect option #1 to happen, since I don't think that the Steelers are "there" enough to jump out to a big first half lead.

If they do, this game has the potential to get really, really ugly for the Colts.  Kerry Collins isn't a world-beater, but Painter makes him look like a Voltron quarterback combining Michael Vick's legs, John Elway's arm, Tom Brady's awareness, Peyton Manning's preparation, and Ben Roethlisberger's improvisational skills.  Well, so, that's a real overstatement.  But the point remains that Painter sucks something awful. 

If he gets into the game, it will be like when Charlie Frye would come into Browns games late, when the contest had already been all but decided and the coaches wanted to see what he could do.  What he usually did was throw a couple of six yard skippers on seven yard outs, get sacked a bunch, sometimes throw interceptions, and fumble every third time he got sacked.  So, I guess Curtis Painter is a re-incarnation of Charlie Frye, which is bad news for a Colts team that has already endured a good deal of that in the last month.


It's a game the Steelers can win, a game they should win, and a game they damn-well better win.  But, I still don't think it's going to be a blowout (just like in Week 2, I don't they cover the 10.5 point spread).

Prediction:
Steelers 21, Colts 10

Seahawks at Steelers Preview

I stalled on this one for two reasons.  First, I had to turn in my picks for our new Pick Em series.  Second, I really wasn't sure what to write, aside from, "The Steelers really, really should win this game."

So, the Steelers really, really should win this game.

I don't think that Seattle is a horrible team and, even if they're a west coast team playing at 1 p.m. Eastern time on the road, I don't think that they're that much worse than the Steelers.  The line for this game opened at 16, which is fairly insane.  I think enough people took advantage of that crazy line and it eventually moved to 14.  But, then I guess enough crazy, drunken Steeler fans saw that as easy money and it moved back to 15.  I think that 15 is just as crazy a line.

Don't get me wrong, I believe the Steelers will definitely win on Sunday.  I just don't think they'll win by 15.  I could see a ten point victory or even two touchdowns, but they'd need a 31-14 or 31-13 win and I don't think the offense is ready to score that many points.  After all, who would be dumb enough to predict a 31-13 final?

You can talk all you want about talent on defense and the potential the Steelers have on offense.  You can talk about how Tavarris Jackson is a dreadful, dreadful quarterback and Ben Roethlisberger is a top-five guy, but the fact remains that Jackson had a higher passer rating in Week 1 than Roethlisberger.  The Seahawks actually played a solid defensive game against the 49ers last week, they just played absolutely crappy special teams.  This could be a close game or even a Seattle win if the Steelers turn the ball over seven times or they have a couple of meltdowns on special teams.

Having said that, I also picked the Steelers in my NFL Survivor Pool this week, so I still think they're going to win.

When you play as badly as the Steelers did against the hated Ravens in Week 1, you have a long list of things to fix.  It would be naive to think that all those issues could suddenly be resolved in the space of seven days, just because our guys are "mad and determined" and their guys are "not very good."  Our guys are mad and determined and their guys aren't very good, but that doesn't mean this turns into a blowout.  This week and next week are all about getting a little bit better each time, rounding into regular season form, and hopefully picking up a couple of victories in the process.

Seattle may be a force in few years because they have a lot of youth and a lot of talent.  Currently, their coach is Pete Carroll and their quarterback is Tavarris Jackson, so I can't say they scare me.

In addition, this game gives Marcus Gilbert an opportunity to ease into the starting right tackle job.  The Steelers talked to Flozell Adams after Willie Colon went on injured reserve, but Adams was asking for the sky.  They signed some dude named Jamon Meredith for insurance, but, in the end, they did what they always do: They went in-house.  I think that's the right move.  Meredith would be a plug-in guy and Adams would be an extremely expensive band aid.  Maybe Colon comes back next year and plays well, or maybe he's discovered to be too fragile to be depended upon.  If he can't be depended upon, then the Steelers would be stuck in the same situation going into camp next year that they were this year: Adams is old and expensive and isn't the future.

When the Steelers drafted Gilbert, I originally thought he'd be a great fit at right tackle.  I had also assumed that Max Starks -- another big guy that played left tackle at Florida and needed to make the transition to the right side -- would be able to work with Gilbert and keep him from making the same mistakes Starks made.  Well, Starks got cut, Gilbert was hurt early in training camp, then he spent all of his time at left tackle.  Adams made a pretty smooth transition to the right side and that was after a lifetime of playing left tackle.  Gilbert should need less time, but more attention, since he's doesn't have to unlearn as many left tackle habits, but he needs to be trained on how to play right tackle.

Gilbert is a good move for now and for the future.  But, I'm also thinking that he'll need some time and attention, which is why it's good that he didn't have to jump in and make his first start at right tackle against the hated Ravens or Patriots.  He gets this week to get his feet wet and get settled, then he has Robert Mathis next week.  I hope he's ready.

Prediction:
Steelers 27, Seahawks 17

AFC North Preview

As I see it, this division breaks down to a couple of two-team races.

The Bengals and Browns are battling for third place, with the loser finishing last.  The Steelers and hated Ravens are battling for first place, with the loser finishing second.

As far as the first "race" is concerned, I think the Browns finish on top.  They seem more together, they have more talent, and they have a better owner.  Also, they have the cross-state rivalry with the Bengals and the one-sided rivalry with the Steelers.  The games are far more important to them than they are to the other team.  They're more important to the fans -- who still exist in Cleveland, which is surprising -- and the fans will show up, with a number of Browns faithful probably making the trip to Cincinnati for a road game.

Everyone in the AFC North gets to play the same, cushy schedule against the NFC West and the AFC South, which, for the time being, is minus Peyton Manning and has two rebuilding teams in the Titans and the Jaguars.  The two teams on the bottom half of the standings could take advantage of the soft schedule and bring the general record of the division up in the process.  But... there will probably be some Cardinals-Browns and 49ers-Bengals games later in the season that are only relevant for fantasy purposes.

For the other race in the division, that is a more complicated question.  Since the start of the 2008 season -- the beginning of the John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco Era -- the hated Ravens are 32-16 and the Steelers are 33-15.  (Side Note: Given John Harbaugh's success, at what point do we start referring to Jim Harbaugh as "John Harbaugh's Brother"?  Jim will, no doubt, crash and burn in San Francisco as a former college coach moving to a broken franchise with weak owners.  Once Jim starts to fail, this movement needs to start.)  The Steelers have two division titles and two playoff appearances, the hated Ravens have won zero division titles, but have been to the playoffs three times.  Baltimore wants to get to the Super Bowl and the Steelers are in the way.  In order to get where they need to get, the hated Ravens need to knock the Steelers out.

When the lockout ended, Baltimore cut Willis McGahee, Kelly Gregg, Todd Heap, and Derrick Mason.  I thought that they were purging their roster and starting a rebuilding process.  Then I realized that it was 2011 and not 2008 and that the hated Ravens were trying to cut some dead weight.  The Steelers effectively lost Flozell Adams and Max Starks, but the offensive line has looked at least equivalent this preseason.   The teams are basically even.

It will come down to Joe Flacco versus Ben Roethlisberger this season.  History says that we should back Roethlisberger.  Flacco did a good job with a marginal receiving corps last season.  This season, the team subtracted Mason and added Lee Evans.  Their top two guys are Anquan Boldin and Lee Evans.  Once again, it's 2011 and not 2008.

I think the Steelers and hated Ravens will beat common opponents and that the Steelers will get the best of Baltimore.

Thus, with a 12-4 record, the Steelers win the division.  I think they get the better of the hated Ravens over the course of the season.   I think that the difference will be Ben Roethlisberger over Joe Flacco.

For anyone that takes issue with this prediction, I would like to remind you that the name of this blog is "Steelers N At" and not "Ravens Rule, Hon!"  I try to remove myself from my fandom as much as possible, but sometimes emotion and team loyalty get in the way.

Official Predictions:

1. Steelers (12-4)
2. Hated Ravens (11-5)
3. Cleveland Browns (7-9)
4. Bengals (5-11)

Pens vs. Lightning Playoff Primer

Ever since the Flyers clinched the division and the Pens got locked into a series with the Lightning, I've been trying to figure this series out.  The 4-5 match-up should be tough to handicap, but this one seems to be especially hard to figure out.

The teams split the season series two games apiece.  Tampa won the last meeting, but the Pens blew them out in the two before that.  The Pens have homefield advantage in the series, but Tampa scored 48 of their 103 points on the road and the Pens actually scored more points on the road than at home (fewer wins, but more overtime losses), so they may have been better off as the five seed here, but just for this series.

The Lightning have an explosive offense, led by stars and talented goal scorers and a serviceable defense with solid roleplayers.  The Pens have an excellent, disciplined defense with two good offensive defensemen (Kris Letang and Brooks Orpik) and a defensive forward in Jordan Staal, with a serviceable offense filled with solid roleplayers.  On offense, the Pens certainly have guys that can score, but none of them have scored consistently, which boils down to a lot of one goal wins.

With Staal, Kennedy, Neal, Kovy, Talbot, and DuPuis, the Pens do have a lot of talent and they have a lot of guys with playoff experience that can shoot the puck.  They have four pretty solid lines and don't have a weak link from top-to-bottom, especially when you consider that the defensemen are interchangeable and can support a weaker offensive line by creating opportunities in transition.  The trouble is that, without Crosby and Malkin, they don't have that one line that scares the hell out of everybody.  Tampa's first line scares the hell out of me, makes me think the Pens could lose this series.

Sure, defense wins championships, but goals win games.  Everything gets tighter and defensive teams usually have an edge when playoff time starts, but there's really no substitute for that one Uber-line that keeps the other team awake at night.

The experts on ESPN.com favor the Pens, with six out of eight picking them to advance past the first round.  That's comforting, but they also seemed convinced that the Flyers don't stand a chance against the Sabres, which I find tough to swallow.  I think those two series should be very even, with the team that wants it more and gets the most breaks coming out on top.

At any rate, I think that the Tampa offense -- especially the first line -- should be fairly negated by the Pens defense.  In order to really roll on the Pens defense, you need to go outside-inside by avoiding the middle of the ice in the crease and sweeping in to crash the net when you get in the opposing team's zone.  That's tough to do and I don't think Tampa has the talent to pull it off, but they could wear the Pens down eventually by spending a lot of time in the offensive zone.  Ultimately, this is a wash.

Tampa's defense isn't great, but neither is the Pens offense.  If any combination of the offensive roleplayers gets hot, then the Pens could smoke the Lightning in five games, but I doubt that happens.  It could be that they start to gel together during this series -- remember, there have been a ton of injuries aside from Crosby and Malkin and Kovy and Neal only joined the team in February -- and get hot in Game 6.  That's another longshot, though.  The most likely outcome is that the Pens grind out a lot of close games to advance and will (hopefully) be able to save their "signature" game for the later rounds.

Special teams is very nearly a wash with the Pens holding a slight advantage.  Even without Sid "diving" they still draw a fair number of penalties.  They're 26th in the league on the power play, but with enough chances, they could sneak a few key goals through, even against the 8th-ranked penalty kill.  The big advantage here is the Pens penalty kill, which is the best in the league.  If they can keep that up, they won't get caught with their pants down when they're shorthanded in a close game.

Offense and defense are a wash.  Special teams is basically a wash.  That means it comes down to goaltending.  Marc-Andre Fleury has been spectacular at times this season, especially in the last couple of months.  He's also had some troubling lapses in concentration this season, especially in the last couple of months.  Still, I would take Fleury over 41-year old Dwayne Roloson.  If he has two bad games in this series, the Pens are sunk.  Then again, if he has two bad games in any series, the Pens are sunk.  Roloson can't have a bad game and make it easy for the Pens to score.  That's the one area where they've struggled since their captains went down and any team that gives them hope and confidence is going to be in big trouble.

I'm not saying that Fleury is awesome and Roloson is a bum.  I'm saying that I trust Fleury to not have two bad games in this series more than I trust Roloson to not slip up occasionally (or have even one, entire bad game). 

I think Tampa's a great team and they could certainly win this series.  I just don't think that they will win it.

Prediction: Pens in 6

Power vs. Barnstormers Preview: Keller's Take

Weidman already did a great job of reviewing Week 1 and previewing Week 2, so I'm just going to add a couple of thoughts.

1. The offense looks like it's way ahead of the defense.  I expected their timing to be a little off in the first game and I definitely didn't expect them to score 52 points.  That's a nice surprise and I think they have some solid players on that side of the ball.
2. To go along with #1, the defense has some issues.  The front five has some talent, especially linebacker Caleb Bostic and definitely end Neil Purvis.  Purvis is the best player on the defensive line by far and made some key plays, both as a pass rusher and defending the run.  The cornerbacks are the problem.  I don't think it's time to start cutting guys, but the Power basically have two options: Sign better players or get to the quarterback faster.  This week, I'm thinking they need to overload blitz to Purvis' side and blitz the one guy that they're allowed to send.  This will at least make the opposing quarterback make a decision faster and could force some turnovers, which would be very welcome.  Whatever passing yards and touchdowns they give up, the offense can probably match it and it's doubtful they can do much worse than they did against the Soul.
3. Bernard Morris is a talented player, but he's still green and still has some holes in his game.  He stares down receivers, which led to the pick-six that ended the game in overtime.  He holds the ball too long when his first option is taken away.  If his first read is open, he's very good at recognizing it and releasing, but he showed a tendency to go all Roethlisberger and hold the ball when he needs to go through his progressions.  This led to the safety in the fourth quarter.  Those two items can be fixed with time, practice, coaching, and experience.  Morris is still young and he's still learning.  The one hole in his game that can't be fixed is that he doesn't put a lot of zip on the ball when he has to throw it farther than 20 yards.  He floated a ball and threw it short in the first half of the game against the Soul, missing a sure touchdown pass that could've blown the game open.  If other teams in the league catch onto this fact -- and they're bound to -- then they can sit on routes and not worry about getting burned deep.  It could be, though, that he was a little tight in his first game and was trying to be too precise and put too much touch on the ball instead of just going out there and winging it.  Maybe he can make Iowa pay if they try to camp out on short routes and he's able to beat them deep.
4. The Power have a dance team.  They're called the Sparks.  They are worth the price of a general admission ticket.  Weidman has said that we will get pictures and post them.  So, stay tuned for that.

As far as the Barnstormers are concerned, I don't know much about them.  As Weidman pointed out, there's not a whole lot we can learn from the first Power game and Iowa had a bye in Week 1.  I think this is a game the Power can definitely win, especially if the crowd is behind them like they were last week.


As far as a prediction is concerned... uh, give me some time.  I don't know enough about all the teams yet -- even the Power -- and the scores in this league are very unpredictable.  But, the games are also extremely entertaining, so right now I'm just going to enjoy the ride.

Super Bowl Preview

The moment has arrived. The moment where I unveil the winner of this year's Super Bowl.

The trouble is that I wasn't sure about this game after Championship Weekend and I'm still not sure about it.

I read pretty much every preview and prediction on the Internet. I was trying to look for some key or some strategic advantage that one team had over the other that was going to vault that team to victory. I failed.

What I found was a bunch of articles and blog posts that basically said, "Player X for the Steelers is good and Player X for the Packers is good. We think that the Packers/Steelers will win because the players on that team will be gooder and that will lead to a championship for that team." It could be that Comment sections have paralyzed writers to the point that they're afraid to actually say anything because someone, somewhere on the Internet will bring up something that they hadn't thought of. But, really, I think the issue is that these are two evenly matched teams that have a lot of strengths and not a lot of weaknesses. They're so similar and strong that it's hard to pinpoint one thing that will sway the game.

That's why I think that the team that does the best job of exposing the other team's weaknesses will win the game. If both teams take advantage of their strengths and mask their weaknesses, then I have no idea who will win. If both teams exploit all the other team's weaknesses, then it's going to be a pretty crappy game... and I'm not sure who will win.

Without further ado, here are the weaknesses for each team.

Packers Weaknesses:

Right tackle Bryan Bulaga and left tackle Chad Clifton:

Bulaga is a rookie. He hasn't played badly this season, but he also hasn't played all that great. Woodley had yet another solid season and he's had a tremendous postseason. He has at least one sack in his last six postseason games.

My guess is that the Packers give Bulaga some help, either with a tight end or a running back. If Woodley is still able to beat that, or they find that leaving that extra guy in to block is slowing down their passing game, then Aaron Rodgers will get sacked by Woodley. I don't think that Rodgers is as susceptible to getting broken down by contact as Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, but you can wear him down. This is a "kill the head and the body will die" situation, because Rodgers is what makes this offense go, even though Green Bay has a lot of talent at the receiver position.

Harrison had a big game in Super Bowl XLIII and has shown the ability to take over games in the past, so he's always someone to keep an eye on. Clifton is a good player and he's not a liability, but that's not exactly high praise.

ESPN.com broke down the top 106 players in the Super Bowl last week and I found something interesting. If you look at that list, Harrison is ranked 3rd and Woodley is ranked 13th. Clifton and Bulaga are ranked 24th and 39th, respectively.

I'm sure Dick LeBeau has something up his sleeve, but I also don't know that he needs to have something up his sleeve. Unless the Packers keep extra blockers in the formation, Woodley and Harrison should be able to win these match-ups and exploit this weakness. If they can't -- if Bulaga and Clifton have great games and/or Harrison and Woodley come out flat -- then Rodgers will be able to pick the Steelers apart since the head will not be killed and the body will not die.

This is Green Bay's biggest weakness and it's the greatest strength for the Steelers. That's why I listed it first.

SS Charlie Peprah:

The Packers have placed three strong safeties on IR this season. They're down to Peprah -- who had 11 starts this season, so he's not totally green -- but isn't a great player. Everyone else in the Green Bay secondary was voted to the Pro Bowl, so he's their weakness.

I think the Packers will try to take Mike Wallace out of the game the same way the Jets and hated Ravens were able to take him out of the game: Put their best deep cover guy on him and give that guy safety help deep. That puts Tramon Williams and Nick Collins -- who's actually very good and has been overlooked in all the Troy talk -- on Wallace. That takes Wallace out of the game -- most likely, but I still have hope that he'll do something awesome -- but it also takes out Collins and Williams out of the game, which is huge.

Charles Woodson probably draws Hines Ward and that takes Hines out of the game. That means it's up to Heath Miller and Emmanuel Sanders to carve up Peprah.

The Packers have had trouble with tight ends and third receivers all year. The reason for that is mostly Peprah, but also because there's a big drop-off from the starting corners to the third cornerback. That third cornerback -- rookie Sam Shields -- had two interceptions against the Bears, but I think that was an outlier.

The Steelers need to be able to pick on him and Peprah. Maybe Antonio Brown has another big play left in him.

The First Five Minutes and the Last Five Minutes:

The Steelers have a bunch of guys -- 17 in all -- that will be playing in their third Super Bowl on Sunday. Those guys have already won two. The Packers have a total of two players that have been to a Super Bowl and neither of those guys played for the winning team.

Now, given the fact that a lot of first time teams and teams that were lean on Super Bowl experience have won it all recently -- including the Steelers in Super Bowl XL -- I don't think that experience is a huge advantage. Where it is a slight advantage is in the first five minutes of the game.

The Green Bay coaches have been talking to their players all week about how it's just another game and they just need to focus on what they practiced, but it won't be just another game when it kicks off. The Packers players will probably be overwhelmed by the scope of the game and they may take a bad angle, or try too hard on a play, or get stuck out of position, or miss a tackle. After about five minutes of in-game experience, everything tends to calm down and they'll realize that it's just another football game and they've been playing football their entire lives.

If Green Bay slips up in that first five minutes, the Steelers need to make them pay for it.

The last five minutes of the game are where the Steelers have a clear edge. If it's a close game, the last five minutes are the most important five minutes because they're the ones at the end.

The Packers lost their six games this season by a total of 20 points. The one side of that argument is that they're probably better than their record and they proved that they deserve to be considered an elite team because they tore their way through the playoffs on the road. The other side of that argument is that they probably choked in the last five minutes of those games.

The Steelers -- on offense and defense -- seem to take care of business in the last five minutes and they've done well towards the end of games this season. If this is a close game and it comes down to the wire, the Steelers will win.

Steelers Weaknesses:

RT Flozell Adams and LT Jonathan Scott:

I've been tough on Adams this season and he really hasn't been that bad. He's a great run blocker -- most of the yards and big plays the Steelers made on the ground this season were to the right side -- and he's a decent pass blocker. But, if you look at that list I linked to, he's ranked as the 48th best player in this game. Scott is ranked 67th.

Clay Matthews is ranked 4th overall. Matthews is an incredibly talented player and he also has a knack for destroying the guy lined up across from him if there's a big talent disparity. With Adams and Scott, there's a big talent disparity. In Week 5 against the Redskins, the Packers lined Matthews up across from some rookie right tackle I'd never heard of. Matthews would have had 15 sacks in that game if he didn't get hurt midway through the second quarter. Even with the injury, he had 1.5 sacks and two tackles for loss.

A.J. Hawk is a very good player, too. This is an impressive front seven and the offensive line will need to play at least as good as they did against the Jets to score enough points to keep up with the Green Bay offense.

Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers probably has some tricks up his sleeve as well. He'll probably try lining Matthews up at left end so that he can go after Adams. If LeBeau is the Godfather of the zone blitz defense, Capers is Tom Hagen. Remember, Capers and LeBeau designed the 3-4 defense that Bill Cowher implemented when he started coaching the Steelers in 1992. At that time, Capers was the coordinator and LeBeau was coaching the linebackers. Darren Perry and Kevin Greene are both position coaches for the Packers. There's a lot of history between the players and coaches on these teams and there's a lot of familiarity.

Both offenses have talked this week about the fact that, wrinkles aside, both teams run the same defense. That kind of familiarity with a defense favors the offense, which is a possible explanation for the fact that last year's game ended with a final score of 37-36. Anything that favors the offense favors the Packers, because they have a better offense.

C Doug Legursky:

The fact that he has an awesome football name aside, Legursky is not that great of a player. He's ranked 66th on that list. Green Bay nose tackle B.J. Raji is ranked 6th and he maybe should be ranked a little higher. Regardless of whether Pouncey or Legursky got the start on Sunday, Raji was going to have a big edge because he's an excellent player.

The fact that Legursky is starting instead of Pouncey turns this from an edge for Raji into a weakness for the Steelers. It's a big one. The way to pressure Roethlisberger is to attack him from the edges and contain the outside. The best way to sack him is to pressure him up the middle. With the guys on the edges keeping him from rolling out and making a big play, he steps up into pressure and gets sacked. Think of how much Darnell Dockery disrupted the offense in Super Bowl XLIII and you have some idea of how disruptive Raji will be.

SS Troy Polamalu:

I was going to classify this weakness as just "the secondary" but Ryan Clark isn't a weakness and it's a well-established fact that the cornerbacks aren't the strength of this Steelers defense. They haven't been for the last 20 years or so. The best way to protect the cornerbacks is to get to the quarterback. That's the way it's always been and Sunday will be no different.

The weakness here is that I think Troy is still hurt. They've insulated him the past couple of weeks by making him play center field and allowing him to come up and make plays. He played a pretty craptastic game against the hated Ravens in the Divisional round and he was slightly better against the Jets. If he's healthy, then that means he can move around and disguise his position and direction before the snap.

If he's still hurt -- and I think he is -- then Aaron Rodgers knows where he'll be. He'll be in center field. That weakens the Steeler defense because it takes away a lot of what they like to do. It gives Rodgers an advantage if he knows where Troy is at all times and where Troy will end up.

The Field:

The Steelers had the "luxury" of playing their two playoff games in Heinz Field. They know the turf. They know its strengths and weaknesses. It's a grass field and they played on in it January, which favors the defense.

This game is being played indoors. The Packers are a dome team that happens to play their games outdoors in Wisconsin. They don't have much of a running game, they have five good receivers, and they have an aggressive, highly talented quarterback. The last game they played in a dome, they put up 48 points.

I don't think they'll put up 48 points on the Steelers, but the fact that this game is being played indoors favors the offense. Anything that favors the offense favors the Packers.

What I Think Will Happen:

I think the Packers will overcome the "opening five minute jitters" or that the Steelers won't be able to capitalize on that weakness. Maybe they get a field goal out of it.

I think Green Bay will jump out to a pretty sizable early lead and go into halftime up by at least two touchdowns.

Rodgers will keep his foot on the gas, just like he did against the Falcons. The Packers will score just enough in the second half to stay well ahead.

The Steelers will attempt to mount a comeback, but they'll run out of time. That will eliminate the "last five minutes" weakness for the Packers.

I know that the Steelers have the edge of experience and confidence and that they always "find ways to win," but this is the Super Bowl. It will come down to which team has the most talent and which team has the fewest exploitable weaknesses. The Packers have more talent and fewer weaknesses.

I've spent the past two weeks trying to convince myself that the Steelers can win, but I have failed. Any time I try to convince myself that they can win, they don't. Especially if I fail to convince myself.

I hope I'm wrong. I'll be happy to be wrong. But, I think I'm right.

Prediction:
Packers 27, Steelers 17

NFC Championship Game Preview

Let me get this out in the open right off the bat: I hate Jay Cutler's face. He looks like the bastard love child of Billy Zabka and William Atherton. Every time I see him, I want to punch him in the face. Usually, Ray Lewis or Tom Brady need to do something to make me want to punch them in the face. Not Jay Cutler. He just needs to have a face.

I desperately do not want to see his face for the next two weeks, but I still think the Bears are going to win Sunday's NFC Championship game.

I'm aware of the fact that the Packers are favored by 3.5 points to win this game. If you get three points for playing at home, that means Green Bay would be 6.5 point favorites at a neutral site. I have difficulty believing that the Packers are a touchdown better than the Bears and I'm sure they do, too.

On Wednesday, I was convinced that the Bears were going to win this game. Then I started reading a bunch of stuff online about how the Packers were going to win. I started to re-think things. Then I realized that I truly believed Chicago was going to win.

I think that everyone is a little too high on the Packers after they beat a banged up, undercoached Philly team, then trounced an overrated Falcons team. I think they beat two consecutive opponents that were as unbalanced as they were. Those teams just weren't able to strike at the weaknesses of this Green Bay team. The Bears will be able to do that.

I think everyone believes that Aaron Rodgers is far more invincible than he is. He's not going to come close to the 31-for-36 performance that he put up in the Divisional round because the Chicago defense will not let him.

I think that the Packers won't be able to run the ball against a Bears defense that finished second in the league.

I think that Aaron Rodgers will have a tough time against an underrated Chicago pass defense. The Bears basically held Rodgers in check this season and they won't let him take over this game.

I think the Chicago front four is going to take over this game. The Bears run a Cover 2 defense. When the Cover 2 defense is working, the front four either sacks the quarterback or forces him to check down. Rodgers does not want to check down. In the game against Atlanta, he wanted to score on every drive. That kind of drive helps you when you're up 35-14, but it hurts you when you're trying to slowly pick apart a defense that's hitting you on every dropback. Rodgers will want to throw a 105 yard touchdown pass on every play, but the Bears defense will pressure him and take away the big play. In order to beat this defense, he is going to need to slowly, methodically pick them apart like Peyton Manning did in Super Bowl XLI. I don't think he has that patience. He's going to flinch before this defense does and that is going to work in Chicago's favor.

On the offensive side for the Bears, the Packers have a great defense. I think the Bears can wear them down in the running game and that Jay Cutler will not make the critical mistake. I think that Mike Martz is finally on the same page with Cutler and has managed to eliminate his weaknesses (bad decisions, poor throws) and maximize his strengths (great arm, good vision). Martz will set Cutler up to succeed and do his best to insure that Cutler will not fail.

Chicago won the last meeting between these teams at Soldier Field and they hung in there when they had nothing to play for -- Lovie Smith kept his starters in -- and Green Bay barely won 10-3 when they had everything to play for.

Basically, this game is a wash. It should come down to coaching, luck, and special teams.

In terms of coaching, the odds are even. Mike McCarthy is hardly a master, but neither is Smith.

When it comes to luck, the Bears should have lost their Week 1 game against Detroit, which would have changed their whole season. They should have had to play the Eagles or the Saints in the Divisional round, which would have changed things, but they played the Seahawks. They haven't had a lot of injuries, which have plagued the Packers.

They have a HUGE edge in special teams, having won the first game in this series on a return touchdown.

Offense and defense are a wash, but they hold a two to one edge in intangibles. Add in that this game will be played in Chicago, the fans will be fired up, and the players will know the playing surface (which should be slick) and it makes sense that the Bears should win.

Prediction:
Bears 23, Packers 20

Steelers-Jets Preview: Take II

This may seem at first like it's a reboot of the Steelers-Hated Ravens preview from last week, but bear with me.

I am aware of the fact that the Jets are a great team and they have a number of talented players. They have a savvy, confident coaching staff and they beat two of the best quarterbacks in the league -- if not the best quarterbacks in the league -- in back-to-back weeks in Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. They're productive on offense and stingy on defense.

They also beat the Steelers in Week 15.

I am aware of all of these things, but I still feel as though the Steelers will win on Sunday and advance to Super Bowl XLV. I am confident of this, but I am not as confident of this as I was that the Steelers were going to beat the hated Ravens in the Divisional Round. The weird thing is that I'm less confident in the outcome, but I have more reasons why the Steelers will win this time around.

It's complicated, so allow me to explain...

It's All About Match-ups:

The Jets matched up well against the Patriots and Colts because they have such great quarterbacks. In the case of both teams, the offense was better than the defense. In the case of both teams, the success (or failure) of the offense was intrinsically linked to the success (or failure) of those two quarterbacks. Kill the head and the body will die.

Manning and Brady are so good that they make the players around them better. If the Patriots had beat the Jets -- and I'm glad they didn't -- then one of the main points I was going to make was that the sum of the parts for the Patriots is greater than the whole. They work well together as an offense, especially in the passing game, even though they don't have a great deal of talent at the individual level. If the Steelers were able to isolate on individuals and win those match-ups while simultaneously getting to Brady and making him worse, they could shut down the New England offense. That's what the Jets did in the Divisional Round.

I don't think they can do that to the Steelers on Sunday because the Steelers have too many talented players in the passing game. If the Jets use their talent to win individual match-ups and take away Mike Wallace and Hines Ward, there's still Heath Miller. Miller missed the last game with a concussion -- which I think was a bigger deal than the Polamalu injury in that game -- and the Jets were allowed to focus on shutting down Wallace, Ward, and Emmanuel Sanders, forcing Matt Spaeth to try and beat them. Matt Spaeth sucks something awful, so he was not able to accomplish this.

Take away Ward, Wallace, and Miller and Sanders and possibly Antonio Brown can still beat you. They can still beat the Jets. Even if New York wins a high percentage of the individual match-ups in coverage -- which they're used to doing with great players like Revis and Cromartie at cornerback -- the Steelers passing game can still be successful. That was not the case in the Colts game, the Patriots game, or the first game between these two teams.

We Already Took Their Best Shot:

As some highly-intelligent, very pedantic blogger already pointed out, the Jets pulled out all the stops in the Week 15 meeting, while the Steelers showcased a very vanilla game plan.

As much as most football players would have you believe that they don't care what's said in the media and what people outside the locker room think, I think the Jets really care. The psychology of the team is based in part around head coach Rex Ryan. Ryan grew up as the son of Buddy Ryan, a notoriously meticulous and critical coach, so one would have to assume he brought a little of that home. That means that young Rex spent his formative years seeking approval and admiration and that has carried over into who he is today. That has influenced how his player approach games and situations.

The Jets came into Heinz Field in Week 15 having just been blown out by the Patriots and losing at home to the 7-9 Dolphins. People were starting to doubt that they were a good team. The best way for them to prove that they were a good team was to go on the road and beat a good team, which is exactly what they did. They reached deep into their bag of tricks and I don't know how many more they have left.

In addition, the Jets scored nine points on a safety and a kickoff return for a touchdown. I'm not discounting those points. The Jets scored them fair and square. I'm just saying that I don't see them getting a safety and a special teams touchdown on Sunday. They pulled out all the stops, Troy and Heath were injured, and they still needed a safety and a special teams touchdown to win the last game.

After all the crazy stuff that happened against the hated Ravens, anything is possible. I just don't think it's likely.

Psychology of a Quarterback:

New York was able to break Manning and Brady down by hitting them, sacking them, and pressuring them. Ben Roethlisberger doesn't seem to wear down or get rattled by contact. He had a great game against the hated Ravens despite being sacked six times. Now, he could always do something stupid, but the timing and consequences of those dumb decisions cannot be predicted.

Mark Sanchez is a great, young quarterback, but he's still a young quarterback. He will get better and he will have more shots at the postseason, but I don't think he's ready yet. Sanchez made it to the AFC Championship game last year, but his experience tells him that all he knows how to do is lose the AFC Championship game. Roethlisberger knows what's at stake and he knows what he needs to do to win this game. This isn't to say that trends can't shift or change, but I don't think they shift or change on Sunday.

But, There's Always Santonio:

Santonio Holmes seems to do his best work in the playoffs. He has an ax to grind with the Steelers because they randomly traded him in the offseason. He's one game away from the Super Bowl. Ike Taylor said that he wanted to knock Holmes out of the game.

Santonio has plenty of motivation, so here's hoping that he doesn't fully channel that and end up taking over the game instead of getting knocked out of it.

Overall, I think this game is going to be a higher scoring affair than most are predicting. I think the defenses will set the offenses up with field position and turnovers. I don't think it will be quite the scoring fest that Steelers-Hated Ravens was last week, but I think it will be comparable.

I also think the Steelers win by a touchdown, but it will be a close, hard-fought game throughout.

In other words, take the Steelers and the Over (38.5).

Prediction:
Steelers 27, Jets 20

Steelers-Hated Ravens Preview Take III

The only thing that makes me nervous about this game is that I'm not nervous about this game.

It's not that I think the hated Ravens are a bad team. I think they are a very good team that has the potential to be great, or even dominant.

It's not that I think the Steelers are supremely awesome and will easily handle any team that is simply only very good. I think the Steelers are a very good team that has the potential to be great, or even dominant.

The hated Ravens finished 12-4 on the regular season, but they really didn't beat anyone. They beat the Jets, but that was Week 1. They beat the Saints, which counts as a quality win. They beat the Steelers, but they also lost to the Steelers.

The Steelers finished 12-4 on the regular season, but they really didn't beat anyone. They beat the Falcons, but that was Week 1. They beat the hated Ravens, but they also lost to the hated Ravens.

The hated Ravens key off their stifling defense, which includes many explosive playmakers that can change the game with one play. They seek to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, stop the run, and wear the other team down with their running game, though they haven't run the ball especially well this season. They have a top-flight quarterback -- even if he has a tragic unibrow -- and several talented, accomplished receivers. When they're forcing turnovers on defense and in a rhythm on offense, they're pretty much unstoppable.

The Steelers key off their stifling defense, which includes many explosive playmakers that can change the game with one play. They seek to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, stop the run, and wear the other team down with their running game, though they haven't run the ball especially well this season. They have a top-flight quarterback... wait. Didn't I just say that?

I spent most of the season privately dismissing the hated Ravens, but knowing they were a very good team and would win a lot of games, which would result in a playoff berth. I spent all season -- and all week -- thinking that the hated Ravens could not beat the Steelers because the Steelers were the better team. I ultimately realized that the hated Ravens are the Steelers. These two teams are basically a wash.

They split during the regular season, with each team winning on the road. They played two games and ended up at a 27-27 tie. This is the tiebreaker.

The popular thinking is to "throw the records out" when two rivals like this play, but why would you want to throw this season's records out? They were both 12-4.

The Steelers have homefield advantage, but they lost to the hated Ravens at Heinz Field earlier this season and are only 5-3 at home. The only advantage for the Steelers in this game is that they had an extra week to rest up and get healthy. The hated Ravens don't have an injuries of note, though, so they might actually have the advantage in that they're not rusty. I'm not a big believer in rust -- if you're an accountant and you go on vacation for a week, you don't forget what debits and credits are and you may actually be more productive after having spent a relaxing week getting away from it all while the other accountants were busy being stressed out and crunching numbers -- but if it is a factor, the hated Ravens hold the advantage.

If these teams are so even, why am I not worried?

Because I think this game comes down to Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Flacco, which is a situation where you don't throw the records out the window. The Steelers defense has owned Flacco and he has a career 78 quarterback rating against them. He's 2-5 lifetime against the Steelers (including playoffs) and those two wins came against Dennis Dixon in 2009 and Charlie Batch earlier this season.

Roethlisberger is 8-3 against the hated Ravens (including playoffs) for his career and this time he doesn't have a broken nose and a broken foot. I think that it will be a close game, but I don't think that the hated Ravens will win it. Either Flacco will commit a fatal mistake or Roethlisberger will make a game changing play or both. It's usually the first one, then the second, but I'm flexible.

I'm still excited for the game. I still can't wait for it to start. I kinda can't wait for it to be over. But I'm not nervous.

And that worries me.

Prediction:
Steelers 20, Hated Ravens 13

2010 Playoff Predictions

We're back for another round, with the added wrinkle that the Steelers are actually in the playoffs this year. Don't worry, I'm not going to be a total homer and pick them to go all the way.

AFC Bracket:

The Chiefs really screwed me up by losing in Week 17. I was absolutely certain that they would be able to beat the Jets and the Colts own the hated Ravens, so that would send Indianapolis to New England and the Chiefs here. Kansas City, with a shaky defense, a solid running game, and only one receiver of any consequence, would lose to the Steelers at home and the Colts might upset the Patriots, in which case the Steelers would beat Indy and go to the Super Bowl.

But, the only outcome that scared me was having to play the Jets in the Divisional Round and that was taken care of. I guess that was maybe taken care of when the hated Ravens kept winning, New York had a couple of bad games late, and the hated Ravens won the Week 1 head-to-head match-up with the Jets, but so be it.

Here's the thing: I still think the Chiefs will beat the hated Ravens, which means they'll be the highest seeded team, which means they'll be coming to Pittsburgh on January 15th. The Ravens always struggle when they're facing a hot running team and there's that one guy that they need to stop. Kansas City is decent against the run and their big weakness on defense is against the deep pass, which the hated Ravens appear to have taken out of their playbook.

Well, the Chiefs are headed to Pittsburgh because I think the Jets are going to beat the Colts. I think the world of Peyton Manning, but his offensive line is average at best, his receivers are banged up, and New York has basically been playing out the string all year to get to the playoffs where the games really matter. Either that or they're a bunch of immature drama queens who don't always play hard. The point is that they're the more talented teams and talent tends to prevail unless your quarterback is a total dud, which I don't think Mark Sanchez is.

So, Jets beat Colts, Chiefs beat hated Ravens. Jets lose to Patriots (most likely) and Steelers beat Chiefs.

That sets up an AFC Championship game that we've seen before and we've seen how the movie ends when Tom Brady is involved. If someone, somehow knocks off the Patriots, then the Steelers go to the Super Bowl. If the Steelers need to go through Foxboro to get to Dallas... well, their season ends in Foxboro.

I also think that the Steelers win in the Divisional Round no matter who they play -- Colts, hated Ravens, or Chiefs -- because they match up too well against every team that they could play. They can beat any team in this side of the bracket in the Divisional Round except the Jets and the Patriots. But, if it comes down to Jets-Steelers for the AFC title, I have a feeling that experience, talent, guile, the fact that Heath will be back for that game, and homefield advantage will take over.

Ultimately, Steelers lose to Patriots in the AFC Championship game (again) and New England goes to yet another Super Bowl. I would like to pick the Steelers to win that game. I really would. But, in the last ten years or so, it's been like the 70s. The Patriots were the Steelers, the Steelers were Oakland, and the Colts were the Team That Went to the Super Bowl if the Steelers or Raiders Weren't Involved. Hey, I would love it if I were wrong. In the 80s, the Steelers took a major nosedive and the Raiders won two Super Bowls. I would be fine with that. I'm just saying I need to see it before I believe it.

NFC Bracket:

I have zero faith in the Seahawks. They were 7-9 in the regular season, got outscored by 97 points, and somehow went 4-2 in the worst division in football. The line for the Saints-Seahawks game has the Saints favored by 11 and I took the Saints.

I think Philly has enough talent to beat Green Bay. The Packers have Aaron Rodgers and a good defense. That's it. Philly is banged up -- well, both teams are banged up -- but they also have Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, and LeSean McCoy, three of the most dangerous players in the bracket. That's too many weapons and too much talent to ignore in a postseason where talent means everything.

Philly beats Green Bay, New Orleans beats Seattle.

That sends the Saints to Atlanta, where Matt Ryan is 20-2. Well, guess what? One of those losses was to Drew Brees and the Saints and it happened very recently. The Falcons strike me as a Cowher/Schottenheimer team that is very talented, very good at what they do, and very capable of winning a bunch of games that they should win, therefore getting seeded way too high for their talent level. They have one player -- Roddy White -- that can break a game open. They have an average-to-good defense. They have Mike Smith as their coach. From a quarterback, coach, and scheme standpoint, Atlanta-New Orleans is a match-up that highly favors the Saints. For that reason, I think the Falcons are the second least likely team to reach the Super Bowl, despite the fact that they are the number one seed in the NFC.

I actually have a lot of faith in Chicago and I think they are a good team that hasn't gotten their due.

I am going to pick Philly based on two things:

1. The Eagles are more talented and explosive and that's what wins playoff games.
2. I hate Jay Cutler's face. Every time I see him, I want to punch him. I can't explain it. I understand that I am possibly letting my emotions get the best of me, but I hate his face. I can't pick Jay Cutler to go to the NFC Championship game.

In the NFC Championship game -- which, given the teams involved could end up being 45-38 with a dramatic comeback from either side -- I need to take the Saints. They have the experience, they have the better quarterback, they will be more balanced when Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory get healthy.

That means I think the Patriots and Saints will go to Super Bowl XLV. I was way off last year -- pretty sure I picked Chargers-Vikings -- and predictions have sucked historically, but that's what I think.

Predictions:

AFC Playoffs:

Jets over Colts
Chiefs over hated Ravens
Patriots over Jets
Steelers over Chiefs
Patriots over Steelers

NFC Playoffs:

Saints over Seahawks
Eagles over Packers
Saints over Falcons
Eagles over Bears
Saints over Eagles

Super Bowl:

Patriots over Saints

Steelers-Browns Preview

First of all, Happy New Year! I think the Steelers should make a resolution to win a Super Bowl.

This game is just like the Panthers game. The Steelers must win (well, really, it would just be very nice if they won), they can win, and they should win. I think that they will win, but I'm not sure if it's going to be a tight game or a blowout.

The Browns have nothing left to play for -- maybe not even next season -- and the Steelers still have a reason to win this game. But, Cleveland hates Pittsburgh and it's a bigger rivalry for them than it is for the Steelers, so that's always dangerous. But, the Browns can't really claim that they're spoilers, because the season isn't on the line for the Steelers. As I mentioned before, this team is going to the playoffs, so it's not like they'd miss out on the playoffs if they didn't win.

I think the Steelers can score 17 points in this game even if the offense isn't working. That means that the Browns will need to score 20 points to win and I don't think they can do that. They won't be able to run the ball unless they roll out six offensive linemen -- which they could possibly do, since they've done the unbalanced line thing before -- which means that Colt McCoy is going to need to carry a big load on offense for them to score. I don't think that's something he can't do -- I really do like McCoy and I think he's going to be a good quarterback -- I just think it's something he won't do. Cleveland just doesn't have much talent on offense and they need to get the running game going to move the ball and score. Since I don't think they'll be able to get the running game going, I don't think they'll be able to score enough.

I also keep thinking back to 2005, where the Steelers destroyed the Browns 41-0 in Cleveland on their way to winning Super Bowl XL. I think that could very well happen on Sunday, especially if the Steelers get off to a fast start. If that happens, you have a situation like what happened against Carolina. The Browns players will just want to get off the field, sit on a heated bench, and think about the trips they're going to take in the offseason. In that situation, the game could get ugly, which would be awesome.

The less awesome eventuality would be a Steelers loss and a hated Ravens win. That would make Baltimore the #2 seed and push the Steelers all the way down to #5, with the possibility of them falling to #6 if the Jets also win. But, I keep thinking about something...

If the hated Ravens, Patriots, Chiefs, and Jets all win and the Steelers lose, that would make the Steelers the #6 seed. They would then have to play all their games on the road, traveling to Kansas City (a team that has been down on its luck the last few years and surprised a lot of people by winning their division and finishing 11-5), then knowing if they win that game they have to face New England on the road (a 14-2 juggernaut with a fantastic quarterback that crushed the Steelers in November). That sounds an awful lot like 2005, right? I feel the need to remind you that the Steelers faced those same long odds in 2005 and wound up winning three playoff games in a row on their way to a victory in Super Bowl XL (yes, the Steelers won that, but I may have mentioned that at some point before).

So, it's not the end of the world if the Steelers don't win on Sunday, but it would be really nice if they do. That would get them a home playoff game and a bye. The bye is the bigger thing in my mind because Roethlisberger and Troy need some rest if the Steelers are going to make a deep playoff run.

Prediction:
Steelers 34, Browns 3

Steelers-Panthers Preview

I have to say that I'm not sure how to be clever about this. It's a game that the Steelers have to win, it's a game that the Steelers can win, and it's a game that the Steelers should win. If they're going to be the #2 seed in the AFC, this is a game they cannot honk.

The Carolina Panthers are like the Oakland Raiders if the Raiders had a less dynamic running back, a crappier quarterback, and an older defense. This is a bad team. At the NFL level, everyone is talented. I've covered this. We know this. But, the Panthers are less talented than every other team in the league.

I've watched bits and pieces of some of their games throughout the season and what I've witnessed has ranged from horrendous to respectable. I haven't seen them play good football at any point this season. I saw the Bengals, Bills, Buccaneers, and Browns play good football at various points during the season before they played the Steelers. They are all decent teams and have the potential to be good. Carolina doesn't seem to have a ceiling that even reaches as high as good.

I know that the Steelers are going to play this game on four days rest. But, so are the Panthers. It's not like they've had the past three weeks off to rest and prepare. Sure, the Steelers are only 4-3 at home, but... this is a pretty bad team that they're playing on Thursday night.

I think this is a game that they should dominate, but I'm not sure that this is a game that they will dominate. For this reason, I can't predict them to cover.

Prediction:
Steelers 24, Panthers 13

Steelers-Bengals Preview Take Two

See? That rhymes? I'm such a word smith.

I think the Steelers face the same issues coming into this game as they did heading into the last game. The only comfort is that this game is at home... where the Steelers are 3-2 and they're 6-1 on the road. Maybe scratch that comfort.

The Bengals have dropped nine straight, they gave up 49 points to the Bills, and they threw a way a game to New Orleans last week, so they're not exactly swimming in motivation or confidence right now. They're still designed to beat the Steelers and they still hate us more than we hate them -- this would be a bigger win for Cincinnati than it would be for the Steelers -- so that's a problem.

The only thing I keep thinking about is that they may have even less to play for in this game than a 2-10 team ordinarily would. Normally, the Bengals would be playing for pride and for next season. The players that are under contract would be trying to protect their jobs and the would-be free agents would be auditioning for the next team. Everyone would be trying to impress whoever their coach would be next year -- either the new guy after Marvin Lewis gets fired or the coach of their new team.

I don't think there's going to be a 2011 season and I think the players might realize that, too. If they don't have anything to play for this season, then they don't have anything to play for at all in this game, since there won't be a next season next season. They basically just have their pride. When it's right around freezing outside, possibly snowing, and James Farrior is trying to make orphans of your children, pride tends to take a back seat to sitting on a heated bench in a parka and talking with your team mates about your golf game.

They still hate the Steelers, they still have their pride, but I'm thinking they won't have as much fight in them in the second half. If the first half of Sunday's game turns out like the first half of the first game, then the Steelers should be able to put the Bengals away in the second half. I think that they have sufficient motivation, pride, and talent to do that.

Prediction:
Steelers 28, Bengals 7

Steelers-Hated Ravens Preview

I was really going to write a preview and review for the Bills game. Seriously, I was. I was going to try to come up with some clever padding and some extra fluff around the fact that the Steelers needed to win the game and should win the game, then talk about the fact that they narrowly won. But, really, that's so last week.

The past two weeks, the Steelers played the Raiders and the Bills, the hated Ravens played the Panthers and the Bucs. Both teams had to have one eye on this game the whole time, even though the coaches and players will say that they were taking it one week at a time.

This is a huge game. The Steelers have the 2-9 Bengals, the 1-10 Panthers, and 4-7 Browns left, but also have the 9-2 Jets. The hated Ravens have the 5-6 Texans, 2-9 Bengals, and 4-7 Browns left, but also have the defending champion Saints.

Whoever wins this game probably ends up 12-4 with an excellent chance to become the #2 seed in the AFC. Whoever loses it probably ends up 11-5 and a wild card. The Browns and Bengals are out of it, so this game is for the division title.

Baltimore is at home where they are 5-0, but the Steelers are 5-1 on the road and the hated Ravens already won at Heinz Field, so the home team is not invulnerable by any stretch.

Ray Rice was limited in the first game and is Baltimore's best weapon, but the Steelers held Michael Turner, Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden, and Peyton Hillis in check. I think this game will come down to whether or not Joe Flacco can win it. He hasn't done well at all in against the Steelers in the past, but he beat them in October. So there's that.

The thing I keep thinking about is the fact that the Steelers would have won that first game if Ben Roethlisberger was the starting quarterback and he's starting on Sunday night. Roethlisberger would have hit Mike Wallace on a couple of deep balls that Charlie Batch missed and the Steelers would have won 24-17. He's 6-3 in his career against the hated Ravens and Flacco is 2-3 against the Steelers. If it comes down to the quarterbacks, Roethlisberger has the edge.

For the most part, though, the hated Ravens are the hated Ravens because of their hated defense, the hated Ray Lewis, the hated Haloti Ngata, and the hated Ed Reed. This is still a great defense, but it's no longer a defense that scares the hell out of me. It's a defense that likes to blitz and is good at it and Roethlisberger has been vulnerable to the blitz this season, so it's possible that the hated Ravens could break him down on Sunday night. It's also possible that he could bust out of a tackle and hit Wallace deep against a fairly suspect secondary.

If it comes down to a field goal, we know from last week that Shaun Suisham can be trusted on the road. At Heinz Field, I'm still not sure. But, I guess that's tomorrow's problem.

This game is tough to call. Both teams are 8-3. Both teams lost to the Patriots. Both teams snuck by the Bills in overtime. Both teams have tough, physical defenses. Both teams have great quarterbacks and like to run the ball. Both teams hate each other. A lot.

I keep thinking that holding calls and roughing the passer calls, which have plagued the Steelers in recent weeks, might help decide the outcome of the game. That concerns me, but good teams overcome penalties to win.

But, I keep coming back to the fact that the Steelers would have won that game in October if Ben Roethlisberger was under center.

You can take out home field advantage, because it hasn't mattered in the past and neither team thinks they will win or lose based on the venue. You can take out emotion, because both teams are fired up. You can take out motivation, because both teams understand that this game basically decides the division title. You can take out the running game, because both teams can and will take that away. If either team is able to run the ball, the team that is able to accomplish that feat will win. You can take out kickers, because both kickers can be trusted. You can take out special teams, because the Steelers have been solid in that area and the hated Ravens don't have a major threat.

Once you start taking away stuff, you find out that it comes down to quarterbacks. I trust Roethlisberger over Flacco.

Prediction:

Steelers 21, Ravens 17

Steelers-Patriots Review

There are two silver linings, as I see it. The first is that, under NFL guidelines, the Steelers will only be charged with one loss for Sunday night's game. Even though they performed worse than bad, they can still only get one loss from that game. They can't get like a loss and a tie or a credit for another loss that strikes a future win off the books or anything. Just one loss, so that's good. They deserve two or three for that performance, but they are only on the books for one.

The other good news is that everyone else in the division lost, so it's not like the Steelers lost any ground in the division. They may have had their confidence shattered and many fans may still be shell-shocked -- I know I was still pretty angry about the game as of last night, but I'm feeling less angry today -- but, as far as the division standings are concerned, basically nothing happened last week.

Other thoughts are not quite so optimistic. The Steelers just played very, very poorly on Sunday night. There weren't serious problems with their scheme, the Patriots did not provide the rest of the league with a "blueprint" to beat the Steelers, it was just a horrid performance on all fronts. The good news there is that, hopefully, the Steelers can just put the game behind them and focus on this week. There aren't wholesale changes that need to be made to the systems on offense and defense. The bad news there is that the, "Hey, guys, do you think you could just play better? Like, a lot better?" strategy doesn't usually work. Either the players play well or they don't. Just saying, "Play better," a lot doesn't make them better. If that worked, then there would be no bad teams in the league.

The Steelers aren't a bad team by any stretch. They're just not executing well of late on offense and defense. They've had a bunch of injuries and the offensive line may not be able to recover. The defensive line misses Aaron Smith and Brett Kiesel in a big way. The offense, in general, is pretty broken and maybe thinking that throwing Ben Roethlisberger back in there would fix everything was like having a child to try to save a bad marriage. Losing Max Starks hurts the team, but at least they're getting healthier at all positions.

The defense didn't fall apart or start sucking overnight, they just didn't play well on Sunday. The idea that the way to beat the Steelers is to abandon the running game and pick them apart in the passing game underneath is not a new idea. Various teams -- especially the Patriots -- have used this strategy very effectively since the turn of the century. Many of the guys the Steelers have on defense have been in the line-up since the turn of the century, so it's unrealistic to think that their odds of actually stopping that strategy would improve with age.

They did a great job of not getting beat deep and punishing receivers underneath in 2008. They did a decent job on that front for most of 2009. The first few games this year, they did an exceptional job. Now, either they're starting to show their age, the injuries are starting to catch up with them, or both.

They're an old team that doesn't have a lot of quality depth. We knew that coming in, but we didn't know if key injuries were going to strike key positions and when those injuries were going to hit. Well, we're only nine games in and there have already been a couple, with the most notable ones to Smith and Starks.

I'm not declaring that the season is over, but I do think that all us Steeler fans now need to adjust our expectations for the season. When they started out hot, the defense looked unstoppable, and we just needed to wait for Ben to come back to have a complete team, a home playoff game and a first round bye looked realistic. They're still well-positioned and they still have three division games left on the schedule to create some separation, but Sunday night really hurt their chances. They also need to recover from the injuries they've suffered thus far and the reserves need to step up now that they're starters. They need to avoid more key injuries, which is pretty much impossible.

All of these things could conceivably happen. This team could have learned a thing or two from their collapse last season. But, they could be waiting for the other shoe to drop. They could have psyched themselves out so bad trying to avoid a collapse that a collapse is now unavoidable.

November is when you either start to pull away and establish yourself or when you collapse. In 2008, the Steelers pulled away and established. In 2009, they collapsed. I'm not sure what 2010 holds in store for the team, but I would put better odds on a collapse (with more injuries) than I would on a pull away/establish.

Regardless of whether or not they make the playoffs, this is not a complete team at this point. They are a damaged, splintered team and the AFC is too stacked on too many fronts for them to get very far in the playoffs, even if they were to make it. That could change if some pieces come together and reserves step up, but I doubt that it will happen. I'm obviously hoping that it will happen, but it's doubtful.

My father in-law thinks that they're done. He sees another late-season collapse and his official prediction is 9-7, with the Steelers missing the playoffs. Now that it's on the Internet, it's written in stone. I intend to hold him to that prediction, regardless of what happens.

I would say that 9-7 or 10-6 is a fair prediction at this point. But, I guess we'll see.

In other news, the Steelers cut Jeff Reed. I know he was having a bad season thus far, he was inconsistent at best, and he was 0 for 4 from 40-49 yards, which is a range where he's usually automatic. But... I keep thinking they cut him because of his mouth and his antics, not his foot. Sure, I guess there's a joke in there about him putting his foot in his mouth, but we're better than that.

I think it's a mistake for the balance of the season, but I also think that it's going to turn out to be a good move in the long term. Even though he was in a funk this year, he was still about as reliable as any other kicker in the league at Heinz Field, if not more accurate. The Steelers are going to be involved in more close games and they play four of their next seven at home (where they're surprisingly 2-2 and 4-1 on the road). They could've used Reed's accuracy and familiarity with Heinz Field for the rest of the year, then cut him loose at the end of the season.

Suisham -- I ended up Googling just his last name because I couldn't remember if his first name was Shawn, Shaun, or Todd -- isn't an improvement over Reed. He doesn't have a reputation as a clutch kicker and he doesn't have as much experience at Heinz Field. I mean, no one has as much experience at Heinz Field as Reed, but Suisham has played most of his career in the NFC, so he has less than a lot of guys that are out there.

He turns 29 in December, so maybe this is a decent long term move if he works out. I just don't think he's going to work out well enough for it to be worth it long term. So, in addtion to questions about the offensive line, whether or not Hines Ward will retire, whether or not half the defense will retire, and the whereabouts of Roethlisberger's penis, the 2011 offseason will involve the added question of who the Steelers will pick up to replace Reed.

I'm thinking it's a Vulva situation and they draft some dude in the fourth or fifth round. That's a good long term solution if that guy works out and it's a pretty crappy next few years -- Kris Brown, I'm looking at you -- if the guy doesn't.

I guess we will see.

Steelers-Patriots Preview

I'm not sure what to make of this game.

On the one hand, the Patriots aren't the same offense since they traded Randy Moss. They're more of a short passing team that doesn't have a deep threat, so the defense isn't afraid to crowd the line of scrimmage. The Steelers have gotten considerably better at crowding the line -- Ike Taylor and Bryant McFadden are more comfortable playing tighter on the receiver than they are giving up a cushion and they're more effective that way -- and they haven't had given up tons of yards underneath over the past three seasons. Tom Brady used to shred the Steelers by dinking and dunking his was down the field, but I don't think he can do that Sunday night.

On the other hand, the NFL has been big on fining James Harrison and he's really the enforcer underneath. Receivers know that he will straight up murder them if they get near him. But, with all the fines he's had to pay, he's playing with less intensity. I think that Lawrence Timmons can still get the job of enforcer done, but Harrison's much better at it. In addition, Brady has used the short pass/smart decisions strategy to crush the Steelers defense again and again this season. Teams realize that they can't run against the Steelers, so they just throw it. Brady has no problems keeping at it until the defense flinches and his receivers start getting tons of yards after the catch.

On the one hand, the New England defense kinda sucks. They have smart, savvy players, but they used to have a bunch of smart, savvy players that were actually good. Right now? They're kinda just smart and savvy. So, they'll make a big play when they need to with the game on the line, but they won't be able to out-execute many people play-to-play.

On the other hand, that means that the Steelers actually need to execute, which has been an issue. If they can execute on offense, I think they'll be able to gain yards in chunks, which is how Bruce Arians likes it. But, Bill Belichick's strategy on defense is to take away an offense's two best weapons and make the other guys beat him. That means Mike Wallace and Rashard Mendenhall will be taken out of the game and Hines Ward, Heath Miller, and, Randle-El need to win this game. Can they do it? Sure, anything's possible through Jesus. But... likely? Not as much.

On the one hand, the Patriots got crushed by Cleveland last week. Crushed. By Cleveland. Now, the Browns are starting to look like a better team, but they're still the Browns. Good teams don't get smoked by Cleveland by 20 points.

On the other hand, it didn't work out so well for the Steelers the last time they played someone on a Sunday night that got smoked by Cleveland the previous week. If Bruce Arians and Dick LeBeau try what worked for the Browns last week, New England will have already adjusted and it won't work. The Patriots players are super angry about what happened in Week 9 and they've been working all week to fix it. New England is not the kind of team that loses in back to back weeks.

On the one hand, the Steelers have a pretty big special teams advantage, which is weird to say. Emmanuel Sanders is starting to look like a decent return guy, we have Vulva, and our coverage guys are significantly better than their counterparts on the Patriots.

On the other hand, Jeff Reed has been inconsistent to say the least. This is going to be a tight game and the Steelers are going to need to count on his right leg. Can they? I'm not sure.

On the one hand, the line opened at 5 and is now at 4.5, so not a lot of people are taking the Patriots. Seven of eight of the experts on ESPN.com picked the Steelers over the Pats.

On the other hand, when I was talking to Weidman and Topher about this last night at the bar, we had two predictions for the Steelers and one for the Patriots. With three homers in attendance, there should have been three for the Steelers, but by a low margin of victory. And... I should have been more confident in my pick. That's below, but here's one other thing to consider...

I think this is going to be a tight game, but I think the crowd is going to be the difference. At the Baltimore game, people were crazy ba-nuts insane and that was Week 4. After the Steelers had played three of their first four at home. Tomorrow night? You'll have 65,000 drunk yinzers -- myself and Weidman included -- that will have had all day to pre-game and haven't been able to see a Steelers home game in a month. In an entire month. Plus 65,000 drunk, crazy yinzers. Against the Patriots. Both teams are 6-2 and most Steeler fans hate the Patriots about as much as they hate the hated Ravens. They are going to be fired up. Fired up is probably not an apt description and falls way short, so they are going to be super duper crazy insane ba-nuts fired up on a stick. I think they carry the team to victory.

On the one hand, I'm going to the game and I'm 12-3 over my lifetime.

On the other hand, I'm 2-3 in my last five games, which is not exactly awesome.

On the one hand, I predicted the exact score of the Cleveland game.

On the other hand, my predictions have sucked hard this year. When I've predicted a win, the Steelers have lost. When I've predicted a loss, the Steelers have won.

So, even though I think the crowd will carry the Steelers to victory, I need to do my part.

Prediction:
Patriots 28, Steelers 24

Steelers-Saints Preview

Here's the thing...

I know the Saints are a good team. I am aware of the fact that they have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. I know that they won the Super Bowl last year. I know that they are well-coached and have a ton of veteran leadership.

I also know that they lost last week. To Cleveland. To Cleveland. At home. I know that they're currently 4-3, but the only good team they've played thus far is Atlanta and they lost to Atlanta. Sure, they beat the 4-2 Buccaneers, but so did the Steelers. The Steelers also beat Atlanta.

Their other three wins are against Minnesota (bad), San Francisco (really bad), and Carolina (super bad), and those were all close games against teams that range from bad to super bad. They also lost to Steelers West (also bad) by ten points. I believe that I mentioned that they lost to Cleveland at home by 13.

I know that the Steelers are banged up on defense, but I will take a banged up Steeler defense over a completely healthy Cleveland defense every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

I believe that the Saints are struggling for two reasons:

1. They really, really miss their running game with Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush being hurt.
2. They kinda got lucky on defense last year.

For number one, the New Orleans offense has a lot more exotic looks and formations than the Steelers offense, but it's basically the same idea: Establish the run and get chunks of yards off of play action. The issue there -- as Steeler fans discovered last season -- is that defenses don't care about play action and you don't get those chunks of yards if you can't run the ball. You may be able to force some chunks of yards to happen through persistence, but you'll also have a lot of turnovers and incompletions mixed in with the success. That's where the Saints are right now.

The Steelers were able to overcome that in 2008 with an outstanding defense and were able to keep the damage to a minimum with a defense that played hard for the first 50 minutes or so in 2009. The issue with the Saints this season is that their defense isn't as good in 2010 -- or as lucky -- as they were in 2009.

The New Orleans defense recorded a ton of turnovers in 2009 and either scored on defense or set their offense up to score. The thing about turnovers is that you can force them, but a lot of it is just how the ball bounces or how dumb the guy with the ball feels like being. Saints defensive coordinator likes to blitz a lot. Then blitz some more. Then mix in some blitzes when he's done blitzing just to mix things up.

Sometimes, you blitz a quarterback and he does something dumb or you get a sack. Sometimes, you blitz a quarterback and he makes a big play. That's the contract you enter into when Gregg Williams is your defensive coordinator.

That contract paid off big time last season, as quarterbacks decided to be dumb more than they decided to make a big play. Sometimes, the ball tipped off a receiver's hand because the quarterback rushed the throw. Most times, that tipped ball went to a New Orleans defender. That's not happening us much this year and the defense is suffering.

The best way to pressure Ben Roethlisberger is to pressure him up the middle and contain the edges. When he is faced with this situation, sometimes he'll take a sack. Sometimes he'll do something really dumb (like against Miami last week). Sometimes he'll bust out of a tackle and make a big play. I just think he makes more big plays than he takes sacks and makes dumb mistakes on Sunday night. Blitzing is a high risk, high reward proposition. The Saints reaped the rewards in 2009 and they're realizing the risks this season.

With Corey Ivy and Ladell Betts at tailback and a high risk defense, I just don't think New Orleans has what it takes to beat the Steelers.

Vegas agrees. The line opened with the Saints favored by 3 or 4. There must have been a ton of action for the Steelers, because the line is now Pittsburgh by 1. I think the Steelers cover easily.

The only thing that worries me is that I'm not worried.

Prediction: Steelers 28, Saints 17

The best

Steelers vs. Browns Preview

C'mon. It's the Browns.

I know that they've been close in every game this year. I know they've fought hard. I know they're a young team with something to prove and they just beat the Bengals and hung tough against the Falcons. I know they hate us more than we hate them. I know they beat us when they were 1-12 last season and we needed to win to stay in the playoff hunt.

But... it's the Browns.

I also know that Colt McCoy will be starting, Peyton Hillis is gimpy, and they don't have any legitimate receiving threats. The defense has been (mostly) unstoppable this year, so they should crush Cleveland.

The Browns are 14 point underdogs (the line started at 15.5, so Vegas is obviously trying to push the action to Cleveland) and that has to upset them. But, the last time I talked about an upsetting point spread, the Steelers beat Tampa 38-10.

I think the defense will be fine and this is the lightest challenge they have faced thus far this season. I think the real x-factor here is Ben Roethlisberger.

He's started two Super Bowls (XL and XLIII, which the Steelers won), a number of playoff games, and a number of games where he was returning from a serious injury (or bike crash), but this may be the most important start of Roethlisberger's career.

He knows the fans are mad at him. He knows that he needs to make it up to them. He knows that the best way to do that is to go out and destroy the Browns in his first start back. Then, he needs to keep winning and keep playing well. He also needs to stay out of trouble and keep Lil' Roethlisberger in his pants, but I think we all knew that.

The team weathered those first four games and did very well. It's now time for Roethlisberger to take over and prove that he's an elite quarterback that makes this team significantly better. I think he can do that. I think he knows what's at stake on Sunday and I think he will be able to handle it and handle it well.

Really, the only thing that scares me is Josh Cribbs. If that dude blows up and/or Cleveland gets a defensive touchdown, the Steelers could be in for a long day. Even if those things do happen, though, I still think the Steelers win, just not by as much. I think they know that there's too much on the line to come out flat. I don't think they come out flat. I think they come out fired up and that makes all the difference.

Prediction:

Steelers 28, Browns 10

Olympic Hockey Predictions

First of all, I have to say that that was a fantastic game on Sunday. Remember that one five minute stretch in the Stanley Cup final last year where there were no penalties, no stoppages, and no commercials and the Red Wings and Penguins just got to play hockey? Remember how awesome that was? That was what this was like, but for the entire game. It was amazing. OK, part of the fantabulousness of it was that we won, but that was just a high quality hockey game from start to finish.

I was freaking out. I hadn't had a sportsgasm like that since Super Bowl XLIII (which the Steelers won, btw) and I was unable to contain my excitement. I cannot imagine what I'll be like if these two teams face each other this coming Sunday. I think I need to prepare myself.

I'm basically assuming that Canada will beat Slovakia on Friday and that we'll beat Finland. It's dangerous to assume, but the money line for the US beating Finland is -170, with the Finland beating the US at +150, so those are pretty decent odds. Canada is -200 to win the gold and Slovakia is +1200, which means that pretty much everyone thinks Canada is going to the gold medal game and there are good odds that the US will.

I think that Canada is too angry to lose. We have awakened the sleeping giant and his wrath will be horrible. I think that there are too many guys on our squad that want another piece of Canada too badly to lose to Finland. So, Finland and Slovakia play for the bronze, the US and Canada play for the gold.

Here's the thing about that: I'm very, very, very, very hopeful that we'll beat Canada and win the gold, but I don't think it's going to happen. For a number of reasons.

1. "If we play ten times, they may win nine." That means we already won our won game, right?
2. Sleeping giant awakened, wrath horrible.
3. They have stars at every position. The US has a whole bunch of very good players, but they don't have any great players, guys that can take over a game, out on the ice.
4. They have a pretty steep homefield advantage. Like, a crazy homefield advantage. Like, ten times more intense than Lake Placid homefield advantage.
5. In order to win the gold, the US would need to win all six of their Olympic hockey games in a span of 12 days. We got a day's rest for beating Canada and everyone else has had to play games on back-to-back days at some point in the tournament, but the pressure of trying to win six games at this level of competition -- especially with how great the first game was -- has to be almost unbearable.
6. Think of how fast and intense that first game was. Then multiply it by 80,000,000 crazy Canadians, two days of hype, and a worldwide audience. The level of speed and intensity that will be brought on Sunday favors the Canadians because they're more talented.
7. If the US has a chance to win, this will be a close game. If it goes to overtime and is still tied, that means there will be a shootout. If there is a shootout, Mike Babcock can keep rolling Sidney Crosby out there and tell him to win the gold. That. Is. Scary.
8. You saw what they did to Russia, right? That was a deep, talented squad with plenty of star power of its own. Team Canada smoked the Russians 7-3 on Wednesday and, shockingly, it wasn't even that close.
9. We beat up on Brodeur in the first game. Now Luongo is between the pipes. That's a big difference. I'm not saying we can't chase Luongo and get Brodeur back in there -- or possibly Fleury -- but I'm saying that Luongo is a different goalie that brings a different set of skills to the table.
   
10. This is a veteran Olympic team. We're young and inexperienced and, in situations like a gold medal game in front of a hostile crowd, that's going to make a difference.

However, we do have some things going in our favor.

1. Ryan Miller has been playing out of his mind this entire tournament. He stopped 42 shots against Canada the last time these teams played. He is the one great player that we will have on our roster on Sunday. He is the one guy for Team USA that can take over this game. If he does, we stand an excellent chance of winning.
2. Our defensemen are far superior to theirs. Our defensemen are amazing. They block shots, they cover the net, they skate back like nobody's business, and they can score. Having Rafalsky alone gives us an advantage. When you add in Orpik, Jack Johnson, and Ryan Whitney in there, it gets downright unfair.
3. We don't have a star, so we don't have that "one guy" that they can key on. A defenseman (Rafalski) scored two goals in the first game. An unheralded guy like Ryan Malone stood toe-to-toe with the cavalcade of stars for Canada and held his own.
4. If there's one group of guys that can ignore all the big names, the insane homefield advantage, the pressure, the world stage, and the fact that they'll be prohibitive underdogs going into this game, it's this group of guys. They're too young, too dumb, too tough, and, quite frankly, too good and confident to let all the outside factors get to them. They just want to play hockey and win.
5. As much as the Canadians will deflect it, as much as the Americans will deflect it, and as many times as most analysts (who are primarily Canadian) will say that it doesn't matter that we won the first game... it matters. When they line up on Sunday and the puck drops, all the guys on the American side will know that they can beat this team. All the guys on the Canadian side will be thinking about what will happen if they lose again. Deep down, we know that win meant something to our guys, and deep down, that loss meant something to their guys.
6. Do you believe in miracles? Yes. Yes, I believe in miracles.

Still... that's ten reasons for Canada and only six for the US. Really, it's five for the US because the last one isn't a reason so much as it is a belief system. And hope.

My buddy Dan and I were talking today about what we felt America's chances were. Here's how he broke it down:

Gold: 10%
Silver: 60%
Bronze: 25%
No Medal: 5%

But, we decided that, if Canada should somehow lose to Slovakia on Friday, the percentages would adjust thusly:

Gold: 50%
Silver: 35%
Bronze: 15%
No Medal: 0%

So... hope that Slovakia has some upset in them.

I think Canada is too strong, too experienced, too angry, and just too damn good to lose this game. They're just too talented to not win the gold. The only way they get the silver is if Miller takes the game over, our defensemen start to muscle in on their stars late in the game, and we're able to hold on.

I hope we win. I believe we can win. My heart says yes, but my brain says no. The good news is that my predictions have sucked something awful for about year now, so here's hoping I'm wrong.