Showing posts with label hockey playoffs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label hockey playoffs. Show all posts
Wednesday, April 24, 2013
Playoff Beard Rules 2013
I took some flack in years past because these rules make it kind of easy to grow and maintain a playoff beard. That's the way they're intended to be. Really, this post should be called, "A Practical Guide to Growing and Maintaining a Playoff Beard," but that title sucks. So, just keep that in mind.
Note, though, that I didn't say that it was a guide for casual fans, because that's not how we roll here at Steelers N At. You need to go all-in with your fandom, but still remain employed and desirable to the opposite sex. Or, same sex. Not that there's anything wrong with that.
1. If you currently have a beard, it's OK.
I normally have a beard, but I trim it down before the Stanley Cup Playoffs start. The key is to take pride in your growth and the fact that you're supporting your team. As your beard grows, their chances to hoist Lord Stanley's Cup grows.
Addendum: If your team needs an extra-special push in the postseason this year, then you should go the extra mile and shave your current beard off. This is a big time sacrifice for most guys with beards and the hockey gods will reward your sacrifice with playoff victories.
That's why I shaved my beard off before the playoffs started the past two postseasons. The act of not having a beard when you're used to one is a painful process, but not quite as painful as the transitional period between "clean shaven" and "actually having a respectable beard." The hockey gods appreciate that sacrifice as well. You just have to remember that you're contributing to something larger than yourself.
Weidman Addendum: Those of us that maintain beards of three or more inches risk angering the hockey gods by fully shaving the plumage before the playoffs. Our sacrifice instead is resisting the urge this time of year to shed our winter coats and slim down to something sportier like a goatee or conquistador stash. All other rules of trimming and maintenance still apply.
Please note that the Pens got knocked out in the first round the past two postseasons, which means personal sacrifice by fans might not mean much when it comes to affecting the actual results of games.
Doesn't mean I'm not shaving the beard off this year in preparation for the playoffs.
2. Neckbeards are not cool.
Neckbeards are unattractive, itchy, and basically the equivalent of slapping God in the face for giving you a beautiful gift.
The idea is that God gave us power of attorney over the beasts of the land, the sea, and the air. Earth is our sanctuary and our bodies are our temples. If we let hair grow on our necks, nature wins. We need to seize power of attorney and shave it down.
Also, if you look at NHL players, they're not rocking the Kyle Orton Classic. They keep a balance between order and chaos by holding their neck hair in check. They're also handsomely compensated for looking like hobos during the playoffs. I doubt that Pascal Dupuis -- though he seems like a hell of a nice guy -- would risk losing his job or looking like crap so that you could get a promotion.
Additionally, a lot of hockey fans have these things. They're called jobs. A regular beard is usually acceptable, but a neck beard pushes the envelope. I love the Penguins. I love the Steelers. I love the Pirates. I love job security more.
And I'm sure we can all appreciate the relevance of that now.
I'll be shaving my neck once a week, every Sunday, starting this Sunday.
3. The mustache is almost fair game.If I kiss my wife (or significant other) and they make a face like a very small rat crawled up their nose and they need to expel it at all costs, then it's time to do some work on the old mustache.
I'm not saying trim it to douchebag levels (the 1 setting on most trimmers). I'm not saying that you should go all Civil War and just grow chops. I'm not saying you should go all Alternative Rocker and forgo the mustache. I'm saying this... the idea is to support your team in body and spirit, but not destroy your love life in the process.
Therefore, wife wins over hockey.
I'm sorry. I understand that this makes me a pansy. But, I also doubt that Jarome Iginla would make changes in his life that would lead to him having issues banging his wife just for you. Not saying he's a jerk, just putting things in perspective.
4. You are not allowed to make a spectacle of your playoff beard.Don't tell anyone that you're growing one. Don't write blog posts about it (unless, you know, you're writing a guide about it... OK, I made that up to cover myself). Don't bring it up at happy hour.
Hockey is a sport of unwritten rules and silent acceptance. It isn't a sport for showboating or celebrating, which is why Malkin got in trouble for switching from the "arm pump, then hug teammates" paradigm.
The neck beard follows the same rules. Do not waiver from them.
5. You are not allowed to complain about your playoff beard.
Don't say, "Wow. This is getting out of hand. I can't wait until I can trim it or cut it off." Don't say, "I can't wait until the playoffs are over so that I can trim this or cut it off." Don't even say, "I can't wait until the Penguins win the Cup so I can trim this or cut it off."
If you're the kind of person that is superstitious enough to grow a playoff beard, you're the kind of person that is superstitious enough to believe that such statements can sink your team.
I actually said, "I can't wait until the Penguins win the Cup so I can trim this," before the Final started against Detroit in 2008 and I will never forgive myself.
6. No trimming the beard itself.
Last year, I made a special dispensation for someone on Facebook and said that they were allowed to trim their beard between finals. I think that was a mistake. I've given you the slack to not grow a neck beard. I've given you the slack to trim the mustache. If you're allowed to trim the whole thing, then why not just have a regular beard? If you're allowed to just have a regular beard, what makes that a playoff beard, specifically?
So... mustache trim and no neck beard only. No trimming between rounds, no exceptions.
7. Have fun with it.
This is something that many sports fans (myself definitely included) forget. Sports are supposed to be fun. Sports are supposed to be an escape.
It's the playoffs. Not everything is called. Not everything requires a stoppage of play.
But, also remember that your team is counting on you. So, don't blow it.
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
Pens-Flyers Preview
When the seeding was finalized and I knew the Pens were going to play the Flyers in the first round, I had a prediction: Pens in six. My reasoning? Just because. That's it. That's all I had. I thought about it some more and read some analysis online, but I'm still not completely sure.
Here's why I'm confident:
The Penguins have three solid scoring lines and they're probably the best team up the middle across all four lines in the NHL. They finished the season first in scoring. They were fourth on the power play and third in the penalty kill. They had 50 wins for only the second time in franchise history. They finished with 100 points for only the seventh time in franchise history, the fourth time in the last five seasons. That means all those great Lemieux and Jagr teams only had three seasons with 100 points. I'm not here to say that the New Era Pens are better than the Old Era Pens, I'm just saying that it's impressive.
They have a ton of talent, a ton of playoff experience, and a proven postseason goaltender in Marc-Andre Fleury. Dan Bylsma is a pretty good coach.
They have two of the best players in the world and the best first line in the NHL. One of the things they were missing last postseason is that one line that strikes fear in the heart of their opponents. This year, they have that line. They also have Sidney Crosby playing on the second line. Jordan Staal has been up and down anchoring the third line, but I he has the kind of potential (I'm still prepared to bank on potential, at least for another year) to be a game changer.
They also play great defense when everyone's healthy. Kris Letang has been outstanding when he's been in the lineup. Everyone focuses on the offensive side of things, but the offense tends to overshadow the fact that, for the most part, the Pens are a solid defensive team. They have defensemen that can get back on an odd man rush and they have defensemen that can score. They finished second in the league in goal differential and that speaks to the fact that they can keep the score down as well as put up points.
Everything points to a deep playoff run, which makes me nervous.
Here's why I'm nervous:
Hate to admit it, but the Flyers have themselves a great team. They finished with 103 points, only five behind the Pens. They were second in goals scored, sixth in the power play, and 17th in the penalty kill. Not quite as impressive as the numbers the Penguins put up, but still very nice. In addition, Philly has done a great job of converting on the power play against the Pens and they've been solid on the penalty kill as well. That means you can throw the numbers right out the window and focus on individual match-ups and determination when the puck drops for real.
Philadelphia scares me more than any other team in the Eastern bracket. I was hoping the Pens would win their division and the number one seed so that someone else would draw the Flyers in the first round. The best way to beat the Penguins is to slow them down, beat them up, and make them play the game your way. Not many teams have been able to do that this season, but Philly does it better than anyone. They're not intimidated by the big names and high-powered offense that the Pens bring to the table. They've played a lot of tight games against the Pens this season and won most of them. Come playoff time, all games are tight. If the Flyers manage to pull out a few squeakers, the season is over.
This makes me nervous and this makes me nervous. Ten out of 12 ESPN analysts picked the Pens to win the series and ten out of 16 NHL analysts picked them to win it all. There's a lot of leadership in the dressing room, including Bylsma, that's trying to ensure that this team isn't satisfied with popular opinion. But, it's possible that the Penguins could enter this series overconfident and that could be their undoing. The Flyers are too good and too dangerous to be overlooked.
On the other hand, this team wants to bring the Cup back to Pittsburgh and Philly is in the way. They aren't satisfied and they are motivated. If they make it past the Flyers in this round, they can make a very deep run. Will they make it past Philly?
I think that comes down to two things: Special teams and goaltending. For me, The Flower is a constant. He's a known quantity and a proven performer. If he takes a step back or Ilya Bryzgalov takes a step up, Philly can win this series. I don't think that either will happen, but it's possible.
Special teams means NO FIVE FORWARDS ON THE POWER PLAY and means that the Flyers draw a lot of minor penalties. Since it's the playoffs, the refs will call the games looser, which means the Penguins cannot retaliate. It also means that the Pens need to convert when they get the opportunity. I think that they can. If they convert at a higher rate than the regular season, this series could end early. If it's a wash and goaltending remains constant, Pens win. If the Flyers are able to win on special teams, regardless of how Fleury plays, they'll take the series.
I think the Pens make the plays they need to make. Why? Just... because.
Prediction:
Pens in Six
Here's why I'm confident:
The Penguins have three solid scoring lines and they're probably the best team up the middle across all four lines in the NHL. They finished the season first in scoring. They were fourth on the power play and third in the penalty kill. They had 50 wins for only the second time in franchise history. They finished with 100 points for only the seventh time in franchise history, the fourth time in the last five seasons. That means all those great Lemieux and Jagr teams only had three seasons with 100 points. I'm not here to say that the New Era Pens are better than the Old Era Pens, I'm just saying that it's impressive.
They have a ton of talent, a ton of playoff experience, and a proven postseason goaltender in Marc-Andre Fleury. Dan Bylsma is a pretty good coach.
They have two of the best players in the world and the best first line in the NHL. One of the things they were missing last postseason is that one line that strikes fear in the heart of their opponents. This year, they have that line. They also have Sidney Crosby playing on the second line. Jordan Staal has been up and down anchoring the third line, but I he has the kind of potential (I'm still prepared to bank on potential, at least for another year) to be a game changer.
They also play great defense when everyone's healthy. Kris Letang has been outstanding when he's been in the lineup. Everyone focuses on the offensive side of things, but the offense tends to overshadow the fact that, for the most part, the Pens are a solid defensive team. They have defensemen that can get back on an odd man rush and they have defensemen that can score. They finished second in the league in goal differential and that speaks to the fact that they can keep the score down as well as put up points.
Everything points to a deep playoff run, which makes me nervous.
Here's why I'm nervous:
Hate to admit it, but the Flyers have themselves a great team. They finished with 103 points, only five behind the Pens. They were second in goals scored, sixth in the power play, and 17th in the penalty kill. Not quite as impressive as the numbers the Penguins put up, but still very nice. In addition, Philly has done a great job of converting on the power play against the Pens and they've been solid on the penalty kill as well. That means you can throw the numbers right out the window and focus on individual match-ups and determination when the puck drops for real.
Philadelphia scares me more than any other team in the Eastern bracket. I was hoping the Pens would win their division and the number one seed so that someone else would draw the Flyers in the first round. The best way to beat the Penguins is to slow them down, beat them up, and make them play the game your way. Not many teams have been able to do that this season, but Philly does it better than anyone. They're not intimidated by the big names and high-powered offense that the Pens bring to the table. They've played a lot of tight games against the Pens this season and won most of them. Come playoff time, all games are tight. If the Flyers manage to pull out a few squeakers, the season is over.
This makes me nervous and this makes me nervous. Ten out of 12 ESPN analysts picked the Pens to win the series and ten out of 16 NHL analysts picked them to win it all. There's a lot of leadership in the dressing room, including Bylsma, that's trying to ensure that this team isn't satisfied with popular opinion. But, it's possible that the Penguins could enter this series overconfident and that could be their undoing. The Flyers are too good and too dangerous to be overlooked.
On the other hand, this team wants to bring the Cup back to Pittsburgh and Philly is in the way. They aren't satisfied and they are motivated. If they make it past the Flyers in this round, they can make a very deep run. Will they make it past Philly?
I think that comes down to two things: Special teams and goaltending. For me, The Flower is a constant. He's a known quantity and a proven performer. If he takes a step back or Ilya Bryzgalov takes a step up, Philly can win this series. I don't think that either will happen, but it's possible.
Special teams means NO FIVE FORWARDS ON THE POWER PLAY and means that the Flyers draw a lot of minor penalties. Since it's the playoffs, the refs will call the games looser, which means the Penguins cannot retaliate. It also means that the Pens need to convert when they get the opportunity. I think that they can. If they convert at a higher rate than the regular season, this series could end early. If it's a wash and goaltending remains constant, Pens win. If the Flyers are able to win on special teams, regardless of how Fleury plays, they'll take the series.
I think the Pens make the plays they need to make. Why? Just... because.
Prediction:
Pens in Six
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
Playoff Beard Rules 2012
I took some flack last year because these rules make it kind of easy to grow and maintain a playoff beard. That's the way they're intended to be. Really, this post should be called, "A Practical Guide to Growing and Maintaining a Playoff Beard," but that title sucks. So, just keep that in mind.
Note, though, that I didn't say that it was a guide for casual fans, because that's not how we roll here at Steelers N At. You need to go all-in with your fandom, but still remain employed and desirable to the opposite sex. Or, same sex. Not that there's anything wrong with that.
1. If you currently have a beard, it's OK.
I normally have a beard, but I trim it down before the Stanley Cup Playoffs start. The key is to take pride in your growth and the fact that you're supporting your team. As your beard grows, their chances to hoist Lord Stanley's Cup grows.
Addendum: If your team needs an extra-special push in the postseason this year, then you should go the extra mile and shave your current beard off. This is a big time sacrifice for most guys with beards and the hockey gods will reward your sacrifice with playoff victories.
That's why I shaved my beard off before the playoffs started last season. The act of not having a beard when you're used to one is a painful process, but not quite as painful as the transitional period between "clean shaven" and "actually having a respectable beard." The hockey gods appreciate that sacrifice as well. You just have to remember that you're contributing to something larger than yourself.
Weidman Addendum: Those of us that maintain beards of three or more inches risk angering the hockey gods by fully shaving the plumage before the playoffs. Our sacrifice instead is resisting the urge this time of year to shed our winter coats and slim down to something sportier like a goatee or conquistador stash. All other rules of trimming and maintenance still apply.
Please note that the Pens got knocked out in the first round last season, which means personal sacrifice by fans might not mean much when it comes to affecting the actual results of games.
2. Neckbeards are not cool.
Neckbeards are unattractive, itchy, and basically the equivalent of slapping God in the face for giving you a beautiful gift.
The idea is that God gave us power of attorney over the beasts of the land, the sea, and the air. Earth is our sanctuary and our bodies are our temples. If we let hair grow on our necks, nature wins. We need to seize power of attorney and shave it down.
Also, if you look at NHL players, they're not rocking the Kyle Orton Classic. They keep a balance between order and chaos by holding their neck hair in check. They're also handsomely compensated for looking like hobos during the playoffs. I doubt that Pascal Dupuis -- though he seems like a hell of a nice guy -- would risk losing his job or looking like crap so that you could get a promotion.
Additionally, a lot of hockey fans have these things. They're called jobs. A regular beard is usually acceptable, but a neck beard pushes the envelope. I love the Penguins. I love the Steelers. I love the Pirates. I love job security more.
And I'm sure we can all appreciate the relevance of that now.
3. The mustache is almost fair game.
If I kiss my wife (or significant other) and they make a face like a very small rat crawled up their nose and they need to expel it at all costs, then it's time to do some work on the old mustache.
I'm not saying trim it to douchebag levels (the 1 setting on most trimmers). I'm not saying that you should go all Civil War and just grow chops. I'm not saying you should go all Alternative Rocker and forgo the mustache. I'm saying this... the idea is to support your team in body and spirit, but not destroy your love life in the process.
Therefore, wife wins over hockey.
I'm sorry. I understand that this makes me a pansy. But, I also doubt that Matt Cooke would make changes in his life that would lead to him having issues banging his wife just for you. Not saying he's a jerk, just putting things in perspective.
4. You are not allowed to make a spectacle of your playoff beard.
Don't tell anyone that you're growing one. Don't write blog posts about it (unless, you know, you're writing a guide about it... OK, I made that up to cover myself). Don't bring it up at happy hour.
Hockey is a sport of unwritten rules and silent acceptance. It isn't a sport for showboating or celebrating, which is why Malkin got in trouble for switching from the "arm pump, then hug teammates" paradigm.
The neck beard follows the same rules. Do not waiver from them.
5. You are not allowed to complain about your playoff beard.
Don't say, "Wow. This is getting out of hand. I can't wait until I can trim it or cut it off." Don't say, "I can't wait until the playoffs are over so that I can trim this or cut it off." Don't even say, "I can't wait until the Penguins win the Cup so I can trim this or cut it off."
If you're the kind of person that is superstitious enough to grow a playoff beard, you're the kind of person that is superstitious enough to believe that such statements can sink your team.
I actually said, "I can't wait until the Penguins win the Cup so I can trim this," before the Final started against Detroit in 2008 and I will never forgive myself.
6. No trimming the beard itself.
Last year, I made a special dispensation for someone on Facebook and said that they were allowed to trim their beard between finals. I think that was a mistake. I've given you the slack to not grow a neck beard. I've given you the slack to trim the mustache. If you're allowed to trim the whole thing, then why not just have a regular beard? If you're allowed to just have a regular beard, what makes that a playoff beard, specifically?
So... mustache trim and no neck beard only. No trimming between rounds, no exceptions.
7. Have fun with it.
This is something that many sports fans (myself definitely included) forget. Sports are supposed to be fun. Sports are supposed to be an escape.
It's the playoffs. Not everything is called. Not everything requires a stoppage of play.
But, also remember that your team is counting on you. So, don't blow it.
Note, though, that I didn't say that it was a guide for casual fans, because that's not how we roll here at Steelers N At. You need to go all-in with your fandom, but still remain employed and desirable to the opposite sex. Or, same sex. Not that there's anything wrong with that.
1. If you currently have a beard, it's OK.
I normally have a beard, but I trim it down before the Stanley Cup Playoffs start. The key is to take pride in your growth and the fact that you're supporting your team. As your beard grows, their chances to hoist Lord Stanley's Cup grows.
Addendum: If your team needs an extra-special push in the postseason this year, then you should go the extra mile and shave your current beard off. This is a big time sacrifice for most guys with beards and the hockey gods will reward your sacrifice with playoff victories.
That's why I shaved my beard off before the playoffs started last season. The act of not having a beard when you're used to one is a painful process, but not quite as painful as the transitional period between "clean shaven" and "actually having a respectable beard." The hockey gods appreciate that sacrifice as well. You just have to remember that you're contributing to something larger than yourself.
Weidman Addendum: Those of us that maintain beards of three or more inches risk angering the hockey gods by fully shaving the plumage before the playoffs. Our sacrifice instead is resisting the urge this time of year to shed our winter coats and slim down to something sportier like a goatee or conquistador stash. All other rules of trimming and maintenance still apply.
Please note that the Pens got knocked out in the first round last season, which means personal sacrifice by fans might not mean much when it comes to affecting the actual results of games.
2. Neckbeards are not cool.
Neckbeards are unattractive, itchy, and basically the equivalent of slapping God in the face for giving you a beautiful gift.
The idea is that God gave us power of attorney over the beasts of the land, the sea, and the air. Earth is our sanctuary and our bodies are our temples. If we let hair grow on our necks, nature wins. We need to seize power of attorney and shave it down.
Also, if you look at NHL players, they're not rocking the Kyle Orton Classic. They keep a balance between order and chaos by holding their neck hair in check. They're also handsomely compensated for looking like hobos during the playoffs. I doubt that Pascal Dupuis -- though he seems like a hell of a nice guy -- would risk losing his job or looking like crap so that you could get a promotion.
Additionally, a lot of hockey fans have these things. They're called jobs. A regular beard is usually acceptable, but a neck beard pushes the envelope. I love the Penguins. I love the Steelers. I love the Pirates. I love job security more.
And I'm sure we can all appreciate the relevance of that now.
3. The mustache is almost fair game.
If I kiss my wife (or significant other) and they make a face like a very small rat crawled up their nose and they need to expel it at all costs, then it's time to do some work on the old mustache.
I'm not saying trim it to douchebag levels (the 1 setting on most trimmers). I'm not saying that you should go all Civil War and just grow chops. I'm not saying you should go all Alternative Rocker and forgo the mustache. I'm saying this... the idea is to support your team in body and spirit, but not destroy your love life in the process.
Therefore, wife wins over hockey.
I'm sorry. I understand that this makes me a pansy. But, I also doubt that Matt Cooke would make changes in his life that would lead to him having issues banging his wife just for you. Not saying he's a jerk, just putting things in perspective.
4. You are not allowed to make a spectacle of your playoff beard.
Don't tell anyone that you're growing one. Don't write blog posts about it (unless, you know, you're writing a guide about it... OK, I made that up to cover myself). Don't bring it up at happy hour.
Hockey is a sport of unwritten rules and silent acceptance. It isn't a sport for showboating or celebrating, which is why Malkin got in trouble for switching from the "arm pump, then hug teammates" paradigm.
The neck beard follows the same rules. Do not waiver from them.
5. You are not allowed to complain about your playoff beard.
Don't say, "Wow. This is getting out of hand. I can't wait until I can trim it or cut it off." Don't say, "I can't wait until the playoffs are over so that I can trim this or cut it off." Don't even say, "I can't wait until the Penguins win the Cup so I can trim this or cut it off."
If you're the kind of person that is superstitious enough to grow a playoff beard, you're the kind of person that is superstitious enough to believe that such statements can sink your team.
I actually said, "I can't wait until the Penguins win the Cup so I can trim this," before the Final started against Detroit in 2008 and I will never forgive myself.
6. No trimming the beard itself.
Last year, I made a special dispensation for someone on Facebook and said that they were allowed to trim their beard between finals. I think that was a mistake. I've given you the slack to not grow a neck beard. I've given you the slack to trim the mustache. If you're allowed to trim the whole thing, then why not just have a regular beard? If you're allowed to just have a regular beard, what makes that a playoff beard, specifically?
So... mustache trim and no neck beard only. No trimming between rounds, no exceptions.
7. Have fun with it.
This is something that many sports fans (myself definitely included) forget. Sports are supposed to be fun. Sports are supposed to be an escape.
It's the playoffs. Not everything is called. Not everything requires a stoppage of play.
But, also remember that your team is counting on you. So, don't blow it.
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
Pens vs. Lightning Playoff Primer
Ever since the Flyers clinched the division and the Pens got locked into a series with the Lightning, I've been trying to figure this series out. The 4-5 match-up should be tough to handicap, but this one seems to be especially hard to figure out.
The teams split the season series two games apiece. Tampa won the last meeting, but the Pens blew them out in the two before that. The Pens have homefield advantage in the series, but Tampa scored 48 of their 103 points on the road and the Pens actually scored more points on the road than at home (fewer wins, but more overtime losses), so they may have been better off as the five seed here, but just for this series.
The Lightning have an explosive offense, led by stars and talented goal scorers and a serviceable defense with solid roleplayers. The Pens have an excellent, disciplined defense with two good offensive defensemen (Kris Letang and Brooks Orpik) and a defensive forward in Jordan Staal, with a serviceable offense filled with solid roleplayers. On offense, the Pens certainly have guys that can score, but none of them have scored consistently, which boils down to a lot of one goal wins.
With Staal, Kennedy, Neal, Kovy, Talbot, and DuPuis, the Pens do have a lot of talent and they have a lot of guys with playoff experience that can shoot the puck. They have four pretty solid lines and don't have a weak link from top-to-bottom, especially when you consider that the defensemen are interchangeable and can support a weaker offensive line by creating opportunities in transition. The trouble is that, without Crosby and Malkin, they don't have that one line that scares the hell out of everybody. Tampa's first line scares the hell out of me, makes me think the Pens could lose this series.
Sure, defense wins championships, but goals win games. Everything gets tighter and defensive teams usually have an edge when playoff time starts, but there's really no substitute for that one Uber-line that keeps the other team awake at night.
The experts on ESPN.com favor the Pens, with six out of eight picking them to advance past the first round. That's comforting, but they also seemed convinced that the Flyers don't stand a chance against the Sabres, which I find tough to swallow. I think those two series should be very even, with the team that wants it more and gets the most breaks coming out on top.
At any rate, I think that the Tampa offense -- especially the first line -- should be fairly negated by the Pens defense. In order to really roll on the Pens defense, you need to go outside-inside by avoiding the middle of the ice in the crease and sweeping in to crash the net when you get in the opposing team's zone. That's tough to do and I don't think Tampa has the talent to pull it off, but they could wear the Pens down eventually by spending a lot of time in the offensive zone. Ultimately, this is a wash.
Tampa's defense isn't great, but neither is the Pens offense. If any combination of the offensive roleplayers gets hot, then the Pens could smoke the Lightning in five games, but I doubt that happens. It could be that they start to gel together during this series -- remember, there have been a ton of injuries aside from Crosby and Malkin and Kovy and Neal only joined the team in February -- and get hot in Game 6. That's another longshot, though. The most likely outcome is that the Pens grind out a lot of close games to advance and will (hopefully) be able to save their "signature" game for the later rounds.
Special teams is very nearly a wash with the Pens holding a slight advantage. Even without Sid "diving" they still draw a fair number of penalties. They're 26th in the league on the power play, but with enough chances, they could sneak a few key goals through, even against the 8th-ranked penalty kill. The big advantage here is the Pens penalty kill, which is the best in the league. If they can keep that up, they won't get caught with their pants down when they're shorthanded in a close game.
Offense and defense are a wash. Special teams is basically a wash. That means it comes down to goaltending. Marc-Andre Fleury has been spectacular at times this season, especially in the last couple of months. He's also had some troubling lapses in concentration this season, especially in the last couple of months. Still, I would take Fleury over 41-year old Dwayne Roloson. If he has two bad games in this series, the Pens are sunk. Then again, if he has two bad games in any series, the Pens are sunk. Roloson can't have a bad game and make it easy for the Pens to score. That's the one area where they've struggled since their captains went down and any team that gives them hope and confidence is going to be in big trouble.
I'm not saying that Fleury is awesome and Roloson is a bum. I'm saying that I trust Fleury to not have two bad games in this series more than I trust Roloson to not slip up occasionally (or have even one, entire bad game).
I think Tampa's a great team and they could certainly win this series. I just don't think that they will win it.
Prediction: Pens in 6
The teams split the season series two games apiece. Tampa won the last meeting, but the Pens blew them out in the two before that. The Pens have homefield advantage in the series, but Tampa scored 48 of their 103 points on the road and the Pens actually scored more points on the road than at home (fewer wins, but more overtime losses), so they may have been better off as the five seed here, but just for this series.
The Lightning have an explosive offense, led by stars and talented goal scorers and a serviceable defense with solid roleplayers. The Pens have an excellent, disciplined defense with two good offensive defensemen (Kris Letang and Brooks Orpik) and a defensive forward in Jordan Staal, with a serviceable offense filled with solid roleplayers. On offense, the Pens certainly have guys that can score, but none of them have scored consistently, which boils down to a lot of one goal wins.
With Staal, Kennedy, Neal, Kovy, Talbot, and DuPuis, the Pens do have a lot of talent and they have a lot of guys with playoff experience that can shoot the puck. They have four pretty solid lines and don't have a weak link from top-to-bottom, especially when you consider that the defensemen are interchangeable and can support a weaker offensive line by creating opportunities in transition. The trouble is that, without Crosby and Malkin, they don't have that one line that scares the hell out of everybody. Tampa's first line scares the hell out of me, makes me think the Pens could lose this series.
Sure, defense wins championships, but goals win games. Everything gets tighter and defensive teams usually have an edge when playoff time starts, but there's really no substitute for that one Uber-line that keeps the other team awake at night.
The experts on ESPN.com favor the Pens, with six out of eight picking them to advance past the first round. That's comforting, but they also seemed convinced that the Flyers don't stand a chance against the Sabres, which I find tough to swallow. I think those two series should be very even, with the team that wants it more and gets the most breaks coming out on top.
At any rate, I think that the Tampa offense -- especially the first line -- should be fairly negated by the Pens defense. In order to really roll on the Pens defense, you need to go outside-inside by avoiding the middle of the ice in the crease and sweeping in to crash the net when you get in the opposing team's zone. That's tough to do and I don't think Tampa has the talent to pull it off, but they could wear the Pens down eventually by spending a lot of time in the offensive zone. Ultimately, this is a wash.
Tampa's defense isn't great, but neither is the Pens offense. If any combination of the offensive roleplayers gets hot, then the Pens could smoke the Lightning in five games, but I doubt that happens. It could be that they start to gel together during this series -- remember, there have been a ton of injuries aside from Crosby and Malkin and Kovy and Neal only joined the team in February -- and get hot in Game 6. That's another longshot, though. The most likely outcome is that the Pens grind out a lot of close games to advance and will (hopefully) be able to save their "signature" game for the later rounds.
Special teams is very nearly a wash with the Pens holding a slight advantage. Even without Sid "diving" they still draw a fair number of penalties. They're 26th in the league on the power play, but with enough chances, they could sneak a few key goals through, even against the 8th-ranked penalty kill. The big advantage here is the Pens penalty kill, which is the best in the league. If they can keep that up, they won't get caught with their pants down when they're shorthanded in a close game.
Offense and defense are a wash. Special teams is basically a wash. That means it comes down to goaltending. Marc-Andre Fleury has been spectacular at times this season, especially in the last couple of months. He's also had some troubling lapses in concentration this season, especially in the last couple of months. Still, I would take Fleury over 41-year old Dwayne Roloson. If he has two bad games in this series, the Pens are sunk. Then again, if he has two bad games in any series, the Pens are sunk. Roloson can't have a bad game and make it easy for the Pens to score. That's the one area where they've struggled since their captains went down and any team that gives them hope and confidence is going to be in big trouble.
I'm not saying that Fleury is awesome and Roloson is a bum. I'm saying that I trust Fleury to not have two bad games in this series more than I trust Roloson to not slip up occasionally (or have even one, entire bad game).
I think Tampa's a great team and they could certainly win this series. I just don't think that they will win it.
Prediction: Pens in 6
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