I've said all along that the Pens would have underachieved had they not won the East. Coming into the playoffs, I had a really good handle on how they matched up against other teams in the Eastern conference, but really no idea how they matched up against anyone in the West, given the fact that the shortened season eliminated inter-conference play. The only thing I knew for sure was this: Whoever the Pens had to face in the Eastern portion of the bracket, the odds and matchups were in their favor to win the series.
I believed that against the Islanders and the Senators and I believe it in the Eastern Conference Final against the Boston Bruins.
Like most of the teams in this side of the bracket, the Pens finished the season with a winning record against the Bruins, going 3-0-0 and winning three one goal games. Now, the fact that all three games were close means that they were anyone's games. But, you can't discount the fact that the Pens also won all three close games, because this figures to be a tight series.
Neither team has a huge name at goal tender, but Tuukku Rask is certainly more well-regarded and has more raw talent than Tomas Vokoun. Then again, Marc-Andre Fleury has more renown and athletic ability than Vokoun and look where the two netminders stand at this point. Fleury is officially Vokoun's backup and will only come in if the Bruins chase Vokoun or if it looks like the series is on the brink and Vokoun has lost his edge (like what happened against the Islanders and would've happened against the Flyers last year, had the Pens possessed two viable options at goal tender). And, realistically, I don't think that Vokoun is going to get rattled enough that he loses the starting job.
He's not as flashy or exciting as Fleury, but he's extremely consistent. The Pens don't need a guy with a high ceiling as long as he also has a high floor. The Flower has has a high ceiling, but he also has a pretty low floor. If the Pens can get competent, consistent goal tending, then they'll be able to score enough goals and protect their goal tender with their skilled defensemen enough that they don't need a guy like Jonathan Quick (who is amazing, BTW, and you should totally watch the Hawks-Kings series).
Vokoun has earned at least one mulligan. You can't fault him for the double overtime loss against Ottawa and that's been his only loss since he came in. He's been making the easy saves, making the vast majority of the tough saves, and hasn't let in any headscratchers. If he can keep that up, I think that's more than sufficient from here on out.
Now, that's not to say I'm in love with the guy, but we're going to have to face facts here. Regardless of who the Pens have in at goal the rest of the way, the other team is going to have the advantage at goal tender. That's more praise for Quick, Rask, and Corey Crawford than it is a knock on Vokoun or Flower. Thing is, I think the Pens can get past any goal tender if they get enough chances. I think they can wear anyone down -- they sure dismantled a fantastic goalie like Craig Anderson in pretty short order -- and I think they have the talent and tenacity on offense to chase anyone out of the net. I know that's a bold statement, but that's how much confidence I have in this offense.
Boston has an edge between the pipes and the Pens have an edge on offense, but I don't think it's a huge edge. The Bruins can get hot and score goals in bunches. They have four solid lines -- their fourth line in particular has been on fire since the playoffs started -- and their top line is the second best in hockey (after Kunitz-Crosby-Dupuis). Their second and third lines don't match up as well against the Pens as their first and fourth -- especially if Jussi, Kennedy, Morrow, and Cooke continue to play about as well as they have -- but Boston has a ton of depth and can get on you in a hurry; just ask Toronto.
The difference in this series, for me, is defense and special teams.
Zdeno Chara can handle anyone and getting Dennis Seidenberg back is a big deal for the Bruins, but other than those two guys, they have a bunch of warm bodies and rookie overachievers (this is assuming Andrew Ference doesn't see any significant time until Game 3 or 4). Chara and Seidenberg will either wear down or not be on the ice and guys like Torey Krug, Dougie Hamilton, and Pittsburgh's own Matt Bartkowski will come down to earth. The defensemen for Boston have played well in the first two rounds, especially considering the injuries they've had to contend with. But, if you took the best guys from Toronto and New York and made four lines out of them, you still wouldn't have four lines as good as what the Pens have been rolling with since the trade deadline. The Bruins defensemen just haven't had to match up against this level of talent thus far in the playoffs and they're going to come back down to earth (hard) once they have to.
On the other hand, the Pens are now rolling with their full complement of defensemen and they have guys that can skate and score (Kris Letang, Paul Martin, and Simon Despres), an enforcer with some scoring upside in Doug Murray, and a couple guys who can do a little bit of everything in Brooks Orpik and Mark Eaton. And, they're deep, so I feel comfortable with Engelland or Niskanen -- or any of the combinations they've played during the course of the playoffs, because all these guys have seen time -- in the event that anyone goes down. They have a ton of options and can play a bunch of different ways, even switching combinations and styles when they do line changes. That flexibility -- which they're only just starting to take advantage of, since there were so many injuries throughout the course of the season -- makes this a very balanced and capable defense.
On special teams, Boston can't give the Pens more than three chances a game if they want to win this series. The power play for the Penguins is just too potent and, regardless of how good your penalty kill is, it's extremely difficult to shut them out on any given night. Since goals will probably be flowing pretty freely, you don't want to give the Pens a stick to hit you with. The biggest stick they have is that power play, particularly since James Neal appears to have found his scoring stroke back. With Letang running point and Neal and Iginla sniping away from either side, then you add in Kunitz and/or Crosby and Malkin... that's just a deadly PP unit right there. When you add in the fact that the Penguins are also very good at drawing penalties -- note that I didn't say diving, because they've really gotten away from that -- and it's a lethal combination. You pretty much have to pick your poison. It'll be interesting to see what strategy Boston goes with: Whether they'll let the Pens skate free and trust Rask to make a bunch of killer saves or if they'll clutch, hold, and slash in the hopes that the officials won't call anything this deep in the playoffs, dealing with the daunting task of killing a bunch of penalties if that strategy backfires.
In case I haven't made this abundantly clear, the Bruins are a great team. The Pittsburgh Penguins are just better and they have a number of key advantages over Boston. I think the Pens are feeling it now and they're incredibly focused on the prize. When you take the talent that they have and add in determination, focus, and desperation, that's a dangerous team right there. I think that it's possible that the Blackhawks could beat them in a seven game series at this point, but I don't see anyone else with the horses and the intangibles to match up.
If Boston can get all four of their lines rolling, if their young defensemen continue to play at the high level they've been playing, and if Rask only has one game where he gets overpowered and overwhelmed and if the Bruins can stay out of the penalty box, they can win this series.
But... that's a whole lot of "ifs" and too many for my blood.
Prediction:
Pens in 6
Showing posts with label hockey playoff predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label hockey playoff predictions. Show all posts
Friday, May 31, 2013
Wednesday, May 01, 2013
Pens-Islanders Preview
OK. I've been trying not to think, type, or even say this to anyone else, but I feel the need to speak what I feel is the truth... I think that the Pens are definitely going to win this series, the only question in my mind is whether it takes five games or six.
I know the Islanders aren't pushovers. I know that only two points separate them and third-seeded Capitals (and fifth-seeded Maple Leafs). If they had won a game here or a game there, or waited until overtime to lose a couple games instead of losing them in regulation, they would've been just as good as a third seed. So, I know they aren't some puny 8 seed that should be easily dispatched by the top-seeded Pens.
I also know that the Penguins are extremely talented, surprisingly tough, chocked full of veteran leadership, very deep, and highly motivated. They're also realistic. They're quick to point out that you could've ascribed a similar description to them in 2012, if not 2011. They've been knocked out in the first round the last two seasons and they're well-aware of the fact that talent and regular season accolades don't mean anything come playoff time.
On the other side of the ice, you have a young, but very talented Islanders team. They have nothing to lose. They're playing with house money. Everyone expects them to get crushed, to be a speed bump for the Pens on their way through the Eastern Conference and into the Stanley Cup Final. All the pressure is on the Penguins.
Thing is, all the pressure has always been on the Pens. They've been in this position before: In 09-10 when they were supposed to roll over the Canadiens, in '10-11 to a lesser degree, and definitely last season, when they just needed to get past the Flyers and it would be smooth sailing. Everyone looks at the talent on offense, the offensive defensemen, and the playoff-tested goaltender and assumes they're going to roll.
With the changes they made at the trade deadline and the guys they added -- not just big names, but talented two-way players that desperately want to raise the Cup -- the pressure is even greater and the assumptions are even more implied (you can imply an assumption, right?)
I get that they're being set up for a fall. I get that the "Cup or Bust" mentality on this team puts a lot of pressure on the players, raises expectations for fans, increases animosity of opposing fan bases, and puts a target on the Pens (as if teams weren't motivated enough to win when the postseason starts anyway).
I get it, I do, I just don't think it happens this round. The players are thinking one game at a time, they're not acknowledging the pressure, and they're fully accepting that it's their job to go out and win the games on the schedule, given that the front office and coaches have done everything in their power to set this team up a for a deep run.
I heard an interview with Sidney Crosby on the radio the other day and he kept reiterating that everyone had been high on them in previous seasons, but they were eliminated in the first round. I think he feels very strongly that this team has unfinished business and that they're not only fighting the Islanders, they're fighting the past. If they can win this series, it will get a huge monkey off their back and they can go back to just fighting their next opponent.
Then there's this: They have three great lines (even without Crosby), a well-rested and proven goaltender, and six defensemen that are much better on defense than they are on offense (and that's saying something). They have a potent power play that got considerably stronger now that James Neal and Malkin are healthy. The penalty kill is an issue, but it's not as big of an issue as it was heading into last year's playoffs and it's much improved now that everyone's coming back and playing at a high level (especially Martin and Eaton).
That's a lot of compelling reasons for them to at least win the East, to say nothing of just winning this one series against a talented-but-inexperienced-and-definitely-overmatched Islanders team.
I read something online the other day that basically said that the Pens have no weaknesses, then backed down a little to say that they don't really have any big holes (and they have a lot of depth to move a problem guy out and replace him with someone as good or possibly better). I don't think they're indestructible, but, like I said, I think they have more than enough going for them to win this round. What I keep thinking of is the fact that, basically, every expert out there is saying that the only team that can beat the Pens is the team that, "Does what the Flyers did last year."
So, an opponent would need to agitate the Pens stars, force them into committing penalties, and then convert 50% of those penalties into goals. They'd also need to jump on Marc Andre-Fleury early -- in each game and in the series -- and get the defensemen to second-guess themselves constantly. Also, Fleury needs to play like total crap.
That series was a perfect storm of bad matchups and bad outcomes. I don't think it happens this series and I don't think it happens in the Eastern Conference side of the bracket.
Prediction: Pens in 5
I know the Islanders aren't pushovers. I know that only two points separate them and third-seeded Capitals (and fifth-seeded Maple Leafs). If they had won a game here or a game there, or waited until overtime to lose a couple games instead of losing them in regulation, they would've been just as good as a third seed. So, I know they aren't some puny 8 seed that should be easily dispatched by the top-seeded Pens.
I also know that the Penguins are extremely talented, surprisingly tough, chocked full of veteran leadership, very deep, and highly motivated. They're also realistic. They're quick to point out that you could've ascribed a similar description to them in 2012, if not 2011. They've been knocked out in the first round the last two seasons and they're well-aware of the fact that talent and regular season accolades don't mean anything come playoff time.
On the other side of the ice, you have a young, but very talented Islanders team. They have nothing to lose. They're playing with house money. Everyone expects them to get crushed, to be a speed bump for the Pens on their way through the Eastern Conference and into the Stanley Cup Final. All the pressure is on the Penguins.
Thing is, all the pressure has always been on the Pens. They've been in this position before: In 09-10 when they were supposed to roll over the Canadiens, in '10-11 to a lesser degree, and definitely last season, when they just needed to get past the Flyers and it would be smooth sailing. Everyone looks at the talent on offense, the offensive defensemen, and the playoff-tested goaltender and assumes they're going to roll.
With the changes they made at the trade deadline and the guys they added -- not just big names, but talented two-way players that desperately want to raise the Cup -- the pressure is even greater and the assumptions are even more implied (you can imply an assumption, right?)
I get that they're being set up for a fall. I get that the "Cup or Bust" mentality on this team puts a lot of pressure on the players, raises expectations for fans, increases animosity of opposing fan bases, and puts a target on the Pens (as if teams weren't motivated enough to win when the postseason starts anyway).
I get it, I do, I just don't think it happens this round. The players are thinking one game at a time, they're not acknowledging the pressure, and they're fully accepting that it's their job to go out and win the games on the schedule, given that the front office and coaches have done everything in their power to set this team up a for a deep run.
I heard an interview with Sidney Crosby on the radio the other day and he kept reiterating that everyone had been high on them in previous seasons, but they were eliminated in the first round. I think he feels very strongly that this team has unfinished business and that they're not only fighting the Islanders, they're fighting the past. If they can win this series, it will get a huge monkey off their back and they can go back to just fighting their next opponent.
Then there's this: They have three great lines (even without Crosby), a well-rested and proven goaltender, and six defensemen that are much better on defense than they are on offense (and that's saying something). They have a potent power play that got considerably stronger now that James Neal and Malkin are healthy. The penalty kill is an issue, but it's not as big of an issue as it was heading into last year's playoffs and it's much improved now that everyone's coming back and playing at a high level (especially Martin and Eaton).
That's a lot of compelling reasons for them to at least win the East, to say nothing of just winning this one series against a talented-but-inexperienced-and-definitely-overmatched Islanders team.
I read something online the other day that basically said that the Pens have no weaknesses, then backed down a little to say that they don't really have any big holes (and they have a lot of depth to move a problem guy out and replace him with someone as good or possibly better). I don't think they're indestructible, but, like I said, I think they have more than enough going for them to win this round. What I keep thinking of is the fact that, basically, every expert out there is saying that the only team that can beat the Pens is the team that, "Does what the Flyers did last year."
So, an opponent would need to agitate the Pens stars, force them into committing penalties, and then convert 50% of those penalties into goals. They'd also need to jump on Marc Andre-Fleury early -- in each game and in the series -- and get the defensemen to second-guess themselves constantly. Also, Fleury needs to play like total crap.
That series was a perfect storm of bad matchups and bad outcomes. I don't think it happens this series and I don't think it happens in the Eastern Conference side of the bracket.
Prediction: Pens in 5
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
Pens-Flyers Preview
When the seeding was finalized and I knew the Pens were going to play the Flyers in the first round, I had a prediction: Pens in six. My reasoning? Just because. That's it. That's all I had. I thought about it some more and read some analysis online, but I'm still not completely sure.
Here's why I'm confident:
The Penguins have three solid scoring lines and they're probably the best team up the middle across all four lines in the NHL. They finished the season first in scoring. They were fourth on the power play and third in the penalty kill. They had 50 wins for only the second time in franchise history. They finished with 100 points for only the seventh time in franchise history, the fourth time in the last five seasons. That means all those great Lemieux and Jagr teams only had three seasons with 100 points. I'm not here to say that the New Era Pens are better than the Old Era Pens, I'm just saying that it's impressive.
They have a ton of talent, a ton of playoff experience, and a proven postseason goaltender in Marc-Andre Fleury. Dan Bylsma is a pretty good coach.
They have two of the best players in the world and the best first line in the NHL. One of the things they were missing last postseason is that one line that strikes fear in the heart of their opponents. This year, they have that line. They also have Sidney Crosby playing on the second line. Jordan Staal has been up and down anchoring the third line, but I he has the kind of potential (I'm still prepared to bank on potential, at least for another year) to be a game changer.
They also play great defense when everyone's healthy. Kris Letang has been outstanding when he's been in the lineup. Everyone focuses on the offensive side of things, but the offense tends to overshadow the fact that, for the most part, the Pens are a solid defensive team. They have defensemen that can get back on an odd man rush and they have defensemen that can score. They finished second in the league in goal differential and that speaks to the fact that they can keep the score down as well as put up points.
Everything points to a deep playoff run, which makes me nervous.
Here's why I'm nervous:
Hate to admit it, but the Flyers have themselves a great team. They finished with 103 points, only five behind the Pens. They were second in goals scored, sixth in the power play, and 17th in the penalty kill. Not quite as impressive as the numbers the Penguins put up, but still very nice. In addition, Philly has done a great job of converting on the power play against the Pens and they've been solid on the penalty kill as well. That means you can throw the numbers right out the window and focus on individual match-ups and determination when the puck drops for real.
Philadelphia scares me more than any other team in the Eastern bracket. I was hoping the Pens would win their division and the number one seed so that someone else would draw the Flyers in the first round. The best way to beat the Penguins is to slow them down, beat them up, and make them play the game your way. Not many teams have been able to do that this season, but Philly does it better than anyone. They're not intimidated by the big names and high-powered offense that the Pens bring to the table. They've played a lot of tight games against the Pens this season and won most of them. Come playoff time, all games are tight. If the Flyers manage to pull out a few squeakers, the season is over.
This makes me nervous and this makes me nervous. Ten out of 12 ESPN analysts picked the Pens to win the series and ten out of 16 NHL analysts picked them to win it all. There's a lot of leadership in the dressing room, including Bylsma, that's trying to ensure that this team isn't satisfied with popular opinion. But, it's possible that the Penguins could enter this series overconfident and that could be their undoing. The Flyers are too good and too dangerous to be overlooked.
On the other hand, this team wants to bring the Cup back to Pittsburgh and Philly is in the way. They aren't satisfied and they are motivated. If they make it past the Flyers in this round, they can make a very deep run. Will they make it past Philly?
I think that comes down to two things: Special teams and goaltending. For me, The Flower is a constant. He's a known quantity and a proven performer. If he takes a step back or Ilya Bryzgalov takes a step up, Philly can win this series. I don't think that either will happen, but it's possible.
Special teams means NO FIVE FORWARDS ON THE POWER PLAY and means that the Flyers draw a lot of minor penalties. Since it's the playoffs, the refs will call the games looser, which means the Penguins cannot retaliate. It also means that the Pens need to convert when they get the opportunity. I think that they can. If they convert at a higher rate than the regular season, this series could end early. If it's a wash and goaltending remains constant, Pens win. If the Flyers are able to win on special teams, regardless of how Fleury plays, they'll take the series.
I think the Pens make the plays they need to make. Why? Just... because.
Prediction:
Pens in Six
Here's why I'm confident:
The Penguins have three solid scoring lines and they're probably the best team up the middle across all four lines in the NHL. They finished the season first in scoring. They were fourth on the power play and third in the penalty kill. They had 50 wins for only the second time in franchise history. They finished with 100 points for only the seventh time in franchise history, the fourth time in the last five seasons. That means all those great Lemieux and Jagr teams only had three seasons with 100 points. I'm not here to say that the New Era Pens are better than the Old Era Pens, I'm just saying that it's impressive.
They have a ton of talent, a ton of playoff experience, and a proven postseason goaltender in Marc-Andre Fleury. Dan Bylsma is a pretty good coach.
They have two of the best players in the world and the best first line in the NHL. One of the things they were missing last postseason is that one line that strikes fear in the heart of their opponents. This year, they have that line. They also have Sidney Crosby playing on the second line. Jordan Staal has been up and down anchoring the third line, but I he has the kind of potential (I'm still prepared to bank on potential, at least for another year) to be a game changer.
They also play great defense when everyone's healthy. Kris Letang has been outstanding when he's been in the lineup. Everyone focuses on the offensive side of things, but the offense tends to overshadow the fact that, for the most part, the Pens are a solid defensive team. They have defensemen that can get back on an odd man rush and they have defensemen that can score. They finished second in the league in goal differential and that speaks to the fact that they can keep the score down as well as put up points.
Everything points to a deep playoff run, which makes me nervous.
Here's why I'm nervous:
Hate to admit it, but the Flyers have themselves a great team. They finished with 103 points, only five behind the Pens. They were second in goals scored, sixth in the power play, and 17th in the penalty kill. Not quite as impressive as the numbers the Penguins put up, but still very nice. In addition, Philly has done a great job of converting on the power play against the Pens and they've been solid on the penalty kill as well. That means you can throw the numbers right out the window and focus on individual match-ups and determination when the puck drops for real.
Philadelphia scares me more than any other team in the Eastern bracket. I was hoping the Pens would win their division and the number one seed so that someone else would draw the Flyers in the first round. The best way to beat the Penguins is to slow them down, beat them up, and make them play the game your way. Not many teams have been able to do that this season, but Philly does it better than anyone. They're not intimidated by the big names and high-powered offense that the Pens bring to the table. They've played a lot of tight games against the Pens this season and won most of them. Come playoff time, all games are tight. If the Flyers manage to pull out a few squeakers, the season is over.
This makes me nervous and this makes me nervous. Ten out of 12 ESPN analysts picked the Pens to win the series and ten out of 16 NHL analysts picked them to win it all. There's a lot of leadership in the dressing room, including Bylsma, that's trying to ensure that this team isn't satisfied with popular opinion. But, it's possible that the Penguins could enter this series overconfident and that could be their undoing. The Flyers are too good and too dangerous to be overlooked.
On the other hand, this team wants to bring the Cup back to Pittsburgh and Philly is in the way. They aren't satisfied and they are motivated. If they make it past the Flyers in this round, they can make a very deep run. Will they make it past Philly?
I think that comes down to two things: Special teams and goaltending. For me, The Flower is a constant. He's a known quantity and a proven performer. If he takes a step back or Ilya Bryzgalov takes a step up, Philly can win this series. I don't think that either will happen, but it's possible.
Special teams means NO FIVE FORWARDS ON THE POWER PLAY and means that the Flyers draw a lot of minor penalties. Since it's the playoffs, the refs will call the games looser, which means the Penguins cannot retaliate. It also means that the Pens need to convert when they get the opportunity. I think that they can. If they convert at a higher rate than the regular season, this series could end early. If it's a wash and goaltending remains constant, Pens win. If the Flyers are able to win on special teams, regardless of how Fleury plays, they'll take the series.
I think the Pens make the plays they need to make. Why? Just... because.
Prediction:
Pens in Six
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