Wednesday, October 03, 2012

Pick Em Week 5

(For Pick Em standings -- week-by-week and year-to-date -- click here.)

Weidman is on vacation, so I, Keller, am responsible for writing something pithy and amusing and interesting.  So... take my wife, please?

Seriously, don't take my wife.  I'll be out of town for a week and I'm frightened that she'll see the outside world that I've been denying her by locking her up in the basement and she'll leave me.

Last week, we crushed it, at least compared to the first three weeks of the season.  Whether that's due to the actual refs coming back or to the fact that we finally got our bearings, I have no idea.  The point is that we successfully predicted the outcomes of games better than most experts, so you should listen to us.

Onto this week's picks and Locks....


And now, after being in the French Quarter since Sunday, need to roll out an image manipulation program and attempt to make the picks graphic

Photobucket

Okay, that wasn't too bad...now back to hurricanes.
<\Weidman Edit>


Lock of the Week (Keller): New York Football Giants over Cleveland Browns 31-10 (Giants will cover favored by 11, take the Under, because the Browns won't score enough points):  There are a lot of solid Lock of the Week candidates on the board this week, but I tend to stay away from road teams when picking my Locks and I don't trust the 49ers quite yet after they broke Forty's heart in Week 3 (thanks, Vikings!).  Besides, what looks better than a pissed off Giants team playing at home against the overmatched Browns?

When you get right down to it, I don't think the Browns can beat anyone, which is why "Browns Opponent" is penciled in for my Lock of the Week for the balance of the season.  They can go ahead and keep trying to prove me wrong.  If they do, bully for them.  As long as it isn't against the Steelers.

Lock of the Week (Weidman)New York Football Giants over Cleveland Browns 31-7 (Giants will cover, Browns will get lost on the way to the game and not score enough):
Man, I'm totally not sold on the Giants this season just yet, but I have a hard time not picking a Browns opponent as a lock, assuming that team knows which end of the field they're running towards (as such, I wouldn't be able to pick the Saints as a lock over the Browns if that would have been scheduled for this season.)     Damnit, and here I thought I might be able to add something new.  But that just goes to show: it's an easy lock against the Brownies.  Take it, and pity the souls of those who need to root for that team.

Lock of the Week (Forty): San Francisco over Buffalo 34-17 (I think San Francisco will open it up 
big in the fourth quarter, so take the spread and the under, barely. Just straight up is a better bet. This could wind up looking like the New England game Buffalo played last week.)

As Brad said, there are a lot of good lock candidates this week. I don't want to keep picking on the Browns and while I love Houston over the Jets in a romp, I don't want to wait until Monday night to see if I got my lock right. Brad also mentioned I got burned by the 49ers previously, but that was a road game against a better than originally though Vikings. The 49ers are home this time and coming off of blanking the Jets.

Everything I said last time about San Francisco playing solidly as a team and wanting to really make a statement goes again here. Buffalo also burned me as I picked them to lose to the Browns previously. What I said goes again here and all of the Bills' faults were pretty much exposed in the Patriots game last week as they collapsed in the second half defensively and the offense lived and died by the big gain. So, my logic here is being wrong on these teams twice means I should be right here. I didn't say it was normal logic, it was my logic.


Meet the "Experts":

Brad "QBERT" Keller is the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this innovative approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film and finding angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of picking and handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field this season, he's anxious to defend his title against a formidable group of experts that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two jokers, right? No problem. Because he has a foolproof system.



"Arena" Weidman's prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode."  A devoted follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong opinions on why more people should go to Power games and how the the Cardinals should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team.  Mainly, he just has trouble with the field being way too big.



Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst earned his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a 40-year-old man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King Cobra, but there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew Bledsoe memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest, right?). He feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started rooting for a 2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually won three Super Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six Super Bowl wins, to which Leonard says they would have had eight if the Patriots hadn't beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game. They then mumble something about Franco Harris and walk away.

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