Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Pick Em Week 6

(For Pick Em Standings -- week-by-week and YTD -- click here.)

Well, Keller and I survived New Orleans and Forty I'm back, baby!  A lot of close calls this week, but we're mostly in agreement below.  My toughest choice was the Bungles over the Brownies.  My gut actually says the Browns can win this one, but I just still can't bring myself to pick them.  I wouldn't be surprised if the same is true of the other two guys.  San Diego is another toughy for Monday night, but personally, I had to go with the home team.

Also, I need to take a minute to say:  I hate Thursday Night Football.  Hate it. It's even worse when the Steelers get stuck with that slot.  Football belongs on Thanksgiving Thursday and that's it.  And, frankly, that's only because I'm in a gravy-coma and have the attention span for football, a parade or Die Hard.  That's it.

So, on to the picks.  If I nail my picks, I can close the gap a bit.  If I don't...I'm in trouble.  As always, comments are appreciated below.


Lock of the Week (Keller): Atlanta over Oakland (Atlanta covers the 9 point spread and take the Over at 48.5): 34-20 I thought about picking against Cleveland, but they're at home and I don't trust the Bengals on the road.  Or at home.  Not with my precious, precious Lock.  Oakland is one injured defensive back away from having Carson Palmer play safety and Julio Jones and Roddy White are pretty good.

I know this screams Trap Game and the Raiders just came off a bye, but I think the Falcons have enough talent and enough of a home field advantage to win this one easy. 

Lock of the Week (Weidman) Atlanta over Oakland (Atlanta covers and take the under) 24-14:I hate to be Captain Spread, but when most spreads are less than 5 points this week, and this game is a whopping 9, I gotta take it.  Plus, I'm still angry about the Steelers' loss.  Plus, Atlanta is looking stronger than the Raiders, and I think Oakland's wins have been more about luck than anything else.

Lock of the Week (Forty): Atlanta over Oakland (spread is 9 and the over/under is 48. I'd go under and Atlanta with the points). 27-13 A five-year-old with no knowledge of football could tell you that an undefeated team at home should beat a one win team on the road. And Oakland's one win came during The Week Of Which We Will Never Speak of Again, so that hardly counts. Atlanta has been averaging just under 30 points a game and Oakland is averaging around 14, so figuring out the score isn't too hard either. I really can't give much more insight here other than Oakland sucks on both sides of the ball and Atlanta is pretty good on both sides of the ball. The only thing I could see happening here is Atlanta taking Oakland too lightly due to the 5-0 start and thinking they can coast at home. Then again, they probably can.

Meet the "Experts":

Brad "QBERT" Keller is the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this innovative approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film and finding angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of picking and handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field this season, he's anxious to defend his title against a formidable group of experts that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two jokers, right? No problem. Because he has a foolproof system.

"Arena" Weidman's prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode." A devoted follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong opinions on why more people should go to Power games and how the the Cardinals should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team. Mainly, he just has trouble with the field being way too big.

Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst earned his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a 40-year-old man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King Cobra, but there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew Bledsoe memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest, right?). He feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started rooting for a 2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually won three Super Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six Super Bowl wins, to which Leonard says they would have had eight if the Patriots hadn't beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game. They then mumble something about Franco Harris and walk away.

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