Handicapping the Wild Card Round

After my resounding victory in NFL Pick Em this season, I've decided to pick each round of the postseason against the spread.  This is a more challenging way to do things, but I have confidence in my abilities.  Onto the picks (home team in CAPS)...

HOUSTON (-3) over Cincinnati:
I thought this line was going to go down when it opened, because so many people were going to take the Bengals in an upset.  It hasn't moved since it opened at 3, but you should still take it as soon as you can in case the Mighty Ginger's mysterious "illness" starts to swing it towards the Texans.  If the line moves to 3.5 or, even worse, 4, then it's not worth it.  This is a textbook 21-17 or 27-23 or 28-24 game.  At four points, it's a push.  At three points, it's easy money.

In the playoffs, it's all about quarterback play.  Cincinnati has the edge there, but the Texans have the edge everywhere else, including the fact that they're playing at home.  The over/under on this one is surprisingly low (38.5), but I think that Vegas is thinking that two solid defenses will keep this game low scoring.

My feeling is that it will unfold like Super Bowl XXXVIII between the Panthers and the Patriots.  Both teams will start out conservative and try to feel each other out, then they'll come out swinging in the second half.  If the first half ends 10-7, don't panic.  They'll make up for it in the second half.

NEW ORLEANS (-10.5) over Detroit:
I tried to talk my way into picking the Lions.  I really did.  That line is HUGE and Detroit is a solid team.  The Saints play crappy defense.  But, really, I'd need a 15-17 point line to pick against the Saints at home.  They're just unstoppable.

NOLA's margins of victory at home this season: 17, 7, 55, 11, 25, 14 (against Detroit), 29, 28.  They're 8-0 at home, there's only one game on that list where they wouldn't have covered, and they already covered that spread against the Lions earlier this season.

I know that the over is 58.5 and that's a ridiculous number.  But... total points in the eight games this season in the Super Dome: 43, 73, 69, 43, 73, 48, 63, 62.  That's five out of eight total games and three out of the last four.  They might hit the Over by halftime.

Atlanta (+3) over NY GIANTS:
New York is 4-4 at home and they're shaky as hell.  I think the Falcons cover and win outright, so take the moneyline at +136.

These are two high-flying offenses and two teams that don't play a lot of defense.  An over/under of 47 actually seems a bit low.  I see the Falcons winning this one 34-20 or so.

DENVER (+9) over Steelers:
Don't get me wrong.  I think the Steelers win this one.  I just think that, whoever came up with this line, they didn't watch the Steelers play the past month or so.  With an ailing Ben Roethlisberger behind center, I find it hard to believe that the Steelers will score enough to cover this spread, regardless of where the game is played.

This strikes me as another grinding 13-9 or 14-10 or 16-13 victory for the Black and Gold.  I think they win, but I don't think they roll.  And take the Under, even though total points is an extremely low 34.

Good News and Bad News: Steelers at Texans

Good news first.  Should be able to get this out of the way fairly quickly...

1. Ben Roethlisberger's foot is only sprained, not broken.  He's currently listed as Questionable for next week's game against the Titans.
2. They could have lost by a lot more.
3. Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders looked good returning kicks and Brown stepped up in the passing game.

Now for the bad news...

1. The two "good news" items aren't really good news.
2. I didn't catch a lot of guys out of position or taking bad angles.  On defense, the linemen were all in their gaps, they were doing what they were supposed to be doing, and there were clear pursuit lanes for the linebackers and safeties.  That's not bad.  What's bad is that no one on the defensive line was getting any penetration.  They were getting to their spot, but they were getting thrown to the ground or being held in place instead of getting into the backfield and disrupting things.  Then you add in the fact that pursuit was slow to arrive and a lot of guys broke down in contain (especially Troy and Lawrence Timmons, but everyone was guilty of it at some point).  There weren't many missed assignments on the offensive line.  For the most part, those guys just got pushed around or someone for Houston just ran past them.  Blown assignments and poor gap discipline can be fixed with practice and time.  Being too slow or not strong enough can't be fixed quite as easily.  The offensive line is struggling because the four guys that aren't named Pouncey aren't very good.  Technique and enthusiasm/hustle are there, but there's a talent void.  Timmons has had a bad season thus far, Troy is freelancing too much, James Farrior appears to have lost another half-step, and LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison have not been getting to the quarterback.  Houston has a fantastic offensive line and a solid defense, but they're not that good.  The Steelers made them look significantly better than they are.  Or, maybe the Steelers are significantly worse than we (read: me) think.
3. Zero turnovers forced, bringing the grand total for the season to: One.
4. The final score could easily have been 31-10.  Or possibly worse.  The Texans dominated the Steelers on both sides of the ball and this was the second game this season where they got absolutely mauled in the trenches.
5. When they had a couple of late chances to rally and tie the score against a team filled with notorious choke artists, they couldn't get it done.  Brown set the Steelers up with a first and 10 on the Houston 48 with 3:33 left to play and Roethlisberger and company went four and out.  They had another shot with 1:02 left and Roethlisberger was pressured relentlessly and intercepted.  Not only did they choke against the choke artists, but my prediction of keeping it close in the fourth quarter and stealing a victory turned out to be wrong.  

But, the worst of the bad news is that the big issues -- poor offensive line play and a defense that lacks the ability to hold the line and close in pursuit -- aren't really fixable.  Signing Flozell Adams won't fix the offensive line.  They're three guys shot -- Legursky, Scott, and Colon -- and the two guys that are coming back aren't a considerable improvement over the guys that replaced them.  In addition, there aren't any real quality options on the free agent market beyond Adams, so the Steelers need to play the hand they were dealt and try to make the most of it.  Playing young guys on defense won't fix the issue that the defense is looking awfully slow and weak, since the young guys aren't better than the old guys, they're just younger.  The schedule is too soft for them to start butchering the roster and "get young now" and there would also be too many holes to fill if they decided to replace everyone that was 30 or older.

These were either issues or looming issues last season, but the line wasn't quite as awful as it's been this year and the defense was playing tough in the trenches and forcing at least some turnovers.  With a regression along both lines and no game-changing or game-saving plays from the defense, the rest of the talent on offense can't close the gap against good teams.

That brings us to some actual good news.  Here is a list of the good teams the Steelers will play between now and the end of the season: Patriots, Hated Ravens, possibly Titans.  Which means it's possible that some guys could improve dramatically, some young guys could plug the holes that are leaking the most water, and some team could knock off New England again, thus clearing a path to the Super Bowl.

If nothing else, a light schedule and a healthy Ben Roethlisberger should be enough to get to ten wins.