Location Location Location: Redskins at Steelers Preview

As the old saying goes, the most important things in real estate are: Location, Location, and Location.

For Sunday's game, the three most important things will be:

1. Stop RGIII.
2. Stop RGIII.
3. Stop RGIII.

If you've been paying attention to the NFL this season, you've heard that this Robert Griffin III person is a pretty good football player.  You may have seen this or possibly this (the awesome starts at about 11 seconds in).  He's the most gifted athlete at the position since Michael Vick, but he's far more accurate (70.4 completion percentage, leads the NFL) and makes better decisions (101.8 quarterback rating, third in the NFL) than Vick did as a rookie, or possibly ever.  He's got plenty of arm strength, has more rushing yards than LeSean McCoy, and more rushing touchdowns than everyone but Arian Foster.

Washington has also done something that no one ever really fully committed to with Vick: Offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan has tailored the offense to take full advantage of Griffin's talents and maximize the offense's effectiveness.  This commitment goes beyond calling a couple rollouts or quarterback draws or read-option plays a game.  Shanahan also has RGIII work out of the shotgun most of the time and calls a bunch of quick slants and screens to take advantage of his quick release and live arm.  This has propped up his completion percentage a bit, but it has also helped his confidence.  The man can create an explosive play out of nothing, with either his legs or his arm.

If they can stop him -- something close to the 10-15-91-0-0 stat line he had in the Falcons game before he left with a concussion -- then the Steelers will roll.  If they can contain him like the Giants did -- 20-28-258-2-1 -- and keep him from running wild like he did against the Vikings, they can win this game.

Actually, a stat line like the one he had against New York is probably the best result they can hope for.  They need to be focused on stopping Griffin, but not so focused and tracking him down and punishing him that they ignore all the other playmakers on Washington's offense.  Rookie running back Alfred Morris is averaging 4.8 yards per carry and has scored five touchdowns.  Some of that is as a result of defenses focusing so much on stopping Griffin that Morris sneaks past them, but he's also a very talented player.  If the Steeler defenders key on Griffin too much, Morris is dangerous enough to beat them.  If they spend too much time and energy trying to anticipate when he's going to scramble and close in on him, that opens up opportunities for the Redskins in the passing game.

Dick LeBeau has a strong track record against rookie quarterbacks and he usually defends them mostly with zone schemes that are designed to defend short, quick passes and spread out as needed if the quarterback is asked to throw downfield (usually late in the game when the Steelers have a lead).  Washington's offense uses mostly short passes by design, which plays right into LeBeau's hand.  The key is going to be avoiding penalties and sure tackling, which are two areas where the Steelers have struggled this season.  They need to be aggressive, Timmons and probably Ryan Clark need to spy Griffin and keep their eyes on him at all times, but they also need to be disciplined.  They need to keep the play in front of them, not get flat footed by over anticipating the play, and make sure they wrap up the guy with the ball and bring him down as soon as he catches it.  The Redskins have one of the best Yards After Catch averages in the NFL and they have plenty of dangerous players not named RGIII.

If they can do all that -- and I think they can -- then they can hold Washington to 24 points, which puts the odds heavily in their favor.  Success on defense Sunday is not going to come down to being faster or younger or more athletic than RGIII.  That's impossible.  It's going to come down to trusting the system, executing the system, and not making any dumb mistakes.

The good news for the Steeler offense is that the Redskins defense sucks something awful.  They're 28th in points allowed (28.6 per game) and have the league's worst pass defense (allowing 328.4 yards per game).  They've also allowed a ton of explosive plays: 29 completions of 20 yards or more and seven completions of 40 yards or more.  It's not just that they give up lots of yards and points, so the Steelers should be able to gain lots of yards and score lots of points, it's that they're vulnerable in the areas where Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, and Mike Wallace excel.  They haven't been lighting things up in the deep passing game thus far this season, but they have the talent and the history together that they should be able to cash in (big time) when the opportunities present themselves.

Washington actually has a decent run defense, but I don't think the Steelers are going to bother running the ball much... except if Pittsburgh gets smacked with some horrific weather and Heinz Field is the consistency of wet cotton candy by halftime.  If it's just cold and a little rainy, the Steelers have the advantage.  If it's cotton candy-like on the field, then the Redskins hold the edge because they run the ball well and don't necessarily need to throw the ball to score points.  That'll make for an ugly game and I just have a feeling the Steelers have just about used up all their ugly karma at home.  Maybe not, but I don't think they pull out another squeaker.

What they need to do is jump out on the Redskins early, get them in a hole and hopefully they'll make some mistakes, keep their foot on Washington's throat, and hold on in the fourth quarter as RGIII attempts a furious comeback.

Not only am I attempting the weather won't be completely horrible, I'm also predicting that all that stuff is going to happen.

Sooooooo... maybe take this prediction with a grain of salt.

Prediction:
Steelers 34, Redskins 24