Good News and Bad News: Chiefs at Steelers

At the end of regulation, Weidman turned to me and we had the following conversation.

Weidman: Here's what's going to happen: Chiefs win the toss, they elect to receive, then they finally play like the Chiefs and turn the ball over.  Suisham wins it with a field goal.

Me: Turnover could also be a pick six.  That also works.

Weidman: No.  Suisham needs to win it.  That's what needs to happen.

Me: OK, then.  That works, too.

The game played out exactly as Weidman had foreseen it.  That was the coolest thing that happened last night.

Sure, the Steelers won, which was cool.  But, it was cool like finding out that the girl you hooked up with at the bar last month isn't pregnant.  Or cool like discovering that the Check Engine light in your car came on because it had been more than six months since your last oil change.  It's more a feeling of relief than anything.

Good news first:

1. A win is a win.  Lest you forget, I am always here to point that fact out, especially after an especially ugly victory.
2. The Steelers committed fewer penalties and allowed fewer sacks than Kansas City.  I don't care if the Chiefs are 1-7, that's still something that's good to keep track of, especially this season.
3. Even though the defense didn't force turnovers in the quantities we expected, they got one when it really mattered.
4. You can talk all you want about how the defense choked and allowed a 4th and 15 conversion that led to Kansas City tying the game, but they also held Matt Cassel to a 46 quarterback rating and held Jamaal Charles in check in the second half.  The game could've gotten out of hand early in the first or midway through the third, but the defense didn't allow that to happen.
5. Lawrence Timmons is having himself one hell of a season.
6. Looks like Ben Roethlisberger isn't done for the season, which is kind of what I expected to hear this morning after watching his right arm dangle at his side as he left the field last night.

Bad News:

1. They didn't run the ball effectively.  That allowed the secondary to play tight on the Steelers receivers, which allowed the cornerbacks to fill in hard in run support, which led to even less effective running.  I think it was a combination of a strong effort by the Chiefs defensive line, a lackluster performance by the interior of the Steeler offensive line, and the fact that Mike Tomlin benched Isaac Redman after he fumbled in the first quarter.  Redman came back, but neither he nor Jonathan Dwyer was able to find a rhythm.  It was a little bit of all those factors, but deciding to take Redman out was the only thing that could really be controlled.  I think it held the running game back, but I might also just be mad because Redman's on my fantasy team and I needed another big game out of him.
2. Jon Gruden was droning on about the fact that the Chiefs were carving the left side of the Steeler defense up in the run game.  At least he was in the first half, when they were.  In the second half, when Ziggy Hood started staying in his lanes and engaging two blockers by shooting the gap like he's supposed to, Gruden didn't mention why they were no longer having success on that side.  Hood didn't suddenly forget what he was supposed to do, he's just inconsistent.  Gap discipline and tackling fundamentals had been two strong areas for the defense the last month.  In the first half, they weren't there, which is part of the reason Kansas City jumped to a 10-0 lead. Again, not taking anything away from the Chiefs offensive line, but that's part of the reason they were successful.
3. With five minutes remaining in the third quarter, Byron Leftwich decided he wanted to throw a pass.  He's still winding up.  Dear God, it takes forever for that man to throw a football.  With the way the protection has been against quality pass rushers, that's going to be an issue.  Oh, hey, look at that!  They play the hated Ravens next week.
4. They're going to have trouble throwing the ball and running the ball without Roethlisberger in the line-up, as evidenced by their production on offense in the second half.
5. One turnover forced in 4+ quarters, zero turnovers forced in regulation, against one of the most generous offenses in the history of the NFL.
6. Really, I could nit pick about a dozen or so different things, but the important thing is that the Chiefs managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and the Steelers got a win.

Roethlisberger hurt his shoulder and no one -- not even the doctors, because that's what tests and MRIs are for -- knows for sure how bad it is and how long he's going to be out.  It doesn't look like something that could land him on injured reserve, but it's definitely not a minor injury and could be a nagging issue (like Troy's calf this season and Woodley's hamstring last season).

As much as I like to kid Leftwich for taking 35 minutes to wind up and throw a pass and Charlie Batch for being 100 years old, they're not bad quarterbacks.  Earlier today, I was talking to a couple of guys I work with and I described Leftwich as "about average" and Batch as "not awesome."  What exactly that means is up for interpretation (hi there, Comments section!), but there's no getting around this fact: Neither of those guys is anywhere near as good as Ben Roethlisberger.

They'll be able to win some games with Leftwich or Batch under center -- they may, possibly, even be able to split with Baltimore -- but they're not winning the division with those guys and they're definitely not making a playoff run without Roethlisberger.

Basically, the really bad news is that we all just have to wait and see just how bad Ben's shoulder is hurt and how long it will take for him to come back.

It's Jamal the Rage: Chiefs at Steelers Preview

Here's the thing: The Steelers need to win this game and they absolutely should win this game.  I went with a horrible, pun-laden title for this post, because there's not a whole lot to say.

The Kansas City Chiefs are an awful, awful team.  We're eight games into the season and they haven't had a lead in regulation yet.  Both of their quarterbacks have been concussed at some point this year.  Jamaal Charles, who was supposed to be a superstar coming off an ACL injury, has been largely underwhelming.  Dwayne Bowe is in a contract year and he's projected to end up with 90 catches for a little over 1,000 yards and six touchdowns.  They just cut cornerback Stanford Routt after signing him to a long term deal in the offseason.  Opposing quarterbacks have a 106.3 passer rating against them.  They have a -20 turnover differential and a -107 point differential.

Meanwhile, the Steelers are certainly trending up.  The offensive line is coming together, the defense is playing tough and disciplined, and special teams is starting to turn the corner.

All this makes it look like Monday night's game is going to be a blowout.  While I hope that happens -- I could always go for a good blowout -- I have a sinking "Tyler Palko Game" feeling about this one.

The Steelers tend to play down to the level of competition.  Many of the guys on Kansas City's defense that were on the roster last year are on the roster this year.  The same defensive backs that were able to jam the Steelers receivers at the line of scrimmage, then turn and run with them down the field last season, are still on the roster.  Last season, the Steelers couldn't get anything going on the ground, then tried to pass their way out of it.  When that failed, they hung on for dear life and narrowly defeated a Chiefs team that started Tyler Palko at quarterback.

Despite all that, I still think the Steelers are going to roll on Monday.

1. They shouldn't struggle running the ball, which should give them balance on offense.  It will also give them the ability to neutralize Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, who are the only two guys they have to fear when Ben Roethlisberger drops back to pass.
2. Since Bruce Arians is not calling the plays, the "dink and dunk" passes that Todd Haley has been calling should make it tough for Kansas City to pressure Roethlisberger and help him get into a rhythm early.
3. Dwayne Bowe does not scare me and I think Ike Taylor matches up with him very well.  I don't think Bowe is going to win this game for the Chiefs.
4. Jamaal Charles is the wild card.  He could take over the game like he did in New Orleans earlier this season and pull Kansas City out of Suckville.  However, I don't see that happening.  He's not getting the ball as much as he used to and, even when he has gotten the ball, he hasn't done much with the opportunities.

Even if Charles does explode on Monday night, I think the Steelers will be able to score enough to offset that.  Actually, considering the fact that I'm starting Charles on two of my fantasy teams, him having a huge game wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing.  Again, even if he does, I don't think the Chiefs have enough to win at Heinz Field.

They have too much to overcome.  Now, in last week's preview, I said that the Steelers had too much to overcome to beat the Giants (facing a really good team, on the road, emotional situation, they'd been under performing on the road), and the Steelers ended up winning.  This situation is different, though, because Kansas City would need to overcome the fact that they're just not very good.  That's too much for any team to overcome in a normal situation, nonetheless playing on the road against a team that's on a roll like the Steelers, who will be pumped up in prime time in front of a home crowd.

But... something like 150 yards and two touchdowns for Charles?  I think that would be just fine.

Prediction:

Steelers 34, Chiefs 17