Here we are. The Steelers have been eliminated from playoff consideration and the best that they can hope for is to finish at .500. If they manage to accomplish that objective, they will have had a better season than the Pirates, though it's fair to argue which team had the more epic collapse in 2012. It's been a long, frustrating season from start to finish, but there have been plenty of highs to go along with the lows.
I think the Browns are improving and I think that they have a bright future now that Mike Holmgren isn't in charge of personnel decisions and Pat Schurmur will most likely not be in charge of anything in the very near future (like Monday).
I think Brandon Weeden is going to be a good quarterback well into his mid-30s, which means that they'll have a solid five years of good quarterback play in Cleveland. Trent Richardson is the second coming of Jamaal Lewis and I'm not looking forward to that guy running roughshod over Steeler defenders for the next decade or so.
Joe Hayden leads a talented, ball-hawking secondary and the front seven has shown improvement over the course of the season, though that's definitely the team's weakness. Well, that and the offensive line. And they're pretty thin at receiver and tight end.
OK, they have some work to do, but I think the Browns and Bengals are trending up and the Steelers and hated Ravens are trending down. Cincinnati took a huge step forward in Week 16 and, according to my Pick Em picks, I think they'll take another big step forward by beating Baltimore this week.
My point is not that the Browns are awesome and that the Steelers suck. My point is that these are two teams headed in different directions that happen to both be eliminated from post season contention.
But, at least as far as Sunday is concerned, the Browns are still the Browns and the Steelers are still the Steelers. Mike Wallace and Heath Miller won't be available, but I don't think that will make a huge difference. The Steelers are going to do what they do on offense and Cleveland will try to stop them. Given that I don't think the Browns are going to force eight turnovers on Sunday, I don't think they'll be able to make enough stops to win this game. Weeden and Richardson have both been declared out and so has Colt McCoy. That means that something called a Thad Lewis is starting at quarterback and a Montario Hardesty (charter member of the Wasted Fantasy Football Pick-up Hall of Fame) will be starting at tailback.
At some point, probably after their fifth consecutive three-and-out, the Browns will realize that there's not that much difference between 5-11 and 6-10 and just lay down. They've done that the past few times they've played the Steelers in the last game of the season and they'll do it again. Because the Browns are still the Browns and the Steelers are still the Steelers.
Next season, who knows? Cleveland could be fighting for a playoff spot and the Steelers could be 5-10.
This season, the Brownies have Thad Lewis, a lame duck head coach, and some dude named Montario starting at running back. The Steelers still have a core group of guys -- the old guard of Keisel, Ryan Clark, Max Starks, Troy Polamalu, Casey Hampton, Larry Foote, Ben Roethlisberger, and even guys on IR like Ike Taylor and Heath -- that will want to finish the season strong and will do whatever it takes to make sure Week 17 isn't yet another losing effort.
Sure, the Steelers went on the road earlier this season and won a game against a division rival with their third string quarterback and a back-up starting at running back. But, they also still had something to play for and those guys were Charlie Batch and Jonathan Dwyer, not Thad Lewis and Montario Hardesty. Not that I think Batch and Dwyer are all-stars, but they've certainly shown enough throughout the season to suggest they're better than Lewis and Hardesty.
Then there's the fact that a big win on Sunday can fool us into believing the Steelers will come back strong next season, carrying momentum through offseason activities and training camp. And the fact that a dismantling of the Browns would show, in some small way, that this team had real potential to be a dominant squad, they just frittered that potential away through injuries and inconsistent play.
I'm not looking at match-ups as much as I'm looking at history, emotion, and mental fortitude. For those reasons, I think the Steelers will roll (which means that the Browns will win).
Prediction:
Steelers 27, Browns 6
Showing posts with label steelers-browns prediction. Show all posts
Showing posts with label steelers-browns prediction. Show all posts
Friday, December 28, 2012
Friday, November 23, 2012
Walking Wounded: Steelers at Browns Preview
I picked the Steelers in this week's Pick Em because I think that they have just enough to beat the Browns. I don't think it's going to be a blowout. I think it's going to be a close, ugly game, though I don't know that it's going to be low scoring. It has all the hallmarks of a game that should be low scoring, so that's probably why it won't be.
The Browns are better and they are headed in the right direction, but they're still a bad team. They have a rookie quarterback and Dick LeBeau tends to destroy rookie quarterbacks (see: Griffin, Robert III). Charlie Batch isn't great and his arm belongs in the Smithsonian, but the one thing he can still do is start a game or two and beat bad teams. He did it last year when the Steelers needed a win over the hapless Rams and I think he can do it again this year.
He'll take care of the ball, Todd Haley will call a conservative game on offense, and the defense should be able to confuse and confound Brandon Weeden enough that Cleveland won't be able to run away with the game.
Now, the big thing that concerns me is Trent Richardson. He's finally healthy -- he had a rib issue for a number games earlier in the season, but didn't miss any time -- he runs hard, and he can catch passes out of the backfield. He's basically a bigger, slower Ray Rice. The Steelers were able to mostly contain Rice on Sunday night and I think they'll be able to do the same against Richardson. They just need to make sure that they wrap him up and bring him to the ground. The tackling has been superb thus far this season, but Richardson is incredibly difficult to bring down. He has live feet and a powerful upper body, so arm tackles aren't going to cut it. They need to square up and fire into his mid-section, otherwise he's going to bounce off defenders and make this game a nightmare to watch.
Since I didn't write a review of the loss to the hated Ravens, I'm going to add a few personnel notes in here.
First of all, if Leftwich hurt his ribs in the first quarter and was ineffective -- and he was -- then Batch needs to go into the game. They have Batch on the roster to go into the game in emergency situations like that. That's the whole reason to have him on the team. If you don't trust him to go into that situation, then don't have him on the roster. If you don't trust him to back up Leftwich when Ben Roethlisberger is hurt, don't have him on the roster. They signed Brian Hoyer earlier this week. Hoyer was Tom Brady's back up in New England for the past three seasons, but they eventually lost faith in him and cut him on August 31st. He's been available since that date. If they didn't trust Batch to come in and Hoyer was available before the Baltimore game, why didn't they just sign him last week? Why not sign him, then he has another week of practice under his belt and can potentially start against the Browns this week?
Ultimately, I blame Mike Tomlin for the loss against Baltimore. He kept an injured Leftwich in the game when Batch couldn't have been any worse. Then he claimed that Leftwich got hurt at some point in the fourth quarter, not the first quarter. But... if Tomlin knew that Leftwich got hurt at some point during the game, why was he still in there to skip the ball 30 yards to Mike Wallace when Wallace was 50 yards away. Batch couldn't have made that throw, either, but Leftwich also shouldn't have been in the position to need to make that throw.
Then you have the fact that they called two timeouts in the red zone to set up a really complicated passing play on third and two that ended up failing. If they scored there, I can't guarantee that they would've won, but they would've at least had the lead. You don't need to call two timeouts to know to hand the ball to Jonathan Dwyer (or Rashard Mendenhall) twice. If the staff didn't trust Leftwich in that situation and needed to make sure they had just the right play called, then they should've played it safe and just handed the ball off.
I have a severe man-crush on Tomlin and I can't stay mad at him, but I have to say Sunday night's loss is on him. Obviously, we need to continue to evaluate and press on. Hopefully, we can stack some wins. It's a process.
Oh, hey, Plax is back in town! I think he can help out in the red zone, but that's about it. Given the fact that he's only valuable in the red zone and opponents know this, that means they're going to take him away in the only situation where he's valuable. Maybe that will open things up for the other guys -- like Heath and Paulson especially -- but I don't think that adds enough value to the team to offset all the negatives that Plax brings to the table. When word came out that they signed Burress, a co-worker of mine IMed me and asked me what I thought about it. I said, "I think it's great. An old head case that gets hurt easily is exactly what this team needs." Even though it was in text, he was able to pick up on the sarcasm.
Overall, this has been a very negative post, but I do believe there is a silver lining. This is a team that excels in the face of adversity. They play their best when their backs are against the wall and they feel as though nobody believes in them. At that point, they circle the wagons and they trust the other guys in the locker room. Tomlin is also at his best in these kinds of situations.
I think they can use that motivation to beat the Browns and possibly beat the Ravens. They only need 3 or 4 more wins to secure a playoff spot, but the division title is probably out of reach at this point. I think the season is far from over and I think there's a real possibility that they could get on a little roll, just in time for Roethlisberger or Leftwich to come back and lead them in the playoffs.
For this week, I say they win, but it isn't pretty.
Prediction:
Steelers 21, Browns 17
The Browns are better and they are headed in the right direction, but they're still a bad team. They have a rookie quarterback and Dick LeBeau tends to destroy rookie quarterbacks (see: Griffin, Robert III). Charlie Batch isn't great and his arm belongs in the Smithsonian, but the one thing he can still do is start a game or two and beat bad teams. He did it last year when the Steelers needed a win over the hapless Rams and I think he can do it again this year.
He'll take care of the ball, Todd Haley will call a conservative game on offense, and the defense should be able to confuse and confound Brandon Weeden enough that Cleveland won't be able to run away with the game.
Now, the big thing that concerns me is Trent Richardson. He's finally healthy -- he had a rib issue for a number games earlier in the season, but didn't miss any time -- he runs hard, and he can catch passes out of the backfield. He's basically a bigger, slower Ray Rice. The Steelers were able to mostly contain Rice on Sunday night and I think they'll be able to do the same against Richardson. They just need to make sure that they wrap him up and bring him to the ground. The tackling has been superb thus far this season, but Richardson is incredibly difficult to bring down. He has live feet and a powerful upper body, so arm tackles aren't going to cut it. They need to square up and fire into his mid-section, otherwise he's going to bounce off defenders and make this game a nightmare to watch.
Since I didn't write a review of the loss to the hated Ravens, I'm going to add a few personnel notes in here.
First of all, if Leftwich hurt his ribs in the first quarter and was ineffective -- and he was -- then Batch needs to go into the game. They have Batch on the roster to go into the game in emergency situations like that. That's the whole reason to have him on the team. If you don't trust him to go into that situation, then don't have him on the roster. If you don't trust him to back up Leftwich when Ben Roethlisberger is hurt, don't have him on the roster. They signed Brian Hoyer earlier this week. Hoyer was Tom Brady's back up in New England for the past three seasons, but they eventually lost faith in him and cut him on August 31st. He's been available since that date. If they didn't trust Batch to come in and Hoyer was available before the Baltimore game, why didn't they just sign him last week? Why not sign him, then he has another week of practice under his belt and can potentially start against the Browns this week?
Ultimately, I blame Mike Tomlin for the loss against Baltimore. He kept an injured Leftwich in the game when Batch couldn't have been any worse. Then he claimed that Leftwich got hurt at some point in the fourth quarter, not the first quarter. But... if Tomlin knew that Leftwich got hurt at some point during the game, why was he still in there to skip the ball 30 yards to Mike Wallace when Wallace was 50 yards away. Batch couldn't have made that throw, either, but Leftwich also shouldn't have been in the position to need to make that throw.
Then you have the fact that they called two timeouts in the red zone to set up a really complicated passing play on third and two that ended up failing. If they scored there, I can't guarantee that they would've won, but they would've at least had the lead. You don't need to call two timeouts to know to hand the ball to Jonathan Dwyer (or Rashard Mendenhall) twice. If the staff didn't trust Leftwich in that situation and needed to make sure they had just the right play called, then they should've played it safe and just handed the ball off.
I have a severe man-crush on Tomlin and I can't stay mad at him, but I have to say Sunday night's loss is on him. Obviously, we need to continue to evaluate and press on. Hopefully, we can stack some wins. It's a process.
Oh, hey, Plax is back in town! I think he can help out in the red zone, but that's about it. Given the fact that he's only valuable in the red zone and opponents know this, that means they're going to take him away in the only situation where he's valuable. Maybe that will open things up for the other guys -- like Heath and Paulson especially -- but I don't think that adds enough value to the team to offset all the negatives that Plax brings to the table. When word came out that they signed Burress, a co-worker of mine IMed me and asked me what I thought about it. I said, "I think it's great. An old head case that gets hurt easily is exactly what this team needs." Even though it was in text, he was able to pick up on the sarcasm.
Overall, this has been a very negative post, but I do believe there is a silver lining. This is a team that excels in the face of adversity. They play their best when their backs are against the wall and they feel as though nobody believes in them. At that point, they circle the wagons and they trust the other guys in the locker room. Tomlin is also at his best in these kinds of situations.
I think they can use that motivation to beat the Browns and possibly beat the Ravens. They only need 3 or 4 more wins to secure a playoff spot, but the division title is probably out of reach at this point. I think the season is far from over and I think there's a real possibility that they could get on a little roll, just in time for Roethlisberger or Leftwich to come back and lead them in the playoffs.
For this week, I say they win, but it isn't pretty.
Prediction:
Steelers 21, Browns 17
Saturday, December 31, 2011
Rivalry Week: Steelers at Browns Preview
I have a bunch of excuses as to why this post is going up on Saturday afternoon as opposed to Thursday or Friday afternoon. The sun was in my eyes, I had a flat tire, there was a car coming, it was end of year at work, I cut my finger on Thursday night and typing sucks. But, I think it ultimately breaks down to the fact that I haven't been able to get fired up for this game.
The Steelers are playing Cleveland and Cleveland does not, in fact, rock. This used to be a rivalry game during the first Cleveland iteration, back when Andre Rison and Matt Stover played for the team, but the second coming of the Browns has been pretty disappointing. Plus which, I came into the season knowing that Cleveland was going to suck -- then again, I also though Detroit and Cincinnati were going to suck, so there's that -- so I circled this game as a potential late-season blowout or as an opportunity for the Steelers to rest their starters. I also thought the Steelers were going to sweep the season series against the hated Ravens, so there's that on top of that.
Then there's the fact that this is the last game of the season and the two teams are, once again, headed in opposite directions. I remembered Week 17 of the 2010 season, where the Steelers were crushing the Browns in the third quarter and my cousin and I decided to head off to the casino. I remembered all the times that the two teams met this century under similar circumstances and couldn't remember any of those games ending well for Cleveland. So, I did what any upstanding member of the Internet would do: I looked it up.
Thus far this century, the Steelers and Browns have faced each other four times either in Week 16 or Week 17 (three times in Week 17, one time in Week 16). All four times (2001, 2005, 2008, and 2010 seasons), the Steelers have been playing for playoff seeding and Cleveland has been playing for pride. Final scores of those games, in order: 28-7, 41-0, 31-0, 41-9. That's some history right there. And, since the Browns roster has turned over so many times in the last ten years, there are way more Steelers that have experienced that history than Browns. The Steelers own the Browns late in the season and they know it. If you play for Cleveland, the only hope for victory is that you weren't a part of that history and you can attempt to start a new chapter.
But, given the talent disparity between the two teams, I don't think that new chapter starts on Sunday. With something to play for, the Steelers will be motivated and angry. With nothing to play for but pride, Cleveland players are probably just looking to get through the season without getting hurt. The only wild card in play is the fact that the Browns players probably aren't very happy with James Harrison and they may be motivated to take some of that anger out on Ben Roethlisberger.
I don't think that Roethlisberger needs to play for the Steelers to win this game and I don't think he should play. But, my feedback and suggestions for the Steelers have largely been met with resistance and restraining orders. He has practiced all week and says that he intends to play at least 25 snaps. Since Ben generally gets what Ben wants, that means Bruce Arians should include a lot of max protect blocking schemes for when the Steelers do decide to pass. I think Cleveland is going to come after him.
More to the point, I think the Browns need to come after the Steelers on offense and defense if they want to win this game. Pat Schurmur has been extremely conservative thus far this season and that conservative approach has led to a 4-11 record. He's overmatched and outgunned and he needs to go big or go home if he wants to win this game. He needs to throw in some gadget plays on offense and throw the ball down the field. He has Seneca Wallace at his disposal and Wallace has enough arm strength to get the ball vertical and enough athletic ability -- especially when you add Josh Cribbs to the mix -- to run some trick plays and catch the Steelers defenders asleep at the switch. Schurmur has the coverage guys in the secondary to take some chances with overload blitzes. He has a lot of the tools necessary to take his best shot at the Steelers and possibly pull out a victory.
The issue is that he's had these tools all season and he hasn't used them. Does he throw the kitchen sink at the Steelers on Sunday, or does he stick with the same game plan that got him to 4-11? When you're 9-6 and fighting for playoff position, you do whatever it takes to win. When you're 4-11 and thinking about the offseason, you do whatever it takes to avoid criticism. Sure, ending the season with a win would be positive, but it would also open up questions as to why Sunday's game plan wasn't used all season.
Will Schurmur go all out or will he dance with who brung him? I think he'll dance with who brung him and that will bring his team another loss on Sunday. Steelers roll.
Prediction:
Steelers 34, Browns 6
The Steelers are playing Cleveland and Cleveland does not, in fact, rock. This used to be a rivalry game during the first Cleveland iteration, back when Andre Rison and Matt Stover played for the team, but the second coming of the Browns has been pretty disappointing. Plus which, I came into the season knowing that Cleveland was going to suck -- then again, I also though Detroit and Cincinnati were going to suck, so there's that -- so I circled this game as a potential late-season blowout or as an opportunity for the Steelers to rest their starters. I also thought the Steelers were going to sweep the season series against the hated Ravens, so there's that on top of that.
Then there's the fact that this is the last game of the season and the two teams are, once again, headed in opposite directions. I remembered Week 17 of the 2010 season, where the Steelers were crushing the Browns in the third quarter and my cousin and I decided to head off to the casino. I remembered all the times that the two teams met this century under similar circumstances and couldn't remember any of those games ending well for Cleveland. So, I did what any upstanding member of the Internet would do: I looked it up.
Thus far this century, the Steelers and Browns have faced each other four times either in Week 16 or Week 17 (three times in Week 17, one time in Week 16). All four times (2001, 2005, 2008, and 2010 seasons), the Steelers have been playing for playoff seeding and Cleveland has been playing for pride. Final scores of those games, in order: 28-7, 41-0, 31-0, 41-9. That's some history right there. And, since the Browns roster has turned over so many times in the last ten years, there are way more Steelers that have experienced that history than Browns. The Steelers own the Browns late in the season and they know it. If you play for Cleveland, the only hope for victory is that you weren't a part of that history and you can attempt to start a new chapter.
But, given the talent disparity between the two teams, I don't think that new chapter starts on Sunday. With something to play for, the Steelers will be motivated and angry. With nothing to play for but pride, Cleveland players are probably just looking to get through the season without getting hurt. The only wild card in play is the fact that the Browns players probably aren't very happy with James Harrison and they may be motivated to take some of that anger out on Ben Roethlisberger.
I don't think that Roethlisberger needs to play for the Steelers to win this game and I don't think he should play. But, my feedback and suggestions for the Steelers have largely been met with resistance and restraining orders. He has practiced all week and says that he intends to play at least 25 snaps. Since Ben generally gets what Ben wants, that means Bruce Arians should include a lot of max protect blocking schemes for when the Steelers do decide to pass. I think Cleveland is going to come after him.
More to the point, I think the Browns need to come after the Steelers on offense and defense if they want to win this game. Pat Schurmur has been extremely conservative thus far this season and that conservative approach has led to a 4-11 record. He's overmatched and outgunned and he needs to go big or go home if he wants to win this game. He needs to throw in some gadget plays on offense and throw the ball down the field. He has Seneca Wallace at his disposal and Wallace has enough arm strength to get the ball vertical and enough athletic ability -- especially when you add Josh Cribbs to the mix -- to run some trick plays and catch the Steelers defenders asleep at the switch. Schurmur has the coverage guys in the secondary to take some chances with overload blitzes. He has a lot of the tools necessary to take his best shot at the Steelers and possibly pull out a victory.
The issue is that he's had these tools all season and he hasn't used them. Does he throw the kitchen sink at the Steelers on Sunday, or does he stick with the same game plan that got him to 4-11? When you're 9-6 and fighting for playoff position, you do whatever it takes to win. When you're 4-11 and thinking about the offseason, you do whatever it takes to avoid criticism. Sure, ending the season with a win would be positive, but it would also open up questions as to why Sunday's game plan wasn't used all season.
Will Schurmur go all out or will he dance with who brung him? I think he'll dance with who brung him and that will bring his team another loss on Sunday. Steelers roll.
Prediction:
Steelers 34, Browns 6
Thursday, December 08, 2011
TGIT: Browns at Steelers Preview
If you're reading this to see if I think the Steelers will win, I think the Steelers will win. As a matter of fact, you could also read this and this, since both Weidman and I both picked them this week.
As far as my confidence level is concerned, I have to say I'm extremely confident that the Steelers will win. I know this only servers to jinx them, but, as I see it, three pairs of severe events need to occur for the Browns to win this game:
Cleveland isn't only facing history and a tougher opponent, there are also fundamental mismatches in terms of the strengths and weaknesses of the two teams and how they approach the game.
The Browns have a solid pass defense, but their run defense is awful, allowing an average of 151 yards per game. They just gave up 290 rushing yards to Baltimore. Pittsburgh's game plan on offense is this:
Establish the run and... oh, wait. The running game isn't working. I guess we should try to pass the ball a little more, especially on first down. If that doesn't work, then go to the shotgun and/or no huddle. If we build a lead, we establish the run and grind out the clock.
Thus far this season, the pass-run differential is 60-40, which means that establishing the run hasn't worked out so well and they needed to start throwing a lot. If they're able to run the ball effectively -- which they should be able to do against a crappy run defense like Cleveland's -- then that sets up their whole offense, opens up play action, and makes the attack balanced. When they've been able to establish the run early, they've been very successful. The Browns offense has been horrendous all year, so they won't be able to outscore a balanced Steeler offense.
Unless Arians decides to change up the game plan -- it's rare, but it has happened -- things are set up so that all the Steelers need to do is play their game and they'll win.
Cleveland is averaging only 14.5 points per game and the most points they've scored in any game is 20. The only reason they've won four games -- and the reason they haven't been blown out much -- is because their defense is keeping them in games. They beat Seattle 6-3, they beat Jacksonville 14-10, they beat Miami 17-16, they hung in there against the Rams and 49ers, and the Bengals needed a comeback victory two weeks ago.
At some point, though, the defense is going to give up. Yes, they're all professionals and they all have a job to do. They're also people and people get tired of bailing out their coworkers time and time again only to watch Bob from operations try to fix the fax machine by scooping ice cream into it. Maybe they keep fighting this week because the Steelers are still a big rival for them. Maybe they finally start mailing it in in the second half. Maybe it happens next week or in Week 16, but it's going to happen. We can only hope it starts tonight.
On defense, the Steelers want to stop the run, pressure the quarterback, and keep everything in front of them. I think they'll be able to do the first two, but playing too much zone against the Browns will give them space to operate underneath. They only throw the ball underneath, so you can't give them space to operate there. Dick LeBeau has show a willingness to play more man coverage this season, starting with the game against the Patriots in Week 8 (side note: I never want to write "Patriots game" because it reminds me of the movie). If he keeps everyone in tight, McCoy doesn't have the arm strength or the weapons to beat them deep and Peyton Hillis and Chris Ooomagooma don't have the long speed to break a big run.
Now, I'm not saying that all the Steelers have to do is show up and they'll win. Showing up is only the first step, with the other step being that they need to play like they play when they play. If they stick to what has worked for them and avoid any of those catastrophic pairs, then they've got this one.
Prediction:
Steelers 27, Browns 13
As far as my confidence level is concerned, I have to say I'm extremely confident that the Steelers will win. I know this only servers to jinx them, but, as I see it, three pairs of severe events need to occur for the Browns to win this game:
- Cleveland scores a defensive touchdown AND a special teams touchdown.
- Cleveland's defense shuts the Steeler offense AND they force several turnovers, causing them to start a number of drives in Steeler territory.
- Pat Schurmur would need to show a willingness to throw the ball deep AND Colt McCoy would need to show some ability to complete deep passes.
Cleveland isn't only facing history and a tougher opponent, there are also fundamental mismatches in terms of the strengths and weaknesses of the two teams and how they approach the game.
The Browns have a solid pass defense, but their run defense is awful, allowing an average of 151 yards per game. They just gave up 290 rushing yards to Baltimore. Pittsburgh's game plan on offense is this:
Establish the run and... oh, wait. The running game isn't working. I guess we should try to pass the ball a little more, especially on first down. If that doesn't work, then go to the shotgun and/or no huddle. If we build a lead, we establish the run and grind out the clock.
Thus far this season, the pass-run differential is 60-40, which means that establishing the run hasn't worked out so well and they needed to start throwing a lot. If they're able to run the ball effectively -- which they should be able to do against a crappy run defense like Cleveland's -- then that sets up their whole offense, opens up play action, and makes the attack balanced. When they've been able to establish the run early, they've been very successful. The Browns offense has been horrendous all year, so they won't be able to outscore a balanced Steeler offense.
Unless Arians decides to change up the game plan -- it's rare, but it has happened -- things are set up so that all the Steelers need to do is play their game and they'll win.
Cleveland is averaging only 14.5 points per game and the most points they've scored in any game is 20. The only reason they've won four games -- and the reason they haven't been blown out much -- is because their defense is keeping them in games. They beat Seattle 6-3, they beat Jacksonville 14-10, they beat Miami 17-16, they hung in there against the Rams and 49ers, and the Bengals needed a comeback victory two weeks ago.
At some point, though, the defense is going to give up. Yes, they're all professionals and they all have a job to do. They're also people and people get tired of bailing out their coworkers time and time again only to watch Bob from operations try to fix the fax machine by scooping ice cream into it. Maybe they keep fighting this week because the Steelers are still a big rival for them. Maybe they finally start mailing it in in the second half. Maybe it happens next week or in Week 16, but it's going to happen. We can only hope it starts tonight.
On defense, the Steelers want to stop the run, pressure the quarterback, and keep everything in front of them. I think they'll be able to do the first two, but playing too much zone against the Browns will give them space to operate underneath. They only throw the ball underneath, so you can't give them space to operate there. Dick LeBeau has show a willingness to play more man coverage this season, starting with the game against the Patriots in Week 8 (side note: I never want to write "Patriots game" because it reminds me of the movie). If he keeps everyone in tight, McCoy doesn't have the arm strength or the weapons to beat them deep and Peyton Hillis and Chris Ooomagooma don't have the long speed to break a big run.
Now, I'm not saying that all the Steelers have to do is show up and they'll win. Showing up is only the first step, with the other step being that they need to play like they play when they play. If they stick to what has worked for them and avoid any of those catastrophic pairs, then they've got this one.
Prediction:
Steelers 27, Browns 13
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