Well, I guess they did overcome, despite the fact that I didn't think there was any way that they could. That's the best news of all. They overcame an emotionally charged, extremely talented Giants team on the road. They overcame scheduling issues, a ten point fourth quarter deficit, some very questionable officiating calls in the first half, and an incredibly foolish decision to fake a field goal instead of going for the points (more on this in the "bad news" section.)
Aside from the fake field goal debacle, special teams actually came up huge in this game. They out-gained the Giants 249-100 on punt and kick returns, Suisham converted his only field goal attempt, Drew Butler didn't have any of his punts returned, dropping two of four inside the 20, and there were no holding or block in the back penalties. This was the first solid effort from the kicking game all season and I hope they build on this success the rest of the season, even if Antonio Brown misses significant time due to his ankle injury.
They dominated at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Isaac Redman averaged 5.7 yards per carry and New York's backs averaged only 3.1. Andre Brown and Ahmad Bradshaw are both quality players and keeping them to 68 yards on 22 carries is a huge win. Eli Manning completed less than half of his passes for 125 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception. The Steelers also managed to sack him twice, which is quite an accomplishment. Not only had the struggled to bring down opposing quarterbacks thus far this season, Eli had only been sacked seven times in eight games coming into Sunday.
Victor Cruz was targeted 11 times and only caught five passes for 67 yards and no touchdowns. Hopefully, that means that Ike Taylor is at least close to his 2011 regular season form and he's left the nightmares of the playoff game at Denver and the early season behind him. Keenan Lewis had two huge penalties called on him (don't agree with the first one that went for 41 yards and set up the touchdown, but whatever), but I thought he played a great game. He was pretty much everywhere, as was Lawrence Timmons. Cortez Allen is vastly improved and LaMarr Woodley is starting to step out of James Harrison's shadow to become the focus of the pass rush.
They had a ten minute edge in time of possession, ran 69 plays to 48 for the Giants, were 6 for 13 on third down and New York was 2 for 10. If you add in kick return yards and subtract penalty yards, they out-gained the Giants 479-242.
Even though the offensive line is still struggling in pass protection -- four sacks and a forced fumble returned for a touchdown on 34 dropbacks -- they're blowing up huge holes on the inside and Foster, Pouncey, and Colon deserve all the credit for that. Paulson and Heath, as well as fullback David Johnson deserve a pat on the back as well.
It was a huge road win, a huge confidence boost, and they deserve a lot of credit for overcoming everything they overcame to pull out the victory. It was the most complete game they've played in all phases thus far this season.
Bad news is that they only won by four points.
All the stats I quoted earlier would point to at least a ten point margin of victory, if not two touchdowns. Ike Taylor let an interception slip through his fingers in the end zone, though it would've been called back on the shoulder-to-arm penalty called on Ryan Clark.
Sure, the Giants scored a defensive touchdown and that's going to tilt things in terms of stats. Yes, the two pass interference penalties on Lewis were each for 40+ yards. Those were all big plays and New York made them.
The Steelers were also 2 for 4 in the red zone -- a problem area for them all year -- and they had three drives that started in Giants territory, but yielded zero points. As they move into the second half of the season, they're going to need to improve their efficiency in the red zone and cut down on penalties.
They appear to have gelled along the offensive line and should be at least good in that area if not great, so long as they can avoid injuries. As much as I hate to agree with Phil Simms, he made a great point about the defense yesterday: They're finally starting to get healthy and a lot of their key players are returning to their old form. Woodley has hopefully put his hamstring issues behind him. Harrison's knee is improving. Casey Hampton and Brett Keisel look like they're at 100%. Larry Foote has been solid. It looks like these two huge problem areas -- consistency on defense and along the offensive line -- are at least no longer problem areas and may even be turning into strengths.
They just need to keep finishing games, put the ball in the end zone when they get inside the 20, and avoid dumb penalties.
It's also concerning me that Mike Tomlin is "going with his gut" a little too much. The fake field goal was a dumb idea. Having Suisham try a 90 yard field goal in Tennessee was a dumb idea. Going for two in Cincy was a dumb idea. Fortunately, only one of those bad calls has cost the Steelers a game.
If he wanted to go for the throat and score a touchdown -- or at least a new set of downs -- he should've just handed the ball to Redman and taken his chances. Redman averaged 5.7 yards per carry and gained 90 yards after first contact in yesterday's game. Give him the ball and see what happens. You have a much better chance of a running back that's primary responsibility is taking the ball and running with it gaining a foot and a half than you do pitching it to an awkward Canadian that usually just kicks the ball and watches other people make a play.
Then there's the fact that the kicker is seven yards behind the line of scrimmage when the ball is snapped. He has to make up those seven yards before he gets to a point where he's actually gaining anything. Weidman actually called the fake field goal and I thought he was a crazy person. Turns out, both he and Tomlin were crazy.
Now, I love Mike Tomlin and I can never stay mad at him. The decision didn't cost them the game and we all need to move on. I'm just concerned that, moving forward, Tomlin's gut is going to cost us a game that's much bigger than this one. He had his issues in Super Bowl XLV, he'll have his issues again. His gut will write checks that the Steelers can't cash. I just hope it doesn't come up wrong in a critical point in a bigger game.
But, HEY, the important thing is that they just scored a huge victory -- a game that I had penciled in as a loss at the beginning of the season -- and they appear to be on the right track, headed in the right direction.
Showing posts with label eli manning. Show all posts
Showing posts with label eli manning. Show all posts
Monday, November 05, 2012
Friday, November 02, 2012
We Shall Not Overcome: Steelers at Giants Preview
Ultimately, this game boils down to what Weidman said in NFL Pick Em this week:
"The simple fact is, no matter how good the Steelers looked last week, they've sucked on the road this year. Furthermore, the Giants will be playing for their city this week in post-crisis time. Finally, the Giants are really, really good."
If you want more words than that, I've included them below, but I think the Steelers have too much to overcome in this game to win it.
They need to overcome:
In order to overcome everything they're up against, they need at least two of these four things to happen:
I had remembered that as a close game that they could've won, but really shouldn't have. The Giants won 21-14 and James Harrison snapped a ball out of the end zone, working as the reserve long snapper on the punt team. These are two stable organizations, so the personnel were basically the same as they are today.
Then I actually looked at the box score for that game and realized, dear God, how did the Giants not win by at least two touchdowns. I also realized that, aside from some guys on defense and the quarterbacks, the personnel on both sides of the ball are vastly different. Mewelde Moore was the leading rusher for the Steelers, Nate Washington was the leading receiver, and Limas Sweed caught three passes. The three starting receivers for the Giants were Steve Smith, Plaxico Burress, and Amani Toomer. So... what a difference four years makes. Yikes.
Looking back on that game also made me realize that the 2008 version of the Steeler defense was one for the ages. Four interceptions and a safety by the offense, four drives that started in Steeler territory (including two inside the Steeler 30), and they only allowed 21 points against the defending champs. Impressive stuff, even if they didn't force any turnovers of their own.
The present is of no comfort to me and neither is the past, which makes the future look very, very scary, especially Sunday's game. I just don't think they have it this week.
Prediction:
Giants 27, Steelers 13
"The simple fact is, no matter how good the Steelers looked last week, they've sucked on the road this year. Furthermore, the Giants will be playing for their city this week in post-crisis time. Finally, the Giants are really, really good."
If you want more words than that, I've included them below, but I think the Steelers have too much to overcome in this game to win it.
They need to overcome:
- Injuries. Mendenhall and Dwyer probably won't suit up, which means the back field will be Redman and Batch, which isn't good enough to beat a very talented Giants team. They'll need to be able to run the ball and run it effectively to win and I don't think they'll be able to do that with the guys they have available. Troy isn't playing, Gilbert will miss another game, Woodley and Ryan Clark are probable, but will probably be slowed down by their ailments. Without Troy and Clark to cover the back end and with Woodley not 100% to help James Harrison get to Eli Manning, Victor Cruz and company might have a really big day (provided Ike Taylor doesn't have another huge game).
- The Giants are playing for their city and their fans.
- New York has a lot of players who are good at football.
- With all the issues surrounding Hurricane Sandy and lodging, the Steelers are flying out for the game on Sunday morning. Football players are very routine oriented and anything that messes with their routines messes with them.
In order to overcome everything they're up against, they need at least two of these four things to happen:
- Run the ball effectively. Already mentioned I don't think this will happen.
- Force at least two turnovers. They've forced seven turnovers in seven games, though the Giants aren't especially good at protecting the ball, with eight interceptions and six fumbles (three lost) in eight games.
- Get to Eli. They have only 12 sacks in seven games and Manning has only been sacked seven times in eight games.
- Get a big boost from special teams. I think we can all agree this isn't going to happen. If it does, there will be a holding penalty and a celebration penalty on Antonio Brown or Chris Rainey.
I had remembered that as a close game that they could've won, but really shouldn't have. The Giants won 21-14 and James Harrison snapped a ball out of the end zone, working as the reserve long snapper on the punt team. These are two stable organizations, so the personnel were basically the same as they are today.
Then I actually looked at the box score for that game and realized, dear God, how did the Giants not win by at least two touchdowns. I also realized that, aside from some guys on defense and the quarterbacks, the personnel on both sides of the ball are vastly different. Mewelde Moore was the leading rusher for the Steelers, Nate Washington was the leading receiver, and Limas Sweed caught three passes. The three starting receivers for the Giants were Steve Smith, Plaxico Burress, and Amani Toomer. So... what a difference four years makes. Yikes.
Looking back on that game also made me realize that the 2008 version of the Steeler defense was one for the ages. Four interceptions and a safety by the offense, four drives that started in Steeler territory (including two inside the Steeler 30), and they only allowed 21 points against the defending champs. Impressive stuff, even if they didn't force any turnovers of their own.
The present is of no comfort to me and neither is the past, which makes the future look very, very scary, especially Sunday's game. I just don't think they have it this week.
Prediction:
Giants 27, Steelers 13
Saturday, February 04, 2012
Handicapping the Super Bowl
(Side Note: I'm not sure I can use the words "Super Bowl" to describe tomorrow's game. That has a copyright on it, doesn't it? Now that I have eight followers instead of two, I need to watch out for stuff like this. I've finally crested $6 on Google Ad words -- click the links on the ads, please! -- and I don't want to see my mighty empire come crashing down. But, I'm going to live dangerously.)
If you're here to get gambling tips -- which is a bad move, since I did a horrible job handicapping the Championship Round -- then I like the Giants to win outright (+130) and the Over (53).
Here's why...
The Patriots defense, in my mind, is a constant. They're always bad. They'll give up 24-28 points a game on a consistent basis, but they won 15 games because they consistently put up 30 or more points on offense. This has been especially true during their current ten game win streak. The reason they were able to keep Denver and Baltimore at 20 points or under -- and the hated Ravens could have scored 23 or 27 in that game had a couple things gone their way -- is because those teams don't quality depth at receiver. If New England is facing a team that does have depth at receiver, then they need to decide who to put Julian Edelman on. If you're not familiar with Edelman, he a quarterback-turned-receiver-turned-cornerback who has played more snaps on defense than he has on offense this season. He's a gifted athlete and a hell of a team player, but he is an awful cornerback. In the AFC Championship game, Baltimore was able to get Anquan Boldin isolated on Edelman and Edelman got abused. I like Boldin and I think he's a great player, but he's not very dynamic or explosive. He's also not as explosive as Mario Manningham, Hakeem Nicks, and especially not as explosive as Victor Cruz.
If Kevin Gilbride (offensive coordinator for the Giants) can find a way to match Cruz up on Edelman through formations and motion, then this game is going to get ugly in a hurry. Cruz had a huge game against a significantly better 49ers secondary in the championship round and he's a special player. My guess is that Bill Belichick will focus on taking Cruz away first, but that still leaves Manningham and Nicks and still leaves him with someone to assign Edelman to.
Even if New York isn't able to run the ball effectively and the Patriots play mostly zone to take away the long ball and force Eli Manning to throw the ball into tight spots, it still won't end well for New England. That just means the Giants will be able to mix in some Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. Also, the Patriots zone defense is even worse than their man coverage. I think Belichick realized this about halfway through the season -- right after they lost two straight to the Steelers and Giants -- and switched to more man schemes. He just needed to find a way each game to insulate Edelman by assigning him to the team's worst receiver. New York's worst receiver is still considerably better than Edelman. The opportunities will be there for the Giants on offense and I think that they will be able to take advantage of those opportunities.
So, Eli and company are going to be able to score points. Will they be able to score more than Tom Brady's offense?
For me, this comes down to Rob Gronkowski. He has a high ankle sprain, he's listed as questionable, and he's expected to play. That's fine, but I keep wondering how limited he'll be and how effective he'll be given his limitations. Steeler fans have come to know (and hate) the high ankle sprain and we've had a lot of experience with it over the last two seasons. It's true that Gronkowski is younger than Roethlisberger and he's had two weeks to rest and get better, but I think there's an upper limit of what rest and recovery will do for an injury like this. From everything I've seen and read, it just takes time, and Gronk hasn't had enough time for it to heal fully. He may have a different, less severe, lower grade high ankle sprain than Roethlisberger, but you also can't get a little bit pregnant. You either have a high ankle sprain or you don't. Roethlisberger was able to play through his injury, but he was less effective. Gronkowski will probably be able to play through the pain as well -- and he's getting fitted with a special shoe for the game -- but tight ends need to run more than quarterbacks. I think the injury will slow him down and wear him down, which takes away a big weapon for the Patriots.
Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker are great players, but they're not game breakers like Gronkowski. They'll be able to help Brady out and New England will be able to move the ball, but I don't think either of these guys is going to make a play that will break the game wide open. Welker's also listed as questionable with a knee injury. He'll play, too, but is he 100 percent? I doubt it. He had six catches for 53 yards against Baltimore and six catches for 55 yards against Denver. The numbers against the hated Ravens are understandable, especially considering that Brady struggled in that game. But Brady threw for 363 yards and six touchdowns against the Broncos and Welker ended up with 6/55 (with one touchdown). He's not 100 percent and this offense will not be the same if Hernandez and Deion Branch are their primary weapons.
Then there's the New York pass rush, which is pretty good. They were the key in Super Bowl XLII and they will be the key again. Even with Welker and Gronkowski being limited, this is still a potent Patriots offense with a Hall of Fame quarterback and an outstanding offensive line. New England knows that they'll need to score a ton of points to win this game and they'll be highly motivated to do so. In any game against the Patriots, stopping the offense means getting to Tom Brady with four guys. In New England's three losses -- and near losses to Baltimore and Miami -- the common thread has been that Brady has not had a good game. He threw four picks against the Bills and was ineffective against the Steelers. He had two interceptions and was inconsistent in the red zone against the hated Ravens. Get in Brady's head and you have a chance.
The front four for the Giants know that they are the key to this game. They understand that success on defense begins and ends with them. I think they're up to the task and I think they're ready to get after it.
Still, the Patriots aren't known for rolling over and playing dead. The Giants are going to score a lot of points because of the match-ups and New England is going to score a lot of points because they have to, and because they're still very good. I see a close, high-scoring game, with New York coming out on top.
Prediction:
Giants 31, Patriots 28
If you're here to get gambling tips -- which is a bad move, since I did a horrible job handicapping the Championship Round -- then I like the Giants to win outright (+130) and the Over (53).
Here's why...
The Patriots defense, in my mind, is a constant. They're always bad. They'll give up 24-28 points a game on a consistent basis, but they won 15 games because they consistently put up 30 or more points on offense. This has been especially true during their current ten game win streak. The reason they were able to keep Denver and Baltimore at 20 points or under -- and the hated Ravens could have scored 23 or 27 in that game had a couple things gone their way -- is because those teams don't quality depth at receiver. If New England is facing a team that does have depth at receiver, then they need to decide who to put Julian Edelman on. If you're not familiar with Edelman, he a quarterback-turned-receiver-turned-cornerback who has played more snaps on defense than he has on offense this season. He's a gifted athlete and a hell of a team player, but he is an awful cornerback. In the AFC Championship game, Baltimore was able to get Anquan Boldin isolated on Edelman and Edelman got abused. I like Boldin and I think he's a great player, but he's not very dynamic or explosive. He's also not as explosive as Mario Manningham, Hakeem Nicks, and especially not as explosive as Victor Cruz.
If Kevin Gilbride (offensive coordinator for the Giants) can find a way to match Cruz up on Edelman through formations and motion, then this game is going to get ugly in a hurry. Cruz had a huge game against a significantly better 49ers secondary in the championship round and he's a special player. My guess is that Bill Belichick will focus on taking Cruz away first, but that still leaves Manningham and Nicks and still leaves him with someone to assign Edelman to.
Even if New York isn't able to run the ball effectively and the Patriots play mostly zone to take away the long ball and force Eli Manning to throw the ball into tight spots, it still won't end well for New England. That just means the Giants will be able to mix in some Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. Also, the Patriots zone defense is even worse than their man coverage. I think Belichick realized this about halfway through the season -- right after they lost two straight to the Steelers and Giants -- and switched to more man schemes. He just needed to find a way each game to insulate Edelman by assigning him to the team's worst receiver. New York's worst receiver is still considerably better than Edelman. The opportunities will be there for the Giants on offense and I think that they will be able to take advantage of those opportunities.
So, Eli and company are going to be able to score points. Will they be able to score more than Tom Brady's offense?
For me, this comes down to Rob Gronkowski. He has a high ankle sprain, he's listed as questionable, and he's expected to play. That's fine, but I keep wondering how limited he'll be and how effective he'll be given his limitations. Steeler fans have come to know (and hate) the high ankle sprain and we've had a lot of experience with it over the last two seasons. It's true that Gronkowski is younger than Roethlisberger and he's had two weeks to rest and get better, but I think there's an upper limit of what rest and recovery will do for an injury like this. From everything I've seen and read, it just takes time, and Gronk hasn't had enough time for it to heal fully. He may have a different, less severe, lower grade high ankle sprain than Roethlisberger, but you also can't get a little bit pregnant. You either have a high ankle sprain or you don't. Roethlisberger was able to play through his injury, but he was less effective. Gronkowski will probably be able to play through the pain as well -- and he's getting fitted with a special shoe for the game -- but tight ends need to run more than quarterbacks. I think the injury will slow him down and wear him down, which takes away a big weapon for the Patriots.
Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker are great players, but they're not game breakers like Gronkowski. They'll be able to help Brady out and New England will be able to move the ball, but I don't think either of these guys is going to make a play that will break the game wide open. Welker's also listed as questionable with a knee injury. He'll play, too, but is he 100 percent? I doubt it. He had six catches for 53 yards against Baltimore and six catches for 55 yards against Denver. The numbers against the hated Ravens are understandable, especially considering that Brady struggled in that game. But Brady threw for 363 yards and six touchdowns against the Broncos and Welker ended up with 6/55 (with one touchdown). He's not 100 percent and this offense will not be the same if Hernandez and Deion Branch are their primary weapons.
Then there's the New York pass rush, which is pretty good. They were the key in Super Bowl XLII and they will be the key again. Even with Welker and Gronkowski being limited, this is still a potent Patriots offense with a Hall of Fame quarterback and an outstanding offensive line. New England knows that they'll need to score a ton of points to win this game and they'll be highly motivated to do so. In any game against the Patriots, stopping the offense means getting to Tom Brady with four guys. In New England's three losses -- and near losses to Baltimore and Miami -- the common thread has been that Brady has not had a good game. He threw four picks against the Bills and was ineffective against the Steelers. He had two interceptions and was inconsistent in the red zone against the hated Ravens. Get in Brady's head and you have a chance.
The front four for the Giants know that they are the key to this game. They understand that success on defense begins and ends with them. I think they're up to the task and I think they're ready to get after it.
Still, the Patriots aren't known for rolling over and playing dead. The Giants are going to score a lot of points because of the match-ups and New England is going to score a lot of points because they have to, and because they're still very good. I see a close, high-scoring game, with New York coming out on top.
Prediction:
Giants 31, Patriots 28
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