(Click here to see current NFL Pick Em standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)
Alrighty - All I've got left to play for is pride and finishing strong. Basically, I'm the Browns of this Pick 'Em stupidity.
Carolina at NOLA:
Easy pick to start this out. Carolina has been a disappointment all season, and NOLA is still looking to kick some ass at home.
Buffalo at Pats:
Might as well finish my season's picks with the old tried-and-true "Don't pick against Brady, especially at home" tactic.
Chicago at Minnesota:
Usually, the pick is to take the home team in close games, but I still can't bring myself to pick the Vikings.
Jets at Miami:
Much like the above, I just can't bring myself to pick the Fish, even though they're slightly favored and at home. The Jets have had a rough time of it, but Miami just sucks.
Niners at Rams:
Another easy pick. I still won't pick the Rams until they prove themselves, and the Niners still kick ass. I'd love the Rams to beat them and end their season with a (meaningless) statement, but it's not gonna happen.
Detroit at Pack:
Pack's at home, and Detroit is still Detroit. They're going to the playoffs, and I'm sure they're glad for that. Unless the Pack slacks off to save energy for the post season, then they're going to run away with this. The thought of them slacking off is the only explanation for Vegas favoring Detroit by three and a half when they're playing a team like the Pack at home - a place they haven't lost all season.
Washington at Philly:
Neither team has anything left to play for besides pride. The Eagles need to at least end their season 50/50 so that they're not a total laughing stock (what with their Dream Team and all.) They're at home, and Washington is pathetic.
Indy at Jacksonville:
You know what? Eff it. Indy has won two in a row. I said I wouldn't pick them again until they accomplished that, and they did. I have nothing to lose in my picks, they have nothing to lose (or gain) on the season - I'm going to be bold and pick them on the road to close it out. I'm also going to buy stock on margin and back a land war in Asia. If there's a Sicilian who's willing to wager when death is on the line, I'll take the bet. Screw it.
Tennessee at Houston:
I don't know what to say - Tenn is actually favored on the road for this one. They also have something to play for when Houston doesn't. I'll play the odds and take them.
Seattle at Steelers West:
Neither team has anything to play for, both have the same records, neither is very good...Home team.
Kansas City at Denver:
Sorry KC, no matter who I pick, Denver's gonna screw me. So, I'll be safe and pick them 'cause they're at home.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta:
Not even a question - Atlanta is going to stomp TB into the ground to close this season out.
Baltimore at Bungles:
Okay, the fact is, the Ravens are favored and they know what's on the line here. But they're only favored by a point and a half, and Cincy is going to want to totally screw them. Ravens just got past the Brownies last week - I know - and the road has not been their friend this season. Also, the Ravens have been nice enough to choke for us already this season. Pretty much everything rides on this game for us and for them. Which is going to win out? Cincy's hate for the Ravens and their love for playing the upset card - or the Raven's "have to"? I really don't know. I'm picking the Bungles because I really think they can pull it off - but I'm scared that I'm doing it because I want them to.
Steelers at Browns:
See the above and cast us as the Ravens. I know - it hurt to even type that. But, as I've been saying for years, it's easy to hate the Ravens because we're such similar teams, fans and cultures in so many ways. This game is really no different. The Browns are worse than the Bungles, but they love playing the upset. Also, they almost got Baltimore last week, and we're coming into their house this week. We have to win this one to best the Ravens and the Browns know it. Wouldn't surprise me in the least that they and the Bungles are texting back and forth to plan this shit out. The difference is that I'm picking the Steelers because I know they can beat the Browns...but I'm scared that I'm doing it because I want them to.
San Diego at Oakland:
Might as well pick the Raiders one last time this season. Don't let me down, guys.
Dallas at New York Football Giants:
Pride match right here. Eli Manning is the Manning these days, and that is something. Also, Romo is...well, he's Romo and that's the best he can do. It's late season, and that's not a good time for him. Also, he's hurting bad these days. I think that the Giants are going to come up strong to end the season, and Dallas is going to come up Romo.
NOLA over Carolina
Pats over Buffalo
Chicago over Minnesota
Jets over Miami
Niners over Rams
Pack over Detroit
Philly over Washington
Indy over Jacksonville
Tennessee over Houston
Steelers West over Seattle
Denver over Kansas City
Atlanta over Tampa Bay
Bungles over Baltimore
Steelers over Browns
Oakland over San Diego
New York Football Giants over Dallas
Showing posts with label nfl pools. Show all posts
Showing posts with label nfl pools. Show all posts
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Keller's Picks, Week 17
(Click here to see current NFL Pick Em standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)
Like a lot of NFL teams, I've essentially locked up my seeding at this point in the season. But, Weidman still has something to play for, which means I can't slack off. Now, there are justifiable reasons that I'm making all of these picks, but there are at least a couple where I might be picking based more on what I want to happen rather than what I think will actually happen.
Carolina at NOLA:
Drew Brees has the following QBERT split: Away: 74.3, Home 99.8. Saints are unstoppable at home (ask the Falcons) and Brees needs to defend his shiny new passing record this week so Tom Brady doesn't it steal it out from under him.
Buffalo at New England:
I'd like nothing more than for the Pats and hated Ravens to lose, the Steelers to win, and have the road to the Super Bowl come through Pittsburgh. I'd also like to have a nacho fountain in my dining room and Captain America's shield. Ain't gonna happen.
Chicago at Minnesota:
When in doubt, take the home team. Adrian Peterson is out and the Vikings have one of the worst pass defenses in history, but Matt Forte and Jay Cutler's Infuriating Face are also on injured reserve. I don't trust a McCown brother to put up big numbers, even against a pass defense as woeful as this one.
NY Jets at Miami:
I know. All home teams thus far. The Dolphins took the Pats to the brink last week in Foxborough and I just have this feeling that Rex Ryan's team is going to crap the bed. Nothing more than a feeling, but it's a strong feeling. Plus which, Miami's favored. Which is rare enough that you need to take it when it happens (not the Line of the Week, though).
San Francisco at St. Louis:
If Charlie Batch can beat the Rams by 27, then Jim Harbaugh's practice squad can beat the Rams by 10.
Detroit at Green Bay:
If the Lions still had something to play for, I'd take them. I think the Packers want to finish the season strong and they want to finish 8-0 at Lambeau Field in order to pay back all their shareholders. Since, ya know, those shareholders can't vote, they don't get dividends, and they can't sell their shares. They should at least get something, right?
Washington at Philadelphia:
More of a vote of no confidence in the Redskins than a vote of confidence in the Eagles.
Indianapolis at Jacksonville:
Now that Dan Orlovsky has a taste for victory, he will pursue it at all costs. I think the Colts are on the upswing and the Jags are just trying to limit injuries so they don't have to sit out the first couple of weeks of golf season.
Tennessee at Houston:
Titans have something to play for. Texans don't have anything to play for and TJ Yates is also showing some warts. This one is sneaky, though, since Houston is a three point dog at home.
Seattle at Arizona:
I wish I could quit the Cardinals. I really do.
Kansas City at Denver:
Now we're getting to the part where I start picking what I want to happen. I'm not in the habit of picking against Football Jesus and I don't recommend it. However, he looked absolutely awful against an average Buffalo pass defense last week. The Chiefs have a very good pass defense and I think they could win this game all by themselves on pick sixes and recovered fumbles.
Tampa at Atlanta:
Falcons are tough at home, they're angry that they lost last week, and the Bucs are just dreadful. I know Cam Newton is a good player, but 48 points? C'mon, man!
Baltimore at Cincinnati:
This is a pretty even split between "want to" and "think it will actually happen" so allow me to explain.
Steelers at Cleveland:
I think the Browns are almost as motivated to work on their short game as the Jags. Plus which, the Steelers actually have something to play for.
San Diego at Oakland:
Picking it this way because I want the winner of the AFC West -- whoever it may be -- to finish 8-8. That has been a weird division all year, the games have been tough to pick, and I want people to start screaming about how it's unfair that an 8-8 team gets a home game and an 11-5 team (hello, hated Ravens) has to play on the road. I don't agree that it's unfair, I just want whatever crappy team that wins the AFC West to have to deal with all the whining and nagging for a bit.
Dallas at NY Giants:I think Eli is starting to become a clutch quarterback and I know Romo is not. Also, Romo hurt his throwing hand in Week 16 and injuries like that tend to make it difficult to grip and throw the ball. Cowboys will need to air it out to beat the Giants and I don't think a lame Romo gets it done in December. Or January. Or whatever month it will be at that point.
Line of the Week:
Saints (-9) over Panthers. At this point, I'd need a spread of at least 14 points to pick against New Orleans at home. They're pretty well unstoppable in the Superdome this season.
Moneyline of the Week:
Cincinnati (+113) over Baltimore. I feel more confident about this pick than I do picking the Chargers, but I could just really, really want this to happen.
Over/Under of the Week:
Washington at Philadelphia (46.5, UNDER). That number just seems too high. I know the Dream Team has a lot of talent on offense, but the Redskins are good enough on defense to keep this game from getting out of control. Plus which, you're probably looking at a 34-7 Eagles victory (maybe even 34-10), which is still the Under.
NOLA over Carolina
New England over Buffalo
Minnesota over Chicago
Miami over NY Jets
San Francisco over St. Louis
Green Bay over Detroit
Philadelphia over Washington
Indianapolis over Jacksonville
Tennessee over Houston
Arizona over Seattle
Kansas City over Denver
Atlanta over Tampa
Cincinnati over Baltimore
Steelers over Cleveland
San Diego over Oakland
NY Giants over Dallas
Like a lot of NFL teams, I've essentially locked up my seeding at this point in the season. But, Weidman still has something to play for, which means I can't slack off. Now, there are justifiable reasons that I'm making all of these picks, but there are at least a couple where I might be picking based more on what I want to happen rather than what I think will actually happen.
Carolina at NOLA:
Drew Brees has the following QBERT split: Away: 74.3, Home 99.8. Saints are unstoppable at home (ask the Falcons) and Brees needs to defend his shiny new passing record this week so Tom Brady doesn't it steal it out from under him.
Buffalo at New England:
I'd like nothing more than for the Pats and hated Ravens to lose, the Steelers to win, and have the road to the Super Bowl come through Pittsburgh. I'd also like to have a nacho fountain in my dining room and Captain America's shield. Ain't gonna happen.
Chicago at Minnesota:
When in doubt, take the home team. Adrian Peterson is out and the Vikings have one of the worst pass defenses in history, but Matt Forte and Jay Cutler's Infuriating Face are also on injured reserve. I don't trust a McCown brother to put up big numbers, even against a pass defense as woeful as this one.
NY Jets at Miami:
I know. All home teams thus far. The Dolphins took the Pats to the brink last week in Foxborough and I just have this feeling that Rex Ryan's team is going to crap the bed. Nothing more than a feeling, but it's a strong feeling. Plus which, Miami's favored. Which is rare enough that you need to take it when it happens (not the Line of the Week, though).
San Francisco at St. Louis:
If Charlie Batch can beat the Rams by 27, then Jim Harbaugh's practice squad can beat the Rams by 10.
Detroit at Green Bay:
If the Lions still had something to play for, I'd take them. I think the Packers want to finish the season strong and they want to finish 8-0 at Lambeau Field in order to pay back all their shareholders. Since, ya know, those shareholders can't vote, they don't get dividends, and they can't sell their shares. They should at least get something, right?
Washington at Philadelphia:
More of a vote of no confidence in the Redskins than a vote of confidence in the Eagles.
Indianapolis at Jacksonville:
Now that Dan Orlovsky has a taste for victory, he will pursue it at all costs. I think the Colts are on the upswing and the Jags are just trying to limit injuries so they don't have to sit out the first couple of weeks of golf season.
Tennessee at Houston:
Titans have something to play for. Texans don't have anything to play for and TJ Yates is also showing some warts. This one is sneaky, though, since Houston is a three point dog at home.
Seattle at Arizona:
I wish I could quit the Cardinals. I really do.
Kansas City at Denver:
Now we're getting to the part where I start picking what I want to happen. I'm not in the habit of picking against Football Jesus and I don't recommend it. However, he looked absolutely awful against an average Buffalo pass defense last week. The Chiefs have a very good pass defense and I think they could win this game all by themselves on pick sixes and recovered fumbles.
Tampa at Atlanta:
Falcons are tough at home, they're angry that they lost last week, and the Bucs are just dreadful. I know Cam Newton is a good player, but 48 points? C'mon, man!
Baltimore at Cincinnati:
This is a pretty even split between "want to" and "think it will actually happen" so allow me to explain.
- The Bengals are fighting for their playoff lives while the hated Ravens are playing for seeding.
- Baltimore sucks on the road this year.
- They almost lost to Cleveland at home last week.
- AJ Green should be ready to go and should be motivated to prove that he deserves to go to the Pro Bowl.
- I trust in the Might Ginger.
Steelers at Cleveland:
I think the Browns are almost as motivated to work on their short game as the Jags. Plus which, the Steelers actually have something to play for.
San Diego at Oakland:
Picking it this way because I want the winner of the AFC West -- whoever it may be -- to finish 8-8. That has been a weird division all year, the games have been tough to pick, and I want people to start screaming about how it's unfair that an 8-8 team gets a home game and an 11-5 team (hello, hated Ravens) has to play on the road. I don't agree that it's unfair, I just want whatever crappy team that wins the AFC West to have to deal with all the whining and nagging for a bit.
Dallas at NY Giants:I think Eli is starting to become a clutch quarterback and I know Romo is not. Also, Romo hurt his throwing hand in Week 16 and injuries like that tend to make it difficult to grip and throw the ball. Cowboys will need to air it out to beat the Giants and I don't think a lame Romo gets it done in December. Or January. Or whatever month it will be at that point.
Line of the Week:
Saints (-9) over Panthers. At this point, I'd need a spread of at least 14 points to pick against New Orleans at home. They're pretty well unstoppable in the Superdome this season.
Moneyline of the Week:
Cincinnati (+113) over Baltimore. I feel more confident about this pick than I do picking the Chargers, but I could just really, really want this to happen.
Over/Under of the Week:
Washington at Philadelphia (46.5, UNDER). That number just seems too high. I know the Dream Team has a lot of talent on offense, but the Redskins are good enough on defense to keep this game from getting out of control. Plus which, you're probably looking at a 34-7 Eagles victory (maybe even 34-10), which is still the Under.
NOLA over Carolina
New England over Buffalo
Minnesota over Chicago
Miami over NY Jets
San Francisco over St. Louis
Green Bay over Detroit
Philadelphia over Washington
Indianapolis over Jacksonville
Tennessee over Houston
Arizona over Seattle
Kansas City over Denver
Atlanta over Tampa
Cincinnati over Baltimore
Steelers over Cleveland
San Diego over Oakland
NY Giants over Dallas
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Weidman's Picks, Week 16
(Click here to see current NFL Pick Em standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)
As if I wasn't dug into a hole as it is, we're in a really crappy part of the season, picks-wise. Nothing is predictable. Teams that are locked up can slack off, great teams can get tired (or be broken as hell like the Steelers), bad teams can be underestimated (or play teams that don't give a shit any more) and so on. Pack lost last week, Colts won - it's "Any Given Sunday" with a vengeance.
Houston at Indy
This should be an easy pick, unless Indy surprises everyone again. I doubt it. Houston wins.
Oakland at Kansas City:
Really close game, and Oakland has screwed me way too many times this year. I'm taking the home team by a hair.
Jacksonville at Tennessee:
Tennessee is at home and is the much better team. They should win this one without much trouble.
Miami at Pats:
Always bet on Brady...especially when he's at home versus a lousy team. Another "easy" pick, the Pats should run away with this one.
Steelers West at Bungles:
I hate to keep picking home teams, and I really hate to pick a rival, but Cincy has played stronger than AZ all season, even if their records aren't much different. Unless AZ really mans up for an upset, they will lose this one.
Denver at Buffalo:
Buffalo started strong and I've been lamenting them ever since, what with their fall from grace. Denver has done everything they can to do the opposite.
Rams at Steelers:
This week hurt. A lot. Also, where they were beat up before, the Steelers are even more damaged now on a short week. They're still going to win.
New York Football Giants at Jets:
I hate to once a freakin' gain take a home team, but I have to. No, seriously - I have to. Stupid two teams being in the same stadium... The Jets almost always end strong, and I know that my buddy Flan is sending serious concern rays their way. That's going to swing the balance.
Minnesota at Washington:
Hey, this picking thing is easy!
Tampa at Carolina:
If there's ever a time to put a lien on your house and bet it on the Panthers, it's this week. Even the Pats are only slightly more favored in their game.
Cleveland at Baltimore:
Oh I wish, I wish, I wish I could take the Brownies in this game. I'll be rooting for them the whole time and will give precisely zero shits if I lose this pick. However, I have a better chance of winning this damned pick 'em pool that I never should have agreed to in the first place.
San Diego at Detroit:
When in doubt...
Philly at Dallas:
Dallas is going to win this by more than one point, no matter what the line is.
San Francisco at Seahawks:
The Niners utterly destroyed us this week. No one has put up more than 75 rushing yards on them all season, no one has rushed into the endzone, they're +45,000 in the turnover battle and the Seattle Seahawks...were a question on Jeopardy tonight (Only team to have the same first 3 letters as their city.) The one point favoring to San Fran is an insult to every good team they've beaten this year.
Chicago at Pack:
Green Bay fell last week, but that's inconsequential. It was like the flaw rumored to be in all Persian rugs just so they won't be perfect. They win.
Atlanta at NOLA:
NOLA still has something to fight for, and they're much better than Atlanta. I'm going to round this out with another home pick.
Houston over Indy
Kansas City over Oakland
Tennessee over Jacksonville
Pats over Miami
Bungles over Steelers West
Denver over Buffalo
Steelers over Rams
Jets over New York Football Giants
Washington over Minnesota
Carolina over Tampa
Baltimore over Cleveland
Detroit over San Diego
Dallas over Philly
San Francisco over Seahawks
Pack over Chicago
NOLA over Atlanta
As if I wasn't dug into a hole as it is, we're in a really crappy part of the season, picks-wise. Nothing is predictable. Teams that are locked up can slack off, great teams can get tired (or be broken as hell like the Steelers), bad teams can be underestimated (or play teams that don't give a shit any more) and so on. Pack lost last week, Colts won - it's "Any Given Sunday" with a vengeance.
Houston at Indy
This should be an easy pick, unless Indy surprises everyone again. I doubt it. Houston wins.
Oakland at Kansas City:
Really close game, and Oakland has screwed me way too many times this year. I'm taking the home team by a hair.
Jacksonville at Tennessee:
Tennessee is at home and is the much better team. They should win this one without much trouble.
Miami at Pats:
Always bet on Brady...especially when he's at home versus a lousy team. Another "easy" pick, the Pats should run away with this one.
Steelers West at Bungles:
I hate to keep picking home teams, and I really hate to pick a rival, but Cincy has played stronger than AZ all season, even if their records aren't much different. Unless AZ really mans up for an upset, they will lose this one.
Denver at Buffalo:
Buffalo started strong and I've been lamenting them ever since, what with their fall from grace. Denver has done everything they can to do the opposite.
Rams at Steelers:
This week hurt. A lot. Also, where they were beat up before, the Steelers are even more damaged now on a short week. They're still going to win.
New York Football Giants at Jets:
I hate to once a freakin' gain take a home team, but I have to. No, seriously - I have to. Stupid two teams being in the same stadium... The Jets almost always end strong, and I know that my buddy Flan is sending serious concern rays their way. That's going to swing the balance.
Minnesota at Washington:
Hey, this picking thing is easy!
Tampa at Carolina:
If there's ever a time to put a lien on your house and bet it on the Panthers, it's this week. Even the Pats are only slightly more favored in their game.
Cleveland at Baltimore:
Oh I wish, I wish, I wish I could take the Brownies in this game. I'll be rooting for them the whole time and will give precisely zero shits if I lose this pick. However, I have a better chance of winning this damned pick 'em pool that I never should have agreed to in the first place.
San Diego at Detroit:
When in doubt...
Philly at Dallas:
Dallas is going to win this by more than one point, no matter what the line is.
San Francisco at Seahawks:
The Niners utterly destroyed us this week. No one has put up more than 75 rushing yards on them all season, no one has rushed into the endzone, they're +45,000 in the turnover battle and the Seattle Seahawks...were a question on Jeopardy tonight (Only team to have the same first 3 letters as their city.) The one point favoring to San Fran is an insult to every good team they've beaten this year.
Chicago at Pack:
Green Bay fell last week, but that's inconsequential. It was like the flaw rumored to be in all Persian rugs just so they won't be perfect. They win.
Atlanta at NOLA:
NOLA still has something to fight for, and they're much better than Atlanta. I'm going to round this out with another home pick.
Houston over Indy
Kansas City over Oakland
Tennessee over Jacksonville
Pats over Miami
Bungles over Steelers West
Denver over Buffalo
Steelers over Rams
Jets over New York Football Giants
Washington over Minnesota
Carolina over Tampa
Baltimore over Cleveland
Detroit over San Diego
Dallas over Philly
San Francisco over Seahawks
Pack over Chicago
NOLA over Atlanta
Keller's Picks, Week 16
(Click here for current NFL Pick Em standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)
I'm looking to add to my lead and make it so that I could lose every game in Week 17 -- with Weidman winning every game -- and still take the season. It occurs to me that we never came up with a tiebreaking procedure.
In the event of a tie, the Championship goes to the guy that won the most individual weeks. In the event of a tie there, the Championship goes to the guy that can recite the alphabet the fastest, without singing the song.
Without further ado, here are my picks for Week 16.
Houston at Indianapolis:
The Colts may have looked frisky last week and the Texans may have looked awful, but TJ Yates just wins football games.
Oakland at Kansas City:
I think Oakland continues to implode, the Chiefs play tough at home, and Kyle Orton, strange as it may sound, still has a better QBERT rating than Carson Palmer. Also, the Raiders are a mess and the Kansas City players, for whatever reason, seem to want to rally around Romeo Crennel. Maybe they lost a bet. It surely can't be that they want him to their their coach, right? Or did everyone forget that he was the worst coach Cleveland ever had (which is saying something)?
Jacksonville at Tennessee:
The Titans gave one away last week, but they still have something to play for and they're still the home team. Also, Chris Johnson looks like he might not be dead after all and Matt Hasselbeck should be available.
Miami at New England:
Never bet against Tom Brady at home. It's good to know that you can still count on some things. Unless you can't.
Arizona at Cincinnati:
I was going to take the Bengals, but I feel as though I can't pick against those pesky Cardinals. I'm tired of picking against them and then watching them screw everything up. The Bengals are starting to wear down and the passing game isn't the same without AJ Green in the line-up. Interesting side note: John Skelton is 4-1 as a starter. If he wins his next two games, some team is going to trade a second round pick for him. It could happen. Just ask Kevin Kolb.
Denver at Buffalo:
After a brief run-in with reality last week, Football Jesus resurrects himself against the Bills. More importantly, Buffalo is a horrible team.
St. Louis at Steelers:
I don't care who plays quarterback. Mike Tomlin and the veteran leadership on this team don't let them drop this one, especially at home. St. Louis may have the worst team in the league. They're on their third quarterback and they've put 415 guys on IR; this from a team that wasn't that great to start with.
NY Giants at NY Jets:
When it doubt, take the... what's that? They play in the same stadium? The NFL schedule makers decided to make this a home game because, "Shut up, that's why"? Got it. Well, the Giants suck at home. This is about the time of year that everyone writes the Jets off and then they close the season by crushing two good teams. The Giants just happen to be the first in line.
Minnesota at Washington:
You know what? Sexy Rexy showed me something last week. The Redskins passing game is starting to find its groove. Quick stat. Whose stats are these: 110.4 rating, 69.1 completion percentage, 3,646 yards passing, 31 touchdowns, and six interceptions? Answer: Quarterbacks who have faced the Vikings this season. Their pass defense is historically awful, is what I'm saying.
Tampa at Carolina:
I hate picking the Panthers, but I can't, in good conscience, pick the Bucs. With the recent spate of coach firings, how does Raheem Morris still have a job? Does he have some compromising pictures of Malcolm Glazer or something? Maybe Glazer's focusing too much of his time on Manchester United.
Cleveland at Baltimore:
Much as I hope the hated Ravens lose, it ain't gonna happen. This is because Cleveland sucks.
San Diego at Detroit:
What do my grandparents and Philip Rivers have in common? They're both money in December. Matthew Stafford has used up all his miracles and Jesus likes Tebow more anyway.
Philadelphia at Dallas:
The Eagles finally woke up and are playing to their potential, Andy Reid is coaching for his job, and Romo + December + Garrett is an extremely beatable combination, even at home. This is my shakiest pick of the week, by the way. Call it a gut feeling.
San Francisco at Seattle:
I think the 49ers keep rolling. They're a great football team and Jim Harbaugh is so competitive that he would keep his starters in to win at Parcheesi.
Chicago at Green Bay:
Hey, I love a good upset as much as the next guy, but the Packers are too good a team to drop a game at home to a McCown brother.
Atlanta at NOLA:
Saints are 6-0 at home and they've been crushing everyone that comes to the Super Dome. I think this is a high scoring game with a lot of fantasy points in play, but NOLA ultimately prevails. Bonus Prediction: Drew Brees sets the record for passing yards in a season on Monday night.
Line of the Week:
St. Louis (+15.5) at Steelers. We don't know who the Steelers are starting at quarterback. Sure, the Rams are awful, but 16 points worse than Charlie Batch's squad? I think not. Take the points.
Moneyline of the Week:
San Diego (+120) at Detroit. Chargers are on fire, Lions aren't. Gotta go with the hot team on this one.
Over/Under of the Week:
Atlanta at New Orleans (53, OVER). I'm feeling a 35-31 barn burner on this one. Write it down. Or, ya know, bookmark this page. You heard it here first.
Houston over Indianapolis
Tennessee over Jacksonville
Kansas City over Oakland
New England over Miami
Arizona over Cincinnati
Denver over Buffalo
Steelers over St. Louis
NY Jets over NY Giants
Washington over Minnesota
Carolina over Tampa
Baltimore over Cleveland
San Diego over Detroit
Philadelphia over Dallas
San Francisco over Seattle
Green Bay over Chicago
NOLA over Atlanta
I'm looking to add to my lead and make it so that I could lose every game in Week 17 -- with Weidman winning every game -- and still take the season. It occurs to me that we never came up with a tiebreaking procedure.
In the event of a tie, the Championship goes to the guy that won the most individual weeks. In the event of a tie there, the Championship goes to the guy that can recite the alphabet the fastest, without singing the song.
Without further ado, here are my picks for Week 16.
Houston at Indianapolis:
The Colts may have looked frisky last week and the Texans may have looked awful, but TJ Yates just wins football games.
Oakland at Kansas City:
I think Oakland continues to implode, the Chiefs play tough at home, and Kyle Orton, strange as it may sound, still has a better QBERT rating than Carson Palmer. Also, the Raiders are a mess and the Kansas City players, for whatever reason, seem to want to rally around Romeo Crennel. Maybe they lost a bet. It surely can't be that they want him to their their coach, right? Or did everyone forget that he was the worst coach Cleveland ever had (which is saying something)?
Jacksonville at Tennessee:
The Titans gave one away last week, but they still have something to play for and they're still the home team. Also, Chris Johnson looks like he might not be dead after all and Matt Hasselbeck should be available.
Miami at New England:
Never bet against Tom Brady at home. It's good to know that you can still count on some things. Unless you can't.
Arizona at Cincinnati:
I was going to take the Bengals, but I feel as though I can't pick against those pesky Cardinals. I'm tired of picking against them and then watching them screw everything up. The Bengals are starting to wear down and the passing game isn't the same without AJ Green in the line-up. Interesting side note: John Skelton is 4-1 as a starter. If he wins his next two games, some team is going to trade a second round pick for him. It could happen. Just ask Kevin Kolb.
Denver at Buffalo:
After a brief run-in with reality last week, Football Jesus resurrects himself against the Bills. More importantly, Buffalo is a horrible team.
St. Louis at Steelers:
I don't care who plays quarterback. Mike Tomlin and the veteran leadership on this team don't let them drop this one, especially at home. St. Louis may have the worst team in the league. They're on their third quarterback and they've put 415 guys on IR; this from a team that wasn't that great to start with.
NY Giants at NY Jets:
When it doubt, take the... what's that? They play in the same stadium? The NFL schedule makers decided to make this a home game because, "Shut up, that's why"? Got it. Well, the Giants suck at home. This is about the time of year that everyone writes the Jets off and then they close the season by crushing two good teams. The Giants just happen to be the first in line.
Minnesota at Washington:
You know what? Sexy Rexy showed me something last week. The Redskins passing game is starting to find its groove. Quick stat. Whose stats are these: 110.4 rating, 69.1 completion percentage, 3,646 yards passing, 31 touchdowns, and six interceptions? Answer: Quarterbacks who have faced the Vikings this season. Their pass defense is historically awful, is what I'm saying.
Tampa at Carolina:
I hate picking the Panthers, but I can't, in good conscience, pick the Bucs. With the recent spate of coach firings, how does Raheem Morris still have a job? Does he have some compromising pictures of Malcolm Glazer or something? Maybe Glazer's focusing too much of his time on Manchester United.
Cleveland at Baltimore:
Much as I hope the hated Ravens lose, it ain't gonna happen. This is because Cleveland sucks.
San Diego at Detroit:
What do my grandparents and Philip Rivers have in common? They're both money in December. Matthew Stafford has used up all his miracles and Jesus likes Tebow more anyway.
Philadelphia at Dallas:
The Eagles finally woke up and are playing to their potential, Andy Reid is coaching for his job, and Romo + December + Garrett is an extremely beatable combination, even at home. This is my shakiest pick of the week, by the way. Call it a gut feeling.
San Francisco at Seattle:
I think the 49ers keep rolling. They're a great football team and Jim Harbaugh is so competitive that he would keep his starters in to win at Parcheesi.
Chicago at Green Bay:
Hey, I love a good upset as much as the next guy, but the Packers are too good a team to drop a game at home to a McCown brother.
Atlanta at NOLA:
Saints are 6-0 at home and they've been crushing everyone that comes to the Super Dome. I think this is a high scoring game with a lot of fantasy points in play, but NOLA ultimately prevails. Bonus Prediction: Drew Brees sets the record for passing yards in a season on Monday night.
Line of the Week:
St. Louis (+15.5) at Steelers. We don't know who the Steelers are starting at quarterback. Sure, the Rams are awful, but 16 points worse than Charlie Batch's squad? I think not. Take the points.
Moneyline of the Week:
San Diego (+120) at Detroit. Chargers are on fire, Lions aren't. Gotta go with the hot team on this one.
Over/Under of the Week:
Atlanta at New Orleans (53, OVER). I'm feeling a 35-31 barn burner on this one. Write it down. Or, ya know, bookmark this page. You heard it here first.
Houston over Indianapolis
Tennessee over Jacksonville
Kansas City over Oakland
New England over Miami
Arizona over Cincinnati
Denver over Buffalo
Steelers over St. Louis
NY Jets over NY Giants
Washington over Minnesota
Carolina over Tampa
Baltimore over Cleveland
San Diego over Detroit
Philadelphia over Dallas
San Francisco over Seattle
Green Bay over Chicago
NOLA over Atlanta
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Weidman's Picks, Week 15
(Click here to see current NFL Pick Em standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)
Jimminy Christmas...my best week yet, and I still lose to Keller. Someone up there hates me. Stupid International Space Station using satellites to change games...
Jacksonville at Atlanta:
Yeah, this one's easy. Their records are almost exactly opposite, Atlanta's at home (good for any team) and 4-2 when they're there (great for them in particular.) Jacksonville has 4 wins on the season, and only one of them is on the road...against Indy. Take Atlanta by a lot.
Cowboys at Tampa:
Cowboys haven't been great on the road this season, but that doesn't stop them from being an okay team. Tampa....isn't - at home or otherwise. Take the Cowboys.
Carolina at Houston:
Once again, we have two teams with almost reverse records with the better team at home. It might seem like a cop-out, but really, at this point in the season it's a good barometer.
Washington at New York Football Giants:
I have had no faith in the Skins since their QB issues earlier this season, and their record backs that up. The Giants have been disappointing, but are still good enough to beat Washington at home.
Miami at Buffalo:
Blah. Who cares? Buffalo laid a big ol' turd this season as far as I'm concerned and Miami is still Miami. But, given the options, I guess I'll take the home team.
Seattle at Chicago:
Seattle has shown a surprising amount of heart this season, and Chicago has shown great capacity to dissapoint. It's going to be close, but take Chi-town.
NOLA at Minnesota:
Don't even need to look at the line for this one. *checks* Really? That close? I know NOLA's on the road and it's cold up there, but six points? Seriously? That's it? Pfft.
Bungles at Rams:
Bungles bungled their playoff chances last week, but they get a freebie against the Rams this week. I will not pick the Rams in any match-up until they win two in a row again. 2017's gonna be exciting when they win against the Colts.
Tennessee at Indy:
Another one where I don't need check the l- Seriously? The same line as Nola over the Vikings?
Okay, Vegas...
Pack at Kansas City:
Yes, the Pack's on the road, but as I said, I'm not picking against them until they lose - and even then, it's subject to review.
Detroit at Oakland:
This one is really close. Really, really close. Detroit has the better record and a one-point advantage...but they've been self-destructing of late. Then again, so has Oakland, but they're at home.
Pats at Denver:
I'm gonna be "safe" and not bet against Brady. Change it up a bit.
Jets at Philly:
Philly is favored and they're playing their hated Jets at home. Don't care. Dream Team has not managed to come up big much this season, and the Jets are a solid team who managed to beat the Pats at home.
Cleveland at Steelers West:
It feels nice to be able to favor Steelers West again. Not only does it make me happy that they're probably going to win, but they worsen the record of a division "rival" while they're at it.
Baltimore at San Diego:
Normally, under two point swing, I take the home team. However, the Ravens can't afford to lose any ground to us, and I don't think they're going to start this week.
Steelers at Niners
This is my most painful pick of the week. Steelers are on the road, Ben's iffy, Pouncy's iffy, Harrison's suspended. Depending on where you look, the line is even-to-slightly-favoring-the-Niners. Rule is to take the home team in this situation. If Ben plays, they might win, but he'd also be a liability. If he doesn't play, there's rumors of activating Dixon...or we're stuck with Batch. That's the clincher...so it's tough. The other thing to consider is that the Steelers are roughly 2-1 historically on Monday nights. The final addition is that, like the Ravens, they are in a must-win race. Ben plays, Steelers maybe win. He doesn't, they definitely lose. Since the assumption right now is that Ben is going to play because he has to, take the Steelers. If you can hold your pick until the weekend and things are a bit more clear, do so.
Atlanta over Jacksonville
Cowboys over Tampa
Houston over Carolina
New York Football Giants over Washington
Buffalo over Miami
Chicago over Seattle
NOLA over Minnesota
Bungles over Rams
Tennessee over Indy
Pack over Kansas City
Oakland over Detroit
Pats over Denver:
Jets over Philly
Steelers West over Cleveland
Baltimore over San Diego:
Steelers over Niners
Jimminy Christmas...my best week yet, and I still lose to Keller. Someone up there hates me. Stupid International Space Station using satellites to change games...
Jacksonville at Atlanta:
Yeah, this one's easy. Their records are almost exactly opposite, Atlanta's at home (good for any team) and 4-2 when they're there (great for them in particular.) Jacksonville has 4 wins on the season, and only one of them is on the road...against Indy. Take Atlanta by a lot.
Cowboys at Tampa:
Cowboys haven't been great on the road this season, but that doesn't stop them from being an okay team. Tampa....isn't - at home or otherwise. Take the Cowboys.
Carolina at Houston:
Once again, we have two teams with almost reverse records with the better team at home. It might seem like a cop-out, but really, at this point in the season it's a good barometer.
Washington at New York Football Giants:
I have had no faith in the Skins since their QB issues earlier this season, and their record backs that up. The Giants have been disappointing, but are still good enough to beat Washington at home.
Miami at Buffalo:
Blah. Who cares? Buffalo laid a big ol' turd this season as far as I'm concerned and Miami is still Miami. But, given the options, I guess I'll take the home team.
Seattle at Chicago:
Seattle has shown a surprising amount of heart this season, and Chicago has shown great capacity to dissapoint. It's going to be close, but take Chi-town.
NOLA at Minnesota:
Don't even need to look at the line for this one. *checks* Really? That close? I know NOLA's on the road and it's cold up there, but six points? Seriously? That's it? Pfft.
Bungles at Rams:
Bungles bungled their playoff chances last week, but they get a freebie against the Rams this week. I will not pick the Rams in any match-up until they win two in a row again. 2017's gonna be exciting when they win against the Colts.
Tennessee at Indy:
Another one where I don't need check the l- Seriously? The same line as Nola over the Vikings?
Okay, Vegas...
Pack at Kansas City:
Yes, the Pack's on the road, but as I said, I'm not picking against them until they lose - and even then, it's subject to review.
Detroit at Oakland:
This one is really close. Really, really close. Detroit has the better record and a one-point advantage...but they've been self-destructing of late. Then again, so has Oakland, but they're at home.
Pats at Denver:
I'm gonna be "safe" and not bet against Brady. Change it up a bit.
Jets at Philly:
Philly is favored and they're playing their hated Jets at home. Don't care. Dream Team has not managed to come up big much this season, and the Jets are a solid team who managed to beat the Pats at home.
Cleveland at Steelers West:
It feels nice to be able to favor Steelers West again. Not only does it make me happy that they're probably going to win, but they worsen the record of a division "rival" while they're at it.
Baltimore at San Diego:
Normally, under two point swing, I take the home team. However, the Ravens can't afford to lose any ground to us, and I don't think they're going to start this week.
Steelers at Niners
This is my most painful pick of the week. Steelers are on the road, Ben's iffy, Pouncy's iffy, Harrison's suspended. Depending on where you look, the line is even-to-slightly-favoring-the-Niners. Rule is to take the home team in this situation. If Ben plays, they might win, but he'd also be a liability. If he doesn't play, there's rumors of activating Dixon...or we're stuck with Batch. That's the clincher...so it's tough. The other thing to consider is that the Steelers are roughly 2-1 historically on Monday nights. The final addition is that, like the Ravens, they are in a must-win race. Ben plays, Steelers maybe win. He doesn't, they definitely lose. Since the assumption right now is that Ben is going to play because he has to, take the Steelers. If you can hold your pick until the weekend and things are a bit more clear, do so.
Atlanta over Jacksonville
Cowboys over Tampa
Houston over Carolina
New York Football Giants over Washington
Buffalo over Miami
Chicago over Seattle
NOLA over Minnesota
Bungles over Rams
Tennessee over Indy
Pack over Kansas City
Oakland over Detroit
Pats over Denver:
Jets over Philly
Steelers West over Cleveland
Baltimore over San Diego:
Steelers over Niners
Keller's Picks, Week 15
(Click here to see current NFL Pick Em standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)
Jacksonville at Atlanta:
Atlanta is tough at home, they're still playing for something, their run defense is good enough to contain MJD, the Jags changed everything but the receptionist that answers the phone this week, and they don't have anything to play for. Um... maybe The Major Appliance puts it all together this week? I think not.
Dallas at Tampa:
I know it's Romo in December, but Tampa is awful. I don't care that they're at home. They're a mess.
Carolina at Houston:
Everyone loves TJ Yates now that he's 2-0 and has proved to be clutch, but I'm unconvinced. But, still gotta take the Texans at home given the fact that they're facing a horrid run defense and they have Arian Foster and Ben Tate. Also, I think the Houston D tries to honor Wade Philips by murdering Cam Newton.
Washington at NY Giants:
Giants stay on a roll, Redskins continue to try to convince Dan Snyder to make yet another coaching change.
Miami at Buffalo:
I picked the Dolphins last week and they let me down. Then they fired James Gandolfini. And they're on the road. Even given all that, the Bills have about 615 key guys on IR (damn you Fred Jackson!) and I think the fact that some guys for Miami are still playing for their jobs turns the tide in their favor.
Seattle at Chicago:
Wow. This... this game is gonna be hard to watch. I really have no idea who will win. My only hope is that this game is somehow blacked out. When in doubt, take the home team.
NOLA at Minnesota:
The Saints have not played great on the road, but Minnesota plays in a dome. Drew Brees loves him some sweet, sweet dome action. Plus which, the Vikings are awful.
Cincinnati at St. Louis:
You know who's more awful than the Vikings? The Rams. They're on their third string quarterback, their eighth string cornerback, and Steven Jackson is probably hoping that The Rapture comes so that this will all end and he can die dreadlocked, respected, and rich.
Tennessee at Indianapolis:
Three road teams in a row. Wow. Well, so, Indy's gotta win a game eventually, right? Right? Eh. Not on Sunday.
Green Bay at Kansas City:
That Aaron Rodgers, he's pretty good. He's got a QBERT rating that's approaching the coveted 100 mark. The Chiefs might start Ricky Stanzi, who kinda looks like Spicoli from Fast Times at Ridgemont High, but not as dynamic. The Packers are gonna win this game and Todd Haley got fired, so I'm gonna leave you with this.
Detroit at Oakland:
Need to pick a home team, I'm still off the Lions bandwagon, and the Raiders are finally getting healthy.
New England at Denver:
Never bet against Football Jesus. Wait. I got that wrong. Here's the thing: No one has come up with a way to stop the rolling Holy Hand Grenade that is Football Jesus, but he hasn't faced Bill Belichick yet and Belichick is the closest thing NFL coaching ranks have to an anti-Christ. You take the devil you know over the Football Jesus you can't quantify on the QBERT scale. Also, never bet against Tom Brady.
NY Jets at Philadelphia:
The Eagles can't stop the run, the Jets always turn it on in December, and I think Rex Ryan wants to make a statement. Philly is still favored in this game and I'm not sure why. Because they're at home? Because they beat Miami last week? I'm really not sure.
Cleveland at Arizona:
So, the Browns are on the road and they couldn't manage to beat the Steelers last week when they were facing a one-legged quarterback. Add to the mix that their quarterback may not be sure what day it is and you've got an easy pick: Steelers West.
Baltimore at San Diego:
Maybe I'm just being optimistic. But, the Chargers players really seem to want to rally to save Norv Turner's job (for reasons that I don't understand) and they usually play out of their minds in December. They're big and physical on offense and defense and they match up well against the hated Ravens. If this game were in Baltimore, I'd have to take them. I just think that the desperation for San Diego, the December mojo, and the home crowd carry the Chargers.
Steelers at San Francisco:
This is assuming Ben Roethlisberger plays. If Dennis Dixon or Charlie Batch starts, then the 49ers take this one. I think San Francisco will be fired up for this game and most of the players on this squad are not accustomed to playing on Monday night. I think that the Steelers with Roethlisberger can overcome that. The Steelers without Roethlisberger do not.
Line of the Week:
Arizona (-6.5) over Cleveland. They're at home, Cleveland sucks, and the Cardinals are kind of hitting their stride right now. If a concussed Colt McCoy strolls onto the field, Arizona wins by at least a touchdown.
Moneyline of the Week:
Jets (+130) over Eagles. I honestly don't know how Philly is favored in this game. By three points. Did Rex Ryan have some kind of leaked foot fetish video where he's sucked on Mark Sanchez's toes and that would cause a distraction? I'm stumped.
Over/Under of the Week:
Carolina at Houston (45, UNDER). I think the Texans take the air out of the ball and keep this one tight. They've been involved in low scoring games since Yates took over. Plus which, it's going to be hard for the Panthers to score a bunch of points if Cam Newton ends up murdered.
Atlanta over Jacksonville
Dallas over Tampa
Houston over Carolina
NY Giants over Washington
Miami over Buffalo
Chicago over Seattle
NOLA over Minnesota
Cincinnati over St. Louis
Tennessee over Indianapolis
Green Bay over Kansas City
Oakland over Detroit
New England over Denver
NY Jets over Philadelphia
Arizona over Cleveland
San Diego over Baltimore
Steelers over San Francisco
Jacksonville at Atlanta:
Atlanta is tough at home, they're still playing for something, their run defense is good enough to contain MJD, the Jags changed everything but the receptionist that answers the phone this week, and they don't have anything to play for. Um... maybe The Major Appliance puts it all together this week? I think not.
Dallas at Tampa:
I know it's Romo in December, but Tampa is awful. I don't care that they're at home. They're a mess.
Carolina at Houston:
Everyone loves TJ Yates now that he's 2-0 and has proved to be clutch, but I'm unconvinced. But, still gotta take the Texans at home given the fact that they're facing a horrid run defense and they have Arian Foster and Ben Tate. Also, I think the Houston D tries to honor Wade Philips by murdering Cam Newton.
Washington at NY Giants:
Giants stay on a roll, Redskins continue to try to convince Dan Snyder to make yet another coaching change.
Miami at Buffalo:
I picked the Dolphins last week and they let me down. Then they fired James Gandolfini. And they're on the road. Even given all that, the Bills have about 615 key guys on IR (damn you Fred Jackson!) and I think the fact that some guys for Miami are still playing for their jobs turns the tide in their favor.
Seattle at Chicago:
Wow. This... this game is gonna be hard to watch. I really have no idea who will win. My only hope is that this game is somehow blacked out. When in doubt, take the home team.
NOLA at Minnesota:
The Saints have not played great on the road, but Minnesota plays in a dome. Drew Brees loves him some sweet, sweet dome action. Plus which, the Vikings are awful.
Cincinnati at St. Louis:
You know who's more awful than the Vikings? The Rams. They're on their third string quarterback, their eighth string cornerback, and Steven Jackson is probably hoping that The Rapture comes so that this will all end and he can die dreadlocked, respected, and rich.
Tennessee at Indianapolis:
Three road teams in a row. Wow. Well, so, Indy's gotta win a game eventually, right? Right? Eh. Not on Sunday.
Green Bay at Kansas City:
That Aaron Rodgers, he's pretty good. He's got a QBERT rating that's approaching the coveted 100 mark. The Chiefs might start Ricky Stanzi, who kinda looks like Spicoli from Fast Times at Ridgemont High, but not as dynamic. The Packers are gonna win this game and Todd Haley got fired, so I'm gonna leave you with this.
Detroit at Oakland:
Need to pick a home team, I'm still off the Lions bandwagon, and the Raiders are finally getting healthy.
New England at Denver:
Never bet against Football Jesus. Wait. I got that wrong. Here's the thing: No one has come up with a way to stop the rolling Holy Hand Grenade that is Football Jesus, but he hasn't faced Bill Belichick yet and Belichick is the closest thing NFL coaching ranks have to an anti-Christ. You take the devil you know over the Football Jesus you can't quantify on the QBERT scale. Also, never bet against Tom Brady.
NY Jets at Philadelphia:
The Eagles can't stop the run, the Jets always turn it on in December, and I think Rex Ryan wants to make a statement. Philly is still favored in this game and I'm not sure why. Because they're at home? Because they beat Miami last week? I'm really not sure.
Cleveland at Arizona:
So, the Browns are on the road and they couldn't manage to beat the Steelers last week when they were facing a one-legged quarterback. Add to the mix that their quarterback may not be sure what day it is and you've got an easy pick: Steelers West.
Baltimore at San Diego:
Maybe I'm just being optimistic. But, the Chargers players really seem to want to rally to save Norv Turner's job (for reasons that I don't understand) and they usually play out of their minds in December. They're big and physical on offense and defense and they match up well against the hated Ravens. If this game were in Baltimore, I'd have to take them. I just think that the desperation for San Diego, the December mojo, and the home crowd carry the Chargers.
Steelers at San Francisco:
This is assuming Ben Roethlisberger plays. If Dennis Dixon or Charlie Batch starts, then the 49ers take this one. I think San Francisco will be fired up for this game and most of the players on this squad are not accustomed to playing on Monday night. I think that the Steelers with Roethlisberger can overcome that. The Steelers without Roethlisberger do not.
Line of the Week:
Arizona (-6.5) over Cleveland. They're at home, Cleveland sucks, and the Cardinals are kind of hitting their stride right now. If a concussed Colt McCoy strolls onto the field, Arizona wins by at least a touchdown.
Moneyline of the Week:
Jets (+130) over Eagles. I honestly don't know how Philly is favored in this game. By three points. Did Rex Ryan have some kind of leaked foot fetish video where he's sucked on Mark Sanchez's toes and that would cause a distraction? I'm stumped.
Over/Under of the Week:
Carolina at Houston (45, UNDER). I think the Texans take the air out of the ball and keep this one tight. They've been involved in low scoring games since Yates took over. Plus which, it's going to be hard for the Panthers to score a bunch of points if Cam Newton ends up murdered.
Atlanta over Jacksonville
Dallas over Tampa
Houston over Carolina
NY Giants over Washington
Miami over Buffalo
Chicago over Seattle
NOLA over Minnesota
Cincinnati over St. Louis
Tennessee over Indianapolis
Green Bay over Kansas City
Oakland over Detroit
New England over Denver
NY Jets over Philadelphia
Arizona over Cleveland
San Diego over Baltimore
Steelers over San Francisco
Wednesday, December 07, 2011
Weidman's Picks, Week 14
(Click here to see current NFL Pick Em Standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)
At this point, I really need Keller to lose Internet access for the remainder of the season for me to win by sweet, sweet default. However, I'm not a quitter, and I'm playing for pride at this point, just like...
Cleveland at Steelers:
Okay, here's the deal. The Brownies are number 4 with a bullet in our division, they're practically 0-for-the-century against the Steelers at home, they're not entirely sure what 1st and 10 means....buuuuuuuuuut, they've made it their team identity to eff up other teams' seasons. We can't lose any more divisional games because of the hated Ravens, and that includes this one. I don't think there's a chance in hell the Steelers lose, but I reserve the right of "I told ya so."
Kansas City at Jets:
KC isn't a scary team, but they're not a bad team. However, the Jets are a scary, and they're at home.
Tampa Bay at Jacksonville:
This is a "pick the home team" situation. There's nothing salvageable about either team.
New England at Washington:
Finally, a road team pick. Unsurprisingly, it's 'cause it's New England matching up with Washington. Washington is on a lose-way-more-than-they-win streak, and NE is NE. Not much hope for the home team in this fight.
Atlanta at Carolina:
The line is real close on this one, with a slight edge to the Falcons. Normally in a situation like this, I'd be leaning towards the home team despite that. However, that home team is the Panthers, and I think that line is very generous towards them
Indianapolis at Baltimore:
We really, really need the Hated Ravens to lose one in the worst way. That being said, I will have no problems with this pick being wrong. Even so, the Ravens are in - if not a can't lose - a shouldn't lose situation, even without holding the tiebreaker over us. The Colts can make a statement with a win, but at this point, the only team they could win against is one in garbage time on the season.
Philly at Miami:
It takes a lot for me to take Miami, but the Eagles are there to provide that "lot" for me.
Minnesota at Detroit:
Easy pick is easy. Even with a key suspension that I'm not going to spell again this week, Detroit is more than prepared to stop the Vikings.
NOLA at Tennessee:
Saints are only two games to the better in the standings and are on the road, but I think they'll still pull this off without much trouble.
Houston at Cincinnati:
Cincy is still in the hunt, despite losing to us. They need to win this one. They're at home, which works in their favor, but the Texans are good. It's not going to be easy, but they will pull this out because they have to.
Chicago at Denver:
Records are totally matched up, and they're both pretty good teams this season. Denver has surprised me a number times this year, but Chicago has also infuriated me multiple times. I have no choice but to pick the home team.
San Francisco at Steelers West:
As stated before, Steelers West has nothing to play for, not even pride. The Niners are scary, scary good. Good enough that home field advantage has no meaning.
Buffalo at San Diego:
*sigh* I will admit that Buffalo did not perform as well as I thought they would this season. I shouldn't be too surprised, I guess. San Diego is better than their record and at home.
Oakland at Pack:
Sorry, Oakland. Nothin' but love for ya...but Aaron Rogers and his cold-weather warriors don't give a crap. Green Bay is so secure in their awesomeness that they're offering more "stock" to suckers- er...fans out there. Even though they could drop the rest of the season and be fine, I suspect that they want to get out a Sharpie and make use of a premade book cover.
New York Football Giants at Dallas:
Home field advantage takes this one. Giants are good, but I don't think they have a road win in them in Texas.
Rams at Seahawks:
The Rams are terrible at home, they're terrible on the road, they're terrible while grocery shopping...The Seahawks are merely "not great," except at home where they're "good." Take them.
Steelers over Cleveland
Jets over Kansas City
Jacksonville over Tampa Bay
New England at Washington:
Atlanta over Carolina
Baltimore over Indianapolis
Miami over Philly
Detroit over Minnesota
NOLA over Tennessee
Cincinnati over Houston
Denver over Chicago
San Francisco at Steelers West
San Diego over Buffalo
Pack over Oakland
Dallas over New York Football Giants
Seahawks over Rams
At this point, I really need Keller to lose Internet access for the remainder of the season for me to win by sweet, sweet default. However, I'm not a quitter, and I'm playing for pride at this point, just like...
Cleveland at Steelers:
Okay, here's the deal. The Brownies are number 4 with a bullet in our division, they're practically 0-for-the-century against the Steelers at home, they're not entirely sure what 1st and 10 means....buuuuuuuuuut, they've made it their team identity to eff up other teams' seasons. We can't lose any more divisional games because of the hated Ravens, and that includes this one. I don't think there's a chance in hell the Steelers lose, but I reserve the right of "I told ya so."
Kansas City at Jets:
KC isn't a scary team, but they're not a bad team. However, the Jets are a scary, and they're at home.
Tampa Bay at Jacksonville:
This is a "pick the home team" situation. There's nothing salvageable about either team.
New England at Washington:
Finally, a road team pick. Unsurprisingly, it's 'cause it's New England matching up with Washington. Washington is on a lose-way-more-than-they-win streak, and NE is NE. Not much hope for the home team in this fight.
Atlanta at Carolina:
The line is real close on this one, with a slight edge to the Falcons. Normally in a situation like this, I'd be leaning towards the home team despite that. However, that home team is the Panthers, and I think that line is very generous towards them
Indianapolis at Baltimore:
We really, really need the Hated Ravens to lose one in the worst way. That being said, I will have no problems with this pick being wrong. Even so, the Ravens are in - if not a can't lose - a shouldn't lose situation, even without holding the tiebreaker over us. The Colts can make a statement with a win, but at this point, the only team they could win against is one in garbage time on the season.
Philly at Miami:
It takes a lot for me to take Miami, but the Eagles are there to provide that "lot" for me.
Minnesota at Detroit:
Easy pick is easy. Even with a key suspension that I'm not going to spell again this week, Detroit is more than prepared to stop the Vikings.
NOLA at Tennessee:
Saints are only two games to the better in the standings and are on the road, but I think they'll still pull this off without much trouble.
Houston at Cincinnati:
Cincy is still in the hunt, despite losing to us. They need to win this one. They're at home, which works in their favor, but the Texans are good. It's not going to be easy, but they will pull this out because they have to.
Chicago at Denver:
Records are totally matched up, and they're both pretty good teams this season. Denver has surprised me a number times this year, but Chicago has also infuriated me multiple times. I have no choice but to pick the home team.
San Francisco at Steelers West:
As stated before, Steelers West has nothing to play for, not even pride. The Niners are scary, scary good. Good enough that home field advantage has no meaning.
Buffalo at San Diego:
*sigh* I will admit that Buffalo did not perform as well as I thought they would this season. I shouldn't be too surprised, I guess. San Diego is better than their record and at home.
Oakland at Pack:
Sorry, Oakland. Nothin' but love for ya...but Aaron Rogers and his cold-weather warriors don't give a crap. Green Bay is so secure in their awesomeness that they're offering more "stock" to suckers- er...fans out there. Even though they could drop the rest of the season and be fine, I suspect that they want to get out a Sharpie and make use of a premade book cover.
New York Football Giants at Dallas:
Home field advantage takes this one. Giants are good, but I don't think they have a road win in them in Texas.
Rams at Seahawks:
The Rams are terrible at home, they're terrible on the road, they're terrible while grocery shopping...The Seahawks are merely "not great," except at home where they're "good." Take them.
Steelers over Cleveland
Jets over Kansas City
Jacksonville over Tampa Bay
New England at Washington:
Atlanta over Carolina
Baltimore over Indianapolis
Miami over Philly
Detroit over Minnesota
NOLA over Tennessee
Cincinnati over Houston
Denver over Chicago
San Francisco at Steelers West
San Diego over Buffalo
Pack over Oakland
Dallas over New York Football Giants
Seahawks over Rams
Keller's Pick, Week 14
(Click here to see current NFL Pick Em Standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)
I finished last week at 12-4 overall, 3-1 in swing games, and I was 3-for-3 in line of the week, moneyline of the week, and over/under of the week. I'm on one week hot streak, which means I have to stay humble. I gotta take it one week at a time. I'm just here to help the ball club and, the Good Lord willing, things will work out.
Cleveland at Steelers:
The Browns love to play spoiler this time of year, so I'm slightly nervous heading into this one, but only slightly. Do I think it's possible that Cleveland pulls the upset? Sure, anything is possible through Jesus. However, Jesus is a little busy rooting for Tebow right now, which means the Steelers roll.
Kansas City at NY Jets:
Rex Ryan's club may be a mess right now and Mark "Dirty" Sanchez may have a QBERT rating that's hovering between 35 and 36.42 right now, but you can't take the Chiefs. You can't take a team that lost its star running back, starting quarterback, and star safety, then began the Tyler Palko Era only to have that go down in flames, only to sign Kyle Freaking Orton and hope he could spark the offense, then have Orton injury his throwing hand two snaps in. This team is cursed. As they say in the tow truck business, a wreck is something you leave behind you.
Tampa at Jacksonville:
When in doubt, take the home team. I know the Jags got blown out on Monday night, but Tampa was really, really bad before Josh Freeman got hurt. Now they've probably moved to the realm of being pitiable.
New England at Washington:
Holy crap. Look at the closing schedule for the Patriots. I think McNeese State is on there.
Atlanta at Carolina:
The Falcons lost to the immortal TJ Yates and his 18.67 QBERT rating last week and the Panthers made me pity the Bucs, but I'm still off the Carolina bandwagon. I also don't want to pick all home teams and I just have a feeling the Falcons pull this one out. They're the veteran team and this is the kind of game they're supposed to win. Let's see if they have the stones to do it.
Indianapolis at Baltimore:
I'm not picking this because the Colts are awash in a void of sucktasticocity, or because the hated Ravens have a really good team, or because they're at home, or because they don't have an epic joke job like this left in them for the rest of the season. I like crab cakes. There. I said it.
Philly at Miami:
I talked myself out of picking the Seahawks over the Eagles last week even though I had a bunch of compelling reasons for taking them. Here are my compelling reasons to take the Dolphins:
Minnesota at Detroit:
Vikings can't stop the pass, all the Lions can do is throw the ball. I think Detroit has enough of a pass rush even without Suh to get to Christian Ponder without blitzing.
NOLA at Tennessee:
The Saints have been unpredictable on the road and the Titans are a sneaky team. I just keep thinking this turns into a shootout and Tennessee doesn't have the firepower to keep up. But... if you trust the Titans enough and think that NOLA honks another winnable game on the road, the moneyline (Tennessee +171) looks might tempting.
Houston at Cincinnati:
TJ Yates did just enough to win against the Falcons at home last week, but I don't think "just enough" will be "enough enough" on the road against a solid Bengals team. Cincinnati has a tough run defense, which will slow down Arian Foster and Ben Tate enough to force Yates to win this game. Even if the Texans jump out to a lead, I trust the Mighty Ginger to come back and keep Cincy's playoff hopes alive.
Chicago at Denver:
Football Jesus versus the Stormin' Mormon! As it turns out, Caleb Hanie went to Colorado State, not BYU, he's from Dallas, and he was born on September 11th, 1985 (thanks, Wikipedia!). I have no idea whether he's a Mormon or not. I just assume everyone named Caleb is a Mormon. Even women.
At any rate, the Broncos are on a roll and at home and the Bears' offense is falling apart. It won't be easy -- what worth fighting for ever is? -- but Denver gets the win.
San Francisco at Arizona:
They get another efficient division win. San Francisco is a boring team that just wins. They will fall victim to the Shottenheimer Effect when they get to the playoffs, but I think they'll get the #2 seed.
Buffalo at San Diego:
I'm still off the Bills bandwagon and the Chargers -- especially Philip Rivers -- usually play their best in December. And they're at home. And Fred Jackson will be unavailable because he was placed on IR. Adam Schefter Tweeted that, when Jackson woke up from surgery, he immediately opened his laptop and cackled at my fantasy football line-up.
Oakland at Green Bay:
Keep taking the Packers until they lose. Mike McCarthy said today that he doesn't plan to rest Aaron Rodgers. That's bad news for any team that wants to keep Green Bay from going undefeated.
NY Giants at Dallas:
I'm not picking for the Giants as much as I'm picking against Romo in December. The guy is 7-10, but it really seems like he's 1-16. In a division game against a New York team that must be feeling like they let one get away against the Pack, I think the Boys find a way to blow this one.
St. Louis at Seattle:
I have been Romo-in-December-esque this season when it comes to handicapping the Seahawks, so this pick is probably wrong. All I know is that Seattle plays tough at home, they looked good against Philly last week, and the Rams are an awful, awful team.
Line of the Week:
San Francisco (-3.5) over Arizona. I don't see this game being close. As long as the 49ers remember not to kick the ball to Patrick Peterson, they'll win this one by at least a touchdown. They clinched their division, but they still need to keep winning to secure a bye in the postseason.
Moneyline of the Week:
Giants (+167) over Cowboys. I only picked one underdog this week. That worries me. But, the lines for the favorites were so intense that you'd almost lose money by winning it if you bet the favorite.
Over/Under of the Week:
Chiefs at Jets (36.5, UNDER). Kansas City has comfortably made the under in six of their last seven games. I think that trend continues this week, regardless of whether the Chiefs lost by two touchdowns or not. They won't score enough on offense to move past the over.
Steelers over Cleveland
NY Jets over Kansas City
Jacksonville over Tampa
New England over Washington
Atlanta over Carolina
Baltimore over Indianapolis
Miami over Philadelphia
Detroit over Minnesota
NOLA over Tennessee
Cincinnati over Houston
Denver over Chicago
San Francisco over Arizona
San Diego over Buffalo
Green Bay over Oakland
NY Giants over Dallas
Seattle over St. Louis
I finished last week at 12-4 overall, 3-1 in swing games, and I was 3-for-3 in line of the week, moneyline of the week, and over/under of the week. I'm on one week hot streak, which means I have to stay humble. I gotta take it one week at a time. I'm just here to help the ball club and, the Good Lord willing, things will work out.
Cleveland at Steelers:
The Browns love to play spoiler this time of year, so I'm slightly nervous heading into this one, but only slightly. Do I think it's possible that Cleveland pulls the upset? Sure, anything is possible through Jesus. However, Jesus is a little busy rooting for Tebow right now, which means the Steelers roll.
Kansas City at NY Jets:
Rex Ryan's club may be a mess right now and Mark "Dirty" Sanchez may have a QBERT rating that's hovering between 35 and 36.42 right now, but you can't take the Chiefs. You can't take a team that lost its star running back, starting quarterback, and star safety, then began the Tyler Palko Era only to have that go down in flames, only to sign Kyle Freaking Orton and hope he could spark the offense, then have Orton injury his throwing hand two snaps in. This team is cursed. As they say in the tow truck business, a wreck is something you leave behind you.
Tampa at Jacksonville:
When in doubt, take the home team. I know the Jags got blown out on Monday night, but Tampa was really, really bad before Josh Freeman got hurt. Now they've probably moved to the realm of being pitiable.
New England at Washington:
Holy crap. Look at the closing schedule for the Patriots. I think McNeese State is on there.
Atlanta at Carolina:
The Falcons lost to the immortal TJ Yates and his 18.67 QBERT rating last week and the Panthers made me pity the Bucs, but I'm still off the Carolina bandwagon. I also don't want to pick all home teams and I just have a feeling the Falcons pull this one out. They're the veteran team and this is the kind of game they're supposed to win. Let's see if they have the stones to do it.
Indianapolis at Baltimore:
I'm not picking this because the Colts are awash in a void of sucktasticocity, or because the hated Ravens have a really good team, or because they're at home, or because they don't have an epic joke job like this left in them for the rest of the season. I like crab cakes. There. I said it.
Philly at Miami:
I talked myself out of picking the Seahawks over the Eagles last week even though I had a bunch of compelling reasons for taking them. Here are my compelling reasons to take the Dolphins:
- They're playing considerably better of late, especially at home. Last week, they crushed a very good Raiders team.
- I think Miami head coach James Gandolfini wants to keep his job very badly and the players want him to stick around. As a result, they'll keep playing strong down the stretch, finish 8-8 or 7-9, and everyone will be talking about them in the offseason as a "sleeper" team because they came on strong late in the year and won seven of their last nine. At that point, everyone will forget that they lost seven of their first seven. My point is this: The Eagles are trending down and the Dolphins are trending up.
- Michael Vick always has a bad game his first start back after an injury. You can tell he's playing at 75% in an attempt to not get re-injured.
Minnesota at Detroit:
Vikings can't stop the pass, all the Lions can do is throw the ball. I think Detroit has enough of a pass rush even without Suh to get to Christian Ponder without blitzing.
NOLA at Tennessee:
The Saints have been unpredictable on the road and the Titans are a sneaky team. I just keep thinking this turns into a shootout and Tennessee doesn't have the firepower to keep up. But... if you trust the Titans enough and think that NOLA honks another winnable game on the road, the moneyline (Tennessee +171) looks might tempting.
Houston at Cincinnati:
TJ Yates did just enough to win against the Falcons at home last week, but I don't think "just enough" will be "enough enough" on the road against a solid Bengals team. Cincinnati has a tough run defense, which will slow down Arian Foster and Ben Tate enough to force Yates to win this game. Even if the Texans jump out to a lead, I trust the Mighty Ginger to come back and keep Cincy's playoff hopes alive.
Chicago at Denver:
Football Jesus versus the Stormin' Mormon! As it turns out, Caleb Hanie went to Colorado State, not BYU, he's from Dallas, and he was born on September 11th, 1985 (thanks, Wikipedia!). I have no idea whether he's a Mormon or not. I just assume everyone named Caleb is a Mormon. Even women.
At any rate, the Broncos are on a roll and at home and the Bears' offense is falling apart. It won't be easy -- what worth fighting for ever is? -- but Denver gets the win.
San Francisco at Arizona:
They get another efficient division win. San Francisco is a boring team that just wins. They will fall victim to the Shottenheimer Effect when they get to the playoffs, but I think they'll get the #2 seed.
Buffalo at San Diego:
I'm still off the Bills bandwagon and the Chargers -- especially Philip Rivers -- usually play their best in December. And they're at home. And Fred Jackson will be unavailable because he was placed on IR. Adam Schefter Tweeted that, when Jackson woke up from surgery, he immediately opened his laptop and cackled at my fantasy football line-up.
Oakland at Green Bay:
Keep taking the Packers until they lose. Mike McCarthy said today that he doesn't plan to rest Aaron Rodgers. That's bad news for any team that wants to keep Green Bay from going undefeated.
NY Giants at Dallas:
I'm not picking for the Giants as much as I'm picking against Romo in December. The guy is 7-10, but it really seems like he's 1-16. In a division game against a New York team that must be feeling like they let one get away against the Pack, I think the Boys find a way to blow this one.
St. Louis at Seattle:
I have been Romo-in-December-esque this season when it comes to handicapping the Seahawks, so this pick is probably wrong. All I know is that Seattle plays tough at home, they looked good against Philly last week, and the Rams are an awful, awful team.
Line of the Week:
San Francisco (-3.5) over Arizona. I don't see this game being close. As long as the 49ers remember not to kick the ball to Patrick Peterson, they'll win this one by at least a touchdown. They clinched their division, but they still need to keep winning to secure a bye in the postseason.
Moneyline of the Week:
Giants (+167) over Cowboys. I only picked one underdog this week. That worries me. But, the lines for the favorites were so intense that you'd almost lose money by winning it if you bet the favorite.
Over/Under of the Week:
Chiefs at Jets (36.5, UNDER). Kansas City has comfortably made the under in six of their last seven games. I think that trend continues this week, regardless of whether the Chiefs lost by two touchdowns or not. They won't score enough on offense to move past the over.
Steelers over Cleveland
NY Jets over Kansas City
Jacksonville over Tampa
New England over Washington
Atlanta over Carolina
Baltimore over Indianapolis
Miami over Philadelphia
Detroit over Minnesota
NOLA over Tennessee
Cincinnati over Houston
Denver over Chicago
San Francisco over Arizona
San Diego over Buffalo
Green Bay over Oakland
NY Giants over Dallas
Seattle over St. Louis
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Weidman's Picks, Week 13
(Click here to see current NFL Pick Em Standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)
I had a really good week last week, but I unfortunately dropped a swing game to Keller. Not looking good for me down the stretch, but I'm gonna soldier on. I have a feeling Keller's gonna drop all his games this week and make me Supreme Awesome Guy.
Philly at Seattle
Yet another birdie fight for the season, and once again, it's two kinda crappy teams. The Dream Team is favored, but I don't care - Philly chokes in important matchups, they're traveling across the country and Seattle is at home.
Jets at Skins
Skins are just kinda limping along now, and the Jets are still playing for something. Despite being on the road, they've got this one.
Chiefs at Bears
Despite winning, we really let the Chiefs off the hook last week. Now way that game should have been that close. Word is, Palko is still getting the start even though they have Orton now. Given that, being on the road and the fact that the Bears are a much better team, KC loses this one decisively.
Titans at Bills
Too close to call. I like the Bills in this game, but it's still not that simple. When in doubt, take the home team.
Oakland at Miami
Okay, Miami is actually favored in this one, and I think that mainly has to do with them being at home and having a good record against Oakland. The important thing to remember is that they're still Miami. They're terrible, and Oakland is a strong force in their division riding a winning streak.
Bungles at Steelers
Okay, the Steelers are heavily favored in this one, and I think that mainly has to do with them being at home and having a good record against Oakland. The important thing to remember is that they're still the Steelers. They play down to the level of their opponents, and the Bungles are very good this season...but they're still the Steelers and this is a must-win game for them in front of a home crowd. Win, yes. Ass-stomping, no.
Falcons at Texans
I'm gonna flip a coin here. *flip* Crap. It landed on its edge. Well, I took the home team above, so I'll take the road team here.
Broncos at Vikings
No coin flip here, but it's still going to be close. The Vikings are at home, but this week's theme is remembering who teams are - and they're still the Vikings.
Panthers at Bucs.
The Panthers won last week. Yippie for them. Against the Colts. No yippie for me and my pick. This week, the Bucs will win one for my honor.
Colts at Pats.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA *deep breath, sip of water* BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Ahem
Pats.
Ravens at Browns
There's one irrelevant team in our division, and that's the Browns. They do like to play to ruin other teams' seasons, but it won't happen this week. Baltimore smells blood in the water and they're not going to drop a division game if they can help it.
Pack at New York Football Giants
Pack keeps a'rollin, all season long.
Cowboys at Steelers West
Cards' season is over. You know it, I know it, they know it. Instead of playing for pride, I think they're playing for next season now.
Rams at Niners
You don't even need to look at the line to know that this is the second most obvious game of the week.
Detroit at Saints
With Ndamukong Suh* doing his best James Harrison impression, Detroit is on the road without a key player, and NOLA is undefeated at home. Lions have been good on the road, but missing that key piece of their defense and the Saints being unstoppable at home...yeah, it's the Saints in this one.
*Why, yes, I copy-and-pasted his name. Thank you for asking.
Chargers at Jags
Hmm...boring MNF game. The Jags are the lesser team, and they just lost their coach. Chargers are coming in and spanking them.
Seattle over Philly
Jets over Skins
Bears over Chiefs
Bills over Titans
Oakland over Miami
Steelers over Bungles
Falcons over Texans
Broncos over Vikings
Bucs over Panthers
Pats over Colts
Ravens over Browns
Pack over New York Football Giants
Cowboys over Steelers West
Niners over Rams
Saints over Detroit
Chargers over Jags
I had a really good week last week, but I unfortunately dropped a swing game to Keller. Not looking good for me down the stretch, but I'm gonna soldier on. I have a feeling Keller's gonna drop all his games this week and make me Supreme Awesome Guy.
Philly at Seattle
Yet another birdie fight for the season, and once again, it's two kinda crappy teams. The Dream Team is favored, but I don't care - Philly chokes in important matchups, they're traveling across the country and Seattle is at home.
Jets at Skins
Skins are just kinda limping along now, and the Jets are still playing for something. Despite being on the road, they've got this one.
Chiefs at Bears
Despite winning, we really let the Chiefs off the hook last week. Now way that game should have been that close. Word is, Palko is still getting the start even though they have Orton now. Given that, being on the road and the fact that the Bears are a much better team, KC loses this one decisively.
Titans at Bills
Too close to call. I like the Bills in this game, but it's still not that simple. When in doubt, take the home team.
Oakland at Miami
Okay, Miami is actually favored in this one, and I think that mainly has to do with them being at home and having a good record against Oakland. The important thing to remember is that they're still Miami. They're terrible, and Oakland is a strong force in their division riding a winning streak.
Bungles at Steelers
Okay, the Steelers are heavily favored in this one, and I think that mainly has to do with them being at home and having a good record against Oakland. The important thing to remember is that they're still the Steelers. They play down to the level of their opponents, and the Bungles are very good this season...but they're still the Steelers and this is a must-win game for them in front of a home crowd. Win, yes. Ass-stomping, no.
Falcons at Texans
I'm gonna flip a coin here. *flip* Crap. It landed on its edge. Well, I took the home team above, so I'll take the road team here.
Broncos at Vikings
No coin flip here, but it's still going to be close. The Vikings are at home, but this week's theme is remembering who teams are - and they're still the Vikings.
Panthers at Bucs.
The Panthers won last week. Yippie for them. Against the Colts. No yippie for me and my pick. This week, the Bucs will win one for my honor.
Colts at Pats.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA *deep breath, sip of water* BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Ahem
Pats.
Ravens at Browns
There's one irrelevant team in our division, and that's the Browns. They do like to play to ruin other teams' seasons, but it won't happen this week. Baltimore smells blood in the water and they're not going to drop a division game if they can help it.
Pack at New York Football Giants
Pack keeps a'rollin, all season long.
Cowboys at Steelers West
Cards' season is over. You know it, I know it, they know it. Instead of playing for pride, I think they're playing for next season now.
Rams at Niners
You don't even need to look at the line to know that this is the second most obvious game of the week.
Detroit at Saints
With Ndamukong Suh* doing his best James Harrison impression, Detroit is on the road without a key player, and NOLA is undefeated at home. Lions have been good on the road, but missing that key piece of their defense and the Saints being unstoppable at home...yeah, it's the Saints in this one.
*Why, yes, I copy-and-pasted his name. Thank you for asking.
Chargers at Jags
Hmm...boring MNF game. The Jags are the lesser team, and they just lost their coach. Chargers are coming in and spanking them.
Seattle over Philly
Jets over Skins
Bears over Chiefs
Bills over Titans
Oakland over Miami
Steelers over Bungles
Falcons over Texans
Broncos over Vikings
Bucs over Panthers
Pats over Colts
Ravens over Browns
Pack over New York Football Giants
Cowboys over Steelers West
Niners over Rams
Saints over Detroit
Chargers over Jags
Keller's Pick, Week 13
(Click here to see current Pick Em standings, week-by-week and YTD.)
Had a solid week last week and went 1-0 in swing games, expanding my lead over the increasingly sage Weidman.
This week's games frighten and confuse me, so I'm sure to go 16-0.
Philadelphia over Seattle:
I know the Eagles got crushed by the Pats last week and they're on the road on the west coast without Mike Vick and Jeremy Maclin on four days rest in a tough place to play. Wait. Those are all pretty compelling reasons to take the Hawks. But, Seattle can't exploit Philly's weaknesses on defense and the Eagles will be able to score points. Plus, they've got Vince Young. All Young does is win football games. That's all he do. He was Tebow before Tebow was Tebow.
Carolina at Tampa:
The Bucs can't stop the run, but the Panthers can't run the ball unless it's Cam Newton running it. Still off the Carolina bandwagon and Tampa's at home. That's a sneaky line, though, with the Bucs favored by 3.5. I think they win by a field goal, but not four or more.
Cincinnati at Steelers:
Hey, look at that! It's another weird line (Steelers by 6.5). I don't think they win by a touchdown, but Steeler Nation is probably moving the money in their direction. Steelers already beat the Bengals and I don't think the Might Ginger wins this game on the road. He's done exceptionally well on the road, but I just don't see it.
Atlanta at Houston:
When I was thinking about this write-up, I thought the game was in Atlanta. I thought, "The Falcons are tough at home. If that game was in Houston, I'd take the Texans." That's as good a reason as any to welcome in the TJ Yates Era.
NY Jets at Washington:
More of a vote of no confidence in the Redskins than a vote of confidence for the Jets. This is about the time of year when they wake up and realize that you don't automatically make the playoffs just because you think you're awesome... then they turn it on. That starts here. Hopefully for Santonio Holmes, especially, because I have a must-win fantasy game this week.
Indianapolis at New England:
Interesting note: Dan Orlovsky and Ernie Sims were both on the Detroit team that went 0-16 and they're both on the Colts this year. Another interesting note: Indy is horrible and the Pats aren't, so Tom Brady and company roll.
Oakland at Miami:
The Dolphins are on a roll of sorts, the Raiders are headed in the other direction, Darren McFadden probably still won't be available, and they have no healthy receivers. Plus which, I'm picking like 38 road teams this week, so I need to even things out.
Denver at Minnesota:
FOOTBALL JESUS PARTS THE TWIN CITIES.
Tennessee at Buffalo:
Buffalo lost their ninth starter to injured reserve this week and can't stop the run. Chris Johnson and Javon Ringer are good players. Somehow, the Bills are favored. Something to keep in mind.
Kansas City at Chicago:
The Bears bandwagon is looking awfully desolate at this point, so I'm thinking about jumping off. However, the only thing more awful than Chicago's bandwagon is the Chiefs offense. Unless Kyle Orton and Thomas Jones go all Chad Brown on their former team -- which I don't think happens -- the Bears are going to win this one pretty easy.
Baltimore at Cleveland:
Hated Ravens are well-rested after a dominant Thanksgiving night performance against the 49ers. They know they need to win to stay in the hunt. Aside from playing spoiler, the Browns don't have much going for them.
Dallas at Arizona:
If the Cowboys remember to not kick to Patrick Peterson, they'll be just fine. Steelers West still has an atrocious secondary and Tony Romo, Dez Bryant, and Jason Witten are pretty good.
Green Bay at NY Giants:
Interesting note: Green Bay is a rolling juggernaut and, even if I picked against them, you shouldn't. Keep picking them until they lose. Or until the wrap up the first seed and Mike McCarthy decides to rest the starters. Whichever comes first.
St. Louis at San Francisco:
John Harbaugh's brother is going to have his guys ready to go and fired up. Also, the Rams may secretly be trying to be a worse team than the Colts, if that's possible. Unfortunately for them, it isn't.
Detroit at NOLA:
Did anyone watch the game on Monday night? I sure didn't, but I did notice that the Saints averaged 8.3 yards per play. Every time they snapped the ball, 8.3 yards. I am super glad I dropped Detroit's defense.
San Diego at Jacksonville:
Jaguars owner Wayne Weaver announced that he fired coach Jack Del Rio and plans to sell the team. I'm... thinking they'll be a little distracted. Also, Blaine "That's a Major Appliance, That's Not a Name" Gabbert.
Line of the Week:
Baltimore (-6.5 over Cleveland). Hated Ravens win by at least a touchdown. I don't care that this game is in Cleveland. It could be in Paul Brown's private suite in heaven and Baltimore would still win by a touchdown.
Moneyline of the Week:
Texans (+127) are underdogs at home, but I can't pin my Moneyline of the Week on a rookie quarterback named after a William Shatner character. I'm gonna go Tennessee (+115) over Buffalo.
Over/Under of the Week:
Kansas City at Chicago (37.5). New quarterback + backup quarterback + Chicago in December = UNDER.
Philly over Seattle
Tampa over Carolina
Steelers over Cincinnati
Houston over Atlanta
NY Jets over Washington
New England over Indianapolis
Miami over Oakland
Denver over Minnesota
Tennessee over Buffalo
Chicago over Kansas City
Baltimore over Cleveland
Dallas over Arizona
Green Bay over NY Giants
San Francisco over St. Louis
NOLA over Detroit
San Diego over Jacksonville
Had a solid week last week and went 1-0 in swing games, expanding my lead over the increasingly sage Weidman.
This week's games frighten and confuse me, so I'm sure to go 16-0.
Philadelphia over Seattle:
I know the Eagles got crushed by the Pats last week and they're on the road on the west coast without Mike Vick and Jeremy Maclin on four days rest in a tough place to play. Wait. Those are all pretty compelling reasons to take the Hawks. But, Seattle can't exploit Philly's weaknesses on defense and the Eagles will be able to score points. Plus, they've got Vince Young. All Young does is win football games. That's all he do. He was Tebow before Tebow was Tebow.
Carolina at Tampa:
The Bucs can't stop the run, but the Panthers can't run the ball unless it's Cam Newton running it. Still off the Carolina bandwagon and Tampa's at home. That's a sneaky line, though, with the Bucs favored by 3.5. I think they win by a field goal, but not four or more.
Cincinnati at Steelers:
Hey, look at that! It's another weird line (Steelers by 6.5). I don't think they win by a touchdown, but Steeler Nation is probably moving the money in their direction. Steelers already beat the Bengals and I don't think the Might Ginger wins this game on the road. He's done exceptionally well on the road, but I just don't see it.
Atlanta at Houston:
When I was thinking about this write-up, I thought the game was in Atlanta. I thought, "The Falcons are tough at home. If that game was in Houston, I'd take the Texans." That's as good a reason as any to welcome in the TJ Yates Era.
NY Jets at Washington:
More of a vote of no confidence in the Redskins than a vote of confidence for the Jets. This is about the time of year when they wake up and realize that you don't automatically make the playoffs just because you think you're awesome... then they turn it on. That starts here. Hopefully for Santonio Holmes, especially, because I have a must-win fantasy game this week.
Indianapolis at New England:
Interesting note: Dan Orlovsky and Ernie Sims were both on the Detroit team that went 0-16 and they're both on the Colts this year. Another interesting note: Indy is horrible and the Pats aren't, so Tom Brady and company roll.
Oakland at Miami:
The Dolphins are on a roll of sorts, the Raiders are headed in the other direction, Darren McFadden probably still won't be available, and they have no healthy receivers. Plus which, I'm picking like 38 road teams this week, so I need to even things out.
Denver at Minnesota:
FOOTBALL JESUS PARTS THE TWIN CITIES.
Tennessee at Buffalo:
Buffalo lost their ninth starter to injured reserve this week and can't stop the run. Chris Johnson and Javon Ringer are good players. Somehow, the Bills are favored. Something to keep in mind.
Kansas City at Chicago:
The Bears bandwagon is looking awfully desolate at this point, so I'm thinking about jumping off. However, the only thing more awful than Chicago's bandwagon is the Chiefs offense. Unless Kyle Orton and Thomas Jones go all Chad Brown on their former team -- which I don't think happens -- the Bears are going to win this one pretty easy.
Baltimore at Cleveland:
Hated Ravens are well-rested after a dominant Thanksgiving night performance against the 49ers. They know they need to win to stay in the hunt. Aside from playing spoiler, the Browns don't have much going for them.
Dallas at Arizona:
If the Cowboys remember to not kick to Patrick Peterson, they'll be just fine. Steelers West still has an atrocious secondary and Tony Romo, Dez Bryant, and Jason Witten are pretty good.
Green Bay at NY Giants:
Interesting note: Green Bay is a rolling juggernaut and, even if I picked against them, you shouldn't. Keep picking them until they lose. Or until the wrap up the first seed and Mike McCarthy decides to rest the starters. Whichever comes first.
St. Louis at San Francisco:
John Harbaugh's brother is going to have his guys ready to go and fired up. Also, the Rams may secretly be trying to be a worse team than the Colts, if that's possible. Unfortunately for them, it isn't.
Detroit at NOLA:
Did anyone watch the game on Monday night? I sure didn't, but I did notice that the Saints averaged 8.3 yards per play. Every time they snapped the ball, 8.3 yards. I am super glad I dropped Detroit's defense.
San Diego at Jacksonville:
Jaguars owner Wayne Weaver announced that he fired coach Jack Del Rio and plans to sell the team. I'm... thinking they'll be a little distracted. Also, Blaine "That's a Major Appliance, That's Not a Name" Gabbert.
Line of the Week:
Baltimore (-6.5 over Cleveland). Hated Ravens win by at least a touchdown. I don't care that this game is in Cleveland. It could be in Paul Brown's private suite in heaven and Baltimore would still win by a touchdown.
Moneyline of the Week:
Texans (+127) are underdogs at home, but I can't pin my Moneyline of the Week on a rookie quarterback named after a William Shatner character. I'm gonna go Tennessee (+115) over Buffalo.
Over/Under of the Week:
Kansas City at Chicago (37.5). New quarterback + backup quarterback + Chicago in December = UNDER.
Philly over Seattle
Tampa over Carolina
Steelers over Cincinnati
Houston over Atlanta
NY Jets over Washington
New England over Indianapolis
Miami over Oakland
Denver over Minnesota
Tennessee over Buffalo
Chicago over Kansas City
Baltimore over Cleveland
Dallas over Arizona
Green Bay over NY Giants
San Francisco over St. Louis
NOLA over Detroit
San Diego over Jacksonville
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Weidman's Picks, Week 12
(Click here to see current NFL Pick Em Standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)
Better late than never. Sorry, I just drove 7 hours and I'm updating from my tablet in the middle of nowhere and my closest neighbors are horses and a 19th century graveyard...admitted, better than some of my neighbors back home.
Yay! Gained a little ground back last week and had a really good set of picks. Lets see if I can keep it alive and make some good Turkey Day (week) predictions!
Green Bay at Detroit
Not news: Detroit is going to lose on Thanksgiving
News: It's actually going to be a worthwhile game to watch.
Dolphins at Cowboys
Cowboys are at home, they have a turkey with 5000 drumsticks on the sidelines, Miami sucks...the list goes on. Well, no it doesn't. That's really all that matters. Mmmmm...drumsticks.
San Fran at Baltimore
You know what? I'm going to engage in a little wishful thinking here and say that the Niners are going to pick up a road win against the hated Ravens. Why? They've lost to some crappy teams and barely held off some good teams. Granted, the Niners haven't had the toughest schedule, but they're still playing strong.
Buffalo at Jets
They have tied records, and this could be a tough call...could be, but it's not. Jets.
Bears at Raiders
I know I've been all about the Raiders, but this week, I think it's going to go the Bears way.
Browns at Bungles
Important divisional game. I'd really like the Brownies to win it to chip away at the Bungles' record...but, no. The Bungles are really good, water is no longer wet and the sky is no longer blue. We actually have to worry about them down the stretch.
Vikings at Falcons
Until the Vikings get an overhaul on everything down to their jockstraps and choice of mustard at the concession stand, I can't pick them for anything.
Texans at Jags
See above, apply it to the Jags, but with a little less vehemence.
Arizona at Rams
The battle of who can suck less. Rams win by a hair, but only because they're at home.
Bucs at Titans
Again, tough call, so take the home team.
Panthers at Colts
You heard it hear first - this is the week that the Colts cease to be winless. I've been saying they won't get beaten down all season, and I think that this is the game that they finally do it. They're playing a lousy team, they're at home, they're going to be underestimated just because they're ten games in the hole.
Skins at Hawks
Skins are still quite sad and the Hawks can come through big. Take them at home.
Pats at Eagles
Well, the Eagles hate the Pats that's good for morale. They'll be up for this game and have a boisterous home crowd. Unfortunately for them, the Pats don't care. Pats win.
Denver at Chargers
Tough call. The Broncs are arguably better than the Chargers, but they're on the road. On the other hand, the Chargers generally seem to hate me and the Broncs love to prove me wrong...so, I'm calling the Broncos for once, and we'll see how it plays out.
Pittsburgh at Chiefs
Tyler Palko is starting.
Giants at Saints
Both teams are good. Both teams have lost more than they should have. Saints are better and at home. Neither team is my pick for the Super Bowl, but it's still going to be an entertaining match-up this week.
Green Bay over Detroit
Cowboys over Dolphins
San Fran over Baltimore
Jets over Buffalo
Bears over Raiders
Bungles over Browns
Falcons over Vikings
Texans over Jags
Rams over Arizona
Titans over Bucs
Colts over Panthers
Hawks over Skins
Pats over Eagles
Denver over Chargers
Pittsburgh over Chiefs
Saints over Giants
Better late than never. Sorry, I just drove 7 hours and I'm updating from my tablet in the middle of nowhere and my closest neighbors are horses and a 19th century graveyard...admitted, better than some of my neighbors back home.
Yay! Gained a little ground back last week and had a really good set of picks. Lets see if I can keep it alive and make some good Turkey Day (week) predictions!
Green Bay at Detroit
Not news: Detroit is going to lose on Thanksgiving
News: It's actually going to be a worthwhile game to watch.
Dolphins at Cowboys
Cowboys are at home, they have a turkey with 5000 drumsticks on the sidelines, Miami sucks...the list goes on. Well, no it doesn't. That's really all that matters. Mmmmm...drumsticks.
San Fran at Baltimore
You know what? I'm going to engage in a little wishful thinking here and say that the Niners are going to pick up a road win against the hated Ravens. Why? They've lost to some crappy teams and barely held off some good teams. Granted, the Niners haven't had the toughest schedule, but they're still playing strong.
Buffalo at Jets
They have tied records, and this could be a tough call...could be, but it's not. Jets.
Bears at Raiders
I know I've been all about the Raiders, but this week, I think it's going to go the Bears way.
Browns at Bungles
Important divisional game. I'd really like the Brownies to win it to chip away at the Bungles' record...but, no. The Bungles are really good, water is no longer wet and the sky is no longer blue. We actually have to worry about them down the stretch.
Vikings at Falcons
Until the Vikings get an overhaul on everything down to their jockstraps and choice of mustard at the concession stand, I can't pick them for anything.
Texans at Jags
See above, apply it to the Jags, but with a little less vehemence.
Arizona at Rams
The battle of who can suck less. Rams win by a hair, but only because they're at home.
Bucs at Titans
Again, tough call, so take the home team.
Panthers at Colts
You heard it hear first - this is the week that the Colts cease to be winless. I've been saying they won't get beaten down all season, and I think that this is the game that they finally do it. They're playing a lousy team, they're at home, they're going to be underestimated just because they're ten games in the hole.
Skins at Hawks
Skins are still quite sad and the Hawks can come through big. Take them at home.
Pats at Eagles
Well, the Eagles hate the Pats that's good for morale. They'll be up for this game and have a boisterous home crowd. Unfortunately for them, the Pats don't care. Pats win.
Denver at Chargers
Tough call. The Broncs are arguably better than the Chargers, but they're on the road. On the other hand, the Chargers generally seem to hate me and the Broncs love to prove me wrong...so, I'm calling the Broncos for once, and we'll see how it plays out.
Pittsburgh at Chiefs
Tyler Palko is starting.
Giants at Saints
Both teams are good. Both teams have lost more than they should have. Saints are better and at home. Neither team is my pick for the Super Bowl, but it's still going to be an entertaining match-up this week.
Green Bay over Detroit
Cowboys over Dolphins
San Fran over Baltimore
Jets over Buffalo
Bears over Raiders
Bungles over Browns
Falcons over Vikings
Texans over Jags
Rams over Arizona
Titans over Bucs
Colts over Panthers
Hawks over Skins
Pats over Eagles
Denver over Chargers
Pittsburgh over Chiefs
Saints over Giants
Keller's Picks, Week 12
(Click here to view NFL Pick Em standings, week-by-week and YTD.)
I lost a game on my lead to Weidman last week, so I need to get it right this week. There's a full slate of games every week from here on out. This is where the season will be won or lost.
Green Bay at Detroit:
I'm picking the Packers until they lose and I jumped off the Lions bandwagon last week. I think Rodgers and Green Bay keep rolling.
Miami at Dallas:
The Dolphins are on a roll of late and Matt Moore's QBERT rating has spiked considerably in the past three weeks, but they're still not good enough to beat the Cowboys at Dallas.
San Francisco at Baltimore:
This is a tough one. Short week for both teams and the 49ers have to travel to the east coast. But, it's a night game and I have a feeling that San Francisco can out-ugly just about anyone, including the hated Ravens. I just hope I can watch this game, listen to all the Harbaugh Bowl talk, and not punch someone in the face. That would make the remainder of my Thanksgiving visit a little uncomfortable.
Buffalo at NY Jets:
I hate to take the Jets, because they're awful. But, they did manage to beat the Bills in Buffalo earlier this season and Ryan Fitzpatrick's QBERT rating has been declining at a geometric rate since Week 6. Sanchize isn't much better, but he's good enough and he's at home.
Cleveland at Cincinnati:
The Browns are a terrible team, the Bengals are better than anyone thought they could be coming into the season, and they're beyond pissed off after dropping back-to-back games to the Steelers and hated Ravens. I think they roll. That line can't get high enough.
Houston at Jacksonville:
I know that Matt Leinart is a pretty crappy quarterback that hasn't had a decent QBERT rating since his last year at Southern Cal. The trouble is that the Jags couldn't beat Cleveland last week and their run defense leaves a lot to be desired. I think Leinart pulls a Griese, attempts eight passes, and Ben Tate and Arian Foster get 100 yards each.
Carolina at Indianapolis:
This is a shaky pick, but I jumped off the Panthers bandwagon last week, it worked, and I need to stick with that. Plus which, Indy is coming off a bye and they're at home. They can't finish 0-16, can they? Don't answer that.
Tampa at Tennessee:
I'm not saying the Titans are the 2011 Packers. This is more a vote of no-confidence in Tampa. Matt Hasselbeck should start and Tennessee is good enough to actually remember to tackle LeGarrett Blount, which is where the Packers went wrong yesterday.
Minnesota at Atlanta:
Adrian Peterson may not play and the Falcons have a tough run defense. Also, the Vikings suck.
Arizona at St. Louis:
Two craptastic teams and a lot of questions usually means take the home team. I can't do that because the Rams are craptastic squared and may not win another game the rest of the season.
Chicago at Oakland:
Sure, this might look like a dumb pick, but consider:
I lost a game on my lead to Weidman last week, so I need to get it right this week. There's a full slate of games every week from here on out. This is where the season will be won or lost.
Green Bay at Detroit:
I'm picking the Packers until they lose and I jumped off the Lions bandwagon last week. I think Rodgers and Green Bay keep rolling.
Miami at Dallas:
The Dolphins are on a roll of late and Matt Moore's QBERT rating has spiked considerably in the past three weeks, but they're still not good enough to beat the Cowboys at Dallas.
San Francisco at Baltimore:
This is a tough one. Short week for both teams and the 49ers have to travel to the east coast. But, it's a night game and I have a feeling that San Francisco can out-ugly just about anyone, including the hated Ravens. I just hope I can watch this game, listen to all the Harbaugh Bowl talk, and not punch someone in the face. That would make the remainder of my Thanksgiving visit a little uncomfortable.
Buffalo at NY Jets:
I hate to take the Jets, because they're awful. But, they did manage to beat the Bills in Buffalo earlier this season and Ryan Fitzpatrick's QBERT rating has been declining at a geometric rate since Week 6. Sanchize isn't much better, but he's good enough and he's at home.
Cleveland at Cincinnati:
The Browns are a terrible team, the Bengals are better than anyone thought they could be coming into the season, and they're beyond pissed off after dropping back-to-back games to the Steelers and hated Ravens. I think they roll. That line can't get high enough.
Houston at Jacksonville:
I know that Matt Leinart is a pretty crappy quarterback that hasn't had a decent QBERT rating since his last year at Southern Cal. The trouble is that the Jags couldn't beat Cleveland last week and their run defense leaves a lot to be desired. I think Leinart pulls a Griese, attempts eight passes, and Ben Tate and Arian Foster get 100 yards each.
Carolina at Indianapolis:
This is a shaky pick, but I jumped off the Panthers bandwagon last week, it worked, and I need to stick with that. Plus which, Indy is coming off a bye and they're at home. They can't finish 0-16, can they? Don't answer that.
Tampa at Tennessee:
I'm not saying the Titans are the 2011 Packers. This is more a vote of no-confidence in Tampa. Matt Hasselbeck should start and Tennessee is good enough to actually remember to tackle LeGarrett Blount, which is where the Packers went wrong yesterday.
Minnesota at Atlanta:
Adrian Peterson may not play and the Falcons have a tough run defense. Also, the Vikings suck.
Arizona at St. Louis:
Two craptastic teams and a lot of questions usually means take the home team. I can't do that because the Rams are craptastic squared and may not win another game the rest of the season.
Chicago at Oakland:
Sure, this might look like a dumb pick, but consider:
- The Raiders have only won two games at home.
- I'm still on the Bears bandwagon.
- My buddy Keith says that Caleb Hanie is a combination of Football Jesus and Joseph Smith, which is good enough for me. I think the offense might actually improve with him at the helm. Then again, I hate Jay Cutler with the burning passion of a thousand dying sons, so my judgement may be clouded.
Washington at Seattle:
Seahawks play well at home and the Redskins are a total mess. On the field, off the field, in Victorian England, it doesn't matter. They'd lose to a 19th century soccer team, is what I'm saying.
New England at Philadelphia:
Just when you think the Patriots are dead, they rise from the ashes. Just when you think the Dream Team is turning things around, they crap the bed. Don't bet against Tom Brady and don't bet for Michael Vick/Less Emotionally Stable Michael Vick.
Denver at San Diego:
I have been converted to the First Church of Football Jesus. The Chargers are overrated and Tebow just wins. They'll find a way to lose this game and he'll find a way to win. That's what he does, he wins football games. And Tebows. And solves the national debt crisis.
Steelers at Kansas City:
More details to follow for the full-on game preview, but anyone who watched the Chiefs on Monday night should not question this pick.
NY Giants at NOLA:
There's a really good chance that a desperate Giants team could pull the upset on the road, but the Saints are at home and they're coming off a bye. I am not in the business of betting against Sean Payton when he's had two weeks to prepare for an opponent and two weeks to get his entire backfield healthy (start Mark Ingram).
Line of the Week:
Bengals (-9) over Browns. Like I said, that line can't get big enough. I think Cincy wins by at least two touchdowns.
Moneyline of the Week:
Denver (+243) over San Diego. Yeah, Football Jesus! (I'm totally breaking up with you if you lose this game).
Over/Under of the Week:
Washington at Seattle (37.5, UNDER). Two bad offenses, two underrated defenses. When in doubt, always take the under in a Seahawks game.
Green Bay over Detroit
Dallas over Miami
San Francisco over Baltimore
NY Jets over Buffalo
Cincinnati over Cleveland
Houston over Jacksonville
Indianapolis over Carolina
Tennessee over Tampa
Atlanta over Minnesota
Arizona over St. Louis
Chicago over Oakland
Seattle over Washington
New England over Philadelphia
Denver over San Diego
Steelers over Kansas City
NOLA over NY Giants
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
Weidman's Picks, Week 11
(Click here to see current NFL Pick Em Standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)
This is getting to be a habit with the ugly weeks. Last week, Keller and I both bet heavily on upsets - and the upsets came even stronger. Also, I slipped farther behind in the standings. Thank you for still reading.
Jets at Broncos
I'll start this out with a road team pick. The Broncos are doing better than I'd expect, but the Jets are stomping the important games. Only concern is them pulling a Ravens after beating a hated rival twice this season.
Raiders at Vikings
Another road pick. The Vikings are just awful.
Bills at Miami
Three for three. Nothing more to report here.
Jags at Browns
Even matchup between two lousy teams. When in doubt, take the home team, in this case the Browns. But, if there's going to be an upset this week, this game has a very strong possibility.
Bungles at Ravens
Wow...this is a toughie. It's the absolute opposite of the above in every way. If you'd told me at the beginning of the season that there would be an important game between the Ravens and the Bungles this late in the season, I'd have told you that you were full of crap. And yet...here we are. The Bungles held their own against us last week, but we ran all over them early on. If they give the Ravens that opportunity at home, there's no chance. Baltimore had a big hangover last week and lost ground to us in the standings. This is a division game, and I don't see them doing it again.
Panthers at Lions
I hate to just keep picking the favorites, but again, here we are. The Lions choked majorly last week against the Bears, but they'll bring it back at home this week.
Bucs at Pack
I keep thinking that the Pack has to lose at some point, but every week I look at who they're playing and say, "not this week." Especially not at home.
Dallas at Skins
The Skins may be at home, but they've dropped three in a row, just when the Cowboys are really getting their act together. I see this one being a stomping.
Cards at Niners
Ditto the above, but in the home team's favor and by a lot more.
Seattle at St. Louis
This one is gonna be too close to call for a lot of people. Seattle had a huge win last week, and I hope to see them show the Ravens how you follow that up.
Titans at Falcons
Their records are tied, but the Falcons are the better team and at home.
Chargers at Bears
Bears are favored and at home...but I don't think so. The Chargers are geared for an upset, and I don't think the Bears are going to handle the win last week.
Eagles at Giants
Rivalry games can go any which way, no matter what the record...but the Dream Team never arrived, and the Giants have all the cards.
Chiefs at Pats
I feel kinda bad for the Chiefs. They're gonna get stomped the next two weeks.
Jets over Broncos
Raiders over Vikings
Bills over Miami
Browns over Jags
Ravens over Bungles
Lions over Panthers
Pack over Bucs
Dallas over Skins
Niners over Cards
Seattle over St. Louis
Falcons over Titans
Chargers over Bears
Giants over Eagles
Pats over Chiefs
This is getting to be a habit with the ugly weeks. Last week, Keller and I both bet heavily on upsets - and the upsets came even stronger. Also, I slipped farther behind in the standings. Thank you for still reading.
Jets at Broncos
I'll start this out with a road team pick. The Broncos are doing better than I'd expect, but the Jets are stomping the important games. Only concern is them pulling a Ravens after beating a hated rival twice this season.
Raiders at Vikings
Another road pick. The Vikings are just awful.
Bills at Miami
Three for three. Nothing more to report here.
Jags at Browns
Even matchup between two lousy teams. When in doubt, take the home team, in this case the Browns. But, if there's going to be an upset this week, this game has a very strong possibility.
Bungles at Ravens
Wow...this is a toughie. It's the absolute opposite of the above in every way. If you'd told me at the beginning of the season that there would be an important game between the Ravens and the Bungles this late in the season, I'd have told you that you were full of crap. And yet...here we are. The Bungles held their own against us last week, but we ran all over them early on. If they give the Ravens that opportunity at home, there's no chance. Baltimore had a big hangover last week and lost ground to us in the standings. This is a division game, and I don't see them doing it again.
Panthers at Lions
I hate to just keep picking the favorites, but again, here we are. The Lions choked majorly last week against the Bears, but they'll bring it back at home this week.
Bucs at Pack
I keep thinking that the Pack has to lose at some point, but every week I look at who they're playing and say, "not this week." Especially not at home.
Dallas at Skins
The Skins may be at home, but they've dropped three in a row, just when the Cowboys are really getting their act together. I see this one being a stomping.
Cards at Niners
Ditto the above, but in the home team's favor and by a lot more.
Seattle at St. Louis
This one is gonna be too close to call for a lot of people. Seattle had a huge win last week, and I hope to see them show the Ravens how you follow that up.
Titans at Falcons
Their records are tied, but the Falcons are the better team and at home.
Chargers at Bears
Bears are favored and at home...but I don't think so. The Chargers are geared for an upset, and I don't think the Bears are going to handle the win last week.
Eagles at Giants
Rivalry games can go any which way, no matter what the record...but the Dream Team never arrived, and the Giants have all the cards.
Chiefs at Pats
I feel kinda bad for the Chiefs. They're gonna get stomped the next two weeks.
Jets over Broncos
Raiders over Vikings
Bills over Miami
Browns over Jags
Ravens over Bungles
Lions over Panthers
Pack over Bucs
Dallas over Skins
Niners over Cards
Seattle over St. Louis
Falcons over Titans
Chargers over Bears
Giants over Eagles
Pats over Chiefs
Keller's Picks, Week 11
(Click here to see current NFL Pick Em Standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)
Well, I got crushed again last week, but I called Seahawks over hated Ravens and went 4-2 in swing games. I am officially on the Bears bandwagon and that large crashing sound you heard was me jumping off the bandwagons of the Lions, Panthers, and Bills. I thought that would give me three sure-fire wins this week. Then I discovered that the Panthers play the Lions. Ah, well. On with the picks.
NY Jets at Denver:
Don't get me wrong, I'm all about the Football Jesus. I just don't think he has enough miracles in him to beat an angry and cornered Jets team. Home field isn't an advantage for the Broncos at this point in the season and I think the Broncos are just bad enough on defense to make the Jets look good. They looked pretty crappy on Sunday night, so this is no small feat.
Buffalo at Miami:
Yes, I'm aware that I said I was off the Bills bandwagon. But, they've struggled recently because they've been playing decent-to-good pass defenses and Ryan Fitzpatrick's QBERT rating plummeted as a result. The Dolphins pass defense is awful, so he gets back on track this week.
Cincinnati at Baltimore:
This is the second week in a row that the Bengals draw an opponent that lost a craptastic, frustrating game the week before. This is the second week in a row that the Bengals will lose to that opponent. But... the line's a little crazy (Baltimore -7), so take Cincy if you're picking on spreads.
Jacksonville at Cleveland:
Honestly, I have no idea. I really should take the home team, but I'm tired of picking the Browns and then finding out they did something dumb to blow the game. This one could end in a 0-0 tie, unless there's a defensive touchdown.
Oakland at Minnesota:
The Vikings are favored by one, which confuses the hell out of me. I know that Run DMC is probably out for this game, but he's been out for a few weeks. I checked around to see if Minnesota was able to clone Jared Allen and Percy Harvin and Adrian Peterson, but Google said no. I also checked to make sure that Carson Palmer was still alive and he is. I have no idea why a 5-4 team working on 11 days rest would be underdogs to a 2-7 team that got destroyed on Monday Night Football.
Carolina at Detroit:
Stupid bandwagon widows playing each other the week after I jump off. Seriously, I should be able to take this one off the board. When in doubt, take the home team.
Tampa at Green Bay:
That Aaron Rodgers, he's a good football player. Did you know that the gestation period of an elephant is 22 months? I just wanted to add something else here to make it look like I did my homework.
Dallas at Washington:
Redskins lost by 11 points to Miami last week and the Cowboys destroyed the Bills. Washington may be the worst team in the league and they decided to go back to Rex Grossman to try to jump start the offense. Any time that Sexy Rexy is your game changer, you have serious, serious problems.
Arizona at San Francisco:
Steelers West is going to crush me again with another improbable road win this week. I can feel it. Still, it would be super dumb to actually pick against the 49ers.
Seattle at St. Louis:
I hate picking the Rams. I really do. But, they followed up their upset of the Giants with a 6-3 loss to Cleveland. I think the "crazy upset then crapping the bed on the road" trend continues.
Tennessee at Atlanta:
Oh, great. Two of the most schizophrenic teams in the league are playing each other. Not sure which version of which team is going to show up on either side, but Atlanta's home. Where they choked big time against the Saints in Week 10. I hate this game.
San Diego at Chicago:
YEAH! GO BEARS! WOOOOOOOOOOOO! *checks to make sure he has a clear path to exit bandwagon*
Philadelphia at NY Giants:
I know Eli and company lost at San Francisco last week, but I think they might be the second best team in the NFC. The Eagles are... not so much. They lost at home to Steelers West last week. That's just embarrassing. I'm all about betting against the Dream Team at this point.
Kansas City at New England:
Hey, so, never bet against Tom Brady. The moneyline for this game is KC +720. I wonder how they feel about that. Like, are they depressed? Motivated? Constipated? I'll go with the last two, but taking the points might not be a bad idea.
Line of the Week:
I'm all in on the Chicago bandwagon (Chicago -3.5). I think they win by a touchdown, even if they don't dismantle the Chargers like they did the Lions.
Moneyline of the Week:
Bills (+111) over Dolphins. That's the "upset" that I'm the most comfortable with. Both teams are taking on water, but Buffalo has more buckets.
Over/Under of the Week:
Dallas at Washington (41.5, OVER). I think the Cowboys might score 42 points all by themselves, so this is easy money.
NY Jets over Denver
Buffalo over Miami
Baltimore over Cincinnati
Jacksonville over Cleveland
Oakland over Minnesota
Detroit over Carolina
Green Bay over Tampa
Dallas over Washington
San Francisco over Arizona
St. Louis over Seattle
Atlanta over Tennessee
Chicago over San Diego
NY Giants over Philadelphia
New England over Kansas City
Well, I got crushed again last week, but I called Seahawks over hated Ravens and went 4-2 in swing games. I am officially on the Bears bandwagon and that large crashing sound you heard was me jumping off the bandwagons of the Lions, Panthers, and Bills. I thought that would give me three sure-fire wins this week. Then I discovered that the Panthers play the Lions. Ah, well. On with the picks.
NY Jets at Denver:
Don't get me wrong, I'm all about the Football Jesus. I just don't think he has enough miracles in him to beat an angry and cornered Jets team. Home field isn't an advantage for the Broncos at this point in the season and I think the Broncos are just bad enough on defense to make the Jets look good. They looked pretty crappy on Sunday night, so this is no small feat.
Buffalo at Miami:
Yes, I'm aware that I said I was off the Bills bandwagon. But, they've struggled recently because they've been playing decent-to-good pass defenses and Ryan Fitzpatrick's QBERT rating plummeted as a result. The Dolphins pass defense is awful, so he gets back on track this week.
Cincinnati at Baltimore:
This is the second week in a row that the Bengals draw an opponent that lost a craptastic, frustrating game the week before. This is the second week in a row that the Bengals will lose to that opponent. But... the line's a little crazy (Baltimore -7), so take Cincy if you're picking on spreads.
Jacksonville at Cleveland:
Honestly, I have no idea. I really should take the home team, but I'm tired of picking the Browns and then finding out they did something dumb to blow the game. This one could end in a 0-0 tie, unless there's a defensive touchdown.
Oakland at Minnesota:
The Vikings are favored by one, which confuses the hell out of me. I know that Run DMC is probably out for this game, but he's been out for a few weeks. I checked around to see if Minnesota was able to clone Jared Allen and Percy Harvin and Adrian Peterson, but Google said no. I also checked to make sure that Carson Palmer was still alive and he is. I have no idea why a 5-4 team working on 11 days rest would be underdogs to a 2-7 team that got destroyed on Monday Night Football.
Carolina at Detroit:
Stupid bandwagon widows playing each other the week after I jump off. Seriously, I should be able to take this one off the board. When in doubt, take the home team.
Tampa at Green Bay:
That Aaron Rodgers, he's a good football player. Did you know that the gestation period of an elephant is 22 months? I just wanted to add something else here to make it look like I did my homework.
Dallas at Washington:
Redskins lost by 11 points to Miami last week and the Cowboys destroyed the Bills. Washington may be the worst team in the league and they decided to go back to Rex Grossman to try to jump start the offense. Any time that Sexy Rexy is your game changer, you have serious, serious problems.
Arizona at San Francisco:
Steelers West is going to crush me again with another improbable road win this week. I can feel it. Still, it would be super dumb to actually pick against the 49ers.
Seattle at St. Louis:
I hate picking the Rams. I really do. But, they followed up their upset of the Giants with a 6-3 loss to Cleveland. I think the "crazy upset then crapping the bed on the road" trend continues.
Tennessee at Atlanta:
Oh, great. Two of the most schizophrenic teams in the league are playing each other. Not sure which version of which team is going to show up on either side, but Atlanta's home. Where they choked big time against the Saints in Week 10. I hate this game.
San Diego at Chicago:
YEAH! GO BEARS! WOOOOOOOOOOOO! *checks to make sure he has a clear path to exit bandwagon*
Philadelphia at NY Giants:
I know Eli and company lost at San Francisco last week, but I think they might be the second best team in the NFC. The Eagles are... not so much. They lost at home to Steelers West last week. That's just embarrassing. I'm all about betting against the Dream Team at this point.
Kansas City at New England:
Hey, so, never bet against Tom Brady. The moneyline for this game is KC +720. I wonder how they feel about that. Like, are they depressed? Motivated? Constipated? I'll go with the last two, but taking the points might not be a bad idea.
Line of the Week:
I'm all in on the Chicago bandwagon (Chicago -3.5). I think they win by a touchdown, even if they don't dismantle the Chargers like they did the Lions.
Moneyline of the Week:
Bills (+111) over Dolphins. That's the "upset" that I'm the most comfortable with. Both teams are taking on water, but Buffalo has more buckets.
Over/Under of the Week:
Dallas at Washington (41.5, OVER). I think the Cowboys might score 42 points all by themselves, so this is easy money.
NY Jets over Denver
Buffalo over Miami
Baltimore over Cincinnati
Jacksonville over Cleveland
Oakland over Minnesota
Detroit over Carolina
Green Bay over Tampa
Dallas over Washington
San Francisco over Arizona
St. Louis over Seattle
Atlanta over Tennessee
Chicago over San Diego
NY Giants over Philadelphia
New England over Kansas City
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Weidman's Picks, Week 10
(Click here to view current Pick Em Standings, week-by-week and YTD.)
I gained a little ground on Keller last week, but I still took a drubbing. Upsets can ruin anyone's day. Doesn't help also having to deal with the Steelers losing to the hated Ravens this week.
Raiders at Chargers
Although their records are tied, Chargers are really coming alive, the Raiders are sagging a bit and the Chargers are at home. Take San Diego.
Bills at Cowboys
This is my stupid pick of the week. I know that the Cowboys are heavily favored at home, but I just like the Bills better this season. I know they screwed up bad against the Jets last week, but this is a new week. Cowboys are always overrated, and this season they deserve it less than most.
Titans at Carolina
Another one of those cases where I just don't agree with the line - not even the overall pick. Tennessee hasn't been great on the road - but Carolina is just crap this season and they've lost more at home than they've won. I actually think the Titans are going pull an upset this week.
Texans at Bucs
Close call here, and one of those cases where the safe bet is the home team, even if I'm not wild about them. Play it safe with the Bucs.
Jags at Indy
Crap hosting slightly less crap. I dunno...I really, really don't see the Colts going completely winless this season, and this is their best bet so far. I think the line mainly reflects that the Colts are experiencing one of the biggest melt-downs of all time (citation needed) and not the actual game. Indy brings it.
Steelers West at Eagles
Bird fight, and as in nature, and Eagle wins over a Cardinal any day.
Saints at Falcons
This one is too close to easily call. A few weeks ago, I would have had a much easier choice, but the Saints haven't aged well this season and the Falcons are gaining strength. However, by a hair, I'm taking the Saints.
Rams at Browns
Another crap on crap match-up with the home team being slightly better. Take the Brownies.
Skins at Miami
Going by the records, Skins would be the call, but the game is more than records. Miami's at home and hungry to stay ahead of the Colts (terrible teams do that, right?) so I'm gonna take the fish.
Bronos at Chiefs
I still don't have much faith in the horsies, and the Chiefs are at home. It's not gonna be flashy, but I'll take them.
Steelers at Bungles
Last week was a tough loss. A division loss. To the Ravens. This is something the Steelers can't take lying down. We've got a lot of ground to make up to keep a hold on Baltimore, and Pittsburgh knows this. Also, the Steelers are historically good on the road when their backs are up against it.
Ravens at Seahawks
Bird fight, part II. There's really no breaking this one down - Ravens win handily.
Lions at Bears
I'm sold on the Lions and not on the Bears, oh my. They're not the favorites, but I think Detroit's gonna stack up another win.
New York Football Giants at San Fran
The Giants had a great game on the road last week, but I don't think they're gonna do it again...and, dare I say it, San Fran might just be better than the Pats this year.
Pats at Jets
Okay, granted, every time I don't bet on Brady, he wins...but, seriously - if the Jets can beat the Pats in Foxboro, they can beat them at home...but it can go either way. Take the Jets by one of Brady's expensively coiffed hairs.
Vikes at the Pack
I've mentioned it before, but it sucks for everyone involved when a rivalry is totally lopsided, and they don't get much more lopsided than here. The hapless Vikes are on the road against Rogers and his stupid touchdown dance.
Chargers over Raiders
Bills over Cowboys
Titans over Carolina
Bucs over Texans
Indy over Jags
Eagles over Steelers West
Saints over Falcons
Browns over Rams
Miami over Skins
Chiefs over Bronos
Steelers over Bungles
Ravens over Seahawks
Lions over Bears
San Fran over New York Football Giants
Jets over Pats
Pack over Vikes
I gained a little ground on Keller last week, but I still took a drubbing. Upsets can ruin anyone's day. Doesn't help also having to deal with the Steelers losing to the hated Ravens this week.
Raiders at Chargers
Although their records are tied, Chargers are really coming alive, the Raiders are sagging a bit and the Chargers are at home. Take San Diego.
Bills at Cowboys
This is my stupid pick of the week. I know that the Cowboys are heavily favored at home, but I just like the Bills better this season. I know they screwed up bad against the Jets last week, but this is a new week. Cowboys are always overrated, and this season they deserve it less than most.
Titans at Carolina
Another one of those cases where I just don't agree with the line - not even the overall pick. Tennessee hasn't been great on the road - but Carolina is just crap this season and they've lost more at home than they've won. I actually think the Titans are going pull an upset this week.
Texans at Bucs
Close call here, and one of those cases where the safe bet is the home team, even if I'm not wild about them. Play it safe with the Bucs.
Jags at Indy
Crap hosting slightly less crap. I dunno...I really, really don't see the Colts going completely winless this season, and this is their best bet so far. I think the line mainly reflects that the Colts are experiencing one of the biggest melt-downs of all time (citation needed) and not the actual game. Indy brings it.
Steelers West at Eagles
Bird fight, and as in nature, and Eagle wins over a Cardinal any day.
Saints at Falcons
This one is too close to easily call. A few weeks ago, I would have had a much easier choice, but the Saints haven't aged well this season and the Falcons are gaining strength. However, by a hair, I'm taking the Saints.
Rams at Browns
Another crap on crap match-up with the home team being slightly better. Take the Brownies.
Skins at Miami
Going by the records, Skins would be the call, but the game is more than records. Miami's at home and hungry to stay ahead of the Colts (terrible teams do that, right?) so I'm gonna take the fish.
Bronos at Chiefs
I still don't have much faith in the horsies, and the Chiefs are at home. It's not gonna be flashy, but I'll take them.
Steelers at Bungles
Last week was a tough loss. A division loss. To the Ravens. This is something the Steelers can't take lying down. We've got a lot of ground to make up to keep a hold on Baltimore, and Pittsburgh knows this. Also, the Steelers are historically good on the road when their backs are up against it.
Ravens at Seahawks
Bird fight, part II. There's really no breaking this one down - Ravens win handily.
Lions at Bears
I'm sold on the Lions and not on the Bears, oh my. They're not the favorites, but I think Detroit's gonna stack up another win.
New York Football Giants at San Fran
The Giants had a great game on the road last week, but I don't think they're gonna do it again...and, dare I say it, San Fran might just be better than the Pats this year.
Pats at Jets
Okay, granted, every time I don't bet on Brady, he wins...but, seriously - if the Jets can beat the Pats in Foxboro, they can beat them at home...but it can go either way. Take the Jets by one of Brady's expensively coiffed hairs.
Vikes at the Pack
I've mentioned it before, but it sucks for everyone involved when a rivalry is totally lopsided, and they don't get much more lopsided than here. The hapless Vikes are on the road against Rogers and his stupid touchdown dance.
Chargers over Raiders
Bills over Cowboys
Titans over Carolina
Bucs over Texans
Indy over Jags
Eagles over Steelers West
Saints over Falcons
Browns over Rams
Miami over Skins
Chiefs over Bronos
Steelers over Bungles
Ravens over Seahawks
Lions over Bears
San Fran over New York Football Giants
Jets over Pats
Pack over Vikes
Wednesday, November 09, 2011
Keller's Picks, Week 10
(Click here to view current Pick Em Standings, week-by-week and YTD.)
I am going to do something that is either vastly idiotic or incredibly brilliant. It's probably vastly idiotic, but at least I have reasons to back my idiocy up. I have been picking mostly favorites thus far and I've gotten crushed the last few weeks because of all the upsets.
I have identified what I believe to be some prime upset candidates and I will back them this week. I have a nine game lead over Weidman and I've performed well in swing games thus far. If I can take a high percentage of those games this week -- since he's been taking mostly favorites as well -- I can come that much closer to locking up the title.
If I'm wrong, then I'll know that the NFL has returned to a semi-sane point and I can go back to picking the favorites. Well, really, if I'm wrong then I'm going back to picking the favorites because that's a higher percentage game. But, I've thought through several scenarios, analyzed the match-ups, and done some regressions, and I feel as though the upsets I've targeted are as "sure" as they can get.
Oakland at San Diego:
Having said that, I'm not a total moron. Philip Rivers has returned to a respectable QBERT rating and almost came back to beat the Packers last week. Oakland will be without Darren McFadden, Carson Palmer has a QBERT rating in the teens, and they lost to freaking Denver last week.
Steelers at Cincinnati:
This is a tough match-up and it should be a close game, but I think the Steelers will pull this one out after a tough loss to the hated Ravens on Sunday night. It's not that I don't believe in the Bengals. God help me, I think Andy Dalton is going to be very good and AJ Green scares me. They have a solid defense and I think they are for real. It's just that I believe in the Steelers more.
Denver at Kansas City:
This is where I start to come off the rails. It'll get worse, so just hang in there. I'm not a huge fan of Football Jesus, but I have to say that he adds a certain air of unpredictability to a game. With two teams that are difficult to handicap in a game that could go either way, you go with the wild card. Tebow is that wild card and will end up doing something weird to either win or lose this game. I'm betting he does something weird that gives the Broncos a W.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis:
The Colts may be an awful, awful team, but the Jags aren't much better. Indy is at home, they're angry about all the Suck for Luck talk, their coach has come under fire, and they have a bunch of veteran leadership that will help carry them into the bye week with something positive to focus on. Even given all that, I'm still in doubt. That means I take the home team.
Houston at Tampa:
I'm still not sold on the Bucs, I think Arian Foster is an unstoppable death machine, and I think Josh Freeman's heroics are behind him. They'll need a huge performance from Freeman to win this game and I don't think he has it in him.
Buffalo at Dallas:
The Cowboys have been quietly solid the last few weeks. After years of being labeled as overrated, I think they're happy with just being rated. I think the Bills started to believe the hype and they came into the Jets game overconfident. They'll be focused this week, but Dallas has similar personnel to the Jets and I think DeMarcus Ware has a field day on Ryan Fitzpatrick and this spread offense.
Tennessee at Carolina:
Road teams coming off a bye have not done well this year, but home teams have been consistent. I'm not buying the line, personally (Panthers -3.5), but I think Carolina will win. I'm on the fence, which means I'm in doubt, which means take the home team.
Washington at Miami:
Lesser of two evils and the home team. Let's just pretend this game isn't even happening and move on.
NOLA at Atlanta:
I'm not saying that the fact that the Falcons beat the Colts like a rented mule (hey, that actually works!) makes them a great team. I think that, at home, playing with some confidence, and facing a very shaky defense, the Falcons can make this happen. The pieces are starting to fall together for Atlanta and I think they're on their way up, while the Saints are on their way down. Not "out of the playoff picture" down, just not "unstoppable juggernaut like the Packers" up.
Detroit at Chicago:
I'm gonna put two statements that are true but sound absurd back-to-back: The Lions play better at home and the Lions pass rush will be too much for the Bears. Chicago used a lot of max protect schemes against the Eagles on Monday night and were successful, but Detroit will be able to rush four and drop seven and still get some pressure. I think that's the difference.
St. Louis at Cleveland:
Last week, I needed a running back. I picked up Chris Ogbonnaya. It took me ten minutes to find him because I had a hell of a time trying to figure out how to spell his name (used OB at the start the first few times and probably also used OY). I found him, picked him up, and he fumbled on his first play from scrimmage. He's the best option Cleveland has at running back. I still picked the Browns, because the Rams are that horrible.
Arizona at Philadelphia:
Hugely successful passing attack against hugely sucktastic secondary? This one could get ugly.
Baltimore at Seattle:
I have not lost my mind. The last time the hated Ravens won an emotional game over the Steelers, they went on the road and got destroyed by a Titans team that I just picked to lose to Carolina. The AFC has been a mess this year. Every week, there's a new "Team to Beat" and every week that team loses. It's Baltimore's turn this week.
Yes, thank you. I know this is a dumb idea. But, if the NFL (especially the AFC) has truly been turned upside down, then this would be the best singular representation of that chaos. Or something like that.
NY Giants at San Francisco:
I hope there is enough room on the 49ers bandwagon for me. If not, I can easily jump off. I don't feel great about this pick, but I'm tired of picking against San Francisco and picking wrong. The NFC has been much more consistent this year.
New England at NY Jets:
Brady already lost at home last week, so I'm surprised the sun came up on Monday. But, really, the Pats lose three straight? The Jets have the right combination of guys to play man on the New England receivers and shut them down. They're playing well enough on offense to score enough to win. Right now, the Jets are trending up and the Patriots are trending down.
Minnesota at Green Bay:
But, there's no stopping the trend of Packers victories. At least this week. I'll keep picking them until they lose. If they lose, I'll probably pick them again because Aaron Rodgers has a 100 QBERT rating and he's on my fantasy team (the good one).
Line of the Week:
Giants (+3.5) at 49ers. Something about this game reeks of a three point victory. That smell might just be the gash on my arm getting infected. I cut it when I jumped on the 49ers bandwagon.
Moneyline of the Week:
Detroit (+136) at Chicago. I picked a lot of upsets this week, but this is the one I'm most confident in.
Over/Under of the Week:
Oakland at San Diego (47.5/UNDER). Scoring is down across the league the last few weeks (by "down" I mean 43 points per game). These two teams have struggled at different points on both sides of the ball and they're both turnover machines. How is it that they score more than the average this week? I don't see it.
San Diego over Oakland
Steelers over Bengals
Denver over Kansas City
Indianapolis over Jacksonville
Houston over Tampa
Dallas over Buffalo
Carolina over Tennessee
Miami over Washington
Atlanta over NOLA
Detroit over Chicago
Cleveland over St. Louis
Philadelphia over Arizona
Seattle over Baltimore
San Francisco over NY Giants
NY Jets over New England
Green Bay over Minnesota
I am going to do something that is either vastly idiotic or incredibly brilliant. It's probably vastly idiotic, but at least I have reasons to back my idiocy up. I have been picking mostly favorites thus far and I've gotten crushed the last few weeks because of all the upsets.
I have identified what I believe to be some prime upset candidates and I will back them this week. I have a nine game lead over Weidman and I've performed well in swing games thus far. If I can take a high percentage of those games this week -- since he's been taking mostly favorites as well -- I can come that much closer to locking up the title.
If I'm wrong, then I'll know that the NFL has returned to a semi-sane point and I can go back to picking the favorites. Well, really, if I'm wrong then I'm going back to picking the favorites because that's a higher percentage game. But, I've thought through several scenarios, analyzed the match-ups, and done some regressions, and I feel as though the upsets I've targeted are as "sure" as they can get.
Oakland at San Diego:
Having said that, I'm not a total moron. Philip Rivers has returned to a respectable QBERT rating and almost came back to beat the Packers last week. Oakland will be without Darren McFadden, Carson Palmer has a QBERT rating in the teens, and they lost to freaking Denver last week.
Steelers at Cincinnati:
This is a tough match-up and it should be a close game, but I think the Steelers will pull this one out after a tough loss to the hated Ravens on Sunday night. It's not that I don't believe in the Bengals. God help me, I think Andy Dalton is going to be very good and AJ Green scares me. They have a solid defense and I think they are for real. It's just that I believe in the Steelers more.
Denver at Kansas City:
This is where I start to come off the rails. It'll get worse, so just hang in there. I'm not a huge fan of Football Jesus, but I have to say that he adds a certain air of unpredictability to a game. With two teams that are difficult to handicap in a game that could go either way, you go with the wild card. Tebow is that wild card and will end up doing something weird to either win or lose this game. I'm betting he does something weird that gives the Broncos a W.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis:
The Colts may be an awful, awful team, but the Jags aren't much better. Indy is at home, they're angry about all the Suck for Luck talk, their coach has come under fire, and they have a bunch of veteran leadership that will help carry them into the bye week with something positive to focus on. Even given all that, I'm still in doubt. That means I take the home team.
Houston at Tampa:
I'm still not sold on the Bucs, I think Arian Foster is an unstoppable death machine, and I think Josh Freeman's heroics are behind him. They'll need a huge performance from Freeman to win this game and I don't think he has it in him.
Buffalo at Dallas:
The Cowboys have been quietly solid the last few weeks. After years of being labeled as overrated, I think they're happy with just being rated. I think the Bills started to believe the hype and they came into the Jets game overconfident. They'll be focused this week, but Dallas has similar personnel to the Jets and I think DeMarcus Ware has a field day on Ryan Fitzpatrick and this spread offense.
Tennessee at Carolina:
Road teams coming off a bye have not done well this year, but home teams have been consistent. I'm not buying the line, personally (Panthers -3.5), but I think Carolina will win. I'm on the fence, which means I'm in doubt, which means take the home team.
Washington at Miami:
Lesser of two evils and the home team. Let's just pretend this game isn't even happening and move on.
NOLA at Atlanta:
I'm not saying that the fact that the Falcons beat the Colts like a rented mule (hey, that actually works!) makes them a great team. I think that, at home, playing with some confidence, and facing a very shaky defense, the Falcons can make this happen. The pieces are starting to fall together for Atlanta and I think they're on their way up, while the Saints are on their way down. Not "out of the playoff picture" down, just not "unstoppable juggernaut like the Packers" up.
Detroit at Chicago:
I'm gonna put two statements that are true but sound absurd back-to-back: The Lions play better at home and the Lions pass rush will be too much for the Bears. Chicago used a lot of max protect schemes against the Eagles on Monday night and were successful, but Detroit will be able to rush four and drop seven and still get some pressure. I think that's the difference.
St. Louis at Cleveland:
Last week, I needed a running back. I picked up Chris Ogbonnaya. It took me ten minutes to find him because I had a hell of a time trying to figure out how to spell his name (used OB at the start the first few times and probably also used OY). I found him, picked him up, and he fumbled on his first play from scrimmage. He's the best option Cleveland has at running back. I still picked the Browns, because the Rams are that horrible.
Arizona at Philadelphia:
Hugely successful passing attack against hugely sucktastic secondary? This one could get ugly.
Baltimore at Seattle:
I have not lost my mind. The last time the hated Ravens won an emotional game over the Steelers, they went on the road and got destroyed by a Titans team that I just picked to lose to Carolina. The AFC has been a mess this year. Every week, there's a new "Team to Beat" and every week that team loses. It's Baltimore's turn this week.
Yes, thank you. I know this is a dumb idea. But, if the NFL (especially the AFC) has truly been turned upside down, then this would be the best singular representation of that chaos. Or something like that.
NY Giants at San Francisco:
I hope there is enough room on the 49ers bandwagon for me. If not, I can easily jump off. I don't feel great about this pick, but I'm tired of picking against San Francisco and picking wrong. The NFC has been much more consistent this year.
New England at NY Jets:
Brady already lost at home last week, so I'm surprised the sun came up on Monday. But, really, the Pats lose three straight? The Jets have the right combination of guys to play man on the New England receivers and shut them down. They're playing well enough on offense to score enough to win. Right now, the Jets are trending up and the Patriots are trending down.
Minnesota at Green Bay:
But, there's no stopping the trend of Packers victories. At least this week. I'll keep picking them until they lose. If they lose, I'll probably pick them again because Aaron Rodgers has a 100 QBERT rating and he's on my fantasy team (the good one).
Line of the Week:
Giants (+3.5) at 49ers. Something about this game reeks of a three point victory. That smell might just be the gash on my arm getting infected. I cut it when I jumped on the 49ers bandwagon.
Moneyline of the Week:
Detroit (+136) at Chicago. I picked a lot of upsets this week, but this is the one I'm most confident in.
Over/Under of the Week:
Oakland at San Diego (47.5/UNDER). Scoring is down across the league the last few weeks (by "down" I mean 43 points per game). These two teams have struggled at different points on both sides of the ball and they're both turnover machines. How is it that they score more than the average this week? I don't see it.
San Diego over Oakland
Steelers over Bengals
Denver over Kansas City
Indianapolis over Jacksonville
Houston over Tampa
Dallas over Buffalo
Carolina over Tennessee
Miami over Washington
Atlanta over NOLA
Detroit over Chicago
Cleveland over St. Louis
Philadelphia over Arizona
Seattle over Baltimore
San Francisco over NY Giants
NY Jets over New England
Green Bay over Minnesota
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