Browns Review and Vikings Preview

Well, I'm sorry. It's been a long couple of weeks and I have been under the gun in several key areas, most notably at work, where I've had all this work stuff to do and haven't been able to devote as much time to my blog.

Thoughts about the Cleveland game:

1. We had 557 total yards, they had 213 total yards. And we only beat them by 13. At home. In a division game. Where we figured we'd be able to gain ground on the Bengals and the hated Ravens.
   
2. Part of the reason we didn't score as much as the yards would indicate is that we had four turnovers.
3. But, we also forced three turnovers.
4. And we got crushed on special teams.
5. And we sucked in the red zone.
6. And we really, really sucked in goal-to-go situations.
7. I have a feeling that the red zone and goal-to-go issues will sort themselves out over time, but we were supposed to re-gain our special teams advantage after Vulva came back and Stefan Logan joined the team. Thus far, Logan has not turned his preseason success into regular season production. And that's hurting the Steelers. The good news is that Vulva is as good as ever.
8. I still feel uneasy in the fourth quarter.
9. Other teams still have that look in their eye like they might come back in the fourth quarter.
10. We should have defeated the Browns and Lions by more than 21 points total in back-to-back weeks.

Now the Minnesota Vikings come to town. I wrote in August (scroll towards the bottom) that Favre signing with the Vikings was going to assassinate their season. Well, thus far, that prediction isn't working out so well. But, it's early in the season. The Jets started out 8-3 last season before Favre got hurt/imploded like he always does and they ended up missing the playoffs. He can still assassinate their season. I just don't think it happens Sunday. Partially because Sunday's game isn't important enough to kill the season for either team. Partially because I don't think that he's going to be the reason they lose (if they lose at all).

Here's the thing: I actually think that, top to bottom, we have the better team. I think that they have their stars, we have our stars, and, ultimately, our team outweighs their star power. I also think that cohesion and team-outweighing-star-power advantage means a lot more in December and January when everyone is freezing and exhausted. But, that also means that they're fresh right now.

Brett Favre took the offseason off, didn't have all the reps and the throws and the hits and even the preseason to wear on his body, so he's not worn out. Adrian Peterson had the offseason to rest and recuperate, he only has 120 carries thus far this season, and he's young, so he doesn't wear down quite so easy, but he does tend to hit a wall of sorts around Week 14 when the fantasy football playoffs kick into high gear.

Overall, I think our offensive line actually holds an edge over their defensive line, because the Williamses (Pat and Kevin, the defensive tackles) don't seem to be as effective since they tested positive for banned substances and Jared Allen can be run on, as he's always trying to get to the quarterback and mostly ignores the running back. I also think that, if we choose to, we can be successful doing some running back screens. We used to throw them to Willie Parker all the time. We can bring that back. We can throw a few to Mendenhall. We don't have to keep throwing bubble screens to Hines and Heath. If we take the time to set up a screen, I think we can be successful.

Our defensive line is better than their offensive line. Early on in his career, Peterson's line made him look better. At this point, he's making his line look better. They're not pulling and trapping as well, they're not blowing people off the ball, and they just don't, in general, seem to be as interested in blocking people anymore because, well, Adrian is just going to juke the defender and run by him.

I think our receivers are better than their receivers. I think our receivers are better than their defensive backs. I think our defensive backs are better than their receivers. Our linebackers are better than their linebackers (even though it's close). I think Roethlisberger, at this point, is a better quarterback than Favre.

As I said, I think we're the better team top-to-bottom. The only place where they have a decided advantage is in special teams, where Percy Harvin is way better than Stefan Logan. He's way better than everyone in the league not named Devin Hester or Josh Cribbs.

So, the Steelers are at home, they have the better team, and they have a history of stopping elite running backs, so that means they'll stop Peterson, the home crowd will take over, and they'll win the game, right?

Well, that sounds all well and good, but the fact remains that the Vikings have the number two scoring offense in the league (31.5 points per game) and the number 18 scoring defense in the league (20.2 points per game), while the Steelers have the 14th (23.3) and 11th (18.7), respectively. The Steelers are much more impressive in terms of their yardage rankings, but Minnesota goes out and gets it done.

They also have luck on their side. They complete Hail Mary passes to the back of the end zone with 12 seconds left. They blow 21 point fourth quarter leads, mismanage the clock, and their opponent still misses a field goal. As of right now, they're cool, calm, collected, and extremely lucky. And talented. And confident. And they want to make a statement against the defending champs. And they all love Brett Favre at this point and they'll believe anything he says, like when he tells them they can win this game.

I also don't think that Brad Childress is a good coach, but he hasn't killed them thus far.

This is one of those midseason "statement games" that teams that are trying to establish themselves try extra-special hard to win. We had two in a row in 2004 and won both of them against the Patriots and Eagles. We lost our statement game against the Giants last year, but won statement games against the Patriots and Cowboys.

The point is that regular season statement games don't really mean that much. And veteran teams like the Steelers understand that. But, they also understand that all wins are important. So, they'll probably fall behind by a couple touchdowns, make a furious comeback in the fourth quarter, and eventually lose on a play that may or may not be considered fluky.

I think the Steelers are the better team, they'll be the better team if these two clubs meet in February, and they're more complete overall, but that the Vikings are the team that wins this game in late October. They win this game because it means more to them than it does to the Steelers. They win this game because they want it more. They win this game because, at this point, they're the better team.

Prediction: Vikings 27, Steelers 24

Steelers vs. Browns Preview

As I've written previously, the Bengals are like the younger brother of the Steelers. We can hate on them, but, ultimately, we think that they're cute when they try really really hard.

To extend the metaphor, the Browns are the middle brother. We know their strengths, we know their weaknesses, we know where they came from, and we know how to handle them if they suddenly decide to get squirrely. In recent history, we've beaten them unmerciful.

We've won the last 11 games against the Browns. We kept them from winning the division in 2007 and we beat the mighty Kelly Holcomb in the playoffs in 2002. Between their rebirth in 1999 and today, we're 18-3 against them and the last time they beat us was October 2003. I had just gotten married at that point. That's a long time.

This season, they're 1-4, they traded Braylon Edwards for a bunch of guys that Eric Mangini likes, and we're 3-2. Last season, we won the Super Bowl. We've won two Super Bowls (seriously, we won Super Bowl XL and XLIII, don't know if I threw those facts out any point) since they last beat us.

Given recent history, I don't think there's any way that they win this game. I picked the Steelers in my Survivor Pool and I am not at all nervous. I think that we win, but I think it's going to be a close game.

I know they suck. I am aware of this fact. I'm aware of the fact that they defeated the opprobrious Bills 6-3 only because they put their closer in with the bases loaded in the eighth inning. I know that starting quarterback Derek Anderson was 2-for-17 with only 23 yards and an interception in their last game. I also know that they played the Bengals tough and the Bengals, whether we like it are not, are leading the division currently, they beat us, and they're 3-0 in the division. The Bengals are a good team, so help me, and the Browns gave them a game.

I would also like to add that the "rivalry" that exists between the Browns and the Steelers is mostly on the side of Cleveland. They hate us. We always win. We've won six Super Bowls and they have never been. That hate is valuable. That hate is palpable. That hate is something that Magini can use to make a game of it on Sunday.

I also think that the defense is going to need to adjust to the loss of Aaron Smith and the re-addition of Troy Polamalu. I think that, ultimately, Smith's loss is going to be our gain, but I think that's in the long term. In the short term, the defense is going to be disoriented -- even more than they've been thus far -- and they're going to give up gaps and make mistakes. In the short term, they're going to expect Troy to come flying in, but, in the short term, he's not going to be well enough and adjusted enough to do that. Everyone needs time when they come back to the office from a vacation to get re-adjusted and football players are no different.

I think that they score on us quite a little bit and possibly Joshua Cribbs scores on a return. But, I think that we're too much better from top to bottom to lose a game to a team that's crazed and pissed off and that's it. They're not anywhere near as talented as we are and that will prove itself out throughout the course of the game.

This game is extremely important to the Cleveland Browns, but it is also important to the Pittsburgh Steelers. They know how important it is to show up for division games. They know how important it is to not host Minnesota next week at .500. They know they can't fall behind the pace in the division.

The Steelers will take care of business on Sunday, but it won't be easy. It won't be as easy as the 14 point line (which is ridiculous, by the way) seems to suggest.

Prediction: Steelers 27, Browns 21.

Steelers vs. Lions Review

Well, I was in Seattle and didn't catch the game because I was taking a tour of Underground Seattle.

It's actually a very cool tourism destination with enough different, fun things to do that pretty much anyone can go there and find something interesting to occupy their time. They're still bitter about that whole Super Bowl XL thing (which the Steelers won, by the way), which isn't cool, but I ran into a lot of very nice people and had a ton of great food.

From what I heard, the Steelers looked great in the first three quarters, then almost choked everything away in the fourth quarter. The hell you say! The more I think about it, the more I think the theories that I have about the Steeler defense are correct.

I would like to take this opportunity to also point out that star defensive lineman and former Pro Bowler Aaron Smith was placed on injured reserve today.

That doesn't help, but it may be helpful to get some youth infused on that line, see what Ziggy Hood can do, or possibly Nick Eason. I think there will be a dropoff, of course, because Aaron Smith is really, really good at what he does. But the silver lining there is that both Hood and Eason are about 15 years younger than Smith, so at least they'll be consistent. They'll be consistently worse than Smith at the beginning of the game, but they'll still have plenty left in the tank in the fourth quarter.

This is not to say that we should hope that all members of the over 30 gang get hurt, it's just to say that Smith getting hurt now and getting put on IR now will suck less than, say, him getting hurt and getting put on IR towards the end of the 2007 season. That was disastrous. This is just highly inconvenient. And, who knows, if Hood goes in and plays great, that could mean that the 2009 draft class was a success. Mendenhall is starting to bail out the 2008 class, Vulva, Gay, and Timmons (sounds like a malpractice firm that only goes after OBGYNs) bailed out the 2007 class, and Hood, Joe Burnett, and Mike Wallace could make the 2009 class not so bad.

Ultimately, the personality of the team is changing. Tomlin has said numerous times that every season is different, every season has its own personality, and everything develops in its own time.

This team is very different from the 2008 team, obviously, but we're not sure what the personality of it is yet. All I know is that we aren't likely to see another 13-9 victory or a 10-6 victory, or a 15-6 loss. We have already allowed 20 or more points in a game three times (three times in a row, actually) and we only did that five times total in 2008. But, we've also scored 28 or more points twice (again, in a row) and we only did that four times all of last season.

The team is changing, the personality is forming, and we should have a better idea of where they are and what they're like by the time the bye week rolls around.

It'll be interesting to see how they deal with a fiesty, but crappy adversary (Cleveland) and a team that has looked great so far but maybe leans on the running game too much and won't be able to count on their quarterback as the season wears on (Minnesota).

After that, we get a frisky Broncos team and a revenge game against the Bengals. The next month or so will determine the course of the season and the personality of the team. I'm looking forward to seeing how they respond and how everything shakes out.

I'm really, really scared that it might be bad, but I'm looking forward to it.

Steelers vs. Lions Preview

Seriously? It's the Lions.

Thus far this century, they're 41-107. That's a .277 winning percentage. That means that, on average, they're 4-12 since 2000. That's worse than the Pirates.

I know they're at home.

I know we're the defending champs and we have a bullseye on our chests.

I know they signed Larry Foote and he knows our defense inside and out.

I also know that Troy should be back for this game.

I also know that the players know they won by ten last week and aren't satisfied (for the most part).

I also know that the Lions have won 11 out of their last 52 games. They went 0-16 last season.

I know we choked away a loss against the Bengals, but this is a less talented team than the one the Bengals have.

Just trust me. We're 10 1/2 point favorites on the road.

I think we cover.

I think we make Matthew Stafford our bitch.

I think we roll.

I think I said this for the Bengals game.

Prediction:
Steelers 34, Lions 13

Steelers vs. Chargers Review

First of all, I would like to point out that I am now 13-1 overall and 4-0 against the San Diego Chargers. You're welcome.

Second of all, I would like to point out the following: The Steelers were up 28-0 and 35-14 at different points throughout the course of this game, but neither myself nor anyone in the stadium felt completely comfortable that the outcome of the game was secured until Jeff Reed kicked a field goal with 43 seconds remaining.

Sure, the Stefan Logan fumble was fluky play. Sure, if you're a Chargers fan, you feel as though there's no doubt that the play called on the field was accurate and that it was a fumble recovered for a touchdown. Sure, if you're a Steelers fan, you feel supremely violated by the refs. The point is that the play was challenged, the refs took a look at it, and were unable to conclusively overrule the play as called. If it was called down by contact, they probably couldn't have overruled that, either. So it was close.

Sure, the Chargers recovered an onside kick, which almost never happens.

But what we can take away from this Steelers victory are the following points:

1. We won by ten points in a game that we dominated and everyone was upset about it.
2. When Jacob Hester scored on the aforementioned fumble recovery, there was a loud popping sound that could be heard in Heinz Field and that popping sound was the sphincters of everyone in the stadium puckering.

When that fumble happened and the Chargers looked unstoppable on offense, everyone -- everyone that stayed, that is -- had the same thoughts running through their heads. "Ah, crap. Not again. This is not happening again. Is this happening again? I think it's happening again."

Consider:

1. We had 510 yards of total offense. I had to check the box score, I'm not going to lie. I have to admit, though, that I thought the number was higher. At the end of the third quarter, I seriously thought we had 500 yards of total offense.
2. Through the first three quarters, we held the vaunted Chargers offense to seven points. Seven.
3. We had 177 yards rushing. Of those 177 yards, 165 came from a guy that a number of people had labeled as a bust and that Mike Tomlin had benched the week before.
4. Given all that, we felt the need to run a trick play on first and goal from the six to score a touchdown.

Just a weird, weird game. We pushed around a once proud defense. We kicked the hell out of the prohibitive favorite to win the AFC West entering the season. And we felt bad about it. And, yet, we were justified.

This brings about two key questions that seek to set the collective minds of Steeler Nation at ease:

1. Is the running game back?
2. Can we trust the defense?

Well, for number one, I really don't know. The offensive line looked good, Mendenhall looked sharp, but the Chargers were undermanned and we were fired up. Really, Bam Morris or Barry Foster would've looked good given those circumstances.

We're not going to get a real answer in the next two weeks because we play Detroit, then Cleveland, and both of those teams suck.

Then, we play Minnesota. At home. We will know then. For sures. I have circled that date on my calender and I hope the Steelers offensive line has as well.

For number two, I... I have to say no. I think there are a couple of factors in play here.

Factor Number One is that the average age of the defensive line is death, so they're bound to wear down over the course of the game. Even though we only have three defensive linemen, the key to the success of any 3-4 team is the three guys up front. Our three guys up front are old. They're tired. They have two rings each and there's only so much you can do to motivate a guy given those parameters. Even when someone like Mike Tomlin or Dick LeBeau is feeding them the "one game at a time, one play at a time" rhetoric, it only goes so far.

Are they washed up? Are they not worth it? Of course not. When playing to the best of their abilities, they're still really damn good. I think the first three quarters of each of the last three games proves that. They're just old. They're millionaires. They have two rings. I'd get in their faces and yell at them and slap them around, but they're bigger than me.

Factor Number Two is that the offense is starting to come into its own. It's evolving. It's becoming the focus of the team. After all the great drives and clutch plays of the past 23 games (2008 season plus playoffs plus four games this year), the defense has come to depend on the offense. Previously, in 2007 and 2006, they had no one to depend on but themselves. I think you see this happening a little bit with the hated Ravens as well. For years, the defense couldn't let up, couldn't yield, because they'd be writing checks the offense couldn't cash. Now? They have a unibrowed golden boy and they can afford to let this receiver slip by or that tackle go unmade.

I don't like to mention this, but the hated Ravens have a bunch of young guys on defense. Guys that are hungry. Guys that don't have two rings and millions and millions of dollars in the bank. They'll come back angry and hungry because they have unfinished business ahead of them. Our guys? You can't make that same claim about them.

The Steelers are currently among the worst defenses in terms of points in every fantasy league I'm involved in. They're not getting sacks. They're not getting shutouts or keeping points off the board. They're not forcing turnovers. They're not scoring touchdowns. They're also not available as a free agent.

Maybe that's because I live in Pittsburgh and everyone still has faith that they'll turn it around. Maybe that's because everyone's hoping that everything will turn around once Troy comes back (expected to happen this weekend against Detroit!) Maybe, collectively, we're ignoring Factor One and Factor Two.

I hope I'm wrong. I hope that the factors I've talked about aren't the issue. I hope it's something else, anything else. I hope that, as Tomlin has said, the personality and makeup of a team develops over the course of a season and this is our early wakeup call. I hope I'm totally full of bullshit and I'm just being reactionary.

But, I don't think I am. And that sucks.

Steelers vs. Chargers Preview

First some thoughts on the implosion against the Bengals:

1. Well, so much for us dominating, eh? Who's the idiot that said that would happen? Oh, right.
2. The running game is not back. We still can't gain four yards on third and three. Still can't gain a foot and a half on fourth and goal. It was the Bengals. I am managing my expectations and not expecting Fast Willie to bust out for 100 yards against the Chargers, or possibly the rest of the season, except for maybe against the Browns or Lions.
3. That last drive by the Bengals was a master stroke. Sure, we shouldn't have coughed up a conversion on fourth and ten to some random white dude, but they made sure by how they managed the clock that they would either win or lose on that drive. Nicely done by them. More than I have come to expect from Marvin Lewis.
4. Limas Sweed and Rashard Mendenhall should not have been called out in the media. Tomlin is using that as a weapon, when he should go all Santonio Holmes on them. Worked out well last season.
5. Speaking of Holmes, he's fighting the ball. That's no good.
6. Speaking of the defense, they miss Troy. That much is obvious. However, they have no excuse for not forcing any turnovers the last two games. This needs to change. Stat.
7. They also need to stop being clutch. They need to bring back the "someone is going to make a play" mentality. I had that mentality as the Bengals were driving for the win. I just assumed we'd stop them. We didn't. I assumed we'd stop Cutler and the Bears in Week 2. We didn't. Therefore, I no longer have that mentality. I hope that's not the case with the guys that actually are supposed to play defense. My mentality matters not. I'm just some asshole with a blog. They need to get their swagger back, because it's currently gone.
8. I seriously believe it's time to pick up Mike Wallace if you play in a deep fantasy league with a lot of roster spots or a lot of teams. He and Hines Ward (and possibly Heath) are the only guys playing out there right now.

For this week... I really don't know. I would trust the 2008 Steelers to win this game. I wouldn't trust them to dominate, but I would trust them to make enough plays to win. Home crowd, two straight tough losses, prime time, this is the kind of situation where they would have shined last year.

I haven't lost faith in the magic of last year, but I have also come to terms with how special last year's run was. We have the same problems this year that we had for most of last year -- especially down the stretch -- but we were able to overcome those problems on shear balls and willpower. I have not seen the balls and willpower thus far this year, with the possible exception of the fourth quarter and overtime against the Titans. And that could've been muscle memory, not balls and willpower.

Philip Rivers is averaging 330 yards a game. He has more yards than Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady. And Kurt Warner. And really anyone else you can name, because he leads the league in yards per game.

Darren Sproles is a scary player. He doesn't scare me as a ball carrier, but he scares the hell out of me as a receiver. We did, after all, give up a super long passing touchdown to him in the Divisional Playoff round last year, regardless of whether or not the outcome was already decided.

Their defense is frisky, even if I am not starting them in fantasy this week (starting Washington against the hapless Bucs instead). Without Jamal Williams plugging up the middle (he always kills us) we may be able to run, but I wouldn't count on it.

They have a swagger. They expect to win this game. They're ready for us. This is different than an upstart Bengals team playing over their heads. This is a talented team that doesn't have a shred of doubt in their minds that they will be victorious. And that's dangerous.

On the other hand, they have basically the same players and the same coach as 2008. And we pretty much ruled them in two games in 2008. We have basically the same players and the same coach.

It's prime time. It's at home. Tomlin has been beating these guys up on the practice field and in the media. Hopefully, they're angry. Possibly, they're too beat down. I really don't know.

It could be that I was deflated after reading this on ESPN.com: http://espn.go.com/blog/afcnorth/post/_/id/3715/trouble-in-steel-town.

There's a lot of issues addressed there. A lot of problems. A lot of things that need to be fixed. Can we fix them? I think we can, but I don't know that we can fix them all in one week. And that's pretty much what we need to do.

If we can fix them, at least for this game, the schedule gets easier. We don't have to play the hated Ravens until November, which is a blessing (and a curse). And, actually, if we were playing the hated Ravens on Sunday night, I'd feel comfortable guaranteeing a victory. Against the Chargers? This Sunday night? I don't.

HOWEVER, I will say this: Weidman and I are going to the game. I am 12-1 and his record is comparable. I am 3-0 against the Chargers, including last year's playoff win. And that's a 3-0 record that spans 15 years and pre-dates Heinz Field.

Still... my predictions have been dead freakin' wrong thus far.

Prediction: Chargers 23, Steelers 13

Steelers vs. Bengals Preview

Basically, there are two things that scare me about this game:

1. Carson Palmer.
2. The Bengals just won a big road game at Lambeau Field, are fired up, and are at home.

There's the usual thing about, "They hate us because they suck and we've won six Super Bowls," but that's been going on in some capacity since 1995. Since 1992, we've won the division ten times and they've won it once. That's a pretty big disparity. Just like with the Browns, they're a bunch of jealous haters that realize they squandered their one opportunity to take us down a peg earlier this decade (Kelly Holcomb, Dropcutt, blown lead for the Browns in 2002, Kimo Kills Carson, blown lead for the Bengals in 2005).

For the most part, we look at the Bengals and Browns as a cute, significantly younger brother that tries to beat us at pick-up basketball even though they're a foot and a half shorter. They hate it, we're ambivalent almost to the point that we think it's adorable.

Every now and again, they make a game of it through pure hate (and some talent). For the most part, if we're up for the game, we crush them.

We're up for this game for two reasons:

1. Mike Tomlin.
2. We're pissed that we lost last week.

For those reasons, I think we crush them.

And that's that.

Well, not really, but that's basically that.

They're going to be fired up. They're going to come out swinging in the first half. If we take their best shot and we're still standing, we'll pull away in the second half.

At some point, they're going to realize that their "big win" is that a 4-11-1 team from 2008 beat a 6-10 team from 2008. Sure, they could be 2-0 if it weren't for an incredibly improbable play against the Broncos in Week 1, but we'd be 2-0 if it weren't for two consecutive and equally improbable misses from Jeff Reed last week.

Don't get me wrong, I have a lot of faith in the Bengals. But, "A lot of faith in the Bengals," translates literally to, "I think they have a good shot of going 8-8."

Here's why they don't scare me:

1. Palmer is 2-6 lifetime against the Steelers with 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions (thought he had more picks against us, but Pro Football Reference says no), has averaged 202 yards passing a game, and has a 78.5 passer rating. Three of those touchdown passes came in the 2005 game when they clinched the division and forced us to become the only sixth seed in the history of the NFL to win the Super Bowl. So, take out that game and he still averages 200 yards a game, but only has ten touchdown passes. The point here is that I'm dumb for being scared of Carson Palmer.
2. Ben Roethlisberger is 8-2 against the Bengals with 15 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and an 88.2 passer rating. Not a huge difference, but he's 8-2 and Carson is 2-6, so that has to count for something, right?
3. Cedric Benson is a scrub. His girlfriend left him because he couldn't find the hole. After a decent 2008 season playing against some of the worst run defenses in the league and a solid performance against Green Bay, I'm supposed to believe he's an all-star? I'm selling that. He's not as good as Chris Johnson or Matt Forte and we shut those guys down. Which means the game falls on the shoulders of Carson Palmer. Who scares me. But I'm dumb for feeling that way. So there you go.
4. Our guys are pissed. On Sunday, they were crestfallen and shocked. Come Tuesday, they were pissed. That feeling hasn't waned -- it has, in fact intensified -- since then, so that's worth ten points. In the Cowher Era, it was worth 17 points. But Tomlin has these players playing angry. In past games, we'd come out flat and the Bengals would be fired up and we'd have to establish dominance after halftime. This week, we're ready.
5. Week 6 in 2006. We crushed the Kansas City Chiefs. Just destroyed them. That was the point where we realized we didn't have a coach and got motivated. This season, we have a coach and are motivated.
6. Seriously. It's the Bengals.

I think we stop Benson.

I think Carson Palmer once again makes me look dumb for being scared of him.

I think their re-vamped defense turtles by the midpoint of the second quarter once they realize how much we like to hit people.

I think their best shot won't phase us.

I think we roll.

Prediction: Steelers 34, Bengals 14