I wanted to make a separate entry for this.
When I first heard that Jeff Reed was arrested after Sunday's game, I thought, "Crap. That means he'll be suspended by the team for the next game." Sure, that also meant that Matt Spaeth would be suspended, because he played a part in the altercation with police and was also charged, but, uh, he's Matt Spaeth.
Then it came to light that Reed would not be suspended. And I thought that was strange. Santonio Holmes got suspended for getting arrested in 2008 and it turned his season around. So, I figured that was team policy. Get arrested, get suspended. I guess that's not the case.
Now, I trust Mike Tomlin. I think that he's a very reputable man and a stand up guy. When he explained that he suspended Santonio because he didn't have enough time to gather information before game time. News of the Holmes arrest hit on 10/24/08 and he was suspended for the following game against the Giants on 10/26/08. Tomlin announced the suspension on 10/25, one day after the news broke.
Reed was arrested on 10/18/09 and it was announced that he wouldn't be suspended on 10/20/09... two days later. So, two days is enough time to gather information, but one day is not? Sure, Holmes got arrested two days before kickoff, which is much different than getting arrested eight hours after kickoff for the previous week's game, but it seems like there is a double standard in play.
This is not to suggest that it's a race issue, because I don't think it is. I think it's a value issue. Even though the kicker position is largely reviled in the NFL, it's still a very valuable position. This decision means that Reed is more important to the team than Holmes. This decision means that, even though Reed got arrested and was clearly in the wrong, he has the advantage when he and the team go to the bargaining table before free agency starts and after the season ends.
I'm not sure that they played this right in terms of negotiation tactics, but I think they made the right decision if they're interested in winning the game on Sunday, which they obviously are.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Browns Review and Vikings Preview
Well, I'm sorry. It's been a long couple of weeks and I have been under the gun in several key areas, most notably at work, where I've had all this work stuff to do and haven't been able to devote as much time to my blog.
Thoughts about the Cleveland game:
Here's the thing: I actually think that, top to bottom, we have the better team. I think that they have their stars, we have our stars, and, ultimately, our team outweighs their star power. I also think that cohesion and team-outweighing-star-power advantage means a lot more in December and January when everyone is freezing and exhausted. But, that also means that they're fresh right now.
Brett Favre took the offseason off, didn't have all the reps and the throws and the hits and even the preseason to wear on his body, so he's not worn out. Adrian Peterson had the offseason to rest and recuperate, he only has 120 carries thus far this season, and he's young, so he doesn't wear down quite so easy, but he does tend to hit a wall of sorts around Week 14 when the fantasy football playoffs kick into high gear.
Overall, I think our offensive line actually holds an edge over their defensive line, because the Williamses (Pat and Kevin, the defensive tackles) don't seem to be as effective since they tested positive for banned substances and Jared Allen can be run on, as he's always trying to get to the quarterback and mostly ignores the running back. I also think that, if we choose to, we can be successful doing some running back screens. We used to throw them to Willie Parker all the time. We can bring that back. We can throw a few to Mendenhall. We don't have to keep throwing bubble screens to Hines and Heath. If we take the time to set up a screen, I think we can be successful.
Our defensive line is better than their offensive line. Early on in his career, Peterson's line made him look better. At this point, he's making his line look better. They're not pulling and trapping as well, they're not blowing people off the ball, and they just don't, in general, seem to be as interested in blocking people anymore because, well, Adrian is just going to juke the defender and run by him.
I think our receivers are better than their receivers. I think our receivers are better than their defensive backs. I think our defensive backs are better than their receivers. Our linebackers are better than their linebackers (even though it's close). I think Roethlisberger, at this point, is a better quarterback than Favre.
As I said, I think we're the better team top-to-bottom. The only place where they have a decided advantage is in special teams, where Percy Harvin is way better than Stefan Logan. He's way better than everyone in the league not named Devin Hester or Josh Cribbs.
So, the Steelers are at home, they have the better team, and they have a history of stopping elite running backs, so that means they'll stop Peterson, the home crowd will take over, and they'll win the game, right?
Well, that sounds all well and good, but the fact remains that the Vikings have the number two scoring offense in the league (31.5 points per game) and the number 18 scoring defense in the league (20.2 points per game), while the Steelers have the 14th (23.3) and 11th (18.7), respectively. The Steelers are much more impressive in terms of their yardage rankings, but Minnesota goes out and gets it done.
They also have luck on their side. They complete Hail Mary passes to the back of the end zone with 12 seconds left. They blow 21 point fourth quarter leads, mismanage the clock, and their opponent still misses a field goal. As of right now, they're cool, calm, collected, and extremely lucky. And talented. And confident. And they want to make a statement against the defending champs. And they all love Brett Favre at this point and they'll believe anything he says, like when he tells them they can win this game.
I also don't think that Brad Childress is a good coach, but he hasn't killed them thus far.
This is one of those midseason "statement games" that teams that are trying to establish themselves try extra-special hard to win. We had two in a row in 2004 and won both of them against the Patriots and Eagles. We lost our statement game against the Giants last year, but won statement games against the Patriots and Cowboys.
The point is that regular season statement games don't really mean that much. And veteran teams like the Steelers understand that. But, they also understand that all wins are important. So, they'll probably fall behind by a couple touchdowns, make a furious comeback in the fourth quarter, and eventually lose on a play that may or may not be considered fluky.
I think the Steelers are the better team, they'll be the better team if these two clubs meet in February, and they're more complete overall, but that the Vikings are the team that wins this game in late October. They win this game because it means more to them than it does to the Steelers. They win this game because they want it more. They win this game because, at this point, they're the better team.
Prediction: Vikings 27, Steelers 24
Thoughts about the Cleveland game:
- We had 557 total yards, they had 213 total yards. And we only beat them by 13. At home. In a division game. Where we figured we'd be able to gain ground on the Bengals and the hated Ravens.
- Part of the reason we didn't score as much as the yards would indicate is that we had four turnovers.
- But, we also forced three turnovers.
- And we got crushed on special teams.
- And we sucked in the red zone.
- And we really, really sucked in goal-to-go situations.
- I have a feeling that the red zone and goal-to-go issues will sort themselves out over time, but we were supposed to re-gain our special teams advantage after Vulva came back and Stefan Logan joined the team. Thus far, Logan has not turned his preseason success into regular season production. And that's hurting the Steelers. The good news is that Vulva is as good as ever.
- I still feel uneasy in the fourth quarter.
- Other teams still have that look in their eye like they might come back in the fourth quarter.
- We should have defeated the Browns and Lions by more than 21 points total in back-to-back weeks.
Here's the thing: I actually think that, top to bottom, we have the better team. I think that they have their stars, we have our stars, and, ultimately, our team outweighs their star power. I also think that cohesion and team-outweighing-star-power advantage means a lot more in December and January when everyone is freezing and exhausted. But, that also means that they're fresh right now.
Brett Favre took the offseason off, didn't have all the reps and the throws and the hits and even the preseason to wear on his body, so he's not worn out. Adrian Peterson had the offseason to rest and recuperate, he only has 120 carries thus far this season, and he's young, so he doesn't wear down quite so easy, but he does tend to hit a wall of sorts around Week 14 when the fantasy football playoffs kick into high gear.
Overall, I think our offensive line actually holds an edge over their defensive line, because the Williamses (Pat and Kevin, the defensive tackles) don't seem to be as effective since they tested positive for banned substances and Jared Allen can be run on, as he's always trying to get to the quarterback and mostly ignores the running back. I also think that, if we choose to, we can be successful doing some running back screens. We used to throw them to Willie Parker all the time. We can bring that back. We can throw a few to Mendenhall. We don't have to keep throwing bubble screens to Hines and Heath. If we take the time to set up a screen, I think we can be successful.
Our defensive line is better than their offensive line. Early on in his career, Peterson's line made him look better. At this point, he's making his line look better. They're not pulling and trapping as well, they're not blowing people off the ball, and they just don't, in general, seem to be as interested in blocking people anymore because, well, Adrian is just going to juke the defender and run by him.
I think our receivers are better than their receivers. I think our receivers are better than their defensive backs. I think our defensive backs are better than their receivers. Our linebackers are better than their linebackers (even though it's close). I think Roethlisberger, at this point, is a better quarterback than Favre.
As I said, I think we're the better team top-to-bottom. The only place where they have a decided advantage is in special teams, where Percy Harvin is way better than Stefan Logan. He's way better than everyone in the league not named Devin Hester or Josh Cribbs.
So, the Steelers are at home, they have the better team, and they have a history of stopping elite running backs, so that means they'll stop Peterson, the home crowd will take over, and they'll win the game, right?
Well, that sounds all well and good, but the fact remains that the Vikings have the number two scoring offense in the league (31.5 points per game) and the number 18 scoring defense in the league (20.2 points per game), while the Steelers have the 14th (23.3) and 11th (18.7), respectively. The Steelers are much more impressive in terms of their yardage rankings, but Minnesota goes out and gets it done.
They also have luck on their side. They complete Hail Mary passes to the back of the end zone with 12 seconds left. They blow 21 point fourth quarter leads, mismanage the clock, and their opponent still misses a field goal. As of right now, they're cool, calm, collected, and extremely lucky. And talented. And confident. And they want to make a statement against the defending champs. And they all love Brett Favre at this point and they'll believe anything he says, like when he tells them they can win this game.
I also don't think that Brad Childress is a good coach, but he hasn't killed them thus far.
This is one of those midseason "statement games" that teams that are trying to establish themselves try extra-special hard to win. We had two in a row in 2004 and won both of them against the Patriots and Eagles. We lost our statement game against the Giants last year, but won statement games against the Patriots and Cowboys.
The point is that regular season statement games don't really mean that much. And veteran teams like the Steelers understand that. But, they also understand that all wins are important. So, they'll probably fall behind by a couple touchdowns, make a furious comeback in the fourth quarter, and eventually lose on a play that may or may not be considered fluky.
I think the Steelers are the better team, they'll be the better team if these two clubs meet in February, and they're more complete overall, but that the Vikings are the team that wins this game in late October. They win this game because it means more to them than it does to the Steelers. They win this game because they want it more. They win this game because, at this point, they're the better team.
Prediction: Vikings 27, Steelers 24
Friday, October 16, 2009
Steelers vs. Browns Preview
As I've written previously, the Bengals are like the younger brother of the Steelers. We can hate on them, but, ultimately, we think that they're cute when they try really really hard.
To extend the metaphor, the Browns are the middle brother. We know their strengths, we know their weaknesses, we know where they came from, and we know how to handle them if they suddenly decide to get squirrely. In recent history, we've beaten them unmerciful.
We've won the last 11 games against the Browns. We kept them from winning the division in 2007 and we beat the mighty Kelly Holcomb in the playoffs in 2002. Between their rebirth in 1999 and today, we're 18-3 against them and the last time they beat us was October 2003. I had just gotten married at that point. That's a long time.
This season, they're 1-4, they traded Braylon Edwards for a bunch of guys that Eric Mangini likes, and we're 3-2. Last season, we won the Super Bowl. We've won two Super Bowls (seriously, we won Super Bowl XL and XLIII, don't know if I threw those facts out any point) since they last beat us.
Given recent history, I don't think there's any way that they win this game. I picked the Steelers in my Survivor Pool and I am not at all nervous. I think that we win, but I think it's going to be a close game.
I know they suck. I am aware of this fact. I'm aware of the fact that they defeated the opprobrious Bills 6-3 only because they put their closer in with the bases loaded in the eighth inning. I know that starting quarterback Derek Anderson was 2-for-17 with only 23 yards and an interception in their last game. I also know that they played the Bengals tough and the Bengals, whether we like it are not, are leading the division currently, they beat us, and they're 3-0 in the division. The Bengals are a good team, so help me, and the Browns gave them a game.
I would also like to add that the "rivalry" that exists between the Browns and the Steelers is mostly on the side of Cleveland. They hate us. We always win. We've won six Super Bowls and they have never been. That hate is valuable. That hate is palpable. That hate is something that Magini can use to make a game of it on Sunday.
I also think that the defense is going to need to adjust to the loss of Aaron Smith and the re-addition of Troy Polamalu. I think that, ultimately, Smith's loss is going to be our gain, but I think that's in the long term. In the short term, the defense is going to be disoriented -- even more than they've been thus far -- and they're going to give up gaps and make mistakes. In the short term, they're going to expect Troy to come flying in, but, in the short term, he's not going to be well enough and adjusted enough to do that. Everyone needs time when they come back to the office from a vacation to get re-adjusted and football players are no different.
I think that they score on us quite a little bit and possibly Joshua Cribbs scores on a return. But, I think that we're too much better from top to bottom to lose a game to a team that's crazed and pissed off and that's it. They're not anywhere near as talented as we are and that will prove itself out throughout the course of the game.
This game is extremely important to the Cleveland Browns, but it is also important to the Pittsburgh Steelers. They know how important it is to show up for division games. They know how important it is to not host Minnesota next week at .500. They know they can't fall behind the pace in the division.
The Steelers will take care of business on Sunday, but it won't be easy. It won't be as easy as the 14 point line (which is ridiculous, by the way) seems to suggest.
Prediction: Steelers 27, Browns 21.
To extend the metaphor, the Browns are the middle brother. We know their strengths, we know their weaknesses, we know where they came from, and we know how to handle them if they suddenly decide to get squirrely. In recent history, we've beaten them unmerciful.
We've won the last 11 games against the Browns. We kept them from winning the division in 2007 and we beat the mighty Kelly Holcomb in the playoffs in 2002. Between their rebirth in 1999 and today, we're 18-3 against them and the last time they beat us was October 2003. I had just gotten married at that point. That's a long time.
This season, they're 1-4, they traded Braylon Edwards for a bunch of guys that Eric Mangini likes, and we're 3-2. Last season, we won the Super Bowl. We've won two Super Bowls (seriously, we won Super Bowl XL and XLIII, don't know if I threw those facts out any point) since they last beat us.
Given recent history, I don't think there's any way that they win this game. I picked the Steelers in my Survivor Pool and I am not at all nervous. I think that we win, but I think it's going to be a close game.
I know they suck. I am aware of this fact. I'm aware of the fact that they defeated the opprobrious Bills 6-3 only because they put their closer in with the bases loaded in the eighth inning. I know that starting quarterback Derek Anderson was 2-for-17 with only 23 yards and an interception in their last game. I also know that they played the Bengals tough and the Bengals, whether we like it are not, are leading the division currently, they beat us, and they're 3-0 in the division. The Bengals are a good team, so help me, and the Browns gave them a game.
I would also like to add that the "rivalry" that exists between the Browns and the Steelers is mostly on the side of Cleveland. They hate us. We always win. We've won six Super Bowls and they have never been. That hate is valuable. That hate is palpable. That hate is something that Magini can use to make a game of it on Sunday.
I also think that the defense is going to need to adjust to the loss of Aaron Smith and the re-addition of Troy Polamalu. I think that, ultimately, Smith's loss is going to be our gain, but I think that's in the long term. In the short term, the defense is going to be disoriented -- even more than they've been thus far -- and they're going to give up gaps and make mistakes. In the short term, they're going to expect Troy to come flying in, but, in the short term, he's not going to be well enough and adjusted enough to do that. Everyone needs time when they come back to the office from a vacation to get re-adjusted and football players are no different.
I think that they score on us quite a little bit and possibly Joshua Cribbs scores on a return. But, I think that we're too much better from top to bottom to lose a game to a team that's crazed and pissed off and that's it. They're not anywhere near as talented as we are and that will prove itself out throughout the course of the game.
This game is extremely important to the Cleveland Browns, but it is also important to the Pittsburgh Steelers. They know how important it is to show up for division games. They know how important it is to not host Minnesota next week at .500. They know they can't fall behind the pace in the division.
The Steelers will take care of business on Sunday, but it won't be easy. It won't be as easy as the 14 point line (which is ridiculous, by the way) seems to suggest.
Prediction: Steelers 27, Browns 21.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Steelers vs. Lions Review
Well, I was in Seattle and didn't catch the game because I was taking a tour of Underground Seattle.
It's actually a very cool tourism destination with enough different, fun things to do that pretty much anyone can go there and find something interesting to occupy their time. They're still bitter about that whole Super Bowl XL thing (which the Steelers won, by the way), which isn't cool, but I ran into a lot of very nice people and had a ton of great food.
From what I heard, the Steelers looked great in the first three quarters, then almost choked everything away in the fourth quarter. The hell you say! The more I think about it, the more I think the theories that I have about the Steeler defense are correct.
I would like to take this opportunity to also point out that star defensive lineman and former Pro Bowler Aaron Smith was placed on injured reserve today.
That doesn't help, but it may be helpful to get some youth infused on that line, see what Ziggy Hood can do, or possibly Nick Eason. I think there will be a dropoff, of course, because Aaron Smith is really, really good at what he does. But the silver lining there is that both Hood and Eason are about 15 years younger than Smith, so at least they'll be consistent. They'll be consistently worse than Smith at the beginning of the game, but they'll still have plenty left in the tank in the fourth quarter.
This is not to say that we should hope that all members of the over 30 gang get hurt, it's just to say that Smith getting hurt now and getting put on IR now will suck less than, say, him getting hurt and getting put on IR towards the end of the 2007 season. That was disastrous. This is just highly inconvenient. And, who knows, if Hood goes in and plays great, that could mean that the 2009 draft class was a success. Mendenhall is starting to bail out the 2008 class, Vulva, Gay, and Timmons (sounds like a malpractice firm that only goes after OBGYNs) bailed out the 2007 class, and Hood, Joe Burnett, and Mike Wallace could make the 2009 class not so bad.
Ultimately, the personality of the team is changing. Tomlin has said numerous times that every season is different, every season has its own personality, and everything develops in its own time.
This team is very different from the 2008 team, obviously, but we're not sure what the personality of it is yet. All I know is that we aren't likely to see another 13-9 victory or a 10-6 victory, or a 15-6 loss. We have already allowed 20 or more points in a game three times (three times in a row, actually) and we only did that five times total in 2008. But, we've also scored 28 or more points twice (again, in a row) and we only did that four times all of last season.
The team is changing, the personality is forming, and we should have a better idea of where they are and what they're like by the time the bye week rolls around.
It'll be interesting to see how they deal with a fiesty, but crappy adversary (Cleveland) and a team that has looked great so far but maybe leans on the running game too much and won't be able to count on their quarterback as the season wears on (Minnesota).
After that, we get a frisky Broncos team and a revenge game against the Bengals. The next month or so will determine the course of the season and the personality of the team. I'm looking forward to seeing how they respond and how everything shakes out.
I'm really, really scared that it might be bad, but I'm looking forward to it.
It's actually a very cool tourism destination with enough different, fun things to do that pretty much anyone can go there and find something interesting to occupy their time. They're still bitter about that whole Super Bowl XL thing (which the Steelers won, by the way), which isn't cool, but I ran into a lot of very nice people and had a ton of great food.
From what I heard, the Steelers looked great in the first three quarters, then almost choked everything away in the fourth quarter. The hell you say! The more I think about it, the more I think the theories that I have about the Steeler defense are correct.
I would like to take this opportunity to also point out that star defensive lineman and former Pro Bowler Aaron Smith was placed on injured reserve today.
That doesn't help, but it may be helpful to get some youth infused on that line, see what Ziggy Hood can do, or possibly Nick Eason. I think there will be a dropoff, of course, because Aaron Smith is really, really good at what he does. But the silver lining there is that both Hood and Eason are about 15 years younger than Smith, so at least they'll be consistent. They'll be consistently worse than Smith at the beginning of the game, but they'll still have plenty left in the tank in the fourth quarter.
This is not to say that we should hope that all members of the over 30 gang get hurt, it's just to say that Smith getting hurt now and getting put on IR now will suck less than, say, him getting hurt and getting put on IR towards the end of the 2007 season. That was disastrous. This is just highly inconvenient. And, who knows, if Hood goes in and plays great, that could mean that the 2009 draft class was a success. Mendenhall is starting to bail out the 2008 class, Vulva, Gay, and Timmons (sounds like a malpractice firm that only goes after OBGYNs) bailed out the 2007 class, and Hood, Joe Burnett, and Mike Wallace could make the 2009 class not so bad.
Ultimately, the personality of the team is changing. Tomlin has said numerous times that every season is different, every season has its own personality, and everything develops in its own time.
This team is very different from the 2008 team, obviously, but we're not sure what the personality of it is yet. All I know is that we aren't likely to see another 13-9 victory or a 10-6 victory, or a 15-6 loss. We have already allowed 20 or more points in a game three times (three times in a row, actually) and we only did that five times total in 2008. But, we've also scored 28 or more points twice (again, in a row) and we only did that four times all of last season.
The team is changing, the personality is forming, and we should have a better idea of where they are and what they're like by the time the bye week rolls around.
It'll be interesting to see how they deal with a fiesty, but crappy adversary (Cleveland) and a team that has looked great so far but maybe leans on the running game too much and won't be able to count on their quarterback as the season wears on (Minnesota).
After that, we get a frisky Broncos team and a revenge game against the Bengals. The next month or so will determine the course of the season and the personality of the team. I'm looking forward to seeing how they respond and how everything shakes out.
I'm really, really scared that it might be bad, but I'm looking forward to it.
Wednesday, October 07, 2009
Steelers vs. Lions Preview
Seriously? It's the Lions.
Thus far this century, they're 41-107. That's a .277 winning percentage. That means that, on average, they're 4-12 since 2000. That's worse than the Pirates.
I know they're at home.
I know we're the defending champs and we have a bullseye on our chests.
I know they signed Larry Foote and he knows our defense inside and out.
I also know that Troy should be back for this game.
I also know that the players know they won by ten last week and aren't satisfied (for the most part).
I also know that the Lions have won 11 out of their last 52 games. They went 0-16 last season.
I know we choked away a loss against the Bengals, but this is a less talented team than the one the Bengals have.
Just trust me. We're 10 1/2 point favorites on the road.
I think we cover.
I think we make Matthew Stafford our bitch.
I think we roll.
I think I said this for the Bengals game.
Prediction:
Steelers 34, Lions 13
Thus far this century, they're 41-107. That's a .277 winning percentage. That means that, on average, they're 4-12 since 2000. That's worse than the Pirates.
I know they're at home.
I know we're the defending champs and we have a bullseye on our chests.
I know they signed Larry Foote and he knows our defense inside and out.
I also know that Troy should be back for this game.
I also know that the players know they won by ten last week and aren't satisfied (for the most part).
I also know that the Lions have won 11 out of their last 52 games. They went 0-16 last season.
I know we choked away a loss against the Bengals, but this is a less talented team than the one the Bengals have.
Just trust me. We're 10 1/2 point favorites on the road.
I think we cover.
I think we make Matthew Stafford our bitch.
I think we roll.
I think I said this for the Bengals game.
Prediction:
Steelers 34, Lions 13
Steelers vs. Chargers Review
First of all, I would like to point out that I am now 13-1 overall and 4-0 against the San Diego Chargers. You're welcome.
Second of all, I would like to point out the following: The Steelers were up 28-0 and 35-14 at different points throughout the course of this game, but neither myself nor anyone in the stadium felt completely comfortable that the outcome of the game was secured until Jeff Reed kicked a field goal with 43 seconds remaining.
Sure, the Stefan Logan fumble was fluky play. Sure, if you're a Chargers fan, you feel as though there's no doubt that the play called on the field was accurate and that it was a fumble recovered for a touchdown. Sure, if you're a Steelers fan, you feel supremely violated by the refs. The point is that the play was challenged, the refs took a look at it, and were unable to conclusively overrule the play as called. If it was called down by contact, they probably couldn't have overruled that, either. So it was close.
Sure, the Chargers recovered an onside kick, which almost never happens.
But what we can take away from this Steelers victory are the following points:
Consider:
This brings about two key questions that seek to set the collective minds of Steeler Nation at ease:
We're not going to get a real answer in the next two weeks because we play Detroit, then Cleveland, and both of those teams suck.
Then, we play Minnesota. At home. We will know then. For sures. I have circled that date on my calender and I hope the Steelers offensive line has as well.
For number two, I... I have to say no. I think there are a couple of factors in play here.
Factor Number One is that the average age of the defensive line is death, so they're bound to wear down over the course of the game. Even though we only have three defensive linemen, the key to the success of any 3-4 team is the three guys up front. Our three guys up front are old. They're tired. They have two rings each and there's only so much you can do to motivate a guy given those parameters. Even when someone like Mike Tomlin or Dick LeBeau is feeding them the "one game at a time, one play at a time" rhetoric, it only goes so far.
Are they washed up? Are they not worth it? Of course not. When playing to the best of their abilities, they're still really damn good. I think the first three quarters of each of the last three games proves that. They're just old. They're millionaires. They have two rings. I'd get in their faces and yell at them and slap them around, but they're bigger than me.
Factor Number Two is that the offense is starting to come into its own. It's evolving. It's becoming the focus of the team. After all the great drives and clutch plays of the past 23 games (2008 season plus playoffs plus four games this year), the defense has come to depend on the offense. Previously, in 2007 and 2006, they had no one to depend on but themselves. I think you see this happening a little bit with the hated Ravens as well. For years, the defense couldn't let up, couldn't yield, because they'd be writing checks the offense couldn't cash. Now? They have a unibrowed golden boy and they can afford to let this receiver slip by or that tackle go unmade.
I don't like to mention this, but the hated Ravens have a bunch of young guys on defense. Guys that are hungry. Guys that don't have two rings and millions and millions of dollars in the bank. They'll come back angry and hungry because they have unfinished business ahead of them. Our guys? You can't make that same claim about them.
The Steelers are currently among the worst defenses in terms of points in every fantasy league I'm involved in. They're not getting sacks. They're not getting shutouts or keeping points off the board. They're not forcing turnovers. They're not scoring touchdowns. They're also not available as a free agent.
Maybe that's because I live in Pittsburgh and everyone still has faith that they'll turn it around. Maybe that's because everyone's hoping that everything will turn around once Troy comes back (expected to happen this weekend against Detroit!) Maybe, collectively, we're ignoring Factor One and Factor Two.
I hope I'm wrong. I hope that the factors I've talked about aren't the issue. I hope it's something else, anything else. I hope that, as Tomlin has said, the personality and makeup of a team develops over the course of a season and this is our early wakeup call. I hope I'm totally full of bullshit and I'm just being reactionary.
But, I don't think I am. And that sucks.
Second of all, I would like to point out the following: The Steelers were up 28-0 and 35-14 at different points throughout the course of this game, but neither myself nor anyone in the stadium felt completely comfortable that the outcome of the game was secured until Jeff Reed kicked a field goal with 43 seconds remaining.
Sure, the Stefan Logan fumble was fluky play. Sure, if you're a Chargers fan, you feel as though there's no doubt that the play called on the field was accurate and that it was a fumble recovered for a touchdown. Sure, if you're a Steelers fan, you feel supremely violated by the refs. The point is that the play was challenged, the refs took a look at it, and were unable to conclusively overrule the play as called. If it was called down by contact, they probably couldn't have overruled that, either. So it was close.
Sure, the Chargers recovered an onside kick, which almost never happens.
But what we can take away from this Steelers victory are the following points:
- We won by ten points in a game that we dominated and everyone was upset about it.
- When Jacob Hester scored on the aforementioned fumble recovery, there was a loud popping sound that could be heard in Heinz Field and that popping sound was the sphincters of everyone in the stadium puckering.
Consider:
- We had 510 yards of total offense. I had to check the box score, I'm not going to lie. I have to admit, though, that I thought the number was higher. At the end of the third quarter, I seriously thought we had 500 yards of total offense.
- Through the first three quarters, we held the vaunted Chargers offense to seven points. Seven.
- We had 177 yards rushing. Of those 177 yards, 165 came from a guy that a number of people had labeled as a bust and that Mike Tomlin had benched the week before.
- Given all that, we felt the need to run a trick play on first and goal from the six to score a touchdown.
This brings about two key questions that seek to set the collective minds of Steeler Nation at ease:
- Is the running game back?
- Can we trust the defense?
We're not going to get a real answer in the next two weeks because we play Detroit, then Cleveland, and both of those teams suck.
Then, we play Minnesota. At home. We will know then. For sures. I have circled that date on my calender and I hope the Steelers offensive line has as well.
For number two, I... I have to say no. I think there are a couple of factors in play here.
Factor Number One is that the average age of the defensive line is death, so they're bound to wear down over the course of the game. Even though we only have three defensive linemen, the key to the success of any 3-4 team is the three guys up front. Our three guys up front are old. They're tired. They have two rings each and there's only so much you can do to motivate a guy given those parameters. Even when someone like Mike Tomlin or Dick LeBeau is feeding them the "one game at a time, one play at a time" rhetoric, it only goes so far.
Are they washed up? Are they not worth it? Of course not. When playing to the best of their abilities, they're still really damn good. I think the first three quarters of each of the last three games proves that. They're just old. They're millionaires. They have two rings. I'd get in their faces and yell at them and slap them around, but they're bigger than me.
Factor Number Two is that the offense is starting to come into its own. It's evolving. It's becoming the focus of the team. After all the great drives and clutch plays of the past 23 games (2008 season plus playoffs plus four games this year), the defense has come to depend on the offense. Previously, in 2007 and 2006, they had no one to depend on but themselves. I think you see this happening a little bit with the hated Ravens as well. For years, the defense couldn't let up, couldn't yield, because they'd be writing checks the offense couldn't cash. Now? They have a unibrowed golden boy and they can afford to let this receiver slip by or that tackle go unmade.
I don't like to mention this, but the hated Ravens have a bunch of young guys on defense. Guys that are hungry. Guys that don't have two rings and millions and millions of dollars in the bank. They'll come back angry and hungry because they have unfinished business ahead of them. Our guys? You can't make that same claim about them.
The Steelers are currently among the worst defenses in terms of points in every fantasy league I'm involved in. They're not getting sacks. They're not getting shutouts or keeping points off the board. They're not forcing turnovers. They're not scoring touchdowns. They're also not available as a free agent.
Maybe that's because I live in Pittsburgh and everyone still has faith that they'll turn it around. Maybe that's because everyone's hoping that everything will turn around once Troy comes back (expected to happen this weekend against Detroit!) Maybe, collectively, we're ignoring Factor One and Factor Two.
I hope I'm wrong. I hope that the factors I've talked about aren't the issue. I hope it's something else, anything else. I hope that, as Tomlin has said, the personality and makeup of a team develops over the course of a season and this is our early wakeup call. I hope I'm totally full of bullshit and I'm just being reactionary.
But, I don't think I am. And that sucks.
Thursday, October 01, 2009
Steelers vs. Chargers Preview
First some thoughts on the implosion against the Bengals:
I haven't lost faith in the magic of last year, but I have also come to terms with how special last year's run was. We have the same problems this year that we had for most of last year -- especially down the stretch -- but we were able to overcome those problems on shear balls and willpower. I have not seen the balls and willpower thus far this year, with the possible exception of the fourth quarter and overtime against the Titans. And that could've been muscle memory, not balls and willpower.
Philip Rivers is averaging 330 yards a game. He has more yards than Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady. And Kurt Warner. And really anyone else you can name, because he leads the league in yards per game.
Darren Sproles is a scary player. He doesn't scare me as a ball carrier, but he scares the hell out of me as a receiver. We did, after all, give up a super long passing touchdown to him in the Divisional Playoff round last year, regardless of whether or not the outcome was already decided.
Their defense is frisky, even if I am not starting them in fantasy this week (starting Washington against the hapless Bucs instead). Without Jamal Williams plugging up the middle (he always kills us) we may be able to run, but I wouldn't count on it.
They have a swagger. They expect to win this game. They're ready for us. This is different than an upstart Bengals team playing over their heads. This is a talented team that doesn't have a shred of doubt in their minds that they will be victorious. And that's dangerous.
On the other hand, they have basically the same players and the same coach as 2008. And we pretty much ruled them in two games in 2008. We have basically the same players and the same coach.
It's prime time. It's at home. Tomlin has been beating these guys up on the practice field and in the media. Hopefully, they're angry. Possibly, they're too beat down. I really don't know.
It could be that I was deflated after reading this on ESPN.com: http://espn.go.com/blog/afcnorth/post/_/id/3715/trouble-in-steel-town.
There's a lot of issues addressed there. A lot of problems. A lot of things that need to be fixed. Can we fix them? I think we can, but I don't know that we can fix them all in one week. And that's pretty much what we need to do.
If we can fix them, at least for this game, the schedule gets easier. We don't have to play the hated Ravens until November, which is a blessing (and a curse). And, actually, if we were playing the hated Ravens on Sunday night, I'd feel comfortable guaranteeing a victory. Against the Chargers? This Sunday night? I don't.
HOWEVER, I will say this: Weidman and I are going to the game. I am 12-1 and his record is comparable. I am 3-0 against the Chargers, including last year's playoff win. And that's a 3-0 record that spans 15 years and pre-dates Heinz Field.
Still... my predictions have been dead freakin' wrong thus far.
Prediction: Chargers 23, Steelers 13
- Well, so much for us dominating, eh? Who's the idiot that said that would happen? Oh, right.
- The running game is not back. We still can't gain four yards on third and three. Still can't gain a foot and a half on fourth and goal. It was the Bengals. I am managing my expectations and not expecting Fast Willie to bust out for 100 yards against the Chargers, or possibly the rest of the season, except for maybe against the Browns or Lions.
- That last drive by the Bengals was a master stroke. Sure, we shouldn't have coughed up a conversion on fourth and ten to some random white dude, but they made sure by how they managed the clock that they would either win or lose on that drive. Nicely done by them. More than I have come to expect from Marvin Lewis.
- Limas Sweed and Rashard Mendenhall should not have been called out in the media. Tomlin is using that as a weapon, when he should go all Santonio Holmes on them. Worked out well last season.
- Speaking of Holmes, he's fighting the ball. That's no good.
- Speaking of the defense, they miss Troy. That much is obvious. However, they have no excuse for not forcing any turnovers the last two games. This needs to change. Stat.
- They also need to stop being clutch. They need to bring back the "someone is going to make a play" mentality. I had that mentality as the Bengals were driving for the win. I just assumed we'd stop them. We didn't. I assumed we'd stop Cutler and the Bears in Week 2. We didn't. Therefore, I no longer have that mentality. I hope that's not the case with the guys that actually are supposed to play defense. My mentality matters not. I'm just some asshole with a blog. They need to get their swagger back, because it's currently gone.
- I seriously believe it's time to pick up Mike Wallace if you play in a deep fantasy league with a lot of roster spots or a lot of teams. He and Hines Ward (and possibly Heath) are the only guys playing out there right now.
I haven't lost faith in the magic of last year, but I have also come to terms with how special last year's run was. We have the same problems this year that we had for most of last year -- especially down the stretch -- but we were able to overcome those problems on shear balls and willpower. I have not seen the balls and willpower thus far this year, with the possible exception of the fourth quarter and overtime against the Titans. And that could've been muscle memory, not balls and willpower.
Philip Rivers is averaging 330 yards a game. He has more yards than Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady. And Kurt Warner. And really anyone else you can name, because he leads the league in yards per game.
Darren Sproles is a scary player. He doesn't scare me as a ball carrier, but he scares the hell out of me as a receiver. We did, after all, give up a super long passing touchdown to him in the Divisional Playoff round last year, regardless of whether or not the outcome was already decided.
Their defense is frisky, even if I am not starting them in fantasy this week (starting Washington against the hapless Bucs instead). Without Jamal Williams plugging up the middle (he always kills us) we may be able to run, but I wouldn't count on it.
They have a swagger. They expect to win this game. They're ready for us. This is different than an upstart Bengals team playing over their heads. This is a talented team that doesn't have a shred of doubt in their minds that they will be victorious. And that's dangerous.
On the other hand, they have basically the same players and the same coach as 2008. And we pretty much ruled them in two games in 2008. We have basically the same players and the same coach.
It's prime time. It's at home. Tomlin has been beating these guys up on the practice field and in the media. Hopefully, they're angry. Possibly, they're too beat down. I really don't know.
It could be that I was deflated after reading this on ESPN.com: http://espn.go.com/blog/afcnorth/post/_/id/3715/trouble-in-steel-town.
There's a lot of issues addressed there. A lot of problems. A lot of things that need to be fixed. Can we fix them? I think we can, but I don't know that we can fix them all in one week. And that's pretty much what we need to do.
If we can fix them, at least for this game, the schedule gets easier. We don't have to play the hated Ravens until November, which is a blessing (and a curse). And, actually, if we were playing the hated Ravens on Sunday night, I'd feel comfortable guaranteeing a victory. Against the Chargers? This Sunday night? I don't.
HOWEVER, I will say this: Weidman and I are going to the game. I am 12-1 and his record is comparable. I am 3-0 against the Chargers, including last year's playoff win. And that's a 3-0 record that spans 15 years and pre-dates Heinz Field.
Still... my predictions have been dead freakin' wrong thus far.
Prediction: Chargers 23, Steelers 13
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