AFC Playoff Preview

A few housecleaning items before I get to my playoff picks for the AFC...

1. There are a lot of people calling for Bruce Arians to be fired. Mike Tomlin says they're not going to have any knee-jerk reactions. I hope not. Listen, the offense is not the issue. How can you fire a guy when we had a 4,000 yard passer, two 1,000 yard receivers, a killer deep threat in Mike Wallace, and a 1,000 yard rusher? And why would we pay Roethlisberger $100 million only to have him hand off. He made some bad decisions, yes. But, if you look at the season as a whole, the defense choked and the coverage units were terrible. And that, among other reasons, is why the Steelers finished 9-7 and blew games to the Chiefs, Browns, and Raiders. We just weren't prepared for the inspired performance that Cleveland gave us and we adjusted badly. So, pin that one on the offense. How many games did the defense give up? I am NOT suggesting to fire Dick LeBeau. Even putting the words "fire" and "LeBeau" in the same sentence make me feel weird. I am suggesting something else...
2. Bobby April just got fired as the special teams coach of the Bills. You may remember April as the greatest special teams coach this side of... Marv Levy? He's great. He used to be the special teams coach of the Steelers and we let him go. We need him back. Stat.
3. Tom Brady did not deserve to win Comeback Player of the Year. I understand that he came back from a catastrophic knee injury, but his job was never up for grabs. All he had to do was have surgery, get protected by a great offensive line that never gets called for holding, and throw the ball to Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Where's the feel-good story there? Also, the Patriots were 11-5 in 2008 without him and 10-6 in 2009 with him. So... where's the benefit of having Tom Terrific behind center? Cadillac Williams was almost out of football last year, had two big knee injuries, lost his starting job to Derrick Ward, claimed it back, re-injured his knee so he had a comeback in a comeback year, and ended up emerging as the starter, leading the team in rushing with 829 yards, and he did it all while playing for Tampa, which was one of the worst teams in the league with a rookie quarterback and a crappy offensive line. So, he plays for a bad team. That should be held against him?

Onto the predictions.

Jets at Bengals:

The Jets destroyed the Bengals 37-0 in the last game of the regular season, but I don't think they have a repeat performance in them. Primarily, I don't trust Mark Sanchez. The guy is a rookie and he is not a good player. He has shown some chops at certain points, but he has been mostly dreadful.

The Bengals have a great defense and they run the ball well. The Jets have a great defense and they run the ball well. Neither team scores a lot of points, neither team lets up a lot of points. If you like punts, this is the game for you. I think it is going to be boring and it is going to come down to the fourth quarter.

That means it comes down to quarterback play. I don't trust Sanchez. I do trust Carson Palmer. The Bengals were clutch in the last quarter for most of this season. Marvin Lewis and this team need to find their mojo back and I think they do it at home in the playoffs. Sanchez won't be ready, the Bengals will be ready. I am tired of doubting Cincinnati and picking against them, so I won't do it anymore. When they advance to the next round, all bets are off. For the Wild Card round, they have enough to beat New York and their rookie quarterback.

Hated Ravens at Patriots:

Welker is out, the hated Ravens were better than their record, and they almost beat New England in Foxboro earlier this season. It's damn-near impossible to bet against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick at home in the postseason, but I'm going to do it.

I think Joe Flacco and his unibrow are ready to win this game. They advanced to the AFC Championship game last season as the sixth seed. They're a confident team and, as much as I hate them and their defense of bastards, I respect them. I think they shut down Randy Moss and force Julian Edelman, Kevin Faulk, and Fred Taylor to beat them.

I think they make just enough plays to win and they advance to Indianapolis. There's always an upset in the first round of the playoffs and I think this is it because I don't trust Sanchez to get it done against the Bengals. But I do trust Flacco and John Harbaugh to get it done against the fading dynasty of the Patriots.

Bengals at Chargers:

I hate brackets that are all chalk, but I can't see a team beating either San Diego or Indianapolis at home in the Divisional Round (so that kinda makes reading my next prediction moot). Even if New England beats Baltimore, they're not beating the Chargers. The Chargers have the Patriots number and they match up too well against New England.

They have an explosive offense and they do well enough on defense that no one notices that their defense isn't that great. Philip Rivers has been destroying defenses all season and you can never count this team out because they can put up points in a hurry. Remember, they scored 21 points on the Steelers and turned a 28-0 laugher into a sphincter-puckering 38-28 game. They have weapons on top of weapons. Darren Sproles backs up the still relevant LaDanian Tomlinson.

Norv Turner is an excellent play caller and he has enough talent to advance. This time of year, it comes down to talent. And the Chargers have more of that than anyone else.

Hated Ravens at Colts:

You read the previous entry, right?

Well, Peyton Manning has had Baltimore's number since the Mayflower trucks, so he's not losing to them. And they're not doing a one-and-done in the playoffs this year. Especially against a sixth seed. Even if they play the Jets or Bengals, those teams don't have the horses to keep up with the Colts (get it?), so Indy wins in that eventuality. That sets up an AFC Championship game between the one seed and the two seed.

Chargers at Colts:

The Chargers, more than any team owns any other team, own the Indianapolis Colts. They have too many weapons. Their corners match up well against the Indianapolis receivers. Norv Turner doesn't have to worry about clock management, he just needs to worry about calling plays.

They went into Indy and beat the second-seeded Colts in 2007 even though they had Billy Joe Tolliver at quarterback and Sproles at tailback. They were 8-8 in 2008 and beat Indianapolis in overtime even though the Colts were 12-4 and had won nine straight.

Only one thing scares me about picking the Chargers over the Colts. And that's Peyton Manning. He has the Eye of the Tiger. Indianapolis has won seven games this season when trailing in the fourth quarter. He is automatic in the two minute offense. He made Bill Belichick go for it on fourth and two from his own 29 because Belichick knew that he couldn't stop Manning on the last possession and he wanted to play keep-away.

BUT, the reason the Chargers have positively owned the Colts is because Turner is too dumb/confident/talented a play caller to let Manning phase him. If you don't let Manning in your head, he can't get in.

At least that's what I keep telling myself. Hello? Peyton? No. I already cut that meat.

AFC Champion:
San Diego Chargers

AFC South Predictions

Here they are, from last to first:

Houston Texans:

They're not going to finish 2-14 again. I promise. Gary Kubiak will get inside David Carr's head and tell him that it's okay to stand in the pocket. Those other kids that hit you before, they're not coming back. Well, maybe Dwight Freeney, but that's it. Go through your progressions. Read and re-act. Relax. Breathe. That's it. No, no, that's just a tackling dummy! No! David? David! Come back to me...

Their offensive line still blows. But, Kubiak will roll the pocket. He'll max protect. He'll throw 9 guys back to block and send Andre Johnson out to get open. Eric Moulds will help. So will Reggie Bush. Oh wait, they drafted Mario Williams. Well, I'm sure he'll be... good.

The important thing for Texans fans to remember is that the organization is finally, FINALLY molding its schemes around its players. Not vice versa. I love Dom Capers. I have a man-crush on Dom Capers and his fabulous, fabulous zone-blitz package. But, it's not for Houston. Never was, never will be. Gone is the 3-4 defense and "go for broke, oh wait our line sucks, throw the screen!" passing. They're doing it right now. Breathe, Texans fans. It was all a bad front office...

Jacksonville Jaguars:

I'm not doing this just to shake things up and make people scream, "WHAT?!?!?!" Maybe partly.

I'm not sold on Jack DelRio against a tough schedule. I don't trust this defense any farther than Marcus Stroud and John Henderson can throw them. I don't like their back 7. Who will be their ends? Who are their receivers now that Jimmy Smith is gone? And, have you ever seen Byron Leftwich wind up and throw? I could eat a sandwich during his delivery. That's going to end up biting him in the ass some day. And his linemen will have to carry him to safety.

And I don't trust Fred Taylor's groin. Or Greg Jones. Or the fact that they only won 12 games last year because of a cupcake schedule. As much as I hate him and his mullet, I trust Jeff Fisher more.

Tennessee Titans:

They're out of salary cap hell. They have Jeff Fisher. And his lousy, stinky, flowing mullet. He will motivate them. The defense will be better than advertised. They'll win two games because of special teams. And Vince Young will win at least 5 games for this team. Organizations like this don't stay bad like this for long. It's a gut feeling.

And that's pretty much all I'm basing this pick on. So there.

Indianapolis Colts:

Peyton Manning. Marvin Harrison. Reggie Wayne. Elusive tailback that takes advantage of dime and nickel defenses. Improved, fast, young, attacking defense. Blah.

The Colts will win this division. This much is certain. However, they're not going to do anything in the post-season (i.e. make it to or win the Super Bowl) unless Tony Dungy learned something in his playoff loss to the Steelers.

When the Colts are teeing off on overmatched defenses, they look like the best team in football. When a team actually gameplans to stop Peyton Manning, they're screwed. I thought they had learned this in the two playoff losses to the Patriots. I thought a light went on early last season when the passing game was struggling and they had to run the ball. I was wrong.

Until such time as the Colts realize that the way to beat someone that's waiting for you to do something is to do the exact opposite, they will lose when it counts. They can score all the points they want to against creampuff teams, they won't beat a good team that's ready for them until they commit to the run. AND UNTIL TONY DUNGY STOPS LETTING MANNING RUN THE TEAM!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sit back and think for a moment. It's late in the game. In the playoffs. It's fourth down. Cowher calls the punt team in. Ben frantically gestures them off the field and calls his own play. Imagine now the look on Cowher's face. Is he holding a chainsaw? He is when I picture him.

Dungy needs to get to the playoffs, take the air out of the ball, and prove that he can win against the stiffest competition in the world by smacking the opponent in the face and giving them the, "What? What? WHAT?!?!" look. By the time the other team adjusts, they'll be way ahead. Then Peyton can call all the plays he wants.