Pens-Canes Game 1 Review

After the game last night, I went upstairs to see what the wife was up to. She asked me if the Pens won, I said yes, and then she asked me if I still thought they'd win in five. I said yes, but how quickly I said yes got me thinking... did I just say yes because that was my defensive reaction? That I didn't want to be wrong on my prediction (at least so quickly), so I immediately backed myself up?

Well, upon further review, I still think they win in five.

We had a two goal lead for most of the game. Their power play is dreadful (although their penalty is kill is as good as advertised, even if we got one home). Even though they cut the lead to one goal and came awful damn close to tying things up, the goal that they got was with a 6-4 advantage in the last minute and a half of the third period of a playoff hockey game. With stakes that high and the odds stacked so thoroughly in their favor, it was almost a sure thing that they score -- although we did fail to clear the puck three times before they got their goal.

Basically, I'm saying that I still don't fear their offense, I still trust Fleury, they're not as dangerous as the Capitals, and I think we can get to Cam Ward. For those reasons, I still feel confident about my prediction. Not as confident as I felt going into the first intermission with a 2-0 lead, but confident.

A few other things:

1. As if special teams weren't already enough of a non-factor, it looks like the refs have pretty much put their whistles in their pockets and will let the players decide the games. I was very nervous during the first ten minutes of the game, seeing as how they called three penalties during that span, but they only called three the rest of the game. Actually, the refs calling the games loosely hurts the Penguins, since the Canes power play sucks and ours is coming on, but it helps the games, helps the sport, and, ultimately, I feel we can win regardless of how the games are called. As long as the penalties aren't too flagrant.
2. Speaking of flagrant penalties, I was listening to the local broadcast (with the mighty Mike Lange) when Ovechkin took out Gonchar with that highly questionable "knee check." Lange was livid and thought that Ovechkin should've gotten a five minute major, faced a possible fine and suspension, and be immediately checked into Allegheny Penitentiary, where the boys there would show him a new definition of "five hole." No call was made, however, so that only fueled Lange's fire. I was listening to the Versus guys last night (the one dude sounds like Booger from Revenge of the Nerds) and when Matt Cooke knee-checked Erik Cole, they didn't really say anything. To me, it looked like the same play. Are they just not calling that? Was that a make-up non-call for the non-call on Ovechkin? Either way, that sets a dangerous precident. They should call that, lest either team -- or any team left in the playoffs, for that matter -- makes knee checking a part of their strategy.
3. It's true that we won, in large part, because Fleury made some absolutely ridiculous saves. That is obviously something that is not sustainable. But, Cam Ward made about an equal number of equally ridiculous saves, so I think it will come down to who flinches first. Guess who flinched first in the Capitals series? In the Flyers series? Once again, still confident in my Pens in Five prediction.
4. I still can't believe we have to wait until Thursday for the next game. Everyone's already in Pittsburgh. What are we waiting for? People to lose interest?
5. I had never heard anyone announce Phillippe Boucher's name before. I had assumed that he would've changed the pronounciation to "booch-er" instead of "boo-chay" in order to keep idiots like me from calling him "Bobby" or "Waterboy." Nope. Should've seen it coming, though. He's French-Canadian.
   

Penguins-Hurricanes Preview

I said that the Penguins would beat the Flyers in six and they did.

I said that the Penguins would beat the Capitals in seven and they did. However, I grossly underestimated the effect that a seven game series would have on me. So, let's not have another game seven, okay?

Now, I'm here to give you the straight dope (and a prediction) on the Pens-Canes series.

I gotta be honest, the only -- and when I say only, I mean ONLY -- thing that scares me about the Canes is that they don't scare me. Historically, that has been a good sign. But that doesn't mean that some unseen force could destroy my prognostication abilities.

Consider...

1. The best player the Canes have is Eric Staal. He's not as good as Sidney Crosby. He's not as good as Evgeni Malkin. I'm not even convinced he's as good as Jordan Staal. Given that the third best player for the Penguins might be better than the best player for the Hurricanes, I'd have to say that swings the series decidedly in favor of the Penguins. There are only five guys that are allowed to be on the ice at a time, so if you hold a 3-1 advantage in talent -- in a sport where individual talent is a key factor -- that's a big advantage, right?
2. The penalty killing for the Penguins hasn't exactly been great. But, the Canes have converted on only five of 48 power play opportunities. For those of you keeping track at home, that sucks.
3. However, the Canes have also killed 49 out of 54 penalties, which is quite good. It's amazing, actually.
4. BUT, something's gotta give. And, the fact that the Penguins power play has been improving the past few games, with them converting four of their last eight, the pendulum swings back to the Pens.
5. The big things that the Canes have working in their favor are goaltending and defense. Well, we already broke down a great goaltender, so breaking down another one should only be a matter of time, right? And, really, how good can their defensemen be? I know that I am welcoming an evil, evil storm of karma, but I'm really curious. Can they stop all three of our lines with how well they're playing? I really doubt it.
6. So... you're saying that this series breaks down to Marc-Andre Fleury versus Cam Ward? Who would you take in that situation? Yes. I'd take Fleury, too.
7. "Cardiac" teams that keep hanging on, keep hanging on, keep hanging, then end up winning have a ceiling. They've already been in two seven game series and hung on to win both of them. Think they've reached their ceiling? I do.
8. Usually, talent wins out in a playoff series. The Penguins have far, far more talent.
9. I know that the Canes finished with 97 points, which was only two points -- or one win or two overtime losses -- short of the Penguins total of 99 points. But I really feel as though Dan Byslma has this team playing well, playing together, and focused on scoring goals, as evidenced by the upswing in shots on goal since he became coach, but particularly since the playoffs have started. With all the talent we have, it's really a numbers game: The more shots we put on net, the more we will score.
10. But, the Canes did eliminate the #1 seed in the Boston Bruins. I have to say, though, that the Bruins did not scare me. If we drew Boston, I would have predicted Penguins in six.
    

I have to say that I am supremely confident of a Penguins victory in this series. They can't hang with our talent. Our offense trumps their defense. Our power play trumps their penalty kill. Our goaltender trumps their goaltender.

I really just don't see how this plays out where the Penguins lose and don't advance to the Stanley Cup Final (dear God, please don't let it be against the Detroit Red Wings). I just don't see it.

As a matter of fact... I'm so supremely confident, that I will buy (and wear) a Joe Flacco jersey for all Steeler games come football season. This confidence should buoy the fans out there. But, the fact that I'm not willing to purchase (and wear) a Ray Lewis jersey for all Steeler games come football season should foretell the shadow of doubt; the grey lining in my cloud of silver.

(Editor's Note: The Flacco Bet only holds true if the Pens lose the series, not if they fail to win in the predicted number of games. Also, if anyone, that means anyone, wonders aloud why I am wearing a Flacco jersey, I am allowed to scream, "It was a bet!" The purchase of a Flacco jersey will not represent, in any way, shape, or form, an endorsement of the Hated Ravens, or their subsidiaries.)

Penguins in Five.