Penguins-Senators Preview

Here's the thing about this series (and the next series, if the Pens win this series): It's going to take a big time effort from the Senators for them to win.  Or, the Pens are going to need to implode as badly as they imploded against the Islanders for 2.5 games, but for the entire series.

Honestly, that's not saying that Ottawa (or Boston or the Rangers) are any better or worse than the Islanders.  It's saying that the three possible remaining opponents for the Pens don't scare me.  The Islanders scared me to a degree in that they were young and unpredictable.  They have a bunch of great skaters and very skilled players.  They're just rough around the edges, couldn't quite grasp the moment, and weren't as deep as the Penguins.

And, really, when you stack everything up, the Pens played a solid series.  They had a +8 goal differential, went 7 for 21 on the power play, killed 18 out of 20 penalties, and have three of the top five scorers in the playoffs. 

Yes, I know they went to overtime twice, but they won both of those games.  Yes, I know Fleury looked lost and helpless for a long stretch there, but they put in Vokoun and he won his two starts.  I know they were outshot and outhustled for about half of the series, but they still scored eight more goals than their opponents and they still recorded two shutouts.

They didn't win with authority.  They should've crushed and swept the 8 seed and asked who was the next to be slaughtered.  But... they still won and they still won pretty convincingly.

I also know that the Senators smoked the Canadiens in five games, winning two of those games by a convincing 6-1 margin.  The thing you have to keep in mind there is that Montreal kinda sucks.  They limped into the series, were playing their worst hockey at the end of the season, weren't getting much in the way of defense or goaltending, and couldn't muster enough offense to offset that.  If Montreal made it past Ottawa, they weren't making it past their next opponent.

Ottawa's strengths lined up perfectly against Montreal's weaknesses.  The same could be said about the Islanders strengths and the Pens weaknesses.  The difference is that the Pens found a way to win -- and fairly convincingly -- and Canadiens got destroyed.

The Senators aren't particularly flashy or skilled or fast or deep.  They're not dangerous.  They're not young.  They're not exciting.  They're a methodical, disciplined team that converted every mistake Montreal made and took advantage of every opportunity Montreal afforded them.

When the Pens are playing their preferred brand of hockey, they don't make many mistakes and they don't afford their opponents many opportunities.  They prefer to line up their best guys against your best guys and force you to beat them.  Since they're so skilled and so deep, they usually come out on top.  They were skilled enough and deep enough and had enough mental fortitude to beat the Islanders in six, even when they weren't playing their preferred brand of hockey.

I think they can beat Ottawa even if they don't play their preferred brand of hockey.  I think they can also beat the Rangers or Bruins.  (I don't think they would be able to beat any of the four teams left in the West, but let's not get too far ahead of ourselves).

Just for the Ottawa series, I think they keep things tight, keep things boring, and should be able to win if they don't completely implode.  The Senators just aren't explosive enough to make the Pens pay consistently enough for it to matter. 

I think the Pens can gut out another ugly series and move on.  If they actually start to put everything together in this series and play close to perfect, then it'll be over in five.

Prediction: Pens in Six.

Penguins Down the Stretch

My brother e-mailed me earlier this week and basically asked: "Since the Pens are locked into the 4/5 match-up and so are the Lightning, how do you think we match up against Tampa?"

First of all, we'll find out how the Pens stack up vs. the Lightning next Thursday, March 31st.  Secondly, I don't think they're necessarily "locked in" to a particular seed.  They have a 16 point lead on the #9 seed with eight games to play, which means they have all but clinched a postseason bid.   They have a five point lead on fifth-seeded Tampa and a date with the Lightning in a little under a week, so they can create some separation there.

The interesting thing here is the fact that they're only four point behind Philly and the Flyers only have one game in hand.  They beat the Flyers last night on the road and have another chance to gain at least one point on Philly next Tuesday.

The Pens face only two playoff teams in their next eight games: Philly and Tampa.  The other six games are all non-playoff teams, including two against Florida (14th-best team in the conference) and two games against Da Devil.  Philly faces four playoff teams (Boston, Buffalo, Pens, Rangers), but they also have Ottawa on the schedule and two games against the Islanders.

If I had to bet on it, I would say the Pens are going to be the fourth seed, but I really do think they have a solid chance at winning the division.  Winning the division would not guarantee them the #1 seed, though, since the Capitals are playing great hockey right now and are only two points behind Philly in the race for the top seed.  Washington has clinched a playoff spot, though, and they've started resting Ovechkin to get him healthy for the playoffs, so it's very possible that whoever wins the Atlantic Division is the top-seeded team.

This has been a strange season from start to finish and I can't help but think the Pens have another surprise in store.

They started out kinda slow, had a players only meeting after only 11 games, got super red hot and looked unstoppable, then Staal comes back, they lose the Winter Classic in an uneven game against a team that was on the ropes and roared back for the season (Capitals have clinched a playoff spot and should be the #2 seed).  Then everyone gets hurt.  The team slumps with Baby Penguins masquerading as real Penguins.  Then everyone starts to come together, Shero makes a couple of fantastic trades, guys start coming back, suddenly it looks like they might make a deep Cup run without Crosby.  

All of that was just leading up to this past week.  Then the Rangers game happened on Sunday, which was a humiliating and demoralizing loss.  Cooke get suspended.  Then we come out firing against the Red Wings (they’re still a really good team).  Sure, they needed a shootout to win, but it’s just been a rollercoaster, with last night's shoot out win on the road over the division-leading Flyers serving as the cherry on top.  Or the loop in the Thunderbolt.  Or whatever completes that analogy.

I think Bylsma might have another rabbit up his sleeve.  With the closing schedule and the fact that they’re only four points back of the Flyers, with a game left against them at Console… I dunno.  Stranger things have happened.  A lot.  Mostly this season.  To the Penguins.

It's too early to say that this team is "locked in" for anything.  I think we need to follow the sage advice of John Connor, who said, "There is no fate but what we make for ourselves."  Perhaps those inspirational words will bolster the Pens to a division title in the next two weeks.

Pens-Canes Game 1 Review

After the game last night, I went upstairs to see what the wife was up to. She asked me if the Pens won, I said yes, and then she asked me if I still thought they'd win in five. I said yes, but how quickly I said yes got me thinking... did I just say yes because that was my defensive reaction? That I didn't want to be wrong on my prediction (at least so quickly), so I immediately backed myself up?

Well, upon further review, I still think they win in five.

We had a two goal lead for most of the game. Their power play is dreadful (although their penalty is kill is as good as advertised, even if we got one home). Even though they cut the lead to one goal and came awful damn close to tying things up, the goal that they got was with a 6-4 advantage in the last minute and a half of the third period of a playoff hockey game. With stakes that high and the odds stacked so thoroughly in their favor, it was almost a sure thing that they score -- although we did fail to clear the puck three times before they got their goal.

Basically, I'm saying that I still don't fear their offense, I still trust Fleury, they're not as dangerous as the Capitals, and I think we can get to Cam Ward. For those reasons, I still feel confident about my prediction. Not as confident as I felt going into the first intermission with a 2-0 lead, but confident.

A few other things:

1. As if special teams weren't already enough of a non-factor, it looks like the refs have pretty much put their whistles in their pockets and will let the players decide the games. I was very nervous during the first ten minutes of the game, seeing as how they called three penalties during that span, but they only called three the rest of the game. Actually, the refs calling the games loosely hurts the Penguins, since the Canes power play sucks and ours is coming on, but it helps the games, helps the sport, and, ultimately, I feel we can win regardless of how the games are called. As long as the penalties aren't too flagrant.
2. Speaking of flagrant penalties, I was listening to the local broadcast (with the mighty Mike Lange) when Ovechkin took out Gonchar with that highly questionable "knee check." Lange was livid and thought that Ovechkin should've gotten a five minute major, faced a possible fine and suspension, and be immediately checked into Allegheny Penitentiary, where the boys there would show him a new definition of "five hole." No call was made, however, so that only fueled Lange's fire. I was listening to the Versus guys last night (the one dude sounds like Booger from Revenge of the Nerds) and when Matt Cooke knee-checked Erik Cole, they didn't really say anything. To me, it looked like the same play. Are they just not calling that? Was that a make-up non-call for the non-call on Ovechkin? Either way, that sets a dangerous precident. They should call that, lest either team -- or any team left in the playoffs, for that matter -- makes knee checking a part of their strategy.
3. It's true that we won, in large part, because Fleury made some absolutely ridiculous saves. That is obviously something that is not sustainable. But, Cam Ward made about an equal number of equally ridiculous saves, so I think it will come down to who flinches first. Guess who flinched first in the Capitals series? In the Flyers series? Once again, still confident in my Pens in Five prediction.
4. I still can't believe we have to wait until Thursday for the next game. Everyone's already in Pittsburgh. What are we waiting for? People to lose interest?
5. I had never heard anyone announce Phillippe Boucher's name before. I had assumed that he would've changed the pronounciation to "booch-er" instead of "boo-chay" in order to keep idiots like me from calling him "Bobby" or "Waterboy." Nope. Should've seen it coming, though. He's French-Canadian.
   

Penguins-Hurricanes Preview

I said that the Penguins would beat the Flyers in six and they did.

I said that the Penguins would beat the Capitals in seven and they did. However, I grossly underestimated the effect that a seven game series would have on me. So, let's not have another game seven, okay?

Now, I'm here to give you the straight dope (and a prediction) on the Pens-Canes series.

I gotta be honest, the only -- and when I say only, I mean ONLY -- thing that scares me about the Canes is that they don't scare me. Historically, that has been a good sign. But that doesn't mean that some unseen force could destroy my prognostication abilities.

Consider...

1. The best player the Canes have is Eric Staal. He's not as good as Sidney Crosby. He's not as good as Evgeni Malkin. I'm not even convinced he's as good as Jordan Staal. Given that the third best player for the Penguins might be better than the best player for the Hurricanes, I'd have to say that swings the series decidedly in favor of the Penguins. There are only five guys that are allowed to be on the ice at a time, so if you hold a 3-1 advantage in talent -- in a sport where individual talent is a key factor -- that's a big advantage, right?
2. The penalty killing for the Penguins hasn't exactly been great. But, the Canes have converted on only five of 48 power play opportunities. For those of you keeping track at home, that sucks.
3. However, the Canes have also killed 49 out of 54 penalties, which is quite good. It's amazing, actually.
4. BUT, something's gotta give. And, the fact that the Penguins power play has been improving the past few games, with them converting four of their last eight, the pendulum swings back to the Pens.
5. The big things that the Canes have working in their favor are goaltending and defense. Well, we already broke down a great goaltender, so breaking down another one should only be a matter of time, right? And, really, how good can their defensemen be? I know that I am welcoming an evil, evil storm of karma, but I'm really curious. Can they stop all three of our lines with how well they're playing? I really doubt it.
6. So... you're saying that this series breaks down to Marc-Andre Fleury versus Cam Ward? Who would you take in that situation? Yes. I'd take Fleury, too.
7. "Cardiac" teams that keep hanging on, keep hanging on, keep hanging, then end up winning have a ceiling. They've already been in two seven game series and hung on to win both of them. Think they've reached their ceiling? I do.
8. Usually, talent wins out in a playoff series. The Penguins have far, far more talent.
9. I know that the Canes finished with 97 points, which was only two points -- or one win or two overtime losses -- short of the Penguins total of 99 points. But I really feel as though Dan Byslma has this team playing well, playing together, and focused on scoring goals, as evidenced by the upswing in shots on goal since he became coach, but particularly since the playoffs have started. With all the talent we have, it's really a numbers game: The more shots we put on net, the more we will score.
10. But, the Canes did eliminate the #1 seed in the Boston Bruins. I have to say, though, that the Bruins did not scare me. If we drew Boston, I would have predicted Penguins in six.
    

I have to say that I am supremely confident of a Penguins victory in this series. They can't hang with our talent. Our offense trumps their defense. Our power play trumps their penalty kill. Our goaltender trumps their goaltender.

I really just don't see how this plays out where the Penguins lose and don't advance to the Stanley Cup Final (dear God, please don't let it be against the Detroit Red Wings). I just don't see it.

As a matter of fact... I'm so supremely confident, that I will buy (and wear) a Joe Flacco jersey for all Steeler games come football season. This confidence should buoy the fans out there. But, the fact that I'm not willing to purchase (and wear) a Ray Lewis jersey for all Steeler games come football season should foretell the shadow of doubt; the grey lining in my cloud of silver.

(Editor's Note: The Flacco Bet only holds true if the Pens lose the series, not if they fail to win in the predicted number of games. Also, if anyone, that means anyone, wonders aloud why I am wearing a Flacco jersey, I am allowed to scream, "It was a bet!" The purchase of a Flacco jersey will not represent, in any way, shape, or form, an endorsement of the Hated Ravens, or their subsidiaries.)

Penguins in Five.

Playoff Beard Rules

I actually defined these rules last year during the run to the Stanley Cup Final, but never posted them. So, here they are. I am currently growing a playoff beard.

1. If you currently have a beard, it's okay.

I normally have a beard, but I trimmed it down before the Stanley Cup Playoffs started. The key is to take pride in your growth and the fact that you're supporting your team. As your beard grows, their chances to hoist Lord Stanley's Cup grow.

2. Neck beards are not cool.

Neck bears are unattractive, itchy, and basically the equivalent of slapping God in the face for giving you a beautiful gift.

The idea is that God gave us power of attorney over the beasts of the land, the sea, and the air. Earth is our sanctuary and our bodies are our temples. If we let hair grow on our necks, nature wins. We need to seize power of attorney and shave it down.

Also, if you look at NHL players, they're not rocking the Kyle Orton Classic. They keep a balance between order and chaos by holding their neck hair in check.

Additionally, a lot of hockey fans have these things. They're called jobs. A regular beard is usually acceptable, but a neck beard pushes the envelope. I love the Penguins. I love the Steelers. I love the Pirates. I love Pitt basketball. I love job security more.

And I'm sure we can all appreciate the relevance of that now.

3. The mustache is almost fair game.

If I kiss my wife (or significant other) and they make a face like a very small rat crawled up their nose and they need to expel it at all costs, then it's time to do some work on the old mustache.

I'm not saying trim it to douchebag levels (the 1 setting on most trimmers). I'm not saying that you should go all Civil War and just grow chops. I'm not saying you should go all Alternative Rocker and forgo the mustache. I'm saying this...

To paraphrase the great Dave Chappelle (from Half Baked)... I love hockey. I mean, I love hockey. But not as much as I love a certain part of the female anatomy.

Therefore, wife wins over hockey.

I'm sorry. I understand that this makes me a pansy. But, I'm a pansy who's getting some... so it's cool.

So, trim it within reason. And remember to walk that fine line between being a certain part of the female anatomy and "experiencing" a certain part of the female anatomy.

4. You are not allowed to make a spectacle of your playoff beard.

Don't tell anyone that you're growing one. Don't write blog posts about it (unless, you know, you're writing a guide about it... okay, I made that up to cover myself). Don't bring it up at happy hour.

Hockey is a sport of unwritten rules and silent acceptance. It isn't a sport for showboating or celebrating, which is why Malkin got in trouble for switching from the "arm pump, then hug teammates" paradigm.

The neck beard follows the same rules. Do not waiver from them.

5. You are not allowed to complain about your playoff beard.

Don't say, "Wow. This is getting out of hand. I can't wait until I can trim it or cut it off." Don't say, "I can't wait until the playoffs are over so that I can trim this or cut it off." Don't even say, "I can't wait until the Penguins win the Cup so I can trim this or cut it off."

If you're the kind of person that is superstitious enough to grow a playoff beard, you're the kind of person that is superstitious enough to believe that such statements can sink your team.

I actually said the third statement before the Final started against Detroit. And I will never forgive myself.

6. Have fun with it.

This is something that many sports fans (myself definitely included) forget. Sports are supposed to be fun. Sports are supposed to be an escape.

As many rules as I have outlined, rules are made to be broken. It's the playoffs. Not everything is called. Not everything requires a stoppage of play.

But, also remember that your team is counting on you, so, don't blow it.