Super Bowl 48 (I hate Roman numerals, Arabic numbering is where it's at) is right around the corner, but it seems to have built up without much build-up. Everyone knew there would be a lot of talk about Peyton Manning's legacy and what the game means to him, but most of the Media Day stuff that I've seen has been grasping at straws. Since Marshawn Lynch doesn't want to talk to the media much and someone needs to write something about him and the game, then the story is about how he's not talking and what ramifications there should be. Richard Sherman was a huge story right after the NFC Championship game, but a lot of that died down once they realized he's pretty boring when he has time to prepare for an interview (and he wasn't just coming off making a huge play that sent his team to the Super Bowl). Even the weather doesn't seem to want to add to the drama. Sure, it'll be pretty cold out, but they're not calling for precipitation. At 39 degrees and cloudy with moderate wind, the players probably prefer it. It's actually shaping up to be better football weather than it was for Super Bowl 41, which also involved Manning. (That was the first Super Bowl I watched on an HD TV and I was amazed by the detail you could see in each little raindrop on the camera lens. So, it rained a lot for that game.)
What I find interesting is that most of the storylines I've seen are actually about the game. Number 1 defense vs. Number 1 offense. Manning vs. Sherman. Manning vs. the league's best secondary. Russell Wilson vs. inexperience. How does adding Percy Harvin to the mix affect the outcome of the game? A lot of it seems to be about match-ups and how there are a ton of talented guys on both sides of the ball on both teams.
That means it's gotta come down to intangibles, right? Each side has a lot of those, too. Wilson is playing like a ten year veteran, is tough under pressure and throws a mean deep ball, which shoots holes in any argument that says he's just a game manager. Even though Manning threw a highly questionable interception in last year's Divisional round, he's beginning to shake off his "choke artist" image. He's still extremely dangerous in the two minute drill, is highly competitive, and has the respect and admiration of his teammates. Having won a Super Bowl and lost one, he knows how important and difficult it is to just get to the game, so he has no doubt impressed upon everyone that they can't get overwhelmed by the enormity of the game itself. Pete Carroll -- God help me -- is coaching out of his mind and has provided tremendous energy and inspiration to his team. John Fox knows what it's like to coach in the Big Game and lose.
Both teams have overcome injury and adversity to get to this point. Hell, Fox had heart surgery during the season and came back to the sidelines. The fact that Manning and Fox have been here before gives the Broncos a slight advantage. I wrote in the preview for Super Bowl 45 that having previous Super Bowl experience gives you a minor edge in the first five minutes and the last five minutes of game time. For the first five minutes, players who haven't been there before will probably be too hyped up and are more likely to make a mistake. Wilson certainly looked jittery at the outset of the NFC Championship game, but he and the Seahawks were able to overcome it. If he makes another mistake and the Broncos are able to capitalize on it, Seattle is in real trouble. They're not really built to overcome a big deficit without a huge play like a kick return or defensive touchdown. For the last five minutes, you're able to draw from personal experience what you did -- or didn't do -- to win. You certainly remember how you felt when that last five minutes was over and that can be used to focus and motivate.
Ultimately, I don't think it comes down to Manning vs. anyone. I think it comes down to how the Denver receivers match up against the Seahawks cornerbacks. Seattle had the best pass defense in the league throughout the regular season. They have a phenomenal secondary. Their cornerbacks are big and physical and have had their way with opposing wide receivers -- two talented groups in New Orleans and San Francisco -- thus far in the playoffs.
Where I think the Broncos have the advantage is that three of Manning's top targets -- Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, and Julius Thomas -- are all big, physical guys. While I don't think that their physical stature gives them carte blanche to win every battle and get an easy release on every play, I think they're going to win more battles than they lose. When those guys win those match-ups, Manning will get them the ball. I think this is going to be a fairly boring, very well-executed game. I don't think there are going to be a lot of big plays and momentum shifts. I think Manning is going to do what he did for most of Super Bowl 41: Take what the defense gives him, win several small battles, and hope to catch them sleeping deep. He picked his spots and wore the Bears defense down. He won the battle of mental attrition and kept his focus. I think he's going to do the same thing on Sunday to the Seahawks.
I think Denver's defense matches up well against Seattle's offense. I think they have the speed to stay with the Seahawks' playmakers and the edge rushers to keep Wilson honest and in the pocket. Their secondary has some big holes in it, but a lot of secondary issues can be covered up by a solid pass rush.
The Wildcard here is Marshawn Lynch. For all their athleticism, the Broncos can be undisciplined and take bad angles to the ball. They also don't tackle that well. If someone on Denver's defense takes a bad angle and/or misses a tackle, then Lynch can do a lot of damage in a hurry. If he has a big game, that swings things in Seattle's favor. I don't think that's going to happen, I think the Broncos will contain him as long as they need to and the Seahawks will eventually need to abandon the run and go into "comeback mode" which takes Lynch out of the game. But, that's why he's the Wildcard: Because I think that, but I'm not feeling really confident about it.
To quote the great John Madden, "The team that's able to score the most points is the team that's going to be able to win this game." To put a finer point on that obvious statement, both these teams are going to need to be able to score touchdowns when it counts: Inside the red zone. During the regular season, Denver had the best red zone offense (72% touchdown conversion rate) and Seattle had the best (39% touchdown allowed percentage). Denver was 28th on defense (62% allowed) and Seattle was 14th on offense (53% converted). The last three games, both teams have been trending in the wrong direction. The Seahawks have yielded 57% on defense and converted only 25% of the time on defense. The Broncos are giving up 75% on defense and converting 57% on offense.
The big difference is that Denver takes a lot of trips inside the red zone: 4.3 per game this season and 4.7 per game in their last three games. The numbers for Seattle are 3.4 and a very distressing 2.7. Both teams have a lot of weapons and a lot of options when they get inside the 20. The Seahawks will most likely be challenged more often. Are they up to that challenge and can they continue to hold the Broncos to field goals? My gut says that they will eventually fade, or at least they'll fail more often than they succeed.
That's why I'm taking the Broncos.
Prediction:
Denver 27, Seattle 20
Showing posts with label marshawn lynch. Show all posts
Showing posts with label marshawn lynch. Show all posts
Thursday, January 30, 2014
Wednesday, August 29, 2012
Fantasy Football Rules to Live By: 2012
I used to call this my Draft Manifesto, because I basically boosted the idea from ESPN's Matt Berry (aka The Talented Mr. Roto, or TMR for short). Here's his Manifesto for this year. Warning: He must get paid by the word, because he tends to ramble. With most Berry articles, you generally need to scroll down to the fourth paragraph so you can get past him talking about his wife and kids or how this season is like the storyline of Season Two of The Wire. Once you get to the meat of the article, it's a really good read with some insightful points, which is the case with anything TMR writes.
The basic point is that quarterbacks are now the most important players in fantasy football. They're more reliable, they score more points, and, most importantly, there's a big difference between the top four or five guys and everyone else. That used to be the case with running backs, which is why you needed to get a good one in the first round, especially since you start two in most leagues. But, now there's three top tier running backs (Foster, Rice, McCoy) and a bunch of guys with question marks. Anyone could blow up and have a huge year at any position. Cam Newton and Victor Cruz proved that last year. You usually want guys that are as much of a "sure thing" as possible and there are more of those -- with more consistently big numbers -- at quarterback than anywhere else.
Last year was the first year I decided to stay the hell away from certain teams altogether and that strategy worked, as I scored the most points in my league. Last year was different in that I mostly stayed away from teams that I felt would be under-prepared following the lockout. This year, I'm staying away from teams that I feel just flat-out suck.
So, I'm staying the hell away from guys on these teams:
I was way off with the Bengals and Panthers last season and Percy Harvin proved to be a really valuable wide receiver, but I was right for the most part to stay away from players on those teams. Most of those rosters of the three carryovers have either gotten worse or younger (or both). The Bengals and Panthers fielded some great fantasy football players with mostly young rosters, so it's tough to predict. Tough to predict means, to me, means that someone else can take the chance with these guys and their upside. I'm sticking with what I know.
1. The first three rounds shouldn't go RB, RB, WR.
That had been my strategy for years. The idea behind taking two running backs in the first three rounds -- I'd take a receiver in the first or second round if it was a really great player -- was that you want guys that are going to touch the ball a lot. Receivers only get a shot at the ball when someone throws it to them and tight ends get thrown at less than receivers. In fact, I just changed the title of this section to from "don't need to go RB, RB, WR" to "shouldn't go RB, RB, WR" because I don't think there are two running backs that should be taken over quarterbacks or wide receivers.
Now, pretty much everyone has a split-carry situation or they're on a team that doesn't run the ball well or doesn't run the ball much. As far as guys that are uncontested, talented players on teams that will run the ball a lot and run it well, you've got Foster, McCoy, and Rice. That's it.
But, you also have Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Calvin Johnson, Drew Brees, and Larry Fitzgerald in the top ten. ESPN's Top 300 lists 12 non-running backs in the top 20, including a frickin' tight end.
Now, I have to say that all the tight end talk is getting a little crazy. I'll probably be proved wrong on this, but it's what I believe. Drafting Gronk or Jimmy Graham in the second or third round is a bad idea, because it's very difficult to figure out whether they'll be able to sustain that production from year to year. A big part of Gronk's value last season was that scored a kajillion touchdowns. I would assume that he'll score less than a kajillion this season. Graham had a kajillion catches and caught a lot of people off guard. He also had Sean Payton calling the plays.
Again, it's your team, so you can go QB, TE, WR if you want. I just think there's a suitable substitute to be found at tight end in the later rounds.
Ultimately, if you want to get the best guy that touches the ball the most, quarterbacks touch the ball on every play. The best quarterbacks complete 65 percent of their passes. If the guy passes 40 times a game and gets ten yards a completion, that's better than Chris Johnson can get you on 20 carries.
2. Trust your cheat sheet.
Don't get cute is what I'm saying. I honestly have no idea who the 48th best receiver in fantasy football is. If you put a gun to my head and asked me to choose between Michael Turner and Frank Gore, I wouldn't be giving you a firm answer. Who knows which of those guys is better? Trust the cheat sheet.
There are tons of them available and the more reputable sites (check the link I gave above for the Top 300) are all about the same. You can tweak it when you get it into a spreadsheet or print it out, but don't get too cute. The people that compiled that cheat sheet spent way more time researching trends and stats and targets and stuff. And guess what? They're not experts, either. It mostly comes down to luck, timing, and the player themselves. Meteorologists go to school for 6-7 years and they can't predict for sure whether or not it's going to rain tomorrow.
Who the hell knows? If it's wrong, at least you can blame the cheat sheet. Especially in the first few rounds, grab the top guy on your board. You don't want to take two quarterbacks in the first two rounds -- unless your league starts two -- but best player available is a sound strategy. This also prevents you from reaching for a quarterback just because some idiot with a blog told you that quarterbacks are all the rage this year.
As mentioned above, the running back you get in Round 6 might be as good as a Round 2 guy, so take the wide receiver if he's ranked higher. Every time I've thought I out-foxed the competition and identified a super sleeper I've had a bad season. When I've trusted the cheat sheet, I've had a good season.
3. Use the Internet.
The Internet has really leveled the fantasy football playing field to the point where it really doesn't pay to have a "special list" of guys that you're targeting in each round. Everyone is working off the same, basic list, so it's pretty easy to peg a player that you want, look at alternates if he's gone, and have a decent sense for who's going to be available when you pick next. It has streamlined everything and it has made the work that you do after the draft and during the season that much more important.
Before you take a guy, especially if you think that he shouldn't be available in a given round, do a quick Google search or use the tools available to you if your draft is online and make sure he's not hurt or suspended or pending litigation. Make sure you do that last little bit of research before you make your selection.
4. I always take my defense and my kicker in the last two rounds.
You may feel passionately about a particular kicker or a particular defense, but they fluctuate too much from year to year and, ultimately, there isn't a huge difference between the #1 defense and the #12 defense. There's less of a difference between the #1 kicker and the #12 kicker. And, more often than not, some kicker/defense comes out of nowhere each year and is available on waivers.
In one of my drafts two years ago, it was getting into the late, late rounds and I realized I hadn't picked a kicker yet. I realized this because guys who had already filled out their roster were drafting back-up kickers. It was an online draft, so I went to the Kickers tab and took the first guy I saw. I thought I had it set up so that it would display the highest ranked guy first, but it was actually set to sort in alphabetical order. I drafted a guy because his last name was lower in the alphabet. That guy? Matt Bryant, who was the fourth-best fantasy kicker in 2010 and scored only 15 fewer points than the number one guy (Sebastian Janikowski).
I needed to draft two defenses in 2008, so I picked them in the last two rounds. I wound up with the Giants and the Steelers and they both scored well that season.
Additionally, the actual abbreviation for a defense is D/ST, which stands for Defense/Special Teams. With the kickoff rules changing last season and effectively taking kickoff returns out of the equation, that makes the Special Teams side of the equation less... well, special.
I don't like to commit to a higher pick than last and next-to-last for those reasons. I think I can find some "diamond in the rough" at RB or WR, or even possibly QB. In 2008, I drafted Kurt Warner in the 14th round. If I had drafted a defense instead, I would've missed out on Warner.
5. The later rounds are for taking chances.
Trust the cheat sheet early, but if you've got a guy that you "can't believe is still out there" or, for some strange reason, think that Randy Moss is going to finally put everything behind him and start being productive, take him late. If there's a guy that you think is going to be the starter in Week 1, they just haven't announced yet, take him before you take your kicker and your defense.
If they pan out (like Warner for me), then great. If not, you'll know early on that you can cut them and not worry about it. Every year, some quarterback or receiver or running back emerges from obscurity, but no one wants to take a chance on him in Week 1. You can cut your failed experiment and pick up that guy.
6. Someone will always want to go faster.
When I was 17 and first learning to drive, my Dad had me take about 100 miles of the stretch between LA and Las Vegas during a family trip. That piece of road is basically the Autobahn of the west, so I was getting passed by everybody. I sped up to about 80 because I was tired of getting passed and my Dad told me to slow down. I said I was sick of getting passed up and that everyone else was speeding, too. He said, "Slow down. No matter how fast you go, there will be someone else that wants to go faster."
No matter how much research you do, how many fantasy football experts you follow on Twitter, how many Google Alerts you sign up for, someone else will want to go faster.
Don't be a slacker; do your research, perform your due diligence. But, really, even the guys that work on this full time can't accurately predict the future. You will miss an update and someone else will sign a guy you wanted. There will be a number of guys that you didn't draft that end up making someone else's season. Whatever you might win if you win the league isn't worth your job. Just pump the brakes if you need to.
7. So, fill out your roster, get your back-ups, take a couple of long shots, then your kicker and defense.
In that order.
For IDP leagues (ones where you draft individual defensive players), here's what I usually do...
Your draft is, without a doubt, the most important single move you will make in your season. But, it's only one move. Say you pick up one free agent a week and there are another two guys you think about picking up, but don't. Say you think about one trade a week and either make that trade or don't. Say you change your line-up twice a week before it's finally set. In a 16 game season -- hoping you make the playoffs -- that means that the draft is still #1 on the list, but it also means that the list is 97 items long. Every move is important and every move can change your season.
You can have a great draft, but have a crappy season. You can have a crappy draft, but have a great season. The rules listed above are super simple and pretty straightforward. I'm not the first person to think of those rules. Sure, I've adjusted over the years, but it's not rocket science. It's also mostly luck, remember that.
In 2008, my one buddy had, by all accounts, a great draft. He was able to keep a solid running back and drafted Tom Brady and Ronnie Brown, so his backfield and quarterback were set. Until Brady blew out his knee eight minutes into the season and Brown blew his out in Week 8. But, my friend still made the playoffs because he managed his team well. He dropped some guys and picked up other key guys. He made some trades. He completely overhauled his team.
My first fantasy football draft was a complete disaster. I drafted Travis Henry in the first round and Kerry Collins in the third round (after I drafted a quarterback in the second round, can't remember who that was). I still finished 7-7 because I was willing to gut my team and start over.
The next season, I came to the draft fully prepared, with last season's lessons learned. I felt confident about my draft... and still finished 6-8.
Basically, that means your season isn't over when you finish drafting. It's not over when your star players go down with injuries. It's not over until... well, the season's over.
Don't be afraid to pull the trigger on that "breakout" free agent, even if you're sure that running back you took in the 13th round is this close to turning things around. Don't be afraid to kill your darlings.
That also means you need to stay on top of which players to pick up and which players to drop. Again, I like ESPN. They have a ton of free content on their fantasy football site. Matthew Berry is good. Eric Karabell is solid, but he's on the conservative side. Tristan Cockroft... I have to say I've never read one of his articles. I'm sure he's a fine analyst, but I can't get past the name.
I'm also an ESPN Insider, which is, I think, $40 a year. There's a lot of Insider content that's useful and they also have something called The Answer Guys. Once a week, you can ask The Answer Guys a question. I usually ask them a line-up question -- who to start and who to bench. If your league is big enough, that peace of mind can be worth it. Additionally, they provide a lot of good information in the month leading up to the NFL draft, NFL free agency, and baseball's trade deadline.
Which brings us to this: Try to have some fun. You're supposed to be having fun, DAMMIT.
The basic point is that quarterbacks are now the most important players in fantasy football. They're more reliable, they score more points, and, most importantly, there's a big difference between the top four or five guys and everyone else. That used to be the case with running backs, which is why you needed to get a good one in the first round, especially since you start two in most leagues. But, now there's three top tier running backs (Foster, Rice, McCoy) and a bunch of guys with question marks. Anyone could blow up and have a huge year at any position. Cam Newton and Victor Cruz proved that last year. You usually want guys that are as much of a "sure thing" as possible and there are more of those -- with more consistently big numbers -- at quarterback than anywhere else.
Last year was the first year I decided to stay the hell away from certain teams altogether and that strategy worked, as I scored the most points in my league. Last year was different in that I mostly stayed away from teams that I felt would be under-prepared following the lockout. This year, I'm staying away from teams that I feel just flat-out suck.
So, I'm staying the hell away from guys on these teams:
- Jaguars (even MJD)
- Dolphins
- Browns
- Seahawks
- Titans (except Chris Johnson)
- Colts
- Cardinals
- Rams
I was way off with the Bengals and Panthers last season and Percy Harvin proved to be a really valuable wide receiver, but I was right for the most part to stay away from players on those teams. Most of those rosters of the three carryovers have either gotten worse or younger (or both). The Bengals and Panthers fielded some great fantasy football players with mostly young rosters, so it's tough to predict. Tough to predict means, to me, means that someone else can take the chance with these guys and their upside. I'm sticking with what I know.
If someone emerges from one of those teams and is available as a free agent, then I'll scoop him up in a hurry. You may want to add them to your list of teams to avoid or you may want to make your own list. You may think that I'm an idiot for putting the Seahawks on that list because Marshawn Lynch is totally gonna light it up this season. You may adopt a "No Child Left Behind" policy and not discriminate against players just because they happen to collect paychecks from a certain team. It's your team, do what you want. The title "Rules to Live By" makes a cooler looking link and makes it sound like I'm an authority on the matter, but these are really just guidelines.
1. The first three rounds shouldn't go RB, RB, WR.
That had been my strategy for years. The idea behind taking two running backs in the first three rounds -- I'd take a receiver in the first or second round if it was a really great player -- was that you want guys that are going to touch the ball a lot. Receivers only get a shot at the ball when someone throws it to them and tight ends get thrown at less than receivers. In fact, I just changed the title of this section to from "don't need to go RB, RB, WR" to "shouldn't go RB, RB, WR" because I don't think there are two running backs that should be taken over quarterbacks or wide receivers.
Now, pretty much everyone has a split-carry situation or they're on a team that doesn't run the ball well or doesn't run the ball much. As far as guys that are uncontested, talented players on teams that will run the ball a lot and run it well, you've got Foster, McCoy, and Rice. That's it.
But, you also have Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Calvin Johnson, Drew Brees, and Larry Fitzgerald in the top ten. ESPN's Top 300 lists 12 non-running backs in the top 20, including a frickin' tight end.
Now, I have to say that all the tight end talk is getting a little crazy. I'll probably be proved wrong on this, but it's what I believe. Drafting Gronk or Jimmy Graham in the second or third round is a bad idea, because it's very difficult to figure out whether they'll be able to sustain that production from year to year. A big part of Gronk's value last season was that scored a kajillion touchdowns. I would assume that he'll score less than a kajillion this season. Graham had a kajillion catches and caught a lot of people off guard. He also had Sean Payton calling the plays.
Again, it's your team, so you can go QB, TE, WR if you want. I just think there's a suitable substitute to be found at tight end in the later rounds.
Ultimately, if you want to get the best guy that touches the ball the most, quarterbacks touch the ball on every play. The best quarterbacks complete 65 percent of their passes. If the guy passes 40 times a game and gets ten yards a completion, that's better than Chris Johnson can get you on 20 carries.
2. Trust your cheat sheet.
Don't get cute is what I'm saying. I honestly have no idea who the 48th best receiver in fantasy football is. If you put a gun to my head and asked me to choose between Michael Turner and Frank Gore, I wouldn't be giving you a firm answer. Who knows which of those guys is better? Trust the cheat sheet.
There are tons of them available and the more reputable sites (check the link I gave above for the Top 300) are all about the same. You can tweak it when you get it into a spreadsheet or print it out, but don't get too cute. The people that compiled that cheat sheet spent way more time researching trends and stats and targets and stuff. And guess what? They're not experts, either. It mostly comes down to luck, timing, and the player themselves. Meteorologists go to school for 6-7 years and they can't predict for sure whether or not it's going to rain tomorrow.
Who the hell knows? If it's wrong, at least you can blame the cheat sheet. Especially in the first few rounds, grab the top guy on your board. You don't want to take two quarterbacks in the first two rounds -- unless your league starts two -- but best player available is a sound strategy. This also prevents you from reaching for a quarterback just because some idiot with a blog told you that quarterbacks are all the rage this year.
As mentioned above, the running back you get in Round 6 might be as good as a Round 2 guy, so take the wide receiver if he's ranked higher. Every time I've thought I out-foxed the competition and identified a super sleeper I've had a bad season. When I've trusted the cheat sheet, I've had a good season.
3. Use the Internet.
The Internet has really leveled the fantasy football playing field to the point where it really doesn't pay to have a "special list" of guys that you're targeting in each round. Everyone is working off the same, basic list, so it's pretty easy to peg a player that you want, look at alternates if he's gone, and have a decent sense for who's going to be available when you pick next. It has streamlined everything and it has made the work that you do after the draft and during the season that much more important.
Before you take a guy, especially if you think that he shouldn't be available in a given round, do a quick Google search or use the tools available to you if your draft is online and make sure he's not hurt or suspended or pending litigation. Make sure you do that last little bit of research before you make your selection.
4. I always take my defense and my kicker in the last two rounds.
You may feel passionately about a particular kicker or a particular defense, but they fluctuate too much from year to year and, ultimately, there isn't a huge difference between the #1 defense and the #12 defense. There's less of a difference between the #1 kicker and the #12 kicker. And, more often than not, some kicker/defense comes out of nowhere each year and is available on waivers.
In one of my drafts two years ago, it was getting into the late, late rounds and I realized I hadn't picked a kicker yet. I realized this because guys who had already filled out their roster were drafting back-up kickers. It was an online draft, so I went to the Kickers tab and took the first guy I saw. I thought I had it set up so that it would display the highest ranked guy first, but it was actually set to sort in alphabetical order. I drafted a guy because his last name was lower in the alphabet. That guy? Matt Bryant, who was the fourth-best fantasy kicker in 2010 and scored only 15 fewer points than the number one guy (Sebastian Janikowski).
I needed to draft two defenses in 2008, so I picked them in the last two rounds. I wound up with the Giants and the Steelers and they both scored well that season.
Additionally, the actual abbreviation for a defense is D/ST, which stands for Defense/Special Teams. With the kickoff rules changing last season and effectively taking kickoff returns out of the equation, that makes the Special Teams side of the equation less... well, special.
I don't like to commit to a higher pick than last and next-to-last for those reasons. I think I can find some "diamond in the rough" at RB or WR, or even possibly QB. In 2008, I drafted Kurt Warner in the 14th round. If I had drafted a defense instead, I would've missed out on Warner.
5. The later rounds are for taking chances.
Trust the cheat sheet early, but if you've got a guy that you "can't believe is still out there" or, for some strange reason, think that Randy Moss is going to finally put everything behind him and start being productive, take him late. If there's a guy that you think is going to be the starter in Week 1, they just haven't announced yet, take him before you take your kicker and your defense.
If they pan out (like Warner for me), then great. If not, you'll know early on that you can cut them and not worry about it. Every year, some quarterback or receiver or running back emerges from obscurity, but no one wants to take a chance on him in Week 1. You can cut your failed experiment and pick up that guy.
6. Someone will always want to go faster.
When I was 17 and first learning to drive, my Dad had me take about 100 miles of the stretch between LA and Las Vegas during a family trip. That piece of road is basically the Autobahn of the west, so I was getting passed by everybody. I sped up to about 80 because I was tired of getting passed and my Dad told me to slow down. I said I was sick of getting passed up and that everyone else was speeding, too. He said, "Slow down. No matter how fast you go, there will be someone else that wants to go faster."
No matter how much research you do, how many fantasy football experts you follow on Twitter, how many Google Alerts you sign up for, someone else will want to go faster.
Don't be a slacker; do your research, perform your due diligence. But, really, even the guys that work on this full time can't accurately predict the future. You will miss an update and someone else will sign a guy you wanted. There will be a number of guys that you didn't draft that end up making someone else's season. Whatever you might win if you win the league isn't worth your job. Just pump the brakes if you need to.
7. So, fill out your roster, get your back-ups, take a couple of long shots, then your kicker and defense.
In that order.
For IDP leagues (ones where you draft individual defensive players), here's what I usually do...
- Draft your position guys, then draft priority defensive players, then draft back-ups, then fill in your roster.
- But, if it's between a great back-up and a great defensive player, choose the great back-up. I've found you can pluck guys off the waiver wire without too much of a fall off.
- Draft linebackers first and draft linebackers that get a lot of tackles. So, don't draft James Harrison or Terrell Suggs, because they'll get you 15 points one week, but .5 points the next. D'Qwell Jackson, Patrick Willis, Sean Lee, even Ray Lewis. Look at the leaders for tackles last year and target the linebackers that were at the top of that list.
- If you can't get Troy, don't draft a safety.
- Don't draft Revis or one of the big name cornerbacks. No one throws at those guys, so they never get any tackles. Target guys that can't cover and can't really catch... like the Steelers cornerbacks. They'll get a lot of passes defended and a lot of tackles. Also look at Cover 2 guys for the same reason, so the corners for Tampa, Chicago, Minnesota, and Indy.
- Don't draft defensive tackles. At all. For the defensive line, draft a guy that had at least ten sacks last year. Anything that your defensive line adds is gravy after you get as much as you can from the more consistent and productive positions.
Your draft is, without a doubt, the most important single move you will make in your season. But, it's only one move. Say you pick up one free agent a week and there are another two guys you think about picking up, but don't. Say you think about one trade a week and either make that trade or don't. Say you change your line-up twice a week before it's finally set. In a 16 game season -- hoping you make the playoffs -- that means that the draft is still #1 on the list, but it also means that the list is 97 items long. Every move is important and every move can change your season.
You can have a great draft, but have a crappy season. You can have a crappy draft, but have a great season. The rules listed above are super simple and pretty straightforward. I'm not the first person to think of those rules. Sure, I've adjusted over the years, but it's not rocket science. It's also mostly luck, remember that.
In 2008, my one buddy had, by all accounts, a great draft. He was able to keep a solid running back and drafted Tom Brady and Ronnie Brown, so his backfield and quarterback were set. Until Brady blew out his knee eight minutes into the season and Brown blew his out in Week 8. But, my friend still made the playoffs because he managed his team well. He dropped some guys and picked up other key guys. He made some trades. He completely overhauled his team.
My first fantasy football draft was a complete disaster. I drafted Travis Henry in the first round and Kerry Collins in the third round (after I drafted a quarterback in the second round, can't remember who that was). I still finished 7-7 because I was willing to gut my team and start over.
The next season, I came to the draft fully prepared, with last season's lessons learned. I felt confident about my draft... and still finished 6-8.
Basically, that means your season isn't over when you finish drafting. It's not over when your star players go down with injuries. It's not over until... well, the season's over.
Don't be afraid to pull the trigger on that "breakout" free agent, even if you're sure that running back you took in the 13th round is this close to turning things around. Don't be afraid to kill your darlings.
That also means you need to stay on top of which players to pick up and which players to drop. Again, I like ESPN. They have a ton of free content on their fantasy football site. Matthew Berry is good. Eric Karabell is solid, but he's on the conservative side. Tristan Cockroft... I have to say I've never read one of his articles. I'm sure he's a fine analyst, but I can't get past the name.
I'm also an ESPN Insider, which is, I think, $40 a year. There's a lot of Insider content that's useful and they also have something called The Answer Guys. Once a week, you can ask The Answer Guys a question. I usually ask them a line-up question -- who to start and who to bench. If your league is big enough, that peace of mind can be worth it. Additionally, they provide a lot of good information in the month leading up to the NFL draft, NFL free agency, and baseball's trade deadline.
Which brings us to this: Try to have some fun. You're supposed to be having fun, DAMMIT.
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