I actually defined these rules last year during the run to the Stanley Cup Final, but never posted them. So, here they are. I am currently growing a playoff beard.
1. If you currently have a beard, it's okay.
I normally have a beard, but I trimmed it down before the Stanley Cup Playoffs started. The key is to take pride in your growth and the fact that you're supporting your team. As your beard grows, their chances to hoist Lord Stanley's Cup grow.
2. Neck beards are not cool.
Neck bears are unattractive, itchy, and basically the equivalent of slapping God in the face for giving you a beautiful gift.
The idea is that God gave us power of attorney over the beasts of the land, the sea, and the air. Earth is our sanctuary and our bodies are our temples. If we let hair grow on our necks, nature wins. We need to seize power of attorney and shave it down.
Also, if you look at NHL players, they're not rocking the Kyle Orton Classic. They keep a balance between order and chaos by holding their neck hair in check.
Additionally, a lot of hockey fans have these things. They're called jobs. A regular beard is usually acceptable, but a neck beard pushes the envelope. I love the Penguins. I love the Steelers. I love the Pirates. I love Pitt basketball. I love job security more.
And I'm sure we can all appreciate the relevance of that now.
3. The mustache is almost fair game.
If I kiss my wife (or significant other) and they make a face like a very small rat crawled up their nose and they need to expel it at all costs, then it's time to do some work on the old mustache.
I'm not saying trim it to douchebag levels (the 1 setting on most trimmers). I'm not saying that you should go all Civil War and just grow chops. I'm not saying you should go all Alternative Rocker and forgo the mustache. I'm saying this...
To paraphrase the great Dave Chappelle (from Half Baked)... I love hockey. I mean, I love hockey. But not as much as I love a certain part of the female anatomy.
Therefore, wife wins over hockey.
I'm sorry. I understand that this makes me a pansy. But, I'm a pansy who's getting some... so it's cool.
So, trim it within reason. And remember to walk that fine line between being a certain part of the female anatomy and "experiencing" a certain part of the female anatomy.
4. You are not allowed to make a spectacle of your playoff beard.
Don't tell anyone that you're growing one. Don't write blog posts about it (unless, you know, you're writing a guide about it... okay, I made that up to cover myself). Don't bring it up at happy hour.
Hockey is a sport of unwritten rules and silent acceptance. It isn't a sport for showboating or celebrating, which is why Malkin got in trouble for switching from the "arm pump, then hug teammates" paradigm.
The neck beard follows the same rules. Do not waiver from them.
5. You are not allowed to complain about your playoff beard.
Don't say, "Wow. This is getting out of hand. I can't wait until I can trim it or cut it off." Don't say, "I can't wait until the playoffs are over so that I can trim this or cut it off." Don't even say, "I can't wait until the Penguins win the Cup so I can trim this or cut it off."
If you're the kind of person that is superstitious enough to grow a playoff beard, you're the kind of person that is superstitious enough to believe that such statements can sink your team.
I actually said the third statement before the Final started against Detroit. And I will never forgive myself.
6. Have fun with it.
This is something that many sports fans (myself definitely included) forget. Sports are supposed to be fun. Sports are supposed to be an escape.
As many rules as I have outlined, rules are made to be broken. It's the playoffs. Not everything is called. Not everything requires a stoppage of play.
But, also remember that your team is counting on you, so, don't blow it.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Penguins-Capitals Preview
I don't want to hear about how fierce the hitting was in the Flyers series and how the team that won -- in this case, the Penguins -- will be too beat up to play well in the following series.
First of all, the Flyers series ended last Saturday. The first game of the Capitals series is this Saturday. That gave the Pens a full week of rest and recovery. Plus which, it's not like these guys are you or me. If I faced the Flyers and got checked against the boards for six games, I'd be useless for about a month. But, I'm fat and out of shape. No professional hockey player is, they train all season and during the offseason for the long grind of the postseason. They'll come out firing on all cylinders and won't be "dead" or "tired" or "beat up". They'll be fine. Same goes for the Capitals, who are working on less rest and just played a seven game series. I refuse to believe that they'll be too worn out to get up for the Pens. These are professional athletes and the biggest prize in all of professional sports is at stake. Even if they're dead, they're not dead.
I don't want to hear about how we could've lost the Flyers series. There were long stretches where we were outplayed. We caught some breaks. We had some timely goaltending. But so did they. And, as regular readers know, I hate "What if" people. Basically, they're saying, "If we didn't do the things that caused us to lose, we would have beat you." Or, "If you hadn't done those things that caused you to win, you would've lost." There is money in revisionist history. There is some joy. There are no titles. Not even the 1919 Reds ended up with a title, the Black Sox were just stripped of theirs.
I don't want to hear about how the Penguins beat the fifth seed in six games, but the Capitals were taken to the brink by the seventh seed in seven games. That was last series and has nothing to do with this series.
I don't want to hear about how the Capitals "are hot" because they came back from a 3-1 deficit to win their last series. Guess what? They were cold enough to go down 3-1. If the Rangers had put them away, we'd be talking about Carolina right now. And that was last series, which has nothing to do with this series.
What I do want to hear about is who will win this series and why. Because, in all honesty, I'm not sure one way or the other. I know that the teams are evenly matched. I know that I want the Pens to win. I know that Alex Ovetchkin is one of the five best players in the world. I know that you can also say that about Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. I know that this series will go to seven games. What I do not not, for 100% sure, is who will win.
We're so close to being the Capitals and they're so close to being us that it clouds things.
Against the Flyers this year, I could see that they wanted to be the Broadstreet Bullies, but couldn't. Since they couldn't -- and since Gary Bettman wisely changed the rules after the lockout -- the Penguins won.
Against the Flyers last year, I knew they had too many injuries and we had too much talent.
Against the Rangers last year, I knew that Lundquist was vulnerable and that all we had to do was contain Jagr.
Against the Senators last year, I knew that they had half a roster and made it to the playoffs on fumes.
Against the Red Wings, I thought I knew that we had the talent advantage, but now I'm not so sure.
Against the Capitals this year... it's like we're playing us. Young, talented roster with a veteran supporting cast. Some offensive defensemen and some brawlers. They have more enforcers, but we have more shooters. They have one of the five best hockey players on the planet, we have one of the five best hockey players on the planet. They have an extraordinarily solid goalie that is outshined by the star power at other positions, we have an extraordinarily solid goalie that is outshined by the star power at other positions.
We lean on our stars, they lean on their stars. We can be tough if we need to, they can be tough if they need to. But neither is the game that either team likes to lean on.
However, even if we're two very similar teams, we're not secretly proud of or happy for the other team. And, I know that obviously would never happen with the Flyers, but you have to admit that you were proud of Ottawa for reaching the Cup Final after they beat us in 2006. That won't happen with Pens fans if the Caps win. That won't happen with Caps fans if the Pens win.
I said before that I think this series will go to seven games. Realistically, when you get to Game 7, anything can happen. It also stands to reason that, if you get to a Game 7, the teams are evenly matched.
Three things will turn the tide in this series: Goaltending, Talent, and Coaching.
I trust Fleury more than I trust Theodore or Varlamov. And, in crunch time, when one team needs a huge save to hold the series together... who would you trust more? To make that one, critical, series saving play... you want Fleury, right? Me, too.
Talent is obviously in our favor. They have Ovetchkin, but we have Crosby, Malkin, and Staal. So, one of the best five players in the world against three of the twenty best. Who do you think has the edge?
Coaching. Gotta go against Bylsma here, even though I like him a lot. I think the players are playing hard for him, they're inspired by him, and they want to win for him... and themselves, but I just think that he's in over his head. So, that edge goes to the Capitals.
But that still leaves two of three edges to the Pens, which means that they have the overall edge.
Which means that, home ice or not, they Pens win.
Penguins in 7.
First of all, the Flyers series ended last Saturday. The first game of the Capitals series is this Saturday. That gave the Pens a full week of rest and recovery. Plus which, it's not like these guys are you or me. If I faced the Flyers and got checked against the boards for six games, I'd be useless for about a month. But, I'm fat and out of shape. No professional hockey player is, they train all season and during the offseason for the long grind of the postseason. They'll come out firing on all cylinders and won't be "dead" or "tired" or "beat up". They'll be fine. Same goes for the Capitals, who are working on less rest and just played a seven game series. I refuse to believe that they'll be too worn out to get up for the Pens. These are professional athletes and the biggest prize in all of professional sports is at stake. Even if they're dead, they're not dead.
I don't want to hear about how we could've lost the Flyers series. There were long stretches where we were outplayed. We caught some breaks. We had some timely goaltending. But so did they. And, as regular readers know, I hate "What if" people. Basically, they're saying, "If we didn't do the things that caused us to lose, we would have beat you." Or, "If you hadn't done those things that caused you to win, you would've lost." There is money in revisionist history. There is some joy. There are no titles. Not even the 1919 Reds ended up with a title, the Black Sox were just stripped of theirs.
I don't want to hear about how the Penguins beat the fifth seed in six games, but the Capitals were taken to the brink by the seventh seed in seven games. That was last series and has nothing to do with this series.
I don't want to hear about how the Capitals "are hot" because they came back from a 3-1 deficit to win their last series. Guess what? They were cold enough to go down 3-1. If the Rangers had put them away, we'd be talking about Carolina right now. And that was last series, which has nothing to do with this series.
What I do want to hear about is who will win this series and why. Because, in all honesty, I'm not sure one way or the other. I know that the teams are evenly matched. I know that I want the Pens to win. I know that Alex Ovetchkin is one of the five best players in the world. I know that you can also say that about Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. I know that this series will go to seven games. What I do not not, for 100% sure, is who will win.
We're so close to being the Capitals and they're so close to being us that it clouds things.
Against the Flyers this year, I could see that they wanted to be the Broadstreet Bullies, but couldn't. Since they couldn't -- and since Gary Bettman wisely changed the rules after the lockout -- the Penguins won.
Against the Flyers last year, I knew they had too many injuries and we had too much talent.
Against the Rangers last year, I knew that Lundquist was vulnerable and that all we had to do was contain Jagr.
Against the Senators last year, I knew that they had half a roster and made it to the playoffs on fumes.
Against the Red Wings, I thought I knew that we had the talent advantage, but now I'm not so sure.
Against the Capitals this year... it's like we're playing us. Young, talented roster with a veteran supporting cast. Some offensive defensemen and some brawlers. They have more enforcers, but we have more shooters. They have one of the five best hockey players on the planet, we have one of the five best hockey players on the planet. They have an extraordinarily solid goalie that is outshined by the star power at other positions, we have an extraordinarily solid goalie that is outshined by the star power at other positions.
We lean on our stars, they lean on their stars. We can be tough if we need to, they can be tough if they need to. But neither is the game that either team likes to lean on.
However, even if we're two very similar teams, we're not secretly proud of or happy for the other team. And, I know that obviously would never happen with the Flyers, but you have to admit that you were proud of Ottawa for reaching the Cup Final after they beat us in 2006. That won't happen with Pens fans if the Caps win. That won't happen with Caps fans if the Pens win.
I said before that I think this series will go to seven games. Realistically, when you get to Game 7, anything can happen. It also stands to reason that, if you get to a Game 7, the teams are evenly matched.
Three things will turn the tide in this series: Goaltending, Talent, and Coaching.
I trust Fleury more than I trust Theodore or Varlamov. And, in crunch time, when one team needs a huge save to hold the series together... who would you trust more? To make that one, critical, series saving play... you want Fleury, right? Me, too.
Talent is obviously in our favor. They have Ovetchkin, but we have Crosby, Malkin, and Staal. So, one of the best five players in the world against three of the twenty best. Who do you think has the edge?
Coaching. Gotta go against Bylsma here, even though I like him a lot. I think the players are playing hard for him, they're inspired by him, and they want to win for him... and themselves, but I just think that he's in over his head. So, that edge goes to the Capitals.
But that still leaves two of three edges to the Pens, which means that they have the overall edge.
Which means that, home ice or not, they Pens win.
Penguins in 7.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
A Few Things
- The Steelers signed 13 undrafted free agents. Nine draft picks, 13 undrafted guys. That makes 22 new players. Only lost one starter. So, there aren't 22 roster spots available. God bless these guys, especially local boy Kevin McCabe. I hope he makes the team, but, with Dixon, Roethlisberger, and Batch already on the roster, I think his best bet is the practice squad. And even that looks like a long shot. Here's the full ist: http://news.steelers.com/article/105142/.
- I think the Steelers should sign Ashley Lelie. Lelie was in town yesterday for a visit. You may remember him as the guy that helped assassinate your fantasy football team in 2004 -- when everyone predicted that he'd be the guy to make the "third year leap" that most receivers who are worth anything make -- and you made the mistake of drafting him in the sixth round, then cutting him by Week 5. Just me? I'm the only guy who did that? Well, he belongs in the Donte Stallworth Hall of Fame between Michael Clayton and David Patten. At any rate, I'm trying to talk about why they should sign him, so we'll put fantasy football aside. He's no longer worth drafting in fantasy football leagues, but he is worth a shot on the Pittsburgh roster. He's 6'3". He's still fast. He has a career yards per catch average of 17.3. That's for his career. Which, surprisingly, includes 217 receptions, 15 for touchdowns. He's not the second coming of Jerry Rice or anything, but, for $26.5 million less than Nate Washington, he's well worth it. He'll give Limas Sweed some real competition. He'll show the young guys the ropes, as well as serving as a cautionary tale regarding wasted talent. At worst, he ends up being our fourth or fifth receiver. At best, he actually catches some passes thrown in his direction. We can expect something in the middle.
- Speaking of the middle, Larry Foote was released. I'm no psychic (although I did successfully predict Joe Burnett in the fifth round) but you have to think he ends up signing with Steelers West. And that's not a shot. I really think that's where he ends up. Either there or Cleveland, following in the proud tradition of Earl Holmes.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Steelers Draft Review 2009
I've been over this and over this in my head. I've looked at the list of guys that we took again and again. I've talked to God knows how many people about it. I've tried to look at the 2009 draft for the Steelers from every angle.
I've tried to find my own angle. But, really, this is all I have: If you're looking for a grade for the 2009 Steelers draft, you have to ask yourself how Ziggy Hood is going to do. If he has a long and productive career, then I think it gets a B. If, like I think will happen, he ends up being the next Chris Hoke, then the draft gets a C.
(This is not to say that I dislike Chris Hoke. This is only to say that I think of Hoke as a capable back-up and that's it. If we drafted Hoke in the first round, you would be disappointed in the pick. And I would be disappointed in the pick. So let's hope Hood isn't the next Hope.)
Now, I've claimed before that it was only a matter of time until Tomlin took over the team -- and the defense -- and LeBeau and the 3-4 quietly stepped aside. I don't think Tomlin would force LeBeau out, but I also think that LeBeau knows that he can't coach forever. I've been predicting that LeBeau would step aside for some time now, but I really do think that it happens after the 2009 season.
Tomlin is now established. He's won a Super Bowl. This is his team. He's put his stamp on it. Just like when Ron Erhardt ran the offense for Cowher, then stepped down, I think LeBeau will step down now that Tomlin is ready. It's just a hunch. It hasn't happened yet. It probably won't happen until after the season. But I think it happens. And I think that LeBeau is the kind of guy that won't hang on too long. Or, really, won't retire in March 2010 and not tell anyone.
Two years ago, I was afraid that we didn't have the personnel to support the 4-3/Cover 2 defense. Now, with Hood, Lawrence Timmons, LaMarr Woodley, the aging of Keisel, Hampton, and Smith, and the fact that James Harrison can play any position in the 4-3, depending on down and distance, I think our current personnel is holding us back from making the switch.
I'm fine with another year of the 3-4. Especially since we've got the league's best defense. But, I really believe we need to move -- and have been moving towards -- the 4-3.
I personally don't think that Hood is a good fit in the 3-4 at any position in the front seven. Some people whose opinions that I respect have said otherwise. But, I really think his first, best destiny -- and what is going to save this draft class from being an average draft class -- is nose tackle in the Cover 2. I think that he will destroy people, probably end up going to the Pro Bowl a number of times, and possibly end up in the Hall of Fame if he gets to work in the Cover 2. If he's forced to work in the 3-4 that the Steelers run, then he's the next Chris Hoke.
Now for the rest of my draft and the rest of my thoughts...
The Patriots have been criticized in recent years for not drafting well. I think it's that they had so much talent on their roster and couldn't take an unproven guy over someone they knew and trusted.
Therefore, you can't judge this draft class on playing time and starts. You have to judge them on quality guys that they drafted that ended up making a contribution. By that measure, I think the Steelers get an A on this one.
Provided that Ziggy Hood holds up his end of the bargain, that is...
I've tried to find my own angle. But, really, this is all I have: If you're looking for a grade for the 2009 Steelers draft, you have to ask yourself how Ziggy Hood is going to do. If he has a long and productive career, then I think it gets a B. If, like I think will happen, he ends up being the next Chris Hoke, then the draft gets a C.
(This is not to say that I dislike Chris Hoke. This is only to say that I think of Hoke as a capable back-up and that's it. If we drafted Hoke in the first round, you would be disappointed in the pick. And I would be disappointed in the pick. So let's hope Hood isn't the next Hope.)
Now, I've claimed before that it was only a matter of time until Tomlin took over the team -- and the defense -- and LeBeau and the 3-4 quietly stepped aside. I don't think Tomlin would force LeBeau out, but I also think that LeBeau knows that he can't coach forever. I've been predicting that LeBeau would step aside for some time now, but I really do think that it happens after the 2009 season.
Tomlin is now established. He's won a Super Bowl. This is his team. He's put his stamp on it. Just like when Ron Erhardt ran the offense for Cowher, then stepped down, I think LeBeau will step down now that Tomlin is ready. It's just a hunch. It hasn't happened yet. It probably won't happen until after the season. But I think it happens. And I think that LeBeau is the kind of guy that won't hang on too long. Or, really, won't retire in March 2010 and not tell anyone.
Two years ago, I was afraid that we didn't have the personnel to support the 4-3/Cover 2 defense. Now, with Hood, Lawrence Timmons, LaMarr Woodley, the aging of Keisel, Hampton, and Smith, and the fact that James Harrison can play any position in the 4-3, depending on down and distance, I think our current personnel is holding us back from making the switch.
I'm fine with another year of the 3-4. Especially since we've got the league's best defense. But, I really believe we need to move -- and have been moving towards -- the 4-3.
I personally don't think that Hood is a good fit in the 3-4 at any position in the front seven. Some people whose opinions that I respect have said otherwise. But, I really think his first, best destiny -- and what is going to save this draft class from being an average draft class -- is nose tackle in the Cover 2. I think that he will destroy people, probably end up going to the Pro Bowl a number of times, and possibly end up in the Hall of Fame if he gets to work in the Cover 2. If he's forced to work in the 3-4 that the Steelers run, then he's the next Chris Hoke.
Now for the rest of my draft and the rest of my thoughts...
- I think that they filled a lot of needs and, overall, had a really good draft. Not a lot of star power, but I think they picked up a lot of good contributors.
- I'm glad they didn't reach for a guard or a tackle in the first round, because there were no guys with a first round (or even middle of the second round) grade on them by the time they drafted. And, really, it made sense for them to get out of the second round for the same reason.
- Kraig Urbik is the kind of guard that we draft. Let's hope he makes it and learns how to pass block. That's not his longsuit, so that's why he was available in the third round.
- Mike Wallace is another Nate Washington. Hopefully we get the same production out of Wallace that we got out of Washington before he left. And, hopefully, some team is dumb enough to throw $27 million at him when his contract is up.
- I think Keenan Lewis is a better fit if we go to the Cover 2, but I think he'll still be a solid contributor.
- I obviously like Joe Burnett enough to have predicted that the Steelers would draft him. Again, he's a better Cover 2 guy, but he'll go on my tomb stone with Brian St. Pierre as a guy that I pegged the exact round and spot that he'd be drafted. It's rare company to be in, so I hope he lives up to it.
- Frank Summers is a big back, which we needed. He's tough to tackle and he'll get some goal line and short yardage carries, which we needed. Basically, he's like Jerome Bettis, only shorter and not as nimble. For that reason, my buddy Topher has already come up with a nickname for him: Short Bus. Let's hope it sticks.
- Ra'Shon Harris is a better Cover 2 defensive tackle and I don't think he makes the team this year. But, hey, we're the defending Super Bowl champions. Not all of these guys could have expected to make the 53 man roster, right?
- I like AQ Shipley a lot. He was on my radar, but I thought he'd be gone by the time the Steelers thought about the center position again. As it turns out, he was the first guy they thought of enough to select, so he's the guy. But, he has extraordinarily short arms and probably won't make it. His arms are 29 inches long and he's 6'3". My arms are longer. You need long arms to play on the offensive line in the NFL. That's just how it works nowadays. I really hope he makes it, but I'm not convinced. Maybe he hangs on long enough to contribute something in a blowout victory or when we're resting our starters late in the season. All I know is that Mike Mayock said that he watched film of the Rose Bowl in order to scout the Southern Cal linebackers and said that Shipley kept showing up on the film, knocking all those guys to to the turf. They all got drafted in the first three rounds. Hopefully, that foretells great things about Shipley and he's the next great Steelers center. I seriously doubt it, but I have great hopes.
- With David Johnson, I really think they were picking names out of a hat at that point in the draft. With 15 picks until Mr. Irrelevant was chosen, I'm sure they had other things occupying their attention. And it showed. The last thing we need is another tight end that can't really block. And that's Johnson. So, I think he gets cut and misses out on the opportunity to become the next Bruce Davis.
The Patriots have been criticized in recent years for not drafting well. I think it's that they had so much talent on their roster and couldn't take an unproven guy over someone they knew and trusted.
Therefore, you can't judge this draft class on playing time and starts. You have to judge them on quality guys that they drafted that ended up making a contribution. By that measure, I think the Steelers get an A on this one.
Provided that Ziggy Hood holds up his end of the bargain, that is...
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Steelers Draft Preview 2009
Well, it's that time of year again, kids. Time for me to say insulting things about people I've never met and criticize a bunch of dudes that could turn me into a pretzel for not having enough "upside" or length.
I'm trying to keep it on the up and up this year, so those of you that are looking for me to talk a lot of trash and swear a lot, I direct you to my 2008 Preview. I have turned over a new leaf since my trip to Seattle, so I'm going to try to not be bitter, unlike some bunch of fans. Wait. That was a little bitter.
I'm going to throw in some Bears analysis for my buddy Keith. Because I keep it real.
First Round:
This is a weird pick. Seeing as how the Steelers won the Super Bowl and all, they're drafting 32nd, which is basically a second round pick.
The good news is that I think they learned their lesson in 2006 (after they won Super Bowl XL) and won't give away a ton of picks to move up a few slots. I foresee no trading up in the first round. The Steelers need help in some very specific, non-glamorous places, and they can fill those needs with quality guys by staying put, not by sacrificing choices in later rounds.
If their draft history is anything to shout about (and it is), they'll get quality players late, so they can't afford to throw any of those players away to get a slightly better player.
Also, this is a class that is not top-heavy. There's quality from 15-50 that's not too far off of the quality from 1-15. And, once again, there's no clear-cut number one.
There aren't any receivers that will be worth a first round selection by the time the Steelers draft (since they won the Super Bowl), so they'll avoid that position in the first stanza. They need a won't take a running back or a quarterback. They don't need another tight end -- on top of the fact that they already have 115 on the roster, there aren't any great ones in this class. They won't take a linebacker in the first round. They don't need any safeties. Or, at least, there's no one in the first round that they should take (or, again, be available, since they draft so late).
I think that Chad Scott has scared them off of taking a cornerback in the first round. I am DEAD serious about this. I really think they regret that decision to this day and they've been able to unearth/sign guys that have filled in well. Ultimately, the success or failure of the pass defense has more to do with how much pressure they put on the quarterback, which has nothing to do with the skill of the secondary.
That leaves defensive end and offensive line. Well, everyone knows that the defensive line's average age is death. Everyone knows that the Steelers offensive line is less than suspect. Whichever way they decide to go, they're going to get a good player.
But, the thing is that the defensive linemen they'll have to choose from will not be worth a first round pick. After Michael Johnson goes off the board in the first ten or 15 picks, they'll be better off waiting until the second or third round. With a bunch of teams using the 3-4, the days are loooooooooooooong gone where they can take Aaron Smith in the sixth or Brett Keisel in the seventh. They'll need to take one in the first three rounds and take two during the course of the draft. Trouble is that I don't know that there are two guys total that will be good enough. So that's awesome.
One wrinkle: Connor Barwin. I love this kid. He used to play tight end, the Cincinnati Bearcats asked him to play defensive end for his senior year, and he went out and piled up a bunch of sacks. He's got the kind of build where he could put on some weight and play end. He could lose a little and play linebacker. He could stay the way he is and be the next Keisel, only better.
The issue would be that he's only had one year at end and doesn't know the position all that well. And that's why he's not going off the board earlier. And that's why he's kind of a reach.
I would be fine with us taking him in the first, but would be ecstatic if he lasted until the second. I don't think it's going to happen. Someone will take him. But I'd be ecstatic.
And I hope we don't take Ron Brace out of Boston College. I think he's a fine player and he'll be a good, productive guy in the NFL for a lot of years. He's just not going to be a good nose tackle in the 3-4. The Steelers need someone who has Casey Hampton's build and that's not Ron Brace. He's four inches taller and 15 pounds lighter. Sure, he could add weight, but he'd still be too tall.
I know it's nit picking, but this is the first round. Everyone that's eligible is talented. There's only so many spots. Think of it like 12th grade English. There was always that one guy that read everything, had great comments, the teacher loved him, and the rest of the class hated him. Maybe he went to college and was a Literature major. Maybe he went for his Master's. But, at some point, a lot of those guys realized that there are only so many Professor Emeritus jobs out there and decided to major in Finance. The guys that were truly gifted went on to chair at Iowa. The guys that were determined went on to teach at the Community College. The guys that had the right mix of determination and skill went on to write important papers and oversee at department. It's a big funnel of talent and you need to be subjective. In the first round, you're looking for a guy that naturally speaks in iambic pentameter. By the end of the draft, you're looking for someone that can quote Rime of the Ancient Mariner without going over the top.
At any rate, I think we take an offensive lineman. The names that have been tossed around are Alex Mack, Eric Wood, and Max Unger. All of them are centers by trade, but can play guard. I'm fine with any of them. I want to bring the center position back to the storied days of Webster, Dawson, and even Hartings. One of these guys can make it happen. Any tackle we take will be a reach -- just like it would have been last year -- so we need to go low on glamour, high on utility.
Out of all of those guys, the Steelers seem to like Wood the most. He has the demeanor to play for us and also has some pass blocking skills -- played at Louisville and they pass a lot, but don't have their quarterback get sacked a lot -- and he has the speed and agility to play the position for the Steelers.
But, like I said, I'd be fine with Mack or Unger. I'm already at 1,230 words, though, so I'll move on.
The Steelers Select:
Percy Harvin, Wide Receiver, Florida.
Well, really, if you held a gun to my head, I'd say Wood. And this has more to do with the fact that I think he's the most logical pick and less to do with the fact that I want a guy on the roster named Gay and a guy named Wood.
However, Harvin is Santonio Holmes plus. He has the athleticism of Holmes. Plus. He has the hands and open field ability of Holmes. Plus. He has the return skills of Holmes. Plus. He averaged 11 yards a touch in college and a lot of those touches were as a running back. He scored every tenth time he touched the ball and a lot of those touches were kick or punt returns. He's an amazing, explosive player and has the versatility to be the next Slash without the nasty downside of turning into the next Kordell.
The thing is that he has Santonio's attitude and weed issues. Plus. He's already tested positive for marijuana according to reports and apparently has some character problems (above the weed, which is really just an NFL issue... we all smoked a little weed in college).
The other thing is Mike Tomlin. Santonio played the best ball of his career after he got busted. Mike Tomlin straightened him out. The man just turned 37 and he has already won a Super Bowl. I have no way to gauge his ceiling. He could walk across the Allegheny tomorrow, then turn it into a nice, heady Chardonnay, and I wouldn't be surprised.
Harvin's a top-15 talent with all kinds of baggage, so he might fall to the Steelers. If he does and they take him, then we know who's calling the shots in the War Room. Colbert would need to yield to Tomlin in order for Harvin to be selected.
If they take Wood, the Rooneys and, by proxy, Colbert, are still in control. Otherwise, it's Tomlin's show to run. And I trust him.
Same holds if they take Mack or Unger.
Bears Pick:
Jay Cutler.
I hope it works out for them. I seriously do.
Second Round:
Okay, let's assume they got Wood in the first (yes, this is only the beginning if they get them some Wood for the next six years, more if he gets an extension... and there's always the onslaught of gay).
We'll assume they take an interior lineman in the first. That's just smart. For the draft, they need two offensive linemen (one down, one to go), a wide receiver (maybe two), a defensive lineman (preferrably an end, maybe two, but, again, I don't think they're out there), a big running back, a safety (Ryan Clark's hitting habit is not sustainable and he might leave as a free agent), and a cornerback.
I actually think they take Juaquin Iglesias, the wide receiver out of Oklahoma, but it is entirely possible that they take defensive end Jarron Gilbert out of San Jose State. Gilbert's tall enough (6'5") and big enough (280) that it makes sense. He'll need to learn to play the position and give up his body rather than rushing the passer, but that's true of anyone that they might draft.
At cornerback, I've heard Jairus Byrd out of Oregon, but I prefer Asher Allen of Georgia, because he can return kicks, too. And we need some serious help in that area. We might have the luxury to draft a guy just to be a return specialist, but I'd rather not see that happen. It worked out well for the Bears, but I'd rather have a Randle-El kind of guy that can do something else to help the team. The best return guy in this class is, of course, Percy Harvin, but we've covered him.
Of course, if Connor Barwin is available (and he won't be), we should take him.
The Steelers Select:
Juaquin Iglesias, Wide Receiver, Oklahoma.
Bears Pick:
Receiver is a priority and there will be a good one available here for them to take. This is actually a deep receiver class, which is why I think the Steelers could take Gilbert in the second and still get a good guy in the third.
For the Bears here, I like Brian Robiske out of Ohio State. Cutler will like throwing to him. He's a good guy and a good player. Not a first round talent, but not far off. We're still in a nit picking zone at this point.
Third Round:
Here's where I think we get an end. If we haven't already taken one. If we have, we take a cornerback. And Asher Allen could still be available. If it goes interior lineman, then end in the first day, then the second day kicks off for the Steelers with a cornerback. I'm sticking with Allen, even if we need to trade up to take him.
But, since I already have them taking an interior lineman and a receiver, they need to take an end.
I like Mitch King here. I think that a Google search for him will say that he's a fifth round prospect. Well, I don't care.
He's got a great motor, he's the kind of player the Steelers love at the position, and he played both end and tackle in college. He's big enough to add weight, but might be able to play 3-4 end at his current weight. Plus which, if the Steelers ever cave to Tomlin and go to the 4-3, he'll be a great Cover 2 defensive tackle.
The Steelers Select:
Mitch King, Defensive End/Tackle, Iowa.
Bears Pick:
Um... Jay Cutler? I am not poking fun here. I actually really do sincerely hope it works out.
But, they have a compensatory pick. I like them to take Corvey Irvin here. He's a defensive tackle from Georgia and has the kind of make-up that they're looking for. They were flush with tackle depth a couple of years back, but that has been lacking.
Irvin will keep Urlacher clean and also has some pass rushing skills. He's another guy that's ranked lower than this (late fourth, early fifth), but I like him a lot.
Fourth Round:
Thus far, we've got an interior lineman, a receiver, and a defensive lineman. We're a long ways away from another defensive lineman, and cornerbacks don't make much difference at this point now that the first and second tier guys are gone, so I'm going to continue to go offense.
I'm going to trust the fact that LeBeau will stay on another year, James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley will not fall apart, James Farrior has another year in him, and Ryan Clark still remembers what day it is. I'm going to trust our historically good, clutch, number one defense. Call me crazy.
Are you ready? You don't look ready? Well, I'm ready. You ready?
Jason Watkins.
Guess where he went to school? Florida. Guess what his positives are? He's huge and he's a good athlete. Guess what his negatives are? His technique needs some work and his toughness is a question mark. And he doesn't always try his hardest, because he's always been the biggest, best athlete on the field. Guess what he doesn't have? A franchise tag and an $8.5 million salary for 2009. Guess what else he doesn't have? Drop foot. I still don't really know what that is.
The Steelers Select:
Jason Watkins, Offensive Tackle, Florida.
Bears Pick:
Their linebackers are getting long in the tooth and they haven't made any real strides to fix that. Lance Briggs could be gone soon, unless he leaves, then re-signs.
I'm gonna go with Jason Williams here. He's a great fit for the Cover 2 defense that they play and he covers a lot of ground. He's just not that big.
Fifth Round:
At long last, they need to get a cornerback. Joe Burnett is actually a better cover guy than he's given credit for, he's just considered slow and undersized. Hey, it's the fifth round. We're not looking for Pulitzers here, just good enough.
Ike Taylor was drafted in the fourth round and was considered to be a bit of a reach. Gay was taken in the fifth round. They don't have to be world beaters, they just have to be good enough, so long as the front seven gets pressure.
Burnett also returns kicks. That's one of the other reasons I like him. Again, he's a guy that's rated lower than this, but I think he's worth it here.
The Steelers Select:
Joe Burnett, Cornerback, Central Florida.
BUT, right after they pick in the fifth, they have a compensatory selection.
I like Pannel Egboh of Stanford. He is this year's King Dunlap. How can you not love that name? How can you not love someone from Stanford? He's gotta be smart, right? He's also 6'6" and 275 pounds. If he adds another 20 pounds of muscle -- which shouldn't be too tough -- he's the same size as Aaron Smith. And would come within a hair of being drafted in the sixth round.
I like it.
The Steelers Select:
Pannel Egboh, Defensive End, Stanford.
Bears Pick:
Olin Kreutz is a hundred years old. They need a contingency plan just in case. Center Antoine Caldwell works. He's big enough to be a masher, but agile enough that he could be an upgrade even if Kreutz doesn't fall apart.
Sixth Round:
Well, they have three picks left (one in the sixth, two in the seventh), and they need a receiver, a safety, and a big running back. It actually wouldn't surprise me if they took a quarterback with one of these three picks (or even earlier, maybe the fourth or fifth round), but that's not how I'm running my draft board, so I'm just going to plow ahead.
With the sixth round pick, they get their big running back. And that is... Javarris Williams. He's 5'9" and weighs 223 pounds. He has a low center of gravity and was productive in college, albeit at Tennessee State. If we show this dude to the snack bar, I figure he's pushing 240 by training camp. If we tell him he has a tweaked hamstring, we can keep him from losing too much weight in camp. By the time the season opens, he's a mini-Bus. I will help him with his training, as I have no trouble gaining weight.
The worst part is that some people may think that I'm kidding.
The Steelers Select:
Javarris Williams, Running Back, Tennessee State.
Bears Pick:
Tez Doolittle, Defensive Tackle, Auburn.
I love this kid. He's a bit of a long shot, but he'll be a great Cover 2 defensive tackle if he makes it through training camp... and stays healthy. Hey, everyone has warts in the sixth round.
Seventh Round:
Safety: Al Afalava, Oregon State
Wide Receiver: Marko Mitchell, Nevada
Afalava is Anthony Smith, but without the mouth. He's a big hitter, a tough kid, and he'll help on special teams.
Mitchell is... well, he's 6'4". He's only 190 pounds, which makes me think that he might actually fit into the height/weight chart that the government posts in doctor's offices to make fat people feel bad. And that's an accomplishment.
Let's face facts: Anyone that gets drafted by the defending Super Bowl champions towards the end of the seventh round is probably not making the roster. In lieu of a cool name like King Dunlap, I punted and went for the height/weight joke.
But I do really like Afalava. And he does have a pretty cool name.
The Steelers Select:
Al Afalava, Safety, Oregon State
Marko Mitchell, Wide Receiver, Nevada (and, really, Marko is a pretty cool name)
Bears Pick:
I think they actually take Afalava and someone like Ellis Lankster of WVU. They could actually take fat man Jarrvis Williams. He could help their backfield a lot and will probably be available.
Failing that, I'm going to go with who Todd McShay said they would take, because I think the Bears are too talented for it to matter. And, also, I only have so many Brian St. Pierres in me.
Mortty Ivy, Linebacker, West Virginia.
Philip Hunt (Mike's brother), Defensive End, Houston.
And... that's that. Hey, it'll be entertaining. Plus which, this run of good nature can only last so long. It'll probably run out by the time I take a look at who they actually drafted.
I'm trying to keep it on the up and up this year, so those of you that are looking for me to talk a lot of trash and swear a lot, I direct you to my 2008 Preview. I have turned over a new leaf since my trip to Seattle, so I'm going to try to not be bitter, unlike some bunch of fans. Wait. That was a little bitter.
I'm going to throw in some Bears analysis for my buddy Keith. Because I keep it real.
First Round:
This is a weird pick. Seeing as how the Steelers won the Super Bowl and all, they're drafting 32nd, which is basically a second round pick.
The good news is that I think they learned their lesson in 2006 (after they won Super Bowl XL) and won't give away a ton of picks to move up a few slots. I foresee no trading up in the first round. The Steelers need help in some very specific, non-glamorous places, and they can fill those needs with quality guys by staying put, not by sacrificing choices in later rounds.
If their draft history is anything to shout about (and it is), they'll get quality players late, so they can't afford to throw any of those players away to get a slightly better player.
Also, this is a class that is not top-heavy. There's quality from 15-50 that's not too far off of the quality from 1-15. And, once again, there's no clear-cut number one.
There aren't any receivers that will be worth a first round selection by the time the Steelers draft (since they won the Super Bowl), so they'll avoid that position in the first stanza. They need a won't take a running back or a quarterback. They don't need another tight end -- on top of the fact that they already have 115 on the roster, there aren't any great ones in this class. They won't take a linebacker in the first round. They don't need any safeties. Or, at least, there's no one in the first round that they should take (or, again, be available, since they draft so late).
I think that Chad Scott has scared them off of taking a cornerback in the first round. I am DEAD serious about this. I really think they regret that decision to this day and they've been able to unearth/sign guys that have filled in well. Ultimately, the success or failure of the pass defense has more to do with how much pressure they put on the quarterback, which has nothing to do with the skill of the secondary.
That leaves defensive end and offensive line. Well, everyone knows that the defensive line's average age is death. Everyone knows that the Steelers offensive line is less than suspect. Whichever way they decide to go, they're going to get a good player.
But, the thing is that the defensive linemen they'll have to choose from will not be worth a first round pick. After Michael Johnson goes off the board in the first ten or 15 picks, they'll be better off waiting until the second or third round. With a bunch of teams using the 3-4, the days are loooooooooooooong gone where they can take Aaron Smith in the sixth or Brett Keisel in the seventh. They'll need to take one in the first three rounds and take two during the course of the draft. Trouble is that I don't know that there are two guys total that will be good enough. So that's awesome.
One wrinkle: Connor Barwin. I love this kid. He used to play tight end, the Cincinnati Bearcats asked him to play defensive end for his senior year, and he went out and piled up a bunch of sacks. He's got the kind of build where he could put on some weight and play end. He could lose a little and play linebacker. He could stay the way he is and be the next Keisel, only better.
The issue would be that he's only had one year at end and doesn't know the position all that well. And that's why he's not going off the board earlier. And that's why he's kind of a reach.
I would be fine with us taking him in the first, but would be ecstatic if he lasted until the second. I don't think it's going to happen. Someone will take him. But I'd be ecstatic.
And I hope we don't take Ron Brace out of Boston College. I think he's a fine player and he'll be a good, productive guy in the NFL for a lot of years. He's just not going to be a good nose tackle in the 3-4. The Steelers need someone who has Casey Hampton's build and that's not Ron Brace. He's four inches taller and 15 pounds lighter. Sure, he could add weight, but he'd still be too tall.
I know it's nit picking, but this is the first round. Everyone that's eligible is talented. There's only so many spots. Think of it like 12th grade English. There was always that one guy that read everything, had great comments, the teacher loved him, and the rest of the class hated him. Maybe he went to college and was a Literature major. Maybe he went for his Master's. But, at some point, a lot of those guys realized that there are only so many Professor Emeritus jobs out there and decided to major in Finance. The guys that were truly gifted went on to chair at Iowa. The guys that were determined went on to teach at the Community College. The guys that had the right mix of determination and skill went on to write important papers and oversee at department. It's a big funnel of talent and you need to be subjective. In the first round, you're looking for a guy that naturally speaks in iambic pentameter. By the end of the draft, you're looking for someone that can quote Rime of the Ancient Mariner without going over the top.
At any rate, I think we take an offensive lineman. The names that have been tossed around are Alex Mack, Eric Wood, and Max Unger. All of them are centers by trade, but can play guard. I'm fine with any of them. I want to bring the center position back to the storied days of Webster, Dawson, and even Hartings. One of these guys can make it happen. Any tackle we take will be a reach -- just like it would have been last year -- so we need to go low on glamour, high on utility.
Out of all of those guys, the Steelers seem to like Wood the most. He has the demeanor to play for us and also has some pass blocking skills -- played at Louisville and they pass a lot, but don't have their quarterback get sacked a lot -- and he has the speed and agility to play the position for the Steelers.
But, like I said, I'd be fine with Mack or Unger. I'm already at 1,230 words, though, so I'll move on.
The Steelers Select:
Percy Harvin, Wide Receiver, Florida.
Well, really, if you held a gun to my head, I'd say Wood. And this has more to do with the fact that I think he's the most logical pick and less to do with the fact that I want a guy on the roster named Gay and a guy named Wood.
However, Harvin is Santonio Holmes plus. He has the athleticism of Holmes. Plus. He has the hands and open field ability of Holmes. Plus. He has the return skills of Holmes. Plus. He averaged 11 yards a touch in college and a lot of those touches were as a running back. He scored every tenth time he touched the ball and a lot of those touches were kick or punt returns. He's an amazing, explosive player and has the versatility to be the next Slash without the nasty downside of turning into the next Kordell.
The thing is that he has Santonio's attitude and weed issues. Plus. He's already tested positive for marijuana according to reports and apparently has some character problems (above the weed, which is really just an NFL issue... we all smoked a little weed in college).
The other thing is Mike Tomlin. Santonio played the best ball of his career after he got busted. Mike Tomlin straightened him out. The man just turned 37 and he has already won a Super Bowl. I have no way to gauge his ceiling. He could walk across the Allegheny tomorrow, then turn it into a nice, heady Chardonnay, and I wouldn't be surprised.
Harvin's a top-15 talent with all kinds of baggage, so he might fall to the Steelers. If he does and they take him, then we know who's calling the shots in the War Room. Colbert would need to yield to Tomlin in order for Harvin to be selected.
If they take Wood, the Rooneys and, by proxy, Colbert, are still in control. Otherwise, it's Tomlin's show to run. And I trust him.
Same holds if they take Mack or Unger.
Bears Pick:
Jay Cutler.
I hope it works out for them. I seriously do.
Second Round:
Okay, let's assume they got Wood in the first (yes, this is only the beginning if they get them some Wood for the next six years, more if he gets an extension... and there's always the onslaught of gay).
We'll assume they take an interior lineman in the first. That's just smart. For the draft, they need two offensive linemen (one down, one to go), a wide receiver (maybe two), a defensive lineman (preferrably an end, maybe two, but, again, I don't think they're out there), a big running back, a safety (Ryan Clark's hitting habit is not sustainable and he might leave as a free agent), and a cornerback.
I actually think they take Juaquin Iglesias, the wide receiver out of Oklahoma, but it is entirely possible that they take defensive end Jarron Gilbert out of San Jose State. Gilbert's tall enough (6'5") and big enough (280) that it makes sense. He'll need to learn to play the position and give up his body rather than rushing the passer, but that's true of anyone that they might draft.
At cornerback, I've heard Jairus Byrd out of Oregon, but I prefer Asher Allen of Georgia, because he can return kicks, too. And we need some serious help in that area. We might have the luxury to draft a guy just to be a return specialist, but I'd rather not see that happen. It worked out well for the Bears, but I'd rather have a Randle-El kind of guy that can do something else to help the team. The best return guy in this class is, of course, Percy Harvin, but we've covered him.
Of course, if Connor Barwin is available (and he won't be), we should take him.
The Steelers Select:
Juaquin Iglesias, Wide Receiver, Oklahoma.
Bears Pick:
Receiver is a priority and there will be a good one available here for them to take. This is actually a deep receiver class, which is why I think the Steelers could take Gilbert in the second and still get a good guy in the third.
For the Bears here, I like Brian Robiske out of Ohio State. Cutler will like throwing to him. He's a good guy and a good player. Not a first round talent, but not far off. We're still in a nit picking zone at this point.
Third Round:
Here's where I think we get an end. If we haven't already taken one. If we have, we take a cornerback. And Asher Allen could still be available. If it goes interior lineman, then end in the first day, then the second day kicks off for the Steelers with a cornerback. I'm sticking with Allen, even if we need to trade up to take him.
But, since I already have them taking an interior lineman and a receiver, they need to take an end.
I like Mitch King here. I think that a Google search for him will say that he's a fifth round prospect. Well, I don't care.
He's got a great motor, he's the kind of player the Steelers love at the position, and he played both end and tackle in college. He's big enough to add weight, but might be able to play 3-4 end at his current weight. Plus which, if the Steelers ever cave to Tomlin and go to the 4-3, he'll be a great Cover 2 defensive tackle.
The Steelers Select:
Mitch King, Defensive End/Tackle, Iowa.
Bears Pick:
Um... Jay Cutler? I am not poking fun here. I actually really do sincerely hope it works out.
But, they have a compensatory pick. I like them to take Corvey Irvin here. He's a defensive tackle from Georgia and has the kind of make-up that they're looking for. They were flush with tackle depth a couple of years back, but that has been lacking.
Irvin will keep Urlacher clean and also has some pass rushing skills. He's another guy that's ranked lower than this (late fourth, early fifth), but I like him a lot.
Fourth Round:
Thus far, we've got an interior lineman, a receiver, and a defensive lineman. We're a long ways away from another defensive lineman, and cornerbacks don't make much difference at this point now that the first and second tier guys are gone, so I'm going to continue to go offense.
I'm going to trust the fact that LeBeau will stay on another year, James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley will not fall apart, James Farrior has another year in him, and Ryan Clark still remembers what day it is. I'm going to trust our historically good, clutch, number one defense. Call me crazy.
Are you ready? You don't look ready? Well, I'm ready. You ready?
Jason Watkins.
Guess where he went to school? Florida. Guess what his positives are? He's huge and he's a good athlete. Guess what his negatives are? His technique needs some work and his toughness is a question mark. And he doesn't always try his hardest, because he's always been the biggest, best athlete on the field. Guess what he doesn't have? A franchise tag and an $8.5 million salary for 2009. Guess what else he doesn't have? Drop foot. I still don't really know what that is.
The Steelers Select:
Jason Watkins, Offensive Tackle, Florida.
Bears Pick:
Their linebackers are getting long in the tooth and they haven't made any real strides to fix that. Lance Briggs could be gone soon, unless he leaves, then re-signs.
I'm gonna go with Jason Williams here. He's a great fit for the Cover 2 defense that they play and he covers a lot of ground. He's just not that big.
Fifth Round:
At long last, they need to get a cornerback. Joe Burnett is actually a better cover guy than he's given credit for, he's just considered slow and undersized. Hey, it's the fifth round. We're not looking for Pulitzers here, just good enough.
Ike Taylor was drafted in the fourth round and was considered to be a bit of a reach. Gay was taken in the fifth round. They don't have to be world beaters, they just have to be good enough, so long as the front seven gets pressure.
Burnett also returns kicks. That's one of the other reasons I like him. Again, he's a guy that's rated lower than this, but I think he's worth it here.
The Steelers Select:
Joe Burnett, Cornerback, Central Florida.
BUT, right after they pick in the fifth, they have a compensatory selection.
I like Pannel Egboh of Stanford. He is this year's King Dunlap. How can you not love that name? How can you not love someone from Stanford? He's gotta be smart, right? He's also 6'6" and 275 pounds. If he adds another 20 pounds of muscle -- which shouldn't be too tough -- he's the same size as Aaron Smith. And would come within a hair of being drafted in the sixth round.
I like it.
The Steelers Select:
Pannel Egboh, Defensive End, Stanford.
Bears Pick:
Olin Kreutz is a hundred years old. They need a contingency plan just in case. Center Antoine Caldwell works. He's big enough to be a masher, but agile enough that he could be an upgrade even if Kreutz doesn't fall apart.
Sixth Round:
Well, they have three picks left (one in the sixth, two in the seventh), and they need a receiver, a safety, and a big running back. It actually wouldn't surprise me if they took a quarterback with one of these three picks (or even earlier, maybe the fourth or fifth round), but that's not how I'm running my draft board, so I'm just going to plow ahead.
With the sixth round pick, they get their big running back. And that is... Javarris Williams. He's 5'9" and weighs 223 pounds. He has a low center of gravity and was productive in college, albeit at Tennessee State. If we show this dude to the snack bar, I figure he's pushing 240 by training camp. If we tell him he has a tweaked hamstring, we can keep him from losing too much weight in camp. By the time the season opens, he's a mini-Bus. I will help him with his training, as I have no trouble gaining weight.
The worst part is that some people may think that I'm kidding.
The Steelers Select:
Javarris Williams, Running Back, Tennessee State.
Bears Pick:
Tez Doolittle, Defensive Tackle, Auburn.
I love this kid. He's a bit of a long shot, but he'll be a great Cover 2 defensive tackle if he makes it through training camp... and stays healthy. Hey, everyone has warts in the sixth round.
Seventh Round:
Safety: Al Afalava, Oregon State
Wide Receiver: Marko Mitchell, Nevada
Afalava is Anthony Smith, but without the mouth. He's a big hitter, a tough kid, and he'll help on special teams.
Mitchell is... well, he's 6'4". He's only 190 pounds, which makes me think that he might actually fit into the height/weight chart that the government posts in doctor's offices to make fat people feel bad. And that's an accomplishment.
Let's face facts: Anyone that gets drafted by the defending Super Bowl champions towards the end of the seventh round is probably not making the roster. In lieu of a cool name like King Dunlap, I punted and went for the height/weight joke.
But I do really like Afalava. And he does have a pretty cool name.
The Steelers Select:
Al Afalava, Safety, Oregon State
Marko Mitchell, Wide Receiver, Nevada (and, really, Marko is a pretty cool name)
Bears Pick:
I think they actually take Afalava and someone like Ellis Lankster of WVU. They could actually take fat man Jarrvis Williams. He could help their backfield a lot and will probably be available.
Failing that, I'm going to go with who Todd McShay said they would take, because I think the Bears are too talented for it to matter. And, also, I only have so many Brian St. Pierres in me.
Mortty Ivy, Linebacker, West Virginia.
Philip Hunt (Mike's brother), Defensive End, Houston.
And... that's that. Hey, it'll be entertaining. Plus which, this run of good nature can only last so long. It'll probably run out by the time I take a look at who they actually drafted.
Pens and Buccos
Regarding the Penguins:
Well, there you go. Fleury had his best game since the overtime win against the Red Wings in last year's Final and we escaped Philly -- and that crowd -- with a win. Pretty much all we needed to do was split the two road games. We did that, so I would say that it looks good for us to win the series.
But, we also had all we could handle from the Flyers last night. Like I've said before, they're a great team, they're just not as good as the Penguins. And that's going to be the difference in the series (as it has been thus far).
And I hope the Rangers beat the Capitals, but I don't want to look too far ahead. The Capitals are the team that scares me the most in the Eastern Conference.
Regarding the Buccos:
I'm cautiously optimistic. It's still only April and they're still the Pirates, but, they also are in a position to sweep the formerly 11-1 Florida Marlins today, so that's awesome.
Bill James developed something called Pythagorean Winning Percentage and BaseballReference.com uses it and I think it's right up there with OPS as far as easy-to-understand and relevant baseball statistics. It basically shows whether teams are lucky or good. Well, the Pirates are currently 8-6 and the PWP says they should be 9-5. While that's not a huge difference, one game is actually pretty big 14 games into the season. And, it suggests that they've been good, not lucky. Actually, they've been better than their record, they've just been unlucky.
I'll need to see them keep this up through at least May before I start getting my hopes up at all. And they need to start winning some games in the division for it to be really worth anything. But, I think there's a chance that .500 is possible this season.
Now, I know that sounds crazy, but hold on. This next thing is even crazier.
I think that the Pirates should pursue .500 as though it were a playoff spot. They have plenty of prospects, they have plenty of money to spend, and they have the ability to manufacture a quality closer at a moment's notice.
If they're within a few games in July, I think they should go for it. It's not as though they can screw themselves up too badly, as long as they don't go for a big time player -- maybe just a couple of bats or a solid guy for the rotation, if they think they need one.
And, realistically, how could you get much worse than 16 straight losing seasons? I think ownership would be very pleasantly surprised by the attendance numbers if they just tried to win games in August and September. I know that the Steelers generally dominate those months, but people would show up at the ballpark on non-bobblehead and non-fireworks nights if they knew they were going to see a competitive game.
At this point -- and it's painful to say this -- a .500 season would be as much of a victory as making the postseason. I'm telling you, if the Pirates can keep their heads above water deep into August and September, people will get behind this team. There are a ton of dormant Pirates fans out there, just like there were a ton of dormant Pens fans out there.
The simple fact of the matter is that the Steelers are the only team that will sell out their games regardless of how well they're doing. But, they only play four (or, if we're lucky, five) months out of the year, which leaves the other seven months for the Pens and the Buccos. We'll hold up our end of the bargain by going to the games and supporting the team as long as they hold up their end of the bargain by not sucking.
Anyone that thinks differently is just being uncautiously pessimistic.
Well, there you go. Fleury had his best game since the overtime win against the Red Wings in last year's Final and we escaped Philly -- and that crowd -- with a win. Pretty much all we needed to do was split the two road games. We did that, so I would say that it looks good for us to win the series.
But, we also had all we could handle from the Flyers last night. Like I've said before, they're a great team, they're just not as good as the Penguins. And that's going to be the difference in the series (as it has been thus far).
And I hope the Rangers beat the Capitals, but I don't want to look too far ahead. The Capitals are the team that scares me the most in the Eastern Conference.
Regarding the Buccos:
I'm cautiously optimistic. It's still only April and they're still the Pirates, but, they also are in a position to sweep the formerly 11-1 Florida Marlins today, so that's awesome.
Bill James developed something called Pythagorean Winning Percentage and BaseballReference.com uses it and I think it's right up there with OPS as far as easy-to-understand and relevant baseball statistics. It basically shows whether teams are lucky or good. Well, the Pirates are currently 8-6 and the PWP says they should be 9-5. While that's not a huge difference, one game is actually pretty big 14 games into the season. And, it suggests that they've been good, not lucky. Actually, they've been better than their record, they've just been unlucky.
I'll need to see them keep this up through at least May before I start getting my hopes up at all. And they need to start winning some games in the division for it to be really worth anything. But, I think there's a chance that .500 is possible this season.
Now, I know that sounds crazy, but hold on. This next thing is even crazier.
I think that the Pirates should pursue .500 as though it were a playoff spot. They have plenty of prospects, they have plenty of money to spend, and they have the ability to manufacture a quality closer at a moment's notice.
If they're within a few games in July, I think they should go for it. It's not as though they can screw themselves up too badly, as long as they don't go for a big time player -- maybe just a couple of bats or a solid guy for the rotation, if they think they need one.
And, realistically, how could you get much worse than 16 straight losing seasons? I think ownership would be very pleasantly surprised by the attendance numbers if they just tried to win games in August and September. I know that the Steelers generally dominate those months, but people would show up at the ballpark on non-bobblehead and non-fireworks nights if they knew they were going to see a competitive game.
At this point -- and it's painful to say this -- a .500 season would be as much of a victory as making the postseason. I'm telling you, if the Pirates can keep their heads above water deep into August and September, people will get behind this team. There are a ton of dormant Pirates fans out there, just like there were a ton of dormant Pens fans out there.
The simple fact of the matter is that the Steelers are the only team that will sell out their games regardless of how well they're doing. But, they only play four (or, if we're lucky, five) months out of the year, which leaves the other seven months for the Pens and the Buccos. We'll hold up our end of the bargain by going to the games and supporting the team as long as they hold up their end of the bargain by not sucking.
Anyone that thinks differently is just being uncautiously pessimistic.
Monday, April 20, 2009
Steelers Draft Dominance, Part Two
By now, you've probably noticed that four of the five draft classes I posted on Saturday were all linked to the 70s teams.
That makes sense for a few reasons:
Super Bowl loss (1 point)
Offensive rookie of the year (2 points)
Defensive rookie of the year (2 points)
Pro Bowl (2 points)
Super Bowl win (3 points)
AP All-Pro second team (3 points)
AP All-Pro first team (4 points)
AP Defensive Player of the Year (6 points)
AP Offensive Player of the Year (6 points)
AP Most Valuable Player (8 points)
Hall of Famer (15 points)
Currently, Faneca has the lead among players drafted by the Steelers since 1994, with 33 total points. If he makes another Pro Bowl and is voted second-team All-Pro another time, that's another five points. Seems pretty realistic, given that he's been first- or second-team All-Pro every year this decade, and given that you're usually voted into the Pro Bowl for another two years after you're past your prime. That puts him at 56 points, which is more than Bradshaw, Swann, or Stallworth.
If he gets inducted into the Hall of Fame, that's another 15 points and puts him at 71, which is one step above Jack Ham and one step below Rod Woodson.
And, if you think about it, he would be the starting guard on the team of the decade, has been voted first-team All-Pro six times, second-team All-Pro twice, and he's likely to go to the last two Pro Bowls of this decade. Larry Allen quit too early and Steve Hutchison started too late. Faneca gets the nod -- in my opinion at least -- even if he has to wait a few years after his first year of eligibility to get in.
Now, Hines Ward was voted second-team All-Pro three times (2002-2004) and went to four straight Pro Bowls from 2001-2004. He's got two rings and a Super Bowl MVP to his credit, but he was never voted first-team All-Pro and his statistics won't hold up against the other star receivers of the 00s.
He does have the fact that he's the best blocking receiver of his era and the most physical receiver of his era. A lot of voters will be sympathetic to the fact that he played in a run oriented offense and adapted to it quite well. Plus which, he has 724 catches for 8,896 yards and 65 touchdowns (12.4 yards per catch, too) and that's not bad.
Look at some of the other greatest receivers this century (and I'm sure I missed someone):
Marvin Harrison: 791 catches, 10,493 yards, 95 touchdowns, 13.1 yards per catch
Torry Holt: 817 catches, 11,872 yards, 68 touchdowns, 14.6 yards per catch
Terrell Owens: 729 catches, 10,815 yards, 109 touchdowns, 15 yards per catch
Randy Moss: 694 catches, 10,475 yards, 107 touchdowns, 15.1 yards per catch
Hines Ward, 724 catches, 8,896 yards, 65 touchdowns, 12.4 yards per catch
Even guys who you think would have better numbers, but don't:
Issac Bruce: 614 catches, 9,116 yards, 50 touchdowns, 14.8 yards per catch
Plaxico Burress: 505 catches, 7,845, 78 touchdowns, 15.5 yards per catch
Guys who will beat Hines' past nine seasons pretty easily by the time they accrue nine seasons, but they aren't considered his contemporaries:
Larry Fitzgerald: 426 catches, 5,975 yards, 78 touchdowns, 14 yards per catch
Andre Johnson: 486 catches, 6,379 yards, 77 touchdowns, 13.1 yards per catch
Here's the big thing: Of the four guys that are considered to be contemporaries of Hines Ward, all of them had inferior 2008 seasons statistically.
Owens turns 36 in December and recently signed with the Bills. Harrison turns 37 in August and is currently a free agent. Holt is getting traded from the Rams (probably to the Jaguars) and is only a year younger than Ward. Moss is going to be dealing with a surgically repaired Tom Brady next season and is a year younger than Ward.
Add in the fact that Ward has the same number of Super Bowl rings as Moss, Holt, Harrison, and Owens combined, he has a Super Bowl MVP (Harrison and Holt can't claim that), and he's got that most physical/best blocker thing going for him, and a very compelling case can be made that he should be in the Hall of Fame.
Also adding in the fact that Owens and Moss haven't exactly lit things up in the postseason -- neither have Holt or Harrison, really, but at least they have won a championship -- it looks better and better for Hines. Obviously, if the Steelers manage to win another championship in the next three seasons, or before Ward retires, then he's pretty much a lock.
I actually think he's close to being a lock regardless, as long as he doesn't completely fall apart the new few years, or have a bitter contract dispute that ends up with him playing in Cleveland or something.
So... I really didn't mean for this to turn into a debate about whether or not Ward belongs in the Hall of Fame, but that argument kind of makes or breaks this draft class.
If he doesn't get inducted, then he's worth 23 points. Add Faneca's 71 and Deshea's six (for Super Bowl victories in XL and XLIII), and you get a very respectable 100 points total. That would put them in the top 20, tied with the 1989 Detroit Lions (mostly based off the career of Barry Sanders).
If he does get inducted, then that bumps the total up to 115, which would boost this class into the top-10 all time, making this class the new #10 and bumping the 81 Giants off the list. If the Steelers win another Super Bowl with Ward and Townsend on the roster (which would pretty much make Ward a shoe-in), then that puts this class at 121, which would rank them ninth all time and bump the 81 49ers off the list.
The 97 class is mostly Vrabel's success with New England and Roethlisber, at current, only has ten points for the 2004 class.
The 2003 class has Polamalu (22 points) and Ike Taylor (six points for two Super Bowl wins in XL and XLIII). If Troy makes the Hall of Fame, that puts him up to 37 and, with some more Pro Bowls, a possible Defensive Player of the Year, and some more first and second-team All-Pro votes, he could be in the 50s.
Still, that's not going to be enough. The 1998 class, at present, is our only hope of cracking the top 10. And, by the time Faneca and Ward get inducted into the Hall of Fame -- if they even get there -- 121 points might not cut it anymore.
But, two Hall of Famers in one class is still impressive. Not 1974 impressive, but impressive.
That makes sense for a few reasons:
- ESPN awarded three points for each Super Bowl win and most of the players drafted by the Steelers in the 70s had at least two of those, if not four -- and all the guys that were Hall of Famers from the 74 class had four each.
- You get 15 points for a Hall of Fame inductee and the 70s team currently has nine or ten guys in Canton. The Steelers built those 70s teams through the draft, so anyone drafted from 1970 to 1978 has a good shot of being one of those HOFers.
- Up until 1992, the draft was 12 rounds. It was shortened to eight rounds in 1993, then seven rounds in 1994. So, guys like James Harrison and Willie Parker, who were undrafted free agents, don't count. They probably would've been drafted by someone -- maybe even not the Steelers -- if the 2004 draft was 12 rounds. At any rate, the more guys you have on the list, the more chances you have of drafting someone that is going to get you points. Since there are no deductions for drafting someone that was out of the league two years after you took them, there's no downside to having 12 rounds of eligible players.
- It took a while for Stallworth and Swann to make the Hall. And a lot of players that were drafted since 1990 are either still in the league or aren't yet eligible for Canton. Some of them, like Dermonti Dawson, will probably make it as veteran inclusions or on their seventh or eighth shot at induction. Then again, he was selected in 1988, so maybe we should just move on.
- The 1997 draft, due mostly to the fact that they drafted Mike Vrabel. And he had all his success with the Patriots.
- The 1998 draft, where we took Alan Faneca in the first, Hines Ward with a compensatory selection in the third, and Deshea Townsend in the fourth. We also took Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala in the sixth. That has no bearing on the points system, it's just a fun name to say.
- The 2003 draft, due mostly to Troy Polamalu, Ike Taylor, and Brian St. Pierre -- you also get points for losing Super Bowls, so he was on the Super Bowl XLIII squad for Steelers West.
- The 2004 draft, which is based mostly on potential. We really only got Max Starks and Ben Roethlisberger out of that draft. Well, that and a whole lot of crappy players, most of whom are now out of football.
Super Bowl loss (1 point)
Offensive rookie of the year (2 points)
Defensive rookie of the year (2 points)
Pro Bowl (2 points)
Super Bowl win (3 points)
AP All-Pro second team (3 points)
AP All-Pro first team (4 points)
AP Defensive Player of the Year (6 points)
AP Offensive Player of the Year (6 points)
AP Most Valuable Player (8 points)
Hall of Famer (15 points)
Currently, Faneca has the lead among players drafted by the Steelers since 1994, with 33 total points. If he makes another Pro Bowl and is voted second-team All-Pro another time, that's another five points. Seems pretty realistic, given that he's been first- or second-team All-Pro every year this decade, and given that you're usually voted into the Pro Bowl for another two years after you're past your prime. That puts him at 56 points, which is more than Bradshaw, Swann, or Stallworth.
If he gets inducted into the Hall of Fame, that's another 15 points and puts him at 71, which is one step above Jack Ham and one step below Rod Woodson.
And, if you think about it, he would be the starting guard on the team of the decade, has been voted first-team All-Pro six times, second-team All-Pro twice, and he's likely to go to the last two Pro Bowls of this decade. Larry Allen quit too early and Steve Hutchison started too late. Faneca gets the nod -- in my opinion at least -- even if he has to wait a few years after his first year of eligibility to get in.
Now, Hines Ward was voted second-team All-Pro three times (2002-2004) and went to four straight Pro Bowls from 2001-2004. He's got two rings and a Super Bowl MVP to his credit, but he was never voted first-team All-Pro and his statistics won't hold up against the other star receivers of the 00s.
He does have the fact that he's the best blocking receiver of his era and the most physical receiver of his era. A lot of voters will be sympathetic to the fact that he played in a run oriented offense and adapted to it quite well. Plus which, he has 724 catches for 8,896 yards and 65 touchdowns (12.4 yards per catch, too) and that's not bad.
Look at some of the other greatest receivers this century (and I'm sure I missed someone):
Marvin Harrison: 791 catches, 10,493 yards, 95 touchdowns, 13.1 yards per catch
Torry Holt: 817 catches, 11,872 yards, 68 touchdowns, 14.6 yards per catch
Terrell Owens: 729 catches, 10,815 yards, 109 touchdowns, 15 yards per catch
Randy Moss: 694 catches, 10,475 yards, 107 touchdowns, 15.1 yards per catch
Hines Ward, 724 catches, 8,896 yards, 65 touchdowns, 12.4 yards per catch
Even guys who you think would have better numbers, but don't:
Issac Bruce: 614 catches, 9,116 yards, 50 touchdowns, 14.8 yards per catch
Plaxico Burress: 505 catches, 7,845, 78 touchdowns, 15.5 yards per catch
Guys who will beat Hines' past nine seasons pretty easily by the time they accrue nine seasons, but they aren't considered his contemporaries:
Larry Fitzgerald: 426 catches, 5,975 yards, 78 touchdowns, 14 yards per catch
Andre Johnson: 486 catches, 6,379 yards, 77 touchdowns, 13.1 yards per catch
Here's the big thing: Of the four guys that are considered to be contemporaries of Hines Ward, all of them had inferior 2008 seasons statistically.
Owens turns 36 in December and recently signed with the Bills. Harrison turns 37 in August and is currently a free agent. Holt is getting traded from the Rams (probably to the Jaguars) and is only a year younger than Ward. Moss is going to be dealing with a surgically repaired Tom Brady next season and is a year younger than Ward.
Add in the fact that Ward has the same number of Super Bowl rings as Moss, Holt, Harrison, and Owens combined, he has a Super Bowl MVP (Harrison and Holt can't claim that), and he's got that most physical/best blocker thing going for him, and a very compelling case can be made that he should be in the Hall of Fame.
Also adding in the fact that Owens and Moss haven't exactly lit things up in the postseason -- neither have Holt or Harrison, really, but at least they have won a championship -- it looks better and better for Hines. Obviously, if the Steelers manage to win another championship in the next three seasons, or before Ward retires, then he's pretty much a lock.
I actually think he's close to being a lock regardless, as long as he doesn't completely fall apart the new few years, or have a bitter contract dispute that ends up with him playing in Cleveland or something.
So... I really didn't mean for this to turn into a debate about whether or not Ward belongs in the Hall of Fame, but that argument kind of makes or breaks this draft class.
If he doesn't get inducted, then he's worth 23 points. Add Faneca's 71 and Deshea's six (for Super Bowl victories in XL and XLIII), and you get a very respectable 100 points total. That would put them in the top 20, tied with the 1989 Detroit Lions (mostly based off the career of Barry Sanders).
If he does get inducted, then that bumps the total up to 115, which would boost this class into the top-10 all time, making this class the new #10 and bumping the 81 Giants off the list. If the Steelers win another Super Bowl with Ward and Townsend on the roster (which would pretty much make Ward a shoe-in), then that puts this class at 121, which would rank them ninth all time and bump the 81 49ers off the list.
The 97 class is mostly Vrabel's success with New England and Roethlisber, at current, only has ten points for the 2004 class.
The 2003 class has Polamalu (22 points) and Ike Taylor (six points for two Super Bowl wins in XL and XLIII). If Troy makes the Hall of Fame, that puts him up to 37 and, with some more Pro Bowls, a possible Defensive Player of the Year, and some more first and second-team All-Pro votes, he could be in the 50s.
Still, that's not going to be enough. The 1998 class, at present, is our only hope of cracking the top 10. And, by the time Faneca and Ward get inducted into the Hall of Fame -- if they even get there -- 121 points might not cut it anymore.
But, two Hall of Famers in one class is still impressive. Not 1974 impressive, but impressive.
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