Bye Week Spotlight: The Soul at Voodoo

I wanted to address this week's final game, as we will be playing both teams in the coming weeks and there was a lot to see in this match-up. Sunday afternoon, the Soul traveled to the Graveyard - the AFL's best-named arena, followed by the Rattlers' Snakepit and the Preds' Jungle - to start their season. Coming in, I was expecting a fairly lopsided game given the Soul's roster and the Voodoo's lack of one - but it came right down to the wire.

The Soul absorbed a fair amount of talent from the now defunct Dallas Vigilantes, including QB "Dirty" Dan Raudabaugh (yes, I'm still pushing that moniker), RB Derrick Ross and former head coach (now offensive coordinator) Clint Dozel. Returning this year is deep threat Donovan Morgan (who was gone, then back, then maybe gone, then re-signed last season) and new acquisition, Jeff Hughley from the Sharks (Note: I am so glad he's not a lineman, because I'm already mentally calling him D.L. Hughley, which is a whole other Hughley.) Also, they're rolling with some brutal defense that doesn't seem to care about such niceties as not roughing the passer or kicker.

On the other side of the field, the Voodoo were returning from a pretty crappy season, with a new head coach and mostly new players. That's "new to Arena Football" not just new to the team. There's only about 5 veterans on the team, including former Cleveland Gladiator rival, Kurt Rocco and Josh Bush (whom you might remember from my past Predator coverage.) Their strength is really in their coaching, with former Preds coach Pat O'Hara and AFL legend Tim Marcum as his assistant. With these two at the head and the performance I saw today, I expect some impressive stuff out of New Orleans this year.

Philly started the game looking like they were just going to crush the Voodoo after putting up two rather quick scores, but the Voodoo got in it and they went back and forth the rest of the game. The Voodoo missed a key PAT, and they spent most of the game staying one point behind. Even though they capitalized on a turnover in the second, the Soul were able to make up the ground and finish it out one point ahead at the end (63 - 62) due to a missed field goal by New Orleans.

When we face the Voodoo in a few weeks, they're going to be a tougher than we've dealt with in the past, despite their lack of experience. Kurt Rocco was fairly solid in Cleveland, and he has matured a lot. With the help of some top-flight coaching and some solid, solid receivers in Josh Bush and Quorey Payne, they have a lot of potential. When Bush had less on the day of these two and still got almost 100 yards in the indoor game, we're seeing solid performance.

Rocco is strong in the passing game and this week went 25/29 for 314 yards 6 TDs. On the other hand, they are not afraid of the rushing game, putting up almost 50 yards on the ground and three TDs. Were it not for their kicking woes and some standout performances from Philly, this game is a win in most situations.

Next week, we face the Philly Soul once again in our home opener and. they. scare me. Seriously. Dirty Dan is a great QB who took the Vigilantes to the postseason last year. Today, he went 23 for 30, 310 yards, 7 TDs and no interceptions. He also has some phenomenal targets in Tiger Jones, Donovan Morgan and Jeff Hughley. All three of them are good at getting open down field and making catches. Both Hughley and Jones had receptions of 29 yards or more in this game and it only took three receivers for Dirty Dan to break the 300 yard barrier.

Morgan was viewed to be good enough to get picked up by the UFL last season, but it only took about a week for him to make it back to this league, whether he didn't like it or didn't work out, and that's the AFL's gain. He "only" had 86 yards receiving today, caught 2 touchdowns and also rushed for another 24 yards. He's highly mobile and can move in the open field.

Hughley is the big threat. As a receiver, he's deadly. Last year under the great Aaron Garcia, he had almost 1200 yards and 22 touchdowns. Today, he already tacked up almost 100 yards and two TDs as a receiver. He was also the only kick returner for Philly, and he averaged 26.5 yards on 10 returns and ran one aaaaaaall the way back for a score. Seriously, I don't want him coming into the Consol next week.

Finally - and this is is just based on their first game of the season - the Soul has got some brutal defensive players. There were several unsportsmanlike calls for Philly today, include a late, hard hit on Rocco, and hard hit to the kicker's leg. I hope they get that under control before they risk our players next week.

So, two weeks in, and we already have a good idea what we're going to be facing in three out of our next five games.

Elsewhere in the league

• Right now, Philly is at the top of the division with 1 win and more points than us. Next week will show only one of the four of us with 2 wins.
• Milwaukee put up a good fight against Arizona, but lost by a touchdown
• The Kansas City Command started out strong against the Garcia-less Sharks Friday night, but just got throttled in the second half. Looks like the Sharks might still be a tough contender.
• Utah lost this week, leaving both them and the Blaze 1-1.
• Speaking of Garcia, the Talons lost a close one to the Shock 63-60.
• The Game of the Week on the NFL network wasn't boring, but it wasn't that exciting either. Tampa Bay started out strong, and the Force did their best to catch up. 50-47 Tampa.
  

Power Recap and AFL State of the Union

I'm going to get to a recap of the game, I promise, but there are unfortunately much bigger issues that need to be addressed before I do.

Okay, first off, remember all that awesome stuff I said about Kyle Rowley and the future of the Pittsburgh Power? Yeah, forget about that. Not happening. For those of you that didn't tune into the game Friday night, a whole can of worms was opened. Depending on who you listen to, the players were planning to strike at kickoff (Rowley says it was an empty threat) and the league preemptively fired everyone at the pre-game dinner. Then, they planned to play the game with scrubs and replacements.

Eventually, everyone except Rowley and our kicker were re-signed, with some even making it onto the field during the game. The team seems to be holding Rowley responsible, and there have been some pretty harsh things said about him. Rowley got the chance to tell his side of the story in an interview, but of course, that's not getting nearly the exposure.

The center of the issue is one of pay. Everyone who follows the league knows - and I mentioned last week - that the pay is rather pathetic in this league. The players union wants substantially better benefits and pay, and I understand that. On KDKA the other night, Lynn Swann himself even voiced his understanding of the issue. On the other side of the coin, I also know that the pay scale is a by-product of what the powers-that-be had to do to bring the league back after it took a season off. I've often heard that they fully intended to pay more as the league became more viable. I also understand that. Both are good points, and unfortunately, both are mainly mutually exclusive.

What I don't understand is how this whole situation has been handled. Whether or not Rowley was the ringleader, he was hung out to dry over this. In his words, he was trying to stand with the players, and one way or another, they abandoned him and left him holding the bag. They had their reasons - mainly that they didn't want to lose their jobs - but it still sucks for him.

Also, the league did as much as they could to quash the news rather than deal with it head-on. There are accusations on Facebook that they deleted posts about it on their page, they didn't really release anything official about it until yesterday, and their whole comment on it after the game Friday was "After a long, tumultuous day of roster transactions..." (The Power also released a level-headed statement of their own.) On top of all that, most accounts say that players were only rehired if they renounced their unions - which defeats the whole purpose of them having one.

I hear sports guys all the time complaining about the "Twittersphere" and "Facebook journalism" that allows misinformation to spread at the speed of light while they have to take their time checking facts. It's not a great situation for them, but it is the situation that they have. With a league that has such minimal coverage as this, it's even worse. In the absence of anything official, all we had to go on for a few days was rumor. The league should have gotten out in front of this right from the beginning to get their side out. Now they look like bad guys and the sport itself is a punchline.

They say that any coverage is good coverage, but the last few days have tested that. For the first time since their season opener last year, the Power is actually being talked about during the TV sports report and by radio personalities. Unfortunately, they're only talking about the mass firing, and not about the rehires. Randy Baumann of the DVE Morning Show in particular has latched onto this like a popular kid mercilessly mocking the kid who accidentally burped in a quiet classroom and never letting it go. I've talked to several people who seem to think that either A.) the league itself is now defunct or at least B.) the Power is all over but the crying.

Arena Football is still alive and more-or-less well. The Power is still around, and has only lost a quarterback and a kicker. After last season, is that really that different than business as usual when it comes right down to it? No. So, buck up, put on your big boy pants and cheer on a local sports team that's really getting the short end of the stick here. It's only our poor luck that this happened - whichever two teams played that first game were going to be made an example of, and we just happened to draw that schedule.



Now, the game. Remember that? We played a game Friday night and we won the damn thing decisively with replacements, a rattled QB and no kicker! I don't know about you, but that makes me pretty happy over here.

I'm going to ignore the sour grapes the Predators have been putting out there about a gentleman's agreement about the number of starters each team was going to use instead of replacements. It was a chaotic scene, and not only did the right hand not know what the left was doing, it didn't seem to even know the left was there.

The first quarter was an anomaly in the Arena League in that there wasn't a point scored. This was mainly because no one knew what was going on, and no one had played with each other before. Hell, Kyle Israel started the game in the Preds locker room and finished the evening wearing black and gold!

In the second quarter, original starters began to return to the field and things got a bit more normal. (Plus, I started to breathe again and stopped thinking the sky was falling.) Overall, it was tough to judge the team as a whole based on this game, but there were a number of things about players that I can.

First off, the King is dead, long live the King: Andrico Hines looks to be the heir-apparent now that Kyle has left the building never to return. He looked shaky as all get-out during the game, but the end result looked a lot better in retrospect. The game book isn't out there yet, so I unfortunately can't break down too many specifics, but his overall stats were nice. Averaging almost 15 yards a completion, he threw for a total of 266 yards and 6 touchdowns and no interceptions. When you take into account the fact that he was dealing with unfamiliar receivers and the additional fact that games like this favor the defense, it's downright impressive.

Although DeWalt didn't get his hands on the ball, our other Iron Man, PJ Berry really showed his stuff Friday. He had 52 yards plus a TD on offense, broke up a few plays on defense and averaged 12 yards a return on special teams. Is it any wonder he won Iron Man of the Year last season with the Voodoo?

Mike Washington. Mike "the Joystick" Washington.

Man, it is so good to have him still on the team. 166 yards and 4 TDs, he returned to the field in explosive fashion. The fact that the only Orlando receiver to see the end zone was also named Washington just made it seem like Joystick was everywhere at once. A few replays even looked like they sped up the film when he turned on the jets.

Two other players to take note of are Bryan Williams and Chris "Dodgeball" LeFlore (I'm gonna make that one stick if it kills me.) Both of these defensive players made a splash Friday night, and I'm looking forward to seeing what they can do against a team of starters. Leflore was in on a lot of plays and also managed a turnover in there. Williams was dominating. Several of his hits were both vicious and completely legal - the sweet spot for the position. By the end of the game, you could tell the Preds were designing plays to avoid him (which left them with LeFlore...)

Finally, I'm not too worried about the kicker situation right now. Without one Friday, both teams just went for 2, and the Power had pretty good luck with that. Maybe we should make that "our thing."

We have a bye next week, which means that we can get everything evened out before our home opener against the Soul.

Elsewhere in the league

Verdict on Ustream: it has potential, but everyone seemed to be having issues this weekend, so I didn't get to watch as much as I wanted to. The Talons game was stuttering too much to attempt to watch, the Rush game had no sound, and the Rattlers game just completely cut out. Everyone is promising to do better next week, so we shall see.

• The Talons hosted the Blaze at their new San Antonio location, and proved that Garcia is still the man. 350ish yards and 8 TDs sealed the deal for his new team.
• Although there was no sound, Russ Michna sure looked great in the Rush's opener against the Storm. Hooking back up with veteran Reggie Grey, he destroyed Tampa 70-48
• If there was a game that had me weeping because of technical issues with ustream, it was this one. Watching the live scoring back-and-forth between these two bitter rivals told me that it must have been GREAT to watch. The Ratts lost a nail-biter, 71-70 in OT
• Good news! Philly and the Mustangs haven't played yet and the Gladiators lost. We're #1 in the division!
• Finally, Coach Ho got the job done with his new team in Iowa. Barnstormers win in OT.
  

The Power Returns! Season Intro and Opening Night Preview

It's that time again, folks: Arena Football season is once again upon us.

After a long winter full of nothing much exciting (aside from the Steelers, Pens, player news/fears for both, and some very bad predictions on my part) it is time once again to get some use out of the Consol Energy Center and see some football!

For those of you new to Arena Football in general and my posts in particular, let me lay things out in a nutshell: Arena Football is similar to the outdoor game we all know and love in that there are two teams in helmets and pads where one is offense and one is defense at any given time. The offense moves the ball down field by throwing or carrying it, and then scores by crossing a line or kicking it through the uprights. The other team attempts to stop them through subtle and nuanced measures that amount to running into each other as hard as they can. The two teams then change sides and continue for 60 minutes with a break in the middle so that the spectators can get beer.

The difference with the indoor game is that it is played on a field half the size with no sidelines and smaller uprights. The clock rarely stops and the emphasis is on scoring. Offense is king, the ball is rarely carried and the players are barely paid. In this form, you have a game played by a combination people who are either just playing for the love of the game, or are desperate as all hell to get into the NFL. The result is a fast-paced, high-scoring game that requires a different strategy than the outdoor one, full of a different kind of excitement and passion on the field.

There - now you know more than 90% of the people out there when asked, "explain the Arena Football League to me." For a more detailed breakdown, see the Pittsburgh Power's page.

Now back to the topic at hand which is - YEAH, BUDDY! IT'S TIME FOR ARENA FOOTBALL AGAIN!

Once again, the Power get the honor of opening the season for the whole league on a Friday night NFL Network broadcast. This year, it's a road game, but it's still awesome that we're first out of the gate. We must have picked up a decent following last year, because between the NFL Network and the CW, all but two games will be broadcast on TV this year. Four of them will be seen nationally on the NFL Network. Although it's handy that every game in the league last year was broadcast online through NiftyTV, I'm glad that I won't have to monkey around with that as much for the home team.

The first post of the season is always difficult, because it's hard to make predictions. The way the AFL works is that players are only under one year contracts, and most are paid a couple of hundred bucks a game. Because of this, there is massive turnover each season, and a team can be a completely different group of guys each season. As such, you can really only go on what you know about veterans, what the local support for a team is, and the coaches. Don't get me wrong, that can mean a lot - but just look at the Sabercats last year. Historically great team, total crap most of 2011.

That being said, we have an exciting game lined up this week. Once again, we travel to Orlando to play the Predators in the Friday night spotlight. This did not work out well for us late last season, but honestly, it was one of the best-played games the Power had all season. The Preds have insane fans and always have, their arena is generally packed, and national games are always more intense. I expect this outing to be no different.

Like I said, it's tough to say what will happen the first outing with a team each year. We have some old faces returning and some new ones we can only guess about. Here's what I can say based on our game last year:

On the Power side, Josh Lay was clutch on defense, LaRico Stevenson was big in pass coverage, Total Chaos showed some stuff, DeWalt, Joystick, and Campbell were key on offense, but were outshone by DJ Hall and, last but not least, even Edinger went 6-8 on PATs. It was a standout game, but we ran out of gas in the second half and we continued to be plagued by our QB woes.

On the Preds side, the show was run by TT Toliver, Josh Bush and Robert Quiroga on offense with Bobby Sippio putting up yards. Coach O'Hara continued his history of risky calls by putting in Collin Drafts at QB instead of his starter, and Chris Dubalt teamed up with kicker Mark Lewis twice in a frickin' row to recover off the uprights for a score on a kickoff.

How does that stack up this year? Well, Coach O'Hara is gone, as is Bush, Quiroga and Dubalt. On our side, we've lost Hall, Campbell and Total Chaos - the latter of these to none other than the Orlando Predators!

Our core is still there. DeWalt returns as our Iron Man, playing both offense and defense. Unless he somehow lost his magic in the last few months, he's still going to be a play-maker. Tall, accurate and quick, he's a sure target in the end zone and never afraid to flip backwards over the boards to make a catch. Also, he's tall enough to smack down passes and a receiver so he knows what to do if he intercepts it.

Mike "Joystick" Washington is also back. The pint-sized terror is primed to get back out there and do what he does best - namely, squeak through holes and run 15 yards in the blink of an eye. From what I understand, Mike still has NFL aspirations and plays like he's trying to prove it.

Finally, Josh Lay and LaRico Stevenson are still listed on our roster to cause trouble on defense and, for better or worse, I don't have Edinger to kick around any more.

We have two big unknowns going into this game: Kyle Rowley and the Power's ability to protect the QB. Last year, we had a constant carousel of quarterbacks the whole season. We had at least 4 men fill that role, and I'm having trouble remembering if any of them played 4 games in a row. Part of this was because we had guys without much Arena experience who weren't prepared for how fast the game moves and held the ball too long. They also weren't ready for short passes and quicker defenders. The other problem was that there was seemingly no one blocking for them. They all spent more time on their backs and on IR than they did on the field.

This year, the Power needs to cut that shit out, because we have a QB worth protecting. Kyle Rowley joins us, and his resume (or at least his Wiki entry) reads like a "Here I am, try to stop me" statement. He's the only QB to win the championship in both arena leagues, has been voted MVP, and just all around knows how to win.

Come at me, bro!

Now, I'm not saying that he's suddenly going to solve all our problems, but he's a big key to it. Our weak spot all of last season was mainly at QB, be it consistency, skill, or just coverage. The first two, Rowley's got. He's also played all over the place for a number of years, so he's use to adapting to new teams, coaches and players. As long as the rest of the Power can keep him from getting broken, we're in good gosh-darned shape.

Now for the Predators. One of the only constants generally in this league is coaching. Whole rosters can change, but the same decision makers are up front. Last season, O'Hara lost some key games and for one reason or another, he and the Predators decided to part ways. It's okay, he landed on his feet with the Voodoo, and it should be interesting. So, what can we expect from new head coach Bret Munsey? Tough to say. He's been out of this league for a few years, but when he last coached, it was for the Arena Bowl champion 2008 Soul. That bodes well for Orlando.

Also, although they've lost some key receivers, but retained the total threat of fan-favorite TT Toliver. They picked up former Pittsburgh favorite Terrance "Total Chaos" Carter on defense. Furthermore, Collin Drafts is still backing up the starting QB. This QB is Trevor Harris, who used to back up none other than 2011 Arena Bowl runner-up Nick Devila. He's also worked out with both the J'Ville Jaguars and Buffalo Bills. That's a good resume.

Finally, we gotta worry about that damn Mark Lewis on kickoffs.

So, where does that leave us? Several of the key ingredients of last season for both teams are in the game along with some very powerful wildcards. If both teams play like they did last year, and the Power can protect Rowley and Rowley gels with the team, I think they can win. We have more team veterans in key offensive positions. As this is an offense-driven game, that means a lot. However, if the Power gets up to old tricks of not protecting the QB and running out of gas in the second half, they're sunk.

The game airs at 8:30 on the NFL Network.

Elsewhere in the league

The Power isn't the only game in town this weekend. There's a lot more football to watch. This season, it looks like Nifty is out, and ustream is in. I haven't used it yet, but it advertises in-browser viewing as well as iPhone/Android apps. Sounds fantastic, and a huge improvement over Nifty.

• Saturday @4, the Blaze visits the recently moved San Antonio Talons. The Blaze is generally entertaining, but I'm more interested in the Talons. They are the new home for Arena Bowl Champ Aaron Garcia, the Pred's Robert Quiroga, and our own Jason "Watchu Talkin' Bout" Willis. They're going to be dangerous.
• Obviously I'm all about the Storm/Rush game at 8:00. Nick Hill, formerly of the Preds, is heading up the Storm, while my boy Russ Michna returns to the field with receivers Gray and Hall.
• The Rattlers and Sabercats meet up at 10:30. Even when the Cats stunk last year, these teams meeting up was still something to behold. They're one of the biggest rivalries of the league, and the games are always brutal, showcasing what AFL is all about.
• Monday night is mainly interesting to see how our rivals the Gladiators do in one game, and how former Soul coach Hohensee and former Rush QB JJ Raterink do in the other.

Enjoy the season, everyone! I'll be back next week with the recap.


Also, don't forget that there's a comments section right down there. Let me know you're out there

The Mike Wallace Situation

I already had two posts called "The _____ _____ Situation" and I tried to come up with a snappy title for this one.  I thought about, "Should the Steelers Sign Mike Wallace?" and, "Will the Steelers Sign Mike Wallace?" but then I realized that those would make for short, unrewarding posts.  The answers to those questions are, "Of course" and "I have no idea" and that's about all I know on those subjects.

Wallace is the best receiver on the team, one of the best receivers in the league, he's only 25, and he's lightning fast.  He's the second most important player they have on offense after Ben Roethlisberger.  They certainly should sign him, the question is whether or not they'll be able to.

As to whether or not they'll be able to, I have no idea.  Three weeks ago, when the Steelers were $25 million over the salary cap, I didn't think there was a chance in hell.  Now that they've restructured some contracts and they're $10 million under the cap, I think they have better than a 50/50 shot.  Wallace may very well be able to get more money playing for a different team, but he's unlikely to sign with an organization that's as stable and consistently competitive that also has a top five quarterback.  Plus which, football players are creatures of routine and habit.  They'd prefer to stay with the devil they know versus the devil they don't, even if all things (i.e. money) aren't equal.

That gives the Steelers the inside track to sign Wallace, but the clock is ticking and the deadline is March 13th, when free agency begins.

The Steelers decided not to franchise Wallace and I think that's the right call.  If they franchised Wallace, then every team in the league would've backed off.  If they weren't able to reach a longterm deal with him -- and the franchise tag sometimes brings out animosity in players, most times leads to a longterm deal, but you never know -- then they would be in the same situation next year.  Not only would they need to go through the same process with Wallace, they'd also have to deal with impending restricted free agent Antonio Brown.  With the way they've restructured contracts and managed the salary cap the last few years, their cap situation is going to get worse before it gets better.  Even if, as expected, the cap jumps significantly in 2013, everyone else in the league will also have lots of extra money to spend.

By placing a first round tender on Wallace, the Steelers can continue to negotiate in good faith and allow the market to determine his price if they don't get a deal struck by the 13th.  That gives them flexibility, but it also gives other teams the opportunity to come in the back door and steal Wallace away.

Any team that signs Wallace would need to offer him a contract that is heavily front-loaded and would pay roster bonuses in the first year of the deal, making it so that the Steelers couldn't match the offer without cutting more players.  They could also offer more than the Steelers think Wallace is worth, but I have no idea what that number is.  Any team that signs him would also need to give the Steelers a first round pick in this year's draft.  A front-loaded, rich contract and a first round pick is a steep price to pay for any player.  Are there any teams that would be willing to pay that price?

At first blush, I didn't think so.  Then I read this article by Bill Barnwell at Grantland.  Barnwell wrote that from an agent's perspective with an obvious bias towards selling Wallace's good qualities while attempting to hide -- or neglecting to mention -- his bad attributes.  But, you have to admit that the man has some good points.  Especially when compared to Santonio Holmes (signed a five year, $45 million contract last year), Wallace looks like a sure thing.  You take a risk signing any free agent, but Wallace's upside, talent, and production level at this early point in his career seems to justify the risk.

The two teams in most desperate need of receiver are the hated Ravens and 49ers.  I'm sure Baltimore would love nothing more than to take a big weapon from their rivals, but they tend to build through the draft and wouldn't be likely to sacrifice that pick.  The same goes for the 49ers.  Also, both teams could explore the unrestricted market, which has plenty of big names with no draft pick compensation linked to them.  This is not to say that Wallace isn't worth it, he's just not worth the added compensation of the first round pick, given the fact that a number of unrestricted options would represent a significant improvement for either of these teams.  Also, neither of these teams is deep enough at the position that simply adding Wallace would upgrade their offense across the board.

If there's a team the Steelers need to fear, it's a team that could see a huge benefit by adding Wallace, has plenty of cap space, and has a first round pick to spare.  That leaves the Bengals and the Patriots.  Both teams have at least $20 million in cap space -- Cincinnati has a reported $60 million worth of room and the new CBA says that Mike Brown needs to spend that money -- and both teams have a reason to hurt the Steelers.  New England would have a pretty explosive offense with Brady, Welker, Gronkowski, Hernandez, and Wallace and they have a spare first round pick that the Saints traded them last year for the rights to draft Mark Ingram.  Even Mike Brown would open up his check book at the thought of the Mighty Ginger throwing to two Pro Bowl receivers under the age of 26 and they have a spare first round pick from the Raiders courtesy of the Carson Palmer trade.  A first round pick is not something that teams tend to throw around, but a spare pick gives them something to mitigate their risk.

The bottom line is that Wallace will draw interest if he hits the open market.  How much that interest will translate to in terms of dollars remains to be seen, as well as what the Steelers ceiling is in terms of what they're willing to pay when faced with other offers.  They can eliminate a lot of variables and questions if they lock up Wallace before the 13th, but whether or not they will is still up in the air.

Hines Ward: Should He Stay or Should He Go?

The news surrounding Hines Ward's future with the Steelers has been unreliable and has pretty much changed by the day, but the one thing that's well established is that he's not staying on the team at a price tag of $4 million.  He's said he's willing to re-structure his contract and make less and the Steelers have said that they'd love to have him back if the price is right.

My only problem with the situation is this: If they're both thinking the same thing, why hasn't this gotten done yet?  My guess is that it's because Ward's idea of re-structuring is more like $2 million and the Steelers idea of the "right price" is the veteran minimum.  That means they've been staring at each other since February 11th when news broke that the Steelers were going to cut Ward, and both of them are waiting for the other to blink.  Ward has a clause in his contract that the Steelers need to tell him whether or not he's going to be on the team by Thursday, March 1st, not March 13th when free agency begins.  That means that someone had better blink soon.  Since the Steelers are still over the cap, I'm thinking that Hines will need to blink first.  Otherwise, he's gone.

So, assuming that Ward is willing to take the veteran minimum ($925,000 in his case), we end up with another question: Is he worth retaining, even at that price?

If the Steelers manage to retain Mike Wallace -- which is starting to look more and more likely -- and also re-sign Jerricho Cotchery, that puts Ward fifth on the depth chart behind Wallace, Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, and Cotchery.  Future Hall of Famer or not, $925,000 is a lot of money to pay a fifth wide receiver that (presumably) won't help out on special teams.

There's the argument that Ward will be able to contribute in other ways, such as tutoring and developing all the young receiving talent currently ahead of him on the depth chart.  I think there's something to that, since I firmly believe that Terrance Mathis helped Antwan Randle-El considerably in his rookie year, but that was a different situation.  Mathis was a specialist: He was a smaller guy that played slot receiver and returned kicks, just like El.  He had a unique perspective and set of experiences that helped make El into the player he became.

Ward doesn't have much in common with the other receivers on the roster.  Plus which, aside from teaching guys how to block, I haven't heard much about Hines coaching and tutoring young guys.  There's nothing wrong with the fact that he doesn't do it, but Jerome Bettis added value in his later years by giving advice to Willie Parker, helping him become the back he was.  Bettis was able to do that even though he and Parker had vastly different builds and running styles.  I don't think Ward adds that extra value.  Plus which, as Mike Prisuta correctly pointed out on DVE, there are guys that already get paid to teach players.  They're called coaches.

Once the Steelers got Hines to 1,000 receptions, he completely disappeared.  I don't remember seeing him on the field after that.  If he's not going to be an effective surrogate coach, he's not going to be involved on offense, and he's not going to contribute on special teams, then he's not worth $925, to say nothing of $925,000.  That sucks to say, but it's true.  From a business/team perspective, it doesn't make sense to retain Ward, even at the veteran minimum.  They're better off grabbing a cheaper rookie in the late rounds or as an undrafted free agent for the fifth spot and developing that guy from there.

But... here's the thing.  It's weird to think of Hines playing for another team.  It's weird that Franco Harris closed out his career with the Seahawks.  As a fan, I don't want this to get weird.

Here's the other thing: It's highly unlikely that the Steelers will sign Wallace and Cotchery by Thursday.  If they don't sign either of those guys, then Hines becomes a bargain at 925K as the third receiver.  I don't think that will happen, but I can't guarantee that it won't.  Signing Ward gives them insurance -- and at a pretty good rate -- if they don't sign Wallace or Cotchery.  If they do sign both of those guys, then Cotchery can help out on special teams and they have insurance in case anyone gets hurt.  Wallace had a calf issue last season, Cotchery had hamstring problems, and Sanders wasn't available until about mid season.

Steelers N At Official Stance:
Hines should stay.

The Todd Haley Situation

It's been quite some time since I posted anything -- a little over three weeks -- so I figured I'd try to catch up.

When I heard that Todd Haley was interviewing for the offensive coordinator job, I was less than pleased.  I knew the Steelers would end up hiring him and I had some serious reservations about him.  The more I thought about it, the more I realized those reservations boiled down to one thing: Ken Whisenhunt had a chance to bring Haley back in the Steelers West fold and decided against it.  That's really it.  My thinking was, Haley is a known quantity in Arizona.  I thought that, if Whisenhunt passed on the opportunity to bring Haley back, then he must be damaged goods.

Now, that could still be true, but Haley does bring a lot of positive things to the table.

1. When he's had the personnel to work with, his offenses have always performed well.  I'm giving him a pass for last year in Kansas City, even if the Chiefs did not.
2. He doesn't have an existing relationship with Ben Roethlisberger and the first few weeks of their current relationship have been rocky.
3. He's not a passing guy or a running guy.  He's a guy that takes the players he has on hand and designs the offense from there.

For #1, you could look at his track record in Arizona or the fact that he helped turn Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe into fantasy football all-stars in 2010.

Number 2 and Number 3 are both positive and important because those two qualities make him the polar opposite of Bruce Arians.  The big things that always annoyed me about Arians were the facts that he was too buddy-buddy with Roethlisberger and he was always fond of saying, "The offense is the offense."  Basically, he had his design, the players would run it, and the other team's defense needed to try and stop it.  When it worked, it was very effective.  When it didn't, Arians was very reluctant to adjust, and the offense was not so effective.

A lot has been made about the fact that Roethlisberger wasn't happy with the decision to let Arians go and that he hasn't been very responsive to Haley since it was announced he would be the team's next offensive coordinator.  I think that talk is overblown and that most of it, if not all of it, will be forgotten when the team reports back to work.  Remember when Roethlisberger's suspension was supposed to divide the team?  Or Rashard Mendenhall's Twitter remarks?  James Harrison's Men's Journal interview?  Hines Ward's DUI?  None of it did.  This longer room is too tight, too strong, and Mike Tomlin has these guys too focused to get derailed by any distractions.

It also couldn't hurt for Roethlisberger to feel that he has something to prove and that there are people out there that don't believe in him.  He's a very self-motivated guy, but he can often become complacent.  I think the Haley hiring will light a bit of a fire under him.

When Haley had Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston, he threw the ball a lot and the offense was extremely successful.  When he had Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles, he ran the ball a lot and the offense was extremely successful.  When Charles blew out his knee early in the 2011 season and Matt Cassel was placed on injured reserve, Haley did the best he could with Dexter McCluster and Tyler Palko.

Since Mendenhall will probably start the season on the PUP list and Ike Redman isn't exactly a franchise back, Haley will probably focus on throwing the ball more.  He's got Roethlisberger and a bunch of talent at wide receiver -- which is similar to the situation he had in Arizona -- so it makes sense to get eight or nine yards per pass attempt instead of three or four yards per rush attempt.

The only issue there is if ownership keeps meddling with the offense.  They already dropped the ball big time by completely screwing up the Arians firing/retiring/lack of contract extension.  My hope is that they take more of a "hands off" approach, at least for the upcoming season, and let the football people do their jobs.  

That's my hope, anyway.

Handicapping the Super Bowl

(Side Note: I'm not sure I can use the words "Super Bowl" to describe tomorrow's game.  That has a copyright on it, doesn't it?  Now that I have eight followers instead of two, I need to watch out for stuff like this.  I've finally crested $6 on Google Ad words -- click the links on the ads, please! -- and I don't want to see my mighty empire come crashing down.  But, I'm going to live dangerously.)

If you're here to get gambling tips -- which is a bad move, since I did a horrible job handicapping the Championship Round -- then I like the Giants to win outright (+130) and the Over (53).

Here's why...

The Patriots defense, in my mind, is a constant.  They're always bad.  They'll give up 24-28 points a game on a consistent basis, but they won 15 games because they consistently put up 30 or more points on offense.  This has been especially true during their current ten game win streak.  The reason they were able to keep Denver and Baltimore at 20 points or under -- and the hated Ravens could have scored 23 or 27 in that game had a couple things gone their way -- is because those teams don't quality depth at receiver.  If New England is facing a team that does have depth at receiver, then they need to decide who to put Julian Edelman on.  If you're not familiar with Edelman, he a quarterback-turned-receiver-turned-cornerback who has played more snaps on defense than he has on offense this season.  He's a gifted athlete and a hell of a team player, but he is an awful cornerback.  In the AFC Championship game, Baltimore was able to get Anquan Boldin isolated on Edelman and Edelman got abused.  I like Boldin and I think he's a great player, but he's not very dynamic or explosive.  He's also not as explosive as Mario Manningham, Hakeem Nicks, and especially not as explosive as Victor Cruz.

If Kevin Gilbride (offensive coordinator for the Giants) can find a way to match Cruz up on Edelman through formations and motion, then this game is going to get ugly in a hurry.  Cruz had a huge game against a significantly better 49ers secondary in the championship round and he's a special player.  My guess is that Bill Belichick will focus on taking Cruz away first, but that still leaves Manningham and Nicks and still leaves him with someone to assign Edelman to.

Even if New York isn't able to run the ball effectively and the Patriots play mostly zone to take away the long ball and force Eli Manning to throw the ball into tight spots, it still won't end well for New England.  That just means the Giants will be able to mix in some Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw.  Also, the Patriots zone defense is even worse than their man coverage.  I think Belichick realized this about halfway through the season -- right after they lost two straight to the Steelers and Giants -- and switched to more man schemes.  He just needed to find a way each game to insulate Edelman by assigning him to the team's worst receiver.  New York's worst receiver is still considerably better than Edelman.  The opportunities will be there for the Giants on offense and I think that they will be able to take advantage of those opportunities.

So, Eli and company are going to be able to score points.  Will they be able to score more than Tom Brady's offense?

For me, this comes down to Rob Gronkowski.  He has a high ankle sprain, he's listed as questionable, and he's expected to play.  That's fine, but I keep wondering how limited he'll be and how effective he'll be given his limitations.  Steeler fans have come to know (and hate) the high ankle sprain and we've had a lot of experience with it over the last two seasons.  It's true that Gronkowski is younger than Roethlisberger and he's had two weeks to rest and get better, but I think there's an upper limit of what rest and recovery will do for an injury like this.  From everything I've seen and read, it just takes time, and Gronk hasn't had enough time for it to heal fully.  He may have a different, less severe, lower grade high ankle sprain than Roethlisberger, but you also can't get a little bit pregnant.  You either have a high ankle sprain or you don't.  Roethlisberger was able to play through his injury, but he was less effective.  Gronkowski will probably be able to play through the pain as well -- and he's getting fitted with a special shoe for the game -- but tight ends need to run more than quarterbacks.  I think the injury will slow him down and wear him down, which takes away a big weapon for the Patriots.

Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker are great players, but they're not game breakers like Gronkowski.  They'll be able to help Brady out and New England will be able to move the ball, but I don't think either of these guys is going to make a play that will break the game wide open.  Welker's also listed as questionable with a knee injury.  He'll play, too, but is he 100 percent?  I doubt it.  He had six catches for 53 yards against Baltimore and six catches for 55 yards against Denver.  The numbers against the hated Ravens are understandable, especially considering that Brady struggled in that game.  But Brady threw for 363 yards and six touchdowns against the Broncos and Welker ended up with 6/55 (with one touchdown).  He's not 100 percent and this offense will not be the same if Hernandez and Deion Branch are their primary weapons.

Then there's the New York pass rush, which is pretty good.  They were the key in Super Bowl XLII and they will be the key again.  Even with Welker and Gronkowski being limited, this is still a potent Patriots offense with a Hall of Fame quarterback and an outstanding offensive line.  New England knows that they'll need to score a ton of points to win this game and they'll be highly motivated to do so.  In any game against the Patriots, stopping the offense means getting to Tom Brady with four guys.  In New England's three losses -- and near losses to Baltimore and Miami -- the common thread has been that Brady has not had a good game.  He threw four picks against the Bills and was ineffective against the Steelers.  He had two interceptions and was inconsistent in the red zone against the hated Ravens.  Get in Brady's head and you have a chance.

The front four for the Giants know that they are the key to this game.  They understand that success on defense begins and ends with them.  I think they're up to the task and I think they're ready to get after it.

Still, the Patriots aren't known for rolling over and playing dead.  The Giants are going to score a lot of points because of the match-ups and New England is going to score a lot of points because they have to, and because they're still very good.  I see a close, high-scoring game, with New York coming out on top.

Prediction:
Giants 31, Patriots 28