I have a bunch of excuses as to why this post is going up on Saturday afternoon as opposed to Thursday or Friday afternoon. The sun was in my eyes, I had a flat tire, there was a car coming, it was end of year at work, I cut my finger on Thursday night and typing sucks. But, I think it ultimately breaks down to the fact that I haven't been able to get fired up for this game.
The Steelers are playing Cleveland and Cleveland does not, in fact, rock. This used to be a rivalry game during the first Cleveland iteration, back when Andre Rison and Matt Stover played for the team, but the second coming of the Browns has been pretty disappointing. Plus which, I came into the season knowing that Cleveland was going to suck -- then again, I also though Detroit and Cincinnati were going to suck, so there's that -- so I circled this game as a potential late-season blowout or as an opportunity for the Steelers to rest their starters. I also thought the Steelers were going to sweep the season series against the hated Ravens, so there's that on top of that.
Then there's the fact that this is the last game of the season and the two teams are, once again, headed in opposite directions. I remembered Week 17 of the 2010 season, where the Steelers were crushing the Browns in the third quarter and my cousin and I decided to head off to the casino. I remembered all the times that the two teams met this century under similar circumstances and couldn't remember any of those games ending well for Cleveland. So, I did what any upstanding member of the Internet would do: I looked it up.
Thus far this century, the Steelers and Browns have faced each other four times either in Week 16 or Week 17 (three times in Week 17, one time in Week 16). All four times (2001, 2005, 2008, and 2010 seasons), the Steelers have been playing for playoff seeding and Cleveland has been playing for pride. Final scores of those games, in order: 28-7, 41-0, 31-0, 41-9. That's some history right there. And, since the Browns roster has turned over so many times in the last ten years, there are way more Steelers that have experienced that history than Browns. The Steelers own the Browns late in the season and they know it. If you play for Cleveland, the only hope for victory is that you weren't a part of that history and you can attempt to start a new chapter.
But, given the talent disparity between the two teams, I don't think that new chapter starts on Sunday. With something to play for, the Steelers will be motivated and angry. With nothing to play for but pride, Cleveland players are probably just looking to get through the season without getting hurt. The only wild card in play is the fact that the Browns players probably aren't very happy with James Harrison and they may be motivated to take some of that anger out on Ben Roethlisberger.
I don't think that Roethlisberger needs to play for the Steelers to win this game and I don't think he should play. But, my feedback and suggestions for the Steelers have largely been met with resistance and restraining orders. He has practiced all week and says that he intends to play at least 25 snaps. Since Ben generally gets what Ben wants, that means Bruce Arians should include a lot of max protect blocking schemes for when the Steelers do decide to pass. I think Cleveland is going to come after him.
More to the point, I think the Browns need to come after the Steelers on offense and defense if they want to win this game. Pat Schurmur has been extremely conservative thus far this season and that conservative approach has led to a 4-11 record. He's overmatched and outgunned and he needs to go big or go home if he wants to win this game. He needs to throw in some gadget plays on offense and throw the ball down the field. He has Seneca Wallace at his disposal and Wallace has enough arm strength to get the ball vertical and enough athletic ability -- especially when you add Josh Cribbs to the mix -- to run some trick plays and catch the Steelers defenders asleep at the switch. Schurmur has the coverage guys in the secondary to take some chances with overload blitzes. He has a lot of the tools necessary to take his best shot at the Steelers and possibly pull out a victory.
The issue is that he's had these tools all season and he hasn't used them. Does he throw the kitchen sink at the Steelers on Sunday, or does he stick with the same game plan that got him to 4-11? When you're 9-6 and fighting for playoff position, you do whatever it takes to win. When you're 4-11 and thinking about the offseason, you do whatever it takes to avoid criticism. Sure, ending the season with a win would be positive, but it would also open up questions as to why Sunday's game plan wasn't used all season.
Will Schurmur go all out or will he dance with who brung him? I think he'll dance with who brung him and that will bring his team another loss on Sunday. Steelers roll.
Prediction:
Steelers 34, Browns 6
Saturday, December 31, 2011
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Weidman's Picks, Week 17
(Click here to see current NFL Pick Em standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)
Alrighty - All I've got left to play for is pride and finishing strong. Basically, I'm the Browns of this Pick 'Em stupidity.
Carolina at NOLA:
Easy pick to start this out. Carolina has been a disappointment all season, and NOLA is still looking to kick some ass at home.
Buffalo at Pats:
Might as well finish my season's picks with the old tried-and-true "Don't pick against Brady, especially at home" tactic.
Chicago at Minnesota:
Usually, the pick is to take the home team in close games, but I still can't bring myself to pick the Vikings.
Jets at Miami:
Much like the above, I just can't bring myself to pick the Fish, even though they're slightly favored and at home. The Jets have had a rough time of it, but Miami just sucks.
Niners at Rams:
Another easy pick. I still won't pick the Rams until they prove themselves, and the Niners still kick ass. I'd love the Rams to beat them and end their season with a (meaningless) statement, but it's not gonna happen.
Detroit at Pack:
Pack's at home, and Detroit is still Detroit. They're going to the playoffs, and I'm sure they're glad for that. Unless the Pack slacks off to save energy for the post season, then they're going to run away with this. The thought of them slacking off is the only explanation for Vegas favoring Detroit by three and a half when they're playing a team like the Pack at home - a place they haven't lost all season.
Washington at Philly:
Neither team has anything left to play for besides pride. The Eagles need to at least end their season 50/50 so that they're not a total laughing stock (what with their Dream Team and all.) They're at home, and Washington is pathetic.
Indy at Jacksonville:
You know what? Eff it. Indy has won two in a row. I said I wouldn't pick them again until they accomplished that, and they did. I have nothing to lose in my picks, they have nothing to lose (or gain) on the season - I'm going to be bold and pick them on the road to close it out. I'm also going to buy stock on margin and back a land war in Asia. If there's a Sicilian who's willing to wager when death is on the line, I'll take the bet. Screw it.
Tennessee at Houston:
I don't know what to say - Tenn is actually favored on the road for this one. They also have something to play for when Houston doesn't. I'll play the odds and take them.
Seattle at Steelers West:
Neither team has anything to play for, both have the same records, neither is very good...Home team.
Kansas City at Denver:
Sorry KC, no matter who I pick, Denver's gonna screw me. So, I'll be safe and pick them 'cause they're at home.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta:
Not even a question - Atlanta is going to stomp TB into the ground to close this season out.
Baltimore at Bungles:
Okay, the fact is, the Ravens are favored and they know what's on the line here. But they're only favored by a point and a half, and Cincy is going to want to totally screw them. Ravens just got past the Brownies last week - I know - and the road has not been their friend this season. Also, the Ravens have been nice enough to choke for us already this season. Pretty much everything rides on this game for us and for them. Which is going to win out? Cincy's hate for the Ravens and their love for playing the upset card - or the Raven's "have to"? I really don't know. I'm picking the Bungles because I really think they can pull it off - but I'm scared that I'm doing it because I want them to.
Steelers at Browns:
See the above and cast us as the Ravens. I know - it hurt to even type that. But, as I've been saying for years, it's easy to hate the Ravens because we're such similar teams, fans and cultures in so many ways. This game is really no different. The Browns are worse than the Bungles, but they love playing the upset. Also, they almost got Baltimore last week, and we're coming into their house this week. We have to win this one to best the Ravens and the Browns know it. Wouldn't surprise me in the least that they and the Bungles are texting back and forth to plan this shit out. The difference is that I'm picking the Steelers because I know they can beat the Browns...but I'm scared that I'm doing it because I want them to.
San Diego at Oakland:
Might as well pick the Raiders one last time this season. Don't let me down, guys.
Dallas at New York Football Giants:
Pride match right here. Eli Manning is the Manning these days, and that is something. Also, Romo is...well, he's Romo and that's the best he can do. It's late season, and that's not a good time for him. Also, he's hurting bad these days. I think that the Giants are going to come up strong to end the season, and Dallas is going to come up Romo.
NOLA over Carolina
Pats over Buffalo
Chicago over Minnesota
Jets over Miami
Niners over Rams
Pack over Detroit
Philly over Washington
Indy over Jacksonville
Tennessee over Houston
Steelers West over Seattle
Denver over Kansas City
Atlanta over Tampa Bay
Bungles over Baltimore
Steelers over Browns
Oakland over San Diego
New York Football Giants over Dallas
Alrighty - All I've got left to play for is pride and finishing strong. Basically, I'm the Browns of this Pick 'Em stupidity.
Carolina at NOLA:
Easy pick to start this out. Carolina has been a disappointment all season, and NOLA is still looking to kick some ass at home.
Buffalo at Pats:
Might as well finish my season's picks with the old tried-and-true "Don't pick against Brady, especially at home" tactic.
Chicago at Minnesota:
Usually, the pick is to take the home team in close games, but I still can't bring myself to pick the Vikings.
Jets at Miami:
Much like the above, I just can't bring myself to pick the Fish, even though they're slightly favored and at home. The Jets have had a rough time of it, but Miami just sucks.
Niners at Rams:
Another easy pick. I still won't pick the Rams until they prove themselves, and the Niners still kick ass. I'd love the Rams to beat them and end their season with a (meaningless) statement, but it's not gonna happen.
Detroit at Pack:
Pack's at home, and Detroit is still Detroit. They're going to the playoffs, and I'm sure they're glad for that. Unless the Pack slacks off to save energy for the post season, then they're going to run away with this. The thought of them slacking off is the only explanation for Vegas favoring Detroit by three and a half when they're playing a team like the Pack at home - a place they haven't lost all season.
Washington at Philly:
Neither team has anything left to play for besides pride. The Eagles need to at least end their season 50/50 so that they're not a total laughing stock (what with their Dream Team and all.) They're at home, and Washington is pathetic.
Indy at Jacksonville:
You know what? Eff it. Indy has won two in a row. I said I wouldn't pick them again until they accomplished that, and they did. I have nothing to lose in my picks, they have nothing to lose (or gain) on the season - I'm going to be bold and pick them on the road to close it out. I'm also going to buy stock on margin and back a land war in Asia. If there's a Sicilian who's willing to wager when death is on the line, I'll take the bet. Screw it.
Tennessee at Houston:
I don't know what to say - Tenn is actually favored on the road for this one. They also have something to play for when Houston doesn't. I'll play the odds and take them.
Seattle at Steelers West:
Neither team has anything to play for, both have the same records, neither is very good...Home team.
Kansas City at Denver:
Sorry KC, no matter who I pick, Denver's gonna screw me. So, I'll be safe and pick them 'cause they're at home.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta:
Not even a question - Atlanta is going to stomp TB into the ground to close this season out.
Baltimore at Bungles:
Okay, the fact is, the Ravens are favored and they know what's on the line here. But they're only favored by a point and a half, and Cincy is going to want to totally screw them. Ravens just got past the Brownies last week - I know - and the road has not been their friend this season. Also, the Ravens have been nice enough to choke for us already this season. Pretty much everything rides on this game for us and for them. Which is going to win out? Cincy's hate for the Ravens and their love for playing the upset card - or the Raven's "have to"? I really don't know. I'm picking the Bungles because I really think they can pull it off - but I'm scared that I'm doing it because I want them to.
Steelers at Browns:
See the above and cast us as the Ravens. I know - it hurt to even type that. But, as I've been saying for years, it's easy to hate the Ravens because we're such similar teams, fans and cultures in so many ways. This game is really no different. The Browns are worse than the Bungles, but they love playing the upset. Also, they almost got Baltimore last week, and we're coming into their house this week. We have to win this one to best the Ravens and the Browns know it. Wouldn't surprise me in the least that they and the Bungles are texting back and forth to plan this shit out. The difference is that I'm picking the Steelers because I know they can beat the Browns...but I'm scared that I'm doing it because I want them to.
San Diego at Oakland:
Might as well pick the Raiders one last time this season. Don't let me down, guys.
Dallas at New York Football Giants:
Pride match right here. Eli Manning is the Manning these days, and that is something. Also, Romo is...well, he's Romo and that's the best he can do. It's late season, and that's not a good time for him. Also, he's hurting bad these days. I think that the Giants are going to come up strong to end the season, and Dallas is going to come up Romo.
NOLA over Carolina
Pats over Buffalo
Chicago over Minnesota
Jets over Miami
Niners over Rams
Pack over Detroit
Philly over Washington
Indy over Jacksonville
Tennessee over Houston
Steelers West over Seattle
Denver over Kansas City
Atlanta over Tampa Bay
Bungles over Baltimore
Steelers over Browns
Oakland over San Diego
New York Football Giants over Dallas
Keller's Picks, Week 17
(Click here to see current NFL Pick Em standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)
Like a lot of NFL teams, I've essentially locked up my seeding at this point in the season. But, Weidman still has something to play for, which means I can't slack off. Now, there are justifiable reasons that I'm making all of these picks, but there are at least a couple where I might be picking based more on what I want to happen rather than what I think will actually happen.
Carolina at NOLA:
Drew Brees has the following QBERT split: Away: 74.3, Home 99.8. Saints are unstoppable at home (ask the Falcons) and Brees needs to defend his shiny new passing record this week so Tom Brady doesn't it steal it out from under him.
Buffalo at New England:
I'd like nothing more than for the Pats and hated Ravens to lose, the Steelers to win, and have the road to the Super Bowl come through Pittsburgh. I'd also like to have a nacho fountain in my dining room and Captain America's shield. Ain't gonna happen.
Chicago at Minnesota:
When in doubt, take the home team. Adrian Peterson is out and the Vikings have one of the worst pass defenses in history, but Matt Forte and Jay Cutler's Infuriating Face are also on injured reserve. I don't trust a McCown brother to put up big numbers, even against a pass defense as woeful as this one.
NY Jets at Miami:
I know. All home teams thus far. The Dolphins took the Pats to the brink last week in Foxborough and I just have this feeling that Rex Ryan's team is going to crap the bed. Nothing more than a feeling, but it's a strong feeling. Plus which, Miami's favored. Which is rare enough that you need to take it when it happens (not the Line of the Week, though).
San Francisco at St. Louis:
If Charlie Batch can beat the Rams by 27, then Jim Harbaugh's practice squad can beat the Rams by 10.
Detroit at Green Bay:
If the Lions still had something to play for, I'd take them. I think the Packers want to finish the season strong and they want to finish 8-0 at Lambeau Field in order to pay back all their shareholders. Since, ya know, those shareholders can't vote, they don't get dividends, and they can't sell their shares. They should at least get something, right?
Washington at Philadelphia:
More of a vote of no confidence in the Redskins than a vote of confidence in the Eagles.
Indianapolis at Jacksonville:
Now that Dan Orlovsky has a taste for victory, he will pursue it at all costs. I think the Colts are on the upswing and the Jags are just trying to limit injuries so they don't have to sit out the first couple of weeks of golf season.
Tennessee at Houston:
Titans have something to play for. Texans don't have anything to play for and TJ Yates is also showing some warts. This one is sneaky, though, since Houston is a three point dog at home.
Seattle at Arizona:
I wish I could quit the Cardinals. I really do.
Kansas City at Denver:
Now we're getting to the part where I start picking what I want to happen. I'm not in the habit of picking against Football Jesus and I don't recommend it. However, he looked absolutely awful against an average Buffalo pass defense last week. The Chiefs have a very good pass defense and I think they could win this game all by themselves on pick sixes and recovered fumbles.
Tampa at Atlanta:
Falcons are tough at home, they're angry that they lost last week, and the Bucs are just dreadful. I know Cam Newton is a good player, but 48 points? C'mon, man!
Baltimore at Cincinnati:
This is a pretty even split between "want to" and "think it will actually happen" so allow me to explain.
Steelers at Cleveland:
I think the Browns are almost as motivated to work on their short game as the Jags. Plus which, the Steelers actually have something to play for.
San Diego at Oakland:
Picking it this way because I want the winner of the AFC West -- whoever it may be -- to finish 8-8. That has been a weird division all year, the games have been tough to pick, and I want people to start screaming about how it's unfair that an 8-8 team gets a home game and an 11-5 team (hello, hated Ravens) has to play on the road. I don't agree that it's unfair, I just want whatever crappy team that wins the AFC West to have to deal with all the whining and nagging for a bit.
Dallas at NY Giants:I think Eli is starting to become a clutch quarterback and I know Romo is not. Also, Romo hurt his throwing hand in Week 16 and injuries like that tend to make it difficult to grip and throw the ball. Cowboys will need to air it out to beat the Giants and I don't think a lame Romo gets it done in December. Or January. Or whatever month it will be at that point.
Line of the Week:
Saints (-9) over Panthers. At this point, I'd need a spread of at least 14 points to pick against New Orleans at home. They're pretty well unstoppable in the Superdome this season.
Moneyline of the Week:
Cincinnati (+113) over Baltimore. I feel more confident about this pick than I do picking the Chargers, but I could just really, really want this to happen.
Over/Under of the Week:
Washington at Philadelphia (46.5, UNDER). That number just seems too high. I know the Dream Team has a lot of talent on offense, but the Redskins are good enough on defense to keep this game from getting out of control. Plus which, you're probably looking at a 34-7 Eagles victory (maybe even 34-10), which is still the Under.
NOLA over Carolina
New England over Buffalo
Minnesota over Chicago
Miami over NY Jets
San Francisco over St. Louis
Green Bay over Detroit
Philadelphia over Washington
Indianapolis over Jacksonville
Tennessee over Houston
Arizona over Seattle
Kansas City over Denver
Atlanta over Tampa
Cincinnati over Baltimore
Steelers over Cleveland
San Diego over Oakland
NY Giants over Dallas
Like a lot of NFL teams, I've essentially locked up my seeding at this point in the season. But, Weidman still has something to play for, which means I can't slack off. Now, there are justifiable reasons that I'm making all of these picks, but there are at least a couple where I might be picking based more on what I want to happen rather than what I think will actually happen.
Carolina at NOLA:
Drew Brees has the following QBERT split: Away: 74.3, Home 99.8. Saints are unstoppable at home (ask the Falcons) and Brees needs to defend his shiny new passing record this week so Tom Brady doesn't it steal it out from under him.
Buffalo at New England:
I'd like nothing more than for the Pats and hated Ravens to lose, the Steelers to win, and have the road to the Super Bowl come through Pittsburgh. I'd also like to have a nacho fountain in my dining room and Captain America's shield. Ain't gonna happen.
Chicago at Minnesota:
When in doubt, take the home team. Adrian Peterson is out and the Vikings have one of the worst pass defenses in history, but Matt Forte and Jay Cutler's Infuriating Face are also on injured reserve. I don't trust a McCown brother to put up big numbers, even against a pass defense as woeful as this one.
NY Jets at Miami:
I know. All home teams thus far. The Dolphins took the Pats to the brink last week in Foxborough and I just have this feeling that Rex Ryan's team is going to crap the bed. Nothing more than a feeling, but it's a strong feeling. Plus which, Miami's favored. Which is rare enough that you need to take it when it happens (not the Line of the Week, though).
San Francisco at St. Louis:
If Charlie Batch can beat the Rams by 27, then Jim Harbaugh's practice squad can beat the Rams by 10.
Detroit at Green Bay:
If the Lions still had something to play for, I'd take them. I think the Packers want to finish the season strong and they want to finish 8-0 at Lambeau Field in order to pay back all their shareholders. Since, ya know, those shareholders can't vote, they don't get dividends, and they can't sell their shares. They should at least get something, right?
Washington at Philadelphia:
More of a vote of no confidence in the Redskins than a vote of confidence in the Eagles.
Indianapolis at Jacksonville:
Now that Dan Orlovsky has a taste for victory, he will pursue it at all costs. I think the Colts are on the upswing and the Jags are just trying to limit injuries so they don't have to sit out the first couple of weeks of golf season.
Tennessee at Houston:
Titans have something to play for. Texans don't have anything to play for and TJ Yates is also showing some warts. This one is sneaky, though, since Houston is a three point dog at home.
Seattle at Arizona:
I wish I could quit the Cardinals. I really do.
Kansas City at Denver:
Now we're getting to the part where I start picking what I want to happen. I'm not in the habit of picking against Football Jesus and I don't recommend it. However, he looked absolutely awful against an average Buffalo pass defense last week. The Chiefs have a very good pass defense and I think they could win this game all by themselves on pick sixes and recovered fumbles.
Tampa at Atlanta:
Falcons are tough at home, they're angry that they lost last week, and the Bucs are just dreadful. I know Cam Newton is a good player, but 48 points? C'mon, man!
Baltimore at Cincinnati:
This is a pretty even split between "want to" and "think it will actually happen" so allow me to explain.
- The Bengals are fighting for their playoff lives while the hated Ravens are playing for seeding.
- Baltimore sucks on the road this year.
- They almost lost to Cleveland at home last week.
- AJ Green should be ready to go and should be motivated to prove that he deserves to go to the Pro Bowl.
- I trust in the Might Ginger.
Steelers at Cleveland:
I think the Browns are almost as motivated to work on their short game as the Jags. Plus which, the Steelers actually have something to play for.
San Diego at Oakland:
Picking it this way because I want the winner of the AFC West -- whoever it may be -- to finish 8-8. That has been a weird division all year, the games have been tough to pick, and I want people to start screaming about how it's unfair that an 8-8 team gets a home game and an 11-5 team (hello, hated Ravens) has to play on the road. I don't agree that it's unfair, I just want whatever crappy team that wins the AFC West to have to deal with all the whining and nagging for a bit.
Dallas at NY Giants:I think Eli is starting to become a clutch quarterback and I know Romo is not. Also, Romo hurt his throwing hand in Week 16 and injuries like that tend to make it difficult to grip and throw the ball. Cowboys will need to air it out to beat the Giants and I don't think a lame Romo gets it done in December. Or January. Or whatever month it will be at that point.
Line of the Week:
Saints (-9) over Panthers. At this point, I'd need a spread of at least 14 points to pick against New Orleans at home. They're pretty well unstoppable in the Superdome this season.
Moneyline of the Week:
Cincinnati (+113) over Baltimore. I feel more confident about this pick than I do picking the Chargers, but I could just really, really want this to happen.
Over/Under of the Week:
Washington at Philadelphia (46.5, UNDER). That number just seems too high. I know the Dream Team has a lot of talent on offense, but the Redskins are good enough on defense to keep this game from getting out of control. Plus which, you're probably looking at a 34-7 Eagles victory (maybe even 34-10), which is still the Under.
NOLA over Carolina
New England over Buffalo
Minnesota over Chicago
Miami over NY Jets
San Francisco over St. Louis
Green Bay over Detroit
Philadelphia over Washington
Indianapolis over Jacksonville
Tennessee over Houston
Arizona over Seattle
Kansas City over Denver
Atlanta over Tampa
Cincinnati over Baltimore
Steelers over Cleveland
San Diego over Oakland
NY Giants over Dallas
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Good News and Bad News: Rams at Steelers
I have to admit that I didn't watch the game. I was out of town, visiting family. If the game was on TV where I was (it wasn't, but even if it was), I wouldn't have been able to watch it. I was visiting with people that wouldn't understand why it was more important to me to watch the Steelers play the hapless Rams in an essentially meaningless late season game instead of spending quality time with them and I only get to see them a couple times a year and when, for the love of God, are they going to see some grand kids?
I figured it was better that I just check my phone for updates and then look at the box scores and analysis of the game afterwards.
Here's what I have for the Good News:
I figured it was better that I just check my phone for updates and then look at the box scores and analysis of the game afterwards.
Here's what I have for the Good News:
- They won and winning is better than losing. And a win's a win.
- Ben Roethlisberger didn't need to start for the Steelers to win by 27. A big reason for this was not the stellar play of Charlie Batch -- though it doesn't look like he played horribly -- but the fact that they were able to average six yards a carry against the league's worst run defense. Hey, I'll take it where I can get it.
- From what I've heard, Trai Essex did a more-than-serviceable job at center. Since Pouncey may not be back for the Cleveland game and Legursky definitely won't, that's at least comforting news.
- Also comforting is the fact that the Browns have the league's 30th ranked run defense, but I guess that's something better left to the preview for this week's game.
- According to Mike Tomlin, Woodley, Pouncey, and Sanders all have a "decent shot" of playing against Cleveland on Sunday. Even if they don't play, it's a good sign that they're getting closer (especially Woodley and Pouncey).
- Brandon Lloyd was targeted 12 times for three receptions and 29 yards. That's an ugly stat line for Lloyd, but another outstanding performance by Ike Taylor.
- I know that Kellen Clemens isn't exactly Aaron Rodgers, but the fact that he was held to 91 yards on 24 attempts -- 3.8 yards per pass attempt is pretty crazy -- is a good sign that the pass defense can be trusted. They're not going to hold Rodgers or Flacco to that kind of horrid production, but it's likely that they won't get lit up, either.
- They committed a turnover and forced zero turnovers. Since the opener against the hated Ravens, they've committed only 13 turnovers in 14 games. Take out the four against the 49ers and that's nine in 13 games, which is excellent. The issue is that they're still minus-12 in turnover differential. Maybe they're saving all their lucky bounces for the postseason? I sure hope so.
- Batch was 3-for-4 in the red zone, but he was also 1-for-7 on third down. That... that's a pretty horrific conversion rate against one of the worst defenses in the league. In theory, the conversion rate on third down will improve when Roethlisberger comes back, but I'd sure like to see it stay much closer to 50 percent while he's out.
- Tomlin said that Roethlisberger had a shot to play. That means he could be out there, slinging passes and not-quite fully healed against a team that hates him. Against a team that lost their quarterback on an illegal hit the last time these two played. I'm not saying that the Browns players will intentionally try to aggravate Roethlisberger's injury, but they're definitely not going to be pulling any punches. If Ben plays on Sunday, that's bad news.
- The hated Ravens also won. If the Steelers and hated Ravens win on Sunday, then we'll have a 12-4 wild card team and an eight or nine win team hosting them. It's good news that the Steelers will play either Denver or Oakland in the Wild Card round, but it's bad news that they honked away that game against Baltimore in November (which was partially my fault).
- Hines Ward caught four passes, but he needs five more. That's gonna be a stretch unless the starters get pulled early (probably won't happen). The Cincinnati-Baltimore game also got flexed to 4:15, so neither team will know their fate until their game is over. That means lots and lots of quick screens to Hines until he either breaks the record or the Steelers jump out to a big lead. Honestly, I think it's important to get Hines to 1,000 receptions. I think the Steelers can safely cut him with a clear conscience if they get him there. I think he deserves it for all his hard work, determination, and quality play over the last 14 seasons. I also think the Rooneys are crazy if they keep him around in 2012.
- Something about winning three road games to get to the Super Bowl makes me awfully nervous. I know it's been done in the past, but it's been not done more frequently.
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Christmas Comes Early: Rams at Steelers Preview
The St. Louis Rams are an awful team. Yes, everyone in the NFL is talented and they're way better at football than me. Even the worst NFL team could still beat Alabama or LSU. I'm not saying that their players are bad players, they're just bad players by NFL standards. That's about as diplomatically as I can state that.
They went 7-9 last year, then placed 16 guys on injured reserve this season. They lost their top three cornerbacks, two starting wide receivers, and two offensive tackles. They're now 2-12. They have issues on offense, defense, and special teams. They're 25th in scoring defense and dead last in run defense. They're dead last in scoring offense and 30th in total yards. Sam Bradford and AJ Feeley are hurt and defensive end Chris Long (Howie's kid) hasn't practiced the last two days. They're thinking about next season. Steven Jackson and Brandon Lloyd are talented players, but their quarterback is still Kellen Clemens.
I'm not saying the Steelers are an unstoppable force that will maul anyone that stands in their way, but I am saying that there's no way they should lose to this Rams team. The Steelers are at home, they have something to play for (still a shot at a first round bye, technically), and they're a much more talented team that isn't struggled with the injuries St. Louis has. If Roethlisberger's ankle wasn't sprained, this would be about the healthiest the Steelers have been all season.
They're healthy, they're mad they lost on Monday night, and they have something to play for. In addition, this could be Hines Ward's last game at Heinz Field and all the guys in the locker room know that. They'll make sure he comes out a winner.
Now, the signature win for the Rams this season was their upset victory over the Saints in Week 8, when they dominated both sides of the line of scrimmage and sacked Drew Brees a kazillion times. That was with a healthy offensive line and a healthy Chris Long. That was also on artificial turf. At this point in the season, the grass turf at Heinz Field is usually a total mess and footing is dicey, at best. I don't think their linemen will be able to dig in and come after the quarterback (hopefully Dixon) like they did in Week 8 against New Orleans. Even if that happens, they would still need to score enough points on offense to win and I don't think they're capable of that.
Taking out the Saints game, here are their point totals since Week 6: 3, 7, 13, 13, 7, 20, 0, 13, 13. Sure, take out the game against the Bengals and the last three games for the Steelers are: 13, 14, and 3 and they're probably going to be playing with their third string or back-up quarterback. I get that. I do. It's just that the Rams aren't as good on defense as the Chiefs, 49ers, or even the Browns.
They can't score points and they can't keep opponents from scoring. That's why they're 2-12. The Steelers can score points and they can keep opponents from scoring (most weeks), which is why they're 10-4.
I hope Dixon plays, but I'm fine with Batch. I deconstructed Batch last year and endorsed Dixon and I still believe almost all the stuff I said then. It's just that I don't think it makes too much of a difference in whether the Steelers win or lose. If they don't play a horrible, mistake-filled game, they will win. They'll win with Dixon under center, Batch under center, or Roethlisberger under center. Given that, it doesn't make any sense (in my mind) to risk Ben exacerbating his ankle injury.
This prediction assumes that Ben Roethlisberger does not play. But, even if he does, I don't think it will have a huge effect on the score.
Prediction:
Steelers 21, Rams 10
They went 7-9 last year, then placed 16 guys on injured reserve this season. They lost their top three cornerbacks, two starting wide receivers, and two offensive tackles. They're now 2-12. They have issues on offense, defense, and special teams. They're 25th in scoring defense and dead last in run defense. They're dead last in scoring offense and 30th in total yards. Sam Bradford and AJ Feeley are hurt and defensive end Chris Long (Howie's kid) hasn't practiced the last two days. They're thinking about next season. Steven Jackson and Brandon Lloyd are talented players, but their quarterback is still Kellen Clemens.
I'm not saying the Steelers are an unstoppable force that will maul anyone that stands in their way, but I am saying that there's no way they should lose to this Rams team. The Steelers are at home, they have something to play for (still a shot at a first round bye, technically), and they're a much more talented team that isn't struggled with the injuries St. Louis has. If Roethlisberger's ankle wasn't sprained, this would be about the healthiest the Steelers have been all season.
They're healthy, they're mad they lost on Monday night, and they have something to play for. In addition, this could be Hines Ward's last game at Heinz Field and all the guys in the locker room know that. They'll make sure he comes out a winner.
Now, the signature win for the Rams this season was their upset victory over the Saints in Week 8, when they dominated both sides of the line of scrimmage and sacked Drew Brees a kazillion times. That was with a healthy offensive line and a healthy Chris Long. That was also on artificial turf. At this point in the season, the grass turf at Heinz Field is usually a total mess and footing is dicey, at best. I don't think their linemen will be able to dig in and come after the quarterback (hopefully Dixon) like they did in Week 8 against New Orleans. Even if that happens, they would still need to score enough points on offense to win and I don't think they're capable of that.
Taking out the Saints game, here are their point totals since Week 6: 3, 7, 13, 13, 7, 20, 0, 13, 13. Sure, take out the game against the Bengals and the last three games for the Steelers are: 13, 14, and 3 and they're probably going to be playing with their third string or back-up quarterback. I get that. I do. It's just that the Rams aren't as good on defense as the Chiefs, 49ers, or even the Browns.
They can't score points and they can't keep opponents from scoring. That's why they're 2-12. The Steelers can score points and they can keep opponents from scoring (most weeks), which is why they're 10-4.
I hope Dixon plays, but I'm fine with Batch. I deconstructed Batch last year and endorsed Dixon and I still believe almost all the stuff I said then. It's just that I don't think it makes too much of a difference in whether the Steelers win or lose. If they don't play a horrible, mistake-filled game, they will win. They'll win with Dixon under center, Batch under center, or Roethlisberger under center. Given that, it doesn't make any sense (in my mind) to risk Ben exacerbating his ankle injury.
This prediction assumes that Ben Roethlisberger does not play. But, even if he does, I don't think it will have a huge effect on the score.
Prediction:
Steelers 21, Rams 10
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Weidman's Picks, Week 16
(Click here to see current NFL Pick Em standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)
As if I wasn't dug into a hole as it is, we're in a really crappy part of the season, picks-wise. Nothing is predictable. Teams that are locked up can slack off, great teams can get tired (or be broken as hell like the Steelers), bad teams can be underestimated (or play teams that don't give a shit any more) and so on. Pack lost last week, Colts won - it's "Any Given Sunday" with a vengeance.
Houston at Indy
This should be an easy pick, unless Indy surprises everyone again. I doubt it. Houston wins.
Oakland at Kansas City:
Really close game, and Oakland has screwed me way too many times this year. I'm taking the home team by a hair.
Jacksonville at Tennessee:
Tennessee is at home and is the much better team. They should win this one without much trouble.
Miami at Pats:
Always bet on Brady...especially when he's at home versus a lousy team. Another "easy" pick, the Pats should run away with this one.
Steelers West at Bungles:
I hate to keep picking home teams, and I really hate to pick a rival, but Cincy has played stronger than AZ all season, even if their records aren't much different. Unless AZ really mans up for an upset, they will lose this one.
Denver at Buffalo:
Buffalo started strong and I've been lamenting them ever since, what with their fall from grace. Denver has done everything they can to do the opposite.
Rams at Steelers:
This week hurt. A lot. Also, where they were beat up before, the Steelers are even more damaged now on a short week. They're still going to win.
New York Football Giants at Jets:
I hate to once a freakin' gain take a home team, but I have to. No, seriously - I have to. Stupid two teams being in the same stadium... The Jets almost always end strong, and I know that my buddy Flan is sending serious concern rays their way. That's going to swing the balance.
Minnesota at Washington:
Hey, this picking thing is easy!
Tampa at Carolina:
If there's ever a time to put a lien on your house and bet it on the Panthers, it's this week. Even the Pats are only slightly more favored in their game.
Cleveland at Baltimore:
Oh I wish, I wish, I wish I could take the Brownies in this game. I'll be rooting for them the whole time and will give precisely zero shits if I lose this pick. However, I have a better chance of winning this damned pick 'em pool that I never should have agreed to in the first place.
San Diego at Detroit:
When in doubt...
Philly at Dallas:
Dallas is going to win this by more than one point, no matter what the line is.
San Francisco at Seahawks:
The Niners utterly destroyed us this week. No one has put up more than 75 rushing yards on them all season, no one has rushed into the endzone, they're +45,000 in the turnover battle and the Seattle Seahawks...were a question on Jeopardy tonight (Only team to have the same first 3 letters as their city.) The one point favoring to San Fran is an insult to every good team they've beaten this year.
Chicago at Pack:
Green Bay fell last week, but that's inconsequential. It was like the flaw rumored to be in all Persian rugs just so they won't be perfect. They win.
Atlanta at NOLA:
NOLA still has something to fight for, and they're much better than Atlanta. I'm going to round this out with another home pick.
Houston over Indy
Kansas City over Oakland
Tennessee over Jacksonville
Pats over Miami
Bungles over Steelers West
Denver over Buffalo
Steelers over Rams
Jets over New York Football Giants
Washington over Minnesota
Carolina over Tampa
Baltimore over Cleveland
Detroit over San Diego
Dallas over Philly
San Francisco over Seahawks
Pack over Chicago
NOLA over Atlanta
As if I wasn't dug into a hole as it is, we're in a really crappy part of the season, picks-wise. Nothing is predictable. Teams that are locked up can slack off, great teams can get tired (or be broken as hell like the Steelers), bad teams can be underestimated (or play teams that don't give a shit any more) and so on. Pack lost last week, Colts won - it's "Any Given Sunday" with a vengeance.
Houston at Indy
This should be an easy pick, unless Indy surprises everyone again. I doubt it. Houston wins.
Oakland at Kansas City:
Really close game, and Oakland has screwed me way too many times this year. I'm taking the home team by a hair.
Jacksonville at Tennessee:
Tennessee is at home and is the much better team. They should win this one without much trouble.
Miami at Pats:
Always bet on Brady...especially when he's at home versus a lousy team. Another "easy" pick, the Pats should run away with this one.
Steelers West at Bungles:
I hate to keep picking home teams, and I really hate to pick a rival, but Cincy has played stronger than AZ all season, even if their records aren't much different. Unless AZ really mans up for an upset, they will lose this one.
Denver at Buffalo:
Buffalo started strong and I've been lamenting them ever since, what with their fall from grace. Denver has done everything they can to do the opposite.
Rams at Steelers:
This week hurt. A lot. Also, where they were beat up before, the Steelers are even more damaged now on a short week. They're still going to win.
New York Football Giants at Jets:
I hate to once a freakin' gain take a home team, but I have to. No, seriously - I have to. Stupid two teams being in the same stadium... The Jets almost always end strong, and I know that my buddy Flan is sending serious concern rays their way. That's going to swing the balance.
Minnesota at Washington:
Hey, this picking thing is easy!
Tampa at Carolina:
If there's ever a time to put a lien on your house and bet it on the Panthers, it's this week. Even the Pats are only slightly more favored in their game.
Cleveland at Baltimore:
Oh I wish, I wish, I wish I could take the Brownies in this game. I'll be rooting for them the whole time and will give precisely zero shits if I lose this pick. However, I have a better chance of winning this damned pick 'em pool that I never should have agreed to in the first place.
San Diego at Detroit:
When in doubt...
Philly at Dallas:
Dallas is going to win this by more than one point, no matter what the line is.
San Francisco at Seahawks:
The Niners utterly destroyed us this week. No one has put up more than 75 rushing yards on them all season, no one has rushed into the endzone, they're +45,000 in the turnover battle and the Seattle Seahawks...were a question on Jeopardy tonight (Only team to have the same first 3 letters as their city.) The one point favoring to San Fran is an insult to every good team they've beaten this year.
Chicago at Pack:
Green Bay fell last week, but that's inconsequential. It was like the flaw rumored to be in all Persian rugs just so they won't be perfect. They win.
Atlanta at NOLA:
NOLA still has something to fight for, and they're much better than Atlanta. I'm going to round this out with another home pick.
Houston over Indy
Kansas City over Oakland
Tennessee over Jacksonville
Pats over Miami
Bungles over Steelers West
Denver over Buffalo
Steelers over Rams
Jets over New York Football Giants
Washington over Minnesota
Carolina over Tampa
Baltimore over Cleveland
Detroit over San Diego
Dallas over Philly
San Francisco over Seahawks
Pack over Chicago
NOLA over Atlanta
Keller's Picks, Week 16
(Click here for current NFL Pick Em standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)
I'm looking to add to my lead and make it so that I could lose every game in Week 17 -- with Weidman winning every game -- and still take the season. It occurs to me that we never came up with a tiebreaking procedure.
In the event of a tie, the Championship goes to the guy that won the most individual weeks. In the event of a tie there, the Championship goes to the guy that can recite the alphabet the fastest, without singing the song.
Without further ado, here are my picks for Week 16.
Houston at Indianapolis:
The Colts may have looked frisky last week and the Texans may have looked awful, but TJ Yates just wins football games.
Oakland at Kansas City:
I think Oakland continues to implode, the Chiefs play tough at home, and Kyle Orton, strange as it may sound, still has a better QBERT rating than Carson Palmer. Also, the Raiders are a mess and the Kansas City players, for whatever reason, seem to want to rally around Romeo Crennel. Maybe they lost a bet. It surely can't be that they want him to their their coach, right? Or did everyone forget that he was the worst coach Cleveland ever had (which is saying something)?
Jacksonville at Tennessee:
The Titans gave one away last week, but they still have something to play for and they're still the home team. Also, Chris Johnson looks like he might not be dead after all and Matt Hasselbeck should be available.
Miami at New England:
Never bet against Tom Brady at home. It's good to know that you can still count on some things. Unless you can't.
Arizona at Cincinnati:
I was going to take the Bengals, but I feel as though I can't pick against those pesky Cardinals. I'm tired of picking against them and then watching them screw everything up. The Bengals are starting to wear down and the passing game isn't the same without AJ Green in the line-up. Interesting side note: John Skelton is 4-1 as a starter. If he wins his next two games, some team is going to trade a second round pick for him. It could happen. Just ask Kevin Kolb.
Denver at Buffalo:
After a brief run-in with reality last week, Football Jesus resurrects himself against the Bills. More importantly, Buffalo is a horrible team.
St. Louis at Steelers:
I don't care who plays quarterback. Mike Tomlin and the veteran leadership on this team don't let them drop this one, especially at home. St. Louis may have the worst team in the league. They're on their third quarterback and they've put 415 guys on IR; this from a team that wasn't that great to start with.
NY Giants at NY Jets:
When it doubt, take the... what's that? They play in the same stadium? The NFL schedule makers decided to make this a home game because, "Shut up, that's why"? Got it. Well, the Giants suck at home. This is about the time of year that everyone writes the Jets off and then they close the season by crushing two good teams. The Giants just happen to be the first in line.
Minnesota at Washington:
You know what? Sexy Rexy showed me something last week. The Redskins passing game is starting to find its groove. Quick stat. Whose stats are these: 110.4 rating, 69.1 completion percentage, 3,646 yards passing, 31 touchdowns, and six interceptions? Answer: Quarterbacks who have faced the Vikings this season. Their pass defense is historically awful, is what I'm saying.
Tampa at Carolina:
I hate picking the Panthers, but I can't, in good conscience, pick the Bucs. With the recent spate of coach firings, how does Raheem Morris still have a job? Does he have some compromising pictures of Malcolm Glazer or something? Maybe Glazer's focusing too much of his time on Manchester United.
Cleveland at Baltimore:
Much as I hope the hated Ravens lose, it ain't gonna happen. This is because Cleveland sucks.
San Diego at Detroit:
What do my grandparents and Philip Rivers have in common? They're both money in December. Matthew Stafford has used up all his miracles and Jesus likes Tebow more anyway.
Philadelphia at Dallas:
The Eagles finally woke up and are playing to their potential, Andy Reid is coaching for his job, and Romo + December + Garrett is an extremely beatable combination, even at home. This is my shakiest pick of the week, by the way. Call it a gut feeling.
San Francisco at Seattle:
I think the 49ers keep rolling. They're a great football team and Jim Harbaugh is so competitive that he would keep his starters in to win at Parcheesi.
Chicago at Green Bay:
Hey, I love a good upset as much as the next guy, but the Packers are too good a team to drop a game at home to a McCown brother.
Atlanta at NOLA:
Saints are 6-0 at home and they've been crushing everyone that comes to the Super Dome. I think this is a high scoring game with a lot of fantasy points in play, but NOLA ultimately prevails. Bonus Prediction: Drew Brees sets the record for passing yards in a season on Monday night.
Line of the Week:
St. Louis (+15.5) at Steelers. We don't know who the Steelers are starting at quarterback. Sure, the Rams are awful, but 16 points worse than Charlie Batch's squad? I think not. Take the points.
Moneyline of the Week:
San Diego (+120) at Detroit. Chargers are on fire, Lions aren't. Gotta go with the hot team on this one.
Over/Under of the Week:
Atlanta at New Orleans (53, OVER). I'm feeling a 35-31 barn burner on this one. Write it down. Or, ya know, bookmark this page. You heard it here first.
Houston over Indianapolis
Tennessee over Jacksonville
Kansas City over Oakland
New England over Miami
Arizona over Cincinnati
Denver over Buffalo
Steelers over St. Louis
NY Jets over NY Giants
Washington over Minnesota
Carolina over Tampa
Baltimore over Cleveland
San Diego over Detroit
Philadelphia over Dallas
San Francisco over Seattle
Green Bay over Chicago
NOLA over Atlanta
I'm looking to add to my lead and make it so that I could lose every game in Week 17 -- with Weidman winning every game -- and still take the season. It occurs to me that we never came up with a tiebreaking procedure.
In the event of a tie, the Championship goes to the guy that won the most individual weeks. In the event of a tie there, the Championship goes to the guy that can recite the alphabet the fastest, without singing the song.
Without further ado, here are my picks for Week 16.
Houston at Indianapolis:
The Colts may have looked frisky last week and the Texans may have looked awful, but TJ Yates just wins football games.
Oakland at Kansas City:
I think Oakland continues to implode, the Chiefs play tough at home, and Kyle Orton, strange as it may sound, still has a better QBERT rating than Carson Palmer. Also, the Raiders are a mess and the Kansas City players, for whatever reason, seem to want to rally around Romeo Crennel. Maybe they lost a bet. It surely can't be that they want him to their their coach, right? Or did everyone forget that he was the worst coach Cleveland ever had (which is saying something)?
Jacksonville at Tennessee:
The Titans gave one away last week, but they still have something to play for and they're still the home team. Also, Chris Johnson looks like he might not be dead after all and Matt Hasselbeck should be available.
Miami at New England:
Never bet against Tom Brady at home. It's good to know that you can still count on some things. Unless you can't.
Arizona at Cincinnati:
I was going to take the Bengals, but I feel as though I can't pick against those pesky Cardinals. I'm tired of picking against them and then watching them screw everything up. The Bengals are starting to wear down and the passing game isn't the same without AJ Green in the line-up. Interesting side note: John Skelton is 4-1 as a starter. If he wins his next two games, some team is going to trade a second round pick for him. It could happen. Just ask Kevin Kolb.
Denver at Buffalo:
After a brief run-in with reality last week, Football Jesus resurrects himself against the Bills. More importantly, Buffalo is a horrible team.
St. Louis at Steelers:
I don't care who plays quarterback. Mike Tomlin and the veteran leadership on this team don't let them drop this one, especially at home. St. Louis may have the worst team in the league. They're on their third quarterback and they've put 415 guys on IR; this from a team that wasn't that great to start with.
NY Giants at NY Jets:
When it doubt, take the... what's that? They play in the same stadium? The NFL schedule makers decided to make this a home game because, "Shut up, that's why"? Got it. Well, the Giants suck at home. This is about the time of year that everyone writes the Jets off and then they close the season by crushing two good teams. The Giants just happen to be the first in line.
Minnesota at Washington:
You know what? Sexy Rexy showed me something last week. The Redskins passing game is starting to find its groove. Quick stat. Whose stats are these: 110.4 rating, 69.1 completion percentage, 3,646 yards passing, 31 touchdowns, and six interceptions? Answer: Quarterbacks who have faced the Vikings this season. Their pass defense is historically awful, is what I'm saying.
Tampa at Carolina:
I hate picking the Panthers, but I can't, in good conscience, pick the Bucs. With the recent spate of coach firings, how does Raheem Morris still have a job? Does he have some compromising pictures of Malcolm Glazer or something? Maybe Glazer's focusing too much of his time on Manchester United.
Cleveland at Baltimore:
Much as I hope the hated Ravens lose, it ain't gonna happen. This is because Cleveland sucks.
San Diego at Detroit:
What do my grandparents and Philip Rivers have in common? They're both money in December. Matthew Stafford has used up all his miracles and Jesus likes Tebow more anyway.
Philadelphia at Dallas:
The Eagles finally woke up and are playing to their potential, Andy Reid is coaching for his job, and Romo + December + Garrett is an extremely beatable combination, even at home. This is my shakiest pick of the week, by the way. Call it a gut feeling.
San Francisco at Seattle:
I think the 49ers keep rolling. They're a great football team and Jim Harbaugh is so competitive that he would keep his starters in to win at Parcheesi.
Chicago at Green Bay:
Hey, I love a good upset as much as the next guy, but the Packers are too good a team to drop a game at home to a McCown brother.
Atlanta at NOLA:
Saints are 6-0 at home and they've been crushing everyone that comes to the Super Dome. I think this is a high scoring game with a lot of fantasy points in play, but NOLA ultimately prevails. Bonus Prediction: Drew Brees sets the record for passing yards in a season on Monday night.
Line of the Week:
St. Louis (+15.5) at Steelers. We don't know who the Steelers are starting at quarterback. Sure, the Rams are awful, but 16 points worse than Charlie Batch's squad? I think not. Take the points.
Moneyline of the Week:
San Diego (+120) at Detroit. Chargers are on fire, Lions aren't. Gotta go with the hot team on this one.
Over/Under of the Week:
Atlanta at New Orleans (53, OVER). I'm feeling a 35-31 barn burner on this one. Write it down. Or, ya know, bookmark this page. You heard it here first.
Houston over Indianapolis
Tennessee over Jacksonville
Kansas City over Oakland
New England over Miami
Arizona over Cincinnati
Denver over Buffalo
Steelers over St. Louis
NY Jets over NY Giants
Washington over Minnesota
Carolina over Tampa
Baltimore over Cleveland
San Diego over Detroit
Philadelphia over Dallas
San Francisco over Seattle
Green Bay over Chicago
NOLA over Atlanta
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