Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Buccos After the Deadline

Well, the trade deadline has come and gone with very little fanfare and zero blockbuster trades from your Buccos.  Some say that management wasn't behind this team and they're still building for the long term, some say that too many moves would've upset team chemistry, I say that I'm disappointed that, when it was clearly established that the Pirates were in a big time buying position in late July for the first time in 20 years, they didn't do more.  They needed a significant upgrade to the line-up and they were not able to get it done.  Hunter Pence was available for the second time in two years and they didn't get it done.  There were a number of deals and a lot of noise, but ultimately the Pirates fell flat at the deadline.  There are still moves that could be made by the end of August, but I have a feeling that any future moves will fall in line with what we saw the last few days.

It could be that no one wanted to make a deal with the Pirates if Gerrit Cole wasn't involved and they didn't want to mortgage their future that severely.  I can respect that.  But, it's possible that we'll never know whether management was just being responsible, or if they were just paralyzed by fear, indecision, and unfamiliarity with the situation they found themselves in.

Having said that, here's what I think about the moves that were actually made, as opposed to the moves I hoped they would make.

The only guy that I will miss is Brad Lincoln.  As I mentioned previously, I thought he was their secret weapon -- an effective pitcher that could get lefties and righties out and could work either as a seventh inning set-up guy or a long reliever.  I thought he brought a lot of skill a versatility to the bullpen, but whatever.  I have difficulty giving up on guys that were drafted high and have a bunch of upside.

Speaking of upside, I like Travis Snider.  A lot.  What I've read on the Internet says that he has a long swing and he's had issues getting to balls in the strike zone.  He's only 24 and such things can be fixed, mainly by compacting/shortening his swing and taking out wasted motion that takes away from bat speed.  Andrew McCutcheon happens to have worked on this in the offseason.  It's the batting coach's job to work with Snider on his swing, but I'm sure that Cutch will be able to offer some valuable guidance to Snider based on personal experience.  Above all else, my friend Keith e-mailed me earlier today and said that Snider compares favorably to Brian Giles.  Keith knows everything about baseball and I trust his judgement, so I have faith in Snider.

Gorkys Hernandez was having trouble adjusting to major league pitching and was being used primarily as a defensive substitute and pinch runner, which is a waste of a roster spot.  I'm fine with his departure.  Gaby Sanchez gives them a right-hander to platoon with Garrett Jones, which made Casey McGehee redundant.  McGehee was then traded to the Yankees for Chad Qualls.

Qualls is a setup guy and would presumably be the replacement for Lincoln.  He's struggled the last couple of seasons, but he could experience a renaissance away from the AL and their mean, nasty designated hitters, like AJ Burnett has.  I mean, I don't think lightning will strike twice in that regard, but if he can improve like Burnett has... yeah, I still miss Brad Lincoln.

The bottom line is that this team still needs their starting pitching to continue to shine in order to stay competitive and win games.  The Reds and Cardinals didn't significantly upgrade their rosters, either, which means that everyone is pretty much working with what they started with for the balance of the season.

If Cutch and James McDonald can keep from regressing (which they both did last season), Neil Walker can continue to stay around .300, the tandem of Jones/Sanchez is good for 30 home runs this season, Pedro Alvarez keeps hitting the ball hard (when he hits it), and there aren't any injuries or collapses in the starting rotation, this team can make a legitimate run at the division title or the Wild Card.

But... that's a lot of "ifs" that weren't addressed at the deadline.

Monday, July 30, 2012

Playoffs Round One Recap

Well, if there's anything this weekend's games taught us, it's that A.) anything can happen in the playoffs, and B.) I can't pick playoff games worth a damn. I went 1-3 in these games, and almost went 0-4.

Utah vs Talons
In one of the later games, the announcer pointed out that the Blaze "dismantled" the Talons. At 35-34, this is a bit unfair to Garcia and the Talons. It would be much better said that the Blaze "survived" the Talons. This season, the Talons have averaged 57 pts a game, and the Blaze 63ish, and neither got close to that.

This game was supposed to be a match up between two of the greatest QBs ever to play, but it ended up being all about the defense. The fact that the total score only slightly surpassed these individual averages shows how much of a defensive battle this game was. Both QBs got sacked, both got picked (twice for Grady) and the pressure was on. Also, the Blaze only converted 4 of 10 3rd downs and 1 of 5 4ths. Garcia was comparable. So, again, the defense came up strong.

In the end, it came down to one point. One point between victory and the (likely) end to Garcia's career as a player.

On a side note, as a Power fan, there was one player that had a great night and was fun to watch. The crowd thought so, too:


Voodoo at Soul
Sure, Philly was supposed to win this one, and sure, they did - but they should be ashamed of their play in this one. Down to the end, it was anyone's game, and that should not have been the case between the #1 team in the league and a 4-seed that got into the playoffs by attrition. It was a sloppy game all around, with both teams giving up around 50 yards in penalties. One drive in particular kinda sums this up:


Pictured here: Not how the play was drawn up.

That's a little blurry, but the important part is that, due to penalties, it took seven plays and three negated turnovers to accomplish 10 yards to a touchdown. This was just the most blatant example of a problem that was systemic to the entire game. It got even uglier at the end of the game when two Voodoo players got themselves ejected (I wish I could say it was the first time this season.)

Yes, the blame and sloppy play goes both ways, but the Soul are the much better team. They're better than this, and they can't play that sloppy next week if they want to go to the big game. Another concern is that they lost their kicker to a groin pull late in the game. If they don't get that sorted out before next weekend, there's going to be trouble.

Fun fact: All season, I've been noticing these two nuns that sit in the front row of the endzone section at Wells Fargo. Besides the fact that there is something inherently awesome about a couple of nuns being die-hard Arena fans, these two have caught more balls than have ever even come into my section at Consol. So, either the Lord likes souvenirs, or Dirty Dan is trying to earn points Upstairs. (Except that he pegged one in the face this week.)


Georgia at Jacksonville
So, just like another team farther down this list, the Force learned how hard it is to beat a team three times in a season.

For most of this game, it looked like the Sharks were firmly in the driver's seat. They went into half up, then recovered a botched Force onside kick and stormed into the lead. The Force made a hell of a comeback and closed in on - and then surpassed - the Shark's lead in the fourth. Down to the end, the Sharks had the ball and not much time left and then it happened.

All season, I've found myself missing Bernard Morris here in Pittsburgh until It happens. Regular readers may know that It is a fumble. Either he holds on too long, or just doesn't cover the ball and he gets stripped/drops it. Well, this week was no exception. With seconds left, Bernie Mo got tackled and the ball got away. Luckily, Jacksonville fell on it and kept it, but at a significant loss of yards. Morris's next pass went incomplete, bringing up forth and forever with 6 seconds left.

Remember when we played the Sharks last week and I said that their kicker was frickin' killing us with his distance and accuracy? Well, with the score at 56-55 Force, Capozzoli took the field, looking at 51 yards.

51.

NFL kickers have trouble with that, and their uprights are twice as far apart. Well, I can't adequately describe what happened, so:


From the Arena Football page.


Cats at Ratts
Funny thing is, although this was a hard-fought, entertaining game, there isn't a lot to say about it. Both teams played the game they were supposed to play, and the energy level was what you would expect from from a heated rivalry like this. The Cat's defense intercepted Davila, the Ratts intercepted Greib. Explosive plays happened. Big stops were achieved. It was a great game. In the end, the Cats discovered how hard it is to beat a team three times in one season.

The score was close at 51-48, but it easily could have been a wider gap - and reversed. The Cats managed to pick Davila 4 times to the Rattlers 2. Who says turovers win games? Much like the other games in this review, it was a "survival" game, but it wasn't one were either team failed to play up to their potential. Much like the first game of the weekend, this might have been the end of the road for an aging quarterback. If it is, Greib can know that he went out on a game to be proud of.

Thursday, July 26, 2012

Playoff Preview, Round One

To close out the season, we've got a few weeks of playoffs that the Power will, sadly, not be participating in. It was a rough season, but they salvaged more than I would have thought they would. Even so, the team set several new franchise records:

From arenafootball.com:

  • MIKE "Joystick" WASHINGTON set single-season franchise records for receptions (115), receiving yards (2,142), receiving touchdowns (39) and points (206).
  • PJ "Superman" BERRY set single-season franchise records for kickoff return yards (2,024), kickoff return touchdowns (2) and combined kick return yards (2,040).
  • DOMINIE "Sack Attack" PITTMAN set the single-season franchise record for sacks (5.5).
  • CHRIS "Gingabread" LeFLORE set single-season franchise records for interceptions (9) and missed field goal return yards (25).
  • BRYAN "Wasn't that a Beach Boy?" WILLIAMS set the single-season franchise record for tackles (66).
  • GEOFF "Our Best Kicker" BOYER set the single-season franchise record for field goals made (4). (This record is sad for so many reasons, I don't know where to start, so I'll move on.)
So, yeah. I mean, it might feel like polishing a turd, but records are records. Our record doesn't fairly reflect how hard these guys played their asses off this year. These might not be league records, but they're Power records and they earned them. Besides, the franchise is two seasons old, and we need to start somewhere.

Now, on to the playoffs.

Utah vs Talons
To start the ball rolling, the NFL Network is starting out with one of the best games of the first round - The Blaze trying to finally beat the Talons. They've met up twice so far, and they've been very close games both times. Over the course of two meetings, the Blaze has lost by a total of 9 points. The Talons have won 11 of their last 12 games (and one can hardly blame them for taking it easy last week) and the Blaze have had a late-season surge of their own.

Normally, a 1-4 match-up is kind of a reward to the 1st seed - almost a pass in the first round. Not so here. Arron Garcia is one of the best QBs to ever play the game, and looking to repeat. Tommy Grady is the best of the younger crowd, and the Blaze travels well.

So, how do I call this? Can't just go with the home team, because the Blaze does so well on the road. Can't go with the quarterback, because we have old, tested and experienced. I can't even go with the QB who makes gutsy plays. I'm going to have to have to go with turnovers. The Talons are +5 and the Blaze are -6 on the season, and turnovers were the deciding factor in the last two meetings between them. Based on that, I have to take the Talons - but if I'm down to the turnover battle, it's iffy.


Georgia at Jacksonville
I have not been impressed with the Force all season. They've been streaky at best, losing games they should win (Yay, Power!) and winning games they should lose (Chicago?) However, I think I need to pick them in this game based solely on how they match up with the Sharks.

Jacksonville is defending the title this year, but that means nothing. Even on the NFL level, there's not a lot of back-to-back wins. In the Arena League, every team starts 0-0 on week one, and that's that. I'm not going to deny that they've played hard and earned their place in the post season.

However, the simple fact is that they've gotten crushed in both meetings with the Force this season. If it were close, I'd say there's always the chance of them getting revenge, but they've been outscored by the Force to the tune of 45 points. Georgia might not be the better team, but they've had Jacksonville's number. The only hiccup is that Jacksonville has not yet faced Bryant Moniz at QB yet, and he hasn't seen the post season. Jitters could change things, but I'll still take Georgia.

Voodoo at Soul
New Orleans made a very loud statement this year, coming back from a season like we just lived through to go to the post season. They even beat the Soul week one by a point. However, I just don't see them winning this one. The Soul has set countless records this year and have been nigh unstoppable. They've beaten some of the best teams in the league, and they're going all the way to the big game in my opinion.

The Voodoo, on the other hand, still needs to mature. They've had big games, but also big losses. They made it to the post season in a weak division with a losing record. Finally, Rocco has too much of a habit of blowing games with silly mistakes.

Philly wins, or it's the biggest upset of the season.

Cats at Ratts
This one is just as hard to call as the Talons/Blaze game and for almost the same reasons. Nick Davila is trying to get his team back to the Arena Bowl, whereas Mark Grieb is trying to pull a Garcia and win the big one before he retires - a scene Davila is familiar with.

Both times they met this season - and these teams hate each other - the Cats won, but only by a total of 8 points. The Ratts are perfectly capable of beating them, they just haven't this year. Same thing with what I said about the Sharks - the Sabercats just have their number....barely. This is the pick that I'm most unsure of, but I'm going to go with my gut feeling a few months ago and take the Cats.

Now, I was all ready to put a bracket picture here. I'm sure about my picks in the American Conference -Georgia and Philly will advance, Philly will rout Georgia and it's on to New Orleans. The National Conference, however, is just too hard to call. I'm confident on my calls, but even then, next week would be just as hard to tell between the Talons and the Cats. Talons and Ratts (which the odds are probably on) is equally hard. Blaze and Ratts...eeeeh. The only way to be sure is the Blaze and Sabercats - I'd call the Blaze in that, but it's the least likely outcome.

So, we'll see come Monday.

Sunday, July 22, 2012

Feeding Frenzy

*sigh* Don't worry, Power. The big, mean season can't hurt you anymore.

This week's loss came at the end of a long, brutal season where 5 wins was actually more than we had the right to hope for. The Power was never really in this game, so there's not a lot to talk about. Of the keys to victory that I laid out in the preview, the Power really didn't accomplish any of them.

Due to some excellent kicking on the part of the Sharks, PJ Berry didn't get many opportunities to make huge returns, and this was obvious right from the beginning. The Power didn't start farther than the 5 yard line on their first three possessions, and they never converted. The Sharks scored three touchdowns before we made our first first down. It was pretty damn obvious right from there that we weren't going to win this one.

Andrico Hines barely made it out of the first quarter before Randall got a shot. He didn't do a hell of a lot better, completing only about 50% on his passes, with 4 touchdowns and a pick. A bright part was the fact that he rushed for two, which is always fun to watch.

Defense had a pretty big breakdown in this game. They only came away with one pick and weren't able to really pressure the slippery Bernard Morris. Our offensive line is also going to get put under this header, because the whole game, the blind side didn't even seem to be in the game.

As for kicking, the less said, the better. Gates was back - probably because it just didn't matter anymore - and his kicking was weaker and less accurate this week. It was so bad that, when a National Guardsmen put one through the uprights during an on-field intermission contest, even the arena announcer said, "Sign him!"

It wasn't all bad, however. Superman put three up on the evening, which is great for him. (Hopefully no scouts were there.) On one of them, he pulled down his socks to show a second pair of Superman ones under them, complete with mini capes. Also, the Power's last score of the season was to him, with a followup two point conversion as well.

In the end, we booted it deep instead of on-siding it, and Jacksonville had the decency to run the clock, even though they had time outs remaining. There's always next season, and we can hope for the season we deserve then.

Elsewhere in the league
  • It was a close but meaningless game in Cleveland, and the Gladiators actually pulled off the win against the Rush, 60-54.
  • New Orleans was in control of most of their final game of the regular season, but as often happens, they beat themselves at the end with silly turnovers. 55-48 Georgia, and NOLA falls to 4th seed - so, they're still in the playoffs.
  • Iowa managed to make a statement with their last game of the season, beating the Talons with a last second field goal, ending their 11 game winning streak. I guess the Talons will just have to settle for 14-4 and a #1 seed.
  • KC lost to AZ, 47-22. They end the season 3-15.
  • Spokane decided TB's fate Saturday, knocking them out of the playoffs, 63-53.
  • Orlando salvaged one last win for the season to tie KC's record with a win over the Mustangs, 49-39.
  • Finally, Philly decided that there is no such thing as a meaningless game - they wanted to prove that they were better than Tommy Grady and the Utah Blaze...and they did. 69-34.
Tune in Thursday for a full breakdown of the playoffs as the Arena League begins to wind down for the year.

Thursday, July 19, 2012

Blood in the Water

Well, here we are already: Last game of the season.

And, we get to leave the season the way we entered it: On the NFL Network, prime time and nationally televised. (Hopefully with a win as well.) It would be really hard for them to flex us out of the slot as we're the only game Friday night.

For our last outing, we're facing off against the defending Arena Bowl champion Sharks along with our former quarterback, Bernard Morris. Now, yes, they won the big game last year, and yes, they're already locked for the playoffs - but this is not the team that mopped the field with us last year. They're tough, but beatable...maybe.

The only reason they are where they are is that they've been on a tear the last several games and had a late season surge. Bernard Morris has gotten a lot more comfortable in his skin and has held off some of his main weaknesses: Mainly the fumbles and holding the ball too long. Both are things that we saw last year when he played for us, and he had it happen a fair amount earlier this season.

Now, however, he's been getting in the habit of throwing perfect games. That's what we need to change. He still hangs in the pocket a little too long (not near as much as he used to) and the Power needs to exploit that. When he gets hit when he falls back or when he's making a scramble (he has almost a hundred more rushing yards than the next closest Jacksonville rusher) he doesn't always protect the ball very well. We've had a few games second half of the season where we brought the pressure hard on the QB.

Next is his pick-free games. That's always a concern, especially when the Power are absolutely ridiculously on the wrong side of the turnover ratio. If we want to ruin Bernie Mo's record for the night, we need look no farther than Christian Wise. The last two weeks, he has snagged the ball at least three times a game (whether they got called back or not.) As long as this hasn't gone to his head, he can be the turning point.

Coverage needs to be on Jeron Harvey and Josh Philpart, as they have been Mo's preferred targets recently. Also, we're going to have to be ready to cover the hell out of Terrance Smith and LaRoche Jackson on returns. Who knows what we can expect from the kicking game this week, but I think we need to at least be ready for soft kickoffs and spotty PATs. This means being prepared to shut returns down (something we're not good at), solid 3rd and 4th down lock-downs (something we've been doing well) and think about two point conversions (something we can do at times.)

Bottom line is that we need to fly in the face of everything the AFL stands for and concentrate on our strengths at defense. If PJ Berry, Mike Washington and Andrico Hines are on their game, the offense can take care of itself. We need to just make sure to keep Bernie Mo and the Sharks from doing the same.

Let's go Power and let's bookend the season with wins.


Elsewhere in the league
  • First up on Saturday is Chicago at Cleveland in a game that pretty much no one cares about. Neither team has anything to play for, so I'm going to pick my Chicago Rush because I can and because screw Cleveland. Also, Russ Michna's the better quarterback, if I need a reason.
  • Big game for the Voodoo when they host the Force. They've split the series with Jacksonville, but beat them by more points than they lost by and have the better division record. If they win and the Sharks lose, they snag first place in the South. They're also at home against a hot-and-cold Force. If they lose and TB wins, they're out, so they need to bring it. I'm taking the Voodoo because, even though it didn't work against TB, they're the better team.
  • Talons at Iowa is another meaningless game. Iowa's out, Talons are in charge and there's nothing on the line besides being a division matchup. Iowa's at home and want the same thing we do - close their season with a win at home. However, unless the Sharks play soft to preserve themselves, the Barnstormers won't get their wish.
  • AZ gets a softie to close out the season by hosting the Command.
  • Tampa Bay has their work cut out for them. They need to travel to Spokane and need the win to have a shot at the post season. Their road record has been crap and Spokane - though streaky - is really good. I'm taking the Shock to win and the Storm to reserve tee time.
  • Not much to say about the next game aside from the fact that the Mustangs should be able to end their season on a high note. It's a road game and the Preds are dangerous...but just like us, they're easy to overlook this year.
  • Finally, Utah travels to Philly. Utah needs the win a lot more than the Soul does, because first place in the division is on the line. Normally, I'd say that a team in Philly's position is best served by rolling over. The Blaze is strong, has one of the best offenses in the league, possibly the best quarterback and are hungry for a win. Philly has nothing to gain in regards to the post season, and everything to lose in regards to injuries. However, Philly never says die. I'm still going to take the Blaze.

Sunday, July 15, 2012

The Force Was Weak in this One

That's how it's done!

As one friend of Keller's and mine made sure to point out, this game was meaningless. Well, that might have been true for us, but not so much for the Force. The South division loves three-way ties, and this loss bounced the Force down to 3rd place, tied with NOLA and Tampa Bay. One more slip down, and they don't go to the playoffs - and they have to play NOLA next week.

So, what I'm getting at is, even Debbie Downer above can't take this victory away from us by saying it was meaningless for both teams and Georgia just laid down. They needed this win, and they dropped the ball - literally and figuratively.

I'm not 100% sure if Georgia played really sloppy, or if the Power just made them look that way, because this game was pretty firmly in Pittsburgh's hands the whole game.

Hines came out and showed fully what he's capable of - finally. He was 21 for 30, threw for 266 yards, 6 touchdowns and - yes - zero interceptions. That's as close to perfect as we're likely to see. He was confident, took his time (without over doing it) and made the connections. This includes making a perfect pass after a touchdown up to the luxury boxes to none other than Hines Ward. Hines to Hines reception. Love it.

Receiving was mainly the Joystick and Superman show. Both of them counted for 4 touchdowns - Washington straight up and Berry got two in the air and two on the ground. Joystick was textbook all night, fielding them cleanly, whereas Berry pulled them off with style. On one of his touchdowns, the crowd all turned against him and started booing. Berry flashed that grin of his and lifted his jersey, showing the Superman logo beneath.

The big stars of the evening, however, were on defense. This is what won us the game, even more than the near-flawless performances on offense. Georgia only converted 5 of 9 3rd downs, and we fully stopped them on all 3 4ths. Christian Wise continued to make himself my favorite member of the defense (sorry, Gingabread. You still rock.) He hauled in two big interceptions that the offense was able to convert into points (one TD and one FG) and would have had another, had it not been called back.

The only downsides on the evening were familiar - albeit, watered down - ones: Kicking and stupid mistakes. The latter came during the longest, most annoying series of downs in the game. Coverage was blown, and Georgia returned a kickoff to the 2. What should have been a quick score after that dragged on forever. First, they completed the pass for the TD...but got called for offensive pass interference. Then they threw for the TD and...got called for offensive pass interference. They completed a pass (finally), almost got there and then blew the next three tries. So where was the mistake for us? Well, after that first pass, Williams got way too chippy, threw a punch and got ejected from the game. In most games, a defensive loss like that coulda killed us, but thankfully the team picked up the slack.

Kicking. Well, what can I say? It's not a Power review if I don't bitch about kicking. Boyer got the boot, and a new booter was called in. His name is...screw it, who cares? As the announcers said, he probably won't be here next week (and then they gave out the coach's email address.) Sure, he made all but one PAT and converted a FG...but his kickoffs were weak as hell. To put it in perspective, Berry was averaging about 15 yards a return. CJ Johnson, on the other hand, averaged over 30. This was because Nobody-Ass McKickypants never even made the net in this game and dropped all his kicks right in Johnson's hands.

Oh well - we beat the tar out of them (58-41.) At one point, we hit exactly a 31 point lead, and it was nice to know that only one team had ever come back from that.

Us.


Elsewhere in the league
  • For some reason, still unknown, the league decided to show Cleveland/Utah as the featured game this week, and as I suspected, it wasn't really exciting at all. Utah completely stomped the Gladiators, and ended their hopes of the playoffs. 83-63 Blaze
  • The game they didn't show - and the Ustream feed cut out on - was the Rattlers at the Talons, both looking for first place. These teams are super well matched, and now stand at a win a piece - and as mentioned, will likely meet in the playoffs at some point. The final, that I would have loved to have watched, was 62-61 Talons.
  • The game of Orlando at Jacksonville was never in question, despite the possibility of the Preds pulling an upset against one of their hated rivals. In the end, the Sharks pulled off the win 48-30 and secured a place in the post season again.
  • The Voodoo should have won in Tampa Bay, and they didn't give up without a fight. This battle went to OT, where the excitement didn't stop. NOLA won the toss and quickly went 0-3 on their attempts. Rocco made one last all-or-nothing Hail Mary to Bush for the TD. Tampa Bay responded by quickly moving back down the field themselves. The gutsy call was to go for 2. Complete it, they win. Miss, they lose. They made it, and the game ended 78-77 TB.
  • The less said about the Shock at Command, the better. The Shock were a team hoping for the playoffs, and would have made it in nearly any other division and in any other year with their record. This week, they won by one point (49-48) to the worst team in the league because of a missed FG. Pathetic.
  • Chicago pulled off a win for their morale against the Mustangs, 57-54.
  • Finally, the Sabercats hosted the Barnstormers. There is a lot of speculation that aging great Mark Greib might retire after this season (though, he's kinda the Favre of the AFL), and if so, this might have been his last home game with the Cats. Well, good for him, they pulled it off 57-48.

Thursday, July 12, 2012

Power Hopes to Play Spoiler

Well, we're deep into garbage time at this point, and the main thing we have left going for us is to play spoiler for the Georgia Force. There are a number of different scenarios for them in various playoff spots - but they mainly hinge on them winning this week. So, let's beat them, why not?

Last time we played, it was really close. The downsides of the last match-up were as follows:

They contained Berry really well: A lot of teams have done that this year, but his yards-per-return have improved since that game. He's a lot more comfortable in his role and is a cornerstone of our offense and special teams. Hopefully, it won't be as much of an issue.

Fumbles and interceptions: Randall threw a few picks in the game and that hurt us a lot. Unfortunately, he hasn't gotten a lot better at that, and Hines has the same problem. There's not a lot we can do about that - it's going to be what it's going to be. On the other hand, Joystick was having a lot of trouble hanging onto the ball at that point - thankfully that has gotten better.

Kicking: We lost by a field goal and had some lousy kicking. I mean, Boyer had a bad week last week, but he still kicks better than the Vampire did - and he tackles pretty well, too. As I stated in my review, we statistically outplayed the hell out of them. Kicking and turnovers killed us. Also, the QB they had last time - RJ Archer - is a much better QB than their current one (probably why Archer got signed by the Detroit Lions.) Their current guy was delivering pizzas until recently. (Glad it wasn't bagging groceries.)

Even though we're on the road, I think we have a shot - or at least as much of a shot as we've had in a few of our recent match-ups.

Elsewhere in the league
  • For some unknown reason, the NFL Network thinks that the Utah/Cleveland matchup is the more stimulating game this week and are airing that instead of the INSANE matchup of the Rats and Talons. Utah has no excuse to not win this one given the way Cleveland has been playing.
  • Not airing on the NFL Network is the powerhouse combo of Arizona and the Talons. Last time they played each other on the Rattlers home turf, the Talons got decisively beat. Now, they clinch the #1 spot with a win over the Rattlers and they're at home. The Ratts need the win to have any shot at that spot. So, aside from all that, these two teams are more than likely going to meet up again in the playoffs, so this is not only a preview, but it's probably going to determine who gets home field in that. This is a coin flip. I want to say the Rattlers, but logic tells me to take the Talons at home.
  • On Saturday, Orlando has another shot at the upset and spoiler role as they travel to Jacksonville. A chance, but not a likelihood. I'm taking the Sharks.
  • Next up is the Voodoo traveling to Tampa Bay in a big division game. Oh, I really don't know what to say on this one, besides the fact that I hate picks this time of year. I'm saying to pick NOLA - and I really believe that - but it's tough. They're the better team, the more consistent team and they've beaten TB already. However, TB is fighting for their lives and rarely loses at home.
  • Spokane beats KC.
  • The Chicago/Milwaukee game means nothing to anyone. So...I'd like to pick Chicago, but they struggle on the road, and the Mustangs are stronger than their record. Mustangs.
  • Big game for the Sabercats in the late slot. They thwumped the Barnstormers on the road last time and should be able to handle them at home - and they need the win.
For a more in depth view of the seeding possibilities, go to the source. I'm not going to recap it all here - basically it boils down to a mess in the South and seeding in the National. Things will hopefully clear up a bit after this week.

Monday, July 09, 2012

Storm Knocks Out Power

The Power suffered another heart-breaking loss at home in their second-to-last game in Consol for this season. Once again, it was a loss made harder by the fact that we should have won it - on several levels - but missed it by that much in the end. Personally, I think the big responsibility for it was some very bad coaching calls at the end of the game, but more on that later.

The team played very well Saturday night, and continued to look like a team that was on the rise and continuing to gel. As Keller and I were discussing after the game, we scored just as many touchdowns as TB, we just got beat in a few key areas.

The Good:

Aside from two picks - which we've kind of come to expect with this team - Andrico Hines had a great night, throwing for over 300 yards and 7 TDs. Protection on him was adequate, and he had time to think things through and make precision throws. The two picks in question both came in the second half after the battle of attrition had started to take its toll on both teams. Also, those two plays, I feel, were more great defensive plays by TB than they were screw-ups by Hines.

With good QBing comes good receiving. Joystick was the man of the night for the Power with 126 yards and three clutch touchdowns. Superman put up almost a hundred yards himself, along with three touchdowns of his own - two in the air and one on the ground. Finally, there was Oderick Turner, continuing to carve out a place for himself on our team with 81 yards and a touchdown.

Defense was coming up very strong in this game, especially with Christian Wise's contributions. Fairly early in the game, QB Nick Hill was taken out after a defensive collision (though, he did lower his head into the hit all by himself) but not before throwing a pick to Wise. He was also there on pass coverage and a number of good hits throughout the game. LeFlore and DeGrate also made key contributions.

Finally, there was the fact that we played 4 solid quarters again this week, the importance of which cannot be understated.

The Bad:

Kicking, kicking, kicking. I just don't know what it is, but we cannot seem to get this kicking thing down for more than a week or two at a time. Missed PATs are a fact of life in the AFL, but they shouldn't be the norm. Also, our snap timing always seems to be off, which leads to stuffed PAT attempts - one of which was recovered by TB and run back for two.

Penalties - granted, TB had almost twice as many yards as we did on penalties, but ours came in key areas that lost us more than yards. Two separate times, picks were called back because of procedural penalties - one of which Wise had run all the way back to the house. Had either one of those stood, we would have at least tied the turnover battle, and in one case, been ahead another TD.

I'm slotting this in the bad, 'cause it just really sucked, but Steve Wasil of Tampa Bay came up big. The Storm had not won yet on the road this year, and that's due in large part to him. For some reason, the road just seems to get in his head and he falls apart. When Hill got helped off the field, I was glad to see Wasil come in. Unfortunately, he played like he does at home.

Last, there was a failure to capitalize on opportunities. In the second half, the defense came up strong and forced a big 4th down stop on Tampa Bay, but it was squandered a few plays later when Hines was picked off. It's things like that that win and lose games, especially a game where the score just goes back and forth like this one did. A big stop has to lead to a score, or else you've done nothing.

The Ugly:

The Ugly can really be summed up by the last minute of the game. TB had scored, on-side kicked it, recovered and ran it back almost to paydirt. Okay, this is bad, but it's not the end of the world when there's still a full minute left. If you'll excuse me for a moment, I'm going to Monday morning quarterback this. (Normal disclaimer - I'm not a coach, never will be a coach and don't know as much as the coach.)

There are two schools of thought here in Arena Football in this situation, the first of which is to trust your defense to hold the line on the one and either stop them completely or at least hold them to a FG. That one yard is often the hardest, and with certain teams - the Georgia Force does this well - this is the right call, and is what Coach Stingley (a defense man by trade, so it's not surprising) did.

The other school of thought is to just let them score, and then give yourself most of a minute and any remaining timeouts to burn as much clock (or save it if you need it) as possible before scoring and hopefully leave the opponent with nothing left. Even with as well as our defense has been playing recently, I still think this would have been the better call.

The Power just is not a goal-line stand kind of team. We don't have that kind of defense, and it's a pretty forgone conclusion that the other team is going to score eventually. Well...they did. But not until almost 30 seconds and both of our remaining timeouts were burned. The Power did all it could to score in those last 30 seconds - including one mad dash to spike the ball after Hines scrambled on a play and left the clock running - but it just didn't happen. They were rushed, they were flustered and they were staring defeat in the eye again. Three shots at the end zone - the last as time expired - failed to connect, and the Power lost, 65-61.

Elsewhere in the league

  • The Mustangs had a good shot at an upset, but as I suspected, they couldn't pull it off. The Sharks really had no problem defeating them, and Bernard Morris was looking perfect at QB. Almost 200 yards in the air (for 6 TDs), 26 on the ground (including a TD) and no picks made him the man of the night. More importantly, he didn't fumble - which some of you might remember was his problem here last year. He's going to be tough when we close our home season against the Sharks in a few weeks.
  • WHAT? The Predators beat Cleveland? Well, that's that Spoiler stuff I was talking about. the Preds came up big and really put a hurting on the Gladiator's playoff hopes. Preds 55, Glads 34.
  • All week, the late game between Utah and Arizona was being touted as an Old West showdown between gunslingers Davila and Grady. Strange, then, that the first half was a defensive exhibition that set the tone for the whole game. The Rattlers were pounding on Grady, whereas the Blaze was picking Davila and recovering on-side kicks. The unfortunate part for the Ratts was that their defensive plays cost Grady yards and downs, whereas it cost Utah possessions. It was a battle that Arizona beat themselves in. The team is good at on-side kicks, but it just wasn't working for them Friday - but they kept trying it. In the end, those lost plays and Davila's picks cost them the game, 62-49
  • Not surprisingly, the Barnstormers were able to decisively defeat the Command.
  • As expected, the Voodoo lost on the road to San Jose, 55-31. However, as I had also pointed out, the loss didn't really cost them anything more than breathing room. They still hold the top spot in their division with a couple of key tie-breakers, so they just need to hang in there and end strong.
  • Chicago needed the win, and they didn't get it. Garcia and his Talons are just too strong, and they were able to hand the Rush a close defeat, 61-54
  • Okay, I get it - my crazy picks don't pan out...and picks didn't pan out for Rowley, either. Dirty Dan only threw for 179 yards this week, but that's more than enough when your defense picks up 4 interceptions for you. With that, the Soul set a franchise record of 14 wins in a season, and they still have a game to go.


Playoff Picture
In the National Conference, it's all over but the crying. The playoff berths are all reserved, it's just a matter of which cabin each team is getting. The Talons have clinched their division with two games remaining. They have a head-to-head with the Rattlers that might decide the 1 seed, but that's about the only concern they still have. The Ratts, Cats and Blaze have all locked up spots, and just need to figure out who's going where.

Right now, round one would be the Cats at Talons, and Blaze at Ratts. I know I picked a Cats/Soul Arena Bowl a few months ago, but if these are the match-ups, I don't see it. I see the Talons coming out of the first round with the Rattlers - but as this weekend proved, the latter isn't a done deal. In the second round, if the Ratts play the Talons, it'll be almost a rematch of the Arena Bowl last year, and that makes it too close to call. If the Talons play the Blaze, I see see San Antonio advancing to the big show.

In the American conference, it's still a mess. Philly's still in the top spot and - barring a major upset - the favorite to go to the final. Below them is a three-way tie between NOLA, Jacksonville and Georgia, with a few other teams on the outside looking in. There's no real point in rehashing the "what-ifs' for the other teams and the "who-knows" of the teams that are currently in. There's still a few weeks left in the season and about 5 teams within a game of each other.

If the brackets today stand, then Jax will get stomped by Philly for the third time this year in the first round, while the Voodoo will probably beat the Georgia Force for the third time this year (they end the season against each other, and I will reassess then.) In the second round, the Voodoo will put up a good fight, but ultimately be eliminated by the Soul.

Whether it's a Talons/Soul Arena Bowl or a Ratts/Soul one, there's no way to call it from here. Philly is the favorite over everyone in the league, but both of those other teams can pull off strong wins. If I had to pick, I'd say the Soul over the Rattlers, but possibly losing to the Talons. However, neither team has matched up against Philly this year, so there's not much to go on. It'll come down to how they play through the first two rounds, and what kinds of injuries happen. We'll just have to wait and see.

Friday, July 06, 2012

A Powerful Storm Brews

I'm cautiously optimistic about our second-to-last home game. It's not a slam dunk - after all, we lost to the KC Command - but I think we have a good shot.

The Storm has been hot and cold this season, but they've gotten pretty banged up. Their reciever Amarri Jackson has now been put on IR, and that's a great thing for us. He's been out a few times this season for injuries, but even with a shorter season, he's still set records. Him not being there is great for us. There is also the fact that the Storm hasn't won a game on the road yet this year (and started dropping them at home.) Again, we lost to the winless Command, but it's still a factor in our favor that they're a weak road team.

Last week showed that the Power is capable of gelling as a team. We finally got some protection on our QB, and that allowed him to keep the picks to a minimum. The question is going to be who's behind center. I'm not sure who I'd prefer - and we know it doesn't matter who they say they're starting - but Hines looked good last week. It might have been a fluke, but it's tough to say. Randall has the field time and knows his players... but he's a known quantity. Known both to opposing teams, and to us as a guy who gets happy feet.

Therefore, the most important part will be protecting whoever is there, and holding on to balls when they are passed. Again, we did well with that last week. So, not to belabor the point, but basically we need to do what we did last week, and we should be able to give the home fans a win for once.

The most important part this week is the opposing coach. Long ago, I wrote one of our most popular posts, the famous Tomlin or Epps quiz. Now, I could do something similar with Dave Ewart and Chris Farley, but that's just a cheap shot.

Seriously, I just want to watch him contest a call.


Elsewhere in the league

  • For the game of the week, the Mustangs have a good chance to play spoiler against the Sharks on national television. The Mustangs aren't technically eliminated, but the stars would have to align to Shakespearean levels for them to make the post season. The Sharks, however, are in the position of being 4th in the conference, and can only pull ahead with better records than the two non-Philly teams ahead of them (stupid tie-breakers.) It's going to be close, but I take the Sharks.
  • Cleveland is getting a bit of a gift this week. In order to make the playoffs, they still need to pretty much win out, and Friday they match up against the Preds. Orlando has blown a few chances to spoil recently, so I don't see them upsetting the Cleveland applecart.
  • The late game is gonna be a good one. #1 in the West faces off against #2 on the road. The Rattlers already beat Utah at home this season, and they most likely can do it on the road, but the Blaze needs this win. Take the Ratts, cautiously.
  • First game on Saturday should be a win for Iowa over the Command.
  • It's a good thing for New Orleans that Geogia has a bye week this week. They have to play San Jose on the road, and I just don't see them winning. A loss this week would tie their record with Georgia, and NOLA has the tie-breaker right now, which would leave them in first. This will remain true, even if the Sharks win, as they have the head-to-head there as well.
  • Chicago really needs the win this week to keep their playoff hopes alive, and they're strong at home. However, I think that the Talons will win for the Chicago sweep.
  • Finally, Sunday at 6:05 is the explosive match. The Shock handed Philly their first road loss earlier this season, and now it's time for the rematch. However, they got blown out last week. Philly is strong, but again, they're in WTF time of the season, and the Shock had their number last time. Another big problem developing is that Philly offensive weapon Tiger Jones has been signed by and invited to camp with the Eagles. The Soul have got one of the most packed rosters in the league, but Jones is one of their biggest play-makers. The development is great for him, but bad for the Soul. Crazy pick again: Shock win.

Monday, July 02, 2012

Buccos Update

OK.  After 19 seasons of heartbreak, I still haven't learned to temper my optimism.  I realize the Pirates are only a ten game losing streak from finding their way back to irrelevance.  But, it's July.  The Buccos are still relevant.  Not only are they relevant, they're thriving.  They just scored 11 runs.  Sure, it was against the Astros, but they also dropped 14 runs on the Cardinals and 11 runs on the Phillies in the last week.  It's only July, but they're seven games over .500 and only a half game out of first place.

Now, I also had issues tempering my optimism last July.  We all know what happened in July last season, but people forget that they were actually six games over .500 on July 21st.  The fact that they were still relevant so close to Steeler training camp was big news, but they ultimately fell apart after that point, losing 17 of their next 20 and ending up with 90 losses.

This season, they have many of the same issues.  They don't walk enough.  They're 27th in runs scored, 26th in batting average, 30th in on-base percentage, and 21st in slugging.  They're not hitting well on the season, but they're pitching extremely well.  Same as last season.  That would lead one to believe that they're overachieving just like they did last season and they'll soon come down to Earth.

I don't know who this "one" person is, but they're wrong, whoever they are.  It's true that, for the season, their offensive statistics are horrible.  But, they averaged more runs per game in June than any other team in the NL.  They scored 53 runs in their last six games, which is more runs than they scored in the entire month of April.  Clint Barmes is now hitting over .200, Drew Sutton appears to at least be serviceable, and Casey McGehee has proven to be valuable enough. Pedro Alvarez has a knack for hitting home runs, Garrett Jones knows that he'll be re-assigned if he plays too poorly, and Andrew McCutchen is having one of the greatest offensive seasons of any Pirate ever (putting him in Honus-Bonds-Waner-Clemente-Stargell-Parker territory).

It's unrealistic to think that they can keep up their June pace for the balance of the season, but it's also unrealistic to think that they'll regress to their April/early May performance.  If Walker, Alvarez, Jones, and Barmes can get their numbers back to their historical averages, then they should have enough offense to carry the team.  At some point, since McCutchen doesn't have any protection -- he's the only guy on the team that is a real threat -- one would assume that pitchers would just pitch around him or intentionally walk him to get to the sucky parts of the line-up.  But, one would be wrong yet again, since McCutchen has such quick wrists and generates so much bat speed with a compact swing that he doesn't necessarily need a pitch to hit to get a hit.  It's true that he has a .407 OBP, but I think that also means that he's picking his spots.  If the bats behind him keep improving, then he's less likely to draw a free pass even when first base isn't open.

Ultimately, they need another bat.  Well, they could probably use two or three bats, but the basic issue is that, while their farm system isn't barren, they don't have a healthy stockade of guys with potential that they can move for guys that can play right now.  Also, there aren't a lot of bats on the market and Kevin Youkilis isn't walking through that door.

Since there aren't a lot of available hitters and since the guys currently on the roster could suffice, the other option would be to trade for a big name pitcher.  That would be a bold move, but would also put the team in a fantastic position, especially if the hitters currently on the roster continue to be productive.  Bringing in a guy like Cole Hamels or Zach Greinke would mean three solid starters in the rotation when you consider James McDonald and AJ Burnett.  That would make Bedard a very respectable fourth starter and mean that they wouldn't need to hinge too much on Correia or Karstens, as well as being able to keep Brad Lincoln has their secret weapon/long reliever/spot starter.  Additionally, in a three game playoff series, they'd have an advantage in that...

OK, I am getting ahead of myself again.  They've been lucky with regard to injuries (Pedro missed some time and Charlie Morton had Tommy John surgery, but that's about it), so that will need to continue.  They don't have another murderous stretch after the break like they did last season.  Actually, they have 13 games left against Houston, ten games against the Cubs, three games against the Rockies, six games against the Padres, three games against the Marlins, and 12 games against the Brewers, six of which are at home.  That means 47 of their next 83 games are against sub-.500 teams.  They need to win the winnable games and take as many games against quality teams and division rivals as possible.

The fact remains that 86-88 wins (maximum of 90) will win the NL Central.  If they can split with the Cardinals (six games remaining) and win more than they lose against the Reds (nine games remaining), then they have an excellent shot at finishing 82-80, if not possibly winning the division.

Now, I wouldn't give them a chance in the playoffs, but it's interesting to even discuss that possibility.

Sunday, July 01, 2012

Consider them 'Barns stormed

Wow. I stared at a blank screen for a while here trying to game-plan actually writing a post about the Power winning. Not only winning, but winning with authority over a team with more than one win under their belt. Sure, we're in garbage time of a losing season, but seeing a win was fantastic, and it was a very entertaining game to watch.

Coach Ho of Iowa is known for really changing things up and keeping opposing teams on their toes. Well, it looks like Coach Stingley learned a few things from him, because he caught everyone off guard by putting Hines in at QB. When I say everyone, I mean that Hines was on screen for a full minute before the announcers realized they were talking about the wrong guy.

He had us nervous for his first few drives, despite scoring, because he was all over the place. He looked about like a QB who hadn't played in a long time against a team that picked him 5 times before. But, eventually, he got into a rhythm and started getting things done. About his only real black mark (once he got in the groove) was the single pick of the game thrown (both sides.) It was a really bad read, and he threw it straight to Jason Simpson a few yards out and he ran it in for six.

It has to be said that Simpson is really, really good. If someone's going to get a pick, or a runback or any combination thereof, it's him. What is surprising is that this pick six didn't deep six the Power. I've commented before, generally the Power commit that one turnover that takes all the wind from their sails, but this time, it didn't happen. It seemed to rally the team and focus them on the task at hand.

Stand-out performances were had by Joystick, Superman and Oderick Turner. Hines was able to get back in the swing of things targeting Washington and Turner in the end zone for 4 TDs, which is impressive given the vast difference in height with those two receivers. Overall, he might have thrown some real wildcat passes in the red zone that probably shouldn't have been done, but when it counted, he was able to rely on those two to have sure hands. This is especially nice since they've both had some trouble with dropped balls this season.

The Iowa defense might have been able to keep Berry out of the end zone all night (with the exception short-yard rush), but he was still explosive on the field. Yardage-wise, he was the top Power receiver, and only 4 yards shy on top receiver of the night. He averaged 23 yards a return, with a top one of 50. Amongst all of these things, he was entertaining and athletic on clutch plays that he made seem easy. The one scary part of the evening came in the second half when he took an awkward tackle that looked to screw his leg up, leaving him to be assisted from the field. A few plays later, he was back in and we could breathe again.

For me, the best part of this game was to see another team suffer from something that's been heaped on us all season - namely, a quarterback who is constantly under pressure. Although the Power did not pick JJ Raterink at all during this game, they sure did get in his face. He spent a lot of time on the ground and got hit hard. Over the course of 60 minutes, you could see that it was taking its toll. He only completed 19 of 32, and the Power stopped him on two 4th down situations.

Finally, where the Power was weak in some areas, they came up big on others. For example, Boyer was having a lousy night kicking. His kickoffs seemed lackluster, and his PAT ability was a no-show. Everyone has a bad night, but with Power kickers this season, we might see a new face next week. But, what he lost us on PATs, the defense made up for on safeties. Raterink got steamrolled in the end zone for one, and was forced into a poorly timed shuffle-pass that Neil Purvis was able to strip for the other.

Again, this game meant nothing in the grand scheme of things, but the Power came up big. They've been saying right along that they are still out for wins every week, and this week they proved it. Now that the CBA is supposedly going to allow for multi-year contracts, it's time for the Power to start thinking about a core team that they want to lock up long term. If this is the team we have every week, and this is how they can play, there are a number of people that proved the Power can be a team to be reckoned with in the future.

Elsewhere in the league

Well, my picks did not go as disastrously as I'd thought they would. I still missed a few, but did better than the 50% I was thinking. Also - screw you, Preds! I had wild-man faith in you, and you let me down!

  • Philly might not know how to lay down, but the Storm still made them work for it. There was no blowout in Tampa Bay this week as the game came down to the final minute. No quarter was offered or given in this 83-79 slugfest. Tampa's loss came as the result of two critical non-catches. At around the one-minute mark, TB was holding Raudabaugh in the red zone, and on 3rd down, a defender leaped for a pass, got hands on it and dropped it, allowing Dirty Dan to connect with Captain Morgan on 4th for the TD. On TB's final drive, with one second left, Nick Hill passed to Joe Hills, who caught it, only to be freight-trained by two defenders and coughing it up before he hit the ground. Philly wins.
  • Oh God...There's not a lot to be said about the Game of the Week, except "Damn..." A Cleveland player remarked before the game that the Gladiators are already in the playoff mode - one loss and their season is over. Milwaukee was in the same situation, as they also needed to win out to make the post season. They didn't. Cleveland simply leveled them in this run-away ass-whoopin'. Final score, 69-32 Cleveland, and Milwaukee gets to join Pittsburgh on the division "It's Over" bench.
  • Arizona knew they needed a win and a San Jose loss to secure the division, and they sure did their part, proving me wrong in the process. I figure that even if they beat Spokane, it'd be close. However, a lot of people on the Internet like to talk about Rowley choking when it comes down to it, and he sure did Friday, getting picked a staggering 5 times. Final score in this blow-out was 61-35
  • KC did far better in this matchup than I'd thought they would. A few times, I looked down and the score was way closer than it should have been. Wish I could have seen it, but the Arena streams were not being nice and I could get it in. In the end, Garcia and the Talons won by ten points to put this one to bed, 58-48.
  • Speaking of bad feeds, this one really infuriated me, but probably kept my heart in better shape. On while the Power was playing, I had this one up on my laptop to switch over to during commercials. I swear, every time I looked over, there was another turnover. The feed cut before the end of the game, but the Voodoo was able to get the win and take back first place in the division, 65-55.
  • The Cats also wanted to prove me wrong this week, as well as keep AZ from securing the division. Given how the Rush perform in their home arena, I thought they were going to have this one, but the Sabercats just wanted it a lot more. The final from Allstate Arena was 75-61.
  • I really thought that the Preds could win against the Force and salvage some pride for their season. They obviously thought so too, as the game came down to the wire. At 56-53, Orlando had the chance to tie it up and go to OT with a long field goal, but it just was not meant to be. Georgia wins and slips only to second place in their division.