Thursday, February 19, 2009

Steelers Free Agents

Okay, so look at this: http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/fa?oldTeamId=23. Take the time to scroll down and look at what the grades mean.

Take a moment to realize that Max Starks, whom the Steelers just franchised and gave $8.5 million, has a grade of 69, which equates to "Average Starter." Now move past that. If you can.

Actually, give me a minute...

Okay.

Now, take away the Restricted Free Agents (RFA) because they're basically screwed. They have pretty much no choice but to stick with the Steelers in 2009 if we offer them a deal.

That leaves Charlie Batch, Byron Leftwich, Keyaron Fox, Andre Frasier, Orpheus Roye, Bryant McFadden, Nate Washington, and Jamel White.

If you find yourself saying, "Wait, who the hell is Keyaron Fox? Jamel White? Was he on the Cosby Show? Who's Andre Frasier?" you're not alone. So, take those guys out. The Steelers will sign them easily if they want to because pretty much no one knows who they are.

Take out Byron Leftwich. He earned a chance to sign with a team that doesn't have a two-time Super Bowl winning quarterback that also had more victories in his first five seasons than any quarterback in history. Roethlisberger isn't going anywhere and Leftwich knows it. So he's going elsewhere.

Charlie Batch? He's a free agent? Really? He and his fragile collar bone are going to leave Homestead and go somewhere where he's not considered a living god? You're sure? I'm not. He stays or retires.

At this point, you're left with Orpheus Roye, Bryant McFadden, and Nate Washington. Anyone that says that the Steelers have 12 pending free agents is lying to you. Don't you believe them.

Orpheus Roye:

Has an awesome name, but is 36. At three days older than dirt, he's still the youngest defensive lineman the Steelers have. (I kid because I care, but, seriously, our defensive line is loooooong in the tooth.) He's in a Kimo von Olhoffen situation. If he signs with us, I'm happy. If some dumbass team gives him a three year contract for $10 million, I'm happy for him. It's possible that he signs for the veteran minimum to play for a team that has a good shot at repeating, but the Steelers aren't going to overpay for him.

They reserve that behavior for Max Starks. Moving on.

Nate Washington:

He'd be freakin' amazing if he could only catch the ball. Unfortunately, we're all professionals here. If a player can't catch the ball at this point, it ain't gonna happen. Like Dwight Stone, he's a fast, versatile dude that can't catch.

If we can get him for four years and $13 million or so (I'm not being extravagant, the salary cap is out of control and that's pretty much fair market value), then keep him. But, I'm not prepared to offer Randle-El money for him (six years, $27 million).

With Limas Sweed on the roster -- basically the same guy, only taller, younger, and cheaper -- it's not worth breaking the bank to keep him. Especially since I think we draft a receiver in the first three rounds this year.

Bryant McFadden:

He has the highest grade of any of our free agents at 73 (Good Starter). I've been a McFadden fan since we drafted him and I hate Florida State, so that should tell you something.

Deshea Townsend can't play forever, William Gay will never be more than a nickle back, and it's only a matter of time until Ike Taylor starts to bitch about the fact that he's severely underpaid (he really is). We need to re-sign McFadden.

Here's the issue. The Colts bent us over and played like all the bad parts of season two of Oz with our anus. They signed Kelvin Hayden -- a man that had a 73 grade on the main list for cornerbacks to a five year contract worth $43 million.

After we sign James Harrison to a long term deal, McFadden should be our first priority. However, if the Colts have priced him out of the market, then we're in a bad, bad spot.

Either we commit that kind of money to McFadden and Taylor gets pissed (understandably, since he was a Pro Bowl alternate in 2008) or we decide he isn't worth it and he gets Hayden money somewhere else.

I don't see how we can win this, so I am going to trust the nice folks in the Steelers front office.

(Takes a moment and realizes they're the same morons that franchise tagged Max Starks.)

CRAP!

Max Starks

Oh. Jesus. Christ!

I was joking with my brother on Tuesday that, if the San Diego Chargers decided to place the franchise tag on Darren Sproles, it would be the second dumbest tagging in the past 12 months. Of course, the first dumbest would be when the Steelers put the transition tag on Max Starks, paying him $7 million to sit on the bench.

Now that they have placed the franchise tag on Starks, Sproles goes down to number three (the Chargers gave Sproles the franchise designation yesterday).

I have three words for Kevin Colbert and company in the wake of their colossally retarded decision: Whiskey Tango Foxtrot.

You could argue that the Steelers front office knew that Marvel Smith was going to get hurt and not be able to finish the season, thus they would need to have Starks, who can also play left tackle. Smith gets hurt a lot, he has only played 16 games in a season once, and it's always good to have an insurance policy. Sure. You could argue that.

The fact remains, though, that they were prepared to commit $7 million to Starks for the 2008 season to back up Willie Colon and as insurance just in case Marvel got hurt. Okay, he did get hurt. But, this article claims that Starks "helped the Steelers win their sixth Super Bowl." It's true that he was their starting left tackle. It's true that they won their sixth Super Bowl (the Steelers won Super Bowl XLIII, by the way). Seriously, though, Starks helped the Steelers win Super Bowl XLIII in the same way that Bubby Brister helped the Broncos win XXXIII: He was a back-up that stepped in when the starter got hurt.

Let's forget for a moment that the Steelers just handed a man that couldn't beat out Willie Colon almost $8.5 million. And let's think about the fact that they have three other offensive linemen -- including one Marvel Smith -- that are up for a new deal.

How do they negotiate with Smith, a six year starter, when they gave a back-up that much money? How do they negotiate with Colon? What about Chris Keomeautu?

Or, more to the point, how do they negotiate with James Harrison, a man who helped the Steelers win their sixth Super Bowl? And, ya know, he actually helped. Much in the way that Rod Smith helped the Broncos win Super Bowl XXXIII... he made a huge play that resulted in a touchdown.

I mean, Harrison's going to look at any offer that the Steelers make him and say, "Wait. You gave that idiot Max Starks eight and a half million dollars and you come at me with this?"

So, this reminds me that the Steelers have some pending free agents...

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Greatest Franchise in the Super Bowl Era

For the most part, people I've talked to and stuff I've read online has pretty much declared, hands down, without much debate, that the Steelers are the greatest NFL franchise of the Super Bowl era.

They usually bring up the six Super Bowl championships (most by anyone ever), the fact that the Rooneys are the greatest owners of all time, and that Steeler Nation exists.

Sure, the 49ers and Cowboys have five Lombardis each, but San Francisco has sucked for most of this decade, the Yorks have their heads up their asses, and most fans in the Bay Area are too obsessed with wine tasting and pride marching to care about football. Dallas has a proud tradition, but Jerry Jones is a loose cannon and there have been as many criminals, potheads, and crack addicts in the history of the Dallas Cowboys as Hall of Famers.

But, let he who is without sin...

Prior to the Super Bowl era (when Dan Rooney took over), Art Rooney, Sr (God rest his soul) was a terrible owner that didn't devote any money to things like scouting or coaching or player development.

During the Super Bowl era a healthy percentage of our offensive and defensive lines were juiced up throughout the 70s and 80s. Ernie Holmes was a criminal. Several of the modern pass interference, illegal contact, and holding rules for the defense could be called "Mel Blount Rules." We strongarmed Mike Merriweather, then traded him after the 1987 strike happened, which obviously didn't teach the Steelers any lessons. Bam Morris was no saint. Rumors have swirled about Cowher's extracurricular activities (not with Kordell in Schenley, but with the ladies). And, of course, there's the fact that some of the primary stakeholders in the franchise were heavily involved in gambling for years.

I mention the negatives because everyone knows about the positives: 14 conference championship games, seven Super Bowl appearances, six titles, only three coaches since 1969, the Rooney Rule, Steeler Nation, the Terrible Towel, all the Hall of Famers, TV analysts, and iconic players that have come out of the team, best record in the NFL since the 1970 merger, and the fact that we're a plucky franchise in a small market that just keeps on winning.

Since everyone has skeletons in their closet from a subjective perspective, I figured that I'd solve this with numbers. I included every team that has been to five or more Super Bowls and passed out points according to their successes since 1970.

1 point for every season where they finished over .500 (for the most part, if you have a winning record, you have an excellent chance of making the playoffs... as we've discussed, once you make the playoffs, anything can happen).

1 point for every playoff victory (the more postseason games you win, the better your chances of getting to and winning the Super Bowl).

2 points for making the Conference Championship game (if nothing else, you're one of the best teams in your conference and that should count for something. Plus which, you need to win at least one postseason game to get to that point, so that is a measure of postseason success).

3 points for winning the Conference Championship game (getting to the Super Bowl should count for almost as much as winning it, since, as history has shown, it's not the easiest thing in the world to even get there).

4 points for winning the Super Bowl.

I was surprised by the fact that eight teams have made it to five or more Super Bowls (the cutoff was at five because the 49ers made it to five, they just happened to win all five.)

Cowboys (8)
Steelers (7)
Broncos (6)
Patriots (6)
49ers (5)
Redskins (5)
Dolphins (5)
Raiders (5)

A few things that I thought were interesting:
  1. The Steelers and Cowboys have appeared in 14 Conference Championship games each. That's out of 78 possible (remember, we're going from 1970 and two teams from each conference are in the championship game). Oakland had ten appearances and San Francisco had 11. That means that there was a 32% chance that the NFC Championship game featured either the 49ers or Cowboys since 1970 and a 30.8% chance that the AFC Championship featured either the Raiders or Steelers. Not surprisingly, those four teams finished in the top four in the Ultimate Standings.
  2. The Dolphins have had only four losing seasons since 1970. Sure, they had five 8-8 seasons, but when you consider that two of those losing seasons were back-to-back (in 2006 and 2007) and one of them was a 1-15 season, it's that much more impressive.
  3. Miami also had the most seasons over .500 with 30, but the Steelers were second with 29.
  4. The 49ers had the most losing seasons with 16. Interestingly enough, they also had zero seasons in which they finished 8-8 since 1970. Everyone else had at least two and the Broncos had six.
  5. New England has the best record in Conference Championship games at 6-1, with their only loss coming against the Colts following the 2006 season.
  6. The Raiders were the only team to put a team in the Super Bowl in four decades: 60s, 70s, 80s, 00s.
At any rate, here's what I found, worst to first...

Denver Broncos, eighth place, 71 points:

Winning Seasons: 24
Playoff Record: 17-15
Conference Championship record: 6-2
Super Bowl Record: 2-4

Washington Redskins, seventh place, 75 points:

Winning Seasons: 23
Playoff Record: 23-17
Conference Championship record: 5-1
Super Bowl Record: 3-2

Miami Dolphins, tied for sixth place, 77 points:

Winning Seasons: 30
Playoff Record: 20-20
Conference Championship record: 5-2
Super Bowl Record: 2-3

New England Patriots, tied for sixth place, 77 points:

Winning Seasons: 24
Playoff Record: 21-13
Conference Championship record: 6-1
Super Bowl Record: 3-3

Oakland Raiders, fourth place, 84 points:

Winning Seasons: 22
Playoff Record: 25-18
Conference Championship record: 5-5
Super Bowl record: 3-2

San Francisco 49ers, third place, 96 points:

Winning Seasons: 23
Playoff Record: 26-18
Conference Championship record: 5-6
Super Bowl record: 5-0

Dallas Cowboys, second place, 115 points:

Winning Seasons: 27
Playoff Record: 32-24
Conference Championship record: 8-6
Super Bowl record: 5-3

Pittsburgh Steelers, first place, 119 points:

Winning Seasons: 29
Playoff Record: 31-19
Conference Championship record: 7-7
Super Bowl record: 6-1

All in all, the fact that the Cowboys are 1-2 against the Steelers in the Super Bowl and the fact that Dallas hasn't won a playoff game since 1996 are the two things that swung things in Pittsburgh's favor.

The 49ers were really good from about Super Bowl 16 to about Super Bowl 29, but not so much before that or after that. That's why they won five Super Bowls but finished behind the Cowboys and Steelers by a healthy margin.

You could make a serious case for Dallas being the team of the 70s even though they only won two Super Bowls and the Steelers won four. They appeared in more Super Bowls (five to four) and more conference championship games (seven to six).

I mean, we won, they lost, we were the team of the 70s. I'm just saying if they had won one of those games, they'd be the team of the 70s, not us. Dallas was that good.

The Steelers win out, though, because they went 2-1 against the Cowboys in Super Bowls and were more consistent in the regular season and the postseason. As a matter of fact, if you take a look at their records in the 80s, they're not as bad as everyone remembers them being. And they weren't as good in the 90s as everyone remembers, either.

So, it's officially official. The Pittsburgh Steelers are the best NFL franchise of the Super Bowl era.

Thursday, February 05, 2009

Greatest Franchise Ever

I've seen articles recently claiming everything from the Steelers being the best franchise in the NFL today, the best franchise of the Super Bowl era, the best franchise in NFL history, and even the best franchise in all of sports.

Well, everyone knows that I love the Steelers, but I can't say that they're the greatest sports franchise in the history of sports.

The Steelers have won six out of 43 Super Bowls, so they've won 14% of the time. The Celtics have won 17 of 61 titles, which is 27.6% of the time. The Yankees have won 26 of 104 titles, which is 25% of the time.

So, the Celtics are the best, right? Well, the Celtics pretty much won all their titles in the 50s, 60s, and 80s and took the 70s, 90s, and most the 00s off. Also, they've appeared in 20 NBA Finals, whereas the Yankees have appeared in 39 World Series. Thirty-nine out of 104 is 37.5% of the time. That means that, if someone had a gun to your head and asked you who represented the AL in the 1943 World Series, you'd be foolish to answer anything other than the Yankees unless you knew the answer for sure (I picked a year at random and it just so happens the Yankees and Cardinals played that year).

I'm actually going to throw hockey out of the equation. The early years are so sketchy, there were so few teams for so long, and it's the fourth most popular sport in the US by a pretty wide margin. If I included hockey (and the Canadiennes, most likely), then I should probably include Manchester United. And that's actually an insult to Man U, since they're far more valuable in terms of dollars and domestic and international appeal than any hockey team, new arena or no new arena.

So, the Yankees are the best franchise in all the history of all of sports. They've been at least relevant in every decade and have more championship appearances and more championships than everyone, either as a percentage or a number, over the longest period of time.

And, anyone who thinks that baseball championships don't mean anything because there's more parity in football, consider this: There have been eight different World Series champions since 2000. The Red Sox are the only repeats. There have been six different Super Bowl champions since 2000, with the Steelers and Patriots both being repeats.

Speaking of the Patriots, they're probably still the best franchise in the league right now, since Spygate appears to have gone away (and the Rooney's involvement in gambling was really downplayed, as was the sale of the shares to Dan and Art II), they've won three of the past eight Super Bowls and appeared in four of them, and have won more games than any other team this decade.

If Brady's healthy, they'll be a threat again and they know they can at least count on Matt Cassel to win some games.

Okay, so if the Steelers aren't the greatest current NFL franchise or the greatest franchise across all sports, then surely they're the greatest franchise in the history of the NFL, right?

Well, the Packers have nine titles and have been around just as long as the Steelers. The Bears hold the record for most total wins and most regular season wins and the Cowboys (even though they haven't won a postseason game in 12 years) hold the record for most playoff wins.

Now, everyone knows that the Steelers sucked big, hairy balls from 1933-1969, but not everyone knows how bad they were. They are 394-253-2 since the 1970 merger, which is best in the league, but they are 556-518-21 since 1933, which is a .511 winning percentage. Considering they've been playing .609 ball the past 39 seasons, that means they were really goddamn pathetic those first 38 seasons. Like 162-256-19 pathetic, which is a .388 winning percentage. They won four games in ten for almost four decades.

It's also true that the Packers haven't done much in the Super Bowl era -- especially considering that they won the first two Super Bowls before they were called Super Bowls. But, they have been relevant, they were always a threat to make the playoffs during the Brett Favre era, and tried their best to establish a mini-dynasty after the San Francisco and Dalls dynasties petered out.

Nine titles, all that relevancy, all that mystique, same stadium all these years, and all those wins makes them the greatest franchise in the history of the NFL. And their fans are fairly decent, too. And they travel well: The Packers fan club of Tampa is the largest sports organization in Florida.

But, given the fact that the Packers won all their titles before they were called Super Bowls... the Steelers have gotta be the best team of the Super Bowl era, right?

Super Bowl Reflections

Well, I got pretty hammered, then wandered around South Side after the game and got myself sick. I might have been able to make an earlier recovery, but I assumed that I had a hangover until about six o'clock on Monday evening. At that point I said, "Wait a second. I've never had a hangover that included a fever, coughing, and aches and pains... I think I'm sick!" And I was awfully sick.

I'm recovered now (I think), already got the wife sick, and I'm pretty much caught up on everything I missed while I was buried under three layers of covers and still shivering.

I know everyone was really really worried, so I thought I'd explain.

I've obviously talked to a lot of people about the game since it happened and there have been some differing opinions...

My father in-law thought we should have blown the Cardinals out and would have if Roethlisberger had hit those two deep passes in the first half (and we definitely would have crushed them had we hit those passes and converted in goal-to-go situations). He thought we played 3.5 great quarters, was happy with Roethlisberger and Holmes, and thinks that, ultimately, the best team won.

My Dad doesn't understand why we don't run the no huddle offense all time. He doesn't like the fact that the offense struggles the whole game, then all of the sudden turns it on, zips down the field, and scores. Why can't they do that the whole game? Well, aside shrugging your shoulders and saying, "Because that's the way they won all season?" there really isn't a good answer to that question. And, really, that's kind of like asking why the entire plane isn't made of the black box.

The Bills ran the no huddle as their base offense in the 90s and the Colts kinda run it now, but they run a "quick huddle" offense. They usually snap the ball with only five or so seconds left on the clock and it's a much more controlled pace. The defense has a chance to rest, but not substitute and the quarterback calls a lot more running plays that in the typical two-minute/no-huddle situation. But, like the black box, it's not possible to build an entire game around making the defense tired and hoping they screw up... because it's just as possible that your guys will get tired or screw up. Or, rather, it takes too much effort and too much materials to make a no-huddle offense indestructible.

My brother wondered how we let Kurt Warner pass for 375 yards, how we let Fitzgerald beat us when he was the one guy we had to stop, why we couldn't gain four freakin' inches when we needed to score, how could we let them back into the game?

He was excited -- the common theme among all Steelers fans that I've spoken with is that they all agree that it is awesome that we won the Super Bowl -- it's just that I think that everyone was expecting it to be easier after that first half.

I was worried after the first half, but I was also in Cowher mode. I was thinking about the fact that we're 1,150-1-1 since 1873 with an 11 point lead, or whatever the stat is. I think that Tomlin eased off the gas pedal. I think the fact that he knew he couldn't run the ball came back to bite him, and I think that Cowher wouldn't have let the game be that close.

However, once the Cardinals scored, I knew that we were going to win. And I wouldn't have been as sure as I was if Cowher was still coaching. Tomlin gives this team uncanny mental and emotional resolve. Mental fortitude. Sure, they're tough physically, they're trying to hit you, but they're also disciplined, calm, focused, and have their eyes and mind set right where they need to be. Cowher teams had a tendency to be too emotional. A critical turnover or a big play (like, say, the second Fitzgerald TD) would crush this team. Sometimes they had the resolve to come back, but they usually fell just short.

Some of it has to do with Roethlisberger's development, but I think a lot of it has to do with Tomlin and the confidence and focus he instills in his guys. I've said before that I love Mike Tomlin and I think he's a great coach, but I'll say this now... I don't think we win that game if we're down 23-20 with 2:37 left and Cowher is on the sidelines. I think the guys would have been too rattled, Cowher would have been too emotional, and someone would have panicked.

Getting back to the complaint department, everyone else on the Internet has talked about how the Steelers almost pissed the game away, they maybe got some favorable calls, and they got outgained in the Super Bowl again... and won again. The good news is that everyone seems to have gotten off Roethlisberger's ass for how badly he did in Super Bowl XL (the Steelers won that one, too, by the way) and everyone loves Tomlin almost as much as I do.

Here's what I think...
  1. We choked in the fourth quarter and let up on defense too much.
  2. We pissed away four touchdowns (the aforementioned goal-to-go situations and the dropped deep passes).
  3. We leaned too much on our defense.
  4. We couldn't run the ball.
  5. We didn't have a goaline offense.
  6. We kinda escaped with a win on this one.
But...
  1. Shit, we still won.
  2. I wasn't overly surprised because I knew how good the Cardinals were coming in.
  3. Special teams wasn't our downfall.
  4. We knew that 2-4 were issues coming into this game. If Dennis Green was still the coach in Arizona, he would've said, "They were who we thought they were." Everything that was broken in this game had been broken all season. We covered it up for this final game, overcame it, and now we know what we need to work on in the offseason.
  5. WE STILL WON.
Hey, I was the one that said that the NFL playoffs were a crapshoot way before anyone else said it (I said it before the Steelers had their run in 2005). It's like March Madness. Any time you have a single elimination tournament, anything can happen. Well, everyone else has compared it to March Madness. I compared it to Flavor of Love.

In any reality TV series, there's that one contestant that threw up in the bachelor's flowers the first night and was barely conscious for the first elimination ceremony. The next day, she's hungover and isn't at the top of her game and almost goes home. Then, she kind of skates by for a while until you look up and realize that she's in the top six and now anyone can win.

When someone has to be eliminated each time, all it takes is one bad day. You just have to have a day that's not the worst day.

Now, I think we played better than "not the worst" in the Super Bowl, but we also were not as strong as the guy from Survivor who killed a shark with a machete.

Ultimately, style points don't make much of a difference. All that's going to matter according to history is that we won. We couldn't throw the ball to save our lives in Super Bowl IX and needed some favorable calls and another crappy game from Fran Tarkenton to win 16-6. In Super Bowl X, we almost lost on three consecutive Hail Marys, we squandered several great opportunities on defense, and Roy Gerella and (insert punter's name here) were so terrible that Chuck Noll gambled on fourth down a number of times he didn't need to and lost... including on fourth and 12 from his own 35 with a four point lead towards the end of the fourth quarter. In XIII, we needed some lucky turnovers and for Jackie Smith to drop a wide open touchdown in the third quarter. In XIV, we were losing to Vince Friggin' Ferragamo for a good portion of the game before we eventually pulled away. And I'm sure you don't want me to bring up XL again. Too soon.

Style points aren't what got us six Lombardi Trophies. Style points aren't what make us successful.

And so -- not calling anyone out, just making a statement -- that needs to be considered. And we also need to consider, as Steeler fans, that the Pittsburgh Steelers have more Super Bowl wins than 21 teams combined (Arizona, Atlanta, Baltimore, Buffalo, Carolina, Chicago, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Jacksonville, Jersey/B, Kansas City, Minnesota, New Orleans, Philadelphia, San Diego, Seattle, St. Louis, Tampa and Tennessee).

At this point, to split hairs about how much we won by or how we won or how stylish it was seems kind of insensitive, when you consider the fan bases of those 21 teams.

Enjoy it. Savor it. In a couple weeks, you'll be thinking about free agents. In a couple months, you'll be thinking about draft picks. Then mini-camps and OTAs. Then training camp.

For right now, just enjoy that the Steelers won Super Bowl XLIII and leave the analysis to someone else.