Steelers-Saints Preview

Here's the thing...

I know the Saints are a good team. I am aware of the fact that they have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. I know that they won the Super Bowl last year. I know that they are well-coached and have a ton of veteran leadership.

I also know that they lost last week. To Cleveland. To Cleveland. At home. I know that they're currently 4-3, but the only good team they've played thus far is Atlanta and they lost to Atlanta. Sure, they beat the 4-2 Buccaneers, but so did the Steelers. The Steelers also beat Atlanta.

Their other three wins are against Minnesota (bad), San Francisco (really bad), and Carolina (super bad), and those were all close games against teams that range from bad to super bad. They also lost to Steelers West (also bad) by ten points. I believe that I mentioned that they lost to Cleveland at home by 13.

I know that the Steelers are banged up on defense, but I will take a banged up Steeler defense over a completely healthy Cleveland defense every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

I believe that the Saints are struggling for two reasons:

1. They really, really miss their running game with Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush being hurt.
2. They kinda got lucky on defense last year.

For number one, the New Orleans offense has a lot more exotic looks and formations than the Steelers offense, but it's basically the same idea: Establish the run and get chunks of yards off of play action. The issue there -- as Steeler fans discovered last season -- is that defenses don't care about play action and you don't get those chunks of yards if you can't run the ball. You may be able to force some chunks of yards to happen through persistence, but you'll also have a lot of turnovers and incompletions mixed in with the success. That's where the Saints are right now.

The Steelers were able to overcome that in 2008 with an outstanding defense and were able to keep the damage to a minimum with a defense that played hard for the first 50 minutes or so in 2009. The issue with the Saints this season is that their defense isn't as good in 2010 -- or as lucky -- as they were in 2009.

The New Orleans defense recorded a ton of turnovers in 2009 and either scored on defense or set their offense up to score. The thing about turnovers is that you can force them, but a lot of it is just how the ball bounces or how dumb the guy with the ball feels like being. Saints defensive coordinator likes to blitz a lot. Then blitz some more. Then mix in some blitzes when he's done blitzing just to mix things up.

Sometimes, you blitz a quarterback and he does something dumb or you get a sack. Sometimes, you blitz a quarterback and he makes a big play. That's the contract you enter into when Gregg Williams is your defensive coordinator.

That contract paid off big time last season, as quarterbacks decided to be dumb more than they decided to make a big play. Sometimes, the ball tipped off a receiver's hand because the quarterback rushed the throw. Most times, that tipped ball went to a New Orleans defender. That's not happening us much this year and the defense is suffering.

The best way to pressure Ben Roethlisberger is to pressure him up the middle and contain the edges. When he is faced with this situation, sometimes he'll take a sack. Sometimes he'll do something really dumb (like against Miami last week). Sometimes he'll bust out of a tackle and make a big play. I just think he makes more big plays than he takes sacks and makes dumb mistakes on Sunday night. Blitzing is a high risk, high reward proposition. The Saints reaped the rewards in 2009 and they're realizing the risks this season.

With Corey Ivy and Ladell Betts at tailback and a high risk defense, I just don't think New Orleans has what it takes to beat the Steelers.

Vegas agrees. The line opened with the Saints favored by 3 or 4. There must have been a ton of action for the Steelers, because the line is now Pittsburgh by 1. I think the Steelers cover easily.

The only thing that worries me is that I'm not worried.

Prediction: Steelers 28, Saints 17

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Steelers vs.Dolphins Review

Hey, the Steelers won. They're 5-1 and they're one game ahead in their division. Let's stick with that. That's our story and we're sticking to it.

Let's not worry about the fact that they possibly lost Aaron Smith for the season -- which is one of the things that doomed them last year -- and that Flozell Adams could be done or that Woodley could miss a lot of time.

Let's get past the fact that they maybe should've not had the opportunity to kick that field goal. The Miami fans and papers should do that. The Dolphins had the ball deep in Steelers territory twice early in the game and got two field goals. They later got inside the ten and got a field goal as well. Miami has no one to blame but themselves. Blaming the officials for one play that was correctly called, then the ball got lost in the pile and couldn't be accurately reviewed, smacks of bitter Seahawks fans and no one wants that.

I'm happy that the passing game looked sharp. I'm not especially worried about the offensive line -- even Legursky, who had two holding penalties -- and not hugely worried about the running game. The Dolphins have a great run defense and the Steelers aren't a great running team. I'm happy that the team won. And I'm especially happy that the defense actually came up with a stop with under two minutes to play, even if the Dolphins aren't exactly the 2007 Patriots.

But, I have to say that I'm more than a little concerned that I was right about the early bye week and the fact that the team might not hold up throughout the course of the season. If Smith and Adams are lost for the year, they don't have the necessary depth to weather the storm. They might be able to get by for a few games, but with Nick Eason and Jonathan Scott in there, there's only so far they will be able to get in the playoffs (if they make it there).

The depth on this team is not great, which was one of the things that worried me heading into the season. They can withstand injuries at inside linebacker, cornerback, and possibly an injury to Ryan Clark, but that's about it. If Mendenhall goes down, a receiver gets hurt (especially Wallace), any more injuries strike the offensive or defensive line, or if Leftwich, Dixon, or Batch needs to play more than a half, this team is in deep, deep trouble.

They looked unstoppable through the first few games because injuries had not caught up with them. Well, injuries are starting to catch up because their old bodies are starting to break down. Let's just hope they don't break down any further.

They've got two tough road games coming up -- one against the defending champs of the league and one against the defending champs of the AFC North. I don't care that the Bengals are playing like the Bungles this year. They will still play the Steelers tough.

On top of that, there are three straight prime time games on the schedule -- Sunday night against the Saints, then Monday night against Cincy, then Sunday night against the Patriots. At least the game against New England is at home, where the Steelers tend to fare better.

If you had given me a choice of a Steelers loss, but they get to keep Adams and Smith healthy for the rest of the year or a Steelers win and they lose Adams and Smith, I would have taken a loss. But, the team got a win. They lost some players. There was a controversial call at the end of the game -- where they still would've had two timeouts, the best run defense in the league, and the two minute warning had Miami gotten the ball back, just saying -- but all that needs to be put behind us.

At this point, the Steelers and their fans need to play the hand they are dealt. I am therefore issuing a challenge to the Steelers much in the same way that I issued a challenge to the defense in 2008. If they win these next three games, they are a dominant team. If they go 2-1, they are a great team. If they go 1-2, they're a very good team. Even if they go 0-3, they're still a good team, but they will have a long road ahead of them.

Let's just hope it doesn't come to that.

Steelers-Browns Review

Well, again, it was the Browns. I can't get too excited about the fact that the offense scored 28 points because I have to consider the defense.

The good news is that the 28 points that the Steelers scored against Cleveland were earned. It wasn't like the Tampa game, where Charlie Batch had two touchdowns on balls that should have been intercepted and Brett Keisel returned an interception for a touchdown that took approximately six minutes to consummate, so one can only assume that the offensive players went to the sideline and got a head start on their hydration routine instead of chasing the play. It's possible that the Steelers poured a little salt on the wounds by going for the touchdown on their last drive. But, hey, I will take the points and the correct prediction.

Still, Roethlisberger looked pretty rusty and it wasn't until the second half that he started to shake some of that rust off. Mike Wallace had this to say after the game: "I really didn't want [Roethlisberger] to be flawless coming back. Then, we wouldn't really have anything to work on ... I think it's going to make for a better team because, come Wednesday, we go back to practice and we're going to work even harder."

Well, Mr. Wallace and Mr. Schaffer and Mr. Rooney, I will have to respectfully disagree. If Roethlisberger came out and didn't show any rust and was freakin' perfect, then you'd still have something to work on. You'd have to work on maintaining a level of perfection, which is harder than just working on getting better, which is kind of a nebulous goal.

Here's the thing: I need to approach the rest of the season with guarded optimism. I think that the defense looks great. Outstanding. Perhaps even at 2008 levels. I think that the offense is consistently improving -- not just the addition of Roethlisberger, but the offensive line has vastly improved, the receivers haven't missed a beat without Santonio Holmes, and I'm almost sold on Mendenhall if he'd stop spinning so much -- and that they'll continue to improve. That means that, with Vulva and Jeff Reed, this could be a complete team. Sure, Antonio Brown is still dead to me, but he's good enough.

If you look around the league, everyone else has issues. There's no complete team out there. The Cowboys are in disarray, the Colts don't seem to want to run the ball and they've had issues in their division, the Patriots have injuries piling up and no one in their right mind trusts the defense, the Packers don't have a running game or a clutch defense, the Vikings have Brett Favre, the Eagles still don't know who their quarterback is, the hated Ravens suddenly look vulnerable on defense, the Chargers are a mess, and no one knows what to make of the Jets or their quarterback. If the Steelers can fix their offense and hold it together on defense, then they can make a serious run.

That's if they hold it together on defense. They had an early bye week this year and a lot of the guys are really, really old. If they can hold it together, I think they can go a long way, because I think the offense will get together -- and in a hurry.

Before I sign off, I want to weigh in on the Harrison Fine.

When I first heard that he got fined, was excused from practice, and was thinking about retirement, I thought that he had a torn labrum and just needed to stop complaining. When I eventually read the coverage on the fine, I realized that the fine was levied on his hit on Massaquoi, not his hit on Cribbs.

The Cribbs hit was dirty. I was surprised that there wasn't a penalty. By the letter of the NFL Law, you're not supposed to lead with your helmet. Harrison was leading with his helmet all the way on that hit. Best case scenario, he knocks out Cribbs. Worst case scenario, he drives his helmet into Cribbs' back. If Harrison had gotten fined for that hit, I would have accepted it.

The hit on Massaquoi was not dirty. Harrison complained that he can no longer play football because hits like the one he laid on Massaquoi were what he's been taught to do since he was ten years old. Well, obviously. For the same reason, receivers like Massaquoi have been taught to protect themselves since they were ten. Coaches will tell them, "If you catch a short pass over of the middle or in the flat be careful. That's where the linebackers are. They're big, they're strong, they're scary, and they will murder you if they think the refs will allow it."

For that reason, Massaquoi should have been ready. He should have expected a hit. For all the announcers praise Hines Ward for being a tough guy and a warrior, have you ever seen him take a hit where you would have considered him to be defenseless? Of course not. He listened to his coaches. Hines always defends himself -- or moves out of the way of an on-rushing defender that is leading with his helmet -- if he thinks there is going to be serious contact.

The helmet-to-helmet rules were set up to enforce player safety. What the players don't realize is that they're trying to defend the hitter as much as they're trying to defend the hittee. Harrison could've knocked himself out with that hit, but he's fortunate he did it. He was able to brace himself.

What the NFL needs to do is start enforcing leading with the helmet against players who attack running backs and quarterbacks that aren't high-profile. What they need to do is penalize and fine players that lead with their helmet in a deliberate attempt to harm another player -- which Harrison did against Cribbs, but not Massaquoi. They need to protect all players, not just short-armed receivers in the deep seam.

Any player that leaves himself defenseless obviously doesn't understand the game of football. But, any player that uses his helmet as a weapon and deliberately tries to hurt another player with it does not understand the game and has no regard for his own safety. That is what the NFL needs to crack down on.

Steelers vs. Browns Preview

C'mon. It's the Browns.

I know that they've been close in every game this year. I know they've fought hard. I know they're a young team with something to prove and they just beat the Bengals and hung tough against the Falcons. I know they hate us more than we hate them. I know they beat us when they were 1-12 last season and we needed to win to stay in the playoff hunt.

But... it's the Browns.

I also know that Colt McCoy will be starting, Peyton Hillis is gimpy, and they don't have any legitimate receiving threats. The defense has been (mostly) unstoppable this year, so they should crush Cleveland.

The Browns are 14 point underdogs (the line started at 15.5, so Vegas is obviously trying to push the action to Cleveland) and that has to upset them. But, the last time I talked about an upsetting point spread, the Steelers beat Tampa 38-10.

I think the defense will be fine and this is the lightest challenge they have faced thus far this season. I think the real x-factor here is Ben Roethlisberger.

He's started two Super Bowls (XL and XLIII, which the Steelers won), a number of playoff games, and a number of games where he was returning from a serious injury (or bike crash), but this may be the most important start of Roethlisberger's career.

He knows the fans are mad at him. He knows that he needs to make it up to them. He knows that the best way to do that is to go out and destroy the Browns in his first start back. Then, he needs to keep winning and keep playing well. He also needs to stay out of trouble and keep Lil' Roethlisberger in his pants, but I think we all knew that.

The team weathered those first four games and did very well. It's now time for Roethlisberger to take over and prove that he's an elite quarterback that makes this team significantly better. I think he can do that. I think he knows what's at stake on Sunday and I think he will be able to handle it and handle it well.

Really, the only thing that scares me is Josh Cribbs. If that dude blows up and/or Cleveland gets a defensive touchdown, the Steelers could be in for a long day. Even if those things do happen, though, I still think the Steelers win, just not by as much. I think they know that there's too much on the line to come out flat. I don't think they come out flat. I think they come out fired up and that makes all the difference.

Prediction:

Steelers 28, Browns 10

Bye Week FAQ

How do you feel?

I feel pretty good. I think I would actually feel more ill-at-ease if the Steelers were heading into the Browns game with a 4-0 record. I think there was bound to be a letdown on defense when Ben Roethlisberger came back because everyone would just assume that the offense was going to take it from here. But, after everyone had way too much faith in the offense after the Tampa game and they let the team down, I think that the whole team realizes that it's going to take a team effort for the balance of the season.

I'm also glad that the next game is against Cleveland. The Browns are starting Colt McCoy at quarterback and the Steelers should be fired up. Sure, the Browns beat the Bengals, but so did Tampa, so maybe the Bengals are back to being in the Land of Suck.

The one thing I know is that the hated Ravens are a good team. Very beatable, especially by the Steelers when they have the right quarterback, but they're not going to go away.

But, ultimately, I was heading into the season thinking that 2-2 would be a very respectable start, so I'm super happy at 3-1 and we got the letdown game out of the way.

You must feel pretty dumb about thinking the defense was going to suck.

That's not a question.

You must feel pretty dumb about thinking the defense was going to suck, right?

I do feel a little dumb about being so down on them early on the offseason. But, by the time the preseason came along, I was basically on the trolley, sipping some Kool Aid. I was sipping it because I saw Ed Buchette throw down about three cups and he was slouched over in the corner.

Right now, I'm still a little cautious given the fact that they've shown shades of 2009 already this season. The big issue with the defense is that they're old. The good news is that LaMarr Woodley is playing great, James Harrison has caught his eighth wind, and Lawrence Timmons is living up to his draft stock. The issue is that I think Larry Foote or Keyaron Fox may be better at the Buck linebacker position than Farrior at this point. I think he's hurting the defense more than he's helping.

As long as no one gets seriously hurt -- like injured reserve hurt -- on the defensive line and Troy and Ryan Clark stay healthy in the secondary, I think we will be good to go. The other thing that needs to start happening is to start getting the young guys more reps. I think they are ready, especially Ziggy Hood. I hate to say it, but he might be a better option at end than Aaron Smith or Brett Keisel at this point.

What are your thoughts on the offensive line?

So glad you asked. In 2008/2009 they were dreadful. Heading into the season, I thought they may have upgraded to decent. At this point, I would say that they are pretty good. Considering that the Steelers won Super Bowl XLIII (yep, we won that game) with a dreadful offensive line, I am OK with pretty good.

The pass protection has gotten a lot better, particularly with regard to blitz recognition, but the big steps have been taken in the running game. Legursky and Pouncey are big time upgrades and Flozell Adams -- even though I don't trust his creaky, old body -- is basically a wash with Willie Colon. Maybe Adams is slightly better because he doesn't commit dumb penalties and is a little bigger and more physical.

Success in the running game is equal parts attitude, talent, and execution. The Steelers of the 70s really only ran counters and traps and everyone knew it. No one could stop it because they had a lot of good players and they executed the crap out of those plays. The Electric Company of the OJ Simpson days were unstoppable because they were super talented and they just knew that no one was going to be able to stop them.

The talent level is better this year, but I think the attitude has improved as well. Those linemen come out now expecting to be able to run the ball instead of waiting for the other shoe to drop. That will make a big difference for the balance of the season and (hopefully) in the playoffs.

Playoffs? Playoffs?!?! PLAYOFFS?!?!?

Yes. I said playoffs. With the remaining schedule and the fact that this team looks like it's for real, I think it's realistic to start thinking about the playoffs. I'm not making any Jim Fassell guarantees -- especially since the hated Ravens have a head-to-head win on the Steelers and they're not going away -- but it is looking very promising right now.

So... the offense is totally fixed now that Ben's back, right? Right?

Well, maybe. I know that the Steelers are currently ranked 31st in the league in pass offense right now. That will certainly improve. I know that they're struggling in the red zone and struggling in general to score points against anyone that isn't Tampa right now. That will improve. But, I can't say that sliding Roethlisberger in there will fix everything, but it will go a long way towards making the offense more potent and effective.

Right now, we'll just have to wait and see. His timing might be off -- though the bye week work they put in will help prevent that from happening -- and it will take him some time to re-adjust to the speed of the game and reading coverages in real time, but I think we'll definitely see a big spike in passing production.

Wow, you seem real positive. Any complaints?

The defense could still break my heart. At this point, I'm starting to trust them, I'm off the couch and back in the bedroom, but we're sleeping in separate beds. I just keep thinking back to last year and I don't want to set myself up to get hurt.

The return game is horrible. I know that Antonio Brown had a kick return for a touchdown against the Titans, but that was a trick play. Plus which, that dude is dead to me. In the game against the hated Ravens, he caught the final kickoff about seven yards deep in the end zone, hesitated -- at which point everyone in the stadium was screaming, "NO NO NO! DON'T RUN IT OUT!" -- and then ran the kick back to the 15. So, we lost about five seconds off the clock and five yards of field position. It's not as though Batch was going to drive the team down the field and get a field goal, but that was just stupid. Randle-El is a fair-catching machine.

Then, Stefan Logan had a 105 yard kickoff return for a touchdown this week. Not that I want Logan back, but that was just a groin shot that I didn't need.

And... Jeff Reed has me worried. He's missed four kicks already this year and he doesn't seem quite so automatic at Heinz Field anymore. I dropped him from my fantasy teams, but I still don't think we should even consider dropping him from the Steelers. I have faith that he will turn things around... just really hope he does it soon.

Finally, if this team is basically a carbon copy of the 2008 team only with a better offensive line, then I am SUPER happy about the fact that we can add "great punter" to that list, since Vulva is not hurt. He has been very impressive and I hope he punts for the team for a long, long time.

Steelers vs. Hated Ravens Review

If I had put in a prediction for this game, I would have predicted the Steelers to lose. This is not because I actually thought the Steelers would lose, but I had a track record of predicting them to lose, then they'd win. I was going to keep that up until they finally lost, then start making real predictions.

So, Sunday's loss is kind of a relief, because I was having a tough time trying to think of how the Steelers would lose to Cleveland. Then I thought of some other stuff about the Browns game coming up in Week 6, but more on that later.

I am bummed because I went to the game and Steelers lost, which puts my overall record at 12-3. It seems like so long ago that I was actually undefeated.

But, I had fun at the game, it was a great game, and I was able to get a ticket for one of my brother's groomsmen. He had never been to a professional football game and it was a great experience for him. The day would've been perfect if the Steelers had managed to win. Ultimately, though, I can't say that I'm that upset about the loss. The big thing is that I would have preferred it be to someone outside of the division, or, really someone outside of the conference. And I really really really wish it hadn't come at home against the hated Ravens.

Overall, though, I feel good about this season and I have reconciled Sunday's game.

This is for three reasons:

1. The Steelers are 3-1 and are heading into their bye week. I'm sure that every Steeler fan on the planet would've taken a 3-1 start when the season started.
   
2. Ben Roethlisberger comes back after the bye and will have a full week to get himself situated and prepare for Cleveland.
3. The Steelers would have won Sunday's game if Ben Roethlisberger was the quarterback instead of Charlie Batch. The Smithsonian must have noticed that Batch's arm was missing and taken it back. Roethlisberger would have made two or three of the key long throws that Batch couldn't make and the Steelers would've won.

But, there's one thing that worries me.

I know that the Steelers would have won on Sunday if Roethlisberger was starting... but I'm not sure that they'd be 3-1 or 4-0 if he started these first four games. There seemed to be something unique about those first three games. The defense had more fire, they got more pressure on the quarterback, seemed to be hitting harder. I think they understood that the offense wasn't going to win the game for them, so they had to go out and win it.

On Sunday, I think they had a little too much faith in Charlie Batch, even when he showed there was no reason to have faith in him. I think they might already be tired. I think they might already be starting to show their age, as evidenced by the ease of the last touchdown drive by the hated Ravens and possibly even how they let up and almost seemed to roll over in the last half of the fourth quarter against the Titans.

After the bye, the offense should be much better. But, I'm very skeptical of the thinking that Roethlisberger will fix the offense automatically; just by showing up. That seems to me to be a lot like trying to save a bad marriage by having a kid. The Steelers offense is still broken and one piece -- even one really big, really important piece -- won't be able to completely fix it.

I think a lot of people were too quick to accept that the offense was fixed just because it looked good against Tampa. I think the defense relaxed and may already have worn themselves out by carrying the offense for a month.

The defense is great, but it's also very old. Some new guys need to get more reps. The defense needs to slowly get younger, because suddenly overhauling an entire defense is a good way to finish in the bottom third of the league.

So, if you take the fact that the defense may already be worn out, the offense is overrated and possibly broken, and that no one knows what to expect from Roethlisberger -- or how the fans will react -- then you've got a pretty compelling argument that the Steelers will be a worse team after the bye with Roethlisberger.

I'm not saying keep Batch in there. Dear God, please, no. I'm not saying put in Leftwich or even my boyfriend Dennis Dixon. Ben Roethlisberger gives the Steelers the best chance to win -- and by a wide margin.

I'm saying that no one should expect the Steelers to start winning 38-6 every week (highest scoring effort of the season matched with best defensive effort of the season) just because they looked good as a team with their fourth string quarterback behind center and now have their first string guy. I'm also saying that it's possible that the Cleveland game could go the other way and the Steelers could lose 19-14 (highest points allowed, lowest points scored) or worse.

The defense might let down and the offense might not get on track. That could also persist for a couple of games. Or longer.

Having said all that, I'm still glad that they're 3-1, I still think they are in good shape, and I think they weathered this first storm well. The key will be how they weather the coming (possible) storm.