The news surrounding Hines Ward's future with the Steelers has been unreliable and has pretty much changed by the day, but the one thing that's well established is that he's not staying on the team at a price tag of $4 million. He's said he's willing to re-structure his contract and make less and the Steelers have said that they'd love to have him back if the price is right.
My only problem with the situation is this: If they're both thinking the same thing, why hasn't this gotten done yet? My guess is that it's because Ward's idea of re-structuring is more like $2 million and the Steelers idea of the "right price" is the veteran minimum. That means they've been staring at each other since February 11th when news broke that the Steelers were going to cut Ward, and both of them are waiting for the other to blink. Ward has a clause in his contract that the Steelers need to tell him whether or not he's going to be on the team by Thursday, March 1st, not March 13th when free agency begins. That means that someone had better blink soon. Since the Steelers are still over the cap, I'm thinking that Hines will need to blink first. Otherwise, he's gone.
So, assuming that Ward is willing to take the veteran minimum ($925,000 in his case), we end up with another question: Is he worth retaining, even at that price?
If the Steelers manage to retain Mike Wallace -- which is starting to look more and more likely -- and also re-sign Jerricho Cotchery, that puts Ward fifth on the depth chart behind Wallace, Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, and Cotchery. Future Hall of Famer or not, $925,000 is a lot of money to pay a fifth wide receiver that (presumably) won't help out on special teams.
There's the argument that Ward will be able to contribute in other ways, such as tutoring and developing all the young receiving talent currently ahead of him on the depth chart. I think there's something to that, since I firmly believe that Terrance Mathis helped Antwan Randle-El considerably in his rookie year, but that was a different situation. Mathis was a specialist: He was a smaller guy that played slot receiver and returned kicks, just like El. He had a unique perspective and set of experiences that helped make El into the player he became.
Ward doesn't have much in common with the other receivers on the roster. Plus which, aside from teaching guys how to block, I haven't heard much about Hines coaching and tutoring young guys. There's nothing wrong with the fact that he doesn't do it, but Jerome Bettis added value in his later years by giving advice to Willie Parker, helping him become the back he was. Bettis was able to do that even though he and Parker had vastly different builds and running styles. I don't think Ward adds that extra value. Plus which, as Mike Prisuta correctly pointed out on DVE, there are guys that already get paid to teach players. They're called coaches.
Once the Steelers got Hines to 1,000 receptions, he completely disappeared. I don't remember seeing him on the field after that. If he's not going to be an effective surrogate coach, he's not going to be involved on offense, and he's not going to contribute on special teams, then he's not worth $925, to say nothing of $925,000. That sucks to say, but it's true. From a business/team perspective, it doesn't make sense to retain Ward, even at the veteran minimum. They're better off grabbing a cheaper rookie in the late rounds or as an undrafted free agent for the fifth spot and developing that guy from there.
But... here's the thing. It's weird to think of Hines playing for another team. It's weird that Franco Harris closed out his career with the Seahawks. As a fan, I don't want this to get weird.
Here's the other thing: It's highly unlikely that the Steelers will sign Wallace and Cotchery by Thursday. If they don't sign either of those guys, then Hines becomes a bargain at 925K as the third receiver. I don't think that will happen, but I can't guarantee that it won't. Signing Ward gives them insurance -- and at a pretty good rate -- if they don't sign Wallace or Cotchery. If they do sign both of those guys, then Cotchery can help out on special teams and they have insurance in case anyone gets hurt. Wallace had a calf issue last season, Cotchery had hamstring problems, and Sanders wasn't available until about mid season.
Steelers N At Official Stance:
Hines should stay.
Monday, February 27, 2012
Sunday, February 26, 2012
The Todd Haley Situation
It's been quite some time since I posted anything -- a little over three weeks -- so I figured I'd try to catch up.
When I heard that Todd Haley was interviewing for the offensive coordinator job, I was less than pleased. I knew the Steelers would end up hiring him and I had some serious reservations about him. The more I thought about it, the more I realized those reservations boiled down to one thing: Ken Whisenhunt had a chance to bring Haley back in the Steelers West fold and decided against it. That's really it. My thinking was, Haley is a known quantity in Arizona. I thought that, if Whisenhunt passed on the opportunity to bring Haley back, then he must be damaged goods.
Now, that could still be true, but Haley does bring a lot of positive things to the table.
When I heard that Todd Haley was interviewing for the offensive coordinator job, I was less than pleased. I knew the Steelers would end up hiring him and I had some serious reservations about him. The more I thought about it, the more I realized those reservations boiled down to one thing: Ken Whisenhunt had a chance to bring Haley back in the Steelers West fold and decided against it. That's really it. My thinking was, Haley is a known quantity in Arizona. I thought that, if Whisenhunt passed on the opportunity to bring Haley back, then he must be damaged goods.
Now, that could still be true, but Haley does bring a lot of positive things to the table.
- When he's had the personnel to work with, his offenses have always performed well. I'm giving him a pass for last year in Kansas City, even if the Chiefs did not.
- He doesn't have an existing relationship with Ben Roethlisberger and the first few weeks of their current relationship have been rocky.
- He's not a passing guy or a running guy. He's a guy that takes the players he has on hand and designs the offense from there.
For #1, you could look at his track record in Arizona or the fact that he helped turn Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe into fantasy football all-stars in 2010.
Number 2 and Number 3 are both positive and important because those two qualities make him the polar opposite of Bruce Arians. The big things that always annoyed me about Arians were the facts that he was too buddy-buddy with Roethlisberger and he was always fond of saying, "The offense is the offense." Basically, he had his design, the players would run it, and the other team's defense needed to try and stop it. When it worked, it was very effective. When it didn't, Arians was very reluctant to adjust, and the offense was not so effective.
A lot has been made about the fact that Roethlisberger wasn't happy with the decision to let Arians go and that he hasn't been very responsive to Haley since it was announced he would be the team's next offensive coordinator. I think that talk is overblown and that most of it, if not all of it, will be forgotten when the team reports back to work. Remember when Roethlisberger's suspension was supposed to divide the team? Or Rashard Mendenhall's Twitter remarks? James Harrison's Men's Journal interview? Hines Ward's DUI? None of it did. This longer room is too tight, too strong, and Mike Tomlin has these guys too focused to get derailed by any distractions.
It also couldn't hurt for Roethlisberger to feel that he has something to prove and that there are people out there that don't believe in him. He's a very self-motivated guy, but he can often become complacent. I think the Haley hiring will light a bit of a fire under him.
When Haley had Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston, he threw the ball a lot and the offense was extremely successful. When he had Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles, he ran the ball a lot and the offense was extremely successful. When Charles blew out his knee early in the 2011 season and Matt Cassel was placed on injured reserve, Haley did the best he could with Dexter McCluster and Tyler Palko.
Since Mendenhall will probably start the season on the PUP list and Ike Redman isn't exactly a franchise back, Haley will probably focus on throwing the ball more. He's got Roethlisberger and a bunch of talent at wide receiver -- which is similar to the situation he had in Arizona -- so it makes sense to get eight or nine yards per pass attempt instead of three or four yards per rush attempt.
The only issue there is if ownership keeps meddling with the offense. They already dropped the ball big time by completely screwing up the Arians firing/retiring/lack of contract extension. My hope is that they take more of a "hands off" approach, at least for the upcoming season, and let the football people do their jobs.
That's my hope, anyway.
Saturday, February 04, 2012
Handicapping the Super Bowl
(Side Note: I'm not sure I can use the words "Super Bowl" to describe tomorrow's game. That has a copyright on it, doesn't it? Now that I have eight followers instead of two, I need to watch out for stuff like this. I've finally crested $6 on Google Ad words -- click the links on the ads, please! -- and I don't want to see my mighty empire come crashing down. But, I'm going to live dangerously.)
If you're here to get gambling tips -- which is a bad move, since I did a horrible job handicapping the Championship Round -- then I like the Giants to win outright (+130) and the Over (53).
Here's why...
The Patriots defense, in my mind, is a constant. They're always bad. They'll give up 24-28 points a game on a consistent basis, but they won 15 games because they consistently put up 30 or more points on offense. This has been especially true during their current ten game win streak. The reason they were able to keep Denver and Baltimore at 20 points or under -- and the hated Ravens could have scored 23 or 27 in that game had a couple things gone their way -- is because those teams don't quality depth at receiver. If New England is facing a team that does have depth at receiver, then they need to decide who to put Julian Edelman on. If you're not familiar with Edelman, he a quarterback-turned-receiver-turned-cornerback who has played more snaps on defense than he has on offense this season. He's a gifted athlete and a hell of a team player, but he is an awful cornerback. In the AFC Championship game, Baltimore was able to get Anquan Boldin isolated on Edelman and Edelman got abused. I like Boldin and I think he's a great player, but he's not very dynamic or explosive. He's also not as explosive as Mario Manningham, Hakeem Nicks, and especially not as explosive as Victor Cruz.
If Kevin Gilbride (offensive coordinator for the Giants) can find a way to match Cruz up on Edelman through formations and motion, then this game is going to get ugly in a hurry. Cruz had a huge game against a significantly better 49ers secondary in the championship round and he's a special player. My guess is that Bill Belichick will focus on taking Cruz away first, but that still leaves Manningham and Nicks and still leaves him with someone to assign Edelman to.
Even if New York isn't able to run the ball effectively and the Patriots play mostly zone to take away the long ball and force Eli Manning to throw the ball into tight spots, it still won't end well for New England. That just means the Giants will be able to mix in some Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. Also, the Patriots zone defense is even worse than their man coverage. I think Belichick realized this about halfway through the season -- right after they lost two straight to the Steelers and Giants -- and switched to more man schemes. He just needed to find a way each game to insulate Edelman by assigning him to the team's worst receiver. New York's worst receiver is still considerably better than Edelman. The opportunities will be there for the Giants on offense and I think that they will be able to take advantage of those opportunities.
So, Eli and company are going to be able to score points. Will they be able to score more than Tom Brady's offense?
For me, this comes down to Rob Gronkowski. He has a high ankle sprain, he's listed as questionable, and he's expected to play. That's fine, but I keep wondering how limited he'll be and how effective he'll be given his limitations. Steeler fans have come to know (and hate) the high ankle sprain and we've had a lot of experience with it over the last two seasons. It's true that Gronkowski is younger than Roethlisberger and he's had two weeks to rest and get better, but I think there's an upper limit of what rest and recovery will do for an injury like this. From everything I've seen and read, it just takes time, and Gronk hasn't had enough time for it to heal fully. He may have a different, less severe, lower grade high ankle sprain than Roethlisberger, but you also can't get a little bit pregnant. You either have a high ankle sprain or you don't. Roethlisberger was able to play through his injury, but he was less effective. Gronkowski will probably be able to play through the pain as well -- and he's getting fitted with a special shoe for the game -- but tight ends need to run more than quarterbacks. I think the injury will slow him down and wear him down, which takes away a big weapon for the Patriots.
Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker are great players, but they're not game breakers like Gronkowski. They'll be able to help Brady out and New England will be able to move the ball, but I don't think either of these guys is going to make a play that will break the game wide open. Welker's also listed as questionable with a knee injury. He'll play, too, but is he 100 percent? I doubt it. He had six catches for 53 yards against Baltimore and six catches for 55 yards against Denver. The numbers against the hated Ravens are understandable, especially considering that Brady struggled in that game. But Brady threw for 363 yards and six touchdowns against the Broncos and Welker ended up with 6/55 (with one touchdown). He's not 100 percent and this offense will not be the same if Hernandez and Deion Branch are their primary weapons.
Then there's the New York pass rush, which is pretty good. They were the key in Super Bowl XLII and they will be the key again. Even with Welker and Gronkowski being limited, this is still a potent Patriots offense with a Hall of Fame quarterback and an outstanding offensive line. New England knows that they'll need to score a ton of points to win this game and they'll be highly motivated to do so. In any game against the Patriots, stopping the offense means getting to Tom Brady with four guys. In New England's three losses -- and near losses to Baltimore and Miami -- the common thread has been that Brady has not had a good game. He threw four picks against the Bills and was ineffective against the Steelers. He had two interceptions and was inconsistent in the red zone against the hated Ravens. Get in Brady's head and you have a chance.
The front four for the Giants know that they are the key to this game. They understand that success on defense begins and ends with them. I think they're up to the task and I think they're ready to get after it.
Still, the Patriots aren't known for rolling over and playing dead. The Giants are going to score a lot of points because of the match-ups and New England is going to score a lot of points because they have to, and because they're still very good. I see a close, high-scoring game, with New York coming out on top.
Prediction:
Giants 31, Patriots 28
If you're here to get gambling tips -- which is a bad move, since I did a horrible job handicapping the Championship Round -- then I like the Giants to win outright (+130) and the Over (53).
Here's why...
The Patriots defense, in my mind, is a constant. They're always bad. They'll give up 24-28 points a game on a consistent basis, but they won 15 games because they consistently put up 30 or more points on offense. This has been especially true during their current ten game win streak. The reason they were able to keep Denver and Baltimore at 20 points or under -- and the hated Ravens could have scored 23 or 27 in that game had a couple things gone their way -- is because those teams don't quality depth at receiver. If New England is facing a team that does have depth at receiver, then they need to decide who to put Julian Edelman on. If you're not familiar with Edelman, he a quarterback-turned-receiver-turned-cornerback who has played more snaps on defense than he has on offense this season. He's a gifted athlete and a hell of a team player, but he is an awful cornerback. In the AFC Championship game, Baltimore was able to get Anquan Boldin isolated on Edelman and Edelman got abused. I like Boldin and I think he's a great player, but he's not very dynamic or explosive. He's also not as explosive as Mario Manningham, Hakeem Nicks, and especially not as explosive as Victor Cruz.
If Kevin Gilbride (offensive coordinator for the Giants) can find a way to match Cruz up on Edelman through formations and motion, then this game is going to get ugly in a hurry. Cruz had a huge game against a significantly better 49ers secondary in the championship round and he's a special player. My guess is that Bill Belichick will focus on taking Cruz away first, but that still leaves Manningham and Nicks and still leaves him with someone to assign Edelman to.
Even if New York isn't able to run the ball effectively and the Patriots play mostly zone to take away the long ball and force Eli Manning to throw the ball into tight spots, it still won't end well for New England. That just means the Giants will be able to mix in some Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. Also, the Patriots zone defense is even worse than their man coverage. I think Belichick realized this about halfway through the season -- right after they lost two straight to the Steelers and Giants -- and switched to more man schemes. He just needed to find a way each game to insulate Edelman by assigning him to the team's worst receiver. New York's worst receiver is still considerably better than Edelman. The opportunities will be there for the Giants on offense and I think that they will be able to take advantage of those opportunities.
So, Eli and company are going to be able to score points. Will they be able to score more than Tom Brady's offense?
For me, this comes down to Rob Gronkowski. He has a high ankle sprain, he's listed as questionable, and he's expected to play. That's fine, but I keep wondering how limited he'll be and how effective he'll be given his limitations. Steeler fans have come to know (and hate) the high ankle sprain and we've had a lot of experience with it over the last two seasons. It's true that Gronkowski is younger than Roethlisberger and he's had two weeks to rest and get better, but I think there's an upper limit of what rest and recovery will do for an injury like this. From everything I've seen and read, it just takes time, and Gronk hasn't had enough time for it to heal fully. He may have a different, less severe, lower grade high ankle sprain than Roethlisberger, but you also can't get a little bit pregnant. You either have a high ankle sprain or you don't. Roethlisberger was able to play through his injury, but he was less effective. Gronkowski will probably be able to play through the pain as well -- and he's getting fitted with a special shoe for the game -- but tight ends need to run more than quarterbacks. I think the injury will slow him down and wear him down, which takes away a big weapon for the Patriots.
Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker are great players, but they're not game breakers like Gronkowski. They'll be able to help Brady out and New England will be able to move the ball, but I don't think either of these guys is going to make a play that will break the game wide open. Welker's also listed as questionable with a knee injury. He'll play, too, but is he 100 percent? I doubt it. He had six catches for 53 yards against Baltimore and six catches for 55 yards against Denver. The numbers against the hated Ravens are understandable, especially considering that Brady struggled in that game. But Brady threw for 363 yards and six touchdowns against the Broncos and Welker ended up with 6/55 (with one touchdown). He's not 100 percent and this offense will not be the same if Hernandez and Deion Branch are their primary weapons.
Then there's the New York pass rush, which is pretty good. They were the key in Super Bowl XLII and they will be the key again. Even with Welker and Gronkowski being limited, this is still a potent Patriots offense with a Hall of Fame quarterback and an outstanding offensive line. New England knows that they'll need to score a ton of points to win this game and they'll be highly motivated to do so. In any game against the Patriots, stopping the offense means getting to Tom Brady with four guys. In New England's three losses -- and near losses to Baltimore and Miami -- the common thread has been that Brady has not had a good game. He threw four picks against the Bills and was ineffective against the Steelers. He had two interceptions and was inconsistent in the red zone against the hated Ravens. Get in Brady's head and you have a chance.
The front four for the Giants know that they are the key to this game. They understand that success on defense begins and ends with them. I think they're up to the task and I think they're ready to get after it.
Still, the Patriots aren't known for rolling over and playing dead. The Giants are going to score a lot of points because of the match-ups and New England is going to score a lot of points because they have to, and because they're still very good. I see a close, high-scoring game, with New York coming out on top.
Prediction:
Giants 31, Patriots 28
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