Voodoo at Power preview

Another tough loss last week.  The Power kept it competitive, but at some point they need to start winning games, even if other teams losing keep us in the playoff hunt.  There are three teams that need to finish with a worse record than the Power, and they had a chance to beat each of them, one right after the other.  So far, that didn't work against the Preds -who were the most important of the three - but we still have NOLA and the Gladiators to go.

This week is the New Orleans Voodoo, a team that the Power successfully beat in their house and is also a team that hasn't won on the road so far this season.  Granted, the Power doesn't have a great record at home, but it's a winnable game.

The big problem Saturday night is going to be Captain Morgan himself.

I can't count the number of times that's been the case

Donovan Morgan is a force of nature on offense.  When he's on his game, no one else on the team seems that scary - and given that this game is just as important to the Voodoo as it is to the Power, expect him to be on his game.

The question mark for both teams is quarterback.  The Power continue their random roll call for QB every week - it looks like Sheffield will be under center this week, but that's never a sure thing.  He might have "family issues" again at the last minute, Austin might be really on it in practice, or Coach Sting might just feel like throwing Cassidy in again.  We don't know.  On the Voodoo side of things, Kurt Rocco is their starter.  He let the team to a strong showing last year, but he's been struggling this season.  After a pretty bad showing last week, Chris Dixon might be in.  I'd rather that - replacement QBs on the road are generally less dangerous than a troubled starting QB.

Wrapping up the season:

Down the stretch here, the Power is 2 games back from the Preds, and some wins need to stack up.  The Preds will face Sharks, Rattlers, 'Stormers, Gladiators and Voodoo.  Sharks are a rival, so it's tough to call.  Ratts will be a loss.  Iowa, Cleveland and NOLA should all be wins, but they'll probably drop one of them.  So, optimistically, the Preds will go 2-3 in their last five.  Optimistically.

What does that mean for the Power?  Nothing good.  That would mean that the Power needs to win out.  Our final opponents are Voodoo, Gladiators, 'Cats, Storm and Shock.  Voodoo and Gladiators are the best bets.  Cats are a strong maybe, Storm's unlikely and the Shock ain't happening.  Best - absolute best - case, the power goes 4-1, though I'd expecct 2-3, and that won't be enough.

I don't want to be a Debbie Downer about the situation, but that's really what it comes down to - and it's not taking into consideration the Voodoo and Gladiators going on a tear...I mean, the Preds could just as easily fall apart.  I'm not putting money on either.  The simple fact is, the Power probably won't make the playoffs, but still have a chance of ending the year with a better record than last year.

Baby steps.

Elsewhere in the League

• Orlando at Jacksonville - as I said above, it's a rivalry game and it was a three-point game last time they met up.  I need to think positive and say that the Sharks will pull it off again.
• Philly at Cleveland - Philly's better on the road, and Cleveland's not good.
• Another division match-up, and it's between the Talons and Barnstormers.  The Barnstormers took the Talons at home last time, and they should be able to do it on their home turf as well.
• As far as I'm concerned, the GotW is once again featuring the Cats, even if it's not the TV game.  Last time the Cats and Blaze met up, San Jose won by a point.  Utah needs this win hard, but I'm still betting the Cats win the rematch.

Heading to the Jungle - Predators rematch

Okay, yeah...we lost last week.  Badly.  Definitively.  A division loss, no less.  But, strangely, it's not that important in the grand scheme of things.  We're playing for the 4th spot in the conference.  We're not going to get the division, so Philly getting farther out in front isn't going to make them win it any more than they already are.  The teams we have to be concerned with are Cleveland, New Orleans and Orlando - which makes this week's game somehow more important than our division game last week.

Right now, the series is tied between these two teams.  The Power swept them last season, but lost hard both in their first season and earlier this year.  The acquisition of Aaron Garcia was key in starting to turn Orlando around - but they're still down at the bottom of the pack with us.  Regardless, he's one of the best in the game, and the Power will be playing on his field.

His prime receiver is T.T. Toliver, but it's really a triple threat of Toliver, Prechae Rodriguez, and Jason Geathers, accounting for almost 50 TDs on the year between them.  Last time the two teams met up, the majority of the damage (yards-wise) was Toliver, and that's pretty standard fare for him.  Rodriguez put up 3 touchdowns, and Geathers generally just made plays when needed.  Marlon Moye-Moore is also a concern in the running game (but not nearly as much as "Boss" Ross last week.  Ugh.)

As with most weeks, turnovers were an issue last time the Preds/Power met up, and there is no reason to think that it won't happen again.  Dominic Jones is Orlando's player on defense and special teams, but that's not really important - our turnover issue is more of a failing on offense than it is a success for the opponent's defense.

It's an important game in Florida and all-but-a-must-win for the Power.  Tune in Saturday to see how it plays out.

Elsewhere in the League

• Utah came up big last week against Jacksonville in the Battle of Replacement QBs.  The decision to start Jason Boltus instead of Tommy Grady turned out to be the right one.  The question is, will it be the right call again this week in a big division match-up against the Shock?
• The two big things to consider in Saturday's match between the Soul and the Barnstormers are Iowa's defense and the Soul's habit of choking at home.  I think that those two things might spell a win for Iowa.
• With Bernard Morris on IR and newly acquired Kyle Rowley taking snaps, the Sharks have been on a two-game skid, but they're still at the top of their division.  With a game against Cleveland this weekend, they should return to their winning ways and help us out.
• Chicago and Tampa Bay are tied in the standings, and both coming off losses.  Tampa is still the better team, but the Rush needs the win to stay on top of their division.
• Likewise, the Talons need a win to catch up to the Rush.  New Orleans actually got win number three last week, so I for one, will be rooting for the Talons this week.
• Every now and again, the CBS game of the week gets it right:  The game between Arizona and San Jose should be the best game this week.  Normally, in a game as unpredictable as this, I'd take the home team...but I've also been predicting a Rattlers fall for weeks now.  So I just don't know.  Watch the game, it'll be fun.

Soul/Power Round Two

I'm strangely optimistic about this game.  Philly hasn't won a division game yet, we've beaten them, they've made some consistent mistakes, and we looked good last week.

First off, even though the Power lost in San Jose last week, it kind of felt like a win.  Cassidy took the snaps and looked confident the whole game.  In fact, in the last minute of the game, it was tied up.  Everything after that was a matter of risk/reward that didn't fall our way.  San Jose is one of the toughest teams in the league, and the Power hung in against them and played a good, clean game.

Philly, on the other hand, very nearly lost to New Orleans at home last week.  It was a sloppy, sloppy game where they never held a lead until almost the end.  Also, they continued messing up in a critical area they've repeated week after week: Blowing it in the fourth with stupid mistakes.  When the Power was out there, they were in the driver's seat until Dirty Dan threw a pick right at the end.  When the Rattlers were out there, they were looking good until Dirty Dan tried to throw it away between the wall and the iron...and had the ricochet picked.  This past week with NOLA, they actually had to burn their last time out or they would have lost by one point because the clock ran out!

I know, a Power fan ragging on a team for 4th quarter meltdowns is a bit hypocritical.  However, when the Power melts down in the fourth, it's generally because they gave up in the third.  Philly, on the other hand, lets sub-par teams hold in way longer than they should and/or make one truly stupid mistake late in the game that turns things around.

So we've got it made in the shade, right?

Well, no.  The first catch is that Philly tends to do these things to themselves at home, not on the road.  Secondly, they have a very solid team on paper - one that is pretty similar to the Arena Bowl team from last year.

As usual, Tiger Jones is going to be the aerial threat that we need to watch out for.  The most annoying part is, every time he scores, he'll do an obnoxious dance (that tends to be fun to watch...)  Also, we have to accept the fact that Derrick "the Boss" Ross is going to set an AFL record this week.  It's going to happen.  He's 7 yards shy of the all-time rushing record, and he can get that on one carry.  Philly is just about the only team in the league that actually plays a running game, and they play it a lot.  (Side note:  The record Ross is going to beat took Bo Kelly 12 years to set - and Ross has been in the league for three.  So, he's going to push it out of reach by the time he's done playing.)

One last player to note for this week is Ryan McDaniel.  In many ways, he reminds me of an evil Gary Butler.  He's Philly's big time hot-head.  He's been playing great on offense, but at the same time, he's drawn some big-time penalties because of his short fuse.  Here's where the Bully can come in - if Butler and McDaniel clash enough, they might get each other ejected, and that could be exactly what we need.  Regardless, getting him to lose his cool could be that 4th quarter screw-up for this week.

Elsewhere in the League

• First up is Cleveland at Orlando.  Really, this game can't work out badly for us - merely "good" and "better."  Obviously, we want Cleveland to lose, on principle and because they're in our division.  But, if they happen to win, Orlando losing is good as well.  Even if we lose, whichever of those teams win can only tie our record, and we have more division wins than Cleveland.  Right now, 4th place in the conference is a playoff spot, and we're still on pace for that.
• I don't have nearly as much to say about Tampa Bay at NOLA.  They're gonna beat the Voodoo, and that's good for us - the Voodoo is the other team we need to stay at a worse record than us to get into the playoffs.
• Likewise, San Jose shouldn't have much trouble against the Barnstormers.
• The match-up between Spokane and Arizona is being touted as a preview of the division championship.  It might be - regardless, it's going to be a great match-up.  I'm not going to feel comfortable until the Ratts lose again.  I mean, they can beat the Shock, but they've won 8 in a row and are still due for a stumble.
• The main thing San Antonio's meeting with the Chicago Rush has going for it is that it's a division match.  They're pretty evenly matched, and I'm going to give a slight edge to the Talons.
• I'm still baffled that Utah has had such a crappy season.  I honestly haven't watched enough of their games to really get a feel for why, but the fact is, things haven't gone their way.  Jacksonville, on the other hand, is in it to win it.

Power at Sabercats preview

Three things are true about last week:  We got our asses kicked, the Sabercats got their asses kicked, and both other teams in our division lost.  So, we're all starting from a blank slate this week.

That being said, the Sabercats are going to crush the Power on Saturday.  They're just too solid of a team to begin with, and they've gotten stronger in the second half of the season with the addition of Russ Michna at  quarterback.  As mentioned in past posts, the Cats had trouble with veteran QB Aaron Garcia, but when they swapped him out for Michna, everything gelled.

We will also get to see former Power receiver Jason "Watchu Talkin' Bout" Willis in action again...which isn't so hot in this situation.  He primarily headed out to San Jose to follow Garcia, but seems to like it out there.  The short version is - he's a scary, scary individual and their current top scorer.

What concerns me is their defense, which is second in the league. Last week, the Power hung in there the first half and kept it respectable, if not hopeful.  The announcers - who were super, pro-Jacksonville - spent the first half lamenting how lack-luster the Sharks were playing.  The second half was a different story.  The trademark Power Critical Turnover happened, and the wheels fell off.  That one magic turnover that causes more to follow until the team is just trying to get the game over with.

Against a normal team, this is bad.  Against a team that plays as dirty as the Sabercats, this could, and would, be disastrous.


Elsewhere in the League

• First up is Iowa at Cleveland.  Both teams are at the bottom of their divisions and on a three-game slide, badly in need of a win.  Iowa is the slightly better bet here.
• NOLA at Soul.  Philly can take the Voodoo without much difficulty, but I'm hoping for an upset!
• The Blaze continues to struggle and I think that the Rush, who continue to heat up, have a good shot at beating them
• Arizona travels to Texas to play the Talons this weekend.  As powerful as the Ratts continue to be with only one loss on the season, I can't help but think that a stumble is coming at some point.
• Spokane and Jacksonville are too evenly matched to call.  Both whooped the crap out of their opponents last week (Sabercats and Power, respectively) and have tied records.  When in doubt, take the home team, which in this case is Spokane.