Before the season started, I had this game penciled in as a win. The Jets were in shambles, they were starting a rookie at quarterback, Mark Sanchez was a huge distraction, and Rex Ryan looked like he was trying to get fired. As things stand now, I have a feeling that the New York Jets are looking at the Steelers and thinking, "Man, that team has some serious issues."
The defense can't tackle or make any big plays, the offensive line is in disarray, they just traded for a left tackle that the Arizona Cardinals were willing to pay $3 million to get rid of, there's some kind of issue with ping pong that I don't quite understand, the offensive coordinator is a colossal douche, they're 0-4, and Ryan Clark and Ben Roethlisberger have a mini-feud going. All that I honestly feel as though I'm forgetting something.
I had hoped that the bye week would give them a chance to sort a few things out and get a little bit more stable on all fronts, but the opposite seems to have happened. They appear to have gone further off the rails and I'm not sure how much further they're going to get off course. I would say that I don't think it's possible for things to get worse, but I thought that heading into the bye week... and they got worse.
I think that the defense will play better than they've shown the past two games. I think that they'll eventually register a sack and force a turnover. I think they won't give up a kajillion yards rushing and 34 points against New York.
I think that the offensive line will be in better shape with Mike Adams out of there and Kelvin Beacham or Levi Brown in. I think the receivers will continue to improve and mature and that the pass offense has the potential to be pretty explosive by the end of the season.
But, this is still a flawed team that has major talent holes at a number of positions. Demoting Ziggy Hood and Mike Adams sends a message and their replacements will be better, but it's doubtful that they'll be considerably better, or at least good enough that right end and left tackle won't be areas of weakness. Getting Le'Veon Bell and Heath back will help boost the offense and give Ben Roethlisberger and Todd Haley more options.
The issue is that all of these things are like having a kid to save a bad marriage: The dynamic changes, but the old problems are still there. In order to salvage the season and take big steps forward, they need to fundamentally change how they approach things.
They need to max protect more, take more shots down the field, and run more when they get into the red zone. They need to blitz more, play more man coverage, and take more chances on defense. They had been playing it safe thus far, only going all out -- at least on offense -- when they felt they had no other choice. They assumed that they had the talent and football savvy to win enough games to at least be competitive, but they overestimated the talent on hand by a lot and weren't anywhere near as savvy as they thought.
They're a quarter of the way through the season and doing things the same way they've always done them isn't working. They need to step outside their comfort zone, take some chances, and basically go big or go home. I have no idea if they'll succeed or not if they take that chance, but they haven't won any games playing it safe, so it's worth a shot.
Sure, the Jets have a rookie quarterback, a ton of injuries on offense, and they traded their best defensive player in the offseason. They're also 3-2, they're at home, they know who they are, and they know how to get where they want to go. They may be a mess, but they're not as big a mess as the Steelers right now.
Prediction:
Jets 17, Steelers 16
Friday, October 11, 2013
Thursday, October 03, 2013
Buctober: NLDS Preview
First off, let me say that Tuesday's Wild Card was an amazing game. The fans were insane, the players fed off that energy, and the Pirates took care of business. To some degree, the Reds choked, but the Pirates also dismantled Cincy and every key moment in the game swung in the Buccos favor.
If they can play like that the rest of the way, they'll not only win this series, they'll win it all.
Trouble is, I don't think that they can sustain what they did on Tuesday night.
St. Louis is more consistent and balanced. They finished 3rd in runs scored, 4th in batting average, 3rd in on-base percentage, and 12th in slugging. They were also 5th in ERA and 8th in WHIP, and were in the top 15 in pretty much every other pitching category. They're not a team that needs to score a bunch of runs to win, but they're a team that can win a slugfest. They can also win tight, low-scoring games. They play exceptionally well at home and they get 3 out of 5 games at Busch Stadium.
They have a ton of players on the roster with extensive postseason experience. Talent usually trumps experience, as the Pirates proved on Tuesday night, but the Cardinals have more talent and more experience.
I don't think that the Wild Card game hurt the Pirates at all. If anything, it gave them the confidence and the experience they didn't have previously. Francisco Liriano will still get to pitch in the first three games -- Game 3 at PNC Park and he's much tougher at home than on the road -- and a starting threesome of AJ Burnett, Gerrit Cole, and Liriano is still very formidable. Maybe Burnett versus Wainwright today favors the Cardinals, but the pitchers don't go against each other. They go against the batters for the other team. As long as the Buccos do a better job of scoring runs against Wainwright than St. Louis does against Burnett, then AJ and the Pirates will win. The bullpen was barely touched on Tuesday, Mark Melacon didn't have to pitch, and Jason Grilli has two days rest.
The 4 seed vs. 1 seed matchup only concerns me in that the Pirates need to play three road games in a five games series, but they would've needed to play three road games regardless of who they drew.
I just think this Cardinals team is a bad matchup for them, despite the fact that the Pirates won the season series 10-9. They won most of those games at home and four of those wins came in a five game series at the end of July at PNC. If the Buccos had three home games and started off the series with two games in Pittsburgh, I'd pick them. This is a really close series, the games should be tight, and it's entirely possible that the Pirates could pull it off.
As a lifetime Pirate fan, I've spent my time hoping for the best, but expecting the worst. It could be that's clouding my mindset and opinion now, because there's something knawing at me that says the Buccos hold the advantage in terms of talent, pitching, and matchups and have enough of an advantage to overcome the fact that St. Louis has homefield.
If they can split the first two games in St. Louis, then they have a real shot. If they can't split those games -- I think they lost both of them -- then the Cardinals can split the next two games in Pittsburgh. If they split in St. Louis, then it's very possible that they could use that momentum to close out things at home.
I don't think it'll happen that way, so I'm going to go Cardinals in 4.
HOWEVER, if the Buccos do happen to beat the Cardinals, I like their chances to advance to the World Series. I think that they have the pitching depth and building confidence to take on the Braves or Dodgers. I will be rooting for them to take this series and advance to the NLCS (then the World Series!), but expecting them to fall flat on their face in Missouri.
BONUS COVERAGE:
My buddy Keith, who knows everything about baseball, completely disagrees with me. I asked him for his prediction (without first telling him that I was going to try and quote him on it) and he had this to say:
"The Cardinals offense is not intimidating without Allen Craig, particularly since the only reason they won the division was an absurd team performance with RISP. Plus, the Pirates all believe that they are a part of something special while this is just another postseason for the Cards.
The Braves are virtually unbeatable at home for some reason. The Dodgers have won 60 of their last 90 games. Both teams have absolute shutdown closers. LA wields the extra threat of Clayton Kershaw, but the Pirates have handled Zack Greinke pretty well over the years. I think whoever wins the Atl/LA series wins the NL."
So, I'm hoping for the best, that Keith is right. Like he usually is.
If they can play like that the rest of the way, they'll not only win this series, they'll win it all.
Trouble is, I don't think that they can sustain what they did on Tuesday night.
St. Louis is more consistent and balanced. They finished 3rd in runs scored, 4th in batting average, 3rd in on-base percentage, and 12th in slugging. They were also 5th in ERA and 8th in WHIP, and were in the top 15 in pretty much every other pitching category. They're not a team that needs to score a bunch of runs to win, but they're a team that can win a slugfest. They can also win tight, low-scoring games. They play exceptionally well at home and they get 3 out of 5 games at Busch Stadium.
They have a ton of players on the roster with extensive postseason experience. Talent usually trumps experience, as the Pirates proved on Tuesday night, but the Cardinals have more talent and more experience.
I don't think that the Wild Card game hurt the Pirates at all. If anything, it gave them the confidence and the experience they didn't have previously. Francisco Liriano will still get to pitch in the first three games -- Game 3 at PNC Park and he's much tougher at home than on the road -- and a starting threesome of AJ Burnett, Gerrit Cole, and Liriano is still very formidable. Maybe Burnett versus Wainwright today favors the Cardinals, but the pitchers don't go against each other. They go against the batters for the other team. As long as the Buccos do a better job of scoring runs against Wainwright than St. Louis does against Burnett, then AJ and the Pirates will win. The bullpen was barely touched on Tuesday, Mark Melacon didn't have to pitch, and Jason Grilli has two days rest.
The 4 seed vs. 1 seed matchup only concerns me in that the Pirates need to play three road games in a five games series, but they would've needed to play three road games regardless of who they drew.
I just think this Cardinals team is a bad matchup for them, despite the fact that the Pirates won the season series 10-9. They won most of those games at home and four of those wins came in a five game series at the end of July at PNC. If the Buccos had three home games and started off the series with two games in Pittsburgh, I'd pick them. This is a really close series, the games should be tight, and it's entirely possible that the Pirates could pull it off.
As a lifetime Pirate fan, I've spent my time hoping for the best, but expecting the worst. It could be that's clouding my mindset and opinion now, because there's something knawing at me that says the Buccos hold the advantage in terms of talent, pitching, and matchups and have enough of an advantage to overcome the fact that St. Louis has homefield.
If they can split the first two games in St. Louis, then they have a real shot. If they can't split those games -- I think they lost both of them -- then the Cardinals can split the next two games in Pittsburgh. If they split in St. Louis, then it's very possible that they could use that momentum to close out things at home.
I don't think it'll happen that way, so I'm going to go Cardinals in 4.
HOWEVER, if the Buccos do happen to beat the Cardinals, I like their chances to advance to the World Series. I think that they have the pitching depth and building confidence to take on the Braves or Dodgers. I will be rooting for them to take this series and advance to the NLCS (then the World Series!), but expecting them to fall flat on their face in Missouri.
BONUS COVERAGE:
My buddy Keith, who knows everything about baseball, completely disagrees with me. I asked him for his prediction (without first telling him that I was going to try and quote him on it) and he had this to say:
"The Cardinals offense is not intimidating without Allen Craig, particularly since the only reason they won the division was an absurd team performance with RISP. Plus, the Pirates all believe that they are a part of something special while this is just another postseason for the Cards.
The Braves are virtually unbeatable at home for some reason. The Dodgers have won 60 of their last 90 games. Both teams have absolute shutdown closers. LA wields the extra threat of Clayton Kershaw, but the Pirates have handled Zack Greinke pretty well over the years. I think whoever wins the Atl/LA series wins the NL."
So, I'm hoping for the best, that Keith is right. Like he usually is.
Friday, September 20, 2013
Heisenberged: Bears at Steelers Preview
OK, here's the thing: I'm 95% sure I'm going to watch Breaking Bad at 9 p.m. on Sunday instead of watching the Steeler game. I'll most likely record the game and watch that hour of it later -- with the bonus of avoiding the 15 or so commercial breaks that NBC is probably going to jam into the first half, while the game is still competitive -- but I think I've convinced myself that watching Breaking Bad is a better use of my time. I know that I'm going to enjoy it, that I'm going to be entertained, and that, with all the updates and spoilers I'm going to see on the Internet, it makes more sense to watch it live rather than recording it and watching it later. I don't want to slog through an hour, bored out of my mind, only watching because of a sense of obligation, because I've invested so much time already. If I wanted to spend an hour that way, I'd just watch Dexter.
I'm being melodramatic and I'm exaggerating, but not by a whole lot. I know that Breaking Bad will deliver the goods and I can't say the same about the Steelers.
After they opened the season 0-2, there was a quick flurry of, "They opened the season 0-2 in 2002 and won the division that year!" observations, but then everyone realized that this team is different than that 2002 team. That team opened against the Patriots and the Raiders (remember that's the year the Raiders went to the Super Bowl, so this was before they sucked). New England was defending its title. That was a deeper Steeler team, a more talented team, and a squad that just happened to draw the two best teams in the AFC in their first two games.
The 2013 Steelers may actually be good, I'm still not sure, but they certainly have a confidence problem. The offensive line lacks confidence -- they're not sure how good they are, there's real anxiety about everyone getting hurt, and they haven't been together long enough to be confident in each other. Solid offensive line play is equal parts talent, rote, and determination. There's plenty of athletic talent on this line, but they haven't played and practiced together much, so the familiarity isn't there. Determination is having the confidence to try to do something and the tenacity to see it through. If they don't have confidence, they can't see it through. That's where it all starts and it trickles down from there.
The coaches don't think the line can pass protect for more than a couple of seconds, so they're calling safer, shorter plays. I'm not a huge fan of Todd Haley, but I don't think you can pin this on him. If he calls too many aggressive pass plays that call for long dropbacks, he exposes Ben Roethlisberger to injury. If Roethlisberger gets hurt, then the season is sunk for sure. Haley doesn't have Mike Wallace to take the top off the defense. He doesn't have a back that he trusts to hold onto the ball. They don't have any explosive players and they're not making any explosive plays. If they start to trust the offensive line, if they start to make some big plays, they'll gain some confidence. Confidence is contagious. The trouble is that I don't see enough guys on this roster to foster that kind of confidence and make those kinds of plays. I don't think that getting Heath Miller and Le'Veon Bell fixes that. I think they just need to take baby steps until they can walk. That might not happen this season.
The defensive is playing it safe and there are two explosive playmakers on that side of the ball: Troy Polamalu and Jarvis Jones. Jones is going to be an amazing player, but he's still young and raw. Troy, as much as I love him and think he's a great player, will get hurt by Week 6. If he doesn't get hurt and Jones makes serious strides, then they've got a little bit of something going on defense. But, they still don't have enough. They need to start piling up sacks and forcing turnovers, making big plays on defense. Right now, they're playing it safe. They're playing not to lose. Again, this isn't something I blame the coordinator for, as if I could ever say anything bad about Dick LeBeau. These are just the circumstances they're operating under with the players they have, at the development levels they have them.
These guys will get better, they will gain confidence, they will come together, they will make plays. I just think the 2013 version of this team is a lot like the 2003 version of this team. Both seasons had similar vibes to them. Both teams had issues on the offensive line (remember that Alan Faneca played left tackle for a few games). They needed to develop and gain confidence.
Bad news: That 2003 team finished 6-10. Good news: With basically the same personnel (plus a rookie phenom named Ben Roethlisberger), they went 15-1 in 2004.
Now, for the bad news for Sunday: The Bears are already a developed team that is playing as well as they can play. They're 2-0 and looking to build on recent successes. The Steelers are 0-2 and looking to avoid recent failures.
I hope the Steelers are going to be in the lead (or at least keeping the game competitive) when I switch over from Breaking Bad at 10 p.m. on Sunday, but I doubt it.
Prediction:
Bears 24, Steelers 13
I'm being melodramatic and I'm exaggerating, but not by a whole lot. I know that Breaking Bad will deliver the goods and I can't say the same about the Steelers.
After they opened the season 0-2, there was a quick flurry of, "They opened the season 0-2 in 2002 and won the division that year!" observations, but then everyone realized that this team is different than that 2002 team. That team opened against the Patriots and the Raiders (remember that's the year the Raiders went to the Super Bowl, so this was before they sucked). New England was defending its title. That was a deeper Steeler team, a more talented team, and a squad that just happened to draw the two best teams in the AFC in their first two games.
The 2013 Steelers may actually be good, I'm still not sure, but they certainly have a confidence problem. The offensive line lacks confidence -- they're not sure how good they are, there's real anxiety about everyone getting hurt, and they haven't been together long enough to be confident in each other. Solid offensive line play is equal parts talent, rote, and determination. There's plenty of athletic talent on this line, but they haven't played and practiced together much, so the familiarity isn't there. Determination is having the confidence to try to do something and the tenacity to see it through. If they don't have confidence, they can't see it through. That's where it all starts and it trickles down from there.
The coaches don't think the line can pass protect for more than a couple of seconds, so they're calling safer, shorter plays. I'm not a huge fan of Todd Haley, but I don't think you can pin this on him. If he calls too many aggressive pass plays that call for long dropbacks, he exposes Ben Roethlisberger to injury. If Roethlisberger gets hurt, then the season is sunk for sure. Haley doesn't have Mike Wallace to take the top off the defense. He doesn't have a back that he trusts to hold onto the ball. They don't have any explosive players and they're not making any explosive plays. If they start to trust the offensive line, if they start to make some big plays, they'll gain some confidence. Confidence is contagious. The trouble is that I don't see enough guys on this roster to foster that kind of confidence and make those kinds of plays. I don't think that getting Heath Miller and Le'Veon Bell fixes that. I think they just need to take baby steps until they can walk. That might not happen this season.
The defensive is playing it safe and there are two explosive playmakers on that side of the ball: Troy Polamalu and Jarvis Jones. Jones is going to be an amazing player, but he's still young and raw. Troy, as much as I love him and think he's a great player, will get hurt by Week 6. If he doesn't get hurt and Jones makes serious strides, then they've got a little bit of something going on defense. But, they still don't have enough. They need to start piling up sacks and forcing turnovers, making big plays on defense. Right now, they're playing it safe. They're playing not to lose. Again, this isn't something I blame the coordinator for, as if I could ever say anything bad about Dick LeBeau. These are just the circumstances they're operating under with the players they have, at the development levels they have them.
These guys will get better, they will gain confidence, they will come together, they will make plays. I just think the 2013 version of this team is a lot like the 2003 version of this team. Both seasons had similar vibes to them. Both teams had issues on the offensive line (remember that Alan Faneca played left tackle for a few games). They needed to develop and gain confidence.
Bad news: That 2003 team finished 6-10. Good news: With basically the same personnel (plus a rookie phenom named Ben Roethlisberger), they went 15-1 in 2004.
Now, for the bad news for Sunday: The Bears are already a developed team that is playing as well as they can play. They're 2-0 and looking to build on recent successes. The Steelers are 0-2 and looking to avoid recent failures.
I hope the Steelers are going to be in the lead (or at least keeping the game competitive) when I switch over from Breaking Bad at 10 p.m. on Sunday, but I doubt it.
Prediction:
Bears 24, Steelers 13
Friday, September 06, 2013
Remember the Titans... Suck: Titans at Steelers Preview
Holy crap. There hasn't been a post on the ol' SteelersNAt blog since August 15th. I would've thought August 26th, but what do I know.
Looks like football season is upon us and the Steelers host the Tennessee Titans on Sunday at 1 p.m. at Heinz Field.
I mentioned during the preseason that I didn't have high hopes for the Steelers this season; I just don't want them to be boring like they were last season. They finished 8-8, which is kind of like kissing your sister. But, the average score in those games was 21-19 and there were a number of turnover-riddled snoozefests that ended 16-14 or 13-10 or 20-14. So, last year was kind of like watching your sister kiss all your uncles on the cheek. Which... I guess means I'd like to watch my sister make out with random dudes this season. And that doesn't make any sense.
What I'd like to see is exciting games with big plays -- even if it means poor tackling and poor coverage -- and a finish within one game of 8-8 (7-9, 8-8, or 9-7, doesn't really matter). I think that Sunday's game has a high potential to kick off the season right, with lots of scoring, defensive breakdowns, offensive breakdowns, and crazy plays.
Consider:
Looks like football season is upon us and the Steelers host the Tennessee Titans on Sunday at 1 p.m. at Heinz Field.
I mentioned during the preseason that I didn't have high hopes for the Steelers this season; I just don't want them to be boring like they were last season. They finished 8-8, which is kind of like kissing your sister. But, the average score in those games was 21-19 and there were a number of turnover-riddled snoozefests that ended 16-14 or 13-10 or 20-14. So, last year was kind of like watching your sister kiss all your uncles on the cheek. Which... I guess means I'd like to watch my sister make out with random dudes this season. And that doesn't make any sense.
What I'd like to see is exciting games with big plays -- even if it means poor tackling and poor coverage -- and a finish within one game of 8-8 (7-9, 8-8, or 9-7, doesn't really matter). I think that Sunday's game has a high potential to kick off the season right, with lots of scoring, defensive breakdowns, offensive breakdowns, and crazy plays.
Consider:
- Chris Johnson can break a big play at any time.
- Kenny Britt had his first big game against the Steelers and Nate Washington has big play potential (or at least he did at one point and maybe he's still mad that he doesn't play for Pittsburgh anymore).
- The Titans defense is young and opportunistic. Better yet, they're young, inexperienced, and undisciplined, so maybe the cornerbacks will jump routes and miss, allowing a big play on the back end. Maybe they'll jump routes and hit, making a big play.
- Ben Roethlisberger is quirky and unpredictable. If they start to struggle running the ball early on -- and they probably will -- then Roethlisberger might decide to let it rip.
- This year's defense can't possibly be worse at forcing turnovers than last year's... can it?
On the other side of all this is the fact that neither team's offensive line looks like it's all the way together yet. That's a wild card in that it could lead to a lot of big plays -- strip-sacks and whatnot -- or it could lead to a lot of futility and three-and-outs.
The good news is that Tennessee doesn't have a very good team and they're in Year Two of a pretty painful four year rebuilding process. They may be competitive and dangerous eventually, but not now. Their front seven has been repeatedly gutted by free agency and Bernard Pollard might be their best player in the secondary. On offense, Jake Locker is a great athlete, but he's a terrible quarterback. The Steelers tend to feast on terrible quarterbacks. Despite the nice things I said about Britt and Washington, those guys are a couple of oft-injured, wildly inconsistent "upside guys" that keep getting chances because someone is dumb enough to believe that they'll put it all together eventually if they just get enough chances.
Chris Johnson is the guy to fear, even if he's been underwhelming the past two or three seasons. He's still explosive, still super fast, and can still break off a long touchdown at any moment. The Titans are going to feed him the ball because they have no other real option. If he gets enough chances, he'll break a big gain eventually. The Steelers just need to stay focused, maintain their lanes on defense, and practice sound tackling fundamentals.
The Steelers are an average team, but the Titans are a bad team. The fact that Roethlisberger is one of the seven or eight best quarterbacks in the league lifts the Steelers from being below average to just average. If they can't beat Tennessee, then they are a bad team (I don't care if the Titans finish with a winning record, bad teams can get lucky as these same Titans did in 2011).
In order to not embarrass themselves, the Steelers need to win this game. If they can get off to a winning start, they'll enter next week with more confidence -- and they'll need all the help they can get against the Bengals. If they lose this week, they could very well open up the season 0-3. If they split their non-division conference games (home against the Titans, at Miami), go 3-1 against the atrocious AFC East (yes, this means they're going to lose at home to the Patriots; I've accepted it, the sooner you do the better for your sanity), split their division games, and split with their non-conference games (a pretty up-in-the-air NFC North), then they're looking at a 9-7 season.
Maybe they catch some breaks, beat the Dolphins and go 4-2 in the division, that puts them at 11-5.
The X-Factor this season is the guys they've drafted since 2010. There are only four guys on the roster from the 2006-2009 draft classes -- Woodley, Timmons, Ziggy Hood, and David Johnson. There are five players still on the roster from the 2002-2005 draft classes -- Ben, Troy, Keisel, Ike Taylor, and Heath. With no young veterans stepping up -- and the guys from those 2006-2009 classes should all be playing vital roles on the team, making up the core group of talented skill position players -- they have a bunch of old guys that need to keep playing at a high level and really young guys that need to grow up in a hurry. Assuming that the old guard doesn't fall apart this season -- and, aside from Troy missing at least 5-6 games every season with various injuries, it doesn't look like they will fall apart -- then it's up to the 2010-Present draft classes to make up that talent gap and deliver.
If they can deliver in a big way, then you're looking at a 12-4 or 13-3 season. I don't think they're all going to deliver in a big way. I think some of them will make a big leap forward, some of them will be average, and some of them will fall off. When that happens, you're looking at 8-8 or 7-9 or 9-7. If injuries keep mounting and the depth of this team is really tested, then it's a 6-10 or 5-11 situation, but I don't think that's going to happen.
They're an average team and they're going to finish with an average record. They'll do slightly better or worse depending on luck. I've seen so many successful seasons in the last decade or so that I really don't care how well (or not) they do during the regular season. I believe that there's a big enough talent gap between them and the favorites from the AFC that I know they won't advance to (and win) the Super Bowl. If they're not going to win the Super Bowl and are probably going to be average, I just don't want to be bored when it's happening.
It all starts on Sunday against the Tennessee Titans and, the good lord willing, it will be exciting.
Thursday, August 15, 2013
ArenaBowl XXVI Preview
Wow...and just like that, we're back to Arena Bowl time again. That means the end of Arena season for another year, and the beginning of the NFL. But, not to get ahead of things - there's still an Arena Bowl to enjoy. This year, there will be an extra bonus to the coverage - and that's the fact that Keller and I are actually going to be at the game.
It was all a random series of events that included me saying, "Dude...we should just drive down to Orlando. <ha-ha>" and Keller saying, "<lol> Yeah, we should."
Then we discovered that pretty much the same seats we have at Consol were available for this game and we called each other's bluff. So...we're going. The only thing more exciting is the fact that the match-up is between two teams we actually give a shit about: Our division rival Philadelphia Soul and a team called the Arizona Rattlers (I might have mentioned that I'm a fan.)
The astute among you may notice that these are the same two teams that met up last year - and this is the first time that has ever happened. So, what should we expect this time around? Well, last year, the Rattlers came into the Arena Bowl after being narrowly beaten by the Sharks the year before, and the Soul came in with only one or two players who had ever been to the big show before. The Ratts owned the field from the word go, Dan Raudabaugh looked like a dear in headlights, and Brackins got shut down. By the end of the night, Arizona routed the Soul, and their media guys quickly began to regret starting this crap before the playoffs started.
This season, the Rattlers have owned the Soul, beating them in both meetings. The Latin Laser, Nick Davila, has been money, Odie Armstrong has been rumbling into the end zone, guys like Poots are making plays, and their defense has been solid. The only team to really threaten them was the Shock, and they put that threat to bed last week...but I'm not as confident as I should be.
First of all, the Soul got brought to Jesus last year, and I think they got woken up. They know what they're in for and they're ready for the bright lights. If Dirty Dan was going to get the yips, he might have gotten that out of his system a few weeks ago when he threw 5 interceptions in one game. I just see them being a stronger team this time around. But, it's not just them I'm worried about.
The Rattlers might be the ones getting cocky this year. It's their third Arena Bowl in a row, they've already beaten the Soul twice this season, and they pasted them last year. Also, they've been held up as the league's golden children all season (there was some unfounded sour grapes rumors that the league was intentionally trying to force a dynasty) and have been basically made out to not be able to lose. Well...they can.
Aside from the fact that it is very hard to beat a team three times in a season - in this league or the outdoor one - there's also the concern behind center. Last week, Davila took a pretty vicious hit to his throwing arm - the same arm he had surgery on during the off season. After that, you could see that every throw was agony. I haven't seen any word as to how bad it was or even if it's still an issue - but I know that the Rattlers are going to start him, no matter what. If it's not 100%, that's a huge loss. Even if it's functionally 100%, it's a weak point that could get injured again during the game.
I also have concerns given the fact that Boss Ross has been near-unstoppable this year (which isn't to say that AZ's Armstrong hasn't been - he just hasn't put up nearly the same numbers) and Brackins has been returning to form. Also, Philly didn't have Tiger last year. Although he was all but shut down last week, this is the stage that dancing fool was made for.
The bottom line is that the Rattlers should win this one, but their worst enemy is themselves. If they come in like they're owed a victory, they will lose. If Davila's arm gives out, they will probably lose. But if they bear down, focus and play it like any other week, they can win.
Plus, Philly pulled out this crap right before the playoffs.
Stay tuned for after this weekend, when Keller and I will post a follow-up with our experiences and pictures. Plus, look for us on TV - we'll be the idiots wearing our Power jerseys five rows up from the field.
It was all a random series of events that included me saying, "Dude...we should just drive down to Orlando. <ha-ha>" and Keller saying, "<lol> Yeah, we should."
Then we discovered that pretty much the same seats we have at Consol were available for this game and we called each other's bluff. So...we're going. The only thing more exciting is the fact that the match-up is between two teams we actually give a shit about: Our division rival Philadelphia Soul and a team called the Arizona Rattlers (I might have mentioned that I'm a fan.)
The astute among you may notice that these are the same two teams that met up last year - and this is the first time that has ever happened. So, what should we expect this time around? Well, last year, the Rattlers came into the Arena Bowl after being narrowly beaten by the Sharks the year before, and the Soul came in with only one or two players who had ever been to the big show before. The Ratts owned the field from the word go, Dan Raudabaugh looked like a dear in headlights, and Brackins got shut down. By the end of the night, Arizona routed the Soul, and their media guys quickly began to regret starting this crap before the playoffs started.
This season, the Rattlers have owned the Soul, beating them in both meetings. The Latin Laser, Nick Davila, has been money, Odie Armstrong has been rumbling into the end zone, guys like Poots are making plays, and their defense has been solid. The only team to really threaten them was the Shock, and they put that threat to bed last week...but I'm not as confident as I should be.
First of all, the Soul got brought to Jesus last year, and I think they got woken up. They know what they're in for and they're ready for the bright lights. If Dirty Dan was going to get the yips, he might have gotten that out of his system a few weeks ago when he threw 5 interceptions in one game. I just see them being a stronger team this time around. But, it's not just them I'm worried about.
The Rattlers might be the ones getting cocky this year. It's their third Arena Bowl in a row, they've already beaten the Soul twice this season, and they pasted them last year. Also, they've been held up as the league's golden children all season (there was some unfounded sour grapes rumors that the league was intentionally trying to force a dynasty) and have been basically made out to not be able to lose. Well...they can.
Aside from the fact that it is very hard to beat a team three times in a season - in this league or the outdoor one - there's also the concern behind center. Last week, Davila took a pretty vicious hit to his throwing arm - the same arm he had surgery on during the off season. After that, you could see that every throw was agony. I haven't seen any word as to how bad it was or even if it's still an issue - but I know that the Rattlers are going to start him, no matter what. If it's not 100%, that's a huge loss. Even if it's functionally 100%, it's a weak point that could get injured again during the game.
I also have concerns given the fact that Boss Ross has been near-unstoppable this year (which isn't to say that AZ's Armstrong hasn't been - he just hasn't put up nearly the same numbers) and Brackins has been returning to form. Also, Philly didn't have Tiger last year. Although he was all but shut down last week, this is the stage that dancing fool was made for.
The bottom line is that the Rattlers should win this one, but their worst enemy is themselves. If they come in like they're owed a victory, they will lose. If Davila's arm gives out, they will probably lose. But if they bear down, focus and play it like any other week, they can win.
Plus, Philly pulled out this crap right before the playoffs.
Stay tuned for after this weekend, when Keller and I will post a follow-up with our experiences and pictures. Plus, look for us on TV - we'll be the idiots wearing our Power jerseys five rows up from the field.
Saturday, August 10, 2013
Preseason Watchlist: Steelers vs. Giants
I have to say that the preseason snuck up on me this year. I could've sworn that the draft just happened, then suddenly I turn around and Training Camp is opening.
Here's what I'm going to be watching for tonight, since it doesn't make sense to put much stock in who wins and loses. It's only the preseason, but there are some interesting things to watch.
Zone Blocking Scheme:
They're implementing a new blocking scheme this year and it's a zone blocking scheme instead of the traditional "everyone has a guy they're assigned to block" scheme that they've used since The Chief bought the team.
It's a change in strategy, but the word on the street is that it's not Todd Haley's idea/fault. The Steelers wanted to move to this kind of blocking scheme since 2011, but they didn't have the athletes at tackle to pull it off.
This is just for the running game, not the passing game. The idea is that, unlike a man blocking scheme, where you "put a hat on a hat" and everyone blocks their assigned guy, each lineman is responsible for a zone and needs to block anyone that is in that zone/comes into that zone. The tackles push to the sidelines and interior linemen push towards the middle of the field. In theory, that creates seams and cut-back lanes in the defense that the running backs will then be able to run through.
Honestly, I don't think we have the athletes at running back to pull this off, but I am willing to try anything that will improve the running game. In this blocking scheme, the running back needs to have great short area quickness to burst through the seams and cut-back lanes, excellent vision to see those openings develop, and good decision-making ability (or at least the ability to make quick decisions and commit to them) so that he hits the hole before it closes. No one on the roster in 2012 fits that bill, with the possible exception of Rashard Mendenhall. He might have been a good fit, but he's now in Arizona. Word is that Le'Veon Bell has the right kind of skillset to run behind this scheme and be successful, so that's another thing to watch.
The Rookies:
Really, there are two rookie classes to evaluate in this game, since DeCastro and Adams were hurt most of last season, third round pick Sean Spence missed all of last season on injured reserve, and Alameda Ta'amu went on a drunken rampage through South Side, which hurt his chances to crack the line-up.
Adams and DeCastro will be in starting roles and it'll be nice to see them in action, along with the fact that they'll be working in the new zone blocking scheme. Spence and Ta'amu will be playing more, because they're lower on the depth chart, but they're both playing positions -- Spence at inside linebacker and Ta'amu at defensive tackle -- where there isn't an entrenched, established guy. If they play well, they could unseat the guy in front of them on the depth chart, which is always interesting to watch.
I mentioned Bell, who has apparently had a great camp. Jarvis Jones has also done extremely well by all accounts and I'm most excited to see him play. I really need to see him step into the void that James Harrison left behind, especially since I don't trust Jason Worilds any farther than I can throw him.
Since all the cornerbacks on the roster are working through some type of injury, Shamarko Thomas will be playing nickel back with the first team defense tonight. I'm really looking forward to seeing him play. His natural position is safety, but if he can also help out as a nickel cornerback, then that's another thing he can do to help this team. Ryan Clark and Troy aren't getting any younger, Ryan Mundy will be on the other team's sideline, and it would be super nice if this kid stepped up and started playing well from the get-go.
Rookie receivers Justin Brown and Markus Wheaton should get a lot of work, since there are now open spots at 4th and 5th receiver after the Plaxico Burress injury. There are actually a lot of warm bodies at the position -- there are 11 guys in total, counting Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, Jerricho Cotchery, and Plax, who probably won't have to fight for their roster spots -- and I'm hoping that this fosters competition for remaining roster spots. The more tough decisions these young guys can make the coaches make, the better the depth at the position.
Explosive Plays:
The Steelers were a really, really boring team last year. They didn't generate a lot of explosive plays on offense and they played things ultra-conservative on defense. Dick LeBeau knew that he didn't have the personnel to take a lot of chances and try to make a lot of splash plays, so he tried to teach the guys on defense to keep everything in front of them and not be a hero. The result was that they didn't allow a lot of 20+, 30+, or 40+ yard plays, but they also didn't record a lot of sacks or force very many turnovers.
On offense, they were hesitant to stretch the field and go for the big play and their running backs were mostly "two yards and a cloud of dust" guys that didn't get yards in chunks.
You ended up with an 8-8 team that played vanilla games that didn't feature many big plays on offense or defense, not a lot of sacks or turnovers, and a lot of low-scoring slugfests. The 2009 Steelers finished 8-8, but at least they were exciting. They forced turnovers like crazy, turned the ball over like crazy, and big plays were all over the place. Another team like that may kill me, but it's a chance I'm wiling to take.
At this point, I suspect that the 2013 Steelers will finish anywhere from 6-10 to 8-8 and I'm prepared for that. I just don't want it to be boring.
What I'm looking for tonight is whether or not the young kids have the swagger and the skill to go out and try and make something happen. They may let up some big plays, they may make some big plays, but in the end what I'm looking for is something interesting and exciting. With the number of players that are going to either retire or get cut in the next couple of seasons, I want to see what this next generation is made of.
No Injuries:
Just wanted to make sure I said it. As long as we make it through tonight without anyone getting seriously hurt, that's a net win.
Here's what I'm going to be watching for tonight, since it doesn't make sense to put much stock in who wins and loses. It's only the preseason, but there are some interesting things to watch.
Zone Blocking Scheme:
They're implementing a new blocking scheme this year and it's a zone blocking scheme instead of the traditional "everyone has a guy they're assigned to block" scheme that they've used since The Chief bought the team.
It's a change in strategy, but the word on the street is that it's not Todd Haley's idea/fault. The Steelers wanted to move to this kind of blocking scheme since 2011, but they didn't have the athletes at tackle to pull it off.
This is just for the running game, not the passing game. The idea is that, unlike a man blocking scheme, where you "put a hat on a hat" and everyone blocks their assigned guy, each lineman is responsible for a zone and needs to block anyone that is in that zone/comes into that zone. The tackles push to the sidelines and interior linemen push towards the middle of the field. In theory, that creates seams and cut-back lanes in the defense that the running backs will then be able to run through.
Honestly, I don't think we have the athletes at running back to pull this off, but I am willing to try anything that will improve the running game. In this blocking scheme, the running back needs to have great short area quickness to burst through the seams and cut-back lanes, excellent vision to see those openings develop, and good decision-making ability (or at least the ability to make quick decisions and commit to them) so that he hits the hole before it closes. No one on the roster in 2012 fits that bill, with the possible exception of Rashard Mendenhall. He might have been a good fit, but he's now in Arizona. Word is that Le'Veon Bell has the right kind of skillset to run behind this scheme and be successful, so that's another thing to watch.
The Rookies:
Really, there are two rookie classes to evaluate in this game, since DeCastro and Adams were hurt most of last season, third round pick Sean Spence missed all of last season on injured reserve, and Alameda Ta'amu went on a drunken rampage through South Side, which hurt his chances to crack the line-up.
Adams and DeCastro will be in starting roles and it'll be nice to see them in action, along with the fact that they'll be working in the new zone blocking scheme. Spence and Ta'amu will be playing more, because they're lower on the depth chart, but they're both playing positions -- Spence at inside linebacker and Ta'amu at defensive tackle -- where there isn't an entrenched, established guy. If they play well, they could unseat the guy in front of them on the depth chart, which is always interesting to watch.
I mentioned Bell, who has apparently had a great camp. Jarvis Jones has also done extremely well by all accounts and I'm most excited to see him play. I really need to see him step into the void that James Harrison left behind, especially since I don't trust Jason Worilds any farther than I can throw him.
Since all the cornerbacks on the roster are working through some type of injury, Shamarko Thomas will be playing nickel back with the first team defense tonight. I'm really looking forward to seeing him play. His natural position is safety, but if he can also help out as a nickel cornerback, then that's another thing he can do to help this team. Ryan Clark and Troy aren't getting any younger, Ryan Mundy will be on the other team's sideline, and it would be super nice if this kid stepped up and started playing well from the get-go.
Rookie receivers Justin Brown and Markus Wheaton should get a lot of work, since there are now open spots at 4th and 5th receiver after the Plaxico Burress injury. There are actually a lot of warm bodies at the position -- there are 11 guys in total, counting Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, Jerricho Cotchery, and Plax, who probably won't have to fight for their roster spots -- and I'm hoping that this fosters competition for remaining roster spots. The more tough decisions these young guys can make the coaches make, the better the depth at the position.
Explosive Plays:
The Steelers were a really, really boring team last year. They didn't generate a lot of explosive plays on offense and they played things ultra-conservative on defense. Dick LeBeau knew that he didn't have the personnel to take a lot of chances and try to make a lot of splash plays, so he tried to teach the guys on defense to keep everything in front of them and not be a hero. The result was that they didn't allow a lot of 20+, 30+, or 40+ yard plays, but they also didn't record a lot of sacks or force very many turnovers.
On offense, they were hesitant to stretch the field and go for the big play and their running backs were mostly "two yards and a cloud of dust" guys that didn't get yards in chunks.
You ended up with an 8-8 team that played vanilla games that didn't feature many big plays on offense or defense, not a lot of sacks or turnovers, and a lot of low-scoring slugfests. The 2009 Steelers finished 8-8, but at least they were exciting. They forced turnovers like crazy, turned the ball over like crazy, and big plays were all over the place. Another team like that may kill me, but it's a chance I'm wiling to take.
At this point, I suspect that the 2013 Steelers will finish anywhere from 6-10 to 8-8 and I'm prepared for that. I just don't want it to be boring.
What I'm looking for tonight is whether or not the young kids have the swagger and the skill to go out and try and make something happen. They may let up some big plays, they may make some big plays, but in the end what I'm looking for is something interesting and exciting. With the number of players that are going to either retire or get cut in the next couple of seasons, I want to see what this next generation is made of.
No Injuries:
Just wanted to make sure I said it. As long as we make it through tonight without anyone getting seriously hurt, that's a net win.
Friday, August 09, 2013
Buccos Fever: Time to Catch It
(Editor's Note: When I got home from work, I was bound and determined to write a positive post about the Pirates and I'm gonna do it. Even though they're currently losing to the Rockies by 4 after 1 inning.)
I've been doing everything I normally do throughout the course of a Pirates season: Going to games, watching a few here and there on TV, keeping track of stats and trends to see if they're playing over their heads, under their heads, or about where they should be. This season, I did all these things wincing, with one eye closed. That's because I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop, for them to blow it all by collapsing.
Well, they're 114 games in, they have the best record in baseball, and they already have 70 wins. They could go 12-36 for the remainder of the season and still finish above .500. If they continue at their current pace, then close out the season 9-23 like they did last season when they were in full Collapse Mode, they'll still win 89 games.
I've stopped wincing and I have both eyes open. That actually happened a while ago, but I assumed that the reason they hadn't started their collapse yet was because I was keeping my big mouth shut.
OK... at this point I am going to guarantee that the Pirates win 82 games this year. There, I said it.
Here's the thing: This team isn't thinking about 82 wins, they're thinking playoffs. They're trying to win the division and will settle for the Wild Card. Sure, there was a lot of lip service paid to this idea -- most notably by Clint Hurdle -- but now I get the sense that they actually believe it. I think this is a team that's confident and expects to win. That's a huge change between now and the past 20 years or so.
They're playing better defense. Russell Martin alone has thrown out more base stealers already this season than Rod Barajas and Mike McKenry combined did all of last season (27-19). Pedro Alvarez has shown more range and his glove work has improved dramatically; he just needs to work out the kinks on his throw to first. Starling Marte has settled in at left field, Cutch is playing his usual stellar defense in center, and Neil Walker isn't letting his struggles at the plate affect his fielding.
The bullpen isn't as over-worked as they were last season. Provided he comes back healthy, Jason Grilli will be well-rested for the posteason and they'll have a great back-up closer and eighth inning set-up man in Mark Melacon. There really isn't a weak link and, even though the Pirates are 22nd in Quality Starts, you get the feeling that the bullpen is being used correctly, not that Hurdle is going to the well too early too often.
The starting pitching has been very efficient and AJ Burnett hasn't had to carry the staff. James McDonald wasted no time imploding and they've been able to get along very well without him. Guys like Gerrit Cole, Charlie Morton, Brandon Cumpton, and Jeanmar Gomez have filled in admirably and I can see one of them becoming a long reliever when the roster expands in September.
(Well, crap. The Rockies are now winning 7-1 in the bottom of the second. I'm still going through with this.)
On offense... well, the offense has been pretty dreadful. They're 21st in runs, 22nd in batting average, 19th in on-base percentage, and 20th in slugging percentage. Those numbers have actually improved in the last month or so. However, the big issue last season was that they were hot and cold and relied too much on timely hitting. Their numbers have stabilized this season and even Pedro has been more consistent. With runners in scoring position, Cutch and Walker have taken a big step down and everyone else has had to pick up the slack. That means that they don't have that one guy you need to be afraid of, but it also means that someone different can (and has) step up every night.
They still have a major hole in right field, where they're dead last in OPS at that position. Travis Snider probably did us all a favor when his .219 average and .609 OPS went on the DL, but Jose Tabata and Alex Presley haven't been much better. Presley has one freakin' walk in 66 plate appearances and the two have combined for only 18 extra base hits. After they stood pat at the trade deadline and with Alex Rios getting traded from the White Sox to the Rangers, it looks like there aren't any options on the open market. I think they'll need to give the Tabata/Presley platoon a couple more weeks, then call in Andrew Lambo. They have nowhere to go but up, OPS-wise.
Right field OPS will either stay at its current horrid state or improve. If Neil Walker can get back up in the .280 or .290 range, that would be a huge boost. Cutch is really starting to catch fire and Pedro's due for another hot streak. They've already overcome some pretty significant injuries to their starting pitching and bullpen and might be able to overcome more (though I really hope no one else gets hurt, please). Their prospects -- either guys they drafted or guys they traded for -- have paid off and they're finally starting to hit on bargain free agents and low risk trades (Martin and Francisco Liriano this year, AJ Burnett last season).
I think that success is sustainable for the next 48 games and I think it's sustainable beyond this season. They've quietly "crept up" to 19th in payroll and they're spending almost four times what the 30th-ranked team (Astros) is spending.
These aren't your father's Pirates. Well, maybe your father's Pirates won the World Series, I'm not sure how old you are. I mean, my father's Pirates won the World Series. They're not your older sibling's Pirates when you were a "change of life" baby.
They're your Pittsburgh Pirates and it's time to catch Bucco Fever.
(FOR THE LOVE OF- now it's 10-1.)
I've been doing everything I normally do throughout the course of a Pirates season: Going to games, watching a few here and there on TV, keeping track of stats and trends to see if they're playing over their heads, under their heads, or about where they should be. This season, I did all these things wincing, with one eye closed. That's because I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop, for them to blow it all by collapsing.
Well, they're 114 games in, they have the best record in baseball, and they already have 70 wins. They could go 12-36 for the remainder of the season and still finish above .500. If they continue at their current pace, then close out the season 9-23 like they did last season when they were in full Collapse Mode, they'll still win 89 games.
I've stopped wincing and I have both eyes open. That actually happened a while ago, but I assumed that the reason they hadn't started their collapse yet was because I was keeping my big mouth shut.
OK... at this point I am going to guarantee that the Pirates win 82 games this year. There, I said it.
Here's the thing: This team isn't thinking about 82 wins, they're thinking playoffs. They're trying to win the division and will settle for the Wild Card. Sure, there was a lot of lip service paid to this idea -- most notably by Clint Hurdle -- but now I get the sense that they actually believe it. I think this is a team that's confident and expects to win. That's a huge change between now and the past 20 years or so.
They're playing better defense. Russell Martin alone has thrown out more base stealers already this season than Rod Barajas and Mike McKenry combined did all of last season (27-19). Pedro Alvarez has shown more range and his glove work has improved dramatically; he just needs to work out the kinks on his throw to first. Starling Marte has settled in at left field, Cutch is playing his usual stellar defense in center, and Neil Walker isn't letting his struggles at the plate affect his fielding.
The bullpen isn't as over-worked as they were last season. Provided he comes back healthy, Jason Grilli will be well-rested for the posteason and they'll have a great back-up closer and eighth inning set-up man in Mark Melacon. There really isn't a weak link and, even though the Pirates are 22nd in Quality Starts, you get the feeling that the bullpen is being used correctly, not that Hurdle is going to the well too early too often.
The starting pitching has been very efficient and AJ Burnett hasn't had to carry the staff. James McDonald wasted no time imploding and they've been able to get along very well without him. Guys like Gerrit Cole, Charlie Morton, Brandon Cumpton, and Jeanmar Gomez have filled in admirably and I can see one of them becoming a long reliever when the roster expands in September.
(Well, crap. The Rockies are now winning 7-1 in the bottom of the second. I'm still going through with this.)
On offense... well, the offense has been pretty dreadful. They're 21st in runs, 22nd in batting average, 19th in on-base percentage, and 20th in slugging percentage. Those numbers have actually improved in the last month or so. However, the big issue last season was that they were hot and cold and relied too much on timely hitting. Their numbers have stabilized this season and even Pedro has been more consistent. With runners in scoring position, Cutch and Walker have taken a big step down and everyone else has had to pick up the slack. That means that they don't have that one guy you need to be afraid of, but it also means that someone different can (and has) step up every night.
They still have a major hole in right field, where they're dead last in OPS at that position. Travis Snider probably did us all a favor when his .219 average and .609 OPS went on the DL, but Jose Tabata and Alex Presley haven't been much better. Presley has one freakin' walk in 66 plate appearances and the two have combined for only 18 extra base hits. After they stood pat at the trade deadline and with Alex Rios getting traded from the White Sox to the Rangers, it looks like there aren't any options on the open market. I think they'll need to give the Tabata/Presley platoon a couple more weeks, then call in Andrew Lambo. They have nowhere to go but up, OPS-wise.
Right field OPS will either stay at its current horrid state or improve. If Neil Walker can get back up in the .280 or .290 range, that would be a huge boost. Cutch is really starting to catch fire and Pedro's due for another hot streak. They've already overcome some pretty significant injuries to their starting pitching and bullpen and might be able to overcome more (though I really hope no one else gets hurt, please). Their prospects -- either guys they drafted or guys they traded for -- have paid off and they're finally starting to hit on bargain free agents and low risk trades (Martin and Francisco Liriano this year, AJ Burnett last season).
I think that success is sustainable for the next 48 games and I think it's sustainable beyond this season. They've quietly "crept up" to 19th in payroll and they're spending almost four times what the 30th-ranked team (Astros) is spending.
These aren't your father's Pirates. Well, maybe your father's Pirates won the World Series, I'm not sure how old you are. I mean, my father's Pirates won the World Series. They're not your older sibling's Pirates when you were a "change of life" baby.
They're your Pittsburgh Pirates and it's time to catch Bucco Fever.
(FOR THE LOVE OF- now it's 10-1.)
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