Steelers East vs. Steelers West Preview

Weidman had an excellent point about this game: It's the most important game of the season for the fans and Tomlin. I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt and assume that he meant it was the most important game of the regular season for the fans and Tomlin. Assuming we make the playoffs, of course.

Weidman's two main points:

1. If Tomlin wins, he's off to a better start than any Cowher-lead team in history. Game, set, and match.
2. If he loses, not only is he no better than Cowher, he's worse than the two guys the Steelers didn't hire so they could hire Tomlin.

Needless to say, there's a lot on the line. This is not to mention the fact that Steelers West is called Steelers West because they have so many of our guys on their team. And, if you're thinking that Alan Faneca won't have a nice chat with Grimm, Whisenhunt, and the Bidwells (proud owners of Steelers West), basically saying, "You know, I really love it out here. Nice, dry climate. My daughter has asthma and this would be great for her. I saw a really nice house in Tempe on Saturday..." you're not paranoid, you're perceptive.

This is the most important game of the regular season for Steelers West as well, so that raises the stakes.

As far as actual personnel and strategy are concerned, I think we have a pretty big advantage over the West Coast Branch. Their offense can be explosive, since they have three really good receivers (Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Bryant Johnson). And, just for this game (and partly because two guys were hurt and one was on bye), I activated Johnson on my fantasy team. He's not going post huge numbers, but I could see 5 catches for 75 yards and touchdown, simply because we'll be too busy trying to stop the Big Three and Edgerrin James.

Now, the one big problem with Steelers West has always been that their offensive line blows. Since Grimm was hired and regular season started, Edge is averaging an entire yard more per carry and I've read no fewer than four articles about how much the line has turned itself around since he started. They're no match for our defensive line and that happy horseshit is going to stop this week. If they can gain 85 yards on the ground against us, I'll be shocked.

The other big issue with Steelers West is their defense. They've got a lot of first round talent, but none of those guys has ever really played up to his potential. You've gotta worry about Adrian Wilson (their Troy) and Bert Berry (their... uh... pass rusher - no equivalent on the Steelers East side). We really should roll over these guys. They're not tough up front and their cornerbacks suck balls. Even if we don't have Hines (probably won't), we should still be able to run and pass on them to our hearts' content.

All of this is dependent on whether or not we come out flat like we did against the 49ers. If we come out flat, we're in some deep shit. They could jump out to a 14-0 lead and pull a Cowher on us. It could get uglier than 14-0 if we come out flat.

From a personnel standpoint, we really should kick their asses all over the field. But, when you look at all the intangibles, then add the fact that Steelers East has sucked shit out of a straw on the West Coast (regardless of coach), then add my final point, this is going to be a freakin' nightmare game. One of those games, like the Oakland game last year, where we look back at it at the end of the season and go, "Crap. We lost to those guys?!?!?!"

Here's the final variable: Whisenhunt has a bigger advantage over the Steelers than Bill Bellichick had over any coach throughout the past six years. He knows our receivers. He knows our linemen. He knows Ben. Real well. He knows their tendencies, he knows their strengths, he knows their weaknesses. It's kinda like if I taught a bunch of guys how to play 5 card stud and Texas Hold 'Em, then played against those same guys in the World Series of Poker. Sure, the cards still come out at random, there are other variables at play, they may have learned a few things since we were all hanging out and playing cards in my basement, but I'd still know when they were bluffing.

Whisenhunt knows what it means when Ben holds his right hand behind his helmet. He knows that Marvel Smith is uncomfortable and doesn't have his "A" game when he tries to stuff his armpit fat in his jersey to keep from muffining. He knows which direction Willie likes to run. He knows what makes Willie decide to bounce it to the outside or cut it inside. He knows how Ben reads a defense.

Don't believe me? Two words: Rich Gannon. He threw 6 interceptions against Tampa in the Super Bowl. Now, anyone can have a bad game, but aside from Gannon himself, no one on the planet knows Rich Gannon better than then Tampa coach Jon Gruden. There's nothing illegal about it, it's just how it is.

One more thing: Guess who Steelers West signed after Week 2? Chukki Okobi. Sure Larry Zierlein and Bruce Arians might have changed a few things since Whis, Russ, and Cowher were there. But Okobi knows what's new, knows what's different, knows the line calls, and knows who is doing a good job of assimilating the new system and who isn't. He hasn't played a down since they signed him. Think he's just taking up space out in Phoenix, or do you think they've been picking his brain for the past two weeks?

That's another one of those paranoid vs. perceptive things.

Prediction: Steelers West 23, Steelers East 20

Steelers vs. 49ers Review

Well, I'm still undefeated! And, the Steelers are 3-0 for the sixth time in their history.

How'd those other five teams do? They five playoff appearances and two Super Bowl wins. Not bad. Not. Bad. At. All.

Thus far, we've outscored our opponents 97-26. We're not just beating people, we're not just kicking their asses, we're destroying them. The 4-1 or 5-0 prediction that I made for Steelers entering the bye is starting to look more and more feasible. And, since my Fantasy teams are more fucked than a hooker at a USO dance, the Steelers had better come through with a division title.

The offense was balanced, the defense was downright stifling (any time you hold Frank Gore to 37 yards, it's a victory), and HOW ABOUT THAT ALLEN ROSSUM? Told you that was a great pick-up. Not only does he not fumble punts (although he seems a little too fond of the fair catch), he's still a dangerous return man. He's not one of those "gamebreakers" like Eric Metcalf or Jermaine Lewis in their primes (or Devin Hester today), but he's just dangerous enough to make things interesting. I enjoy that.

On offense, I have to say that I think they came out a little sluggish, but then made it count when they had to (the drive at the end of the first half, the drive at the beginning of the second half, the nail in the coffin by Najeh in the fourth quarter). Fast Willie continues to impress. They're finally throwing to the tight end (Heather was the leading receiver). 7 for 12 on third down. Ben completed 13 of 20 passes. The scary thing is that it usually takes a couple more games for the offense to get on track than it does the defense. This means that, having scored 34, 26, and 37 points, we could actually get better. That's very encouraging. Especially since...

The defense looks amazing. There was a scuttlebutt early last week that Dick LeBeau was held back in his scheming by Cowher. I don't know if that's true or not, but I am going to say that they've been more creative with their blitz packages and coverages. The linebackers (yes, even Clark Haggans) are playing much better and pressuring the quarterback. The defensive backs are playing well, too, as evidenced by the number of coverage sacks the defense has already tallied this season. And, per usual, the defensive line is the best 3-4 line in the league. Hands down. They're just incredible.

We've got a tough road game coming up against Steelers West (I think that's going to be tougher than the Seattle game, which is at least at home), so we should enjoy it while it lasts.

I seriously think we can go into the bye at 5-0. With how crappy everyone else in the division looks, that bodes very, very well for the Steelers.

While We're At It...

The 49ers just lost starting linebacker Manny Lawson for the season. Lawson was one of their first round picks last year (the other was Vernon Davis) and he really seemed to be primed to start putting it together. He was a 4-3 end in college and was making the transition to linebacker in the 3-4. He tore his ACL, so it's no cause to celebrate, but that will make things easier on Sunday, no doubt.

Here's the only thing: The guy that will most likely be starting in his place is named Hannibal Davies. Hannibal. Just sounds like a bad ass.

While we're talking about movies, here are three I've seen recently that you need to see:

1. Halloween. Anyone that thinks the first one is a masterpiece won't like the re-make. But, anyone that thinks the first one is anything but a slasher flick with a lot of loud music and an egregous lack of Jamie Lee Curtis boobies probably needs to take a film class. At any rate, the first one was a slasher flick with a lot of loud music. This one is more of a psychological thriller that explores what the hell is going on in Michael Myers' head and tries to figure out why he suddenly decides to bust out of the Booby Hatch and start hacking up babysitters. Some would say that's it's gorier than the first one, but that's really a matter of budget and technology. Rob Zombie could've showed much more blood and carnage than he did. The fact that he didn't is a choice. It's not about body counts and exposed skull fractures, it's about Michael.
2. Shoot 'Em Up. Clive Owen kills a dude with a carrot. If this film didn't at least challenge Rambo III and Total Recall for the highest body count I'll be surprised. You need to leave your disbelief willingly suspended in a sensory depravation chamber with no contact to the outside world before you walk into the theater. If you do that, you'll love it. If you don't, you'll be wondering about more than the fact that a two day old child is eating solid food and producing solid waste (my biggest, "Nah, that's not realistic," moment of the movie because I came prepared). I have no idea if the stunts were done with CGI or if they were real. If they were real, the Stunt Guy for Clive Owen must have a dick like a signpost that has diamonds at the end of it.
3. 3:10 to Yuma. The only film that will even sniff an Oscar on this list. I'm a sucker for Westerns, so most folks won't like it as much as I do. However, it's doing well at the box office and there are strong performances from Russell Crowe and Christian Bale. Somehow, both of those guys manage to pull off flawless Southern accents, while Cameron Diaz needs an old priest and a young priest to do an Irish accent. Great drama, excellent character arcs, cool ending, lots of guns. And, while I'm here, I'd like to add that advances in sound effects editing have actually made Westerns more realistic, even though the characters are doing things that are less realistic. The most people Clint Eastwood ever killed at once in The Trilogy (Fistful of Dollars, For a Few Dollars More, The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly) was three people. When I first watched him kill three dudes in a flash of gunfire, I actually said, "Holy shit!" I now know that it was because sound was dubbed horribly and the sound of the gun actually came through the speakers after the dudes were already lying in bloody heaps on the ground. Watching Young Guns, Unforgiven, and now 3:10 to Yuma, it's amazing what a difference sound effects editing makes. Russell Crowe and his minions have multiple occasions where they'll gun down four or five dudes and it seems perfectly realistic. I wouldn't like to get into a duel with him or any of his boyz, but it doesn't seem like something that defies all applicable laws of physics.

I think I'm gonna go to bed now. Go see these movies. While you're at it, go buy We Are Marshall (every time I see just the commercial I get goosebumps) and Grindhouse (it's very Tarantino at the beginning but gets intense in a hurry).

Steelers vs. 49ers Preview

I'm through pussy-footing around on this: We're a much better team than the 49ers and we should, all things being equal, kick the ever-loving shit out of them on Sunday.

Two Points:

1. The squeaked by two pretty crappy teams (Rams and Steelers West) the past two weeks and their record is deceptive. They're not as good as it would indicate. The Steelers, on the other hand, have kicked hell out of the two patsies they've faced thus far. Their point differential? Plus 4. Steelers point differential? Plus 50.
2. I'm going to the game. I am undefeated when watching a Steelers game at the stadium. And, it's not like I'm saying, "Yeah. I saw them play the Redskins in a pre-season game in 1998 and we won! I'm undefeated, bitches!" I went to two games in Three Rivers (Dolphins in '94, Chargers in '96) and have been to five games at Heinz Field (Jaguars and Vikings in '01, Chargers in '03, Redskins and Ravens in '04). Granted, the only game I went to when we had a crappy team was in '03 and, when you win 13 games one year ('01) and 15 the next ('04), the odds are good that I was going to witness a Steelers victory. But, I'm still undefeated. So, suck it.

Okay. Look at the 49ers depth chart. Most likely, you've heard of Alex Smith (#1 overall pick), Frank Gore (Fantasy Football), Nate Clements (signed a $501 bajillion contract in the offsesaon), and maybe, maybe Vernon Davis (more on why later) or Shawntae Spencer (went to Pitt).

Out of all those people, Vernon Davis scares me.

Frank Gore hasn't been real spectacular thus far. He's a Fantasy star to this point because he's scored touchdowns, but the only noteworthy thing he did so far this season was break a 43-yard touchdown against a shitty Rams defense that can't tackle. Plus which, they've got a rookie at right tackle and Larry Allen at left guard. I understand that Allen has been to Hawaii more times than Elvis, but the man is past his prime. The only thing he has going for him is that he's big, strong, and fat. Casey Hampton is way bigger, way stronger, and possibly fatter (yes, that's how fat Larry Allen is). Gore might break a big play or two (and by big, I mean 20 yards, tops), but he's going to end up with around 25 carries for 70 yards. And no touchdowns.

Alex Smith was drafted as a consolation prize. Leinart didn't come out the year Smith was drafted and the 49ers didn't want to piss their fanbase off any more by drafted, say, a boring player like a defensive lineman (hello, Texans) with the first overall selection. Smith is mobile, but he's not that mobile. He has a nice arm, but it's not that nice of an arm. He's accurate, but not that accurate. Put it this way: If Ben had stayed for his senior season, he would've gotten taken 1st overall instead of Smith and Smith would've plummeted to the Packers at 24th overall (hello, Aaron Rogers).

Nate Clements is one guy covering one receiver. Much as I love Hines Ward, there's not a huge difference between him and Santonio Holmes. Much as I love Holmes, not a huge difference between him and Cedrick Wilson. Not much difference (except height-wise) between Wilson and Nate Washington. And, there's Heath Miller and the Steelers have yet to execute a decent screen pass to Fast Willie this season.

Shawntae Spencer sucks my balls. Not worth a first round pick when they drafted him, not worth a roster spot now. For whatever reason, Pitt cornerbacks don't make a smooth transition from college to the NFL. Running backs? Absolutely. Offensive linemen? Totally. Quaterbacks? It's touch and go. But, with all the great teams they've had in the past (way in the past, not even remotely brining up Pitt's present), name me one even halfway decent CB to come out of Pitt. Yes, I realize that the book is still out on Derrelle Revis, but he does play for that shitty-ass Rams defense...

Now, onto the guy that scares me: Vernon Davis. He scares me based solely on potential and the fact that the Steelers defense can't seem to cover a tight end to save their lives. Davis only has 4 catches for 27 yards this year, but he's got great size and freakish athletic ability (why do I feel like I just plummeted into a Viagra commercial). Kellen Winslow always beats up on us (even if his team always loses), ditto Todd Heap, Alge Crumpler last year, the list goes on. If Davis ever realizes his immense potential, he could do a lot of damage to a team on Sundays. Let's just hope it's not this Sunday.

When we have the ball, the 49ers have a pretty good flavor of the 3-4 defense. But, their defensive linemen are terrible (seriously, check the depth chart again) and their linebackers are guys who haven't "quite put it together yet." I've heard the defense is tough, but I really think that's as a result of Clements shutting down Larry Fitzgerald when they played Steelers West, him doing a pretty good job on Torry Holt when they played the Rams, and them racking up six sacks on a thoroughly depleted Rams offensive line (when they lose Orlando Pace, their season is over).

On top of all that, we run the 3-4 defense, so our offensive linemen know what the gap assignments and responsibilities of their defensive linemen are. That gives them an advantage over the 49ers above and beyond the fact that they're better players. We'll be able to run the ball and Fast Wille will probably break a couple of long runs when their inexperienced inside linebackers take bad angles and their inexperienced outside linebackers can't get to the corner in time.

In the passing game, just avoid Clements until it doesn't matter anymore. We have enough weapons that Ben just needs to hit the open guy. They'll blitz enough early that he just needs to recognize it, hit a couple big plays, then put Batch in at about the mid-way part of the third quarter.

This strikes me as one of those games that the Steelers used to find themselves on the wrong side of. The 49ers (and especially coach Mike Nolan) are looking to control the clock, play solid defense, and keep our offense off the field. The only issue is that they'll go three-and-out too often too early, we'll scorch their blitzing linebackers after we spread the defense out, and they'll be in a 17-0 hole in the second quarter that they can't climb out of. Going with the Steelers paralell, the 49ers could climb out if they were playing Cincinnati or Cleveland, but we ain't Cincinnati or Cleveland.

Sidebar: Mike Nolan has fought long and hard to be able to wear a suit on the sidelines during games in order to honor his father. He finally won his battle this year. Check him out on the sidelines in his suit. By the midpoint of the second quarter, he usually looks like some guy's unfortunate kid brother at a wedding. Seriously. By about halftime, it looks like he's thinking, "Man. Why did I have to be an usher? These pants are chafing my balls something serious and I can't breathe with this tie on."

Prediction:

Steelers 27, 49ers 7

Steelers vs. Bills Review

I was talking to Weidman this morning and he said something very interesting:

"It's weird to read your blog the day after the game. I looked and I saw all the things that were making you nervous about the Bills game and thought they were all valid points at the time. But, after we beat up on them yesterday, I have to wonder why you were worried about them at all."

And, I must say that I agree. I really shouldn't have been nervous, but the manic-depressive-stripper thing and the let's-win-one-for-our-paralyzed-teammate thing really got into my head. I guess I shouldn't have worried about it.

Actually, this was more of a beat-down than the Cleveland game. The Bills didn't turn the ball over 3 times in the first four possessions (didn't turn the ball over at all for the whole game) and we gained more yards than in the Cleveland game.

Really, there's nothing huge to complain about in this game.

The coverage units need to get better and we need to do better than 2 of 6 in the red zone, but the Steelers looked awful damn good (the awful was the retro uniforms, the damn good was how they played).

Ben looked a lot more comfortable in this game and did better than his stats would suggest. The line protected signficantly better and gave him plenty of time to scan the field, find his receiver, and make the connection. Run blocking showed a huge improvement (the Bills are much better along the defensive line than the Browns) and Willie hit the holes that were created with authority and speed.

And, ultimately, there's no getting around these facts:

1. The hated Ravens are 1-1 and struggled against the Jets and their back-up quarterback. And, they might have to go through a long stretch with Kyle Boller as their QB. I just don't trust McNair to gut out painful injuries at this stage in his career and it sounds like he has three or four pretty nagging aches and pains at this point.
2. The Browns still suck, even though they're 1-1.
3. The Bengals gave up 51 points to the same team we thumped last week. They gave up those 51 points even though the guy that couldn't beat out Charlie Frye and was barely holding off Brady Quinn was at quarterback.
4. I know it's only Week 2 and we've played a couple of really crappy teams, but bear this in mind: There are only two teams in the NFL that have shit-stomped their first two opponents. That would be us and the Patriots. Granted, they looked unstoppable against an exceptionally good San Diego team last night and they're probably way better than we are, but alleged Super Powers (like, well, the Chargers, the Colts, the Bears, and the Mighty Houston Texans) have failed to win both games handily the first two weeks, or even to win both games outright.

So... if our strategy to win the division this year is to hope that the other three teams take a step back and we're able to beat up on the patsies on the schedule, the plan is going exceedingly well at this point.

In advance, I'm not afraid of the 49ers. I don't even have a, "Well, if they..." worry about them.

The only thing that worries me is that I'm not worried.

Steelers vs. Bills Preview

I put off posting something about the game because I've had a busy week and... I really don't know too much about the Bills.

I do know two things:

1. They don't suck as bad as the Browns.
2. They got the double-pentration treatment (losses in free agency coupled with no real quality additions) in the off-season.

They also drafted Marshawn Lynch, who I kinda wanted the Steelers to take.

But, they played the Broncos tough last week. Denver had over 400 yards, granted, but Buffalo kept them out of the end zone and played great defense in the red zone (one of those "bend, don't break" situations). I'm thinking that, if we manage 400 yards against these guys, we'll have another Cleveland situation on our hands.

The first two games of the 2007 season remind me a lot of the first two games of the 2005 season. We had a couple of creampuffs early on, then the schedule got considerably tougher. We won our first two in 2005 (Tennesee and Houston) and needed those wins by the time the end of the season rolled around, so this is a "must win" situation on Sunday.

I put "must win" in quotes, because, obviously, the season is not lost if we lose tomorrow. I'm sure Kaiser Goodell would still make the Steelers play the remaining 14 games on the schedule. My point is that we need to beat the creampuffs on the schedule to make it through the season at 11-5 and win the division. If that happens, I look like a genius to my readers. All three of you. Your opinion matters a great deal to me. Especially you. No, in the back. There's plenty of seats. Why don't you move down?

At any rate, most of the key defections were on defense (I know that Willis McGahee was traded, but Lynch ain't a bad replacement). In the off-season, I took a quick look at them and thought, "Huh. The offense looks pretty good, but who's going to play defense for this team?" The offense sucked balls last week and managed only one touchdown (with another from special teams) while the defense gave up 400 yards, only saving a blowout by playing some stout red zone defense.

This means that, if the offense isn't on track, we should be golden.

Now... this is the home opener for the Steelers, so the fans will be fired up. The Bills are a young team, since the guys that departed were veterans and they were replaced by recent draft picks. So, the only thing that's dangerous is about them is their offense, they're young, and we're at home. See where I'm going with this? Score on them early, let the crowd take over, and sit on the lead in the second half. And pray to God no one gets hurt.

JP Losman is as up-and-down as a manic depressive in a strip club. We've got to make sure that he hits that, "I've had 10 beers on Zoloft and I'm out of money," stage early. If he starts making lines of coke on his pelvis in the first quarter and is waving a fist full of $100 bills, we're in deep trouble.

Lee Evans (sounds kinda like hot girl's name, doesn't it?) is in the same boat. Last year, he had a game where he caught 3 touchdown passes of 70+ yards. Last game, he caught 2 passes for 5 yards. Then again, he was being covered by Champ Bailey last week. So there's that.

Since they lost their left tackle (Mike Gandy, not Wayne Gandy) to Steelers West (BTW - Never properly credited Weidman for coming up with that name, so here's his credit; Weidman came up with the name "Steelers West" for the Arizona Cardinals and it's a damn good name, so I stole it), I'm thinking they won't be able to run the ball on us. The defensive line's too good and the linebackers seem to be flying to the football in run support, so I'm thinking Lynch is in for a Jamal-Lewis-last-week kind of game.

There is, however, one x-factor: Remember when Brett Favre's Dad died and he obliterated the Raiders for 821 yards and 12 touchdowns in the first half of a Monday Night Football game? I have a sinking suspicion that the Bills are going to rally around Kevin Everett (the guy that had his spine broken last week) in the same way.

Do I think it'll be enough? No. This is still a pretty shitty team. They're not that much better than the Browns.

Steelers 24, Bills 13

Steelers vs. Browns Review

I keep thinking that I should post something about how awesome it is that we took the Browns to the woodshed and beat them like a red-headed rented step-mule. Something with a lot of exclamation points and words like clutch, key, dominant, suffocating, and impressive. But... I can't.

Two reasons:

1. The Browns looked worse than Michigan out there yesterday.
2. If you look at the stats and the game itself, we really didn't do all that great.

The first four drives for Cleveland went punt (for 15 yards - and ten of that came back because of 1 of 4 penalties), interception, punt, fumble.

When you look at it (and you look at the average starting field position the Steelers enjoyed early on), you may well have assumed that we had a 28-0 lead early in the first quarter. But, we had some issues in the red zone and the running game got off to a slow start, so we only jumped out to a 17-0 lead.

It was an ass-kicking, let their be no doubt. But, it could have and should have been a lot worse.

And, I'm not talking about the fact that Tomlin was gracious enough to put the second stringers in for most of the 4th quarter. I'm talking about the fact that we had a chance for a kill shot before the first quarter even ended and we didn't take it. Granted, I had no fear whatsoever that we were going to lose the game after leading by only 17 points at halftime, but a 28-0 shitstomping in the first quarter is the only way I can see the ending stats as something that warrants a lot of exclamation points.

We rushed for 206 yards. I realize that most of that came in the second half when we rushed 18 straight times... but, did it seem to anyone else that we were dominant up front and that you could safely say after the game that we "pushed the Browns around" or "man-handled" them for 206 yards? It didn't look like we man-handled anyone. We... really just rushed for 206 yards.

Fast Willie rushed for 109 yards. Really? He did!?!? When the announcers said, "And, Willie Parker is now over 100 yards, with 102," I remember being surprised, thinking that he only had 65 or 70 at that point.

Ben threw four touchdowns... but for only 159 yards. On 23 attempts. Completing 12.

I'm not saying we didn't kick holy-hellfire out of the Browns. We did. I'm not saying I'm not happy. I am. I'm not saying we should strike this victory from the record books and say that the Steelers suck big, fat, hairy balls and the Browns just had a bad day. Because that's not true and Goodell wouldn't let me strike anything from the record books.

I'm saying that we have a lot of teams on the schedule (almost all of them - we do play Cleveland again this year) where 159 passing yards and 206 rushing yards (on 42 attempts) just ain't gonna cut it.

I'm saying that it's highly unlikely that we'll be +4 in the turnover category and have 4 drives that begin on the opponent's side of the field in the first quarter again.

The bright side is that the defense looked especially sharp, the passing game showed flashes of brilliance, and we're a few timing issues away from having the running game truly explode (trust me on the running game - Willie was closer than you think to breaking about 4 or 5 additional big runs yesterday).

The other important thing to remember is that we have Allen Rossum returning punts and kick-offs now. He won't break any big returns, but he most definitely will make the right decisions at the right times. This includes him always catching and securing the ball, since that is always the right decision.

We've got another (presumably) easy game coming up in the soft part of our schedule. We need to keep this up.

Steelers vs. Browns Preview

There's a Cleveland in Australia.

That's pretty much the most interesting thing I can bring to the table when discussing this game with the Browns on Sunday.

I can think of three reasons why the Steelers will win and they're all pretty compelling:

1. They suck balls and we're way more talented across the roster.
2. We've won 13 of the last 14 games against them and the last 7 in a row.
3. There is absolutely, positively NO WAY Tomlin allows this team to lose this game. It's his first game as a coach, it's a division game, it's Cleveland, and he's been waiting for this game since the Steelers hired him. He's going to have every last detail prepared and accounted for, including four different options of what he will say when the sideline reporter interviews him before halftime.

This to say nothing of the fact that the Browns are still quarterbacked by Charlie Frye and they've got Hank Fraley as their starting center. Frye got abused by the outside linebackers last season (and the season before that) and Fraley was probably afraid to look anyone in the eye after what Casey Hampton did to him last season.

Those two details mean that the Browns won't be able to throw the ball (because Frye sucks and he'll hear footsteps coming out of the tunnel - that's funny because he'll be walking through the tunnel there's an echo) and that they won't be able to run up the middle, which is really the only place Jamal Lewis is effective.

On defense, they've got a few guys that are in their late eighties and a few guys that were born in the late eighties. It's always good to have youth on defense, it's always good to have veteran leadership on defense. But you also need to have mostly guys that are in that 26-29 sweet spot where they're in the prime of their careers. The Browns don't have any of those guys.

I picked the Steelers to win in my Survivor Pool. And so did just about everyone else, including the girl that thinks the I-Formation is a self-empowering religious cult.

Everyone on ESPN.com (and pretty much every other Web site I've checked) has the Steelers.

Most importantly: I understand that this blog entry is one, gigantic jinx and I'm still going to post it. That's how confident I that they're going to win.

Season Prediction

I decided to write a prediction for the upcoming season because people kept asking me, "How do you think they're going to do this year?" I have no real idea. So, I'd tell them honestly, "Gee. I dunno. New coach, new offense, new coordinator, more responsibility for Ben, we still don't know who are starting five on the offensive line are... could be anything. Probably not good, but could be anything."

Well, that's a shitty prediction.

It's kind of like an "open invitation." I'm sure you've gotten an "open invitation" to hang out at somebody's house, come out for the weekend, come over and play with the kids, etc. Really? Is it totally open? Can I show up at your house at 4 a.m. with a case of beer, pounding on your door and screaming, "DOOD! Natty Ice is the beer of the SUN! We gotta drink it to toast the sunrise!" Can I really? It's an open invitation, right?

What an open invitation really is is one party not caring enough about the situation to bust out the calendars and pick a date. Sure, you might settle on August 5th, 2009 between 1-1:30 p.m., but that probably just means you're too busy. Maybe you should stop reading this blog. You look tired. A vacation, maybe. My buddy says I have an open invitation to hang out at his beach house...

At any rate, me throwing my hands up and saying, "They could win the Super Bowl, they could draft 1st overall!" was just as much of a cop-out.

So, without further ado, here's what I think...

I think we're going to win the division. I may be a total moron (that's probably the case, actually), but that's what I think. And, I've looked at the schedule, thought about the other teams in the league and the division, and that's what I seriously think.

Here's why:

1. I'm not basing a division championship on our pre-season record, but the fact that we went 4-1 really tells me something about Mike Tomlin: He gives a shit about how this season turns out. Emphatically. The. Man. Gives. A. Shit. He might give two, or up to seven shits about the outcome of the 2007 season for our beloved Steelers. He came into the pre-season prepared. He had the guys ready to play for each game and he had them fired up. Especially on defense, where we gave up a total of 42 points in 5 pre-season games. From the pre-game warm-up music to the post-game speech, he is going to have every last detail planned out. Our guys need that after having to patch leaky faucets and busted sewer manes with an absentee landlord last season.
2. Seventeen months ago, we had just won the freakin' Super Bowl after holding the top 4 offenses in the NFL at bay in consecutive weeks. We've lost guys since then, but we've added guys since then. The majority of the roster is still there, though.
3. First five games: at Cleveland, home against the Bills and 49ers, at Steelers West, home against Seattle. Then a bye. We can win all 5 of those games. My buddy Chris said to me that there's a strong probability that we can head into the bye at 5-0. I said he was a moron. Chris, I apologize. Those are 5 very winnable, pretty easy games.
4. After that, things get hairy, with two road games at Denver and Cincinnati and a Monday night home game (going to that one, bitches!) against the hated Ravens. Now, Denver has tons of new starters on offense and defense, a new defensive coordinator and a second year QB that didn't look all that swift when pressed into service last season. They also missed the playoffs last year and we would've crushed them at Heinz Field had it not been for the six turnovers. Cincinnati has a tougher opening schedule (home game against the hated Ravens on Monday night to open the season, New England before the bye) and will most likely be without their two starting tackles (Levi Jones and Willie Anderson) for the month of September. They also lost Eric Steinbach to the Browns. That's a lot to overcome for a team that lives and dies by its offense. Baltimore... well, they're another issue entirely.
5. Every year in which the hated Ravens have been handed the division title before the season even started, they have not won the division. '01 after their Super Bowl title, we won it. '04 after their division title and playoff run, we won it. '07 after their division title and playoff run... you see where I'm going with this? Add to this the fact that the only pick that solicited a, "Damnit! I was going to take them!" out of anyone in my Fantasy Football drafts was the Ravens D/ST, and you've got a recipe for another disappointing year for the hated Ravens in which the defense eventually gives up and everyone questions Brian Billick's offensive aptitude. I'm telling you. By the time they play us, they could be 2-5. They'll still play us tough, but I'm just floating this out there right now. Granted, they crushed us last year, but this is this year, not last year.
6. Which brings me to this point: If teams try to blitz the hell out of us this year, they are entering into a world of pain. Perhaps the biggest thing I took out of the pre-season is that Ben and his receivers are finally, finally on the same page as far as blitz recognition is concerned. Holmes, Ward, Wilson, and Miller (and possibly even Willie and Davenport) are going to have the opportunity to make some big plays if defenses blitz us a lot this year. And, if they decide to play us straight up, there's no way they can cover everybody. I predict big things from the offense this year. One of the reasons I think we're going to win the division.
7. But, the BIGGEST reason that we'll win the division is this: The Steelers have owned this division for so long that every other team in it is designed just to beat us. The only problem with that design is that we're no longer us anymore. This is a different Steeler team and a pretty big departure from the old Cowher teams (I know, he only resigned in January, but it seems like a lifetime ago and the make-up of this team is significantly different than the one Cowher coached last season). We'll run more no huddle (in that we'll run it at all outside of the two minute warning), we'll run more 4 wide receiver formations on first and second down (in that we'll run them at all), and we'll look to get Willie Parker in space as much as possible. Not just on screens, but creating running lanes where he only has to beat one guy to the corner. We're going to be doing a lot of different things on offense this year and the rest of the division (to say nothing of the rest of the league) will not be ready for it. And, truthfully, I'm not ready for it. But, in order to take the contrarian view, I need to be positive and assume that it's going to work.
8. The defense looks ready to play. They are an emotional group and feed off of emotion. While Tomlin is not as fiery as Cowher, he and Dick LeBeau certainly have this unit fired up. We'll see if it lasts until late in the season (with another brutal stretch), but, again, trying to stay positive here.
9. Getting back to the schedule: After the Monday night game against the hated Ravens (did I mention that I'm going to that game?), we've got the Browns and Dolphins at home surrounding a road game against the Jets. All three of those are winnable. After that, comes the death. Home against the Bengals (who may be reeling at that point), at Foxboro, home against the Jaguars (they always play us tough), then two road games at St. Louis and at Baltimore to close out the season. However, the Patriots aren't as good as everyone thinks, the Jaguars will either be out of contention or possibly have locked up the division by then (same with the Rams), and I highly doubt that the season finale against the hated Ravens is actually going to mean anything - one party or the other will already have the division salted away.

Therefore... if we win the 8 winnable games, we only need to split the other 8 (or even go 3-5, since I doubt anyone else in the division is even going to win 10 games) in order to win the division.

One of the reasons last year was a major disappointment was because we shit the bed against lesser teams. If we simply win the games we're supposed to win, the division is ours.

Think of all the shit that went wrong last season and how painful it was. Then realize we went 8-8 and came within a few bad bounces of making the playoffs.

We got crushed by Baltimore twice and lost to the Raiders, but blew out the Browns, Chiefs, and Panthers. Take care of the inconsistencies of last year, add in that we get to play the AFC East (weaker than the West - last year's opponents) and the NFC West (weaker than the South - last year's opponents), and an 11-5 season doesn't seem that unrealistic, does it?

C'mon. Argue with me. Open invitation.

Actual Cut-downs

I think it's interesting that they cut Verron Haynes and kept both newcomers - Gary Russell and Carey Davis. I think it's interesting and I think it's dumb. Very, very dumb.

If the idea is to make Najeh Davenport both the 3rd down back and the closer, then you're depending on him too much to stay healthy. And that's a bad idea.

The other idea is even worse: Making Davis or Russell your 3rd down back. Neither can block and both aren't as accustomed to running the types of plays that the Steelers run out of the shotgun as Haynes is.

To put it in the simplest terms possible: I would rathered they cut Dan Krieder instead of Haynes. That's how important I think he is to the team. I'm going to assume that they're going to use the fullback sparingly this year and will run more plays out of the shotgun. Therefore, they should've kept their best 3rd down back for this season and given Krieder the opportunity to sign somewhere else.

As it stands, Krieder is going to be this year's Duce and the Davenport/Davis/Russell trio is going to struggle just as much on third down as the Parker/Davenport duo did last season when Haynes was injured. Think about how much third down sucked after Haynes got hurt in 2006. That's going to be this entire season.

One other thing from the cut-downs that didn't get much play but will be very important for the success of the coming season: The Allen Rossum Trade. This is actually a huge trade. It makes me wonder why they kept Willie Reid on the roster (or why they cut Marvin Philip and signed him to the practice squad as opposed to just cutting Reid and signing Walter Young off the practice squad). The important thing is that the punt and kick return duties are now in Rossum's capable hands.

While he's no longer a Pro Bowl return guy, he's still the best option we've had since Randle-El left and gives us a veteran presence back there that we've been lacking. If nothing else, he's going to catch the freakin' ball. Might not get a lot of electrifying returns out of him (although I think he's still got a lot left in the tank), but damnit, he's not going to lose the game for us.

Now, if only we'd traded for him last year...