Two Points:
- The squeaked by two pretty crappy teams (Rams and Steelers West) the past two weeks and their record is deceptive. They're not as good as it would indicate. The Steelers, on the other hand, have kicked hell out of the two patsies they've faced thus far. Their point differential? Plus 4. Steelers point differential? Plus 50.
- I'm going to the game. I am undefeated when watching a Steelers game at the stadium. And, it's not like I'm saying, "Yeah. I saw them play the Redskins in a pre-season game in 1998 and we won! I'm undefeated, bitches!" I went to two games in Three Rivers (Dolphins in '94, Chargers in '96) and have been to five games at Heinz Field (Jaguars and Vikings in '01, Chargers in '03, Redskins and Ravens in '04). Granted, the only game I went to when we had a crappy team was in '03 and, when you win 13 games one year ('01) and 15 the next ('04), the odds are good that I was going to witness a Steelers victory. But, I'm still undefeated. So, suck it.
Okay. Look at the 49ers depth chart. Most likely, you've heard of Alex Smith (#1 overall pick), Frank Gore (Fantasy Football), Nate Clements (signed a $501 bajillion contract in the offsesaon), and maybe, maybe Vernon Davis (more on why later) or Shawntae Spencer (went to Pitt).
Out of all those people, Vernon Davis scares me.
Frank Gore hasn't been real spectacular thus far. He's a Fantasy star to this point because he's scored touchdowns, but the only noteworthy thing he did so far this season was break a 43-yard touchdown against a shitty Rams defense that can't tackle. Plus which, they've got a rookie at right tackle and Larry Allen at left guard. I understand that Allen has been to Hawaii more times than Elvis, but the man is past his prime. The only thing he has going for him is that he's big, strong, and fat. Casey Hampton is way bigger, way stronger, and possibly fatter (yes, that's how fat Larry Allen is). Gore might break a big play or two (and by big, I mean 20 yards, tops), but he's going to end up with around 25 carries for 70 yards. And no touchdowns.
Alex Smith was drafted as a consolation prize. Leinart didn't come out the year Smith was drafted and the 49ers didn't want to piss their fanbase off any more by drafted, say, a boring player like a defensive lineman (hello, Texans) with the first overall selection. Smith is mobile, but he's not that mobile. He has a nice arm, but it's not that nice of an arm. He's accurate, but not that accurate. Put it this way: If Ben had stayed for his senior season, he would've gotten taken 1st overall instead of Smith and Smith would've plummeted to the Packers at 24th overall (hello, Aaron Rogers).
Nate Clements is one guy covering one receiver. Much as I love Hines Ward, there's not a huge difference between him and Santonio Holmes. Much as I love Holmes, not a huge difference between him and Cedrick Wilson. Not much difference (except height-wise) between Wilson and Nate Washington. And, there's Heath Miller and the Steelers have yet to execute a decent screen pass to Fast Willie this season.
Shawntae Spencer sucks my balls. Not worth a first round pick when they drafted him, not worth a roster spot now. For whatever reason, Pitt cornerbacks don't make a smooth transition from college to the NFL. Running backs? Absolutely. Offensive linemen? Totally. Quaterbacks? It's touch and go. But, with all the great teams they've had in the past (way in the past, not even remotely brining up Pitt's present), name me one even halfway decent CB to come out of Pitt. Yes, I realize that the book is still out on Derrelle Revis, but he does play for that shitty-ass Rams defense...
Now, onto the guy that scares me: Vernon Davis. He scares me based solely on potential and the fact that the Steelers defense can't seem to cover a tight end to save their lives. Davis only has 4 catches for 27 yards this year, but he's got great size and freakish athletic ability (why do I feel like I just plummeted into a Viagra commercial). Kellen Winslow always beats up on us (even if his team always loses), ditto Todd Heap, Alge Crumpler last year, the list goes on. If Davis ever realizes his immense potential, he could do a lot of damage to a team on Sundays. Let's just hope it's not this Sunday.
When we have the ball, the 49ers have a pretty good flavor of the 3-4 defense. But, their defensive linemen are terrible (seriously, check the depth chart again) and their linebackers are guys who haven't "quite put it together yet." I've heard the defense is tough, but I really think that's as a result of Clements shutting down Larry Fitzgerald when they played Steelers West, him doing a pretty good job on Torry Holt when they played the Rams, and them racking up six sacks on a thoroughly depleted Rams offensive line (when they lose Orlando Pace, their season is over).
On top of all that, we run the 3-4 defense, so our offensive linemen know what the gap assignments and responsibilities of their defensive linemen are. That gives them an advantage over the 49ers above and beyond the fact that they're better players. We'll be able to run the ball and Fast Wille will probably break a couple of long runs when their inexperienced inside linebackers take bad angles and their inexperienced outside linebackers can't get to the corner in time.
In the passing game, just avoid Clements until it doesn't matter anymore. We have enough weapons that Ben just needs to hit the open guy. They'll blitz enough early that he just needs to recognize it, hit a couple big plays, then put Batch in at about the mid-way part of the third quarter.
This strikes me as one of those games that the Steelers used to find themselves on the wrong side of. The 49ers (and especially coach Mike Nolan) are looking to control the clock, play solid defense, and keep our offense off the field. The only issue is that they'll go three-and-out too often too early, we'll scorch their blitzing linebackers after we spread the defense out, and they'll be in a 17-0 hole in the second quarter that they can't climb out of. Going with the Steelers paralell, the 49ers could climb out if they were playing Cincinnati or Cleveland, but we ain't Cincinnati or Cleveland.
Sidebar: Mike Nolan has fought long and hard to be able to wear a suit on the sidelines during games in order to honor his father. He finally won his battle this year. Check him out on the sidelines in his suit. By the midpoint of the second quarter, he usually looks like some guy's unfortunate kid brother at a wedding. Seriously. By about halftime, it looks like he's thinking, "Man. Why did I have to be an usher? These pants are chafing my balls something serious and I can't breathe with this tie on."
Prediction:
Steelers 27, 49ers 7
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