Tuesday, May 27, 2008

First Two Games

Wow. I was impressed before by the way they were humiliating other teams, other playoff quality teams, but I'm equally impressed, if not moreso, by the way the Red Wings are currently humiliating the Penguins.

They have taken the Pens out of their game, they've spent the whole series on the good side of the blue line, every time it's even strength, they look like they're on the power play and every time they're on the power play, it looks like they're playing five on three.

I know that it's a cop-out for me to say that I don't know much about hockey and that I'm not sure how to fix what's wrong... but, it's also true. On top of everything else, I don't think that there is a way to fix what's wrong.

I think I vastly underestimated Detroit's talent, particularly on defense. I think I vastly underestimated their drive and determination. And, for sure, I underestimated the value of experience playing for the Stanley Cup.

But, truth be told, I still think that they can pull this series out. I know that the math is very, very against them. I know that they haven't been playing well at all, really even playing mildly well. I just think that, as soon as they score their first goal (which, God willing, will happen soon) they'll remember what that feels like, that it feels good, and that they'll do just about anything -- including, ya know, play well -- in order to have that feeling again.

I do know that they need to get more guys in front of the net (on both ends), that they need to stop dumping the puck, and that they need to stop it with the two-line passes. Detroit has been playing things very east-to-west with their puck possession. They haven't tried to pressure the defense with passes, rather they've had two guys running parallel to each other and, whoever the defense bites on, he passes the puck to his teammate. The Pens have had too many passes picked off due to throwing the puck down the ice north-and-south. They have the speed and the talent to run a passing game that goes east-to-west. That's sure to work better than completely changing all the lines after one game.

Hey, they're coming home. They're undefeated at the Arena in the playoffs this season. They're used to the ice, the boards, how the puck plays off of everything. Truth be told, they had a lot of lucky breaks go their way in the first three series. Truth be told, they haven't had any luck (as a matter of fact, they've had negative luck and the Red Wings have been pretty damn lucky) thus far in the Final.

If their luck changes and they figure out how to pressure the defense north-and-south instead of east-to-west, then they're in good shape and there's a chance that they could win the series. It all starts with that first goal. It all starts with that first win. They get a shot at both tomorrow and I think they win. I think they win both at home, actually.

But, then again, what do I know?

Friday, May 23, 2008

Pens-Red Wings

First of all, a little bit about Philly:
  1. Game 4 was, hands down, the bests possible game they could play and they won by one goal. By the time it got to Game 5, they were totally worn out and didn't have anything left, so they got their asses handed to them 6-0. I will say, though, that we got some lucky goals in that game with timely bounces and re-directs. There are those that would say we made our own luck... but I'm not one of those people.
  2. Did anyone else want to see 7-0 final? I sent out a text message when it got to 6-0 that said, "All the Flyers need is a touchdown and an extra point and they win this thing."
  3. The fact that the Pens finally beat the Flyers in a playoff series and that it was the Eastern Conference finals, and that they completely destroyed the Flyers in the elimination game... well, that's just a big pile of awesome.
  4. I watched Game 5 at a bar. Towards the end of the game I said, "Now we probably have to play Detroit. Detroit's tough." A lady at the bar said, "So are we." Touche.
As I've said ad nausea, I don't really know too much about hockey. I have, however, done a good deal of research in the last few weeks and I've watched Detroit play a few times.

I can say that their reputation is deserved. They're one hell of a good team. But, just like the the lady at the bar said, so are the Pens.

Allow me to de-bunk the most popular reasons that people use to guarantee a Red Wings victory:

They had the best record in the NHL this year:

This is true. But, at this point, all that really means is that they get home ice advantage. While home ice advantage is nothing to sneeze at, the Pens are still 4-2 on the road and won at Philly and at MSG, two places where they had not had much success historically.

Everyone started the playoffs at 0-0 and, since then, the Pens have gone 12-2 and the Red Wings have gone 12-4. Not a huge difference, but a difference. I'd also like to mention that Detroit lost two games to Nashville and they're pretty lousy.

And, really, Detroit won the President's Trophy with 115 points and the Pens had 102 points. Over the course of an 82 game season, that's six wins, which is about one win for a football team (so, 13-3 vs. 12-4) and about 11 wins for a baseball team (95-67 vs. 84-78). Okay. Maybe the baseball one is a little more intense, but you see my point.

Detroit has lots of players with lots of experience in the Cup Finals:

Meh. I understand that you can't underestimate playoff experience, but I also think you can't overvalue it.

For the most part, match-ups and talent dictate who wins a game. Spread out over the course of seven games, that becomes even truer. In a single-elimination scenario like the NFL playoffs, it matters more. In a seven game series? I'd say it matters for the first couple of periods of the first game.

After that, the players adjust. After the first game, everyone on the ice has Cup Finals experience, so it's no longer an advantage for anyone.

Additionally, here's another point to prove the "talent and match-ups trump experience" argument. How many World Series did the Yankees lose this century? They were the experienced, veteran team. They should've won those games because they had guys that had been there before. Well, they didn't because of talent and match-ups.

The Red Wings have a lot of talent and depth:

I know they have three great lines, but the Penguins have four great lines. As far as talent is concerned, their two best guys, Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk are on their first line. Our two best guys are on two different lines. So, there's a limit to the amount of total ice time that their two guys see. Plus which, if a great player makes the guys around him better, that spreads out the positive mojo to ten players on two lines as opposed to five players on one line.

I simply can't believe that there's a center on a third line that's better than Jordan Staal, so get out my face with that.

The fourth line is actually very solid. Michel Therrian trusted them enough to have them out on the ice in the third period of a tie game with less than six minutes left... and they delivered. No one on the fourth line is a world-beater, but what team in the league has a fourth line stocked with shockin' bad-ass dudes? (The answer is none of them.)

Detroit has a really great defense and a bunch of exceptional two-way players:

So do the Penguins. As a matter of fact, if the Red Wings somehow have more great two-way players and defensemen, I'd be shocked. Not saying they have fewer, just saying I'd be shocked if they have more.

Hossa, Staal, Malkin, Malone, and Crosby are all fantastic two-way guys. They all take playing defense seriously. Therrian told all his players that they didn't stand a chance in hell if they didn't play defense and the players listened. The Penguins have the best Goals Against Average in the playoffs.

Consider...

  1. They've allowed fewer goals than the Rangers. Yeah. The Rangers team that they played against and scored 16 goals against. The Rangers team that only played two series and ten games.
  2. They've allowed less than half as many goals as the Flyers (54) and 15 fewer than the Stars (41), who were the only teams other than Detroit to play three series.
  3. They've allowed the 9th fewest goals in the playoffs. Of the eight teams in front of them, none of them have played more than seven games (or half as many as the Pens have played).
Detroit is second to the Pens in all of those categories, but it's still impressive.

Red Wings goalie Chris Osgood has won a Cup before:

Okay. Two things on this one:

1. That was a long time ago.
2. He started the playoffs as the back-up to Dominik Hasek.

Everyone keeps waiting for The Flower to wilt, but it hasn't happened. He's been up for every challenge that has been presented to him.

I know I said he was the weakest link going into the Flyers series. Honestly, I believe he's the weakest link going into the Finals. The important thing to remember is that he's the weakest link because everything else is so strong.

Osgood's the weakest link on his team, too. The book on him is that he's been a good goalie on a great team, not the other way around. Both men have made some amazing saves in the 2008 playoffs, but both have let some dumb goals through. How their respective teams react to great saves and dumb goals will determine how this series ends up.

So... what's my point?:

The match-ups look really even. As I said before, in a series this long, experience kinda goes out the window as an advantage and it comes down to match-ups and talent.

Match-ups are even, so it comes down to talent.

With the two most talented players on the planet, plus Staal and Hossa, the talent advantage goes to the Penguins.

I know they're young, I know they weren't supposed to be in this position yet and so, therefore, they shouldn't be ready for it. The thing with this team is that I keep waiting for them to wither, but they keep stepping up. Until they let me down, until they get off the insane hot streak that they're on, I can't pick against them.

After a while, it gets to a point where you're coming up with lame excuses just because you don't want to back the underdog. Well, I want to back the underdog.

Prediction:

Penguins in six.

Thursday, May 15, 2008

Game 4

I don't mean to jinx anyone, but I honestly don't see the Flyers winning tonight.

(However, that last sentence almost read, "...but I honestly don't see the Flyers losing tonight." I wrote that, moved on, and didn't notice until later that I had nearly guaranteed Philly a victory. So I may have reverse jinxed the Pens somehow...)

At any rate, I stand by my earlier statement: I am expecting a sweep, would be surprised if it went to five and would be absolutely shocked if it went to six. A lot of conspiracy theorists have said that the refs will make sure the Flyers win tonight because they made sure of it last night in Dallas.

But, well, I don't subscribe to conspiracy theories, so there you go. With all the weird shit officiating-wise already -- the overturned goal in Game 2, all the phantom hooking calls in Game 3 (which really went for both sides), and just the general refs-don't-seem-to-have-a-consistent-definition-of-what-offsides-means -- I really don't think you can peg anything on the officials. From what I understand, the officiating in hockey has always been weird and will always be weird, so you pretty much have to reconcile yourself with the fact that you can't use that excuse as a crutch and move on.

Really, though, there's no way and I mean NO WAY the Flyers win the series. And, even though they're backed up against a way, staring elimination right in the face, they're at home, and the refs will be helping them... I really don't think they win tonight. I just can't force myself to believe it.

Consider...

Game 1: Had a chance to set the tone early, bring the Pens back down to Earth, and, since they needed to split those first two road games anyway, may as well get it out of the way early. They played their best game and lost by two goals.

Game 2: The Pens had a goal overturned for no reason and still won by two. Once again, the Flyers played hard and still lost hard. Once again, they needed to split the two road games at the beginning of the series to win the series. Once again, they didn't.

Game 3: Playing at home, in front of some of the best and loudest fans in the NHL, facing a must-win situation and needing to win both home games to really make a series out of it, they scored one goal on 18 shots. I'm not saying the Flyers aren't trying. I'm not saying they're a bad team. There's no doubt that the injuries to Timmonen and Coyburn left them at a significant disadvantage in this series. But, playing at home, facing elimination, and needing a win to stay alive.... they only had 18 shots on goal. Eight. Teen.

It's entirely possible that the right mix of desperation, talent, and timely officiating will come together tonight and equate to a Flyers win. It's possible. I just don't think it's going to happen.

Sunday, May 11, 2008

Penguins, the First Two Games

I wrote the following after Game 1 and never got the chance to post it, but was able to save it as a draft, thanks to the fine folks at Blogspot:

"Okay. I'm gonna say it: I don't think the Flyers have a chance in hell. If they keep playing the way they played last night -- and I'm not saying, "Gee, if they keep scoring two goals a game and giving up four goals a game, they're gonna lose the series," -- the Penguins are going to sweep them.

As a matter of fact, I think it's possible that Philly wins one game and pushes this to being a five game series, but I don't think a six game series is at all possible.
Here's what I saw last night: Philly skated as hard as they could, tried as hard as they could, sold out on offense completely, leaving too many guys in front of the net to make the most of their scoring chances and leaving themselves vulnerable in transition, they tried to kill every Penguin on the ice every time they hit one, and they took a lot of chances that either paid off or didn't.

They gave it their all and they still lost by two goals."

I really have to say that I think the Pens win in four... five, max. That feeling was only re-inforced by their performance tonight.

We overcame an overturned goal and a non-call on delay of game late in the third period... and still won by two goals. The Flyers got favorable calls, got a goal against overturned wrongly... and still lost by two goals.

That's it. I'm tired of being a good guy. The Flyers are overmatched and they're going to lose. And they're going to lose badly. In five games, if not four. I will be absolutely SHOCKED if this series goes to six games. The Flyers don't have it. The Pens do. The Flyers will lose.

Monday, May 05, 2008

Penguins Advance

I have to admit that, even when they entered the playoffs as the #2 seed, I really thought they'd have been eliminated by now. I'm glad that they haven't been and that they've been kicking the shit out of everyone in sight, but I'm definitely worried about the fact that we're playing the Flyers.

A few points, in no particular order:
  1. I sure hope Hossa keeps playing like this. He's a hell of a player and I'm glad I came to his defense before. It makes me look smart, even though I have no idea what I'm talking about.
  2. I assumed that we looked good on defense just because the Senators were playing with half an offense. As it turns out, we look good on defense because we are good on defense. Gill and Ruutu made life a living hell for Jagr yesterday. That was awesome. The Rangers had one shot in four power play attempts and were held without a shot at all for about 15 minutes in the second period. Fifteen minutes. No shots. I don't care how crappy you are on offense, you don't have that kind of a streak of futility unless the other team's playing some damn-fine defense.
  3. So, we've got Malkin, Crosby and Hossa. They're the superstars. We've got high-quality depth guys like Staal, Sykora, Malone, and Kennedy. We've got high-quality defensemen like Ruutu and Gill. Great enforcers/role players like Laroque and Roberts. Defense has stepped up, special teams has stepped up BIG TIME -- the Rangers were 3 of 25 on the power play in the series and one of those goals was the empty net goal in Game 4 -- and the offense speaks for itself. Is it possible that goaltending is our weak link? Not saying anything bad about The Flower, I'm just saying that he seems like the worst player on a great team. And, even when you're as talented as the Penguins, when your potential worst player is your goalie, that's bad. He only faced 22 shots last game and he let two of those through. I know I'm probably talking out of my ass here, but that concerns me.
  4. The other thing that concerns me is that we're playing the Flyers. The good news is that everyone that thinks we tanked intentionally at the end of the season to play the Senators can now drink a tall, frosty glass of STFU because we ended up playing Philly anyway. The bad news is that we have to play the Flyers. This is seriously like playing the hated Ravens (I actually saw an article that referred to the Flyers as "the hated Flyers" earlier today) in the AFC Championship game. Except the Flyers have had way more success against the Penguins in the post season than the hated Ravens have against the Steelers. And the Flyers are usually the more physical team. And they're a bunch of thugs. I have a feeling that they're going to put a hit out on Crosby. For the record, I am not paranoid about this. When I was in Canada, one of the locals mentioned that Philly appeared to be sending scrubs out onto the ice with intent to injure Crosby. This dude was 1) from Canada, so he's an expert, 2) a Senators fan during the Pittsburgh-Ottawa series, so he had every reason to think Crosby was getting whatever he deserved and 3) he volunteered this information -- I didn't have to prompt him with, "Do you think Philly was trying to slice off Sid's testicles in the last game of the season?" If we pulled players or looked like we were just trying to get the hell out of there with everyone healthy, well, that's really what we were trying to do. And we succeeded.
  5. Hockey is definitely the red-headed step-child of all sports as far as the media is concerned. As of yesterday at about 5 p.m., the match-ups for the Eastern Conference Finals were set. There still isn't any, "Here's what to expect in the Conference Finals," coverage almost 24 hours later. Now, before you say, "Oh, but the first game is a week away and it hasn't been that long since the game yesterday," bear in mind that the NFL playoff coverage would've been posted for the next game by now. Once the pairings were finalized, the content would've been up by noon today. At the latest. There isn't even a Flyers/Penguins page on ESPN's site and they usually have shit like that up within 15 minutes of the match-up being decided. I've said it before and I'll say it again: The content that they put up there (ESPN.com) is always high quality and Scott Burnside is a hell of a writer and analyst. But, if they're serious about hockey and about drawing people to their site, they need to throw out more content and they need to throw it out earlier. Sure, that makes my insights less timely and less valuable, but what's lost in the grand scheme of things? If hockey's going to come back in this country, it's not going to be because of the efforts of Steelers N At. It's going to be because TV and the major news Web sites are pushing content, making things accessible, and explaining everything to everyone so that they can understand it.
All that having been said, here's my FEARLESS prediction for the Pens/Flyers series...

I think we're way more talented, way more balanced, and The Flower is still a very good goalie. If he's our weakest link, then I like where we're at.

However, where we're at is a series against the Philadelphia Flyers. I think you throw out talent, records, how these teams got here, and you just focus on who is angrier and who wants it more. I think that's still the Penguins, but it's gonna be rough. Really, really rough.

Penguins in 6.

Friday, May 02, 2008

Also...

With the 7-0 start, I was compelled to look up whether or not a team has ever gone 16-0 to win the Stanley Cup. That has never happened.

The closest team was the 1987-88 Edmonton Oilers, who went 16-2 to win the Cup.

The 1991-92 Pens went 16-5, by the way. They won their last 11.

Wow. Now that's magical.

Don't Panic

The Penguins lost, Evgeni Malkin executed one of the worst penalty shots in the history of bad penalty shots, and we got shut out.

It was weird for me, because the last time the Pens lost a playoff game was over a year ago. And, in that series, you never felt as though there was any hope. Last night, even though they were down 2-0 and hadn't had that many great chances -- although I have no idea how Staal's shot didn't go in; if he shot the puck ten times, it would've gone in the other nine times... it was actually harder to make the puck do what it did than just send it home -- I really thought they were going to pull it out.

I actually didn't give up on the idea until the empty net goal. I seriously believed they could still come back when there was less than two minutes left and they were short-handed.

You know what that means? That means that the Penguins are very, very good. I'm a bandwagon fan and I had that much faith, I was that willing to sit there and watch, confident that the Pens would come back even though logic said otherwise. You know those fuckers that get box seats at a Pirates game, show up midway through the fourth inning, then leave in the top of the eighth? I'm not that bad, partly because people like that piss me off and I don't want to be that way, partly because it's playoff hockey, but I'm a bandwagon fan. And I embrace that. The point is this: I kept watching and kept cheering last night because, not only did I believe that they were going to come back, but I was so sure that they were that I didn't want to be the guy that left with five minutes remaining that missed the awesome comeback and ensuing overtime victory.

That's a magical team right there. And, magical teams like that don't blow four games in a row. It just doesn't happen. We're back at home on Sunday and, even if we don't win tomorrow, I had the Pens in six. So there you go.