Pro Bowl

As I'm writing this the Pro Bowl has started. It's supposed to be all the best players in the league playing against each other, but both Super Bowl teams pulled their entrants, so that's 14 guys.

But, it gives guys like Chris Johnson (who just had a great run), Darrelle Revis, and Adrian Peterson a chance to show how much better they are than everyone else. The rules are changed, the defense is kind of handicapped, but no one wants to look like an idiot even if no one cares about the final score. You're still getting about an 80% effort from some of the best players in the league, so that's better than a 100% effort from any random group of guys on an NFL team.

I think that moving the game to the week before the Super Bowl will actually help it in the long term, even if no one's watching tonight. They made it at a bad time and people are still adjusting to the fact that it's not the week after the Super Bowl, but, ultimately, it all comes down to the product on the field. This game will serve as a nice primer for the Super Bowl and gives everyone a chance to watch some actual football while they're waiting for the game they really want to see.

And, since there's a ton of substitutions, it gives a lot of guys the opportunity to play in the game. Since it's their first shot -- 30 guys in the line-up tonight are playing in their first Pro Bowl -- they'll play harder, because they want everyone in the league, the fans, and their front office to take notice of what they can do against the best the league has to offer. In previous years, the game was usually a letdown after the Super Bowl, especially since so many recent Super Bowls have been such great games. Fans were expecting something of that level and the Pro Bowl ultimately was a disappointment.

That's why this needs to be a good, close game with lots of big plays and excitement. If people who didn't watch the game hear the re-caps and find out what they missed, they'll tune in next year. The NFL has enough money in the bank to shuffle the deck just so they have something to do with their hands.

As always, the compelling story lines, competition, and excitement of the game is on the shoulders of the players. If they deliver, this will be a good move. If they don't, it won't. I'm sure that Honolulu will take the NFL back if they come calling, so this was a calculated risk by Kaiser Goodell. And I think it pays off, because the players will make sure that the product on the field is high quality.

A few thoughts from the Championship games:

1. Wow. I did not think the Colts had it in them to put a 30-spot on the Jets. That's the best defense of 2009 and Indianapolis shredded them for 500 total yards. They're a tough, dangerous team.
2. Everyone seems surprised that Brett Favre through a crazy, across-his-body, across-the-formation pass that got intercepted. Hey, that's how he rolls. In 2003, he would've had enough to complete that pass. That's the issue with old quarterbacks. The mind is still nimble, but the body is weak. That's why you don't see a lot of 40 year old quarterbacks in the Super Bowl. At some point, when you make a throw that your arm can't cash, it catches up with you. And it caught up with Favre. He was a crazy, talented, egotistical quarterback when the Vikings signed him and he was a crazy, talented, egotistical quarterback in the Championship game. Minnesota knew he was a snake when they took him in, so why were they surprised when it bit them? He had a tremendous season and brought them within one game of the Super Bowl, but he can only take them so far.
3. The Saints lucked out. They need to play much sharper to beat the Colts.
4. The line on the Super Bowl opened at 4. It's now at 5.5. That's not a good sign for New Orleans.
5. But, the Saints are a very talented and explosive team. They have a higher ceiling than the Colts, but a lower floor. If they come out hot, they can pull off an upset. They just need to take advantage of their immense potential.
   

Championship Games

If I had managed to post anything for the Divisional round, I would have picked all the home teams. And I would have gone 3-1. All I have to defend myself is a series of text messages that I sent my brother, so I think I'll just move on.

Onto this weekend's action...

Jets at Colts:

For the first time in a while, the AFC Championship game is the early game. I say "early" but it's being played at 3 p.m. Eastern, so what does early mean, really?

I think that's because the TV folks think that this is going to be a less entertaining game than the late game. They're probably right, because it's going to be lower scoring, but I don't think it's going to be less entertaining.

The Jets have the number one defense in terms of scoring defense, pass defense, and total yards. You know who else represented the AFC in the conference championship game with similar credentials in recent memory? That's right! It was your 2008 Pittsburgh Steelers. They had an historically great defense and moved past the hated Ravens to win the AFC and advance to Super Bowl XLIII (which we won, btw, in case I didn't mention that previously).

So... since the current Jets squad mirrors last year's Steelers and I picked the Colts to lose the AFC Championship game previously, that means that New York will win, right?

Well, no.

The Steelers beat the hated Ravens and Joe Flacco in the conference championship last year. The Jets face the Colts and Peyton Manning. Now, I understand if you hate his commercial success and the fact that, prior to 2006, he couldn't win the big game, but you have to admit that Manning is among the top five quarterbacks of all time. All year, he has been automatic in the two minute offense, leading Indianapolis to seven victories in the fourth quarter.

I think this will be a tight game. I think the Jets may lead in the fourth quarter. I think that the eight point line is ridiculous given the talent that New York has. But, I also think that Manning has the ball last. And, regardless of whether he's protecting a three point lead or trying to overcome a four point deficit, he gets the job done.

I mentioned in the NFC preview that the Vikings have the two most explosive players in the bracket. Well, Manning in the two minute offense is the single biggest weapon. And the Colts will use it. With the game on the line.

It will be close, it won't be pretty, but the Colts will make it rain.

Colts 20, Jets 17

Vikings at Saints:

It's true that the Vikings have the two most explosive players. It's true that Sidney Rice finally showed his tremendous potential against the Cowboys. It's true that they have a big time red zone threat in tight end Visanthe Shiancoe. It's true that all-world pass rusher Jared Allen will face off against some dude named Jermon Bushrod.

Still... I made the prediction and I'll stick by it. The city of New Orleans has been through too much this century. They've been through too much in following their traditionally moribund franchise. The players and the fans understand that they need to win one game in the Superdome -- which only a few years back housed refugees that will be at the game -- to advance to the Super Bowl. The Superdome is an old-school, tight environment where the energy of the fans can influence and inspire the players.

Sean Payton has tricks up his sleeve that he hasn't even thought of yet. Drew Brees is one of the greatest quarterbacks in the league. They have their fair share of explosive players in Reggie Bush, Marques Colston, Jeremy Shockey, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, and Pierre Thomas.

They have enough on defense so long as the crowd stays behind them, they get off to a fast start, and my other prediction holds true.

The Saints can still win if they don't get off to a hot start so long as Brad Childress continues to yield to Brett Favre. The New Orleans run defense SUCKS. If the Vikings decide to pin their hopes to Adrian Peterson and the Saints don't get off to a fast start, then Peterson will take over the game -- and the crowd, which is a huge part of this game -- with hard runs and long gains.

The thing is that I don't think Chilly has it in him. I think he yields. I think the Saints start fast and finish with enough against an aging quarterback whose flesh is willing, but whose body is weak.

I know that both number one seeds haven't advanced to the Super Bowl since 1836, but I can't change the way I feel...

Saints 38, Vikings 27

Who would win a Saints-Colts Super Bowl? Well, you'll just have to wait and see.

NFC Playoff Preview

I have had a very difficult time trying to handicap the 2009 NFC playoffs for one, simple reason. Well, two simple reasons. The first is that I don't follow the NFC as closely as I do the AFC, so it's more difficult for me to identify key matchups and to figure out which team would get the best of those matchups even if I could identify them.

For my Playoff Bracket Challenge last season, I correctly predicted every game in the AFC bracket, but I only picked two games correctly in the NFC bracket. So, all predictions are correct or your money back.

The second simple reason is that I have no idea who will win the Philly-Dallas game. No idea whatsoever. The winner of that game (in my mind) determines the way the rest of the bracket goes. Let me start with that game, then.

Eagles at Cowboys:

On the one hand, the Cowboys are the third seed, are at home, have considerably more talent across their line-up, beat the Eagles twice in the regular season, and are free from the attention whoring distractions of Terrell Owens.

On the other hand, Philly has the same record as Dallas, the Cowboys are only 6-2 at home, Tony Romo has been a choke artist in December and January, it's tough to beat a team three times in a season, and they will never be free from the attention whoring distractions of Jerry Jones.

On the other other hand, the Eagles choked away the number three seed by losing in Dallas Stadium just one week ago, they lost to the Raiders, and they got smoked by the Saints in Week 2, so it doesn't matter if they win or not because they will travel to New Orleans the next week and just get crushed anyway.

On the other other other hand, Andy Reid is 10-7 in the postseason and Wade Phillips is 0-4. Donovan McNabb is 9-6 in the postseason and Tony Romo is 0-2. So, do you go with the known quantity or do you say that, "Hey, you can't lose them all!"? Since 1996, we have been able to count on the Eagles to win a couple playoff games, then not win the Super Bowl. Since 1996, we have not seen the Cowboys win a playoff game. At all. Period.

The Eagles have the third most talented and explosive player in the NFC side of the bracket in DeSean Jackson and Dallas has neither of the first two, but they do have Miles Austin and Felix Jones and Marion Barber and Jason Witten... and it looks like they just have too many horses. And this round doesn't come down to records or homefield advantage it comes down to talent. And the Cowboys have more of that than the Eagles.

You know who says it's tough to beat a team three times in one season? Teams that have already lost the first two games. We beat the hated Ravens three times in 2001 and 2008 and the Browns in 1995. I don't want to hear that. I would have been crapping my pants if we had to face the Bengals in the first round of the playoffs (had we actually, ya know, made the playoffs) because they already beat us twice and there was no empirical evidence that we would be able to beat them during the course of the 2009 regular or post season.

Also, my bracket makes a lot more sense if they win this game, so I'm picking Dallas.

Green Bay at Steelers West:

After the Packers lost to the Steelers in Week 15, I was actually most of the way to talking myself into believing that the Cardinals could advance to the Super Bowl again.

1. They were discovering their running game finally.
2. Kurt Warner was starting to get in rhythm.
3. They were getting healthy.
4. No one was talking about them and they suddenly could possibly end up as the second seed since New Orleans and Minnesota were taking on a ton of water.

Then the Vikings turned things around the last week and Arizona got blown out by Green Bay, the Cardinals barely snuck by Detroit, and the Rams game would have been closer if St. Louis wasn't in dogged pursuit of the first overall pick.

And, the last game of the season, the Cardinals weren't trying to win but they still suffered some costly injuries. That's just a bad sign. The Warner-is-retiring rumors are swirling and people are starting to talk about Arizona, so they no longer have the "us against the world" thing going for them. People are talking a lot about how no one is talking the Cardinals. And that's kind of like a triple negative, so it's still bad.

Even if Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Anquan Boldin play, they'll still be limited. And Steelers West will need all the healthy talent they can must to win this game.

The Packers have a phenomenal offense and have one of the best passing games in the NFL.

Dom Capers was finally able to get everyone on the same page and their defense is taking full advantage of all the talent they have in the back seven.

Green Bay's a dangerous team and they finished 11-5. They would have been seeded higher if Minnesota wasn't in their division. Every team in the bracket is at least 10-6, so this is a pretty loaded bracket with a lot of great teams, and it just so happens that the dangerous Packers play a wounded Cardinals team that also happens to be the only NFC representative that didn't win 11 games.

Green Bay already had their fluky game this season. They lost 37-36 to the Steelers in Week 15 in one of the craziest, most entertaining games I've ever seen. If the Steelers had made the playoffs, NFL Films would highlight that game as the game that turned their season around. Since the Steelers didn't make the playoffs, that's going to have to be the game that NFL Films highlights as turning Green Bay's season around, because it was too awesome not to be the focus of something. After losing on the last play of a game like that to the reeling Super Bowl champions, your season can go one of two ways: You can turn things around and work harder, or you can give up.

The Packers turned things around, worked harder, crushed the Seahawks and Cardinals in back-to-back weeks, and they're playing without any fear. That means that they won't bow down to the defending conference champs or the one or two seed any more than they did to the defending Super Bowl champs (the Steelers, btw). They also have scored 164 more points than their opponents, which is second in the league in terms of point differential. They're a great team, they just happen to be the fifth seed.

Cowboys at Vikings:

Chris Johnson was the single most unstoppable force in all of fantasy football this year. I was in four leagues and the guy that had Johnson won three of those leagues and finished third in points in the fourth (so it could be argued that he should have won he was just unlucky). The point there is that Johnson was going to get his points and, if you were in a single-elimination tournament with him on your side, the odds favored you winning.

Adrian Peterson is the single most unstoppable force in real football. If he gets enough touches, he'll get his yards and he'll get his points. Every time he touches the ball, the opposing team's fan base holds their breath. He could be bottled up one moment and running over William Gay and sprinting down the sidelines the next. The more times he touches the ball, the more inevitable the opposing team's destruction becomes. He's the best, most explosive player in this bracket, which is a huge advantage for the Vikings.

I mentioned before that DeSean Jackson is the third-most talented and explosive player in the bracket. Percy Harvin is number two and he also plays for the Vikings. That means that Minnesota has the two best players in the AFC bracket. That's like if you had Aaron Rodger and Chris Johnson on your fantasy team. One of the guys in one of my leagues did and he cut a path of destruction all the way through the regular season and playoffs to a championship.

The Vikings have that kind of power. They have two guys on their team that can get the ball in their hands at any time -- Peterson has improved in the passing game and Harvin has been used in the return game, passing game, and running game and excelled in all three of those areas in college -- and make a play that makes you scream, "OH MY GOD HOW DID HE DO THAT HE... OH MY GOD!" And they have Sidney Rice, who quietly gained over 1,300 yards receiving this season to go along with an almost 16 yard per catch average and eight touchdowns. When they get in the red zone, they can get the ball to Rice, Peterson, Harvin, or Visanthe Shiancoe who caught 11 touchdown passes this season.

They have a playmaker at every level of the defense -- Jared Allen and the Williamses on the defensive line, Chad Greenway at linebacker, and Antoine Winfield in the secondary -- and are opportunistic enough to make another team pay for a mistake and good enough to keep the other team's scoring to a minimum.

They are the most complete team left in the league, in either conference. And that's that. Right? No loose ends or anything.

Oh yeah! Brett Favre.

You will meet few people that like Favre less than I do or that have a lower opinion of Favre than I do. But, the big knock on Favre is that his production declined severely towards the end of 2007 and 2008. His last five games of 2007, he had quarterback ratings of 80.6, 40.2, 143.7, 137.6, and 70.7. Yes, he was horrid in the NFC Championship game that year, but he did score 20 points in sub-zero weather conditions, which is six points more than the greatest offense in the history of the NFL scored against that same Giants defense in a dome. In 2007, the Favre-lead Packers finished 13-3 and went to the conference championship. In 2008, the Rodgers-lead Packers finished 6-10 and did not. Yes, Favre sucked hard in 2008, especially late, throwing 30 interceptions and finishing with a 81 quarterback rating. But, Mark Sanchez finished with a 63 quarterback rating in 2009 and threw 20 interceptions. He's 18 years younger than Favre, so maybe that's why his body held up. Favre had five bad games at the end of 2008, posting quarterback ratings of 60.9, 60.8, 61.4, 48.7, and 45.1... but three of those marks are three points or less lower than what Sanchize finished the season with in terms of quarterback rating.

The 2008 Jets finished 9-7 and missed the playoffs. The 2009 Jets finished 9-7 and made the playoffs. Same record, just different circumstances.

When I came into this, I wanted to tear down Favre as well, but the data doesn't support it. Even taking away the past, he's got two playoff games in a dome and the Super Bowl is in Miami. He has a solid defense and the two most explosive offensive players in the bracket on his team. He is second in the league in quarterback rating (107.2) and has thrown 33 touchdowns and only seven interceptions. He's on a roll, the deck is stacked in his favor. That's not my fault.

Packers at Saints:

Here's where my bracket and predictions could fall apart.

If the Eagles beat the Cowboys, then they travel to New Orleans no matter what happens in the Arizona-Green Bay game. I believe that the Vikings can beat either the Cardinals or the Packers -- regardless of which one wins -- but I also believe that the Saints will beat the snot out of Philly. I do not believe that Minnesota can beat New Orleans in the NFC Championship game.

I believe that the Packers can beat the Saints.

Here's how it works...

The Saints deploy a lot of different looks and exotic formations on offense and the Packers have a lot of different looks and exotic formations on defense. The Vikings have one formation and zero exotic looks on defense. New Orleans head coach Sean Payton is exceptionally gifted at being able to recognize the tendencies of a defense. If you have one formation and zero exotic looks he will pick you apart faster than a Marine with an M-16. Capers will not be able to completely stump Payton, but he will be able to slow Payton down.

That will give the Packers enough time to expose the Saints defense. For the first 13 games, the New Orleans defense was pressure-based and opportunistic. They scored on fumble and interception returns and were finally the complement that the Saints offense was looking for. Then the bounces stopped going their way and their old guys started to wear down. It happened to the Steelers this year. There are only so many game-breaking plays you can make on skill alone. Eventually your luck runs out and you're left with what you have.

Now, the Saints don't have a bad defense, they're just not good enough to stop Green Bay. The Packers will score more than they let up and they will go Minnesota for Favre Bowl III.

BUT, this is the game the Saints need to win to make it to the Super Bowl. If the Vikings have to come to New Orleans and the players and fans know that all they need is one win, one game to send this sad sack franchise that has been through hell and back all the way to the promised land... they'll make it happen. They'll shred the Minnesota defense. They'll make so much noise and the players will hit so hard that the stars for the Vikings' ears will bleed. There is no way that the players, the City of New Orleans, and the PR Department for the NFL lets the Saints lose an NFC Championship game in the Big Easy. No. Way.

Packers at Vikings:

This is already a ponderously long entry, so I'll cut to the chase...

1. Remember when I said the Vikings were the best, most talented team in the bracket? And they're at home in a dome to protect Favre from the elements? That.
2. Remember that thing about beating a team three times in one year? That. The Vikings swept the Packers in division play in the regular season.

The Packers have some momentum. They're a great team. They have some mojo going for them. But, really, no matter how much of a roll a team is on, there's no way that a division rival lets them come into their stadium and beat them. Sure, all the rest of the stuff about talent and beating a team three times... but there's no way. There's too much hate in the NFC North.

I just can't see the Vikings losing as long as they play the NFC Championship game in Minnesota.

That means a Vikings-Chargers Super Bowl.

San Diego is balanced and they have a lot of talent, but they don't have the balance, the talent, or the Super Bowl experience of the Minnesota Vikings.

NFC Champion:
Minnesota Vikings

Super Bowl Champion:
Minnesota Vikings

AFC Playoff Preview

A few housecleaning items before I get to my playoff picks for the AFC...

1. There are a lot of people calling for Bruce Arians to be fired. Mike Tomlin says they're not going to have any knee-jerk reactions. I hope not. Listen, the offense is not the issue. How can you fire a guy when we had a 4,000 yard passer, two 1,000 yard receivers, a killer deep threat in Mike Wallace, and a 1,000 yard rusher? And why would we pay Roethlisberger $100 million only to have him hand off. He made some bad decisions, yes. But, if you look at the season as a whole, the defense choked and the coverage units were terrible. And that, among other reasons, is why the Steelers finished 9-7 and blew games to the Chiefs, Browns, and Raiders. We just weren't prepared for the inspired performance that Cleveland gave us and we adjusted badly. So, pin that one on the offense. How many games did the defense give up? I am NOT suggesting to fire Dick LeBeau. Even putting the words "fire" and "LeBeau" in the same sentence make me feel weird. I am suggesting something else...
2. Bobby April just got fired as the special teams coach of the Bills. You may remember April as the greatest special teams coach this side of... Marv Levy? He's great. He used to be the special teams coach of the Steelers and we let him go. We need him back. Stat.
3. Tom Brady did not deserve to win Comeback Player of the Year. I understand that he came back from a catastrophic knee injury, but his job was never up for grabs. All he had to do was have surgery, get protected by a great offensive line that never gets called for holding, and throw the ball to Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Where's the feel-good story there? Also, the Patriots were 11-5 in 2008 without him and 10-6 in 2009 with him. So... where's the benefit of having Tom Terrific behind center? Cadillac Williams was almost out of football last year, had two big knee injuries, lost his starting job to Derrick Ward, claimed it back, re-injured his knee so he had a comeback in a comeback year, and ended up emerging as the starter, leading the team in rushing with 829 yards, and he did it all while playing for Tampa, which was one of the worst teams in the league with a rookie quarterback and a crappy offensive line. So, he plays for a bad team. That should be held against him?

Onto the predictions.

Jets at Bengals:

The Jets destroyed the Bengals 37-0 in the last game of the regular season, but I don't think they have a repeat performance in them. Primarily, I don't trust Mark Sanchez. The guy is a rookie and he is not a good player. He has shown some chops at certain points, but he has been mostly dreadful.

The Bengals have a great defense and they run the ball well. The Jets have a great defense and they run the ball well. Neither team scores a lot of points, neither team lets up a lot of points. If you like punts, this is the game for you. I think it is going to be boring and it is going to come down to the fourth quarter.

That means it comes down to quarterback play. I don't trust Sanchez. I do trust Carson Palmer. The Bengals were clutch in the last quarter for most of this season. Marvin Lewis and this team need to find their mojo back and I think they do it at home in the playoffs. Sanchez won't be ready, the Bengals will be ready. I am tired of doubting Cincinnati and picking against them, so I won't do it anymore. When they advance to the next round, all bets are off. For the Wild Card round, they have enough to beat New York and their rookie quarterback.

Hated Ravens at Patriots:

Welker is out, the hated Ravens were better than their record, and they almost beat New England in Foxboro earlier this season. It's damn-near impossible to bet against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick at home in the postseason, but I'm going to do it.

I think Joe Flacco and his unibrow are ready to win this game. They advanced to the AFC Championship game last season as the sixth seed. They're a confident team and, as much as I hate them and their defense of bastards, I respect them. I think they shut down Randy Moss and force Julian Edelman, Kevin Faulk, and Fred Taylor to beat them.

I think they make just enough plays to win and they advance to Indianapolis. There's always an upset in the first round of the playoffs and I think this is it because I don't trust Sanchez to get it done against the Bengals. But I do trust Flacco and John Harbaugh to get it done against the fading dynasty of the Patriots.

Bengals at Chargers:

I hate brackets that are all chalk, but I can't see a team beating either San Diego or Indianapolis at home in the Divisional Round (so that kinda makes reading my next prediction moot). Even if New England beats Baltimore, they're not beating the Chargers. The Chargers have the Patriots number and they match up too well against New England.

They have an explosive offense and they do well enough on defense that no one notices that their defense isn't that great. Philip Rivers has been destroying defenses all season and you can never count this team out because they can put up points in a hurry. Remember, they scored 21 points on the Steelers and turned a 28-0 laugher into a sphincter-puckering 38-28 game. They have weapons on top of weapons. Darren Sproles backs up the still relevant LaDanian Tomlinson.

Norv Turner is an excellent play caller and he has enough talent to advance. This time of year, it comes down to talent. And the Chargers have more of that than anyone else.

Hated Ravens at Colts:

You read the previous entry, right?

Well, Peyton Manning has had Baltimore's number since the Mayflower trucks, so he's not losing to them. And they're not doing a one-and-done in the playoffs this year. Especially against a sixth seed. Even if they play the Jets or Bengals, those teams don't have the horses to keep up with the Colts (get it?), so Indy wins in that eventuality. That sets up an AFC Championship game between the one seed and the two seed.

Chargers at Colts:

The Chargers, more than any team owns any other team, own the Indianapolis Colts. They have too many weapons. Their corners match up well against the Indianapolis receivers. Norv Turner doesn't have to worry about clock management, he just needs to worry about calling plays.

They went into Indy and beat the second-seeded Colts in 2007 even though they had Billy Joe Tolliver at quarterback and Sproles at tailback. They were 8-8 in 2008 and beat Indianapolis in overtime even though the Colts were 12-4 and had won nine straight.

Only one thing scares me about picking the Chargers over the Colts. And that's Peyton Manning. He has the Eye of the Tiger. Indianapolis has won seven games this season when trailing in the fourth quarter. He is automatic in the two minute offense. He made Bill Belichick go for it on fourth and two from his own 29 because Belichick knew that he couldn't stop Manning on the last possession and he wanted to play keep-away.

BUT, the reason the Chargers have positively owned the Colts is because Turner is too dumb/confident/talented a play caller to let Manning phase him. If you don't let Manning in your head, he can't get in.

At least that's what I keep telling myself. Hello? Peyton? No. I already cut that meat.

AFC Champion:
San Diego Chargers

Playoffs or Bust

First off, Happy New Year!

Second off, I have tried to look at the playoff scenarios and make sense of them, but I have not had much success.

The one thing I know for sure is that the Steelers need to win. I think they can. I know my predictions have been far from perfect (they've sucked), but I don't think that a Miami team with nothing to play for beats us.

The only thing the Dolphins can do is run the ball and we've been good at stopping the run when we haven't played Ray Rice. The Wildcat formation is an issue, but that can be stopped by discipline, speed, and pursuit. And we have all that.

They don't have any deep threats or any guys on offense that can kill you -- in all fairness, neither did the Chiefs or Raiders, but I digress -- so I don't think they can do anything to break the game wide open.

Their defense is pretty bland and not overly talented and I think we match up well against them. We should be able to score points, but that's given with the caveat that the offense has been horridly inconsistent this season, so who the hell knows.

Ted Ginn, Jr is the guy that scares me. He returns kickoffs for them and we'd had serious issues in kick coverage. So, he could break the game open, but I think we take care of business.

That means we finish 9-7 and need some help.

So...

There are four other teams that have a chance to finish 9-7. Ultimately, we need all of them to lose. That would make things easier. But, the issue is that they play either bad teams or good teams that have nothing to play for. And we saw how a good team that has nothing to play for this late in the season tends to respond (see: Jets at Colts, Week 16).

Jets play at home against Cincinnati
Houston plays at home against New England
Hated Ravens are on the road against Oakland
Broncos are at home against the Chiefs

The Houston-New England game is at 1 p.m. Eastern, same as our game. Denver-KC and Baltimore-Oakland are both at 4:15. The Jets and Bengals play on Sunday night at 8:20.

Houston always finishes 8-8. They're known for it. So, I would think they'd lose to the Patriots, but I can't be sure. Belichick has been super secretive this week regarding whether or not he'll play his starters. Ultimately, since the #1 and #2 seeds are out of play, it doesn't matter if you finish as the #3 or #4 (New England is currently #3), because you still have to play the first week of the playoffs and you still get a home game, where the Patriots are 8-0.

That means that they're 2-5 on the road and they're on the road on Sunday. I think Belichick jumps out to an early lead, tries to see what happens, and plays a mostly vanilla gameplan in order to not give too much away for the next week. That means Houston -- in a do-or-die situation against a team that could care less -- wins this game.

I think the hated Ravens get it done against the Raiders, but Oakland has been playing the role of spoiler all season, so you never know. I would LOVE for Baltimore to lose, I just don't think it happens.

I think Denver chokes away the finale against the Chiefs. They just have too much choke in them, too much turmoil (Brandon Marshall is being benched again because he did something stupid), and too much Kyle Orton.

I think Cincy reviews the action of the day, realizes that they'll be the number three seed if they win, and goes out trying to win the game. And I think they win.

That means Jets and Broncos lose, hated Ravens and Texans win. I think that means we get bounced from the playoffs, but I really have no idea. Basically, we need to win and wait. If we hadn't honked away games against the Chiefs, Raiders, and Browns, we'd be in a better position, but that's where we are now.

But... my predictions have sucked this year, so maybe that means the Steelers make it. I don't know. The one thing that I do know is that we have a shot if we do make it.

After all, the last time the Bengals were the third seed, Indy was the first seed, and an AFC West team was the second seed, it worked out pretty well for us. We won Super Bowl XL that year, in case I hadn't mentioned it.

Prediction:
Steelers 24, Dolphins 13