For my Playoff Bracket Challenge last season, I correctly predicted every game in the AFC bracket, but I only picked two games correctly in the NFC bracket. So, all predictions are correct or your money back.
The second simple reason is that I have no idea who will win the Philly-Dallas game. No idea whatsoever. The winner of that game (in my mind) determines the way the rest of the bracket goes. Let me start with that game, then.
Eagles at Cowboys:
On the one hand, the Cowboys are the third seed, are at home, have considerably more talent across their line-up, beat the Eagles twice in the regular season, and are free from the attention whoring distractions of Terrell Owens.
On the other hand, Philly has the same record as Dallas, the Cowboys are only 6-2 at home, Tony Romo has been a choke artist in December and January, it's tough to beat a team three times in a season, and they will never be free from the attention whoring distractions of Jerry Jones.
On the other other hand, the Eagles choked away the number three seed by losing in Dallas Stadium just one week ago, they lost to the Raiders, and they got smoked by the Saints in Week 2, so it doesn't matter if they win or not because they will travel to New Orleans the next week and just get crushed anyway.
On the other other other hand, Andy Reid is 10-7 in the postseason and Wade Phillips is 0-4. Donovan McNabb is 9-6 in the postseason and Tony Romo is 0-2. So, do you go with the known quantity or do you say that, "Hey, you can't lose them all!"? Since 1996, we have been able to count on the Eagles to win a couple playoff games, then not win the Super Bowl. Since 1996, we have not seen the Cowboys win a playoff game. At all. Period.
The Eagles have the third most talented and explosive player in the NFC side of the bracket in DeSean Jackson and Dallas has neither of the first two, but they do have Miles Austin and Felix Jones and Marion Barber and Jason Witten... and it looks like they just have too many horses. And this round doesn't come down to records or homefield advantage it comes down to talent. And the Cowboys have more of that than the Eagles.
You know who says it's tough to beat a team three times in one season? Teams that have already lost the first two games. We beat the hated Ravens three times in 2001 and 2008 and the Browns in 1995. I don't want to hear that. I would have been crapping my pants if we had to face the Bengals in the first round of the playoffs (had we actually, ya know, made the playoffs) because they already beat us twice and there was no empirical evidence that we would be able to beat them during the course of the 2009 regular or post season.
Also, my bracket makes a lot more sense if they win this game, so I'm picking Dallas.
Green Bay at Steelers West:
After the Packers lost to the Steelers in Week 15, I was actually most of the way to talking myself into believing that the Cardinals could advance to the Super Bowl again.
- They were discovering their running game finally.
- Kurt Warner was starting to get in rhythm.
- They were getting healthy.
- No one was talking about them and they suddenly could possibly end up as the second seed since New Orleans and Minnesota were taking on a ton of water.
And, the last game of the season, the Cardinals weren't trying to win but they still suffered some costly injuries. That's just a bad sign. The Warner-is-retiring rumors are swirling and people are starting to talk about Arizona, so they no longer have the "us against the world" thing going for them. People are talking a lot about how no one is talking the Cardinals. And that's kind of like a triple negative, so it's still bad.
Even if Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Anquan Boldin play, they'll still be limited. And Steelers West will need all the healthy talent they can must to win this game.
The Packers have a phenomenal offense and have one of the best passing games in the NFL.
Dom Capers was finally able to get everyone on the same page and their defense is taking full advantage of all the talent they have in the back seven.
Green Bay's a dangerous team and they finished 11-5. They would have been seeded higher if Minnesota wasn't in their division. Every team in the bracket is at least 10-6, so this is a pretty loaded bracket with a lot of great teams, and it just so happens that the dangerous Packers play a wounded Cardinals team that also happens to be the only NFC representative that didn't win 11 games.
Green Bay already had their fluky game this season. They lost 37-36 to the Steelers in Week 15 in one of the craziest, most entertaining games I've ever seen. If the Steelers had made the playoffs, NFL Films would highlight that game as the game that turned their season around. Since the Steelers didn't make the playoffs, that's going to have to be the game that NFL Films highlights as turning Green Bay's season around, because it was too awesome not to be the focus of something. After losing on the last play of a game like that to the reeling Super Bowl champions, your season can go one of two ways: You can turn things around and work harder, or you can give up.
The Packers turned things around, worked harder, crushed the Seahawks and Cardinals in back-to-back weeks, and they're playing without any fear. That means that they won't bow down to the defending conference champs or the one or two seed any more than they did to the defending Super Bowl champs (the Steelers, btw). They also have scored 164 more points than their opponents, which is second in the league in terms of point differential. They're a great team, they just happen to be the fifth seed.
Cowboys at Vikings:
Chris Johnson was the single most unstoppable force in all of fantasy football this year. I was in four leagues and the guy that had Johnson won three of those leagues and finished third in points in the fourth (so it could be argued that he should have won he was just unlucky). The point there is that Johnson was going to get his points and, if you were in a single-elimination tournament with him on your side, the odds favored you winning.
Adrian Peterson is the single most unstoppable force in real football. If he gets enough touches, he'll get his yards and he'll get his points. Every time he touches the ball, the opposing team's fan base holds their breath. He could be bottled up one moment and running over William Gay and sprinting down the sidelines the next. The more times he touches the ball, the more inevitable the opposing team's destruction becomes. He's the best, most explosive player in this bracket, which is a huge advantage for the Vikings.
I mentioned before that DeSean Jackson is the third-most talented and explosive player in the bracket. Percy Harvin is number two and he also plays for the Vikings. That means that Minnesota has the two best players in the AFC bracket. That's like if you had Aaron Rodger and Chris Johnson on your fantasy team. One of the guys in one of my leagues did and he cut a path of destruction all the way through the regular season and playoffs to a championship.
The Vikings have that kind of power. They have two guys on their team that can get the ball in their hands at any time -- Peterson has improved in the passing game and Harvin has been used in the return game, passing game, and running game and excelled in all three of those areas in college -- and make a play that makes you scream, "OH MY GOD HOW DID HE DO THAT HE... OH MY GOD!" And they have Sidney Rice, who quietly gained over 1,300 yards receiving this season to go along with an almost 16 yard per catch average and eight touchdowns. When they get in the red zone, they can get the ball to Rice, Peterson, Harvin, or Visanthe Shiancoe who caught 11 touchdown passes this season.
They have a playmaker at every level of the defense -- Jared Allen and the Williamses on the defensive line, Chad Greenway at linebacker, and Antoine Winfield in the secondary -- and are opportunistic enough to make another team pay for a mistake and good enough to keep the other team's scoring to a minimum.
They are the most complete team left in the league, in either conference. And that's that. Right? No loose ends or anything.
Oh yeah! Brett Favre.
You will meet few people that like Favre less than I do or that have a lower opinion of Favre than I do. But, the big knock on Favre is that his production declined severely towards the end of 2007 and 2008. His last five games of 2007, he had quarterback ratings of 80.6, 40.2, 143.7, 137.6, and 70.7. Yes, he was horrid in the NFC Championship game that year, but he did score 20 points in sub-zero weather conditions, which is six points more than the greatest offense in the history of the NFL scored against that same Giants defense in a dome. In 2007, the Favre-lead Packers finished 13-3 and went to the conference championship. In 2008, the Rodgers-lead Packers finished 6-10 and did not. Yes, Favre sucked hard in 2008, especially late, throwing 30 interceptions and finishing with a 81 quarterback rating. But, Mark Sanchez finished with a 63 quarterback rating in 2009 and threw 20 interceptions. He's 18 years younger than Favre, so maybe that's why his body held up. Favre had five bad games at the end of 2008, posting quarterback ratings of 60.9, 60.8, 61.4, 48.7, and 45.1... but three of those marks are three points or less lower than what Sanchize finished the season with in terms of quarterback rating.
The 2008 Jets finished 9-7 and missed the playoffs. The 2009 Jets finished 9-7 and made the playoffs. Same record, just different circumstances.
When I came into this, I wanted to tear down Favre as well, but the data doesn't support it. Even taking away the past, he's got two playoff games in a dome and the Super Bowl is in Miami. He has a solid defense and the two most explosive offensive players in the bracket on his team. He is second in the league in quarterback rating (107.2) and has thrown 33 touchdowns and only seven interceptions. He's on a roll, the deck is stacked in his favor. That's not my fault.
Packers at Saints:
Here's where my bracket and predictions could fall apart.
If the Eagles beat the Cowboys, then they travel to New Orleans no matter what happens in the Arizona-Green Bay game. I believe that the Vikings can beat either the Cardinals or the Packers -- regardless of which one wins -- but I also believe that the Saints will beat the snot out of Philly. I do not believe that Minnesota can beat New Orleans in the NFC Championship game.
I believe that the Packers can beat the Saints.
Here's how it works...
The Saints deploy a lot of different looks and exotic formations on offense and the Packers have a lot of different looks and exotic formations on defense. The Vikings have one formation and zero exotic looks on defense. New Orleans head coach Sean Payton is exceptionally gifted at being able to recognize the tendencies of a defense. If you have one formation and zero exotic looks he will pick you apart faster than a Marine with an M-16. Capers will not be able to completely stump Payton, but he will be able to slow Payton down.
That will give the Packers enough time to expose the Saints defense. For the first 13 games, the New Orleans defense was pressure-based and opportunistic. They scored on fumble and interception returns and were finally the complement that the Saints offense was looking for. Then the bounces stopped going their way and their old guys started to wear down. It happened to the Steelers this year. There are only so many game-breaking plays you can make on skill alone. Eventually your luck runs out and you're left with what you have.
Now, the Saints don't have a bad defense, they're just not good enough to stop Green Bay. The Packers will score more than they let up and they will go Minnesota for Favre Bowl III.
BUT, this is the game the Saints need to win to make it to the Super Bowl. If the Vikings have to come to New Orleans and the players and fans know that all they need is one win, one game to send this sad sack franchise that has been through hell and back all the way to the promised land... they'll make it happen. They'll shred the Minnesota defense. They'll make so much noise and the players will hit so hard that the stars for the Vikings' ears will bleed. There is no way that the players, the City of New Orleans, and the PR Department for the NFL lets the Saints lose an NFC Championship game in the Big Easy. No. Way.
Packers at Vikings:
This is already a ponderously long entry, so I'll cut to the chase...
- Remember when I said the Vikings were the best, most talented team in the bracket? And they're at home in a dome to protect Favre from the elements? That.
- Remember that thing about beating a team three times in one year? That. The Vikings swept the Packers in division play in the regular season.
I just can't see the Vikings losing as long as they play the NFC Championship game in Minnesota.
That means a Vikings-Chargers Super Bowl.
San Diego is balanced and they have a lot of talent, but they don't have the balance, the talent, or the Super Bowl experience of the Minnesota Vikings.
NFC Champion:
Minnesota Vikings
Super Bowl Champion:
Minnesota Vikings
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