Olympic Hockey Predictions

First of all, I have to say that that was a fantastic game on Sunday. Remember that one five minute stretch in the Stanley Cup final last year where there were no penalties, no stoppages, and no commercials and the Red Wings and Penguins just got to play hockey? Remember how awesome that was? That was what this was like, but for the entire game. It was amazing. OK, part of the fantabulousness of it was that we won, but that was just a high quality hockey game from start to finish.

I was freaking out. I hadn't had a sportsgasm like that since Super Bowl XLIII (which the Steelers won, btw) and I was unable to contain my excitement. I cannot imagine what I'll be like if these two teams face each other this coming Sunday. I think I need to prepare myself.

I'm basically assuming that Canada will beat Slovakia on Friday and that we'll beat Finland. It's dangerous to assume, but the money line for the US beating Finland is -170, with the Finland beating the US at +150, so those are pretty decent odds. Canada is -200 to win the gold and Slovakia is +1200, which means that pretty much everyone thinks Canada is going to the gold medal game and there are good odds that the US will.

I think that Canada is too angry to lose. We have awakened the sleeping giant and his wrath will be horrible. I think that there are too many guys on our squad that want another piece of Canada too badly to lose to Finland. So, Finland and Slovakia play for the bronze, the US and Canada play for the gold.

Here's the thing about that: I'm very, very, very, very hopeful that we'll beat Canada and win the gold, but I don't think it's going to happen. For a number of reasons.

1. "If we play ten times, they may win nine." That means we already won our won game, right?
2. Sleeping giant awakened, wrath horrible.
3. They have stars at every position. The US has a whole bunch of very good players, but they don't have any great players, guys that can take over a game, out on the ice.
4. They have a pretty steep homefield advantage. Like, a crazy homefield advantage. Like, ten times more intense than Lake Placid homefield advantage.
5. In order to win the gold, the US would need to win all six of their Olympic hockey games in a span of 12 days. We got a day's rest for beating Canada and everyone else has had to play games on back-to-back days at some point in the tournament, but the pressure of trying to win six games at this level of competition -- especially with how great the first game was -- has to be almost unbearable.
6. Think of how fast and intense that first game was. Then multiply it by 80,000,000 crazy Canadians, two days of hype, and a worldwide audience. The level of speed and intensity that will be brought on Sunday favors the Canadians because they're more talented.
7. If the US has a chance to win, this will be a close game. If it goes to overtime and is still tied, that means there will be a shootout. If there is a shootout, Mike Babcock can keep rolling Sidney Crosby out there and tell him to win the gold. That. Is. Scary.
8. You saw what they did to Russia, right? That was a deep, talented squad with plenty of star power of its own. Team Canada smoked the Russians 7-3 on Wednesday and, shockingly, it wasn't even that close.
9. We beat up on Brodeur in the first game. Now Luongo is between the pipes. That's a big difference. I'm not saying we can't chase Luongo and get Brodeur back in there -- or possibly Fleury -- but I'm saying that Luongo is a different goalie that brings a different set of skills to the table.
   
10. This is a veteran Olympic team. We're young and inexperienced and, in situations like a gold medal game in front of a hostile crowd, that's going to make a difference.

However, we do have some things going in our favor.

1. Ryan Miller has been playing out of his mind this entire tournament. He stopped 42 shots against Canada the last time these teams played. He is the one great player that we will have on our roster on Sunday. He is the one guy for Team USA that can take over this game. If he does, we stand an excellent chance of winning.
2. Our defensemen are far superior to theirs. Our defensemen are amazing. They block shots, they cover the net, they skate back like nobody's business, and they can score. Having Rafalsky alone gives us an advantage. When you add in Orpik, Jack Johnson, and Ryan Whitney in there, it gets downright unfair.
3. We don't have a star, so we don't have that "one guy" that they can key on. A defenseman (Rafalski) scored two goals in the first game. An unheralded guy like Ryan Malone stood toe-to-toe with the cavalcade of stars for Canada and held his own.
4. If there's one group of guys that can ignore all the big names, the insane homefield advantage, the pressure, the world stage, and the fact that they'll be prohibitive underdogs going into this game, it's this group of guys. They're too young, too dumb, too tough, and, quite frankly, too good and confident to let all the outside factors get to them. They just want to play hockey and win.
5. As much as the Canadians will deflect it, as much as the Americans will deflect it, and as many times as most analysts (who are primarily Canadian) will say that it doesn't matter that we won the first game... it matters. When they line up on Sunday and the puck drops, all the guys on the American side will know that they can beat this team. All the guys on the Canadian side will be thinking about what will happen if they lose again. Deep down, we know that win meant something to our guys, and deep down, that loss meant something to their guys.
6. Do you believe in miracles? Yes. Yes, I believe in miracles.

Still... that's ten reasons for Canada and only six for the US. Really, it's five for the US because the last one isn't a reason so much as it is a belief system. And hope.

My buddy Dan and I were talking today about what we felt America's chances were. Here's how he broke it down:

Gold: 10%
Silver: 60%
Bronze: 25%
No Medal: 5%

But, we decided that, if Canada should somehow lose to Slovakia on Friday, the percentages would adjust thusly:

Gold: 50%
Silver: 35%
Bronze: 15%
No Medal: 0%

So... hope that Slovakia has some upset in them.

I think Canada is too strong, too experienced, too angry, and just too damn good to lose this game. They're just too talented to not win the gold. The only way they get the silver is if Miller takes the game over, our defensemen start to muscle in on their stars late in the game, and we're able to hold on.

I hope we win. I believe we can win. My heart says yes, but my brain says no. The good news is that my predictions have sucked something awful for about year now, so here's hoping I'm wrong.

Skippy and Big Snack

Some stuff has happened with the Steelers since my last post and I wanted to go on record in saying that I'm glad my prediction of a three year deal for Casey Hampton was right. I also want to go on record as saying that I think it's a terrible move. He's 33, he's overweight (though he doesn't have much of an injury history), he's called "Big Snack," and he'll be 36 when his contract is up. Ted Washington notwithstanding, there haven't been a lot of big, fat guys that have stretched their career into their late 30s.

I also don't know what the Steelers are going to do on defense for the next three years. They aren't going to pay Hampton $21 million to sit on the bench and they can't use him as a 4-3 defensive lineman. Granted, even if Aaron Smith comes back fully healed, we don't have enough linemen for a respectable 3-4 defense, but I really would like to be right at some point and have Tomlin switch them to a Cover 2 package. Maybe when LeBeau retires, if that ever happens.

The signing, in my mind, points to the fact that they haven't drafted well in the last few years, they feel as though they don't have a successor to Hampton (apparently Ziggy Hood is not sufficient), and they want to try to keep the championship window open as long as possible. Well, I'm here to say that there isn't much of a window at this point. The Steelers got old in a hurry, they didn't re-stock the cabinets with young talent through the draft, and they've been living on sheer balls, defense, and quarterback play since late 2007. Their run may not come to an end in 2010. They may not need to blow things up until 2011. But some big decisions and big changes are on the way.

I also realized that the other two teams of the decade -- the Colts and Patriots -- are facing a similar issue. They've been able to keep from disintegrating up to this point because they have Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, respectively, but their windows probably won't stretch beyond the 2010 season, either. It will be interesting to see who emerges. Maybe the Jets. Probably someone from the NFC, as they have a lot of young superstars and some great, emerging quarterbacks.

The point is that all good things come to an end. Kevin Colbert may not be back, eventually the old guard is going to retire, and Mike Tomlin will be left with what he's tried to cobble together since he was hired... which isn't much. If they can have two great drafts the next two years and the rookie class from 2009 shows more than they've shown thus far, then they might be OK. They still have a great owner, a passionate fan base, and a franchise quarterback. But, I have a feeling we're in for a rough patch.

Speaking of rough patches, Jeff Reed was franchised after they signed Hampton (teams are allowed to do that once they sign the player that was previously franchised to a long term deal). I think that was a bad move, too.

I love Jeff Reed. I said last year -- right after he missed two kicks against the Bears -- that he gives the Steelers a tremendous advantage at Heinz Field and he's the reason they get three points for playing at home. But he's still a kicker. For every kicker on an NFL roster, there are two guys that could easily take his place. Reed lost a lot of goodwill with Steeler fans after he got arrested, then missed two field goals against the Bears, but he only missed two kicks the rest of the season, so I think he might be pretty good.

But he's not worth $2.8 million. He's not worth $2.5 million. What I think the Steelers should have done was to put the transition tag on him. The transition tag is very similar to the franchise tag in that the player gets a one-year deal for an obscene amount of money (I think it would have been about $2.6 million). But, there's a couple of key differences.

1. A team that signs that player doesn't have to give that player's team any draft choices in compensation. The team's player can still match the contract offer and keep the player, just like with the franchise tag. With the franchise tag, you need to give the player's team two first round choices if you sign him away, which no one is going to give up for a kicker. So, that means that now the Steelers are only bidding against Reed's unrealistic expectations.
2. It isn't considered as prohibitive or as much of an "insult" to the player that gets tagged, so negotiations are usually more amicable.

If they had transition tagged Reed, he would have found the market for his services to be similar to the one that Max Starks saw when the Steelers transition tagged him in 2008. Starks discovered that no one wanted to sign him for big money and played out the rest of the season. But, the Steelers couldn't just cut him loose because he's a left tackle and was too valuable to the team. Again, Jeff Reed is a kicker.

Two things would have happened if they gave Reed the transition tag. Either he would have seen no market for his services and would have signed a more palatable long term deal to avoid getting cut or someone would have offered him a contract. If he was offered a contract that was within reason, the Steelers would have signed him. If he was offered the kind of money he was looking for, he would have signed with that team and there would have been no bad blood. Reed is well-liked and him leaving with bad blood could have caused issues in the locker room.

Now, Omar Khan and Dan Rooney come to the negotiating table with their expectations, Reed's unrealistic expectations, and the general feeling of animosity hanging over the whole thing. Reed doesn't need to report to camp. He doesn't need to play in the preseason. He could fall out of bed tomorrow morning and kick a 50-yarder through the uprights. That means he'll be a distraction all season, probably make way too much money in 2010, and possibly take up another valuable tag next offseason.

I hope they sign him. I want him to retire as a Steeler. They dropped the ball on this one, though, and I think that it could get ugly.

State of the Penguins

Let's make one thing perfectly clear... I have always been against the break in the NHL season for the Olympics.

It makes no sense. Does any other sport break up the season and take two weeks off for the Olympics? No. Now, I think that American Football would make an excellent Olympic event. I think that America would obviously dominate early on -- from a schematic standpoint as well as a talent standpoint -- but I think that, ultimately, the NFL would end up recruiting out of China and Bratislava. That would expand the talent pool. Just like it did in baseball. And basketball. As of 60 years ago, we dominated in those two sports and the officials had to cheat in unholy ways in order for any non-US team to be competitive. But, now, China is the biggest emerging market for the NBA and a number of MLB teams have state-of-the-art training facilities in the Dominican Republic. In 30 years, we could be talking about what a great quarterback Quinyoung Nguyen is instead of talking about the fact that it's great that Hines Ward finally made it.

But... I think that it's just what the doctor ordered for the Penguins this season. They were reeling, they were inconsistent, the specter of the Olympics was hanging over Fleury. They needed a break. They were 7-0 in shootouts before they finally lost one to Nashville. And they lost that game to the Predators because the Predators wanted it more. They wanted to go into the break strong... the Pens just needed a break.

Only five Penguins are in the Olympics. They're only one point out of first place in their division. They must understand that floundering their way through the regular season, then turning it on when the playoffs hit is not a good strategy.

Sure, the Capitals are on the horizon, but they were on the horizon last season and I still trust our guys against their guys in a seven game set.

I think that this is a solid, solid team that just needed to catch their breath. Sure, Malkin, Crosby, and Fleury will play a hundred bajillion games in the next two weeks, but they'll be sure to learn things from their accomplished compatriots. Dan Bylsma and everyone that wasn't invited to Vancouver will be sure to rest, re-charge, and reflect.

This is a critical time for the Penguins and I think they get it done. I think that they will come out of this break focused, angry, and aggressive. Does that equate to another Cup? I have no idea. But I do know that they will come out of this break a better team than they entered it.

And, dammit, when you have three of the 15 best players in the world on your team, that has to count for something.

State of the Steelers

So... I was basically ready to take a huge nap and only post a couple things about the Pens -- taking the occasional break to complain about the Pirates -- and maybe post my March Madness predictions. But, as we've established, my predictions suck.

Then I read this: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=4909876.

As the headline states, the Steelers are looking to self-impose a salary cap for the 2010 season. They intend to be fiscally responsible. And that's cool. But, there are a few things in the article that were kinda glossed over that jumped out at me.

1. Casey Hampton is 33. I realize that, in the Information Age, we are all one Wiki search from learning anything about anyone, but I could've sworn that dude was 31. Now, the Steelers don't tend to sign anyone on the wrong side of 30 to an extension unless they play defense and their name is James. Casey does not have that luxury and Kevin Colbert is probably pretty leery about signing someone to an extension when they're on the wrong side of 30 given how the James Farrior extension worked out in 2009. The interesting thing is that it's possible that Hampton could be tagged. I was not a big fan of the Max Starks tagging and I will not be a big fan of the tagging if Hampton is tagged. Since he's now 33, I don't think he's worth a longterm deal. He's fat and he may not fit into future plans, so it would be unwise to tie too much money into him given the tumultuous climate.
2. Kevin Colbert is not signed beyond 2010. How could this happen? We signed Roethlisberger to an extension when he was signed through like 3014. They'll probably start working on a Tomlin extension soon. Omar Khan, who handles the salary cap, will probably be signed through 2015 at some point even though it looks like there won't be a cap in 2010.
3. OH MY GOD, THERE'S NOT GOING TO BE A CAP IN 2010, THE STEELERS ARE SCREWED. The answer to that statement is "No" on so many levels, but that's a subject for another post. Let's just hope that people are ready to talk about the Collective Bargaining Agreement, because I've been thinking about it since the last one got jammed down the throats of the owners.

But, ultimately, Colbert is right. The Steelers were 9-7 in 2009 and they missed the playoffs. They need to approach the offseason like a 9-7 team that missed the playoffs. Forget the fact that they won Super Bowl XLIII (they did, btw), they have bigger fish to fry in 2010.

The issue -- as is always the issue -- is that they won't be active in free agency. They'll sign some role players and some guys that can contribute on special teams (I hope), but they won't make that big signing that makes headlines unless they sign one of their guys to an extension. And I hope that guy isn't Casey Hampton. I love him, he's great, but he's not worth a four year deal because he'll be 37 at the end of it.

There will be more draft updates and signing updates to come, but the important thing to keep in mind is that the Steelers know that they have a 9-7 team that missed the playoffs. They will make changes.

Stay tuned. Could be an interesting offseason.

Super Bowl

Better late than never, right? It's not too late. The game isn't until tomorrow. I have plenty of time.

But, since I'm writing this article in exile -- I have no power and no Internet at home due to the blizzard of 2010 aka Snowpocalypse and I'm at a bar that has WiFi -- I'll be brief. Well, brief as I can be, which means this will end up being 2,000 words.

I think that this has the potential to be one of the greatest Super Bowls of all time. The Giants-Patriots Super Bowl was great, but that was primarily for schaudenfreud reasons. The Colts-Bears Super Bowl kinda sucked. Super Bowl XL -- aside from the fact that the Steelers won, which I think I may have mentioned -- was a disappointing game. The one before that lacked drama and we had to see Donovan McNabb puke. The one before that was pretty sweet and the rest involved a crappy blowout, the start of the Patriots dynasty, and the hated Ravens hoisting the Lombardi trophy. So, those sucked. That means, counting last year's awesomeness -- and this is not a subjective assessment... Super Bowl XLIII consistently ranks in the top five of all-time great Super Bowls, there were two plays from it in the top ten plays of the Super Bowl for the 00s, and, of course, the Steelers won which I *know* I mentioned -- there have really only been two great games since we all looked like morons for fearing the 21st century. Lots of great storylines, but really only two great games.

In this game, you have two fantastic offenses led by two of the best quarterbacks in the league against two defenses that are, for the most part, pretty much just serviceable. They have their strengths, they have their upside, but... yeah. This isn't a game that's going to be a defensive standoff.

Both teams can score a ton of points. The Saints had the number one scoring offense, the number one passing offense, and the number one offense in terms of yards per game. They're good. They have a lot of weapons. It's interesting to note that Jeremy Shockey -- good and completely crazy as he is -- is the fifth best player on this offense. If Reggie Bush shows up, he can do a lot of damage. Marques Colston is such a big, good red zone target that he was listed as a tight end in most fantasy leagues his rookie year. Devery Henderson is crazy fast. Robert Meachem can do a lot of good things if he isn't playing with his head jammed up his anus.

This defense destroyed and demoralized Brett Favre. By the midpoint, he was slinking around midfield and asking for his binky.

New Orleans has themselves a damn good team and they're making all the jerkoffs that tore their labrums jumping off the Saints bandwagon look like... well, jerkoffs.

But...

The Colts are a great team, too. They're a better team. They're a more complete team. They're a more together team. They've been here before. There are a ton of guys on the roster that were on it when Indianapolis pulled through a crappy win in Super Bowl XLI. That's gonna make a difference in the game. Remember when the Steelers won Super Bowl XL? Both teams were tight, neither team wanted to try to do too much and both teams were trying to do everything. Everyone was nervous and they were pressing, but since everyone was pressing, there were a lot of plays that went without incident. Well, the Colts won't have that issue, but the Saints will. And that's one big difference in this game.

The other big difference is Peyton Manning. In the AFC Championship game, when the Jets had momentum, they had hit on a few big plays, and it seemed like they were going to take the game over, they made one fatal mistake. They didn't bleed enough time off the clock and they didn't score to make it 21-6 at halftime. Manning would not have given up at that point, but at least New York would have had a fighting chance. Instead, they kicked a field goal and gave Manning and the Colts two full minutes to close the gap on a 17-6 score. He proceeded to shred the number one defense in 58 seconds -- and the Jets had a defense that was on par with the 2008 Steelers defense -- and close it to 17-13. And they got the ball in the second half. I'm sure New York felt the noose start to tighten at that point. And they ran some stupid, conservative gameplan at the end of that half. Sure, they could have been gunning to go into the half with the lead, but the subtext was there. They didn't want to go three-and-out and give Manning another 58 seconds to make them look stupid.

Even though the Colts were down 17-13, the game was over. All Manning had to do was take care of business. And he did. And he has. All season. That's what he does. That's all he does! That Manning is out there. He can't be bargained with. He can't be reasoned with. And he absolutely will not stop. Ever. Until you are DEAD. Do you understand?

Peyton Manning is a modern day Terminator. That's all there is to it. He's not human. He's too calculating, too efficient. When he needs to do something, he does it. The only way to stop him is to lead him into the Cyberdyne facilities and crush his CPU.

I can't bet against Peyton Manning. I just can't do it. He has too much at stake. Prior to Super Bowl XLI he was the great stats quarterback that couldn't win it all. Now he has the stats. He has a championship. And he has a chance to cement his legacy with another championship. He cannot fail now. He cannot tarry. If Manning wins another Super Bowl and plays another five years at this level -- or close to this level -- he's the greatest quarterback of all time. Sure, there will always be debates, but he's got four MVPs, one ring (possibly two, maybe more), and every significant passing record on the books (if Favre actually retires and Manning keeps things status quo the next five years). Manning knows what is at stake and he will not allow his team to lose. Ever.

On the basis of experience at this level and the Manning Factor, I am picking the Colts. And I am picking them to cover.

Prediction:
Colts 31, Saints 17