Olympic Hockey Predictions

First of all, I have to say that that was a fantastic game on Sunday. Remember that one five minute stretch in the Stanley Cup final last year where there were no penalties, no stoppages, and no commercials and the Red Wings and Penguins just got to play hockey? Remember how awesome that was? That was what this was like, but for the entire game. It was amazing. OK, part of the fantabulousness of it was that we won, but that was just a high quality hockey game from start to finish.

I was freaking out. I hadn't had a sportsgasm like that since Super Bowl XLIII (which the Steelers won, btw) and I was unable to contain my excitement. I cannot imagine what I'll be like if these two teams face each other this coming Sunday. I think I need to prepare myself.

I'm basically assuming that Canada will beat Slovakia on Friday and that we'll beat Finland. It's dangerous to assume, but the money line for the US beating Finland is -170, with the Finland beating the US at +150, so those are pretty decent odds. Canada is -200 to win the gold and Slovakia is +1200, which means that pretty much everyone thinks Canada is going to the gold medal game and there are good odds that the US will.

I think that Canada is too angry to lose. We have awakened the sleeping giant and his wrath will be horrible. I think that there are too many guys on our squad that want another piece of Canada too badly to lose to Finland. So, Finland and Slovakia play for the bronze, the US and Canada play for the gold.

Here's the thing about that: I'm very, very, very, very hopeful that we'll beat Canada and win the gold, but I don't think it's going to happen. For a number of reasons.

1. "If we play ten times, they may win nine." That means we already won our won game, right?
2. Sleeping giant awakened, wrath horrible.
3. They have stars at every position. The US has a whole bunch of very good players, but they don't have any great players, guys that can take over a game, out on the ice.
4. They have a pretty steep homefield advantage. Like, a crazy homefield advantage. Like, ten times more intense than Lake Placid homefield advantage.
5. In order to win the gold, the US would need to win all six of their Olympic hockey games in a span of 12 days. We got a day's rest for beating Canada and everyone else has had to play games on back-to-back days at some point in the tournament, but the pressure of trying to win six games at this level of competition -- especially with how great the first game was -- has to be almost unbearable.
6. Think of how fast and intense that first game was. Then multiply it by 80,000,000 crazy Canadians, two days of hype, and a worldwide audience. The level of speed and intensity that will be brought on Sunday favors the Canadians because they're more talented.
7. If the US has a chance to win, this will be a close game. If it goes to overtime and is still tied, that means there will be a shootout. If there is a shootout, Mike Babcock can keep rolling Sidney Crosby out there and tell him to win the gold. That. Is. Scary.
8. You saw what they did to Russia, right? That was a deep, talented squad with plenty of star power of its own. Team Canada smoked the Russians 7-3 on Wednesday and, shockingly, it wasn't even that close.
9. We beat up on Brodeur in the first game. Now Luongo is between the pipes. That's a big difference. I'm not saying we can't chase Luongo and get Brodeur back in there -- or possibly Fleury -- but I'm saying that Luongo is a different goalie that brings a different set of skills to the table.
   
10. This is a veteran Olympic team. We're young and inexperienced and, in situations like a gold medal game in front of a hostile crowd, that's going to make a difference.

However, we do have some things going in our favor.

1. Ryan Miller has been playing out of his mind this entire tournament. He stopped 42 shots against Canada the last time these teams played. He is the one great player that we will have on our roster on Sunday. He is the one guy for Team USA that can take over this game. If he does, we stand an excellent chance of winning.
2. Our defensemen are far superior to theirs. Our defensemen are amazing. They block shots, they cover the net, they skate back like nobody's business, and they can score. Having Rafalsky alone gives us an advantage. When you add in Orpik, Jack Johnson, and Ryan Whitney in there, it gets downright unfair.
3. We don't have a star, so we don't have that "one guy" that they can key on. A defenseman (Rafalski) scored two goals in the first game. An unheralded guy like Ryan Malone stood toe-to-toe with the cavalcade of stars for Canada and held his own.
4. If there's one group of guys that can ignore all the big names, the insane homefield advantage, the pressure, the world stage, and the fact that they'll be prohibitive underdogs going into this game, it's this group of guys. They're too young, too dumb, too tough, and, quite frankly, too good and confident to let all the outside factors get to them. They just want to play hockey and win.
5. As much as the Canadians will deflect it, as much as the Americans will deflect it, and as many times as most analysts (who are primarily Canadian) will say that it doesn't matter that we won the first game... it matters. When they line up on Sunday and the puck drops, all the guys on the American side will know that they can beat this team. All the guys on the Canadian side will be thinking about what will happen if they lose again. Deep down, we know that win meant something to our guys, and deep down, that loss meant something to their guys.
6. Do you believe in miracles? Yes. Yes, I believe in miracles.

Still... that's ten reasons for Canada and only six for the US. Really, it's five for the US because the last one isn't a reason so much as it is a belief system. And hope.

My buddy Dan and I were talking today about what we felt America's chances were. Here's how he broke it down:

Gold: 10%
Silver: 60%
Bronze: 25%
No Medal: 5%

But, we decided that, if Canada should somehow lose to Slovakia on Friday, the percentages would adjust thusly:

Gold: 50%
Silver: 35%
Bronze: 15%
No Medal: 0%

So... hope that Slovakia has some upset in them.

I think Canada is too strong, too experienced, too angry, and just too damn good to lose this game. They're just too talented to not win the gold. The only way they get the silver is if Miller takes the game over, our defensemen start to muscle in on their stars late in the game, and we're able to hold on.

I hope we win. I believe we can win. My heart says yes, but my brain says no. The good news is that my predictions have sucked something awful for about year now, so here's hoping I'm wrong.